10221 - UCS: Super Star Destroyer

[mudcatsfan]

The SSD has competition.  Notably, to reach some of these values ($1500?  $2000?), you're in direct competition with 10030, unless it starts rocketing higher at the same time.  Note that with 10030 it took about a decade post-EOL to reach the current ~$1400 (going by brickpicker's database).  

 

I could be wrong here, but didn't the UCS SD 10030 have a much longer shelf life than the UCS SSD ? BrickSet says OVER 6 years to just under 3 years? Obviously the reselling crowd now is MUCH more active than during the SSD run, but that's a significant factor if we're going to speculate on rarity.

[GhostDad]

I could be wrong here, but didn't the UCS SD 10030 have a much longer shelf life than the UCS SSD ? BrickSet says OVER 6 years to just under 3 years? Obviously the reselling crowd now is MUCH more active than during the SSD run, but that's a significant factor if we're going to speculate on rarity.

Someone who's been around longer than I could answer that more definitively.  However, from statements by long-time investors on this forum, I was under the impression that 6212 set the all-time shelf life record at 6 years (10188 now tied), and that prior to 2006 no set had much exceeded the "standard" two-year shelf life.

 

Also, brickset seems confused about 10030 (at least, either brickset or brickpicker are wrong; they can't both be right).  Brickset says 10030 availability at LEGO Shop at Home was from 2007 -2008, while brickpicker's database says the set was released in 2002.  I think you got the six year lifespan from subtracting 2008 - 2002 (in other words, combining the two databases).  Here's brickset's entry:

 

http://brickset.com/sets/10030-1/Imperial-Star-Destroyer

[MartinP]

Someone who's been around longer than I could answer that more definitively.  However, from statements by long-time investors on this forum, I was under the impression that 6212 set the all-time shelf life record at 6 years (10188 now tied), and that prior to 2006 no set had much exceeded the "standard" two-year shelf life.

 

Also, brickset seems confused about 10030 (at least, either brickset or brickpicker are wrong; they can't both be right).  Brickset says 10030 availability at LEGO Shop at Home was from 2007 -2008, while brickpicker's database says the set was released in 2002.  I think you got the six year lifespan from subtracting 2008 - 2002 (in other words, combining the two databases).  Here's brickset's entry:

 

http://brickset.com/sets/10030-1/Imperial-Star-Destroyer

Brickset's entry is incorrect. From my research, they started tracking the availability of sets in 2007, which would explain why they say 2007 - 2008.

[Quacs]

And then there's the risk of not investing in the most iconic SW lego set ever made. 10188 is mirroring 10211 and 10220 almost exactly in inventory performance, and both are more or less following a few months behind 10221 in showing the same patterns of availability and Target reselleresque pricing changes. Most seem to think 10211 and 10220 are on their way out. The same opinion seemed to hold for 10188 until Brickshow revealed that an anonymous source said it would be around for another year and a half. I think that pretty much sums up the last dozen or so pages on the DS EOL thread. I have never criticized Brickshow's "credibility" on any set other than 10188, but when weighing verifiable evidence (inventory and price changes) versus a single anonymous source, I choose the former. I don't think Brickshow is lying; they're just reporting what they've heard. I would feel the same about 10188 if Brickshow's source had reported directly to me instead. In my opinion, verifiable evidence always beats one individual's prediction, including my own. I've admitted multiple times that I was wrong about the SSD retiring in the spring. I don't want to make the same mistake again.

I think you're spot on, and it will probably do well. I just think other sets (10220 and 10221 in particular) are surer bets, so I put some cash in those.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

[hendrikdejager]

Sitting on four already and you guys make me think of buying even more... should i buy two more at

[darin]

Sitting on four already and you guys make me think of buying even more... should i buy two more at

[holleman67]

Sitting on four already and you guys make me think of buying even more... should i buy two more at

[GhostDad]

Sitting on four already and you guys make me think of buying even more... should i buy two more at

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

I could be wrong here, but didn't the UCS SD 10030 have a much longer shelf life than the UCS SSD ? BrickSet says OVER 6 years to just under 3 years? Obviously the reselling crowd now is MUCH more active than during the SSD run, but that's a significant factor if we're going to speculate on rarity.

 

I don't think you can even compare the two. There are less 10030 out there then some lego sets that were only out two years. Look at Ebay listings and you will see that. Its just not the same.

 

But there are more people into Lego too. And more to come.

[Neosphinx]

Sitting on four already and you guys make me think of buying even more... should i buy two more at

[newbie77]

I think you're spot on, and it will probably do well. I just think other sets (10220 and 10221 in particular) are surer bets, so I put some cash in those.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

there would be more competition with 10220 and 10211 just because of the low price of entry... beside other factors.

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

there would be more competition with 10220 and 10211 just because of the low price of entry... beside other factors.

 

While this is true, there are more buyers at the lower price point too.

[trekgate502]

I think all this hypothecating has gotten to me.

 

Everyone is right.

 

Lego 10221 SSD will not do well, it will do terrible.

 

Get out of the SSD market.

 

Sell your SSD's at raw cost to me to avoid the crash.

 

No one will want it and it will not appreciate in value.

 

I hear Emazers has a warehouse full of these things he can't be right?  Don't mess up like Ed Mack, Emazers or me (smaller scale of course).

 

Admiral Ackbar says its a trap.

 

Soon everyone will be saying "turn the machines back on" like in Trading Places.

 

(this is all a joke if you did not realize it).

 

 

 

I am a believer in this set.

[Undercover Boss]

I think all this hypothecating has gotten to me.

 

Everyone is right.

 

Lego 10221 SSD will not do well, it will do terrible.

 

Get out of the SSD market.

 

Sell your SSD's at raw cost to me to avoid the crash.

 

No one will want it and it will not appreciate in value.

 

I hear Emazers has a warehouse full of these things he can't be right?  Don't mess up like Ed Mack, Emazers or me (smaller scale of course).

 

Admiral Ackbar says its a trap.

 

Soon everyone will be saying "turn the machines back on" like in Trading Places.

 

(this is all a joke if you did not realize it).

 

 

 

I am a believer in this set.

 

You took the words out of my mouth.

[GhostDad]

I think all this hypothecating has gotten to me.

 

Everyone is right.

 

Lego 10221 SSD will not do well, it will do terrible.

 

Get out of the SSD market.

 

Sell your SSD's at raw cost to me to avoid the crash.

 

No one will want it and it will not appreciate in value.

 

I hear Emazers has a warehouse full of these things he can't be right?  Don't mess up like Ed Mack, Emazers or me (smaller scale of course).

 

Admiral Ackbar says its a trap.

 

Soon everyone will be saying "turn the machines back on" like in Trading Places.

 

(this is all a joke if you did not realize it).

 

 

 

I am a believer in this set.

Oh, I see.  I was totally with you until I got to the part where it was all a joke...  Seriously, though, the question now is not whether SSD was a great deal at $320, or $400.  Obviously it was.  But at this point, you can't buy it for MSRP, or anything close.  The question is whether you should be picking it up at ~$700 instead of buying other soon to be retired sets at MSRP.  Is it really so crazy to think that 6 x GE beats 1 x SSD?

[Cashmoney-0]

Theoretically let's just say the GE and DS retire at the end of this year. Two years from now, where do you see each set?

[trekgate502]

Oh, I see.  I was totally with you until I got to the part where it was all a joke...  Seriously, though, the question now is not whether SSD was a great deal at $320, or $400.  Obviously it was.  But at this point, you can't buy it for MSRP, or anything close.  The question is whether you should be picking it up at ~$700 instead of buying other soon to be retired sets at MSRP.  Is it really so crazy to think that 6 x GE beats 1 x SSD?

 

Fairpoint GhostDad.

 

I might still get some at $600-700 but when holleman67 sold a GE today for $250 and the thing is still being sold retail for $149 you may have a point.

I do not see $5,000 for the SSD but I do see $1,500 for it and possibly $2,500 in time.

If your wanting shorter term gains then 4 GE's would probably beat a $700 SSD.

If your wanting long term gains the reverse may or may not be true.

 

Cheers.

[Undercover Boss]

Oh, I see.  I was totally with you until I got to the part where it was all a joke...  Seriously, though, the question now is not whether SSD was a great deal at $320, or $400.  Obviously it was.  But at this point, you can't buy it for MSRP, or anything close.  The question is whether you should be picking it up at ~$700 instead of buying other soon to be retired sets at MSRP.  Is it really so crazy to think that 6 x GE beats 1 x SSD?

 

It all depends on your risk tolerance.....would you chase after a train after it has left the station.  If you consider yourself an experienced runner you would, otherwise there will be another train departing soon.

[Quacs]

there would be more competition with 10220 and 10211 just because of the low price of entry... beside other factors.

 

10221 (SSD), not 10211 - the same MSRP as DS.

 

Agreed with more competition on 10220, but I also agree with DNIIM's point.  I also love the fact that this set has routinely sold for over MSRP on eBay.

[trekgate502]

Theoretically let's just say the GE and DS retire at the end of this year. Two years from now, where do you see each set?

 

There are so many GE's stockpiled I see a $150 GE heading to $300 in 2 years.

I see a $400 DS heading to $800 in 2 years.

So I actually see the ROI on them if they both retired today for the next couple of years the same.

I think there are far more GE's stockpiled than Fire Brigades but still that is a discussion we probably don't want to get into.

I have plenty of GE's though.

[Darth_Raichu]

I think all this hypothecating has gotten to me.

 

Everyone is right.

 

Lego 10221 SSD will not do well, it will do terrible.

 

Get out of the SSD market.

 

Sell your SSD's at raw cost to me to avoid the crash.

 

No one will want it and it will not appreciate in value.

 

I hear Emazers has a warehouse full of these things he can't be right?  Don't mess up like Ed Mack, Emazers or me (smaller scale of course).

 

Admiral Ackbar says its a trap.

 

Soon everyone will be saying "turn the machines back on" like in Trading Places.

 

(this is all a joke if you did not realize it).

 

 

 

I am a believer in this set.

 

I dig the reverse psychology

[GhostDad]

It all depends on your risk tolerance.....would you chase after a train after it has left the station.  If you consider yourself an experienced runner you would, otherwise there will be another train departing soon.

You got me there.  I would definitely wait for the next train.  The Tortoise and the Hare was always my favorite story as a kid (The Ant and the Grasshopper was a close second).

[33Lego]

another 100 or so posts and we will take over 4*4 Crawler. Yeah!

[biniou]

Brickset says 10030 availability at LEGO Shop at Home was from 2007 -2008, while brickpicker's database says the set was released in 2002.  I think you got the six year lifespan from subtracting 2008 - 2002 (in other words, combining the two databases).  Here's brickset's entry:

 

http://brickset.com/sets/10030-1/Imperial-Star-Destroyer

 

10030 SD has been available on October 1st 2002 ($299 on LEGO Shop at Home)

Because the very first posts I found on google are from October 1st 2002.

I simply did a google research, choosing the period of time.

So brickpicker is right. Hail to BP !

 

Here is a screenshots for the "pics are it did not happen" fans.

 

 

 

 

Note: I don't know when it has been retired.

[bdoubleg]

For the last few years i have bought a couple of every set i have been buying - mainly smaller SW and superhero sets and flipping them quite quickly to fund my personal collection of lego. Now want to invest a little more and have been staring at 2 SSD in my bag on the UK lego site for the last few hours - just nervous about the out lay. Just need a bit of encouragement to hit the buy button. I know it is a good investment just a big jump for me.