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Brickpicker Blog

Brickpicker blog articles on LEGO investing, news, reviews, evaluations, discounts and more...
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I'm not stranger to polybags - if you've read two of my other blog posts about my personal attempts to reach ebay powerseller status, you'll know that a significant part of my strategy was accruing more total sales via small sets, i.e., polybags.  I've spent a fair bit of time looking both online and in brick and mortar stores for some of these little guys.  Like Pokemon, sometimes I just want to catch them all, although TLG makes this difficult by releasing an almost literal ton of them per year.  Plenty of other sites highlight polys for a given year, but those sights are not as interested as I (we) am in not only what is available, but more importantly, what can I (we) sell them for.
I'm sure - sure - that I'll miss some that were not widely released, or were only released to people with access to Google Glasses or to those who worship the Macks, but I aim to tackle the majority.  After a listing of the polybags released this year, I'd like to take a stab at guesstimating what makes certain bags profitable and certain bags saggy and worthless on the secondary market.  Before hunting them all down and doing some research, I had some ideas on what were the hot sellers, but even I had a couple of surprises along the way.  Since they are so widely available at different times throughout the year, it may behoove even an experienced LEGO jockey to give it a read.  Also, instead of flaming me in the comments section if I missed a polybag, let me know and I'll see about editing the post to include it.  Even my daughter's books teach that everybody poops...er, makes mistakes.
*NOTE* Promotional items like ComicCon figures, Brickmaster sets, monthly LEGO builds and such have not been included.  While doing some research, if it didn't look like a somewhat widely available polybag I skipped it, which was necessary because I still have what feels like a gazillion polybags to research.  I also am sure I read on Brickset about a couple of polybags that were available that I can't find in the Brickpicker database, one being a toy soldier that was included in a magazine (Danish magazine?) but disregarded it because, c'mon, what does Denmark have to do with LEGO? (Yes, that's a joke) .
You can change the table settings easily to see all at once, if you'd prefer.  The default is set to ten polys per page, I think.
 
Set Name & Number Set Information Brickpicker Average as of the Nov. 2013 update Ebay.com sold listings highlights from Jan 2014 30220 Fire Speedboat 40 pieces
1 minifig
US: TRU $5.39 BP $6.99-$8.99 30221 Fire Car 37 pieces
1 minifig
US: Target $6.86 $5.99-$7.99 30222 Police Helicopter 33 pieces
1 minifig
LEGO S&H
Walmart $6.59 $3.99-$7.99 30224 Ride-on Lawn Mower 42 pieces
1 minifig
UK: WHS
US: TRU N/A $4.99-$8.99 30225 Coast Guard Seaplane 37 pieces
1 minifig
UK: WHS
US: TRU $7.40 $4.25-$8.99 30183 Little Car 45 pieces
UK: Daily Mail N/A $1.97-$7.99 30184 Little Helicopter 56 pieces
UK: WHS N/A $4.37-$14.99 30185 Little Eagle 48 pieces
LEGO S&H $15.20 $1.94-$5.00 30186 Christmas Tree 51 pieces
US: TRU N/A $5.99-$7.29 40073 Panda N/A? N/A? N/A? 40078 Hot Dog Stand 39 pieces
2 minifigs
LEGO S&H free with purchase $11.11 $7.27-$19.99 40079 Mini VW T1 Camper Van 76 pieces
LEGO S&H with purchase or $6.99 $20.94 $14.99-$23.99 30106 Ice Cream Stand 34 pieces
1 minifig
US: Target
UK: Girl Talk $5.91 $2.99-$8.88 30107 Birthday Party 39 pieces
1 minifig
US: TRU $7.21 $6.00-$11.42 30108 Summer Picnic 33 pieces
1 minifig
US: Target
UK: Daily Mail $4.16 $2.25-$9.99 30250 Ewar's Acro Fighter
33 pieces
1 minifig
LEGO S&H, TRU, Target $7.26 $2.00-$7.99 30251 Winzar's Pack Patrol
38 pieces
1 minifig
US: Target
UK Daily Mail $5.02 $4.99-$7.99 30252 Crug's Swamp Jet
23 Pieces
1 minifig
US: TRU $6.53 $3.34-$8.99 30253 Leonidas' Jungle Dragster
30 pieces
1 minifig
US: TRU $6.55 $3.10-$9.99 30254 Razcals' Double-Crosser
36 pieces
1 minifig
US: Walmart $6.74 $4.55-$9.99 30255 Crawley
11 pieces
1 minifig
SE/NO/DK only $13.13 $6.88-$9.95 30260 Lone Ranger's Pump Car
24 pieces
1 minifig
US: Walmart
UK: Daily Mail $9.21 $2.50-$7.99 30261 Tonto's Campfire
20 pieces
1 minifig
Promotional
US: TRU $8.89 $4.99-$8.00 30216 Lake Town Guard
31 pieces
1 minifig
US: TRU N/A $6.99-$11.50 30240 Z-95 Headhunter
54 pieces
US: Walmart
UK: Daily Mail $5.97 $2.25-$5.99 30241 Mandalorian Fighter
49 pieces
US: TRU $5.36 $2.04-$6.50 30242 Republic Frigate
45 pieces
LEGO S&H w/ $50 purchase $6.98 $4.85-$7.49 30243 Umbaran MHC
48 pieces
US: Target, Walmart $6.19 $2.26-$7.00 5001621 Han Solo Hoth
5 pieces
1 minifig
May the 4th promo $13.40 $7.00-$15.00 5001709 Clone Trooper
Lieutenant
5 pieces
1 minifig
LEGO S&H with purchase $14.08 $8.71-$9.99 30166 Robin and Redbird Cycle
40 pieces
1 minifig
CAN: TRU
US: TRU $17.55 $9.99-$12.99 30167 Iron Man vs. Fighting Drone

24 pieces
1 minifig
US: TRU $8.72 $6.01-$7.49 30168 Iron Patriot
17 pieces
1 minifig
With video game preorder N/A $21.00-$29.99 50016231 Jor-El
5 pieces
1 minifig
LEGO S&H with purchase $13.53 $9.04-$16.07 30270 Kraang's Turtle Target Practice
36 pieces
1 minifig
US: TRU N/A $2.82-$5.72 40051 Valentine's Day Heart Box
54 Pieces
LEGO S&H $10.78 $6.99-$13.58 40052 Springtime Scene
88 pieces
2 minifigs
LEGO S&H $8.52 $6.45-$9.99 40053 Easter Bunny w/Basket
96 pieces
LEGO S&H $9.37 $5.16-$9.99 40054 Summer Scene
40 pieces
1 minifig
LEGO S&H $10.82 $7.79-$10.00 40055 Halloween Pumpkin
52 pieces
LEGO S&H $10.11 $6.99-$15.99 40056 Thanksgiving Feast
46 pieces
2 minifigs
LEGO S&H $11.83 $10.99-$13.99 40057 Fall Scene
72 pieces
3 minifigs
LEGO S&H $11.94 $11.00-$14.95 40058 Decorating the Tree
110 pieces
2 minifigs
LEGO S&H $11.62 $7.49-$8.99 40059 Santa's Sleigh
77 pieces
2 minifigs
LEGO S&H $12.55 $12.50-$14.99 Wow. 
That took substantially longer than I though it would, but I think I've gained some fairly useful insight into the world of polybags.
First, people be crazy!  I consistently - consistently - see polybag auction sales that are anywhere from 25-75% less than Buy It Now auction prices.  Granted, while looking at hundreds and hundreds of recent sold listings I didn't read each description but even spending five minutes researching as I have you'll see this immediately.  This is useful for two reasons; 1) If you are selling, please use BIN (as long as your BIN is not a totally ridiculous price) and, 2) If you are looking for a particular polybag, wait for auctions and bid low on a few auctions.  It seems that some folks are getting a poly for $2.25 while others are paying $9.99 for a BIN auction literally on the same day!  With a little patience and persistence I'd wager you can get your desired poly cheaper than a lot of the BIN prices and Brickpicker AVG prices you see.
Next, timing is almost everything.  A couple examples on the negative side: The Robin and Cycle polybag was originally only in Canada during a TRU promotion.  These featured a popular theme, had a cool minifig, and were selling for more than double their current rate.  Sadly, like many non-exclusive LEGO S&H polybags, they ended up on shelves in TRUs in the USA and in days the price tumbled to where it is now.  I remember when folks on Brickpicker forums were asking us Canucks to send them one for $25 or $30!  The Clone Lieutenant SW poly is another fine example - at first his availability was very limited and he was selling for a fortune (Brickpicker says people were paying over $100 for him at one point) but soon he became widely available and dropped to a more reasonable level.  Lesson: if a polybag is exclusive to one promotion/country it is likely it may become available further down the line more widely and your potential profits start to disappear.  If you do get your hands on something good, keep a close eye on the forums and LEGO-related websites.  If rumors come of your big money set showing up elsewhere, better unload quickly.
On the positive side of timing, for S&H exclusives, it seems the time to buy them is immediately.  Items like the Hot Dog Cart, VW Camper and others experienced a glut on the secondary market during and right after their promotional use.  I'm quite certain you could have grabbed a few VW's for half of their current price if you were crafty and patient. (remember to look for auctions, not BIN, for the most part, unless someone has posted a crazy BIN in a drunken stupor)
Lastly, exclusives seems to do the best.  By that, I mean exclusive sets that are from S&H, either for sale or from promotions.  Granted, they do best on total sale prices, but the benefit of widely available sets is that large retailers can and do mark down polys like crazy.  Folks on the forums are seemingly always running across some of these sets at TRU or Walmart and scooping them up for under a buck-fifty.  At that price, it is tough to say no!  Only looking at sale prices doesn't take into account the buy-in price.
One more tip from looking at thousands of pages of ebay data - when you do have a lot of polys, grouped packages seem to do well.  Say, all three 2013 Friends polys with a solid BIN price, or the seasonal LEGO S&H polys (Spring Scene, Summer & Fall) with a nice BIN.  To get a lot of polys, buy larger lots of polybags (10 or 20 bag lots) for a lower price per package right after a promotion when the market is flooded, and always poke your nose around clearance aisles.  Most of the great poly deals I've heard of come from Brickpickers who just happened to be wandering around a store and saw a box of nicely priced bags.
I had a blast checking out these sets, and you really should scan the data and make your own conclusions, but I'd say the top five polys of the year, for investing (I'm not including Iron Patriot here because I don't know how anyone could accrue a sufficient amount of these for investing purposes unless they bought 20 copies of the video game), as in, I wish I had ten or more of each of these:
#5Hot Dog Cart (A great little S&H exclusive set (with purchase), but I'm not sure how much more value can come from this poly)
#4 Robin Redbird Cycle/Clone Lieutenant (great early returns, if market saturation abates these could climb in 2014)
#3 Jor-El (Exclusive to S&H with purchase, might see more growth with another Superman movie)
#2 Han Solo Hoth (Exclusive to May the 4th and some LEGO store openings, this little guy suffered from market overload earlier in the year, but 2014 might see modest gains, especially around May 4th 2014)
#1 VW Camper (Exclusive to S&H with purchase, this pairs very nicely with its big brother - like the mini Sopwith Camel poly from the previous year - and it seems that market saturation is evaporating and prices are increasing.  For those that held or bought low, this little bag might pan out nicely in 2014)
The success of the modular line in the Lego Investing culture is obvious. Market Street, The Green Grocer, and Cafe Corner all have seen and continued to see insanely successful growth rates, with the newer Modulars only boosting their appeal to people. Take a look at the CAGRs of the different sets below:
Set NameRetail PriceCurrent Price (new)CAGRMarket Street 10190$89.99$1472.6759.34%Cafe Corner 10182$139.99$1426.2747.24%Green Grocer 10185$149.99$760.7438.37%So naturally, the Fire Brigade, as what we assume will be the next modular to retire, is an important investment set because all the other modulars have seen incredible gains. However, there is much more riding on the Fire Brigade for Lego investors than just the price of the set and how many each of us as stashed away.
 
To most of the experienced Lego investors here (I would not be one - I have only started about a year ago), Lego investing really "got out of the bag" about 1-2 years ago. This site and many others have continued to talk Lego fanatics, and people looking to make good money, into Lego investing. Not to say that Lego itself hasn't gained an extreme amount of notoriety during this time period as well and pulled in millions of new builders, but with the amount of investing "heavy hitters" growing, the talk about the "bubble" and the comparison to other toy market crashes like Beanie Babies and Baseball Cards can not be ignored.
So what does all this have to do with the Fire Brigade? Well, the Fire Brigade has been out for just over 4 years now and counting (it looks like it could be done, but has not officially hit "retired product" on the website) making it one of the longest set retail runs to date - and one of the most high profile too. Because of the success of the first three modulars, the Fire Brigade has been a popular choice among new and old investors on top of the people grabbing it because of its modular appeal. Ed, one the site's co-owners, has mentioned that this is the most owned set in the BrickPicker Brickfolio on several occasions. It is extremely safe to say that this set is much more stockpiled than any of the first three modulars.
On top of this, the long production run has been a fear of Lego investors in general. It makes sense - the longer a set is out, the more of them are bought, and the more competition in the secondary market later on. This doesn't mean long production sets won't be winners, just that it could take a much longer time to reap the same rewards from them had they lasted the normal 2 years. Along with this long run, the speculation is that this could become the norm for Lego sets and especially large popular exclusives.
The Fire Brigade is, in my opinion, will be the highest profile set to retire with an abnormal production run in the middle of the "Lego Investing Boom". Because of this, this set may very well be a huge barometer for any of the "buy and hold" investors going forward. If the set still triples or quadruples in value within the first three years, we will know that the long production run did not have as huge an effect. If the set plateaus extremely early as 1000s of investors try to offload their stock they have been holding for 3-4 years, it tells us a lot about what to stay away from moving forward (a shift to licensed sets as better investments no doubt).
No matter what you think will or wont happen with the Fire Brigade, the set itself will tell us a ton about investments moving forward. In this set of blogs, I will be looking at different aspects of the set to set a barometer for what it "should" do based on past sets. I will also be comparing it to other high profile Lego Sets that have retired with a much longer than normal production run to see if we can draw any comparisons. I will also be looking as some best and worst case scenarios as well as what to do during those and my investment analysis from it.
It is definitely not normal to spend so much time and focus so much on one Lego set as an investor. In fact that is usually a no-no as we encourage diversity and sager investing. However, with time showing that the Fire Brigade's production run and investment hoarding may be the norm going forward as Lego fights investors, this set may have an impact on 100s of others down the line. The Tower Bridge, the Volkswagon Bus, the Haunted House, and the rash of new modulars coming out like the Town Hall, the Pet Shop, the Grand Emporium, etc. are all going to be judged by what this set does.
If this set still soars up the proverbial latter and washes away all the doubters, we will know we are living in the crux of the golden age. However, if this investment burns furiously to the ground, we better all be ready to adapt before we go down with it.
Original Idea by rcdb1984
"Turboflipping is an original term coined by rcdb1984"
Whether you are new to the LEGO investing game or a seasoned pro, there is one thing that will always remain constant: a desire for fast and "easy" profits. As you probably know, however, most of the time to earn significant amounts of money you will need to hold your investments for a relatively long period of time depending on your target return, but there are some instances where you can take advantage of market shortages and make a generate some quick capital.
You may be wondering, understandably as it is a completely new term, what is Turboflipping. Odds are a lot of you had already done it in the past, as it only involves purchasing newly released sets and listing them for sale at a markup as soon as humanly possible in order to secure a profit. For example, let's take the newly released Maersk Triple E 10241:
The newest iteration of the Maersk container ship has a MSRP of $ 149.99. Having said that, being a newly released exclusive the only place you could really order the set from is LEGO S@H or by visiting your local LEGO B&M store, where available. Furthermore, if you were paying attention on the day the set was officially released to the public, S@H sold out in a matter of a couple hours with a expected ship date of almost a month later, giving those who were quick to order a somewhat comfortable window to sell theirs at a higher price. Want some hard data that backs up this claim? Let's take a look at the 5 latest Sold listings on eBay at the moment:    
As you can see, there is a clear opportunity to make some money on the set from people who for X reason can not wait to get their hands on what is, in my opinion, one of the better looking sets released by TLG in the past couple of years. Now that we got the basics out of the way, let's figure out how to make this process work for you. From my point of view, there are a number of ways to set up a tactic and make money on new releases:
 

1- Setting up pre-orders: You have probably seen a number of listings for to be released sets around a month in advance to their official release. Obviously, the sellers expect to sell desirable sets without having them in hand and either ordering them at midnight the day of release or waking up really early to be at a B&M location to pick them up. Let's examine the pros and cons:
 
Pros
- Might maximize your profits by setting higher prices, as not many sellers are comfortable with this system.

- Gives you a chance to gauge demand and set up two or more "waves" of sales. Get your first buyer's orders first and then take advantage of the post-release window of opportunity. Cons
- Not being able to secure enough sets to meet all of your orders can result in significant damage to your seller account as a result of negative feedback. Keep in mind that the only reason buyers bought from you is to get the set ASAP.

- There is a good probability that some of your buyers don't read the listing terms and assume you will be shipping their set in a couple days. As above, this opens you to negative feedback.

- You will need to forfeit the Top Rated discount (if applicable) as a result of the inability to upload tracking in 1 business day and offering returns on items you don't currently have.     Summary This is by far the most risky and probably worst method to put in practice. While some of the benefits look good on paper, the odds that you will run into some of the issues described on the "Cons" sections are substantially high (based purely on observation).

We all know a number of eBay buyers seem to avoid reading anything before making a purchase, and this type of listing relies completely on them doing precisely that to be satisfied. 2- Ordering online at midnight on release day: This method entails waiting until the set is officially released and as soon as it is available purchase as many copies as the limit allows. As said before, some very desirable sets go out of stock in a very short time and usually take a long time to be re-stocked, giving you the opportunity to capitalize on the shortage. Also, and only if you are comfortable, you can set up the listing on eBay a couple days before the set is released and just drop ship it once it goes up for sale.
 
Pros
- Avoids most of the problems related to pre-order type listings

- May allow you to qualify for Top Rated discount

- May save you some money by drop shipping instead of self-fulfilling

-Collect VIP points

- It is a better way to ensure you can meet your customer purchases on time Cons
- Risk of missing out on the profits as window of opportunity closes

- Loss of potential free promotional items

- More planning and perfect execution needed to have multiple orders shipped to different buyers

- Less interest in your listings, as the costumers themselves will be able to do exactly what you did on the release date     Summary A close second from the bottom up, this method saves you from what I consider to be the major problems of pre-order listings while increasing the time needed to execute it efficiently. Basically, you are lowering your risk significantly, but at the same time your reward just as much. 3- "Opening" a B&M location: It's 8:00 am and you are eagerly waking up to drive for half an hour to get to your local store and pick up as many newly released sets as you possibly can (bringing all of your kid's friends to help you as a cover). You grab several sets, pay and just as you leave the store you open up the eBay Mobile app and list all of your purchases for sale at a substantial mark-up. Turboflipping at its best.
 
Pros
- You know 100% how many sets you have available for selling

- Gives you the possibility to keep promotional items/VIP points that you can sell or keep for yourself

- Again, you are able to qualify for Top Rated discounts

- Opens the possibility of purchasing sets over the online limits

- May allow you to qualify for Top Rated discount

- May save you some money by drop shipping instead of self-fulfilling

- It is a better way to ensure you can meet your customer purchases on time Cons
- Increased competition from other sellers

- Less quantity of sets offered to B&M compared to S&H

- Only available to those with B&M stores at relatively close distance     Summary This is, by far, the best method to safely turboflip LEGO sets. No need to worry about meeting pre-set shipping deadlines, in-hand inventory and the possibility of acquiring promotional items are the main benefits that make this your best choice if you want to take advantage of the newly released sets' potential.

Furthermore, if you are sure you will be at the store well in advance, you can even set up the listing a day or two before to jump ahead some of the people that will be flipping the sets. There you have the 3 generic tactics you can use in order to flip newly released sets. Which one you use is completely up to you! Graphical representation of prices for to-be-released and newly released sets based on BP Data:
     
     
             

Having read the article up to this point, you may think doing this all the time with every set makes sense; thinking this way is a sure way to be disappointed. Take a look at some sold listings for the Sidney Opera House during its first couple of weeks:

While at first sight it may look that the sellers were able to make some money, assuming they purchased this set at MSRP and ignoring taxes leads us to the conclusion that very little profit, if any, was earned from this venture. When you are talking about a $300+ set, earning less than $30 (and even this is low by my standards) can only be cataloged as sub-par.
This example only points out something that everyone interested in LEGO selling should have clear by now: there is no such thing as 100% easy money. Even flipping this way involves some research both about the sets to be sold as well as the most efficient method to complete the sales. While trying to flip larger and iconic sets may seem as a great idea, sometimes you can maximize your profits by flipping several of the smaller, easy to ship sets like the DeLorean or Minecraft.
Notable turboflips of 2013
 
Set Mr. Gold 41999 Crawler DeLorean Interesting to note is the case of 10227 B-Wing, as it gave sellers a 2nd opportunity at flipping it immediately after the May the 4th discounts. What does the future hold? No one can really tell what the next successful new release will be, but if I had to guess I would put my money on the rumored UCS Sandcrawler and Slave 1. Both of those ships are SW fan favorites and would be appearing on the UCS lineup for the very first time. I really don't see how you would not be able to sell these for a substantial mark-up during the first couple of weeks of their release, as they will for sure sell out very fast. The re-hash of the Mos Eisley Cantina may also be a nice choice.
I really hope you find this article useful or at least interesting to read, and I would like to thank rcdb1984 once again for suggesting this article and his help developing it.
Thanks for reading!  
So Far TLG has produced three Minecraft Micro World sets:  21102 LEGO Micro World - The First Night, 21105 LEGO Micro World - The Village, and 21106 LEGO Micro World - The Nether.  The original Minecraft set was designed by Mojang on CUUSOO and began to make its way into houses in 2012.  The set was such an incredible hit that the LEGO company actually ran out of the set, and had to get another shipment in.  That only lasted about fifteen minutes and TLG had to get another shipment of the set.  This time supplies lasted, but the set still remained popular and stayed in the "25 most popular sets" list on S@H.  Fast forward to the 2013 San Diego Comic Con where TLG announced that there will be two more Minecraft Micro Worlds,  The Village and The Nether.  They are also still popular, and even though they all are very simple sets with many small 1x1 and 1x2 plates, tiles, and bricks, they all remain best sellers.  TLG has just recently announced that they will be creating minifig scale Minecraft sets.  In this article, I will be stating my own personal opinion (backed by facts and history) about the Minecraft theme and will also be determining which Micro World set will give us more bang for our buck.

The first set that we will be looking at is the 21102 LEGO Micro World - The First Night.  It was released in February of 2012.  This is the set that started the entire Minecraft theme.  The key factor to the popularity of this set is the game that it is based on:  Minecraft.  If Minecraft never existed and if it was an original theme that TLG created, than sales would not be anywhere close to where they are today.  The Micromobs are neat, but they are not all that detailed.  This is a set for Minecraft fans, and considering that over 13,400,000 people have downloaded the PC/Mac version,  there is a definite market for this set.  Out of the three Micro World sets, this the most iconic.  If the Steve and Creeper Micromobs do not appear in future Micro World sets, then that might give this set the small push that it needs to get to the top of the LEGO Micro World sets.  Another thing to consider while analyzing this set is that it is the very first LEGO Minecraft set to be created.  That alone should make this set a winner among Minecraft and LEGO fans alike.  People who want to take their LEGO Minecraft models to the next level will want to buy more than one set and build models like this:


The next set we will be analyzing is the 21105 LEGO Micro World - The Village.  This set was released on September first, 2013 along with the 21106 LEGO Micro World - The Nether.  The Village was the most popular of the Minecraft sets this past Christmas, even out-preforming The First Night.  However, that was only because it was the most recent Minecraft set before Christmas, 2013.  More people asked for this set for Christmas because they already had The First Night.  After a year or two, things will even out, and we will see which set is the winner of the two.  This set has a different variety of tiles and pieces which will help people who want to build their own Minecraft creations.  The Micromobs in this set are also neat, and the pig is very recognizable.  This is another great investment.
 

The last of the three Minecraft sets is the 21106 LEGO Micro World - The Nether.  Out of the three LEGO Micro Worlds, this one was the least popular this past Christmas.  Considering that this set was released on the same day as The Village, (which was the most popular set this Christmas,) this set might become the loser out of the three Micro Worlds.  However, this is not a bad investment.  This past Christmas I saw people on eBay selling all three of the Minecraft Micro Worlds for $180 dollars.  If they had bought these at retail, then they would have made $75 dollars.  People will want to complete their Minecraft collection with this set.  If they buy their favorite sets first, (most likely 21102 and 21105,) than they will be buying this set last.  If people don't have this set in their collection by the time it retires, then there will be a higher demand for this set after retirement.
So now after a careful evaluation of all three of these sets, we have to determine which one will be the winner.  The Village has a good chance of being the best investment, considering that it was the most popular Minecraft set this last Christmas.  The Nether did not do as well, though.  It was released on the same date as The Village, which probably means that people do not like The Nether as much.
The Village has proved to be a popular set worth investing in, but I think that the true winner will end up being The First Night.  The First Night has something that The Village does not, and that is 10,000 supporters on CUUSOO that made the whole Minecraft theme possible.  CUUSOO is not a Minecraft fan community; it is a LEGO fan community.  The First Night is recognizable to nearly everyone - even people who have never played Minecraft.  The bright colors and the box design of this set should make people want to buy and build it.  Overall, The First Night is a great set for LEGO and Minecraft fans and collectors alike.
There are only two reasons not to invest in the Minecraft Micro World sets:
#1.  They shows no signs of retiring.
#2.  If TLG waits too long to retire them, then they might flood the market.
I believe that these reasons could affect the value, but it will not be the make or break for these sets.  If you have plenty of storage space and do not mind waiting, than reason #1 is not very significant.  Reason #2 may sound like a good reason, but I think we can all take a lesson from the 10197 Fire Brigade while considering this problem.  I can remember many people saying that it would take the Fire Brigade more than a year to reach $200 dollars after it retired because it had been available for so long.  Guess what?  The Fire Brigade is worth more than $220 dollars and it is currently listed as "sold out" on S@H.  I can not remember one set becoming so popular that if flooded the market.  After researching the Minecraft sets, I would say that they are all good investments, great for flipping and long term investing ( if you are willing to wait a while.)
So what does the future of LEGO Minecraft hold?  TLG is working on minifig scale Minecraft sets right now, and they look amazing from what I have seen.  I expect LEGO to release some more Micro World sets, and if they keep it up, then these first three will become valuable classics.  If you head on over to the LEGO Minecraft website you can see some of the minifig scale sets they are working on.  LEGO even revealed some wallpapers which show some Micromobs that might be included in future sets.


Overall, I am very excited about the future of LEGO Minecraft, and believe that it could become a very solid theme.
I hope you have found this article useful.
Thanks for reading.
"Ed"itor's Note:  Over the past three plus years, I have encountered many types of people on our site and other LEGO sites.  One common thread that connects many LEGO fans is that many are highly educated.  There are many programmers, stock brokers, doctors, accountants, chemists, engineers and business owners that inhabit the various LEGO forums.  DoNotInsertInMouth is one such person...or character.  To make a long story short, I almost banned him for his name and wacko avatar he originally used, but he changed his avatar, so I relented.  Love him or hate him, you know who he is.  So without further adieu...well, you know the rest...Ed Mack
I think it would be an understatement to say that I post a lot on this site. Obviously I have written a very large number of blogs between the contests and have a ton more on the way (I am competitive). I also post a considerable amount on the site's forums and participate as much as I can. This is something everyone here probably knows - so what's the point of this blog.
Well a short while ago I really realized that when you post a lot and write a lot on a popular website, you are listened to. You automatically become somewhat of a role model, and people take your advice whether it is smart to or not. In reality, I wrote a lot for fun and didn't really think about what I wrote (not that it wasn't thought out, just didn't always think of the ramifications of my posts) and some of that has come back to bite me when I have seemingly contradicted myself in forum posts or come off in a different way than I meant to in a blog post.
So the point of this was to give you a view into who I am, my credentials in the fields, and what I do so that you can make an informed decision on whether you should or shouldn't take my advice, if I am experienced enough to be credible in your mind, and to help some people understand why I post the way I do and my general writing style. None of this is meant to "toot my own horn" or try to go back on things I have said (I have said before there are many people on this site with much more experience and who are much better at this than me); I just want to offer up a little bit of perspective because I can not expect to write and post as much as I do and not be considered a "credible member" whether I want to be or not (I do want to be). And I have never really ever given an introduction on this site anyway.
So, a short bit about me and my writing style: I used to be a very descriptive and imaginative writer. The problem was, a lot of my writing was jumbled run-on sentences and full of worthless sentences and ideas (no comment on it still being). I had a teacher in High school that wanted to "unlock my potential" which were her words as I just assumed I would always be a less-than-stellar writer. She managed to mold my writing style to be as simple as possible - nothing extra at all. It became very deliberate and to the point and it really helped me as a writer in high school and college. On the writing level, I have never been passed "proficient" on the writing scale, but I can hit proficient every time without a problem which was really what I wanted.
Fast forward to college; I have a Bachelors degree in Electrical and Computer Engineering and a Masters Degree in Electrical Engineering, both from the University of Louisville. Naturally, I wrote a lot of technical papers which even more made me a very blunt and simple writer (simple meaning I did not add imagery or "extras"). Funny enough, I got a job outside of my field when I graduated, one in Networking. I work for a very large Networking company in the Enterprise Division that serves medium to large businesses with networking equipment. I work in the support department as a support engineer doing things such as supporting customer problems, bug identifying and reporting, and generally playing a giant political role in wiping customer's butts because we want them to continue to purchase our equipment.
That last thought really finishes molding my writing style. On a daily basis, I deal with people who know much less about Networking and our equipment than I do (any one who has EVER worked a support role knows how this feels) yet makes 5X more money than I do. A certain part of my day is spent catering to these egos, but another part of a support role in this situation is being deliberate, blunt, and having a general control of a conversation whether by text or by voice. If you have ever read a blog I have submitted, you will understand where that comes from. I write like I am telling everyone what to do because in general that is what I do every day. I am generally blunt and un-apologizing. I definitely write in a very "preachy" way.
So I want to put out there that this is definitely not my intent and I try to write around these tendency's as much as possible. But I definitely do not want people to think I am preaching or telling people what to do - most of the time I am merely offering what I think and am absolutely fine of people disagreeing with me. I LOVE debate. I change my opinions about things constantly. Does this mean I am a "flip-flopper"? Maybe - but I like to think I just mold and change my opinions until they settle into the place I want them. If someone makes a compelling argument, I will switch. As much as I sound sometimes, with my writing style, that I want to be right, that is really only the small "ego" portion of me. I want to be right, but I want what I am doing to be right not just want what I say to turn out to be correct.
Past my writing style, I want to offer up a little bit more about me and a little about my background in Lego so people can make their own decisions as to my credibility. I am absolutely being honest with you all in this - I am not a fan of "boosting" myself up.
Who am I outside of Lego?
First off, my real name is Evan. I have a few nicknames: DNIIM here, "the Birdman" when I play basketball (anyone who is familiar with Chris Anderson will understand), and "sticks" when I used to play drums in a band. I am 26, married, and live in Huntsville, Alabama.
I am a workaholic first and foremost - I think most people here can attest to that. I really feel that I was born with one real talent: I work harder than any normal person can. I am into a ton of stuff and I do it all mediocre to ok. A lot of people look at me and say "Man that guy is multi-talented" (more on this in a minute), but in reality I just bust my butt on a daily basis (and yes I do not sleep much).
Some of my interests:
Sports: Playing them (poorly) as well as watching. I love Soccer, Basketball, tennis, and Football especially. Music: I can sing (poorly) and play the Saxophone (I have a CD if you are interested), Drums, piano, and Guitar (all in the mediocre range) Video Games: Mostly into Sports video games and what I would call "Party games". Also I freaking love Pokemon. Code Writing and developing: Totally an outside of work hobby. Electronics: Only place I actually use my degrees - I like to fix and take apart/build electronics. How did I get into Lego?
About a year ago I saw a few Lego Star Wars sets. I had never been into Lego before: I liked it but my Dad was very anti-toy when I grew up. My wife and I went on a Honeymoon to Disney World and I went to the Lego store and became hooked. After some messing around I stumbled upon this site and my addiction was born.
Lego Investing Credentials
I started investing about 8 months or so ago. I found about 12 sets in a small damaged-retail store and that with this site kicked it off. A couple of my best picks have been the Dino series and the B-wing (hopefully it continues).
I now invest fairly heavily. I also own an Ebay store in which I part out sets, sell sets I have invested in, flip used and new sets, and sell anything else that I can make money on. My Ebay store averages about 250 items now and I get, in a non-Christmas month, about 600 visitors a day. I have had this store for 4 months, although I do not expect it to grow much more than this. I sold 600 items during December at an average of 35$ (a couple of big items skewed that as the median is around $14).
I am NOT what I would consider an "Experienced investor". However, I work hard and research constantly. I study past sets before I make decisions, I remember what people say about certain sets and I spend most of my day on Ebay monitoring prices. Speaking of Ebay, I consider myself an Ebay expert in terms of navigation and purchasing/searching (not necessarily in terms of rules yet).
Outside Lego Credentials
I am only 26, so I don't have a giant Investing portfolio. I have, however, managed a business with two locations for about a year, including making purchasing, inventory, and personnel decisions. I have experience in retail as well. I am actually, at heart, a salesman - the place I managed set monthly records for sales 10 out of the 13 months I was there as well as me setting personal sales records (no clue who worked there before so they could have just been incompetent) - but I lack the final killer instinct to sell things for a living as I let my morals sometimes get in the way (doesn't mean they are right or wrong).
Anyway, I will get back to writing Lego blogs, but I wanted to give people a bit of insight into my life before I did. I do not encourage anyone to just listen to me because I write - if you do this in general, you set yourself up for failure. I do not blindly take anyone's advice. I encourage you to take what I have said here and read my blogs and make your own informed decisions based on it. You alone will be responsible for your successes and failures in the Lego investing world (just like you ultimately are in life) so make sure you aren't letting others make decisions for you. That includes not just "taking my word for it" because I am not afraid to put myself out there.
I do know, however, that I owe any credibility I have at all to this site and the people that read my work - so a big thanks to all that contribute. I encourage everyone else to not be afraid to put themselves out there either. As you write and contribute, you will only learn more and boost your own success.  
Original idea MartinP - how much investment potential do holiday promo sets have?
If you've been investing for any appreciable amount of time, you'll be aware that Brick Friday is one of the most important events on a LEGO investors calendar.  Personally, I drive my wife nuts outlining various purchasing strategies for this special time - how to maximize my purchases within a limited budget.  Also to consider is how to maximize the number of free holiday promo sets; each order ideally just clears the minimum to obtain the goodies TLG offers buyers, like a carrot in front of a hungry mule. (We are the mules in this analogy, and by god we want that carrot)
For real newcomers to BrickPicker.com, we've just passed another Brick Friday and you'll have to stick around for another eleven or so months to experience the rush.  I can briefly outline what it is all about.  Traditionally (at least in my limited Brick Friday experiences) LEGO VIP members (which should be pretty much everyone as it is free to join) get access to limited deals the weekend before Black Friday in the USA.  Generally I don't find the deals all the enticing, but there are usually better incentives - double or triple VIP points and free Christmas-themed Creator Holiday sets if your order exceeds a set dollar amount.  The combination of triple VIP points and a neat little Christmas set that can be sold (if desired) can make large LEGO exclusives and large hard to find sets much more reasonable in price - the catch being you have to use those VIP points on more LEGO, but if you are investing in LEGO it shouldn't be too difficult to find LEGO sets you want from S&H.  Another wrinkle is that in 2011 and 2013, there were two sets that were available at different times, encouraging people like you and me to buy plenty of LEGO sets during both promotional periods to get matching sets.
This brings us to MartinP's real question - do these holiday promos have any serious investment potential?  If not, and they are going to generally plateau at a certain price point, when is the best time to sell these adorable little sets?  After all, we're all looking to maximize our returns on these little free sets so we can get what we really want - large LEGO sets at a 'discount'.
Below I'd like to detail the original offers on the promo sets as well as their success on the secondary market.  Below that, I'll include my take based on a quick check of current ebay sold listings that haven't been included in the Brickpicker database for December 2013.
What can we learn from this data?  First, I think that the 2011 sets don't display that well with other Winter Village sets (Toy Shop, аakery, Cottage, etc.) and are therefore not as desirable.  Also, the Santa minifigure in the second 2011 holiday set might be the catalyst for its slightly better growth.  That being said, recent ebay sold listings for December 2013 show that all sets listed above are selling for more than their Brickpicker average, leading me to ascertain that (duh) these sets will sell for a higher price around the holiday season.
My personal take is that these sets appear in huge numbers immediately following the promotion and it is unlikely you are going to get the best value from your set with a quick flip.  I managed to hit up a couple BIN auctions just after the promo (2013) and picked up two of the first holiday promos for $11.95 each, which I think is a little on the low side.  So far there seems to be a ceiling of around $30 that these sets can command, making it more reasonable to use these not as a long term investment, but as a little bonus to reduce your buy in price of large LEGO exclusives.
My advice would be to avoid low starting prices on auctions - these seem to be the recent sold listings that sell for $20 and under - stick to BIN and there is plenty of evidence that you can get a higher price.  Also, if you can grab a few pretty cheap right after they flood the market there may be an opportunity to make a decent return, but thus far there doesn't seem to be solid year-over-year growth.  If you are going to invest and hold on to those hoping to buck the existing trends, stick to the sets from 2012 and 2013 as I think they work much better with the Winter Village series.  You could also bundle these sets with Winter Village sets (if you are lucky enough to have a slew of EOL'ed sets, this could boost your return) to get more interest in your auctions.
Overall it seems like these neat little sets are most useful as a $25 discount (after fees, approximately) on a LEGO purchase.  That being said, they are very popular - typically among the most sold sets during the holidays, so I would be interested in seeing if someone can invest in quite a few of these little guys and hold them for another 2-4 years to see if they can grow.  They are small, and easy to store, but I think you'd have to invest in a large number of sets in order to see a sizeable total profit - personally, I'll sell them, take the money and run.
It seems like a lifetime ago I wrote a little piece about investing in Friends.  At the time, none were quite EOL and there was a lot of speculation about the value of this line for investment purposes.  So, where are my girls at?  How has that first wave of Friends sets done on the secondary market?
For those that have been around long enough, based on the early success of Friends, production for sets of the first wave were increased.  Even with this increase of production, plenty of the initial sets were sold out or hard to find this holiday season, and I suspect several will move from sold out at S&H to retired (which is now one of the most beautiful words in the English language, I think) in early 2014.  Obviously, even with increased production, Friends remains a huge seller.  Gandalf and Bilbo, Vader and Harry Potter are all looking up at the current number four CAGR% theme.  Number four, people!  I was thinking top ten when I wrote the initial article on Friends investing, but I didn't think it would be topping Superheroes and Batman - even from someone who loved this line, I still underestimated their appeal a little.  As of Dec. 31st, 2013, this theme sports a massive 52.61% CAGR!
*Note: The chart continues on to a second page for three more reviews!
The world of LEGO investing is one that is constantly evolving and changing.  Right now, with a lot of the first wave of Friends sets being OOS, Sold Out or Retired on S&H, there are almost more changes than one can keep track of.  Hopefully this chart offers enough information on current trends for these sets.  Looking at these trends, there are several options that look set to double, triple or quadruple (plus) their retail in the coming twelve months.  Some can still be found at retail, some even on sale, but I'm pretty certain most of the sets listed above won't be available for long (see exceptions in the chart).
In anecdotal evidence, I had a fair amount of success selling Butterfly Beauty Shops and Heartlake Dog Shows, two of the sets I targeted way back when.  So, with the first wave in the process of EOLing (yes, it can be used as a verb, English lit-LEGO investors) what does the future hold?  For the first time since the launch of Friends, a second girl-oriented line will be sold alongside it - Disney Princesses!  Also, with two Christmas seasons in a row with (seemingly) limited stock, will TLG double production again?  Even if they do, there should still be opportunities on 2012 Friends sets that are highlighted above.  Plenty of questions, and only speculation at this point, but I think Friends will keep near the top of the CAGR percent heap and offer savvy investors plenty of opportunities to make greenbacks from those pink and purple bricks. 
As mentioned in other blogs and some of my forum posts, I have begun a Lego business online using an Ebay Store. A large part of my business is from parting out sets; The practice of of selling the minifigures and certain desirable parts of a set (like a vehicle or building) separately to make money on the set. This is a very common (but time consuming) practice for many different people ranging from businesses to people like me. On the outside, it seems like a fairly understandable, and even helpful, practice. Let's say a giant new set comes out, like the Jabba's Sail Barge 75020 at the $120 price point. This is a refresh, so there may be people who already have the original and don't care for the new one. However, this one has an exclusive Max Rebo figure in it. So, they jump on Ebay and pick one up for 15$, not having to purchase the whole set they don't want to get that figure.
In the same manner, a kid sees the 70505 Temple of Light set and loves the Golden Mech, but does not want the full set nor do his parents have the money for it (70$). So the parents get on Ebay and grab it for $20. It is not hard to see the benefit here. So why would The Lego Group(TLG) be against it?
In the last year, we have seen TLG tremendously crack down on re-sellers not using their reselling program, investors, and most other types of Lego Business. The obvious reason for battling people who part out sets is they want people to buy the full set. However, past that it just seems as if TLG does not like other businesses making money by "rearranging" their products - which is somewhat understandable.
So, why do I think this?
The Evidence
It took me a short while to start coming to this conclusion. When I started my parting out business, I picked up a lot of the newer star wars sets to start with. I got used to a minifigure in 3/4ths of the bags, separated for the most part. After a while, I picked up a few Ninjago sets, specifically the Epic Dragon Battle 9450 and UltraSonic Raider 9449. These were released a couple of years ago, and well before the Star Wars sets. In these sets, the figures were all in the first bag! This made it incredibly easy to part out as you weren't opening 4 or 5 more bags each set.
I got a little curious about it, and decided to pay attention as I started to open more sets. All of the older Ninjago sets had their minifigures all, or mostly all in the first bags. This would serve as a control. In December, new Ninjago sets came out which I knew would tell me what I needed to know: Mainly if I was just being suspicious for no reason, or if something is actually happening. Sure enough, the three sets I have parted out so far - 70723, 70724, 70725 require the opening of 3, 4, and 4 bags respectively.
I do not have a ton of older sets to compare it to now, since most of them are now retired or not worth parting out - but I did notice some more: The 9468 Vampyre Castle does not require more than one bag opened nor does the 10228 Haunted House. The newer set results are impossible to ignore. Here are a few of the interesting sets showing this point that are more recent:
The three Ninjago sets mentioned The new Hobbit Sets 79011, 79012, 79013, 79014 all require multiple bags to be opened - 2, 2, 3, and 4 respectively. Arkham Asylum Breakout - 7 of the 9 bags have to be opened. 75021 SW Republic Gunship -  6 of the 9 bags must be opened. 10236 Ewok Village - Somewhere near 100 have to be opened. I have also noticed that the minifigure parts inside each bag have become somewhat randomly placed. For example, the Black Gate 79007, requires all 4 bags be opened. In bag 3, you must put together a simple 5 piece orc. Normally, torso and legs are in the main bag and the head, weapons, and small pieces are in the smaller inner bag(s). In this bag, the legs to the orc are in the smaller parts bag. This is somewhat peculiar, already because there are two close-to-identical orcs in different bags, but the legs for the other orc are not in the smaller parts bag.
On top of this, a lot of larger sakout.ets with tons of minifigures now have more than one bag with the same number on it. This means you may have to open more than one bag...just to open one bag! This is the case with the Ewok Village and Arkham Asylum Breakout.
Why would TLG do this besides a Conspiracy?
To be fair, as a builder I really like this. It is definitely fun to have a minifigure in each bag and I think that opening all the minifigures in one bag can sometimes make the rest of the set seem duller - especially if the minifigures are the main draw. As far as for younger builders, I think this keeps them interested through the whole thing.
It is possible as well that this is just a process/manufacturing thing for TLG and the minifigure placement, and part placement inside the bags is just becoming more efficient, and for some reason the current configuration lends itself to that.
Another very plausible explanation is to guard against theft. We have all heard the stories about people punching out corners of the box and removing the minifigures. It is obviously much easier to do this if you can just swipe a whole bag rather than having to open 7 or 8 of them in a busy store.
How much worse can it get?
In the current sets, while I prefer the older configurations with all minifigures in the first bag, things are not too bad. After you open a set a few times, you get used the set and remember where each piece is in each bag. I timed myself opening two similar sets to prove this out: 9449 UltraSonic Raider and the Dol Guldur Battle 79014.
9449 took 5:46 (this is building all minifigures and packing up the raider) 79014 took 10:23 (building all minifigures and packing up the rest of the set) Definitely a considerable difference. 79014 took almost 2 times longer to separate. As we know, in any business, time is money and this is definitely a huge toll on anyone looking to part of sets. But can it get worse?
In a word... yes.
TLG can easily continue to separate minifigures even more inside the packages themselves. A lot of bags contain 2 smaller packages. TLG may start putting a piece of each minifigure in each bag. They could start individually wrapping each part of the minifigure in the bag itself (they do this in certain cases now) meaning that each part would have to be unwrapped. New minifigures may end up showing up in multiple sets meaning less exclusive minifigures that command high prices. They could refrain from changing minifigures expressions or outfits in different sets. Instructions and parts for different pieces (like one modular from the minimodular sets) could end up in different bags or in a abnormal arrangement making it almost impossible to part out sets in that manner. Selling minifigures separately themselves. Would they do this? I think there will be a point where this would hurt their business more than it would be deterring people from making money from their product. For that reason, I only see them continuing to play games with packaging the minifigures in weird ways. I really doubt that TLG would make it harder for builders just to keep a few entrepreneurs from making a little by being creative.
Other problems to consider
There are bigger concerns than a set just taking longer to part out. With different parts in different places, I routinely find myself missing a part and having to go back and figure out where it is. On the more complicated sets, I have definitely had more Ebay Buyer Protection cases opened because I left a small piece off a minifigure. In reality, I forget some pieces because I get so frustrated trying to find every little piece. The worse this gets, the more vigilant we will have to be to make sure we get everything correct.
If TLG decides to go an even more drastic route, like limiting exclusive minifigures or even selling them separately themselves, the business as a whole is in jeopardy. I will attest that there are certain sets, like the Funhouse, that are very tough to part out just because so many people are doing it. If minifigures are now found in more and more different sets, you may have to get a set at 50 or 60% off to make parting out a worth while venture. Just look at values for figures like Harry Potter, Frodo and Bilbo Baggins, Gandalf the Grey, etc. and you can see how these values are killed because they appear in so many sets. Not the same as the values for figures like Azog, Pre Vizsla, Max Rebo, etc.
How can Parter-outers fight back?
First off, there is not too much we can directly do - it's TLGs product and they certainly have a right to package things and organize them how they want. However, there are some ways you can cut down on the pain this causes you.
If you already have a set parted out, have it handy (or pictures) as you part the next one out In addition to the above, doing the same set a bunch of times in a row really helps as you get in a grove and cut down on your time significantly. My wife helped me one day with 10 of 3 different sets. By the time she got to the 4th or 5th of each one, she was flying and didn't miss a piece. Have an extra of each set you part out consistently on hand so that if you miss something, you will have an extra to resend out to a buyer while you try and find it. If you get tired or frustrated - TAKE A BREAK! I have noticed this really helps me. I actually will sometimes work out and part out sets funny enough. I do a set or two of weights, then open up a set. Gets me in a groove and I relieves the stress. In conclusion, it is very possible that all of this is imagined and I am just pushing a conspiracy that is not really there. But, either way, we can't ignore that newer sets are getting harder and harder to part out quickly - that much is clear. If you do and do not stay vigilant towards these concerns as TLG possibly takes more and more drastic steps, it could be your Lego business that is in parts.  
Lego Chima is a very interesting theme to say the absolute least. When the them first came out, I think my collective thoughts on each set were "What the hell is that?". To a certain extent I still ask myself that, so I had always had a pretty negative view of Chima along with many other posters on the forum. I see some people prop up a few individual sets, but they are certainly not called out as targets for big time investing. In fact, I think that even the lowly Lone Ranger theme (I say lowly in a tentative manner obviously) gets a lot more love than the Chima theme. I am a victim of this myself - I look at these sets and see "little kids toys" and a bunch of random Asian influenced anime-type characters and just don't see the same thing I see when I look at a Modular or a UCS Star Wars set. You could probably go back and quote me just a month or two ago saying that I wanted to "Wait and see on this theme".
However, a few things weighed on me and started to change my mind.
I wanted to share them and see if they changed anyone else's mind. My first thoughts into it actually came with a post Ed Mack (co site-creator) said several months ago. I can not find the original post, but it was to the effect of "There are 100's of Lego Sets that are winners that are not even mentioned once on this site". A lot has been made of investment sets like the Fire Brigade and the Fun House, the Orc Forge, etc. being stockpiled and diminishing their value. To me, I saw Ed's statement as meaning "If you want to stay ahead of the game, you have to find the hidden fruit." Think about this: The set that had one of the highest CAGR's since its release and probably won the award for it last year is The Zombies - a small 40$ Monster Fighters Set. Yes, it had a very short production run, but how many people had really seen a ton of investment value in this set. Furthermore, how many times was it actually mentioned on this site?
So I have lately started looking for the "Gems" in the investment world. I started looking at the smaller, less talked about Ninjago sets. I also took another piece of Ed's advice and picked up some different Hero Factory sets he had written blogs about; 30% CAGR later I am feeling good about those. But as I kept playing around with these different sleeper sets, I still didn't know what to think of Chima. Its still unproven, I still don't really know what it is, and there are SO many sets around to really choose from.
About a month or so ago, I went to the Lego store and it was freaking packed. I hate when places are so packed with people you can't move, so I wanted to get in and get out. As I was looking around I overheard some small children pointing out Chima Lego sets that they wanted. They were going on about Birdmen, "wolf guys", "bird ships", and more that made no sense. I sort of laughed it off, but it suddenly dawned on me: Not only was I discounting this theme because I didn't know what it is (a big time no-no for any investor), I was thinking that actually had some baring on the sets investment values. Sure, they have to have memorable names and a story behind it - this is really what the show is designed to do - but all the kids cared about were that the sets were cool. They wanted them.
So I asked myself - what really makes this theme different than Ninjago? With Ninjago, everyone says its popular because "kids like Ninjas and dragons". However, Destiny's Bounty has done great. The Rattlecopter is seeing solid gains. And we all know Spinners are Winners. In all seriousness, its not. And Ninjago was discounted by tons of people when it came out too when it came to investment value.
At this point, I hadn't really written or solidified my thoughts on the theme yet (I really like to write down or type out thins as it legitimizes them for me). Luckily, one of our esteemed members, Quacs, PM'd me and asked me about my thoughts on the Chima Series. I wrote a pretty long paragraph cataloging a lot of the points I am going to make below and in the coming sets of Blogs. Quacs replied he totally agreed and he wont be caught without these sets either when the proverbial clock strikes midnight.
So why am I convinced this theme is a winner?
The are done the "Lego" way - the right way.
Obviously this can be interpreted any way you want looking at old sets and themes, and it certainly doesn't just take this to make a theme a winner, but these are what I would call "top of the line" Lego sets. This means they have everything collectors, investors, and anyone else looks for in a Lego sets. The sets are incredibly detailed and colorful - there really aren't any dull Chima sets that I have seen. The sets have tons of moving parts, flick missles, vehicles and ships. Also, what I think is most important, the theme has an insane amount of variety. The Chi Raider 70012 is a giant Bird Ship. You then have the Chi Temple 70010, which is a castle or sorts. Past that, there is Cragger's Ship 70006 , a classic ship or sorts made to fit the theme. There are tons more as well. Each vehicle or base/hideout is extremely unique which offers more and more to different people to get theme interested in the theme. The more variety in a theme, the more it appeals to everyone. Think about this in terms of the Lone Ranger: Who do those sets appeal to? Western collectors, the cult of people who liked the movie and trains? Obviously Chima has more sets, but that only strengthens the theme in my opinion.
No Licensing Agreement - This is Lego's Theme
Ok, before you kill me with the argument that licensed themes do the best (which is right in a lot of ways), look at this from a different angle. Lego has invested a ton of money into this theme (hence the TV show, the wide array of sets, etc.) because they make all the money from it. There are no hands grabbing sections of this as the money train makes its way to TLG. Just like Ninjago and Lego Friends, Lego will work and work to make sure that this theme is known, is popular, and is established.  Commercials have started running for these themes as well. This really works in tandem with everything else, but Chima will be a winner because Lego wont stop until it is during production. And rarely does a theme do well in production and drop off after it.
The Minifigures
I have definitely heard some negative things about the minifigures from this series on the forums here. I, again, was skeptical but looking at how well Ninjago figures do, I figured these followed in those same footsteps. If you do not know, I have ran a Lego business on Ebay for about 4 Months now and a big part of that is piecing and parting out sets - especially minifigures. I also buy large minifigure lots and part them out as well. A couple of months ago, I decided to take the leap and grab some Chima sets to part out.
On one hand, the figures are really hard to part out. But this is a good thing for the secondary market - they are hard to part out because they all have SO MUCH going on with them. Almost every Chima figure is 8-10 pieces including the weapons, wings, helmets, etc. For us, this seems a bit like overdoing it, but for those who know Children well, that word is not in their vocabulary.
As some "fact" to offer up with this - Chima Figures were just behind Ninjago as my fourth best seller during December (Star Wars and Lord of the Rings being 1 and 2 respectively). However, I offer much less Chima in my store. I sold about 50% of my inventory during December, more than twice that of any other theme. And, it beat out Super Heroes figures surprisingly. This means there is a market out there.
Sleepers, Sleepers, Sleepers
There is definitely no way to tell something is a "sleeper". And ina  lot of the ways, if you advertise a set on this site as a sleeper, it immediately becomes "awake" as we saw with the Funhouse. However, no matter how many blogs I write, these sets from this theme are going to be overlooked by the majority of investors. There will be (I will speculate on which ones in upcoming articles) sets, mark my words, that experience staggering secondary market growth and cause 95% of us on here to go "Why the hell didn't I grab that when I walked by an isle of 50 of them". And there will be much more than just one set doing this.
Furthering this argument, this theme as I had said will be pushed and pushed and pushed by Lego. Maybe the first set of retirees don't jump right at the beginning and a few of us get worried. But IF this theme does take off, the sets you are seeing from this first run that are or will be retiring soon may just become the holy grail. Just like the early Dragons from the Ninjago series, you will see a few sets benefit from the theme becoming huge and these sets becoming sought after because they are so rare (Think the Market Street effect on a smaller stage).
So what are the downsides? Well, there are risks with everything. The theme is unproven for sure. There are TONS of sets which could make it much harder to pick a winner and also dilute the pool a bit as things may not be as recognizable. The minifigures do have a lot going on and maybe Children love simplicity. Perhaps these are not actually selling well at all and it is only a matter of time before Lego drops the whole theme altogether.
In conclusion, as a lot of investment risks do, our choices come down to "am I willing to take a leap of faith on this theme based on what we see so far?". I know my answer to that question: I don't want to be kicking myself later.
First, yes, yes, I know the Coast Guard isn't actually part of the navy, although did you know that at any time the President can transfer the USCG to the Department of the Navy, or that Congress can do this during times of war?  So, accuracy aside, just let it slide as it makes for a better title.  Who doesn't like Village People references in the Lego investing world?
Now, down to nuts and bolts and anchors.  The City Theme doesn't get a lot of posts and discussion, which is just crazy as its current CAGR%(Compound Annual Growth Rate) is a hefty 20.22%.  This dwarfs much more discussed themes (I'm looking at you, Star Wars) that don't provide rates of return (SW, still you at 8.24%) and offer many possibilities for the small to mid-sized investor.  One of the drawbacks for an investor might be the sheer number of City sets that are available at retail at any given time - where to put your hard earned capital? Luckily, the City theme has plenty of sub themes that seem to rotate regularly and might even offer better opportunities than simply closing your eyes and randomly throwing sets into your cart.  In addition, City themes are available at many retailers and I've never had trouble tracking down City sets with sales/promotions quite easily.  So, let's take a look at a really great sub theme that is currently available at retail right now - Coast Guard sets.
A little light reading at Brickipedia provides a nice snapshot of this particular theme, which has been around in some form or another since 1978!  It turns out that Lego decided to mark my birth in '78 with this theme - thanks, Lego!  Feel free to explore some of the really old sets if you'd like, but for the purposes of this post, I'm going to focus on the 2008 sets for comparison purposes.  One key and noticeable difference between the 2008 and 2013 sets is that this release doesn't have a 'base' like the 4210 Coast Guard Platform.  It would have been nice to have an updated reissue of this set with a higher piece count.  Another factor to consider is that the most recent BrickPicker information is clouded by the reissue factor - since the release of the 2013 Coast Guard sets, it seems that the 2008 sets are losing value.
As with all City sub themes, there is a danger in a reissue.  It seems the Coast Guard theme is pretty popular and gets regular installments, so I'd expect another round of sets in 2017 or 2018.  It seems likely that the current range of sets will be available for all of 2014 and might become hard to find or EOL(End of Line) by late 2014 or early 2015, giving a savvy investor about a two year window to allow for appreciation and then sales before another reissue.  I'm not advising a basement full of each set in the range, but I think it would be wise to grab the two biggest sets (60014 Coast Guard Patrol and 60015 Coast Guard Plane) over the course of the next year when you see them at a solid discount.  I think if you can get them at 20-30% off you'll be pleasantly rewarded with a solid ROI%(Return on Investment).  A conservative expectation for these two larger sets might be 75% growth from retail two years post-EOL with the possibility of growth over 100% from retail bringing it in line with the sets from 2008.  If you don't mind the hassle of lots of shipments and the related pains of selling lots of little sets with a good ROI% but not much total profit, feel free to invest in the smaller sets when on sale.  Just make sure you're willing to do a fair amount of work for a small total profit!
In short, it is time to get your sea legs.  All aboard!  Next stop, Profitville!  
Guest
10230 Mini Modulars Set Information
Name: 10230 Mini Modulars
Theme: Exclusives, Advanced Models
Year Released: 2012
Pieces: 1356
Minifigures: None
Price (MSRP): $79.99 US / $99.99 CAN / $99.99 AUS / £59.99 UK / 69.99€ EU
Summer 2012 brought us a unique and exclusive set known as 10230 Mini Modulars. The set was not only an exclusive to the Lego Brand Retail and Shop @ Home, but was also only available for VIP cardholders. Capturing the essence of the first five modulars released by Lego (Market Street, Cafe Corner, Green Grocer, Fire Brigade, and Grand Emporium) in tiny scale, the set provides a much more affordable alternative than the real sets. It recently gone out of stock at Lego.com and it would appear its retirement is imminent. Therefore, it seemed like the perfect time to write up an article about the set to help induce even more panic buying (insert evil grin here). Jump right into the world of miniature models and mega profits!
The Build

Opening the box reveals five neatly organized bags, one for each of the buildings (numbered in the order that each of them was released, starting with Cafe Corner and Market Street which were both 2007 releases). The first instruction booklet covers bags 1-3, with the second covering 4-5. The instructions are cleanly designed and contain the standard part inventory (at the back of book 2) and piece box for each step.

The construction of the modulars is a slow and piece intensive process considering their size. I would say the vast majority of pieces are small plates and tiles, which makes it a nice parts pack. There is a bit of repetition here and there (like in the windows for the Grand Emporium) but the true source of frustration for builders will likely come from the small size of the pieces, which can make construction difficult in some areas. However, the set uses a huge amount of interesting techniques that make it a very enjoyable build overall. From the SNOT used for Market Street, to the bell of the Fire Brigade or the lifesaver lined with skeleton legs on Cafe Corner, the set is an excellent lesson on how  to capture the spirit of larger models in micro scale. The basic pictures in this review don't do the set justice; when you build it you really can feel that the designer had a lot of fun with it (not to mention did a kick-butt job), and it will make you appreciate the detail in the buildings a whole lot more. Lego doesn't do micro builds that much, and after completing the set you will be hungry for more.
The Completed Model
Once you finish building, you are left with five excellent models. The set does lack the playability of minifigure scale sets, but I still found myself fooling around with the buildings trying to find the best arrangement for a good twenty minutes (I settled on the one above). Real modulars are instantly impressive due to their size but only upon closer examination is the detail seen. With the mini modulars, the high detail is apparent from first glance, making it a great desktop display for AFOLs. Unfortunately I do not have a full size modular to compare them to size-wise, but this picture from the BrickBlogger gives you an idea of how the buildings live up to their bigger brothers:
 
 
Nice, right? Even the backs of the building remain true to their larger forms - I really like the fire escape on the Green Grocer and you may or may not have noticed already that each mini modulars' 8x8 plate base is the same color as their inspiration's base plate (normal modulars are built on 32x32 baseplates), which is why some are different colors than each other. The picture below shows off the generous amount of extras:

Cafe Corner (Based on 10182)

First up is my personal favorite of the five, Cafe Corner. The full size model of this sucker costs you over 1000 bucks with current market prices and contains over 2000 pieces but this fist-sized rendition uses probably a tenth of those pieces. The construction is fun and introduces builders to some of the techniques that will be used throughout the rest of the models like the SNOT used on the second floor or the teeth used as windows. It's a genius creation and a worthy cornerstone to the set. It should be noted  that it contains the only two exclusive pieces in the model, the printed "HOTEL" 1x6 plate and 6 1x2 reddish brown plates with door rails. Well technically, the reddish brown plates do appear in another set, the Comic-Con Bag End, but I thought it would be worth mentioning. A great start to a great set!            
Market Street (Based on 10190)

The second model is a rendition of the 2007 Factory exclusive, Market Street. Like Cafe Corner, the original has appreciated nicely and fetches bids in the quadruple digits. Including it in the set caused a bit of controversy among Lego fans who insisted it was not a true modular because it was released under the Factory line. I always found 10190 Market Street to be the most messy  of the modulars, and the mini version's clean lines do a lot to correct this. Since all three floors are built with the same SNOT technique, it is the only one that you can break apart into each floor. It has really grown on me since I built it, but it does seem like the proportions have been stretched a bit from the original to make it seem more like an Amsterdam canal house; tall and skinny. Which is totally fine, but seems like a bit of a blip in the otherwise authentic representation of the building.
Green Grocer (Based on 10185)

Now we come to the Green Grocer, which was voted as the favorite modular  of AFOLs on Eurobricks. It has lots of cool details like the fruit basket out front and the fire hydrant (that's what the 2 red studs are out front if you're wondering) and is another solid build (with lots of delicious 1x1 clear bricks!). My only gripe is that the upper window doesn't have any glass in it. I know, it's just nitpicking considering everything else is pretty much perfect and they would have to make a new glass piece to fit it, but it makes the model feel incomplete. Excellent build, otherwise.
           Fire Brigade (Based on 10197)

Fire Brigade is the fourth installment in the set. It is quite impressive like the others, but I'd say it has the worst build (mostly 1x1 plate stacking, which gets annoying after awhile), and the bell roof is ridiculously oversized (if you applied that proportion to the real set, the bell roof would be 16 studs wide instead of 8). If you can get over that, it's just another top notch mini-build. 10197 has been making significant buzz in the investing world recently as it appears to be finally retiring after a 4 year run (all the above ones have already retired), making it an even more valuable addition to this set. 
Grand Emporium (Based on 10211)

The grand finale in this epic micro building symphony is the Grand Emporium. The full scale model has been criticized here and there for being too bland, but the mini model doesn't suffer from that problem. The second and third floor windows are a bit repetitive, yes, but the creation has enough details to recover (window cleaners, billboard, flags, ice cream stand, mail box, etc.). Like the fullscale one, it really looks like a decked out Macy's store (or the Bay for us Canadians). If you are looking for trans green windows in the real model, you can stop because there aren't any. There wasn't enough space to accurately represent both the clear windows and dark green trimming in the model, so I guess they combined the two to just make trans dark green windows. Smart move in my opinion, and superb finish to the set. Yeesh, I'm running out of positive adjectives to describe this set!
Well, there you go. It's a beautiful set, and like I said before any (or all) of the five models make for great desk displays at work or home (even teasing coworkers will want to check them out). The price is a bit of a drawback, but piece wise, it's excellent value at 5.8 cents per piece. You may be surprised that the set is bigger than sets like 10213 Shuttle Adventure (1204 pcs, 8.3c per piece) piece wise. That said, a person arguing for price per gram to become the standard for calculating value would point to this set as an example, as most pieces are tiny and you aren't necessarily getting more plastic even though you are getting more pieces (it is 8.03 cents per gram compared to 10213 Shuttle Adventure's 5.1 cents per gram). I would give the set a 8.5/10. It's a must have for AFOLs and building-savvy KFOLs, especially those who always wanted a modular but found them to expensive. It's a standalone set and won't fit into your regular city, but that's fine because it's remarkable by itself.

Investment Analysis
So, it makes a great display piece, but does it have what it takes to stand out in the aftermarket? I would definitely think so, for a variety of reasons. Firstly, the set is exclusive within being exclusive (exclusiception, anyone?), as it is restricted to only Lego VIP members and sold only from Lego directly. I'd estimate that the production for the set is in the tens of thousands. Additionally, it had only been available for about a year until last week (Dec. 2013) when it went out of stock on Lego.com worldwide, after being on discount for about a month. If it doesn't come back in stock (which seems likely or else it would not have been discounted), that is relatively short production run for an exclusive, especially a modular-related exclusive.
Secondly, not only is the set a distinct representation of one of the most praised and poplular themes among AFOLs - the modulars - but it is very rare for Lego to release microscale sets (if you'd like to learn more about modulars as investments, check out this article by FCBarcelona101: http://www.brickpicker.com/lego-modulars-still-worthy-investments/). To get an idea of the kind of growth that this will set receives come its EOL, let's look at the returns of similar sets. The chart below compares the set to the growth experienced by the full scale modulars it features, and three exclusive microscale factory sets from 2005:

The chart shows that retired sets similar to 10230 Mini Modulars have performed extraordinarily, often holding double digit CAGRs (Compounded Annual Growth Rates). 5526 Skyline, which is probably the most similar set as it is also made up of microscale renditions of existing source material like the statue of liberty, has seen huge growth, and the three retired modulars featured in the set are the holy grails of Lego investing. Granted, 5525 and 5524 haven't performed that well but I would consider the appeal and building techniques of the Mini Modulars far superior.
Another thing that should be mentioned is that Lego is likely to release another Mini Modular set next year when they have another five modulars to miniaturize. The serial appeal worked wonders for the original modular  line, and I think if they released another it would without a doubt raise the popularity of 10230.
Part-outters would definitely be able to profit with the set simply because of its low price per piece ratio of 5.8 cents per piece, despite its lack of many exclusive parts, but at this point I would advise against parting out the set in favor of selling it sealed. Due to its AFOL appeal, interesting building techniques, unique microscale medium, exclusivity, and ties to the original modular line, I think very good things are in store for this set, and will predict a rough 5-year CAGR of 27.5%, resulting in a value of $269.51 in 2018.

Depending on how accurately I estimated the appeal of the set, it could go higher or lower, but this mini set is definitely packed with some mega potential. Get 'em before they're gone!
 
Collectible Minifigures (CMFs) – they have a lot to answer for, don’t they? I’m sure I’m not the only one who has been drawn back into the grips of TLG by these ‘cheap’ Lego sets? ‘Cheap’ in inverted commas because you never buy one, do you? Every man has a part of his brain dedicated to hoarding and collecting and ‘having the full set’ – every kid does too. CMFs are the work of some scheming genius.
The Guardian printed an article in 2011 on the success and effect of the CMF series:
“Lego said the runaway success of a range of £2 lucky dip figurines aimed at those with pocket money to burn had provided the building blocks for a record year for the Danish toymaker.
With a cast of characters that includes an Egyptian queen and an evil dwarf, "Minifigures" have taken UK playgrounds by storm, helping the brand to report growth of more than 10% in the UK for the six months to 30 June.
Drew Brazer, UK managing director, said the inexpensive Minifigures were "accessible" toys for children to collect.”
According to the free ‘Minifigs Collector’ app (search your app store) and their useful statistics section I know that I have 71 of all 186 Collectible Minifigures (38%) which seems not many, except for the fact I have 71 of the things. Even at retail price (£1.99 here in the UK) I’ve spent £141.29 (some I’ve paid a little more for, although I NEVER pay much more than the original RRP) – in my books that’s a fair bit of cash.
So what’s the draw? Well, I know what the draw is for me, and in presenting to you ‘The Best Collectible Minifigures of All Time’ I hope to present my case as to why the CMFs have done so well,  and why I (and you) have so many of them. To provide some method, I am going to choose one minifigure per series (a la Silent Mode’s original blog post).
Series 1 (2010)

Winner: Super Wrestler
Why? I’m not even a wrestling fan and never have been but the quirky blue head element with the printed face and mask is highly appealing in its originality. There are plenty of other contenders in this, the original series; a caveman, a zombie, a ninja, a cowboy...
The diver and the skater both seem a bit boring considering both have been done before in various themes.
Series 2 (2010)

Winner: Spartan Warrior
3 years after an interest in Sparta was reignited by the film ‘300’ this figure was bound to be popular with its iconic (and never seen before) Greek helmet element and muscular printed torso. Which movie or comic fan or history buff wouldn’t want a mini replica of King Leonidas on their shelf? I do (and I haven’t got him yet). Again, many contenders in this early series with a green-faced witch, a vampire, a mime (and his 3 different heads and beret) and a mariachi guy (a new sombrero and maracas).
There were some pretty weak figures here too: a life guard/Baywatch babe, a weightlifter, a pop star to name the main culprits despite all having new elements (a float, a barbell and a microphone respectively).
Series 3 (2011)

Winner: Rapper
An easy one for me, as a Hip Hop fan. With his color-coordinated new-style baseball cap, microphone and boombox what more could you want? Since Kanye West re-popularized Shutter Shades in 2007 they were everywhere, particularly during the recent-to-series-3 2010 World Cup – to have a Lego head wearing Shutters? That’s cool.
The other better figures are the Pilot, the Fisherman, the Elf and the highly original Gorilla Suit Guy.
Series 3 does seem to be the weakest series so far – a male ‘Tribal Chief’ (Lego had these way back in the nineties in the Western theme), a female snowboarder (the Sports theme was full of these), a weird ‘Space Villain’ (looks like the result of a 4 year old playing with minifigure parts despite its cool Blacktron reference), a boring sumo wrestler, a female tennis player (yawn) and a race car driver (how many of these has Lego produced before?).
Series 4 (2011)

Winner: The Monster
It was between the HAZMET Guy (even though I can only guess at what one is in real life) and The Monster won for me. I like films and literature so having Shelley’s Frankenstein’s Monster in minifigure form is a very good thing. It must be the case that the success of figures such as this one, the Werewolf (series 4), the Crazy Scientist (also series 4), the Zombie (series 1), the Mummy (series 3) and the Witch and the Vampire (both series 2) prompted the very popular 2012 Monster Fighters Theme as all of these figures reappear in another form in the sets.
A fairly strong series all in all with the presence of ANOTHER skateboarder, a footballer and a female surfer being the main let-downs (all re-hashes of previous theme figures, albeit with a little more realism and style). The Artist and Kimono Girl receive honourable mentions here.
Series 1-4: A Summary
Why did I choose the figures I chose? Two simple reasons it boils down to:
1) the figure connects to my personal interests.
2) the figure contains new or interesting elements.
As we go through the next series, we will see if this continues to be the case. Meanwhile, from series 1-4, which are your favorite minifigures and why?
So, you have been buying LEGO sets non stop over the past few months, maybe even years, and you have noticed your Brickfolio has increased in value by 10,000% (exaggerating just a bit here). Or maybe you are a short term investor looking to make some "quick" money to fund your own collection or long term investing choices. It can be sort of difficult to decide how to start selling some of your inventory, as well as where to get the most cost effective materials so that you end up with more money in your pocket and less in other people's, So I decided to write this very basic guide to help some of you start selling ASAP! Hope you find it useful.
Note: I will continue making the assumption that you will be selling your sets on eBay, as that is by far the most common marketplace talked about in the forum.
1- Materials
   One of the most important decisions you have to make before you start listing items left and right is where to get your materials. Things like packing paper, boxes, envelopes and so on are an essential part of your LEGO business, and you will need to carefully evaluate exactly what you need and where to get it for the lowest price possible.
First off, you need to evaluate what's the core of your business inventory, as shipping/packing materials will vary greatly from seller to seller. If most of your inventory consists of polybags or loose minifigures, then most of of your packages will need to be bubble mailers and small ziploc style bags. On the other hand, people who focus on set will have to research a little bit more and purchase a variety of boxes that fit a particular LEGO set size.
Following you will find a list of what I currently use for each particular type of item in my inventory, as well as a small description and where to get them (With their own BP Affiliate link in case you decide to purchase!)
Polybags, loose minifigures and individual bricks/parts These three categories fit perfectly under one section, as they often require the exact same amount of effort as well as shipping materials. If you have sold any of the three items mentioned above, you know that most of the time you will need to work with tight profit margins, hence the importance of picking the right vendor and quantity. Most of the time, this involves purchasing larger quantities even when you might not have an immediate need for all.
Here are my choices:
- 2x2 Self lock bags ($ 6.86 / 1,000 units / $ 0.007 per unit)

As you can see, these little bags are extremely economical once you calculate the price per unit, basically adding less than 1 cent per sale. Of course, these are not essential to be able to ship figures or bricks, but I would strongly encourage you to give them a chance for a couple of reasons. First, depending on the type of envelope you use, your minifigures may not be sufficiently protected against the elements (rain, etc); this can have a very negative effect on the condition of the figure, especially those that include unique elements like capes and such. Second, these little bags make a seller look more professional and careful in the eyes of the buyer, a couple of factors that might help you with future sales.
- 4x8 Kraft Bubble Mailers ( $12.10 / 100 units / $ 0.12 per unit)

Unlike the previous item, this is one thing you really can't avoid having. There is no best way to mail small items than small bubble mailers, as they require very little postage and help protect your items from damage during shipping. At around $ 0.12 per mailer, I really believe you can't go wrong with these, and it would make more sense to even get the 500 ct if you really have that much in figures or bricks. It is important to note that 4x8 mailers can also be used to ship most polybags, while you might need to get a larger mailer for special ones like the mini Camper Van.
Sets With sets, things get a little bit tricky as there are multiple different sizes that make selecting a proper box a little more time consuming. Thankfully, some sizes will allow you to fit a variety of them without needing to get 3 or 4 different types of boxes, and that's personally they way I have chose to go with in order to reduce the time I spend worrying about that. I deal mostly with 28x16x7 boxes that fit most sets in the medium to large range, while recycling and using USPS free supplies to ship the smaller sets.
There has been a lot of talk about where to buy shipping boxes, and we usually hear about Uline, Staples or similar stores. If you are going to buy more than 20 boxes I would definitely recommend to order at Staples to pick them up in store for free, while you can always choose either them or Uline if you are getting a pretty large order shipped  in order to spread out shipping costs.
Most of the time though, small to medium sellers may need less than 100 boxes, and for that amount Amazon actually offers a nice option to purchase them (usually with Prime shipping) for pretty much the same price as bulk sellers like Uline. If you check the link below, you will be able to purchase 20 boxes (28*16*7) for around $45. These are pretty good quality and the ones I personally use more often.
- 28x16x7 Shipping Boxes ($44.87 / 20 units / $2.24 per unit)

Compare to Uline ($47.8 same Qty and Size)
- Scotch Shipping Tape ( $ 9.97 / 4 Rolls (215 yards total) / $2.49 per unit)

Another essential item, shipping tape. I have tried a variety of different brands and types and have found that this particular one is the one I liked the most. It might not be the cheapest one out there, especially if you search on eBay and get some generic tape, but they match what I'm looking for in respects to quality and duration. Unlike some other brands, I really don't need to use that much tape to completely secure  a heavy shipping box, and that gives me the peace of mind it will get safely to its destination.
As said before, you will be able to find cheaper versions out there, but in my opinion the quality of most is sub-par.
Misc. The following is completely optional and not really needed, but I have been using it for a while and find that it saves me time and sort of streamlines the process of packing both sets or smaller items.
- Avery shipping labels ($ 26.95 / 200 ct / $ 0.13 per unit)

These labels are really high quality, and even though they only come in the 200 ct packet for Laser printer (50 ct for inkjet) I have been using them on my inkjet printer for quite a while with no problem whatsoever. I really like to just print the label and immediately paste it on the package without having to tape over the label to attach it, and these have the added bonus of blocking any other label previously applied to the box. Basically, you can recycle any of the boxes you receive by simply pasting the new label over the old one. (Not all self adhesive labels do this well). For an extra 13 cents per sale, I find them a really good value.
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And that's it for now. Again, these are the materials I personally use, so feel free to add your own recommendations in the comments section. I hope that at least some of our most new sellers are able to benefit from this basic information.
Thanks for reading
While lurking in the shadows of this site I've read many differing takes on the ins and outs of investing in LEGO. The majority of those opinions center arround either long term investing or short term flipping and which sets are best suited for either. While those are both worthy endevours and I would not discourage anyone from either pursuit one angle of investing seems to be overlooked in most of the posts that I have seen. The missing strategy is buying LEGO in bulk. Where to get it, what to do with it, and how to use it to build your investment. Just as with any other investment strategy bulk has its own pros and cons, I hope to cover a few of them here. Full disclosure, I began my money making career on LEGO by flipping bulk lots and still spend much of my investing resources doing so.
I've always prefered bad news first so lets start with the cons:
1) TIME. With bulk, in general terms, the more time you spend on it the more money you make. At a bare minimum any bulk lot needs at least a simple hose down and a quick sort to remove as many non LEGO as possible. A fbulk lot treated in that manner would bring, on average, $5.00 per pound on eBay. To make any real money you need to spend the time to sort. Bricks sorted by color usually bring around $10.00 per pound. This assumes that you removed all minifigs and minifig parts. The real money in bulk is made by bringing sets back from the dead. The last loose 3181 I sold went for $46.00, had I sold it by weight I could have expected about $7.50. It took about 3 hours of work to sort/find all the pieces, but the extra return made up for it.
2) Bulk is DIRTY. The last lot I bought smelled faintly of cat urine. I always wear gloves at first and wash using dish soap in a 5 gallon bucket, then rinse in a pasta strainer that is market LEGO so I don't use it for food. Some people wash in a sink or bathtub, but I have seen how hard it is to clear a clog. Also make sure to dry your LEGO. They will get moldy. Special note about bleach. DO NOT USE BLEACH. It will make your LEGO brittle and worthless.
3) Hard to find/Competition. Good bulk lots can be difficult to find. As more people discover how much their old toys are worth this will only get worse. My primary tool for finding lots is Craigslist. With all its quirks and scams I've found it provides the most consistant results. Lots can also be found on eBay or bricklink, but you will pay more for them. I have yet to travel around to random garage/yard/rumage sales, but they also have potential to yield results.
4) Unknown results. With bulk you never really know what you have until you dig in. Although, that's also one of the things that I like about it.
And now for the positive aspects.
1) Higher returns. The best bulk lot I ever found I paid $50 for. It consisted of 5 kitchen trash bags full of bricks. When I was done with it, after fees, I made $1,447. Time wise, I spent 80 hours sorting, cleaning and building. I will not touch a bulk lot unless I think I can make 3 times my investment. Most times when all sorting is done and fees are paid I hope to make about $15 per hour.
2) Find COOL sets. I have 2 kids, a wife, and a mortgage. I don't have much in the way of disposable income, as such, I could never afford 10144, 6211, 7261, 7783, 6210, 4848, 4842...You get the idea. I have built all of those and more out of various lots that I have found. Once in a while I've found a gem that I couldn't part with such as a pristine (loose) 4195 that now holds a place of prominence above a bookcase.
3) Low entry price. With patience a bulk lot can be found for almost any budget. Start small and reinvest the profits to work up to larger/better lots.
4) Learn about LEGO. Part of the fun in building large numbers of sets is learning about LEGO. You start to see similarities between sets like the builds of 7260 and 7259. You eventualy can tell a Mega Blok by color and  can spot a valuable minifig (or a fake) a mile away.
I'm sure that I've missed a ton on each side and the pros and cons of mint sets vs random bulk can be argued for ever, but for those just getting into investing in LEGO or those with limited funds bulk lots offer a viable alternative to start and a way to grow equity to invest in the more expensive boxed sets.
For those of you who read my post about ebay powerselling (from what feels like 10 years ago) you'll note I had grand ambitions to become a powerseller by this Christmas season to reduce the cut ebay takes from each sale.  I planned on adding more polybags, smaller sets and the like to boost my total sales numbers.  I didn't have enough complete sets that were retired or purchased sufficiently below retail (Canadian retail) to move, so I was hoping to go smaller and faster, Ninjago-like, if you will, on my quest to get my total sales over 100 in the year over year period.  What follows is a cautionary tale:
Early 2013: All is well!  I scored loads of polybags at cheap prices, tried to choose ones that I thought were cool or had minifigs.  I began listing them and started to make a few sales.  I smiled a lot, despite the cold weather, and visions of success in 10 or so short months seemed imminent, a foregone conclusion.
Spring 2013: My decision to stock up on Avengers polys, a few Friends polys and Monster Fighters polys is paying off.  I've boosted month over month sales to about 45-50 and am halfway to my goal with a whole lot of time left.
Late Spring 2013: We had a baby.  I added another part time job.  We decided to quickly have me finish the basement renovations so that we could put our house for sale in the future as babies require almost as much storage as a part-time Lego business.  I had some sets to part out with minifigs that were reasonably desirable and could quickly add to my selling totals, but somehow that never happened.  I suspect it was baby related.
Fall 2013: I was around 82 total sales in year over year, had a finished basement but powerselling status seemed unreachable.  I started to list bigger sets for the holidays anyway, both on my account and my wife's, admitting defeat.
I never lost money, and in fact made some sweet bank this holiday season, but I didn't maximize my Lego ROI%, falling short of becoming a Powerseller.  In a perfect world, those Harry Potter Castle sales would have left a little more money in my pocket rather than in Mr. Ebay's, but a few too many challenges came up during the year to derail me.
How can this apply to you?  I suppose the Lego investing lesson to take away is that the plans you lay from year to year regarding investing/flipping/holding/parting out, etc., can be completely changed in ways you could never imagine when you make the initial purchases or decisions.  I tend to preach conservative investing, despite how enticing sales & deals are.  You have no idea what the future holds and having a manageable and reasonable plan will allow you to still make profits even if things don't go according to plan.
Veegs
Welcome back to the November 2013 entry of best selling LEGO sets based on ebay data. As I mentioned last time, I will only be commenting on those sets that are completely new to the Top 10 listing, as it talking about the original Minecraft set or the Millenium Falcon gets a little repetitive after a couple times.
Interesting about this list is that we can actually starting watching some trends regarding sets that may become very popular during the month of December, and in some way help us predict which have some "flipping" potential. This year's shopping season is almost over, but by comparing this November data against December's we should have a pretty good idea of how useful this may turn out to be in 2014.
November 2013 Top Ten
1-

636 Sold (New)
One of the many promotional mini sets released during the holiday season by LEGO, there is really no surprise this nice set made its way to the top of the November Top 10. As it happens with sets from the Winter Village theme, there is a really big demand for this kind of build during these months, as people really get into building Christmas displays while others take advantage of selling the set to effectively reduce the price of their "actual" purchases.
2-

611 Sold (New)
3-

579 Sold (New)
One of the most unique and specialized sets ever released by TLG, in my opinion. This proved to be extremely popular during its very short run both with investors, flippers and LEGO fans in general (with some architect buffs thrown in the mix as well). It's really impressive that Architecture Studio managed to place third in the list surpassing other well known staples like the 7965 Millenium Falcon and the 2 new Minecraft sets. At this point, you'll be really lucky if you can find one at MSRP.
4-

339 Sold (New)
As a very distant fourth position we find the 2010 version of the SW Advent Calendar. Personally, I find it kind of surprising that the older version managed to be on this month's Top 10 while the 2013 version didn't. I am really not a follower of this particular line of sets, but I assume that a big part is due to the fact that you could still find this version at deep discounts at some retailers, and it would ultimately serve the same purpose as 2013's. Another related factor could be that buyers found the new version's mini builds less appealing, but I defer to the calendar fans to confirm or dispute this.
5-

319 Sold (New)
Riding on the success of the original model, LEGO decided to produce a couple more Minecraft models that proved to be an instant hit (as expected). Even though the original model continues to be a very distant "winner", The Village positioned itself as the 2nd best of the theme surpassing The Nether (#11). I actually prefer the latter, but it seems the I'm in the minority.
6-

284 Sold (New)
7-

256 Sold (New)
This entry actually confirms that for some reason the older Advent Calendars seem to sell way better than current versions, at least based on what it happened during this season.
8-

228 Sold (New)
9-

249 Sold (New)
One of the nice surprises of the year is the confirmation of the Friends theme as an extremely successful line of sets. If you have been shopping in B&M stores this season, you probably noticed that almost every single set from the line had completely disappeared from the shelves. The Dolphin Cruiser will definitely place somewhere in December's Top 10.
10-

216 Sold (New)
Had this list been September's and this little polybag would have been just 6 sales away from taking the first position. The mini version of the Camper Van is probably one of the best designs for a promotional item ever released, and fits perfectly when displayed along its larger and equally impressive brother. This excellent design proved its popularity among LEGO fans, and made me wish more mini sets like this were released more often. I would personally enjoy a mini version of the soon to be released Maersk Triple-E.
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This ends our Top 10 for November, until next time!
Thanks for reading.
I think at this point, we all know about all the scams that exist out there that we must tread as Lego buyers: Drop shippers, shipping scammers on Ebay, Craigslist scammers who want you to wire them money, and even companies that are somwhat deceitful in their practices.
But there are more parts to being safe as a Lego Investor/Collector that we must be aware of: CyberSpace issues. It seems silly that this amazing thing called the internet has brought us all of this joy, made this site possible, and absolutely changed the way we do everything to do with our money, could also be the thing that ruins us completely. I am a member in this industry as a networking engineer. I have studied CyberSecurity quite a bit and it is something I want to eventually pursue as a higher level of education in my field. It is a fascinating field and we are in the golden age of CyberSpace growth.
However, the unfortunate realization of living through this era in technology is how woefully behind the Cyber criminals we all are. For one, everyone has to react to the new things they do. We wont be able to just guess what they are going to do next: they are calling all the shots. On top of this, our economic systems, our credit systems, and most of our business industry is not built to cope with how fast people are coming up with ways to game the system.
So do we just shut down and not buy on the internet? Of course not, but we can be smart before making certain decisions. And most importantly, we can be vigilant for the inevitable times that this happens and be ready to act to correct any issues we come across. Here are some thoughts in this direction:
Don't use any service unless you know it is secure.
This is a tough one; how will you ever know for sure? Well, you won't. But you can make a pretty good decision with a little bit of research. Paypal and Ebay both offer buyer and seller protection. They both have great track records in the field as well. Things like Western Union and other money wiring services have a history of being scam vehicles and the companies themselves have a track record for saying "its not our problem". Only use things you trust for your transactions.
Do not put in purchasing and credit card information into a website on a Public WiFi connection
This is one most people don't think about. You are sitting at StarBucks and you jump on WiFi. See a great deal on BP deals page and click the link. You put in all your credit card information and make the purchase.
Unfortunately the guy next to you, with little effort at all, can see every little bit of information you type into your PC or phone with free programs downloaded on the internet. Its unbelievable how easy it is for someone to do this. Yes you are protected by your credit card company most likely, but is it worth the trouble thinking about it?
In general just avoid it. If you are on your phone, it is worth switching to data for the purchase.
Set up credit card alerts
This is a extremely simple one with how many people have the ability to text on their phones. I don't know an actual statistic, but I would say the majority of people on this site who use credit cards a lot have had a fraudulent charge once or twice. My wife's card was stolen out of her supposed-to-be-locked classroom at school once, and before we knew it they had rattled off a grand in purchases. Most credit card companies now have pretty robust alert systems. Everytime I make a purchase, my credit card companies texts me and says my card was authorized for this amount of money at this location. I immediately know if something is not right and can actually reply and say "this isn't me!".
I can also keep better track of what my Wife is buying
Get a credit monitoring service
These are annoying. The credit monitoring and reporting companies have about turned into insurance companies as far as commercials go - except no one can beat Geicos Hump Day. They do serve a great purpose though. Whenever I do anything that has an impact on my credit (or if someone else does) I immediately get an alert of exact what the inquiry was about. I pay 10$ a month for it and it is very much worth it.
My wife did not have it and someone stole her identity and massacred her credit. It wasn't her, so no big deal right? Heh - I wish. It took more than a year to get her credit fixed back to where it was supposed to be. This being right before we were about to buy a house, we had to drop her from the loan because she was dragging my credit down!
Think about the effect this could have on you if it happened. All of a sudden, your credit cards get frozen, you can't open any new ones, and you can't purchase those lego sets like you used to. Most monitoring services also offer services where they will help you fix credit problems much quicker than you could ever do on your own.
Be smart with your passwords for all those sales sites
So many people carrying legos now means more and more people have your personal information from all those sweet deals you have gotten. Unfortunately, we just have to trust them with it.
However, we can put ourselves into position to keep ourselves as safe as possible. Passwords really come into this. Everyone has heard it - change your passwords every 90 days, make sure they have special characters, blah, blah, blah. I am not preaching that at all.
Actually you should absolutely use a password that is easy to remember. And unfortunately, special characters and numbers really don't mean a lot at all to a password's security. Passwords are normally cracked when attackers steal the payload of a password exchange between a site and a user and run a password cracking program on it. So understanding how this works is important. In most programs, you give the application a list of common possible words or letters and then let it try all its possible combinations. For example, some may feel this is a good password:
p@ssw0rd!
By adding special characters into the application, a password like the above could be broken within less than a minute in most cases.
Whats the answer? More complicated? Simple actually : longer. The more letters in a password, the more time (exponentially) it takes to crack it (which means people give up). So I use phrases for passwords - spaces included. Consider:
I love to use brickpicker for lego prices
A password like the above is insanely more secure, even without special characters, and most people don't insert spaces into password cracking applications by default. Plus they are really easy to remember!
On top of this, do not use the same password for every site - or at least spread it around pretty well. If you do, one is hacked - they all could be. Now maybe the attacker wont know you are on entertainment earth and toysrus.com - but the first thing someone does when they hack a google password is take the same user and password and pop it into paypal, ebay, major bank sites, etc. Easier to just avoid these problems.
Conclusion
Its an unsafe world in general, and we have to live with it. There are many more ways things can go sour for people like us who spend a lot of money, and most likely have a lot of credit and spending habits that are harder to track. But by being vigilante, we put ourselves in a position to prevent issues from happening, and ultimately be able to react when they do. Though Cyber space has brought all these new worries upon us, we still have the Human intelligence to stay ahead if we consider and study the consequences of not doing so.
Thanks for reading.
Welcome to the second installment of a series of articles I am putting together called “The Superior Market - eBay vs. BrickLink”. The purpose of this type of article is to compare the average sale prices of LEGO sets over the last 5 months. These numbers are the final sale prices, according to data acquired from BrickLink and BrickPicker.
Some readers were a little confused on the purpose of the first article, which you can read at: http://www.brickpicker.com/forum/index.php/blog/15/entry-430-the-superior-market-ebay-vs-bricklink-msrp-001-999/. I analyze the market prices that each respective site sells at. It does not take into account how easy it is to list, whether or not it is a more “friendly” site, and quantity of sales. Perhaps in the future, an analysis is possible, but at this point, it is purely on sale prices.
I am trying my hardest to keep the sets averaged as unbiased as possible, and if you have any concerns over this matter, by all means, post what sets you want analyzed in the next article! There will be 25 sets analyzed, to try to draw together a better picture of which market has higher sale prices. Fees are not taken into account in the table below.
Ladies and gentlemen...Please enjoy the second installment of The Superior Market - eBay vs. BrickLink - MSRP $10.00-$24.99!
If the table is a little small, please click on the image, and a zoomed in version will appear. * Values represent average sale prices from May 2013 to September 2013
A Breif Analysis: On average, sets that were sold for a higher price on eBay sold for 17.02% more, and on BrickLink 13.03% more. In addition, 56% of sets sold for a higher price on eBay, signifying a very close tie between both markets.
The Bigger Picture: When looking at these numbers of 17.02% and 13.03%, we are only just scraping the surface of what the numbers show. As a buyer, these two percentages are really the only thing that matter - what website has higher sale prices, not including any additional shipping costs. As a seller, on the other hand, we must take into account a variety of other costs: site, and PayPal fees. eBay charges 10% on all transactions, capping at $200 of fees. 99% of the time, PayPal is used to transfer money from the buyer to the seller, which costs $0.30 per transaction along with 2.9% on the total transaction. This brings the total fee percentage to 12.9% plus $0.30.
Of course, if you are one of the “big boys” on eBay and have acheived Top Rated Seller, 20% of the final eBay fees are taken off, but you are bound to certain shipping and handling time restrictions. If so, eBay fees cost 8%, not including PayPal fees, which are constant. In this case, fees take a total of 10.9% of your final cost, plus an additional $0.30.
BrickLink on the other hand, charges 3% on all orders costing $500 USD or less, and including 2.9% and $0.30 in fees, you pay a total of 5.9% + $0.30 in fees.
Let’s take another look at the numbers and do a re-analysis…
Average of 17.02% higher prices on sets sold on eBay, and 13.03% on BrickLink. 56% of sets analysed sold for more on eBay. Now let’s subtract each fee percentage to the percentages we already have (17.02% and 13.03%), to see whether or not eBay actually sells for more when fees are taken into account.
eBay: 17.02% - (10% + 2.9% + $0.30) = 4.12% + $0.30
BrickLink: 13.03% - (3% +2.9% + $0.30) = 7.13% + $0.30
In Conclusion: Overall, BrickLink sales actually surpassed seller profitability of eBay sales by 3.01%, quite contrary to the sale prices.
I hope you learned something by reading this installment, and you can definitely expect installment 3 to be released in the near future!!
Sources:
eBay Standard Selling Fees BrickLink Selling Fees Installment #1: $0.99-$9.99

 

 
So I wanted to write up another article about drop-shipping scams, specifically on Ebay, that looked more at the problems it causes to everyone, not just the people directly involved. I will spare you the long explanations of drop-shipping scams and how they work as they are covered in great detail in two articles shown below:
Drop Shipping Lego: How to Avoid Being Scammed – By Talon http://blog.brickpicker.com/drop-shipping-lego-how-to-avoid-being-scammed/
Lego Larcency: Scams, Schemes, and Shady Practices – By Ed Mack http://blog.brickpicker.com/lego-larcency-scams-schemes-and-shady-sales-practices/
A quick explanation of a drop-shipping scam: Someone sells a set on Ebay or another site, usually for less money than the retail or normal price of the set. Once the listing has sold, the seller purchases the set fraudulently from somewhere like Lego.com, Walmart, Target, etc. and has it shipped directly to the buyers residence. By fraudulently, I mean using a stolen credit card, a credit card opened in someone else's name, or through other types of identity theft. In this article, I wanted to discuss more about the effects after it happens and how it affects everyone.
Before I start, I want to make it clear that these are my opinions that I fully believe in. You are absolutely welcome to disagree with them – and you may be right. Please, if you do, do not take offense to anything I said. Voice your opinion. It is only in debate and discussion that we become more intelligent. Read the addendum's as I would like to personally hear everyone's opinion.
It may be human nature, but I think a lot of people (myself included) are like the 4 main characters of Seinfeld in certain situations. We are friendly, decent people, who are really only concerned with ourselves. This doesn't mean we don't care about other people, but more that we are generally unconcerned with things that happen unless we are directly involved. One of my favorite Seinfeld episodes, the series finale, depicted this in a perfect light. Jerry and the gang were walking down the road when they witness a person being robbed. They shrug it off and walk away. Eventually, they are arrested for breaking the “Good Samaritan” law that stated if a person witnessed a crime, they must intervene in some way.
I know if I was walking down the street and saw someone being robbed, I would be very hesitant to run over and just immediately involve myself – and I am sure most of you would feel the same way. But, imagine if you recognize the person committing the crime. It happens to be someone you walk by every day on the way home. At any point in time, you could be involved. There is no guarantee you ever will be, but suddenly the situation has changed. It now directly matters to you this person is stopped and caught.
This is a strong example, but can help illustrate the points some of us bring up about drop shipping scams and the issues that arise from them. If you use Ebay, if you use BrickPicker, and if you use a bank, all of these things affect you much more directly than you may understand. Hopefully after reading this, it will allow you to put in perspective some of the issues that arise from not being the "Good Samaritan". It is not only that I discourage you ever knowingly buying one of these listings, but avoiding the situation completely, and possibly taking action to help defend others. Here are the different people involved directly and indirectly by this epidemic and how they are affected:
The Victims of the Fraud:
This one is fairly obvious – if someone is using stolen credit cards to purchase items fraudulently, then the people who's credit card/identity is stolen will eventually have to deal with that. Yes, some people have credit cards that protect them from fraud or help them recover losses, but the victims are still affected by the fraud's occurrence. It means calling credit card companies, checking your credit report (which is not free though it is supposed to be) constantly for the next several months, calling the IRS to make sure nothing else has been stolen, and the flat out worry every time you put your hand on your wallet. If you have ever been the victim of identity theft, you know what I am talking about. Personally, my wife had her identity stolen and the person destroyed her credit. It took her 6 months to sort it out, and there were some things we were told would never be pulled from the report.
How it affects you: It can happen to you. Most people think if a credit card is stolen, that person did something stupid like filled out a form online to win 20 free Ipads, 10 puppies, 3 enchiladas, and a van down by the river. It is flat out not true. You can have your credit card, identity, and much more stolen at any point in time.
I work for a large Networking company as a network engineer in a customer/business facing position. Everyday, I work in business' networks that are flat out insecure. Yeah, they have some dinky virus protection and a few passwords, but anyone who had an inch of network security training could easily break into their network and steal data. Many of these companies have credit card information stored on servers in these unsecured networks! If these are broken, it doesn't matter how smart the people that shopped with this company are – they go down as the company goes down. Don't believe me? Read on friend!
Anyone here heard of Sony? The Play Station Giant last year had their network broken into – and a good amount of the credit card information stolen because it was stored in PLAIN TEXT. Like the text you are reading. My card was there and was stolen with it. The fact is, as “safe” as anyone thinks they are, if you have ever typed your credit card information into a computer, you are at risk.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_Network_outage and its listed sources the internet.
Note: This is not to discourage anyone from using credit. Don't turn into a hermit, this is just a reality people need to understand. If you shrug it off when others are defrauded because you would "never fall for that" or "are protected", you are unfortunately very mistaken. If you have more questions and are not convinced you are at risk, feel free to PM me. I have quite a bit of experience and training in CyberSecurity, and I know some things that can make you cringe every time you log on to anything that uses the internet.
Why you should care: If you see this happening and say “who cares, it doesn't affect me”, wait until it does happen to you. Think about it in this way: Imagine you have something stolen from you. The person who stole it sells it to someone who knew it was stolen, but wanted it anyway because it was a great deal. The thief then returns to your house to steal more items, because he knows he has someone to sell to who could care less how he gets the items long as they get great prices. This is what you are doing if you don't care that you are purchasing an item on Ebay that is more than likely a scam.
The buyer who purchases the merchandise:
I will not cover this as in depth because the other two articles I mentioned gave specific examples. I don't want to reiterate those articles and those points because their articles deserve the traffic and they most likely stated it better than I did anyway. Basically though, if you purchase something that was originally bought fraudulently, it will most likely come in your name as if you made the purchase. For example, I recently received a purchase from Ebay that was shipped from the Lego store. The only thing on the invoice that was not a piece of my information was the credit card number. It looked like I just stole the credit card and purchased it!
If the police, credit card company, etc. investigate, they can seize the merchandise and question you about it at any time. Yes you are protected by Ebay or Paypal, but that doesn't mean it isn't a headache. If you think it isn't a headache, wait until you experience it. I have twice, and in one instance I had the original person whose card was stolen calling me trying to find out why I stole his identity!
How it affects you: If you shop on Ebay, you are susceptible to this. Are there sure fire ways to protect yourself? No. There are very good ways, covered in the two articles I mentioned, but there is no sure way to cover yourself. But the more these people are left to continue using the scam, the more scam items that are being listed. Eventually, there isn't a way to feel OK about buying anything anymore.
Why you should care: If you buy an item that you are fairly sure is involved in some type of scam, you are perpetuating this scam. You are encouraging people to continue defrauding people. If you sell sets, this is just competition against you that you can't compete with, because you aren't purchasing your sets with seemingly Monopoly money!
If you receive a set and notice it was drop-shipped, the seller paid more for the item than you did, and your name and information is on the invoice, act! Ask the seller about it! If you just say “Oh well, I got a good deal”, you are again encouraging the behavior. If you don't know what to do in this situation, I wrote an article on this very subject found here: http://blog.brickpicker.com/another-piece-of-information-about-lego-drop-ship-scams-what-to-do-if-you-have-already-fallen-for-it/
Anyone that uses BrickPicker:
Have you ever looked at the current market price for a set on BrickPicker? If you have, you have been affected by Ebay scams. BrickPicker pulls all of its market data from Ebay sales. If tons of people sell a set for less than it is worth because they are doing it fraudulently, this brings down the BrickPicker price to a level that is not actually a true representation of the market.
How it affects you: This was covered above, but think about this situation: You find a large quantity of a set in store on clearance for $50. You quickly check the BrickPicker price and it shows $60. You figure that there is no way to make enough money for it to be worth your while to pick them up. If this data is brought down by the fact that 50 new sets were sold for $40 fraudulently, it could hide the the true market value for the set is $70. You just missed aryone else.n awesome deal because of it. This is a very extreme example, but it is important to note.
Why you should care: This can easily be inferred from above. You want to have correct data to use when you search for sets. Think it will never get so bogged down that it will actually affect you? Take a look at 10225 R2D2 and the 10228 Haunted House recent sold listings for condition "new". You will see some pretty low prices, most likely drop shippers, bringing down the price for everyone else.
Anyone that uses Ebay:
If you use Ebay to sell or buy, you are negatively affected by this. This negatively affects all Ebay prices because these items are normally sold for less than the item's worth. Yes, there are times when someone sells a set for too cheap, or times when they just need the money, but the damaging ones are the brand new, MISB sets that are sold for used-like prices because they are not indicative of the "true" market.
How it affects you: Have you ever used the “completed listings” checkbox on Ebay to figure out what something has sold for? Let's say you are looking at a bunch of listings for a set you are selling and you list it for cheaper than it is worth because so many people are fraudulently selling it for cheaper. Similarly, if you are selling an item for the real market price and someone else is selling 20 sets for much cheaper, who will someone buy from?
On the other hand, you go to buy a set and you expect it for cheaper than you may actually get it. If you buy the cheapest listing, you are back to being directly in the line of the scam itself!
Why you should care: You are on this site, so clearly you like Lego. This all negatively affects Lego sales and the people who buy and sell them. If you use Ebay, you should want information and prices there to be correct. You should want to be able to purchase something with minimal worry that you are going to be involved in a scam, or contacted by the police.
Everyone who uses a Bank:
I don't want to get too much into high finance – for one I don't know everything about it, and I am not sure there is anyone that does – but banks in general offers things like “fraud protection” and “fraud coverage”. Basically, if someone steals your information and does something illegal with it, you are covered. Man doesn't that make you feel good? No reason to worry anymore.
That, unfortunately, is very short sited. It reminds me of another great Seinfeld episode where Kramer told Jerry that they could commit mg wrong.ail fraud because these big companies can just “write it off”. Jerry asked how, and Kramer said “I don't know, they just write it off”! IN the non TBS rerun world, that is not the case. Have you ever paid a credit card fee? Have you ever paid an ATM fee? Have you ever paid interest? Banks make money and are in the business to make money. They offer fraud protection as a way to help ease a customer's pain and get them to sign up for accounts and credit cards. And it is a good thing.
However, every time it happens, the bank takes a hit. Every hit it takes, the larger the Bank's expenses get, the more fees that are levied on those who use the bank. Those that never were involved in the fraud. Those that did nothing wrong.
How it affects you: Obviously, if you use a bank, you got my point in the original paragraph. But, let's say you don't. Have you ever purchased something from a store? Guess what they use: A bank . Which means they are charged all the fees from the fraud. This means they have to charge you more for their merchandise.
Why you should care: If you have any way of participating in the economy at all, you should care. This is one of the reasons why things get more expensive. This is why more and more people everyday are committing these types of scams. No one cares anymore because, hey, they are protected! And everyone hates banks right?
So what do we do? Buy nothing, never go out, and try not to ever interact with anything that takes voltage? No, just try to think before you purchase an item that is evident of a scam. Always ask questions. Always make sure pictures are there, the buyer has good feedback, the price is not “too good to be true”. Make sure the buyer isn't using a 5 day handling time. Ask for a picture of the item along with the listing Ebayer's ID on a piece of paper. Just use your brain – you are capable of telling the difference most of the time. If we work together, we can help put a stop to this. Don't use the fact that "it might not be a scam" to justify purchasing something at a good price. If it looks like a scam, even remotely, avoid it.
I want to make sure people understand – not just one of the drop-ship scam pieces of evidence means it is a scam. It is a combination of many of them. We all have to morally decide at what point we see these in combination and decide not to buy. But if you ignore this moral duty, I urge you to consider what I have written above and try to justify how you are not part of the problem. I don't mean for you to go out and report everything that looks like it could be a scam. But we are reaching a day and age where we, as informed members of the BP community have a duty to use our knowledge to the benefit of everyone. Yes, some innocent people may have trouble selling their listings, but if these people are not fraudulent sellers, they will be able to meet our demands without issue.And if you purchased something that turns out to be a scam, you are not a bad person. But don't just ignore it and put the box on the shelf. Act. Make calls, ask for a refund. Report the seller and the listing.
Let's be a part of the solution instead of part of the problem. Let's not be part of the crowd who just says “it's not our problem”. Because the fact is, if you live and breath in this world, it is your problem.se methods.
Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
Alright, so most of you probably saw my first blog on becoming a power seller, Buyer Discussion (you may not have read it because of its length, ha!) but I needed to do the same for sellers, so this is it. I do want to let people know I am going to do quite a few Ebay blogs about being a power seller, owning an Ebay store, the toils of making this a business, and even more on it.
On to the discussion though, this article is about how those of us who have become bigger sellers, selling several items a day, have to do and have a responsibility to do for our buyers. These are things that I have figured out benefit everyone involved and things that may be viewed as hard, but just really aren't.
For reference, I send out about 8 items a day (although its mostly the weekends - about to wrap up a 40 item weekend after I am done writing this.), but I have only been doing this for about 3 months. On to the discussion!
As a seller, you have a responsibility to describe your item to the best of your ability
Most of the problems with this just straight come out of Laziness for me. I generally will use the same default listing for every item - which is fine. Honestly I think consistency is good - its recognizable for people when they see your listings and they know what to expect based on your first couple of sentences.
However it is sometimes easy to get lazy, especially on used items. You figure it wont matter to mention the little tiny scratch or scuff, etc. This is important though - not just for the buyer and for your feedback, but for the principal of the matter. As a seller, my biggest complaint is that people don't read my listings. If that is really something you believe in, making your listings correct, descriptive, and generally worth reading is your responsibility to that principle.
You have the responsibility to take good pictures
I am ok with stock pictures on new items - I use them on stuff that's brand new (not sets) like minifigures, etc. because they do the same justice and my feedback and store lets people know I am legit. Used items and special items need this though. And they need a good, digital picture.
Besides the fact that this helps your own listing and protects you from SNAD cases on Ebay, it's honesty that goes a long way with buyers and it is only right we show them exactly what they are getting. And really, how hard is it? You phone probably has a 746 Megapixel camera in it. Press a damn button and upload a picture.
Leave feedback for your buyers
This is really even easier as if you start to sell a lot you can spend 3$ or so and subscribe to an APP that will auto leave feedback for you. Either way, feedback is important to buyers - because a lot of them may become sellers and they need the feedback to get going. I don't necessarily think this concept is totally sound - just because you are a good buyer doesn't mean you are a good seller - but at the same time, don't we all remember when we had 0 feedback? Getting those positives for grabbing a couple items is awesome.
It also helps if you get one of those buyers who decides to neg you because they are a d-bags.
Warn and block people when they act inappropriately or unprofessionally and let them know
Duh, right? Well besides the obvious, this is extremely important to the Ebay marketplace. Why? Because this teaches buyers they shouldn't act the way they do. I am generally nice about it, but if someone does something they shouldn't, I warn them and then block them. For example:
1. Message me about buying stuff outside of Ebay
2. Low ball offering repeatedly.
3. Leaving negative feedback without contacting the seller.
etc.
In general I find a lot of these people are younger or immature people. Some of the ones I have warned have apologized and ended up buying stuff and being good buyers. Others may not, but if they know they have been banned (and i assume some of them test it because who wouldn't) it can help say something to them.
Or at least I hope it does.
It is not hard to be responsive
This one may be controversial. I understand people are busy. But there is an Ebay app on every phone. Unless I am busy, I respond to messages within a few minutes every time. Same way with offers (unless the situation calls for otherwise). There is just no reason to not be able, with all of this technology, to simply and quickly respond to someone when they have a question or a problem. I hate doing it sometimes too, but it is a responsibility and something my buyers are happy about. I constantly get "thank you for the quick response" and as much in my feedback as well.
Price your items appropriately
This is no discussion on making deals, or where prices should be. Pricing something on the high side is fine with me - I have several items I do it for. And its totally an opinion
This is more about doing market research. I know several sellers on Ebay who clog it up (because they get free listings) with stuff that is outrageously priced. It is somewhat infuriating to people like us and people who are just buying.
I commonly get offer messages from people complaining about all the stuff jacked up on Ebay. They are mad. But I honestly don't think its at the people selling things for market value - its the people selling things for 5 times it.
Look at the Dino Defense set on Ebay - an Auction listing will go from $150-$180, a smart BIN is around $180-$200.
Unfortunately, we are looking at $250s, $300s and $350s. They don't sell and are worthless listings. To me, think if every listing has 15 that are priced high for no reason. Sure, a few may sell, but think about the 1000s of worthless listings on Ebay! Don't be a part of that.
Conclusion
These were just a few things I think sellers should know (and buyers should know about their sellers and what they should expect). In the coming week I will be putting more info out on the table, so stay tuned! Feel free to refute any of my points below as well. I would love to hear others experiences - this is solely based on mine and is definitely not final word.
Central Europe Investors: protect your investment and satisfy your desire to build your LEGO sets.
One of the easiest ways to burn the money you invested in LEGO is to open a MISB set, just because you always wanted to build that special model. You will decrease the value faster than you can change your brickfolio entry from “new” to “used.” Unless you have a good friend who lets you build his already opened 10179 Millenium Falcon, you have to sit in front of your MISB set and continue drooling.
But there is a light at the end of the tunnel…
When you manage to travel to southern Germany December 13th to 15th 2013 you can build almost every desirable LEGO set without opening any of your MISB sets. And in addition to preventing you from destroying hard earned and well invested money, by building my LEGO sets instead of yours, there will be discussions on various investment related themes like storage, insuring and protecting your sets and instructions,…
I just booked all of the conference rooms in the Ottobeuren Youth hostel for the whole weekend, so there will be enough space to build and build and build…
Amongst others the following sets presumably will be there to be build:
StarWars™
- 10179 Millenium Falcon™
- 10019 Rebel Blockade Runner™
- 10030 Star Destroyer ™
- 10188 Death Star
- 10212 Imperial Shuttle™
- 10221 Super Star Destroyer™
- 10225 R2-D2™
- 10240 Red Five X-wing Starfighter™
Modular Building
- 10182 Café Corner
- 10185 Green Grocer
- 10190 Market Street
- 10197 Fire Brigade
- 10211 Grand Emporium
- 10218 Pet Shop
- 10224 Town Hall
- 10232 Palace Cinema
Large Scale Models/ Architecture
- 3450 Statue of Liberty
- 10181 Eiffel Tower
- 10189 Taj Mahal
- 10214 Tower Bridge
- 10234 Sydney Opera House
Cuusoo Sets
- 21100 Shinkai 6500 Submarine
- 21101 Hayabusa
- 21102 Minecraft Microworld
- 21103 DeLorean
Lord of the Rings™
All official Sets of the first 2 series, incl.:
- 9474 Battle of Helm’s Deep™
- 10237 Tower of Orthanc™
and for the holiday mood:
- 10199 Winter Toy Shop
- 10216 Winter Village Bakery
- 10222 Winter Village Post Office
- 10229 Winter Village Cottage
- 10235 Winter Village Market
plus LEGO® Technic, Trains, LEGO® Sports, …
Ottobeuren is a small town located between Munich, Ulm and Lindau in southern Germany. The next bigger city is Memmingen (10km) where you find a small international airport and the next train station. A pickup service for travellers can be arranged on demand. If you want to stay in reach of the LEGO sets, there are booked rooms in the youth hostel, otherwise there are some beautiful hotels in the town within walking range to the workshop. So you can leave your partner in the spa for a wellness weekend and go building.
There are still some free places for the workshop (max. 25 participants) and Brickpickers will get 20% discount! Prices for the whole weekend (only for the workshop, food and hotel costs not included) are 100 EUR for adult participants (80 EUR for member of brickpicker.com) and 35 EUR for accompanying kids (28 EUR for member of brickpicker.com, I recommend this workshop for kids older than 14 years. Please contact me before you bring younger children). Prices for day tickets and groups available on request. The costs for the workshop will cover the fees for the booked conference rooms and my time for preparing the sets and counting the parts after the workshop. More information and the flyer (sorry, only in German at the moment) you will find below and at my homepage: rentabrick.de/workshop.
I hope we will meet this December.
Jens

So, anyone who has read the articles in my blog space here, listened to my comments on the forums, or seen my rantings about it in my created topics knows that I spend an insane amount of time on Ebay. Seriously the equivalent of a solid 2-3 hours a day. I love to shop (but not physically) and I really love to find deals. Most of the time I don't care if I actually want it - I like to find those "diamonds in the rough", etc. My views and opinions on Ebay have changed quite a bit in just a short period of time because of my vastly differing experiences on Ebay (which I will explain below) so I wanted to go through some things from the point of view of where I am now for any of those looking to get to that point or people who might take info from here and understand more about what goes on in the background for a bulk Ebay seller.
So first off, I have never really given an introduction at all on the website - I feel like I am pretty predictable so you all know me by now (nothing special obviously, lol) - but I think understanding where I come from is important in understanding my viewpoints.
I am 26 years old and I work as a network engineer for a large company in Alabama. I went through school for electrical engineering. This by no means indicates I am smart - I was actually overwhelmed for much of my college career. It more indicates my one talent : I am a hard worker with unlimited motivation. I am also a very analytically, statistical, and logical person when it comes to anything in my life, especially buying and selling Lego.
Anyway, I got into Lego about a year ago after I saw some Star Wars sets and was amazed at the detail. I am a big Star Wars fan and the recreation was insane. Shortly after I found this site and got into everything I am into now (which is debt, lol),
Fast forward: I got inspired to start selling on Ebay after finding some good clearance deals in July. I got several sets which I felt were not going to be great in the long run, but I could make a good amount of money parting out. I was already on Ebay and was fairly experienced at selling and running an "Ebay business" (I used to design and sell guitar equipment). Lego was definitely a different story - more on that below.
So I started with selling those sets and it went really well. When the promo came out for September, along with all the new Star Wars sets, I saw a possibility to expand what I was doing. I had sold about 40 items over 2 months up until then. Over September, I ordered from S@H 12 times and as you can believe, my Ebay account really took off. This was on top of EE deals, Amazon gold box deals, etc. that I bought and either flipped or parted out. I also cruised Ebay and grabbed items that were under-priced to flip as well.
I didn't really realize until the end of the month how crazy things has become: 150 transactions, close to 7K in sales (Although maybe $500 in profit and $500 in "free" lego sets, and a lot of missed sleep from packaging. Now most people who do as many different things as I do (I do all of them mediocre for that reason, Ha) would say "I should slow down". For some weird reason, this just fuels me. I thought "if I really work at this, I wonder what I could do".
I sat down last week to look at my progress and was amazed. 488 Sales, 13K in sales, and I am thinking about hiring a shipping department. I now have an Ebay store, I am a power seller and top rated seller, and have established myself with a group of customers that order from me once a week or so.
Now, this is in no way to tote myself up. I have said before, there are probably 100 people on this site who could do this better than me. I am not greedy, nor do I really care about money honestly. Its more of a motivation factor for me. However, since I have written many Ebay articles and have really discussed Ebay a lot, I wanted to offer more viewpoints from a seller with very high volume and an Ebay store (to get an idea of volume, 465 items in the last 62 days = 8 or so items selling per day).
So first, I want to start with some Buying tips, advice, discussion - whatever you want to call it - to maybe give some buyers perspective on how a seller of this volume works and how we can all become better buyers. I want to say as well: this is absolutely an open discussion. I in no way think I am right about everything and I think only through discussion do we mold and change our views on things to where they need to be. So without further background:
Reading a description is not just to the advantage of the buyer: It is a responsibility.
Alright, I will go ahead and call out the hypocrisy police: we have all done this. I have publicly admitted to doing this. You should always do it because it protects you.
There is a lot more to this though. A responsible seller (you will know who is and who isn't) has spent time to write the best description they can. It seriously can take a good deal of time. So reward their hard work by reading it. Why? Because it should be able to answer all the questions you have. As someone who receives somewhere near 20 offers a day, 4-5 questions, and with my selling capacity - it is really more disheartening to get a question from a buyer that is answered in the description. Time is money as we all know. Answering these questions takes more time on top of what has been spent creating the description for the item. Before you ask a question, you should make sure you understand the description.
More importantly, don't only look at it from just your point of view. This is hard because you are obviously out for yourself, but try to think about things in the description from the point of the seller before you send an offer, before you ask a question, and before you buy an item in general. For example, I have gotten people complaining about first class being slow in certain cases (5 days). Now I would love to use priority, but are you going to purchase an item I have to price 3$ higher to make up for that? These things help a buyer understand where a seller is coming from, and helps the Ebay community.
Read a seller's rules if they are in the description
Again, I am really bad about this. But there is nothing more disheartening than selling an item and feeling that great feeling, and then getting a message saying "it says you don't ship internationally?", etc.
These are actually important for a buyer themselves anyway. You can read a lot into the seriousness and integrity of a seller by reading their rules. This may make you feel better about "should be 100% complete" with a used set, or about how well they pack the item for shipping.
Understand what constitutes a low offer
Not everyone uses Best Offer. I love it, but it can be a drag sometimes. In general, I don't have a problem with low offers because they can be countered or declined. But I think it is a buyer's responsibility to think about what they offer before they offer.
Let's look at a couple of situations:
1. A seller is selling 30 sets they have had in their attic for 5 years for $500obo. They have a list and say "may be complete", but they are all thrown together.
2. A buyer is selling a set currently on the retail market, at a 15% discount off retail already with Best Offer.
To me, an offer of half the price or lower can easily be justified on the top one. But the bottom? very questionable. People are normally on Ebay to make money right? And we know there is no one on Ebay selling their current retail sets for half price or lower and making money.
Now one low offer is really no big deal most of the time. I generally will decline if the offer is asinine (I have a gunship with no minifigures that someone offered 10$ on the other day. Not worth the time), but other times I will counter and be honest that I can't really discount it like that.
However, when people repeatedly offer like this on items, counter back with another low ball offer, or send notes like " this is for my sons birthday" (yeah well I am not invited to the party?!?) with a low offer, this is not only frustrating, but again time consuming for a seller. And honestly, for me, it gets you on my banned bidders list.
So whats the rule? Well there isn't any - its obviously a judgement call. What I have learned to do (and I didn't used to do this - I would definitely make unrealistic offers in the past) is to think before i press the offer button "can I justify WHY someone would sell this to me for this price without dreaming?". If I can't - its immediately amended.
For me, when I get a good, well thought out and respectable offer, I generally will send the person a message and offer them discounts on other items because I am so happy to receive something that makes since. Offering 10$ for a $25 figure when it is already the cheapest on Ebay is not kosher. Adding to that, offering half the price on an item that already shows as "on sale" is in the same book.
Responsibly open and close your cases
So I will admit, when a customer opens a case for something I can easily resolve, it frustrates me. This is not on the buyer - Ebay pushes the buyer to do this. But, as a buyer I try to contact the seller first before opening a case.
Furthermore, if the seller resolves the issue - close the case. Yes, they time out. But for a high volume seller, there could be several open at one time. I generally check through them to just make sure I don't have new ones I missed, or randomly have to respond. Having these promptly closed out lets a seller know everything has been taken care of.
Understand mistakes in orders
Out of 488 items, I have made 4 mistakes in orders. It happens. We all wish we didn't, but it just happens. As a buyer, I definitely get irritated if I am excited about something and it comes incorrectly (see my rants about people sending lego sets without a box). But we have to understand that we are not buying from Robots. Ebay makes it seem that way sometimes, but there are humans who make human errors on the other side of the internet we are buying from. It is really easy to make a mistake.
As a buyer, it is important to contact the seller respectfully and treat the seller with respect. They aren't the McDonalds worker that just put onions on your cheeseburger. If you treat them with respect, they will take care of you. I take care of all my customers, but I definitely go farther for the people who contact me respectfully and just say "no big deal, it happens".
This is not to say that you shouldn't stick up for yourself when the situation calls for it. But it is important for all of us to put ourselves in the shoes of the other person before we write to them (except for TRU because they are pretty awful).
Leaving feedback is a responsibility to a seller and to the Ebay community
We have had discussions about this. There are tons of reasons that you should leave feedback. But there is one major one that should really stand out : you are directly affecting a seller's bue seller.siness with the feedback you leave or don't.
A good example can be read through a few of my positives. I have had several people leave "got item, poor packaging" or "very slow shipping" as positives. Don't get me wrong, I like positives. But the first was packaged like the other 300 minifigures I have sold and the second was purchased on a Friday night. I sent Monday and it got there Wednesday. As someone who advertises fast shipping and good packaging, this affects my selling (and yes I know no one reads positives, but you do see the points).
More importantly when you leave a negative think about what you are doing. Negatives are the most damaging piece of feedback you can leave. Can you justify your feedback fully? Has the seller not tried to help you in every way possible? Was the problem in the sellers control? I am actually a feedback reader - I like to just randomly read people's feedback. Negatives like "slow shipping" or "item damaged in shipping" just make me wonder if the user ever even contacted the seller.
Obviously you need to leave it. Not many, but definitely some people feel more comfortable buying fro sellers with a higher feedback rating. It literally takes 5 seconds to leave feedback and can make a big difference for a seller.
Make sure you understand Ebay policy before accusing a seller of anything
I like helping people that have a problem (I don't like creating the problem). I work in a support role - I live for making things better for people. So it is very disheartening when someone comes to me with a problem and tells me how I should resolve it, or how Ebay feels about it when they are completely wrong. It happens where buyers feel they are entitled to something they aren't, or will speak for Ebay on a situation without actually researching the policy before hand. It takes a very short amount of time to confirm Ebay's policy on something so make sure you know it before you tell a seller what they should and shouldn't be doing.
Conclusion
This is in no way meant to be a rant or meant to vent at all. I actually am going to write a second piece to this on Selling and advice for sellers and will be putting more on them now that I understand what should and shouldn't be expected of a seller.
The real point in all of this is to put yourself in the seller's shoes in any situation. You aren't a volume seller? Maybe not, but you can think like one when you find a mistake, or decide how to leave feedback, read a description, or ask a question. Putting yourself in someone else's shoes is the only way to understand someone else completely. And understanding them will have benefits for everyone involved.
I wanted to start a dialogue about what I think many people are missing when they discuss any myriad of topics on this and other sites and that is the view of our ‘business’ from a distance, the big picture if you will. I'm not talking about a bubble bursting or not bursting conversation, but instead the changes in the Lego culture that have manifested over the past few years. I will start out by stating that I don't have all the answers, none of us do; but I think we need to start talking about this so that as more things come into light we are cognizant of it and can adjust accordingly. As a long time (and in my own right very successful) Lego reseller I constantly read articles and forums from a number of sites that tackle various issues as they arise, and while those are all valid in their own right and even have inklings of this topic, I haven’t seen a high level discussion on it.
I guess for me it all came to a head with Azog, that lesser character from the books that was given a new life in the movies. 100 of his minifigure were given out 'randomly' at Comic-Con 2013 and as most us know, the prices went through the roof even outselling Mr. Gold within weeks. As prices spiked north of $2,000 people were clearly wanting in on this figure and I have no doubt that there were investors out there feeling their purchases at $1,000 were a steal. After all, Lego has always had a reputation for creating very special and limited figures for events and they have traditionally been a solid long term investment or purchase for many collectors. When the news came out that this same exact minifig was being released in an upcoming set there were immediate laughs and comments relating to how fast the prices would be dropping and that it didn’t matter for the resellers because they already made their money so who cares.
Here’s where the problem starts. While I agree in this instance that’s true, what people are failing to realize is this one singular event will now FOREVER tarnish in people’s minds that they can never be certain that a "special edition" piece whether from Comic-Con, Toy Fair, or anywhere else is sacred. They (Lego) have now cast a doubt in every buyers mind, whether collector or seller and that has the very real possibility of preventing extreme selling of anything like this again. While I'm not saying that’s necessarily a bad thing and certainly prevents surging spikes in the market, it DOES guarantee that the effects will be felt one way or another long term which affects everyone. While it’s a different situation, this can and has been felt in other ways regarding sets that appreciate only to a certain point before dropping as ‘new’ releases are projected to hit the market.
If you step back and really look at the big picture it's just another piece of the puzzle that Lego has figured out on how to mess with the secondary market. First it was re-releasing sets causing older version to fluctuate in pricing, then it was creating sets that were minifig centric thus affecting how minifigs and sets could be broken up for resale, followed by tightening the 10% off coupon restrictions removing the ability to purchase select sets at any kind of a discount, and now it's casting doubt that a limited release may not be so limited. Dare I mention the elusive 41999 Crawler set that has magically appeared at nearly every store nationwide 2 months after selling out resulting in a sudden price drop of nearly $100 online? I'm sure there are other instances that exist but let's be real about this, LEGO doesn't like us whether you call yourself an investor or reseller and they are strategically working to close the holes that have allowed many of us do business the way we do. Some will survive better than others, and like other times of change that usually weeds out the weak and make those who remain that much stronger but either way more changes whether subtle or obvious are sure to be on the way.
In the end just remember the old adage about mice. If you drop a mouse in boiling water it’ll scream, claw, and fight every way it can to get out, but if you put him in warm water and slowly raise the temperature he won’t fight, kick, or scream….he’ll just die. I’m just here to tell you that we are currently in that warm water and they’re only turning up the heat more.
What if anything can we do in response? The most common answer is of course, nothing. I’m sure there are countless resellers out there that either don’t care about my view of things or figure there’s no sense discussing it since they can’t change it anyway and that’s exactly what Lego is counting on. After all you don’t become the largest privately owned toy business without knowing your competition and how to eliminate it, and as I’ve said before make no mistake that YOU ARE THEIR COMPETION. No matter how or what you sell their company policy is that every single person who isn’t an end user is their competition and they are actively working to eliminate you from the retail equation, period.
So where does that leave us and what can we actually do? I have some ideas I’ll outline in my next installment of “The View from 20,000 feet”.
Out of curiosity, I started taking a look at TLG's annual financial reports available since 1999, and thought it would be interesting to show some graphs with the evolution of the company since then. This is not meant to be an in depth analysis, but rather a very visual and quick way of examining how these little bricks that occupy so much of our time have performed over the past decade (more than 12 years actually).
I might get into more detail in further posts of whatever I find and consider interesting, we'll see. For now, here are some of the financial highlights, enjoy!: (Figures are in Millions of DKK)

Talk about a comeback! I am sure a lot of you already knew that TLG has gone through some really bad times financially, but I think that the graph makes this even more apparent. What's more important though, is that LEGO has been presenting a substantial profit increase year after year (Not accounting for inflation). We should all be really happy the company is doing so well, as it can only benefit us in the long run!

Another thing I found interesting relates to licensing fees. We all know LEGO is pretty active in acquiring popular licenses like Star Wars, LOTR and others, but that has not always been the case. If you take a look at the graph below, you will see (in the 1st one) that based in sheer dollar (actually, DKK) amount the company's licensing fees have shot up since 2004, while growth has sort of stabilized since 2009.

On the other hand, the second graph shows licensing fee expense as a percentage of each year's revenue or sales. It is with this graph we can see that, sometime between 2004 and 2005, licensing fees increased substantially relative to sales, and have remained around 6.5% since. In summary, I would say that the most significant turn towards licensed themes happened sometime before 2005.
As you can see, there are a lot of small and interesting details buried in the annual reports the company publishes. I hope I can take some more time to find some other things that can be of general interest to the site.
I will leave you with a simple question: Can you guess, without researching, which was the top selling theme in 2002 and 2003?
Post your guess in the comments!
Thanks for reading.
After a 2 month hiatus, it's time to see the current trends as far as best selling LEGO sets is concerned, based on eBay licensed information. This time, I will only include comments on those sets that are new to the list or that have experimented an special "event", as I can't really add too much information to, say, the 7965 MF's every single month. Let's get to it!
September 2013 Top Ten
1

421 Sold (New)
I don't really think anyone will be surprised to see this set in the top spot of the list. The hype and sales activity this Limited Edition set generated in the LEGO community reminded me of the craziness we saw when the first Minecraft set was released last year, but at a much larger scale given its substantially higher price.
2

168 Sold (New)
3

150 Sold (New)
4

147 Sold (New)
This set has been dropping sharply as far as units sold is concerned. It will be interesting to see if the new versions released under the theme can help it pick up a little in the coming months.
5

128 Sold (New)
This is an exclusive polybag to TRU, given out with qualifying purchases. These kind of products usually have a lot of activity immediately following their release, as the owners probably try to recoup some costs from the sets they purchased to earn it.
6

114 Sold (New)
7

8

107 Sold (New)
Another new member of the Best Sellers list, this particular set includes the always popular Two-Face, Batman and a couple other side characters. The set had a substantial jump in units sold, going from 50 to over 100 copies.
9

105 Sold (New)
This little set was recently retired over the past couple months, and as such experimented a jump in sales numbers as collectors and investors rushed to avoid missing out on it.
10

105 Sold (New)
One of the most talked about set in the forums, the Vampyre Castle's sales numbers are currently experiencing an upward trend, as October and Halloween season give a boost to demand. Definitely interesting to keep a watch and see how it does in October itself.
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And with that we close this month's list. A couple of new members in the list, but the majority of sets we have seen consistently over the past few months.
Thanks for reading.

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