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40122 - Trick or Treat


I am Niko

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The Valentine's Dinner 40120 was pretty well received and I sold one early for $25 with free shipping and then after it sold out and even with the race to the bottom it was still possible to get $20. Looks like it's still selling around that price. Painting Easter Eggs 40121 didn't seem to get as enthusiastic a reaction and though I got $20 after it sold out but before Easter I struggled to sell the one that I found at my local B&M store after Easter. Recent sales are for $15 on eBay.  Based on how long I saw last year's bat and turkey, I'm not going in heavy on this Halloween set, but I don't think asking for $20 between after they sell out and Halloween is too much to ask for.  Turkey dinner can be made to apply to the Christmas holidays. Last year's snowman and reindeer sold like hotcakes until January. I may definitely try around 20 for those.

I generally agree, but PEE and this years ToT set look WAY better to me when compared to the easter bunny and the bat. It all comes down to the inclusion of minifigs that these have. I sold a bunch of PEE for $20 this year before easter (yes, that sounds gross). This Halloween set will have a two month run before the holiday, which is lots of time for it to in and out of stock at BM stores and LEGO Shop at Home. Pair it with the monster CMF, I say it's perfect timing. $25 each for two months? Maybe a few early on. But $20 each for two months for sure. 

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Okay, so I've picked up a handful of these lately as my "getting started" inventory. Can you guys sanity check me on my expectations I've gleaned from this thread and reading up on what happened with PEE?

I know none of this is set in stone, more looking to confirm/deny that I'm starting to understand the market and how you more experienced folks interpret it.

  • Can expect seasonal sets to go EOL very quickly (3-6 weeks seemed to be the run for PEE)
  • Might get a few early bites (pre-EOL) at a premium above MSRP for those who can't find it nearby
  • Once it hits EOL (3-6 weeks) the market will consistently bear about $20 + S&H
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Dumb question- how and why are these being purchased in such large quantities?

I'd love to know as well.....multiple LEGO Shop at Home accounts? Different shipping addresses?  

 

I'm very much a newbie, but I think I can take a stab at a rough answer and will hope to be corrected by a veteran for my own learning :)

For the "why"...

  • These sets are produced in a limited number because they're just seasonal releases, so there's a built-in scarcity that's greater than normal for most sets.
  • These sets are only available via LEGO stores, either by visiting your local Brick & Mortar (B&M) or online via Shop at Home.  So people who don't have LEGO stores nearby get the short end.
  • Because of the scarcity and the seasonality of the sets, they tend to sell out / go EOL quickly... on the order of weeks or a couple months instead of years.
  • Finally, these sets consistently resell for ~$20 (MSRP is $10)

So even though the magnitude of the price point / profit margin is small -- say a reseller makes a $5 profit per unit after costs -- it's reliable and quick-ish to move and you're still getting a 50% ROI.

For me, I'm in them currently for all of the above reasons and because it seemed like a good place to get started selling sets -- low upfront costs, reliable sales patterns and predictable margins. I don't have several hundred dollars tied up in sets that I have to wait several months or a year to appreciate in value and find out LEGO resale isn't for me.

For the "how"...

This part is a little more intuitive. People may have multiple LEGO Shop at Home accounts. They also may be hitting up multiple LEGO stores in their area. I don't know if there's a limit in the B&M store, but those are easy enough to work around with a little creativity and (perhaps most importantly) paying cash. I was just buying 3 on each visit to a different store this past weekend because I was a little paranoid as it's my first time. Paid cash, wasn't interested in becoming a VIP.

From what I understand, playing with multiple LEGO Shop at Home accounts is a little more complicated because TLG may be cross-referencing names, shipping addresses and credit card info to try and track down people trying to play outside their rules. But, that's easy enough to circumvent for those resourceful enough and properly motivated.

Edited by kenmoorhead
turns out that acronym gets automatically expanded
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Low risk , good margins and people will buy these continuously as they can't just buy 1 off of SAH for $10, they would spend 18ish with tax and shipping.  So there is always value in them from the get go.  Any leftovers you save for the following season and make combos.  

A lot of people aren't like us that buy $75 to get free shipping and promos.  They just want that one small set to put on display for the holiday.

I try to get at least 200 of each seasonal set.  Sometimes not all up front but on the back end at clearance as well for the following year.  Bats at $5 were a great investment last year and are already pulling $15 again.  Combo up with the new one for $35 on a $15 investment.  

Takes a little pre-planning as well to make the combos work.  

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Halloween is far different than Easter and Valentines day.  People spend money on this holiday for decorations.

This set is adorable.  This set is one of the few traditional Lego sets to feature a girl as the main (only) character.  This set will have a limited run as it is seasonal.  This set is a good value at a $9.99 entry point.  This set will be far more collectible than the Monster minifigures are at the end of the day.   The masses, will not be aware of this set as it is limited distribution.

All IMHO but I bought five from SAH and plan to add five more from a B&M store close by.  The pumpkin and the bat were okay but I wasn't moved by them.  This one grabbed at me as soon as I saw it. 

 

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