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10249 - Winter Toy Shop


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That seems a bit of an overreaction. Did you perhaps mean every one?

It was a winner.  Listen people, many of you are here because you are looking for information about investment, reselling, collecting...not LEGO bricks as a simple toy or fun build.  I will tell you t

There was tons of anger a few days back when folks first saw the new set. Some of the ambivalence you're encountering is just because folks have already reached that stage of grieving.  1) Denial

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I have no problem with this re-release, other than the point made by Huskers and a few others about wanting to add to their collection.  What I read is resellers grumbling that their 5 year holds are only worth 370% of the original MSRP and that future sets might appreciate less (say 300%), Well TOO BAD!  There are dozens of big winners out there, including sets from the last 12-24 months and this winter set may no longer be one of them.  Lego is actually clever to rerelease this because they have (presumably) grown significantly in the last 5 years and a lot of their target audience do not have this set and are going to buy it; it's a great set.  I am impressed that Lego kept the cost at $80US because that only represents a 4.9% annual increase from 2009 and this set is a good bargain compared to other similarly sized sets and you get a lot of play for that $80.

This hurts a minority of consumers, primarily those interested in 5-10 year holds with large quantities, but if we look at the big picture, instead of the myopic reseller view, we can see that Lego is not going to rerelease everything after 2-3 years and all of the updated sets have been released far enough in the future for the majority to cash in the original sets at a substantial profit to reinvest. 

I looked through some popular sets and the only major downside is that the newer releases are appreciating at a slower rate than the older sets and resellers will simply have to adapt and sell their 40% CAGR sets for some 25% CAGR sets.  It's a little more work and a little less return but the sky isn't falling.  I simply hope that next year's winter set is a new one so that I may add to my scene and I suppose I need to dust off an old set to prepare for eBay as I don't see a reason to keep it any longer.

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With more and more new lego enthusiasts being born every day.  I see nothing wrong with this release.  Most people have never seen this set and it is a very nice set to combine with SW. 

I would be annoyed if I had a bunch unsold, however, we don't run the show.  Lego runs the show.  I diversify and try to mitigate my risk.

 

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I have no problem with this re-release, other than the point made by Huskers and a few others about wanting to add to their collection.  What I read is resellers grumbling that their 5 year holds are only worth 370% of the original MSRP and that future sets might appreciate less (say 300%), Well TOO BAD!  There are dozens of big winners out there, including sets from the last 12-24 months and this winter set may no longer be one of them.  Lego is actually clever to rerelease this because they have (presumably) grown significantly in the last 5 years and a lot of their target audience do not have this set and are going to buy it; it's a great set.  I am impressed that Lego kept the cost at $80US because that only represents a 4.9% annual increase from 2009 and this set is a good bargain compared to other similarly sized sets and you get a lot of play for that $80.

This hurts a minority of consumers, primarily those interested in 5-10 year holds with large quantities, but if we look at the big picture, instead of the myopic reseller view, we can see that Lego is not going to rerelease everything after 2-3 years and all of the updated sets have been released far enough in the future for the majority to cash in the original sets at a substantial profit to reinvest. 

I looked through some popular sets and the only major downside is that the newer releases are appreciating at a slower rate than the older sets and resellers will simply have to adapt and sell their 40% CAGR sets for some 25% CAGR sets.  It's a little more work and a little less return but the sky isn't falling.  I simply hope that next year's winter set is a new one so that I may add to my scene and I suppose I need to dust off an old set to prepare for eBay as I don't see a reason to keep it any longer.

All good and fun for people without 10199.  I wonder what happen should LEGO "update" HH in say fall 2018 for the same reasons. (That is 6 years after release, just to be consistent with WVTS).  :devil:

Not that I want that to happen, but now it cannot be discounted as possibility.

 

Obligatory DISCLAIMER: I am NOT saying they are going to rehash HH in 2018 for real.  I have no idea what LEGO is going to do.

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Just my two cents here:  I get how literally everyone feels.  

Everybody likes new stuff.  That's easy.  

People who are still holding lots of the OG Toy Shop are upset.  Also easy.

 And people who don't have and don't want to shell out $200 for the OG Toy Shop are secretly happy that they will now be able to get it for $80 or less, and a newer updated version to boot.

Everybody's feelings are valid when derived from all of the above positions.  But the "I hate Lego now" and "this is bull****" posts are a little dramatic, aren't they?

Let's not get all Taylor Swift on TLG here.  

Cuz baby now we've got Bad Blood....?

We all still love Lego.

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Such a win win for lego.

If all the resellers/hoarders/investors decide NOT to buy, maybe it was their intention. Doesnt matter, because they will sell tons of it around Christmas on a set that doesn't take too much time and effort to set up.
If all the resellers/hoarders/investors decide to buy, then its more money for Lego.  

This game has just gotten tougher.

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I will be watching closely whether this appears to be a good seller, or whether it withers on the vine since as a rehash.  If it sells, I would guess more rehashes other old, popular sets will come.  If it sits, I bet TLG strongly reconsiders putting out more rehashes.

 

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I will be watching closely whether this appears to be a good seller, or whether it withers on the vine since as a rehash.  If it sells, I would guess more rehashes other old, popular sets will come.  If it sits, I bet TLG strongly reconsiders putting out more rehashes.

 

New resellers will be buying this like crazy...

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Lego have quoted on their facebook page that this release is not an indication of future re-releases or set updates.

So...don't panic, it's not going to happen to every big set.

 

Yeah sure! With that message they leave us all in insecurity. Which is worse than knowing your faith.

The most dangerous side of this is what our customer base or target group will do with this knowledge. Would they not think twice before spending big $ on a retired set? Thinking maybe Lego could do a remake in a couple of years? If the new Death Star will become also a copy of the current one we can close the lights and go home.

I was already pissed about the Technic Truck and all the other "refreshes". Indeed it seems the designers are suffering from a designers block. Makes me feel like I did not get the memo and Lego went public on the stock market. Then you could expect these pathetic actions.

I find this rehash/refresh/remake rather disgusting! I do not own the old one. And will certainly not buy the new one. I will boycot this set. Hopefully other true resellers and investors will follow my lead. So we can get a sense and idea of our influence and market share. So maybe they will stop to this ridiculous and pathetic actions.

 

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I would think that it is easier for lego to rehash a small to mid size set with commonly used parts. It will be much harder for lego to rehash a large sets with rare parts.

LEGO can easily substitute the "rare" parts with new and improved parts. Problem solved

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I would think that it is easier for lego to rehash a small to mid size set with commonly used parts. It will be much harder for lego to rehash a large sets with rare parts.

I think the only true rare parts are the ones using the old colors, most notably grey and light grey.

Newer parts from 2007 that are rare, can easily be created by Lego if they so choose.

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Okay some fair points, the designer did redesign a couple areas of the house, the tree inside & out (including more decor), and added the toys originally 'wrapped' in version one of the set. The life preservers as wreaths not only looks but works better than the standard 2x2 circle plate. The minifigures have all been updated (plus an additional has been added to the roster) and the refresh makes them look like they belong in the scene together more so. The carolers now actually look like they are singing whereas before their gaping mouths were more like getting ready to blow out a candle on a birthday cake and I remembered the male caroler in the first version was wearing an airline jacket with airplane logo & all. Here he is wearing a nicer formal attire suit instead. Last item is having printed pieces over stickers or nothing at all like before. For example that dual-sided "Toy Shop" flag complete with printing is good.

With all the high points out of the way despite what was done, I simply am not seeing enough changes considered drastic enough to warrant such a price increase and the "inflation" talk can't really be the end all answer. Comparing the two designs (original and tweaked), the updated version does feature a lot more printed elements than the former (all minifigures and a few pieces in the build). Still I'm not sure that could account for the higher retail on pretty much the same design really though and the brick separator has become such a common tool stuck in just about any set above a certain retail anymore.

For persons who missed out the first time around this is a great chance but for the rest patiently waiting to see what "this year's" Winter Village set could have been is kind of a bummer to say the least. ....However, looking at the large volume of different designs across the board LEGO has already released and is going to in these coming final months plus the odd "sweet" rumor for another sort of Winter Village build, there may yet still be a chance for the real this year's Winter Village set and this tweaked Toy Shop may merely be a special side run but not the main course.

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