10221 - UCS: Super Star Destroyer

[JRandall]

4 hours ago, jaisonline said:

Many of us feel only a couple of post-2012 retired NISB sets have the potential to appreciate remotely close to many of the sets introduced in the 2000s (Taj Mahal, Grand Carousel, ISD, Cafe Corner, etc...).  

10221 SSD is one of them.   Some folks forget that it took years for most of the 2000s sets to apprefiste dramatically.  So it wouldn't surprise me if the SSD needed 18-24 more months to see consistent global sales of $1000 / €1200 (excluding postage ) and then keep increasing steadily each yr.

That seems counter-intuitive to what has been seen on Ebay last year. It was selling in the 9's and near $1,000 but now it's hitting the mid 700s/low 800s the last several months with an outlier every now and then. The value of the SSD has begun dropping, and the counterfeits are listed in much larger amounts and selling much more often.

[Ma-gic]

Many of us feel only a couple of post-2012 retired NISB sets have the potential to appreciate remotely close to many of the sets introduced in the 2000s (Taj Mahal, Grand Carousel, ISD, Cafe Corner, etc...).  
10221 SSD is one of them.   Some folks forget that it took years for most of the 2000s sets to apprefiste dramatically.  So it wouldn't surprise me if the SSD needed 18-24 more months to see consistent global sales of $1000 / €1200 (excluding postage ) and then keep increasing steadily each yr.

If one has a big stash, perhaps it's time to de-risk and keeping a no. of sets for potential future rise...it's all dependent what is the person risk appetite.
To the poster initial question, at the current buy in price it would probably too risky to hope for a 2x current buy in.

[carini26]

5 minutes ago, JRandall said:

That seems counter-intuitive to what has been seen on Ebay last year. It was selling in the 9's and near $1,000 but now it's hitting the mid 700s/low 800s the last several months with an outlier every now and then. The value of the SSD has begun dropping, and the counterfeits are listed in much larger amounts and selling much more often.

Which is why I don't think anyone can confidently answer original question until case has been decided.  There will always be purists who will pay to get their hands on it, but charts have stalled since copycats were introduced and overall demand seems to be waning despite tightening supply.

[Val-E]

32 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

hi all,  thanks for the recent input.  bogus bricks is here and we are all aware of its impact. .  let's just please remember to not go too deep here (and other set specific topics) as we do have a topic specific for it.

going back to the original post, @NIevo asked, "What would be a safe price to buy this at to have a chance to still double your money in a couple years?  Most I see are in that $800-$900 range right now."

 

I´d say 100 euros/Usd  buy-in would be a safe price to double your money in a couple of years. The reason why has already been mentioned above and I am already losing buyers directly because of it - and SSD buyers are not exactly present in their thousands. Game over.

[Lego Templar]

I realize this set is getting up there in price, but the MF and ISS are way out of my price range.  What would be a safe price to buy this at to have a chance to still double your money in a couple years?  Most I see are in that $800-$900 range right now.
 

Safe price would have been around 300. Highest I would say would be RRP of 400. I don't see TLG remaking this set. Death Stars, X wings, etc yes but not this set. It's one of my favorites but it has what 3-4 mins of air time if that. I can see this set going higher but as we all mentioned with "cheaper remakes" it's hard for the average person to spend 1,000 when there is other cheaper options.

I see the set going higher than 1,000 but I don't think it's going to happen any time soon. Like 4-5 years soon....money is best spent elsewhere. Maybe because I am newer and have "fresh eyes" I would never buy this set for investment purposes. I would rather have spent that 400 on 10 sets and sell for 100-150% profit and rinse and repeat. Space, shipping cost, time, etc. I only have a few UCS ties like 8 and I only bought those because I got them for 125-130 each.

I would just pass on this the ship has sailed and unless you want it for personal I would spend that money else where. It doesn't seem to be as easy as the "good old days" people talk about but if you're smart and think outside the box there is money to be made..like my SuperGirl part out idea.

[ZULU]

25 minutes ago, Lego Templar said:

 

Safe price would have been around 300. Highest I would say would be RRP of 400. I don't see TLG remaking this set. Death Stars, X wings, etc yes but not this set. It's one of my favorites but it has what 3-4 mins of air time if that. I can see this set going higher but as we all mentioned with "cheaper remakes" it's hard for the average person to spend 1,000 when there is other cheaper options.

I see the set going higher than 1,000 but I don't think it's going to happen any time soon. Like 4-5 years soon....money is best spent elsewhere. Maybe because I am newer and have "fresh eyes" I would never buy this set for investment purposes. I would rather have spent that 400 on 10 sets and sell for 100-150% profit and rinse and repeat. Space, shipping cost, time, etc. I only have a few UCS ties like 8 and I only bought those because I got them for 125-130 each.

I would just pass on this the ship has sailed and unless you want it for personal I would spend that money else where. It doesn't seem to be as easy as the "good old days" people talk about but if you're smart and think outside the box there is money to be made..like my SuperGirl part out idea.

 

Let's hope TLG can protect its brand a bit better. 

Megablocks and the like have never been this good price/quality as the Chinese monster-copycat. 

Still, the SSD will do well because its audiance is still LEGO fan collectors. I can't see many coming out of their DARK AGE to step over to the DARK SIDE

may the force be with TLG and its resellers...

Edited January 11, 2017 by ZULU

[newbie77]

this set would have breached $1500 US long time ago had it not been the cheaper version #75055.

TLG will always release some sort of named "destroyer" be it imperial or star or whatever. as long as they do there would be some sort of pressure on this because of its price.

there is a decent inventory of this in the market. for a set priced over $1k there are over 62 sellers in amazon, and most with multiple copies. so there is around 1000 copies readily available. until that number comes down to about 100 price will not be increasing significantly.

Edited January 11, 2017 by newbie77

[newbie77]

3 hours ago, jaisonline said:

hi all,  thanks for the recent input.  bogus bricks is here and we are all aware of its impact. .  let's just please remember to not go too deep here (and other set specific topics) as we do have a topic specific for it.

going back to the original post, @NIevo asked, "What would be a safe price to buy this at to have a chance to still double your money in a couple years?  Most I see are in that $800-$900 range right now."

 

if you are willing to bet on

a. lego never (re)makes another destroyer

then probably your money may reach $1500-$1550 in about 3 years i.e. 2020 June/July.  [ that's based on 1unit/week sales at amazon to absorb the 1000 available hence the remaining unit in the wild may get their deserving appreciation ]

chances of (a) is very very rare because TLG will come up with another destroyer no matter what. which means that this set reaching $1500+ range will only happen if there is higher demand for this set due to some other factor. 

Edited January 11, 2017 by newbie77

[LegoBro]

I think these buyers of clones are buying partly on impulse. They want it really bad and don't have the cash to shell out 500 to 1k on the set. They don't think about resale value. I've seen multiple clone used sets on local apps trying to offload their clones and they get no buyers. They may buy one clone. I doubt they go back for another. Going back to the SSD. Love the set. Bought it on the secondary market. May be worth less now, but I would have no problems reselling it. Can't say that for the clones.

[Val-E]

Depends on what the person wants and their principles. 1000 USD can get you a full UCS clone collection or an SSD and half an X wing.

Some folk hate clones, some folk hate resellers. All I know is that every clone sold is an opportunity to sell an original lost as I doubt many people are getting both.

[Alfiepops]

13 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Depends on what the person wants and their principles. 1000 USD can get you a full UCS clone collection or an SSD and half an X wing.

Some folk hate clones, some folk hate resellers. All I know is that every clone sold is an opportunity to sell an original lost as I doubt many people are getting both.

Clone Wars?

[newbie77]

16 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Depends on what the person wants and their principles. 1000 USD can get you a full UCS clone collection or an SSD and half an X wing.

Some folk hate clones, some folk hate resellers. All I know is that every clone sold is an opportunity to sell an original lost as I doubt many people are getting both.

well said!

[JRandall]

14 minutes ago, LegoBro said:

I think these buyers of clones are buying partly on impulse. They want it really bad and don't have the cash to shell out 500 to 1k on the set. They don't think about resale value. I've seen multiple clone used sets on local apps trying to offload their clones and they get no buyers. They may buy one clone. I doubt they go back for another. Going back to the SSD. Love the set. Bought it on the secondary market. May be worth less now, but I would have no problems reselling it. Can't say that for the clones.

I don't think they are buying on impulse.  There is a minimal number of buyers who are buying to store or display a brand new mint box at premium price tag in an unopened collection. I should know as I dumped several SSD's before the holidays and people are snapping up "clones" instead.  SSD were 750-800 about a year after it's retirement, but since most of LEGOs major sets have been copied due to opening Chinese factories, ALL the values are decreasing. The time to get out of the reselling business if you've built up a collection is getting closer by the month, unless you're rich and it doesn't matter because it's throwaway money.

 

You say you'd have no problems reselling the SSD, of course not if you drop your price below your buy-in because you're selling a used set. You'd be lucky to get $500 on a used SSD on fleabay these days. The clones are selling all day long as shown by the Ebay sold data.  If I'm a fan of large lego sets, unless I'm a wealthy collector who wants unopened boxes, why would I purchase even one of these used sets when I could purchase my dream collection of Star Wars, Modular, Disney, Porsche etc sets and get it all to build and display for under $1000 total, or like Val-E said I can purchase 1, maybe 2 sets of the real thing. You can get perfect replicas of the $300 Porsche for literally $50-60 bucks. LEGO has only done this to themselves and there seems to be a new copy every other week.

[Ed Mack]

Don't call them clones.  They are illegal and counterfeit products that are made using stolen designs.

[Val-E]

4 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Don't call them clones.  They are illegal and counterfeit products that are made using stolen designs.

They are not illegal until a judge says so. Lance Armstrong´s  rules and ebay/amazon are playing y them.

[ZULU]

6 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Don't call them clones.  They are illegal and counterfeit products that are made using stolen designs.

problem is that TLG isn't very vocal about their actions. 

I actually heard the rumor that they provided the molds to the main 'cloner' to access indirectly the Chinese market as long as the new production site wasn't finished to service that market... 

[Ciglione]

1 minute ago, ZULU said:

problem is that TLG isn't very vocal about their actions. 

I actually heard the rumor that they provided the molds to the main 'cloner' to access indirectly the Chinese market as long as the new production site wasn't finished to service that market... 

Fender, the famous guitar brand, did the same. 

They launched another cheaper brand to service the poor. 

[Ed Mack]

6 minutes ago, Val-E said:

They are not illegal until a judge says so. Lance Armstrong´s  rules and ebay/amazon are playing y them.

Sounds like you are a fan.

[Ed Mack]

8 minutes ago, ZULU said:

problem is that TLG isn't very vocal about their actions. 

I actually heard the rumor that they provided the molds to the main 'cloner' to access indirectly the Chinese market as long as the new production site wasn't finished to service that market... 

Fake news.

[Val-E]

Just now, Ed Mack said:

Sounds like you are a fan.

No, I´m a realist and that is the real situation from a legal standpoint.

From an AFOL and reseller standpoint, it is all very disappointing as it is devaluing the brand and my portfolio but it is what it is.

Look forward to seeing TLG financial results for 2016.

[Ed Mack]

Just now, Val-E said:

No, I´m a realist and that is the real situation from a legal standpoint.

From an AFOL and reseller standpoint, it is all very disappointing as it is devaluing the brand and my portfolio but it is what it is.

Look forward to seeing TLG financial results for 2016.

The way you discuss them, you give them legitimacy.  Spin it any way you want, they are STOLEN designs.

[JRandall]

23 minutes ago, ZULU said:

problem is that TLG isn't very vocal about their actions. 

I actually heard the rumor that they provided the molds to the main 'cloner' to access indirectly the Chinese market as long as the new production site wasn't finished to service that market... 

It's always pay to play in China.  This is common knowledge in the business community.  Look at the Apple replicas HUAWIE,, replica steel, replica business furniture, the list goes on and on.  They copied the Iphone, rebranded it, then years later have now started to push Apple out of their economy in order to reap all the profits on stolen designs.The only way LEGO group can beat this is to redesign iconic sets more regularly and drop the prices of most of their larger sets in the American and European markets.

Edited January 11, 2017 by JRandall

[Sfcommando14]

To the criminal discussion private group!  To the bubble thread!  Anywhere but here!  Poor @Alpinemaps only has 1 mop and 1 bucket...

[Val-E]

It´s the selling platforms who don´t take down the ads despite people like me reporting them that are giving them legitimacy. Customs and Excise are not doing anything either.

In business that´s how it works - steal ideas and make money till someone takes you to court. If you lose, close the company and start a new one, if you win, others will do the same to you.

Perhaps there is a different mentality in some countries - southern Europe has always been more lax about these things and it happened with bootleg records back in the day.

Certainly here, people (mostly) look for a good price and don´t have any compunction about the origins of the product.

1 minute ago, Sfcommando14 said:

To the criminal discussion private group!  To the bubble thread!  Anywhere but here!  Poor @Alpinemaps only has 1 mop and 1 bucket...

There are a lot of turds to mop up too.

[Ed Mack]

18 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Certainly here, people (mostly) look for a good price and don´t have any compunction about the origins of the product.

 

Speak for yourself.