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79018 - The Lonely Mountain


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Of course it is still early (or not yet even) in the "EOL" stage for all sets in this theme but you are correct that overall it has not been too good investment-wise.

By CAGR in the database, Shelob's Lair (25%) and Mirkwood Elf Army are the leaders thus far. Mirkwood Spiders has really taken off lately, Lake Town Chase got a huge bump over the holidays, and Unexpected Gathering is finally starting its inevitable climb as well. ToO speaks for itself.

The first four are very roughly double MSRP on eBay last I checked. Why those? The minifigs tell the main story, if you ask me - especially after the final Hobbit movie.

But to address your question, is any of this performance "good"? For the pair of wave 2 Hobbit sets, I would argue yes. They can still be found in the occasional Walmart for up to 50% off and are fetching ~4x that. But it really depends on when they plateau, of course.

On the subject of minifigs, Lonely Mountain has five exclusive version minifigs in addition to the big fire-breathing star of the show, including the three dwarves that "matter" in the movie besides Thorin. Perhaps more importantly, it represents the point of the whole dang story from start to finish. For purists, very little of that other "5 armies" spectacle was in the book, and none of the Dol Guldur business. Of course this probably won't matter a great deal but it is something to think about long term.

Helm's Deep is not a great comparison, in my opinion, though arguably the closest between the two sibling themes. It did do quite well initially after becoming unavailable, but plateau'd very quickly too. Holidays and all that...

It only has 3 exclusive minifigs out of 8 total, by the way, two of which are comparable to the Lonely Mountain dwarves in terms of being "second tier" important characters. No super-villain-huge-awesome-guy to carry the set at all. And unlike Hulk, we know we will never see another Lego Smaug.

Furthermore, despite a very solid design, Helm's Deep suffers from "lots of grey bricks" syndrome. The Lonely Mountain does not. It is colorful and therefore more unique.

Finally, Helm's Deep is just not iconic enough to represent LotR the way Lonely Mountain represents The Hobbit. It is much more similar to Lake Town in many ways, story-wise. The difference being, it survives.. mostly. Now, had Sauron "lived" in Mount Doom, and THAT set been released, WITH him as a maxi-fig, we would have an ideal comparison product.

I realize Unexpected Gathering is much easier to display, so it may be chosen "over" this set by many folks who don't give a rip about any of the rest of it. But I think the (personally predicted) difference in supply will more than make up for that in terms of the sets competing against each other.

Another way to put it is that this set is to The Hobbit what Black Pearl was to PotC, or Hogwarts to Harry Potter (imagine if there had only been one version). Obviously I am not the first to draw those comparisons.

Very well thought out post that makes sense.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Brickpicker mobile app

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These are only showing up in Toys R Us and Lego stores, and in very limited quantities.   Walmart had them listed online, but they didn't last long.  Target sells them online, but I haven't seen them listed for stores.  So, I doubt you see discounts on these, and I truly believe they are very limited in quantity.  I purchased the only ones i've seen at a TRU, and i'd be shocked if they get them back in.  3 weeks ago, there were quite a good amount of Hobbit BOTFA sets, but there's not much left.     Going, going, gone?

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Awesome analysis Grynn.

 

 

IMO... very bullish on ToO + TLM. Orthanc is a truly exceptional piece, and Smaug is an absolute icon.

 

 Of this line, other than UG (Frodo's hobbit hole)  and "The Wizard's Battle"... I think there's a lot of unappealing clutter in the line generally.  It's a shame that, to acquire the incredibly well-done Smaug figure, one has to pay $120 for Smaug + a pile of unappealing clutter.

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Nice to know there is a new 2015 production batch.  Thanks.

yessss.... but does that confirm that they renewed the Hobbit license for 2015? (at least just to continue to produce ToO and the Lonely Mountain?)

Edited by vexxet
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Well with all the Meijer folk getting the best deals again, now I am definitely not buying this unless I see a large discount. Really don't want to hold this for 5 years while everyone else makes profit selling at slightly above msrp.

This is the same way I feel about all sets. If I see many others getting substantial discounts I wont purchase unless I can come close to those discounts. Otherwise I am going to be holding much longer than everyone else before I see any profit. As an example I stocked up on the Mine 4204 in 2013-2014 with an average buy in of $70. Now it has been at TRU for $50-60 for a month. I will be holding my 25 a lot longer to see the gains that others are seeing by selling around $100. The steamroller is another example. Since so many stocked up at $25 there is no way I would touch that set for anything more than that.

 

The advantage The Lonely Mountain has over something like the Mine and others though is that there are a very low number of resellers and the set is very difficult to find at a discount. At the moment this is one of my top picks for 2015. 

Edited by Legodog
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This is the same way I feel about all sets. If I see many others getting substantial discounts I wont purchase unless I can come close to those discounts. Otherwise I am going to be holding much longer than everyone else before I see any profit. As an example I stocked up on the Mine 4204 in 2013-2014 with an average buy in of $70. Now it has been at TRU for $50-60 for a month. I will be holding my 25 a lot longer to see the gains that others are seeing by selling around $100. The steamroller is another example. Since so many stocked up at $25 there is no way I would touch that set for anything more than that.

 

The advantage The Lonely Mountain has over something like the Mine and others though is that there are a very low number of resellers and the set is very difficult to find at a discount. At the moment this is one of my top picks for 2015. 

 

I agree. Don't let those Meijer discounts fool you--this isn't necessarily a widespread sale with tens of thousands of units available for resellers. My gut tells me TLG is keeping the production rather low for this last Hobbit wave.

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I tend to have a different opinion.  I have seen this set once in the retail stores, and it was at a TRU and they had mint boxes, and so I jumped and bought them.  The next closest TRU to me is a hundred miles away.  I haven't seen any at the various retail stores in my area since, and I don't have a meijer within hundreds of miles from me, so that's not an option.  My target is to have about 10 of these at EOL.  Smaug is a big draw to this set.

Yes, I can get them cheaper at Lego.com for 10.00 cheaper, but with a limit of 5.  You can also get them online at target and amazon, but I have not seen this in any walmarts, and it doesn't look like it's heading there.  Maybe i'm wrong, but it just doesn't seem like it's happening.  The movie is being released on blu-ray, dvd, online as we speak, so maybe they'll put these out there, but from what i've seen that doesn't seem to be the case.   It was availalbe online at walmart a few weeks back, but lasted only a few days before they were gone. So, finding them on a clearance rack in the future at walmart or target is probably not going to happen.  That leaves buying the few that were put on the TRU shelves in my area, or taking a risk, and just hoping that they are on clearance at Amazon, and Target, which might happen, but probably not for that much lower than retail.  Or hoping that these may still be available during their discount events, which is also a risk.  I'd rather pay the 10.00 extra and not take that risk over being left in the dust.

This is one of those sets, where I plan on holding quite a few for a while, and not touching it.  I have faith in this one, and the ToO, along with a few others from the LOTR/Hobbit.  The Smaug maxifigure alone is worth it.

The people that have meijers next to them are lucky, I will say.  But, even at that it looks like there are maybe 3 to 5 of them in a store.  That's not a lot of stock, and it seems this set is pretty limited.  If that's the case, and it goes to EOL, i'd rather be with than without.

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This is the same way I feel about all sets. If I see many others getting substantial discounts I wont purchase unless I can come close to those discounts. Otherwise I am going to be holding much longer than everyone else before I see any profit. As an example I stocked up on the Mine 4204 in 2013-2014 with an average buy in of $70. Now it has been at TRU for $50-60 for a month. I will be holding my 25 a lot longer to see the gains that others are seeing by selling around $100. The steamroller is another example. Since so many stocked up at $25 there is no way I would touch that set for anything more than that.

 

The advantage The Lonely Mountain has over something like the Mine and others though is that there are a very low number of resellers and the set is very difficult to find at a discount. At the moment this is one of my top picks for 2015. 

Same here. This is why I have no Benny's spaceships (yet) for investment.

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My gut feeling is that Meijer will not stock this set much longer. Which leaves only TRU and online. I think this whole wave will have a very short run. My guess is it's gone for good by late summer. I just don't see LEGO keeping it going when retailers just aren't interested in carrying it. I could be wrong but I am stocking up on these either way.

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I watched Desolation of Smaug last night.  I'm not a fan of these Hobbit movies. When Smaug finally entered the action I enjoyed it more.  I will definitely be adding him to my collection.  We have a couple of these sealed from the Santa bucks Meijer promo.  I can't justify opening one of these just for Smaug and then deal with the hassle of selling the rest of the set/pieces.  Instead, I'll probably just buy him off Bricklink for $50 and sell the sealed sets in a couple years.

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Meijer is having 15% off general merchandise this weekend (3/13 - 3/14) when you use your Meijer credit card. This will stack with the already 25% off on this set. This is the time to stock up. Comes to $83+ tax each.

Edited by Legodog
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Meijer is having 15% off general merchandise this weekend (3/13 - 3/14) when you use your Meijer credit card. This will stack with the already 25% off on this set. This is the time to stock up. Comes to $83+ tax each.

Legodog, go ahead and get me 15 and I'll paypal you plus shipping.  Thanks.

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