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Brickpicker Blog

Brickpicker blog articles on LEGO investing, news, reviews, evaluations, discounts and more...
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Welcome to the fourth installment of a series started by Comicblast called “The Superior Market - eBay vs. BrickLink”. If you haven't read the previous articles, I suggest you start at the beginning and read Comicblast's initial articles here ($0.00 to $9.99) andhere ($10 to $24.99). The third installment can be read here ($25 to $49.99) and gives further background about the purpose of these articles and my approach to continuing the analysis.
[divider] Fees for eBay were calculated as follows:
No insertion fee was included. 10% was subtracted off the sale price for eBay. Fees on any shipping cost were not included since it is impossible to calculate. 2.9% + 30 cents was subtracted off the sale price for PayPal. Fees for BrickLink were calculated as follows:
3% was subtracted off the sale price for BrickLink. 2.9% + 30 cents was subtracted off the sale price for PayPal. ** One word of caution for the BrickLink values. BrickLink shows me the values in Canadian dollars and doesn't offer the ability to switch to a different currency despite the claims made by it's settings. I used an average of the exchange rate (1.0504) between the CDN and US dollars over the last 6 months to find the BrickLink US sale price. I.e. $1.00 US = $0.952 CDN  ** The results for the MSRP range from $50 to $99.99 are as follows:
In this price range, BrickLink pulls into a big lead with the number of sets that sold for higher. Without fees, eBay holds a big lead: 14.66% vs 6.19% With fees, BL comes out ahead: 13.29% vs 10.68% In the $50 to $99.99 MSRP price range, the picture is starting to change. BrickLink has a significant lead in terms of sets sold for more money but those that sell for more in their respective marketplace still have a decent advantage over the other.

Additional things to consider:
If you have an eBay store, you may pay significantly less fess. There is no free shipping on BrickLink, so the sale price shown is the true sale price. eBay prices will more than likely include listings that had free shipping as part of the sale price. I'm going to give this round to BrickLink because more than twice as many sets sold for more money. Could this be because in this price range we are moving beyond the mom and pop buyers and into the group of buyers (AFOLs) who are aware of BrickLink? Wouldn't that favor higher prices on eBay? I guess not.
Welcome to the third installment of a series started by Comicblast called “The Superior Market - eBay vs. BrickLink”. The purpose of this article is to compare the average sale prices of LEGO sets over the last 6 months. These numbers are the final sale prices, according to data acquired from BrickLink and BrickPicker from August 2013 to January 2014 (yes I realize that the January data isn't 100% complete, but I believe the impact will be minimal).
Comicblast's original blog post's can be found here ($0.00 to $9.99) and here ($10 to $24.99). The original intention of his blog articles was to simply compare the average selling price of 25 different sets. In the spirit of Comicblast's original attempt to create an unbiased list of sets, I perused the set lists from 2010-2013 and tried to pick sets that offered a variety of successes and failures in terms of resale value. Older sets are retired and newer ones are readily available at retail prices.
I have decided to take it one step further and look at what the advantage would be before and after calculating the fees a seller would need to pay to eBay, BrickLink and PayPal based on their typical rates. I realize this does not match everyone's selling situation (i.e. if you have an eBay store, you might pay less), but in general it should help to show which marketplace will earn you top dollars for your sets. Fees for eBay were calculated as follows:
No insertion fee was included. 10% was subtracted off the sale price for eBay. Fees on any shipping cost were not included since it is impossible to calculate. 2.9% + 30 cents was subtracted off the sale price for PayPal. Fees for BrickLink were calculated as follows:
3% was subtracted off the sale price for BrickLink. 2.9% + 30 cents was subtracted off the sale price for PayPal. ** One word of caution for the BrickLink values. BrickLink shows me the values in Canadian dollars and doesn't offer the ability to switch to a different currency despite the claims made by it's settings. I used an average of the exchange rate (1.0504) between the CDN and US dollars over the last 6 months to find the BrickLink US sale price. I.e. $1.00 US = $0.952 CDN  ** The results for the MSRP range from $25 to $49.99 are as follows:
In this price range, eBay holds an advantage in the number of sets that sell for more. Without fees, eBay holds a big lead: 18.5% vs 5.9% With fees, BL comes out slightly ahead: 12.1% vs 11.4% In the $25 to $49.99 MSRP price range, the picture isn't much different than the previous two ranges. Many sets don't sell for a significantly higher amount in either marketplace, but some do. If you are willing to sell in both, by choosing the right place to sell, you can make more money in this price range.

Additional things to consider:
If you have an eBay store, you may pay significantly less fess. There is no free shipping on BrickLink, so the sale price shown is the true sale price. eBay prices will more than likely include listings that had free shipping as part of the sale price. I'm going to call this round a draw. If you have an eBay store, less fees means eBay would hold the advantage; however, considering that the Brickpicker values likely contain sales with free shipping, the numbers are potentially slightly inflated.
What makes a great LEGO investment?  Why do certain sets do better than others?  These are questions that LEGO investors should ask themselves before diving too deep into the world of LEGO investing.
I realize that rare and limited edition sets (e.g. 41999 Crawler, 21100 Shinkai Submarine,) are some of the best investments, but I will not be covering these types of sets.  With rare or limited edition sets, the most challenging part is finding them. It is not hard to decide if you should buy them or not.
There are many things that can make a set great, but if we can find the prominent features of winning sets and notice a pattern, then we will be able to make the best choices for LEGO investing.  Because money does not grow on trees, it is essential to make wise choices.
Some sets, like the 10179 UCS Falcon, are exceptional for their build.  Other sets, like the 6868 Hulk's Helicarrier Breakout, are successful because of the rare minifigures and the theme.  Every once in a while, you will come across a great set with an amazing display value, rare minifigures, and a solid theme.  To predict which sets will be successful in the future, we must find out which sets were successful in the past.
Successful Sets of the Past
#1. 10182 Cafe Corner

The Cafe Corner caused quite a stir in the AFOL community.  This set was a success for two main reasons:
1.  It has great display value
2.  It was the first modular to be produced by TLG
There are always new AFOLs every year, and if they are a fan of modulars and want to complete their collection, then they will have to turn to the secondary market.  As more people buy and open this set, the number of sealed sets will go down, but the value of these sets will go up.  This is a great example of a set that has a fabulous display value with regular minifigures.
#2.  7888 The Tumbler:  Joker's Ice Cream Surprise

I really wanted to pick the entire Batman theme for this part.  One night I had a dream about the Batman theme after it had retired.  I went into a toy store and bought every single Batman set that they had!  Then I woke up.  It was really unfortunate that I could never take these sets from my dream and insert them into real life. Anyway, there are three main reasons this set did so well:
1.  The huge AWESOME tumbler
2.  The well-done minifigures
3.  The solid theme to ensure a success
It is almost impossible to stress the importance of #3 enough.  A solid theme can be a make or break for most of the sets available today, no matter how well designed they are.  The minifigures in this set could be better, but they still capture the likeness of the real characters.  The Tumbler has a excellent display value and great minifigures and has been a huge success.
#3.  Hulk's Helicarrier Breakout

This is a recently retired set, and still has lots of room to grow.  Hulk's Helicarrier Breakout has been very successful for two reasons:
1.  The Hulk
2.  The solid theme to back it up
Other than the Hulk, this set is not very impressive.  The display value is not that great, and Loki, Thor, and Hawkeye are all seen in at least one other set.
 
As you can see, this set has experienced rapid growth since retirement and I am expecting it to hit the ceiling at about $200 dollars.  This is an example of a set that is successful only because of one minifigure - the Hulk.
 
#4.  10179 UCS Millennium Falcon

Here is the set that every LEGO fan drools over.  The interior of this set is mostly technic and does not offer much playability.  This set is one of most well known sets for three reasons:
1.  It is absolutely MASSIVE
2.  It is well designed
3.  It has serious display value
Even if you are not a fan of Star Wars, there is no denying that this set is amazing.  It has amazing display value and is huge.  Both of these features helped make this one of the most well known sets in LEGO history.
Analyzing the Data
After evaluating these four sets, it is now time to look at what makes a given set successful.
Minifigure-loaded sets can be found in the Superheroes, LOTR, and Star Wars themes.  Battle packs have had amazing returns and the LOTR Uruk-Hai Army is already appreciating quite nicely, though I do beleive that the best minifigure sets can be found within the Superheroes theme.  Because superheroes are popular at the moment, the minifigures are what fans will want.  Here is another place where it is important to discuss themes.  Licensed minifigures are only successful if the character they are based on is popular.  Therefore, when investing in minifigure-loaded sets, we must be sure that the movie or comic the character comes from is popular.
However, I would be investing in a lot of larger sets if it were not for one problem: the lack of money.  Money does not grow on a tree.  And if you do not have the money to buy bigger sets ... then you simply do not have the money to buy bigger sets!
My opinion is that it is good to buy a variety.  People investing in larger sets are probably getting larger returns, but they usually have to wait longer.  Minifigure-loaded sets tend to be cheaper than sets with a notable build and display value.  It takes time for a large set to appreciate, while it is quite easy to flip a few minifigure-loaded sets in a short amount of time.  However, it does not take as much work and time to list and ship one large set than to list and ship ten small sets.
There are pros and cons to both types of sets.  As I said before, it is good to buy a variety.
Sets of the Future with Potential
These are some large sets that have great build and display value:
1.  10223 Kingdoms Joust

Previous castle sets have done very well in the past.
2.  10226 Sopwith Camel

An exclusive set that has rare chrome, dark tan, and dark green pieces with a nice design.
3.  10937 Arkham Asylum Breakout

A great set from the Superheroes theme with a good design and lots of great minifigures.
4.  10237 The Tower of Orthanc

One of the best sets available with two exclusive minifigures, an ent, and a brilliant design.
5.  10225 R2-D2

Brick-built sculptures have also done very well, and because R2-D2 is a popular character, this set will be a success.
6.  21005 Fallingwater

There are a lot of sleeper-sets hidden in the Architecture theme, and I believe this will be one of them.
7.  42009 Mobile Crane MK II

A great Technic set that is huge and looks great on display.
Smaller sets that have great minifigures:
1.  76000 Arctic Batman vs. Mr. Freeze: Aquaman on Ice

Every single minifigure in this set is exclusive!  This will be a definite winner.
2.  76006 Iron Man: Extremis Sea Port Battle

This is currently the only set with War Machine and Killian.  Even though Iron Man is not exclusive, he is popular.
3.  76004 Spider-Man: Spider-Cycle Chase

Venom will appear in a Juniors set, but after they are both retired, this set will soar in value.
4.  97012 Mirkwood Elf Army

With four elves, two Gundabad orcs, and a brown warg, this set is sure to be a success.
These are just a few sets that would be good to purchase before they retire.  I know that there are many more, but I hope this gives you enough information to find out for yourself which sets will succeed.
Summing it Up
You may be wondering what my own investing strategy is.  If you would look inside my closet, you would find quite a few smaller minifigure-loaded sets.  I am hoping to sell some of them soon and free up some more money to invest in larger sets.  I do have the Battle of Helm's Deep and some Hulk's Helicarrier Breakouts in my closet.  I do not invest in large sets unless they are about to retire.  I am hoping to get rolling with my eBay account soon and get enough money to invest in some larger sets.
The most important thing that I hope you take away from this article is that it is essential to invest in successful sets.  Minifigure-loaded sets are great to start out with.  After you get some steady income flowing, begin to invest in larger sets.  Even if finances are not a problem, it is still good to invest in a variety.
I have had a blast writing this and hope that you found this article helpful and have enjoyed reading it.
Guest
Tracking your Lego investments is one of the most important topics that are discussed on the BrickPicker forums.  Since I see quite a few questions popping up on the forums about how to keep track of your Lego investments, I figured I’ll write a blog article about it and maybe some of you will find it helpful.
Terminology
First we need to get our terminology straight as it will help us to pick out appropriate tools for the job.  There are few ways you can treat your Lego business.
Long term investment-You buy complete brand new sets hold them for a period of more than one year and sell them at a premium after those sets are discontinued. Short terms investment- You buy new sets now on sale and at discount and hold them for a period of less than one year and sell them during holiday rush at a premium.  I would lump arbitrage investment here as well, where you buy sets in US for cheap and sell them on eBay international to take advantage of currency rate and pricing differentials. Flipping Used Sets- You buy used sets, usually in lots, rehab them to completion put them together, (The fun part if you are an AFOL and/or have Little Legomaniacs around the house), take pictures and sell them on eBay. Parting out, PAB, Lego pounds-Well... the title says it all. Now the question is what can we use to keep financial record of our business?  We need to examine each individual point and see where it falls and what is important to us.
Long Term investment -What is important?  Our cost basis, our annualized return on investment, record of lots purchased and timing of those lot purchases.  It is quite likely that we will be purchasing same items over the course of year or two for different prices before we sell it so our calculations need to account for that blending as well as holding periods.
Short Term investment and flipping used sets - We can treat it one of two ways as a short term investment or as a retail business that carries inventory. For the purpose of this paragraph let’s treat it as a short term investment.  Annualized rate of return is no longer important we are holding it for less than a year.  We basically can resort to simple cost and profit calculation. Revenue-Cost=Profit.
Parting out, PAB, Lego pounds - In my humble opinion if you are heavily involved in this type of investment you are better off treating it as a retail business with inventory. So what is the difference?  In investment scenario you are concerned with cost basis and sale price. In a business scenario to be successful you need to be concerned with properly matching revenue and expenses.  Let me illustrate the difference.  I am simplifying some things from GAAP and tax accounting but the illustration will hold true.
Short term investment
Date Set Transaction Total Profit 01/01/2013 Fire Brigade Buy 2@100 -200 02/01/2013 Fire Brigade Sell 1 @150 -50(-200+150) 03/01/2013 Fire Brigade Sell 1@ 200 150(-50+200)  
Business Accounting-double sided bookkeeping
  Transaction 1 -Buy  2 Fire Brigades at $100 on 01/01/2013 Transaction 2-Sell 1 Fire Brigade at  $150 Transaction 3-Sell 1 Fire Brigade at $200 Result of Transaction
Accounts Payable(or Cash out the door) ($200) Accounts Receivable(or Cash into your bank account) $150 Accounts Receivable(or Cash into your bank account) $200 Inventory $200 Inventory 100 I sold a FB that was originally bought for a 100 I now only have one set left in inventory valued at 100 Inventory 0, nothing is left. Revenue 0 Revenue 150 Revenue 200   Cost of Goods Sold 100 Cost of Goods Sold 100   Profit 50 Profit 100  
So if you are heavily involved in parting out and bulk bricks you might as well treat your flipping as a retail business model.  If you don’t do a lot of parting out then treating flipping as short term investment is easier.
Choosing appropriate tools for the task
Now we are ready to discuss the tools and I will go backwards on the list.   If you choose a retail model I strongly recommend investing into QuickBooks pro.  It natively supports inventory, double sided accounting, general ledgers profit and loss reports and much, much more.  At $250 retail and there are many coupons floating around, it is very affordable and keeps you sane.  Also comes tax time it can provide you with more opportunities for deductions. As a side note if you make significant amount of money from this activity and live in US. I suggest establishing LLC or Corp and a separate business checking account.  Cost for registering Corp. or LLC is nominal, it does not require an attorney can be done online and it protects you legally.  In the most basic sense Corp and you are two separate legal entities and you are generally not personally liable for misdeeds of the corp.  There are of course exceptions to this rule but they involve fraud, negligence and certain poorly executed contractual obligations. You don’t have to quit your day job to register LLC or Corp.
Short Term Investing - Excel and some intermediate formulas is all you need.  Let’s start with layout.  For my template I chose a logical left to right vs mathematical format.  I buy the set if it is used I rehab it and incur cost along the way I sell it and incur selling costs (eBay, PayPal commissions.)  For the sake of my blood pressure I chose not to track packing costs separately I do incorporate them in my sale’s price  or I inflate shipping a little bit to cover my supplies.  Trying to keep them separate in excel will very quickly turn into running your business as a business with inventory and I can live with slightly inflated performance view of my investments.  We also need at least two tabs on the spreadsheet one for tracking details one for summary reporting. Once you’re done with your headers go ahead and click this   button on your excel Home Tab toolbar.  This will add named ranges to your spreadsheet and will allow you to extend your ranges by Tabbing into the next row.  I’m assuming you are using 2007 and up excel version. First 6 columns are self-explanatory.  Purchase Price per 1 set is actually a weighted average formula so I must digress to explain what weighted average is and why I choose to use it.  
Digression begins:
I buy a used lot of six sets for a $100.  
Set# Name Market Price 7753 Pirate Tank $ 26.73 8036 Separatist Shuttle $ 17.47 8633 Speedboat Rescue $ 30.87 8016 Hyena Droid Bomber $ 12.73 8037 Anakin's Y-wing Star fighter $ 37.07 7676 Republic Attack Gunship $ 123.60   Total
248.47
  If I use simple average method to determine cost per each set it comes out to be $16.6 each.  Now let’s say I need to spend $3  on bricklink  to rehab 8016 I look at the market price of 12.73 and say to myself that I’m already in a hole for this set and I’ll just throw it in a trash and I’ll be wrong and lose profit in the process.    My cost per set should be allocated based on that set’s market value weight in my purchased lot.  Here’s how we do it.
 Determine Set’s percent contribution/weight to market value of the lot (Set Market value/Total market value of the lot) Allocate Purchase cost to the set.  (Lot total cost X Set Weight from step one) Based on that my 8036 cost is now only (17.47/248.47) X 100= $7.03.  Spending $3 to rehab it still leaves me with a healthy profit. 
Digression ends
Back to purchase price per 1 set formula it looks like this rewritten with column headers vs cell references. ((Set Market price*Quantity)/SUMPRODUCT((Entire column where my lot numbers are="Lot 1")*(Set market price entire column)*(Lot Cost entire column)))*(Lot cost cell/Quantity cell). Sumproduct formula explanation is in order.  In its very basic form sumproduct multiplies ranges of columns and delivers sum of multiplications.
2 2 3 3 Sumproduct of these four cells is 13  2*2+3*3.  
 
I use it here to test conditions.  SUMPRODUCT((Entire column where my lot numbers are="Lot 1") will either return 1 or 0 for each row because it’s either my lot 1 or not from there the rest of the formula will either be 0 or the value since 0 multiplied by any value is 0.  With this formula all you have to do is populate your total lot cost for every row in that lot and adjust the formula slightly for each lot to have excel automatically calculate weighted average price per set in a lot.
Total purchase price per quantity =Quantity*Purchase price per 1 set
Lot number -we need to populate for every row to have the sumproduct formula work for us.  Simple copy paste does the trick.
Lot cost -we need that to have our weighted average price per set formula to work
Set Market price - comes straight from BP Maybe premium members will be allowed to connect via ODBC to it.  Hint Hint.
Bricklink cost=Cost to rehab the set.
Sale price- Well… your sales price
Qty sold is your qty sold
Gross Revenue- IFERROR(Sale price*Qty Sold,0)+Shipping charged-Shipping Paid. I put error handling in here because I use Sale price column to write in status of my sets i.e. Listed, waiting for parts etc.  With this iferror formula it will return zero if I don’t have a valid sales price in that row.  I also have shipping spread added to my gross revenue because I’m still experimenting with pricing to cover my packaging costs.
Shipping charged and Paid were already explained.
EBay insertion fee- you can use that to keep track of those.
eBay FV fee -IFERROR(0.1*(Sale Price*Qty sold+Shipping Charged),0) again error handling here and your standard 10 percent eBay commission on sales+shipping.
PayPal Fee - FERROR(0.029*(Sale Price*Qty Sold+shipping charged)+0.3*Q,0) very straightforward  PayPal fee of 2.9% + 30cents per transaction. Shipping in both eBay FV formulas and PayPal Fee formulas are user populated.  I am assuming that shipping could be different for any two items sold from the same lot and you can use simple arithmetic to add to the shipping.
Net Revenue- IFERROR(Sales Price*Quantity+Shipping Charged-Shipping Paid-eBay Insertion Fee-eBay FV fee-PayPal Fee,0).  I incorporated this column to have a little fun with analytics when it is time for me to think about opening eBay store.
Total Cost- SUM(Total purchase price for qty,Bricklink cost, EBay FV fee, PayPal Fee)
Profit is your total gross revenue-Total cost. Profit Margin or more accurately net profit margin is IFERROR(Profit/(Purchase price for qty+Bricklink cost),0).   With all this out of the way  here’s a screen shot of the populated details

Entirely useless and confusing for analysis.  That’s why we need a summary tab and a pivot table in it. To create a pivot table  go to your insert tab and click pivot table button
 
You will see popup like the one below, Click on the button on the right and select the range where your detail data is.  And just follow the prompts from there.

You will end up with a blank pivot table and list of available fields
 
At this point you can start to experiment by dragging fields from the top right section of the minipivot into the different areas of the bottom right section. The populated pivot table  in the screenshot summarizes my performance per lot purchased. I can get as detailed or as high level as I want and have multiple pivots side by side for quick dash boarding analysis with just a few clicks. Ok we are done with short term investment tracking.  
Long Term investing
Using Excel for long term investment tracking becomes an exercise in advanced excel and quite frankly is not worth the effort.  Most of us already have personal accounting software like Quicken Premiere that supports investment tracking natively.
Go to your tools menu and then select add account option.  You will see this screen.  
Click on Brokerage under Investing and retirement. Once the next screen comes up click Advanced setup link at the bottom of the screen.
 
Select  I want to enter my transactions manually on the screen that appears and click next.
 
Name your account and click next
 
Next screen you can skip or enter information on it if you have startup cash that you are allocating towards your purchases
 
I suggest you skip this screen and start fresh.
 
Select No on this screen
 
Done! Click Finish

  Now find your newly created account it should be in investing section of the left sidebar and click on it. We have a clean slate time to enter some transactions
 
  Double click on the first line and you’ll see the popup below. Change Enter Transaction drop down list to Buy-Shares Bought And populate your information.  You also have an option here to select your cash account or credit card as source of funds for this purchase. 
And then hit enter/new button
 
My ticker is my set number. Hit Next

  Quicken will protest and we’ll have to tell it to shut up and hit next
 
Here you can actually assign asset class to your Lego portfolio.
Fire brigade belongs to Large Cap in my opinion, Dolphin cruiser would probably be Mid Cap. And hit Done
.  
Rinse and repeat until you’re done with your transactions.  Of course you can type this info in directly into ledger screen if you wish.
Pretty soon your ledger screen will look busy.

Click on holdings button

Now right click on your investment  and select price history from submenu, click on New and enter new price.  I suggest doing it once a month to have a good historical representation.
 
And That is all folks!!!.    
I tend to focus on bulk. Simple reason really. It's what I spend most of my investment resources on.  While I do have a small and slowly growing pile of boxed sets stashed where the seven year old Sherlock can't find them I will continue to make way more money on bulk lots for the foreseeable future.
While there are plenty of exceptions with most sets much of the value is tied to the minifigs. Bulk lots are no different, much of the value in any bulk lot is tied to whatever minifigs it happens to contain. Where the difference lies is the condition that they are found in. The pic below is of all the mini figures that I sorted out of a roughly 30 pound lot. And I apologize in advance for the picture quality.

 
Again that's all of them without any sorting (other than a Killer Croc I spotted him and had already listed him by this point.) When I sort figures the first thing I do is dump them all out. The square is just so you can judge the size.
 
Some of these are complete, some are striped to the torso, and many are in between. For a small pile like this I use two of the Lego sorting trays and just have at it. I also will toss all Star Wars figures and pieces their own box as I go. After about an hour this is what I had in my trays. And that's one hour with seven year old help. I'm normally much faster.

The top tray has most of the minifig pieces.  Hands by color, arms, heads by color. When sorting loose heads stick them together, it allows you to look at several at once. It's hard to see in the pic, but I've got them sorted boy/girl as well.  Next I have partial figs, then legs with any that are printed in their own spot, and finally torsos. The bottom tray is more of a catch all. I have a spot for Ninjago, Batman, Indiana Jones, shields, visors, hair, swords/knives, guns/arrows, 3 for hats/helmets, a random accessories area, and a spot for any accessories that go under the head. As I went I pulled out Star Wars and sorted some of them as well.

The top is a bunch of random Star Wars, the bottom are ones that I could sort by set quickly, and a whole bunch of battle droids. And yes the tray is from the inside of an Advent Calendar. Hey, it was free.
And lastly all the minifigs that were either complete or close to complete.

When I'm working on sets having all these guys stand up makes it sooo much easier to scan them all. Speeds the process up considerably. Then they all go back in a box to save space. So that's it, my patented quick sort method for minifigs. While I'm sure everyone has there own way of doing a sort like this, this method has worked well for me over the last few years. Now go get to sorting.  
This the eighth entry in a series of blogs that analyses some of the data we have available here on Brickpicker to provide some simple averages to use as benchmarks.  I have done the Star Wars, Ninjago, LOTR/Hobbit, City, Super heroes, Technic, and Friends themes and this time it’s a triple header!  I’m going to put three retired popular movie based themes up at the same time – Harry Potter, Indiana Jones, and Pirates of the Caribbean.
My aim is to provide some basic stats for the theme mainly around averages for a few simple measures relating to set sizes and value for money metrics.  I’m going to leave out investment return measures such as CAGR and the various ROI time periods we have available as I think they should be a different discussion and the fact that current retail sets often muddy the results when looking at theme wide averages.
This information should prove useful in writing other blog articles or set reviews.  It also should serve as a benchmark to be able to compare a set against the averages for its theme, which may or may not be useful but the option is there.  Over time as I hope to complete more of these blog posts we might also be able to compare themes against each other.  
Basic Information
I have gathered data on 84 sets from Brickpicker set pages across the three themes.   I’m only going to look at US based information in regards to retail price etc.
Of the 84 there are 53 Harry Potter (HP) sets, 17 Indiana Jones (IJ) sets, and 14 Pirates of the Caribbean (PotC) sets.
I can also tell you that of the 84 sets 7 of them had no listed retail price (promotional giveaways).  So we need to exclude those from some of the later measures that require a retail price to be present. 2 for HP, 1 for IJ, and 4 for PotC.  
Pieces
The average piece counts per set are 322 pieces for HP, 353 for IJ, and 303 for PotC. 
 
Retail Price
For the sets with a retail price the averages are $35.58 for HP, $37.55 for IJ, and $48.69 for PotC.  Interestingly the PotC theme has the lowest average piece count but conversely the highest average price. 

Price Per Piece (PPP)
Whether you like using PPP as a measure of value for money or not I have included it here as it has become quite a common metric for people to use.  Personally I don’t put much stock in it and find it quite a blunt tool.  The averages are $0.119 for HP, $0.106 for IJ, and $0.158 for PotC per piece.  Carrying through from the above metrics we can see PotC is well above the other two themes
 
Price Per Gram (PPG)
PPG is in my opinion a better indicator of retail value for money.  It takes into account the amount of raw ABS plastic material you get in the box and should be a closer approximation to the cost of production of the set. The average PPG measures are $0.058 for HP, $0.056 for IJ, and $0.044 for PotC.  This is a turnaround for the PotC results – what it most likely shows is that the PotC sets contained a far larger proportion of big Lego pieces compared to the other two themes.  This makes sense intuitively as PotC has a few ships with larger hull and other pieces.

Minifigure Count
Only 2 HP sets and 1 PotC set do not have a at least one minifigure.  The average minifigures per set are 3.56 for HP, 4.41 for IJ, and 3.57 for PotC.  All fairly high results, showing that minifigures played a large role in the marketing of these sets.
 
Another interesting piece of information is that of you pay an average of $9.98 per minifigure at retail price for HP, $8.51 for IJ, and $13.63 for PotC.   Thanks for reading and I hope you find a use for some of these numbers either in your own writing or your own investment decision making.  
By now, chances are you have seen several of our members posting in the Forum that they have seen random Technic sets at a few Walmarts. On Walmart's website, all of last years line of Lego Technic are listed as "Out of Stock", but "Coming Soon" (you can see this here). Target's website actually allows to purchase any of last year's Technic sets (assuming they ship). Furthermore, if the fall of Toys R Us as a retailer does come to pass in the next several years, one would assume that this line would end up getting picked up by most of the other retailers - or at least Amazon. It remains to be seen whether any of these retailers would start carrying them in B&M stores, but either way they are going to be available to more people. So is this a good thing for Technic as an investment?
For the people that end up purchasing Technic sets after they are gone, we would have to wonder why they do it. Did they just never see that set? Do they not have a Toys R Us near them? Were they too young? Chances are, most of this comes from people that like the theme and just missed the boat - or furthermore got into the theme after the set came out. Really this is just like an other theme. The difference is, Technic has a much more "cult" following. It is definitely not for everyone and is extremely challenging really appealing more to AFOLs. One could argue that the majority of people who would be into Lego Technic already are, and branching it out is not going to gain a ton more fans or really do a whole lot else for the theme. On the other hand, it could just be that Technic is very unknown at this stage; getting it out there could really fuel the fire for this theme to get going. Before long, it could become one of the best investment themes. Let's take a look at some of the pros and cons of this.
Pros
Especially if Technic starts getting carried inside the B&M stores, these sets will be seen by many more people. Looking back, I think Lego Technic has made unbelievable steps forward in design and detail in the last several years. The sets are so much more real looking than they were just several years ago and with the adding of power functions to a good majority of the sets, they are beginning to appeal to a much wider audience. A bigger audience can't be bad right? Chances to buy these at bigger discounts. Where do most of us get our Technic? Amazon UK. We definitely get some good discounts, but we have to deal with damaged boxes, items not showing up, and the massive wait to just get them at our door. If Amazon US is giving us these deals, we won't have to worry about shipping. They will be at our door in two days. We also wont have to order 5 sets to get the best deal either. Clearance Technic: If these hit big brand retailers, this means we have a shot of getting these on clearance at some points. Toys R Us really never clearances anything Lego, and when they do it equates to what should have been the retail price. Though this wouldn't have an insanely large affect on the investment of the brand (other than 1000s of the same set being clearnaced), this would at least give us the chance to get these at a sweet price and score an awesome Technic set for peanuts every once in a while. Technic flipping during the holidays: One thing that seems to commence every year during the holidays; Out of stock sets. We see one set go out of stock, then the price soars and everyone runs around like a chicken with its head cut off trying to find more of them. This year, that set was really the Dolphin Cruiser. I made some really good money flipping several of those. A lot of the Amazon sellers made a pretty penny running around grabbing up Architecture sets from Barnes and Noble. Why couldn't we get in on the fun with one more brand? The Technic Quad 9392 and the Crane 9391 both dried up very early in the Christmas season this year and the prices for both about doubled. Unfortunately, I only had one TRU which I cleaned out immediately. However, I have 6 Walmarts and 4 Targets within close vicinity so things could have been different. There are definitely some notable positives to having this brand around more.
Cons
This is an "underground" theme for a reason: Technic is not for everyone. You can argue Disney Princess, or Friends, or Ninjago is not for everyone as well - but Technic requires a certain ability building-wise. It isn't an entry-level Lego theme. So it may not attract as many casual fans. A lot of people would see these sets in stores like Walmart or Target, but they may not buy them, or at least continue to buy them, because putting them together is really more work than fun in a lot of cases. More stores = more sets. This means more and more will be sold. If the supply goes to the point where it is over the demand, the secondary market starts to go buy-buy. Maybe all the people that currently pay secondary market prices for Technic are people that never really knew a certain set existed. They end up reading about it or seeing a picture and then pay double for it. That wont happen anymore if you can walk straight into a Walmart and find any set you want. More discounts = less secondary growth? Its very possible that Technic sets grow as well as they do because you can't buy them at steep discounts. Lets say you are looking to buy 42009, the MKII Crane. It's retail is $220. Toys R Us has a sale and it gets to $200. You purchase 2 and call it a day. On the flip-side, Amazon US has a deal and sells these for $140 - you buy 5. The more sets bought, the more the investment value could go down. You are getting them at bigger discounts, but if that supply starts to go over the demand line you are still in the same place. Why mess up a good thing? Technic sets in general average just above a 9% CAGR. However, the theme has been around for a very long time meaning a lot of sets stopped appreciating a long time ago and are still averaged into that number. In fact, Technic sets in the last 5 years have supported extremely great ROIs provided you followed the better sets like Cranes, Service trucks, and Motor cycles. A lot of us make good money off Lego Technic already - why would we want to take a chance and have it screwed up? Furthermore, we are the only ones getting the big discounts because the average person most likely doesn't know they can get these off Amazon UK. Conclusion
I definitely see both sides of the argument. Obviously none of us reading this, or me writing it, can really make the decision ourselves. We can hope one way or another though. I honestly hope they do come to stores like Walmart and target. First off, there are already enough themes that are profitable in the Lego brand that having one possibly going by the wayside isn't going to kill us. Yes, it will somewhat stink if that happens, but we have a lot of other themes at the moment we can focus on. I think it is worth the chance because of what Technic COULD become if it does.
I see the whole situation in a very positive light. I have a Technic set, 42004 Back-loader, on my desk at work. I have it next to an Xwing, a few planet sets, the mini-VW bus and the Creator Prehistoric Hunter. Everyone that comes in notices the Technic set first. They love the moving parts, think it looks extremely real, and most are surprised it is actually Legos when I tell them. I think there is a lot of untapped market out there for Technic. People that love vehicles have always been attracted to Lego because of how well they replicate them and this theme is the pinnacle of that.
However, there is another reason this could really be big: Licensing. Right now, we have the Unimog - licensed by Mercedes and because of that, a lot of us think what is somewhat of an ugly vehicle will be a big time seller. Why couldn't Lego expand this with a bigger audience? Can you imagine a John Deere Tractor? NASCAR themed Technic Racecars with power functions and remote controls? The possibilities are really endless. I have commented before that in Alabama, Lego is not huge because the majority of people down here love Guns, Football, and Farming/sports vehicles. If Lego taps into these well known licenses, Alabama would be a gold mine. I can imagine a Jimmie Johnson Car replica Technic set selling for 4 or 5 times retail after it retires to the same people that have 50 of the same model cars throughout their house down here.
Does spreading the theme out mean this will happen? No. But at the moment, if these sets do spread out everywhere it will possibly make Lego invest more money into them. They will start thinking of more licensing options with the wider availability. If they do, we could have on our hands one of the best themes ever in terms of pulling in new Lego fans that were never interested before. Maybe its a dream world, and its definitely just speculation. But I don't think many can argue that more fans of Lego means more money in all of our pockets.
Welcome to part 2 of the Disney sets! While going through these sets for this set of blogs, I think I have gotten even higher on them. Obviously I am going to go over why on each of the last 3 sets, but I think overall there are some big reasons to think that these sets will be huge down the road. So let's take a look at the last three (All CAGR values based on a two year run and two years of retirement):
41053 Cinderella's Dream Carriage    
Lego.com Description: Lead Cinderella on an enchanted carriage ride to the royal castle ball! It’s the night of the grand ball at the castle! A pumpkin has been magically transformed into a carriage by Cinderella’s fairy godmother who has left behind her magic wand. Open the door, unfold the steps and help Cinderella into the beautiful carriage. Be sure to remember the invitation! Watch the golden wheels turn as the white horse leads the carriage past the pretty fountain on the way to meet the Prince. Includes Cinderella mini-doll figure and a white horse.
Includes Cinderella mini-doll figure and a white horse Features turning golden wheels, opening doors, unfolding steps and a removable roof Includes a flower gazebo with pumpkin patch and a fountain with translucent water element Accessories include an invitation to the ball, magic wand, broom, flowers and a golden head decoration for the horse Open the carriage door and unfold the steps for Cinderella Dress up Cinderella’s horse with the head decoration Detach the horse from the carriage and set it free for its own adventures Remove the roof of the coach for easy play Cinderella’s Dream Carriage measures over 3” (10cm) high, 7” (19cm) long and 1” (5cm) wide Investment Outlook: While this one isn't one of my favorites, I think there is obvious serious investment potential in this set. Cinderella's Carriage does not necessarily have a huge "iconic" scene tied to it - unless you count it turning back into the pumpkin - but the carriage itself is something desirable to any Cinderella fan. Lego lovers love vehicles like carriages and they also love horses - which this one comes with! This set is one of the most display-able of the series to while still having a decent amount of play value. The extra stuff included like the horses head decoration and the fold-up steps actually make sense to the set unlike some of the other smaller sets in this theme. Being able to remove the roof of the coach adds a lot of play-ability as well. On the very slight downside, I don't love 30$ sets with only 1 minifigure. It does have the horse, but since there is another Cinderella in a much more desirable set, I think this hurts it a little bit. I also feel like the carriage could have been just a bit bigger as we already have the smaller 20$ and 30$ sets in this series. If they added maybe Cinderella's sisters and the Step Mother, made it bigger and a $50 set, I would have liked it more. Also, who the heck is driving this carriage?!? Either way, the set will still be wanted by pretty much every Disney fan just because of what it is. If this was a whole line of Cinderella, I would say this set might be overwhelming, but with the one minifigure being an exclusive variant and the Carriage being what it is to Cinderella, I think this set easily doubles your money. Predicted CAGR: 25% Predicted Value: $73.24 41054 Rapunzel's Creativity Tower     Lego.com description: Help Rapunzel paint the walls, bake cookies or capture Flynn Rider in her enchanted tower! Rapunzel has been locked in the tower with only Pascal the chameleon for company. That’s why this princess, with her famous long hair, has become extra creative. Help them as they spend their days painting on the walls and baking cookies in the kitchen. Brush her lovely hair and decorate it with the pretty bows. When Flynn Rider breaks in with the stolen tiara, Rapunzel has to bash him with the frying pan and tie him to the chair. Join the pair on their adventures with each other! Includes 2 mini-doll figures: Rapunzel and Flynn Rider, plus Pascal the chameleon. Includes 2 mini-doll figures: Rapunzel and Flynn Rider, plus Pascal the chameleon Features hidden stairs, attic, large window, fireplace, mirror, chair and a flower decoration Also includes a small separate kitchen Accessories include Rapunzel’s hair brush and bows, book, chocolate chip cookies, paint brush and palette, chest with extra paint, frying pan, tiara and a bottle Play hide and seek with Rapunzel and Pascal the chameleon Bake chocolate chip cookies with Rapunzel Pretend to comb her long hair with the brush and decorate it with bows in front of the mirror Paint beautiful images on the walls with the brush and palette Reveal the hidden stairs for Flynn Rider to access the tower Pretend to help Rapunzel tie Flynn Rider up in the chair and go after him with the frying pan! Rapunzel’s Creativity Tower measures over 12” (32cm) high, 4” (12cm) wide and 4” (11cm) deep Investment Outlook: Honestly this is probably the most complete set of the series. The tower is excellently done and the small "fluff" pieces like the painting set and the cups and hairbrush just add tons of play-ability to the set. This is the one set that I think all the parts and extra pieces really match well together. I think the tower is very nice looking - definitely something display-able and because they finished the whole front of it - it looks like its a full tower from a distance. The fact that the tower isn't finished is great for children playing with it so they can get to it easier. The hidden stairs are also really nice and it has two great minifigures as well. I think the fact that this is the only Rapunzel set will make sure its a winner no matter what, but the amount of detail added to this set is really nice. My only complaints would be - the price is a little expensive for a set with only 2 figures and 299 pieces at 40$. I think that will hurt its investment value just a bit. I also really think they should have emphasized Rapunzel's hair a little more as well. It is supposed to be stupid long, but it should definitely stand out more on the minifigure. I also am not hugely fond of the giant stickers on the side of the tower. Even with those facts, with the height in popularity of "Tangled" still among us, this set is going to be a winner. It will not be the set I stock up on the most, but will bring a pretty good return for a $40 set and will definitely be worth paying attention to. Honestly, I would take both the Carriage and Kiss the Girl set over this one though. Predicted CAGR: 20% Predicted Value: $82.94 41055 Cinderella's Romantic Castle     Lego.com Description: Make the royal ball at the Castle with Prince Charming a night to remember for Cinderella! Prince Charming has invited Cinderella to a romantic royal ball! Play with Lucifer the naughty cat and with Bruno the frisky dog. Explore all the different rooms at the Castle and find the key that unlocks the treasure chest with all the jewels. Romance is in the air as Cinderella and Prince Charming enjoy their first turn around the dance floor and a cozy moment in front of the fireplace. Just make sure Cinderella leaves the Castle before the big clock strikes 12 and the magical spell wears off. And remember to leave behind her famous glass slipper on the stairs outside so the Prince can find her again! Includes 2 mini-doll figures: Cinderella and Prince Charming mini-doll figures, plus Lucifer the cat and Bruno the dog. Includes 2 mini-doll figures: Cinderella and Prince Charming, plus Lucifer the cat and Bruno the dog Features tall towers, flags, throne, clock, bedroom for Cinderella, beds for Lucifer and Bruno, outdoor eating area, river, bridge, flowers and a swing Accessories include Cinderella’s enchanted shoe, a hidden love letter, tiara, 5 heart-shaped diamonds, treasure chest and key for the door, a lipstick and a brush Also includes a bone for Bruno and a bowl with milk for Lucifer the cat Help Cinderella get ready in the bedroom Discover the hidden love letter under her bed Take a romantic walk over the bridge and give Cinderella a push on the swing Feed Lucifer and Bruno and tuck them into their beds Cinderella’s Romantic Castle measures over 11” (30cm) high, 9” (25cm) wide and 8” (22cm) deep Investment Outlook: Ok I don't think anyone here needs me to tell you this is a winner. Lego builders LOVE LOVE LOVE castles. Really they are something that make the most sense to build out of Lego bricks right? Much more sense in the beginning than a Millennium Falcon or a Train, right? So thinking about it, what is the most popular castle you can think of? I think you would have a hard time arguing it isn't Cinderella's Castle. If you have ever been to Disney world, you know how huge and amazing this castle is and how important it is to the Disney brand. When people get to Disney who have never been there, this is one of the first things they want to see. Combine this with Lego lover's affinity for Castles and you have a match made in Heaven. This will absolutely be a huge winner. As for the set? Putting aside the iconic argument, the Castle is really so-so. It's not a "full castle" and seems a little bare in a couple of places.  It only comes with two minifigures and 646 pieces is one of the smaller castles in the Lego collection. On the other hand, it does capture the scene really well. It looks like it would display very well and all the little extras provided add play-ability for smaller children. I do really like the dog and cat and the treasure chest as nice added bits. While small, there aren't a ton of cheaper "mid-level" castles in the Lego portfolio so it may almost help this set that it is a more affordable $69.99 as most Castles are $100 sets. In the end, this set really is just too iconic to fail. Despite the Cinderella figure being in the other set and the other flaws I mentioned, I don't think there is a Disney lover out there that wont want this set. Don't think about it - if you see this set for $50, buy it immediately. You will see a serious return. Predicted CAGR: 30% Predicted Value: $200 My Wife's Take: Since this was a theme just absolutely made for my wife, I asked her to weigh in on a few sets and tell me what she liked about them and which were the best. First off, Kiss the Girl was immediately purchased. She said that set was one she had to have immediately and she really didn't care about my "don't buy a retail" rule. Other than it being really small, that is her favorite set and she has already shown it off to several jealous friends. As for the theme in general, she loves what they did and sees it geared towards kids more than anything, but there is enough there for adults who love Disney too. She wants the whole theme. Cinderella's Castle is the most "well made" set in her opinion and thinks it will be the one that is most desirable in terms of demand. In all honestly, her biggest complaint was that they didn't make more of these sets (which I don't think will be a problem). There isn't a bad set in the theme in her eyes. Other Thoughts on this theme: I think Lego is serious, as they should be, about this theme and I think they have really learned a lot about what is popular with their Lego Friends theme. If you have seen or built any of these sets, they are extremely similar to the makeup of those. There is less emphasis on multiple minifigures and more on exclusive minifigures (every one but Cinderella in this theme is) that look really good and have more play value than a normal minifigure as they move a little smoother and are just a bit bigger. With the success of the Friends theme so far in the secondary market and this theme mirroring that, I don't think there is any way this theme does not absolutely kill in the after market. Its a licensed theme, meaning it will probably retire a little quicker and its one that you have to imagine will be continued with how many Disney movies and fans there are. With Lego Friends as a theme sporting over a 50% CAGR at the moment, I am going to say that my predictions for this theme could be extremely LOW. I certainly will be looking for these sets every chance I have on sale and will not hesitate to buy them. They are all relatively smaller sets too which should bode well for storage. If anything, this theme will pull tons of new people into Lego bricks which is good for everyone. I worry with every passing month that we will hit a period where Lego just really doesn't have a great lineup of themes - like now that Harry Potter is done and LOTR is possibly nearing the end. This merger proves that is not the case and we are all going to find that out... with our wallets.
Hello everybody,
Time is money as the old saying goes and that theory applies to Lego investing and reselling.
Allow me to introduce myself a little. I'm a critical analyst during work hours, a husband with beautiful kids in the weekend (of course) and ... English is my third language, so apologies for my grammar.  Lego was (and is again) one of my biggest passions as I picked it back up in 2012 after the traditional "Dark Age" which lasted more than a decade I'm not proud to admit. I've been reading the blogs of more than one site, listening to the videos of most renown Lego-connaisseurs. Most aspects of Lego are well covered on the web: set reviews for example have become a commodity. Some stuff was lacking. And since I've been growing some experience over the last couple of years, I thought it was time I tested some personal insights on the community. Please read this blog as story of me growing up as a Lego investor.

I hope the article will be somewhat different to what you've read until now... 
In my life, time has become the rarest commodity. I'm actually at a stage at work where instead of asking for a salary raise, I negotiate extra flexibility and free time to do other (obviously more) interesting stuff. Image that you have to manage two kids, a 50h/W job, family events every second weekend, garden/house  improvements... When would I find time for my  Lego bricks, games, sports and books I love so much?! It seems therefore paramount to allocate my time extremely effectively. Chose  my own priorities carefully:  boss - wife - kids - hobbies - family: in what order? And what if I started a new project? I'd have to do that even more efficiently!
As far goes theory, but what did I do? I started the "brilliant" idea of buying second hand Lego sets at steep discounts and resell through Bricklink for a "fat" profit margin... Was this clever? Nooooooo! Looking back at the plan, it seems pretty laughable now. (No offense to anybody - this is my personal experience on paper)
So I bought big lots from people who wanted to get rid of all their sets at once when they enter the dark age. Using the web to find second hand deals and driving from one place to another to get that  maximum discounts. After cleaning up the wares, I post them on BrickLink - easy money, I thought.
Let me tell you quickly why that was a bad plan:
TRUST: 

You cannot trust the second hand market. 80% of lots I bought were incomplete. 99% of the sets have bricks that are damaged or marked. Selling incomplete sets on Bricklink is next to impossible and requires to discount sharply. Worse are the astute sellers (on the 50 deals I made, at least 10%) who fake their ignorance and leave out that one rare flag, antenna and/or replaced that expensive hair piece of a minifig... You can't check everything even when you buy on location. Luckily I rarely had orders shipped, but the ones that did arrive by mail were even worse off.
Did you know "black plume (code: 4502a)" in 6066 Camouflaged Outpost ... is worth 20% of the set? I do now, after buying that set on a local market without checking the presence of that little black plastic ornament. 
I bought 6087 Witch's Magic Manor another day for 15E (50% discount to BL 6m sold price). Four elements were missing: Red Dragon Wing, the cape of the which and two shields. I had to order from three different stores to complete the set...
COMPETITION: 

As a buyer on second hand platforms, I am up against others who have more time and know-how. Any auction on Ebay was scrutinized by at least 50 other Lego-investors. I know for a fact of colleagues who spend their lunch breaks surfing for deals. And how many pensioners aren't sorting pieces and stacking them away just to make a day go by more quickly? How can I compete with them? I would need a sorting machine to beat them... Maybe I should've bought only during the Summer, hoping the biggest crocodiles are on holiday?
And again, I speak from personal experience... There was that "huuuuuge " star wars lot which I though would be an easy doubler/tripler. The discoveries I made were quite nasty. The seller had mixed Lego and Megablocks together to have the lot look larger. Some figs were missing, many smaller rare parts too... It took me several months to get everything sorted and as I didn't have the exact list of all sets that were junked together in those boxes the work of assembling the right sets was hard. The follow-up process of ordering the missing rarer pieces just was a nightmare. Expensive hard to find items are systematically spread over different shops. Therefore duplication of shipping fees is unavoidable. Costs, time and effort rise exponentially. A very good reason not to buy that second hand stuff...and I learnt it the hard way. After my family had waded for weeks through piles and piles of bricks, I  decided to throw the towel in the ring and make a discount clearance. The final P&L of the transaction will never be clear. There were so many "moving parts" and costs that it wasn't looking good. 
PRICE: Buy cheap! 

Nothing new there. Apart from finding the sets with the highest potential, the talk of the town on Lego-forums is about "the best" deals.  Obviously I knew that too. So as a rule I started buying second hand at a minimum 40% discount. (ha... ha...ha...) Pretty soon,as I bought almost everything during the first month like a donkey pooping cash, I raised the hurdle to a steeper 60%.But that angered some sellers  who  treated me of opportunist ( = crook) ... I don't like to be that treasure hunter who rips off the lazy adolescent or confused grandma . A good deal in my book is one both the seller and buyer can be satisfied about. Bargaining on the second hand market just didn't seem to be my thing apparently. But if you have the elephant skin, good for you I guess.
During the Summer I sell used sets for some cash and a good chat on the local street market. There are three king of buyers: First are those who love Lego from their childhood and buy for their kids and get a fair price. Second the ones who think Lego is good quality but too expensive for their hyperkinetic kids. And last them who ask: '50$ for everything?'...
I count myself in category 1. 
DISCIPLINE:

Parts need to be clean, checked, counted, listed and packed. Without making mistakes! It seems I'm not the perfectionist who can re-assemble sets with 2000+ pieces. If a (in most cases Dutch ;)) buyer complains about one or two pieces and asks for a refund, I can't be 100% sure he bluffing. Standard reply is a 5% discount, in order to close the deal and move on. And that mean a lower ROI of course.
Did you notice that light blue grey becomes light grey after being exposed to the sun? How can I be sure the old castle sets were in fact complete? This uncertainty is a source of frustration for the buyer and seller. And that makes the business modem of reassembling used sets unreliable
  SPACE

My house is no castle. Space = value. And assemblage and sorting requires a large table and lots of boxes/stacks. It's cold in my basement and there are no windows. It's just not a great place to be. The spiders couldn't disagree more. Second, even though I have success in selling used Lego-sets on the local toy-market, it requires them to be built and showcased. But that takes up even more space! And did I already mention the BrickLink buyers who demand a picture of the set to judge of its quality? That means three steps more: build it first, take a picture, decompose it again and only then box it back... sigh...
Selling used sets on Bricklink? Not for me thanks. Many buyers are too demanding in my opinion. "This white has yellowed, the grey is light blue, there's a scratch, the box is dented, ... Seems easier to assemble and sell at the local toy-markets during the Summer. Because these sets take up large chunks of storage space which I'd rather fill with new sets, that process needs to be accelerated. I price myself below the market, take the cash and reinvest in higher ROI new sets. And by the way: MISB take dust on the box, used sets have it all over the bricks.
DEMAND - SUPPLY:
 
When strolling through the second hand websites, I noticed the police and fire sets were really cheap. Pretty quickly I could build a super safe town full of police stations and fire departments. But when I wanted to sell them, things became quite complicated. Kids want the latest police station from the folder. Adults have already one set for their town. No need for a second. When I had figured that out, and tried to bid similar (50%) discounts on star war sets or Technic boxes, systematically I got outbid! And the "really attractively priced" exclusive set offers were scams. By choosing to pay cash at reception, I avoided those traps.
When the rarest sets went systematically above the BrickLink price, a little bell started ringing. The laws of supply and demand were working. LEGO on the www is an efficient market.
MATH:

The net margin on my sales were disappointing. I bought sets on average at a 45% discount. After ordering the missing parts that margin goes to 30%. Take the additional discount I offer,  there's only 20% left. The size of the average used set is in general also smaller as I cannot rapidly check and sort that many loose parts. That means reverse scale effects (the more valuable the set, the harder it gets), making it a low volume low margin affair...
I understand that parting sets is a very popular and to some a lucrative business. Others re-assemble Green Grocers, Cafe Corners and Market Streets to make the extra bucks. I have the utmost respect for the $/hour return they accept. 
And this brings me to the crux of the article:
"ROI"? NO!
N.I.C.H.E.: YES!!!
 
The lesson I have learnt from all these misadventures  is now very clear in my mind. I will never again go for return on investment. This is just a flawed metric. Every purchase has to be ranked according to the "NICHE": the Net Incoming Cash per Hour and Effort
Let's take for example Viking set n° 7019 I bought at 60$ last year. Getting it was an hour drive. Another second hour of sorting, ordering missing parts, paying, tracking, completion. And it's not even sold yet. It has been sitting on Bricklink in its original box for more than a year at the cheapest rate of the lot, laughing at me and taking a large chunk of space in the stockroom. In fact, it cannot be stacked vertically nor at the bottom of other sets because the box was opened and is therefore weaker.
Analysis:
Expected ROI: 50% = 30/60 = great!!
Expected cash return? 30$. = less great
Cash /hour invested = 30$ / 2 = 15$ (that's below the minimum wage in Germany!)
Net Incoming Cash per Hour x Effort = 15$ / 3 = 5$
Remember: This set has taken me at least 3x more time & effort to get ready and sold than any MISB.
So I've become wiser. Maybe not clever yet, but at least learning fast. I respect a new set of rules before I buy anything: 
BUY LOW (you knew that) and LARGE: this way the cash value is high and the NICHE goes up. BUY sets with structural demand traits that ship easily. Make sure the end market is large. As I'm writing, I'm not sure Hero, Chima, Ninjago, Mindstorms have deep enough end markets. Star Wars, Technic, Friends, City, LOTR have it. This is food for another article. Time is value. Don't look at ROI. Do I like selling polybags? No. Are these ROI interesting? No. I haven't calculated the minimum cash amount a set should offer as I haven't set the minimum threshold for my NICHE yet. But I can guarantee it is higher than 5$. Take the NICHE strategy and maximize it. Make up your own personal mind what factors you attribute to "effort". It should take into account: storage, quality, risk, insurance, end markets, shipping complexity (on extremely large sets)... Conclusion
Did it seem to you as well that this article would never end? Well that's because there are so many factors I underestimated when I started lego-reselling. What seemed to be low hanging fruit - reselling used sets - appeared to be a rotten idea from the start.  Through this article I hope other "start-up" investors like me will save some of that precious time.
Thanks for hanging in there and good Luck Brickvesting!

 
As we all know, The Lego Group is currently experiencing the prime of their existence of a company. They made over a Billion dollars for the first time ever, have even more products than ever, and is by far the most popular toy in America. They have teamed up with the likes of Marvel and DC, Star Wars, Lord of the Rings, and Harry Potter to get there and improve what is already a mighty brand. So what could they add next that will be able to take them a step higher? What other license could they get that would take them any higher? How about pairing it up with one of the most marketable brands of all time: Disney Princess.
Disney may be the proverbial "match made in heaven" for Lego as they expand their relationship with them. Just as Lego is experiencing its unparalleled prime, Disney is doing the same. Take a look at the Stock for Disney over the last 10 years:
 
As you can see it has doubled in the last 5 years. Just about 8-10 years ago, Disney was cutting budget, closing their parks early, and the future didn't look quite as bright. Lego was in a similar position right before that time almost going bankrupt. However, both companies weathered the storm and forged ahead to experience some of the most profitable times companies in their respective industries ever have. Disney World has experienced a growth in around 2 Million visitors each year for the last 6 years. They lead the world as the most visited Theme park... by 80 million people per year. Stores are filling with more Disney product and Disney stores are starting to pop up everywhere. Vinylmations, small Disney and other license likenesses on small figures with Mickey ears, have become extremely popular (my wife and I have around 100) and have even become decent investments themselves (some of the original lines sell for 10x retail!).
So with the union of their Disney Princess Line and Lego's fabulous mainline product )I don't count those Duplo sets), will it bring us something we could only... wish for upon a star? Let's take a look (All CAGR predictions are based on a two year run and then 2 years of retirement).
Ariel's Amazing Treasure 41050
               
Retail: $12.99
Lego.com Description:
Discover Ariel’s Amazing Treasures in this amazing underwater world!
Ariel and her best friend Flounder are searching for lost objects from the human world. Explore the beautiful coral reef and the pretty golden gates with them. Go with Ariel on her adventure to discover all these treasures and hide them away in the treasure chest. Help Ariel practice her singing using the sheet of music, swim through the gates and play tag with Flounder. Includes Ariel mini-doll figure and Flounder.
Includes Ariel mini-doll figure and Flounder Features opening golden gates and a treasure chest in a beautiful seaweed surround Accessories include a diamond, pair of binoculars, music sheet, trident, opening shell with hidden pearl and a starfish Search for the many objects and hide them away in the secret treasure chest Look for the pearl inside the shell Help Ariel practice her singing with the music sheet Golden gates measure over 3” (9cm) high, 3” (8cm) wide and 1” (5cm) deep Treasure chest measures over 1” (3cm) wide and under 1” (2cm) wide and 1” (2cm) deep My Investment Analysis: This is a great little set. Though it only has one minifigure, it is the perfect one: Ariel. The Little Mermaid is a staple in the Disney Princess line (My Wife's Favorite character by far) and really is to it what Frodo is to Lord of the Rings or Luke Skywalker is to Star Wars. The Little Mermaid is has sets of some of the most recognizable Disney songs and characters. This set is perfect minifigure-wise coming with her and flounder. The rest of the set itself is so-so - I think it might have been a little better if there were more "trinkets from the land world" but it still has a lot of playability with all the treasure. The music sheet is a really nice addition since singing was really the crux of who Ariel is in the movie. This is not one of those sets that will triple or quadruple right after retirement, but I see a lot of worth here. Disney lovers who are older will like the set for the Ariel figure. Small children will love it as a simple set with a lot of playability. I say it will be one of the better winners for a $12.99 set.
Predicted CAGR: 20%
Predicted Value: $26.93 Merida's Highland Games 41051
Retail: $19.99
           
Lego.com Description:
Have fun with Merida and her magically transformed brothers by the castle!
Merida is practicing her archery skills for the Highland Games! But her 3 little brothers have been turned into naughty little bears and it’s up to her to keep them out of trouble. Join Merida as her brothers shoot cookies from the catapult. Hang up her bow on the beautiful tree or help her catch a fish in the stream. Cook the fish over the fire and, when the food is ready, have dinner at the castle’s dining table… but first Merida must find the hidden key to unlock the door! Includes Merida mini-doll figure and 3 bear cub brothers.
Includes Merida mini-doll figure and her triplet bear brothers Features Merida’s castle with an opening door and key, key hook, flowers, dining table, cookie-shooting catapult, tree, mushroom, stream and a camp fire with a fish roasting Accessories include a bow and target, fish, chicken leg and 3 cookies Help Merida discover the secret key to the castle Catch the fish and cook it on the camp fire Toss cookies into the air with the catapult Merida’s castle measures over 3” (8cm) high, 5” (14cm) wide and 1” (4cm) deep Tree measures over 2” (7cm) high, 3” (8cm) wide and 1” (5cm) deep My Investment Outlook: I admit, I haven't seen this movie (actually maybe admitting I have seen Disney movies is bad for my "man card"), but I don't need to and neither do you. The movie is POPULAR. First off, its about a Disney Princess who is not really that... princess-ish. More boyish in actions, crazy hair, and a little bit of a wild-child, Merida is someone that a lot of young women really identify with. On top of that, young children love her as well and she has really become the more "modern" Disney Princess.
The set itself is a little "meh" in my eyes. The little bears and the archery set is nice and is definitely something that would have to be in any Merida set. The castle-front is well done, but I don't think it really adds a lot to the set. It isn't really that impressive and I am not sure that it really offers much play-ability to younger kids as well. I would have liked this as a slightly bigger set with a more "full" looking castle.
At the same time, the Disney Princess figures of Merida are GONE during Christmas every year. I know because I try to get my young cousin one every year. No matter what this set has in it, the fact that Merida is in it is going to propel it forward. I can not imagine it will not be a huge winner and that the Merida figure wont be a 30$ or 40$ figure later on.
Predicted CAGR: 25%
Predicted Value: $48.80
Ariel's Magical Kiss 41052
Retail: $29.99
         
Lego.com Description:
Enjoy a magical boat ride with Ariel and Prince Eric in the lagoon by the palace!
Come with Ariel as she seeks to break a magic spell! The enchanted mermaid has traded her voice for a chance to be with the lovely Prince Eric. Only a kiss from his royal lips will break the spell! Take a romantic boat ride with her true love where they meet a frog and stop at the tree in the secluded lagoon. Have a beautiful picnic by the sea or a romantic meal in the dining room of the palace. And when Ariel wants to see what is happening in the world she left behind, go to the telescope on the balcony and take a look. Includes 2 mini-doll figures: Ariel and Prince Eric.
Includes 2 mini-doll figures: Ariel and Prince Eric Features a royal palace with dining room, bellflower lamp, roof terrace, flags, railings, flowers and telescope, a gazebo boardwalk, plus a lagoon with a tree and a frog Includes a boat with oars and a flag Accessories include a picnic basket, croissant, banana, green apple, royal crown and 2 heart-shaped diamonds Enjoy a delicious lunch in the castle dining room Let Ariel look through the telescope towards her home under the sea Take a romantic boat ride past the lagoon Stop for a picnic by the sea Royal palace measures over 5” (13cm) high, 5” (13cm) wide and 3” (9cm) deep Gazebo boardwalk measures over 2” (7cm) high, 2” (6cm) wide and 3” (10cm) deep Lagoon measures over 1” (5cm) high, 2” (6cm) wide and 1” (5cm) deep Boat measures over 4” (11cm) long and 1” (3cm) wide and under 1” (2cm) high My Investment Outlook: What a great mid-range set. I would argue that this may be the most famous Disney scene of all time. Sure there have been a lot of them, but this is really the crux of this movie and something that I think appeals to women everywhere who have ever wanted to fall in love. The song is a classic - one of, if not the most memorable, Disney songs. My wife looked at this line and immediately squealed when she saw this set. I think this will end up being the biggest winner of the line.
Unlike the last two, all the parts really go together in this set. Everything is part of the lagoon, the boat is really nice with the oars, it has a lot of play-ability, and also doesn't look bad at all as just a display-piece. Though I was hoping each set in this line would be from a different movie, this works fine as the Ariel figure is different - this is the one with actual legs. If you get the other set, you will have to get this one too. DO NOT miss out on this set - it will be a winner pure and simple.
Predicted CAGR: 30%
Predicted Value: $85.65
Check back in for Part 2 of the analysis. I will cover the other three sets, go over some other reasons that this line may be THE one to watch over the next year and my wife will also weigh in a bit more with her "normal person" thoughts on the sets themselves.
Many of us grew up on LEGO City sets.  With each passing year, LEGO seems to produce a new Fire or Police Station, yet many of these sets still appreciate very well in the LEGO secondary market.  Let's take a look at some City sets that might do well in 2014...
First, and in all fairness, I have to tell you I'm Canadian - BUT - that when I head to the US I drive north.  Yes, I live in Windsor, Ontario,  Stephen Colbert's least favorite city on the map.  Being Canadian means that a few sets on this list might not be as readily available in your neck of the woods but as of early January 2014 most are still in stock at TRU.CA, although if you think US TRU prices are bloated, I warn you to check their Canadian counterpart whilst sitting down lest you crap your pants while standing (which everyone knows is better than doing so whilst sitting) - yes that is MSRP for TRU here.  Some of the sets on this list are also available at other retailers in Canada, so I would surmise that some stores somewhere close to you might have some of these.
Why City?  I know I write about Friends a lot, and I came out of my dark ages largely because I was blown away by Star Wars UCS sets, but as a child City scenes were always my favorite.  Trains, houses, buildings, etc.  Especially trains, and trains need destinations.  With all the sub themes that have been done since I was a child, today's young builders (or me, a middle-aged builder) have so many more awesome options than when I was a lad.  Another reason for City?  A healthy CAGR of over 20%, which is actually really impressive considering that TLG releases so many City sets.  Obviously with that many sets there are likely some real winner and some duds.  I touched on the Coast Guard theme a little in a different post, so I'm not going to re-write about them here, but suffice to say I still like the three biggest sets in that sub theme to appreciate nicely.  If you see any of these three with a nice discount, I'd grab them.
With retailers seemingly slowly restocking it is hard to say what you'll have access to in your neighborhood, but whatever City sets get stocked are a good bet to see sales and possibly clearance before the summer wave of City: Arctic sets (I think the sled dogs are awesome) and that is when I'm targeting these sets (as well as any other promo/sale/deal I can find).  Perhaps I can convince you to do likewise?
Lego 4204 The Mine

Target Level: Very High
As the largest set in this sub theme, the gold mine is, to me, a very solid investment pick.  Lego has only done this sub theme once, and anything unique has a lot going for it, as well as the fact that this set features a ton of playability as well as displayability. (yes, that is a word now).  Construction-type sets have done pretty well - check out the numbers on the 2009 Construction sub theme, and I think this Mining theme correlates loosely with this theme.  Essentially, the two largest sets are approaching plus 100% from retail (7633 Construction Site and 7632 Crawler Crane).  The Mine did very, very well during its first Christmas, as third party Amazon sellers were selling this for $177.  This Christmas was solid but unspectacular, as the sets are largely gone from brick and mortar locations and can be found mostly online.  Demand won't be as high as some other sets, but you likely don't have as much competition from other investors as City sets tend to not get much talk on the forums.  Even now, Amazon.co.uk has them 31% off (although I picked up six before Christmas during the 40% off sale, which basically made them 50% off Canadian retail) so I think there will definitely be opportunities to pick these up at a sizable discount.
Target Price: 30% off US retail
Target Sale Price: This 2012 set is likely going to be phased out for the upcoming Arctic sub theme, giving it a roughly two year run, and I'd think by 2016 my target sale price would be $180-$200.  It seems unlikely for this to get a reboot anytime soon, so I think you probably have 3-4 years from now without worrying of remakes.
Lego 3368 Space Center

Target Level: High
This set, unlike those in the Mining sub theme, is already on the way out, so much so that the door is literally hitting this set on the butt as it escapes.  This is still available at TRU.CA and probably can be found at mom & pop type places or lesser known retailers than the big three or four.  Amazon.co.uk had these on for thirty pounds just before Christmas and sold out quickly, so if you do see these on sale hesitation might result in missing out entirely.  While space has a long history in Lego lore, this is the only City/Space sub theme, and since it sold out at S&H prices have already started to rise.
Target Price: You can get this now for $89.99 + tax at TRU.ca, but they haven't sold out of them at this price so I'm inclined to wait for at least 20% off and/or a good promotion that gets you a free polybag.  Getting this at US retail ($69) or lower is pretty solid.
Target Sale Price: You won't have to wait long on this one.  If you can score a good deal you could probably try to list it as a BIN in the 2014 holiday season.  Space is always popular with kids and there shouldn't be too much competition from too many rival sellers (I don't think I've read one forum thread about this sub theme or set).  For the first holiday season post-EOL I don't think $130-140 is outlandish, and I'd feel comfortable saying another $20-25 for the next Christmas.  The only danger is that space is popular and I'd expect more space sets of some kind sooner rather than later.
Lego 4440 Forest Police Station

Target Level: High-Medium
I normally don't see a huge amount of growth in Police-based sets because they are so numerous, but I can tell you anecdotally that I easily sold my Robbers Hideouts and Police Dog Vans on kijiji in November and December, so retired police sets do seem to do better than you (even I) would think.  Seeing this, (the colored Canadian money) I'm now pretty hot on this set.  It has a lot going for it - a police station that likely won't get a redo anytime soon, a cool bear and a very interesting design (at least to me).  Sold out at S&H, time is running out to get this set.
Target Price: I'm comfortable at this point with anything in the $50s, although once a set sells out on S&H it can be tough to find good deals as panic buying sets in.  As time goes by, you might even be tempted in the low $60s.
Target Sale Price: $150.  I think $100 by this Christmas is realistic, (which is actually Canadian retail!) but it will probably be at least another year (plus) beyond that to hit around double retail.
Lego 4207 City Garage

Target Level: High
Considering this was on sale at S&H recently and didn't sell out immediately, I was wondering if it was simply a case of investors not having enough post-Christmas funds or perhaps lack of knowledge.  The last City Garage set from 2009 sells for $200, even with this garage set providing competition at retail!  It is also a TRU exclusive, and now that S&H has sold out, it is likely the only place you're going to get your hands on them.  To me, that makes this set a no-brainer.
Target Price: Now that S&H is sold out, US TRU lists these at $139.  I think that is crazy!  I think a BOGO 50%, possibly with a coupon or promo is the best way to add these to your portfolio now.  TRU seems to often have their exclusives for some time after S&H, but if a good sale does come along, it might be your last chance to get these below retail.
Target Sale Price: The old garage sells for around $200, and this garage should do just as well, although inflation and a higher retail price might make this a $220 set or so a couple years after retirement.  Since it could move to 'retired product' at any time, I'd be on the lookout for a good TRU sale as soon as possible.
Lego 60020 Cargo Truck

Target Level: Medium-Low
I've snagged a couple of these from amazon.co.uk recently at 30% off UK retail, but I think there is plenty of time to add more to my portfolio.  I'm actually inclined to think they'll eventually be 40% off for a short while and that is a price I would no be able to say no to!  Especially because it isn't that large of a set but is $50+tax (13% for me!) in Canada at retail.
Target Price: $25 or less (I'd go as high as $30 for Canadians)
Target Sale Price: $80 or better.  Like the other Cargo sets, this will likely be available for quite some time, so load up when you see them on clearance but I'd wait for something better than just 20% off.
Lego 60021 Cargo Heliplane

Target Level: Medium-Low
I stocked up on these when amazon.co.uk had them for twenty pounds.  They shipped two to a box and not one was assessed customs fees, so I was pretty pleased with myself to get them at this price, even though I know I'll have to wait a long time for this set to retire.  I'd only bite on more if they were cheap enough.
Target Price: I like these at anything under $35 for Canada, probably under $30 for the US
Target Sale Price: I see this as a $100 set more than a year after retirement.
Lego 60022 Cargo Terminal

Target Level: High
I'm targeting this a little more than the other 2013 sets because I think this has the best chance of being a set that sells out during the 2014 holiday season and can be sold and then purchased again in early 2015.  Planes are always popular - even promotional planes and small City plane sets seem to do well.  The last City Airport (3182) sells for double retail, and I'm confident betting that this set has the same potential once retired.  That being said, it has a long haul until retirement, so I'm looking for very good sales/deals/promotions before I bite.
Target Price: 30% off or more, so $70 in the US.  In Canada, I'd go as high as about $80 or so.
Target Sale Price: I think this is easily a $180-$200 set after retirement.  I think it might be possible to sell this for $130 or so in the fall of 2014 if it sells out at S&H and other major retailers, which it might.
Lego 60026 Town Square

Target Level: Medium-Low
This set is pretty nifty and large City sets typically do very well after retiring.  The reason for the low target level is that this set likely has anywhere from 12-18 months on shelves, both physical and metaphorical online shelves.  I add it to the list because it is definitely a set I would grab with a very good promotion, even though I generally wouldn't want to tie up too much capital in a set that probably can't be sold for a really nice profit for two and a half to three years at the earliest.
Target Price: Under $100.  This will be easier for US residents but I'm committed to getting it at this price one way or another.  Luckily I live ten minutes from the border so if I can't get a really good sale in Canada, I'll have to go north to the US.
Target Sale Price: $200+.  This is a huge set and I think more than $200 seems reasonable after it retires.  As it is relatively new, that is likely 18 months or more away, so no rush to get this unless the deal is amazing.
The great thing about City sets is that there are a lot of them, the theme is very popular and it seems because it is so widespread that different retailers have solid deals on these sets at different times.  I think City sets are also (I'm speculating, here) the most opened and played with sets, or at least among the leaders, which means not a lot of NIB sets sitting in basements across the world.  It pays to target the cream of the crop, if you will, but I'd advise picking an entry price point you can live with and stick to it.  Plenty of others that aren't on this list would get my attention with a big enough discount, but these are sets I think will really help diversify your portfolio and make some steady and solid gains.
LEGO Technic sets are an overlooked commodity in the LEGO investing world.  Many Technic sets appreciate very, very well after retirement, yet many investors will ignore these sets.  I just built my first Technic set a couple of weeks ago and I have to say, I am hooked. Loving Star Wars, I have always been a big fan of vehicles, but Technic sets take it to the next level. All the parts move, lots of sets can run with motors in them, and most are extremely challenging to build. I can not wait to build more Technic sets and add to my collection.
The great thing about Technic in the investing world is that it is a fairly untapped market. First off, most investors don't pay a ton of attention to Technic. It does not have as many fans as other licensed themes and is only sold at the Lego store and Toys R Us in the US, meaning few discounts. Amazon UK has been the lone saving grace for us. However, there are certain Technic sets that perform extremely well. Take a look:
Not bad huh? What this means is that if you pay attention, you can find some serious winners in a theme with a lot less competition! Here are the sets I will be seriously looking into next year.
Note: I am assuming with this that all the 2012 sets will be done shortly besides the 9398 crawler (you will see it below). I think a good majority of them are winners and have multiples of each, but for those reasons I will not be targeting them).
I would also suggest anyone who hasn't to read part 1 and part 2 of Quac's Technic EC blogs. I have them bookmarked and use the charts to judge sets constantly. Quac's knows his Technic.
42000 Grand Prix Racer

Target Level: High
There is really nothing you can say about this set that is not said when you see it in person. It is AMAZING. Its about 2 feet long and looks so smooth and solid on the outside. I really think from 5 feet away it looks like a model car. It has tons of pieces and is a very fair price-point of $130. Even more awesome, you can inser thte motor functions into this baby and really let her rip (well as much as they will without mods).  The set also allows the hood to pop up exposing the sections where the engine would be.
As far as an investment, this one has the >100$ MSRP. Quac's mentioned in his article as well that the sets above $100 do quite a bit better in the Technic world. Technic loves like huge sets with lots of cool parts and intricacies. In my eyes, this set fits that mold perfectly. Quac's warned that cars have not had a seriously high ROI, but I think this will be one exception. Racing is huge in the US and in parts of Europe, and though this is not a NASCAR vehicle, I think it will be something that appeals to that crowd quite a bit. Watch out on Amazon UK - if this one hits 70$ again, DO NOT flip it. This set will appreciate nicely in the long run and honestly there is no reason you shouldn't pop one open to build it. If you have to settle for Toys R Us, I still think you can find a way to grab some around $100, which is still a winning price in my eyes.
Target Price: $90
Target Sale Price: $250
42004 Backhoe Loader

Target Level: medium
This was my first Technic set I ever built, and I think its awesome. There have been quite a few backhoe loaders in the Technic port folio, but not too many at this smaller price point. Despite how cheap it is at just $25 retail, this set is awesome. Every part of it moves, it has a bucket at both ends and is really solid. The wheels on this set are really sturdy as well and it rolls really smoothly. I think the set is a killer representation of a bigger vehicle.
I keep this set on my desk at work and get a lot of comments on it. It is something that I could see being a perfect gift for Technic fans, and just fans of construction vehicles. In the past, construction equipment has done extremely well and I think this set will be right along by it. Amazon UK is probably not the best place to find this set since it is cheaper and shipping and the price conversion might make it too expensive, but I think this is a safe bet at even $25. This past Christmas, it rose past $35 even though it was in stock at Toysrus.com and Lego Shop @ Home.
Target Price: $20
Target Sale Price: $50
42006 Excavator

Target level: High
This set is an obvious winner to me. The last two Excavators, back in 2010, both have grown nicely since retirement and I don't see why this one shouldn't follow that trend.
I think this set is perfect for a mid range set in between these last two, but even more awesome because of the end piece. The other two have a normal excavating bucket, but this set has a 4 Pronged grabber. FOr the Technic fans that are getting tired of the same old Construction equipment, they now have something different to add to their collection. The extending arm is really solid for a smaller set and the tracks just make it even better. It also is one of the cheaper sets to take the power functions set, making it perfect for people who don't want to buy a $300 Motorized Excavator. I think this set has a good chance to maybe outperform the last two because of where it is at price-wise and value-wise, so I will not be caught without a stash of these.
Target Price: 60$
Target Sale Price: $200
42007 Moto Cross Bike

Target Level: High
This set is just awesome. Technic fans love Motorcycles, as referenced below, and this one is the cream of the crop for me. When you look at this set, it doesn't even look like Lego pieces - its so well put together and smooth. Whats even more cool is that it matches up with the 9392 Quad which will be good for the people who like collecting the smaller sets. Though this is a smaller set, and those traditionally haven't done as well, I think this one will be the exception. This is another intracate smaller set that works perfect as a gift or a desk display piece as  well as being a toy.
On top of all this, Motocross itself has a lot of fans who love models and toys depicting the sport. I used to really love model cars and hot wheels and Motocross stuff was always extremely popular. Any Motocross fan would love to have this set. I think the only downside of this set is the MSRP. This one is a little more expensive at $40, meaning for it to double and triple, you are getting up in the territory where people might expect a bigger set. For that reason, to be safe, I would try to get this one at a little bigger discount than the others on this list. At the same time, it is right in play if Amazon UK has a nice sale.
I am hedging my bet that this one is going to be a huge gainer for such a small set though and could be the best of all the ones listed here. Definitely don't get caught with a few of these... or more!
Target Price: $30
Target Sale Price: $100
42009 Mobile Crane MK II

Target Level: As High as my wallet will let me
Do you want to see a set that is a homerun pretty much hands down? Look no further. This set is going to absolutely soar. It is insanely detailed, absolutely massive, has power functions and is one of the most challenging sets Lego has ever put out. One of my friends at work picked up this set and it is just incredibly impressive. Every detail of the crane is perfectly done. It had 5 booklets with him and took him about 27 hours to put together. It is about 3 feet long! Just has something for everyone.
Lets take a look at the comparison between this crane and the last one that came out in 2010 and retired in 2012:
Name Mobile Crane 8053 Mobile Crane MK II 42009 Pieces 1289 2606 Retail $99.99 $219.99 CAGR 25.43 ??? Highest Price 278.50 ??? Um... Yeah, we have a winner. The first crane had almost tripled in price in less than two years being retired when this one came out. Obviously this one has hurt the price of the first one because it is so much better. Why would you pay $300 for that one when you could pay $220 for this one? Either way, it shows us what this set will undoubtedly do (if you think that "undoubtedly" is a strong word, I refer you to Quac's part 2 of his Technic article for some number crunching on the set). This set may be the best one ever and may even outdo the 41999 Crawler in the end.
The fact that this set is huge is a big plus as well. As I mentioned before, the larger the set, the better it has done historically in the Technic line. This is one of the biggest there has ever been. There is no reason it shouldn't be one of the biggest gainers of all time either. Even if they make another one, I doubt it will be bigger than this one. And history says you will get plenty of ROI out of it before that happens.
Target Price: Any discount
Sale Price: $550
So there you are. Any omissions you see? Any problems with the sets I have mentioned?  
Every time you are confronted with a Lego set for sale your brain makes a decision on whether or not it would be a good purchase.   Sometimes people put a lot of thought into this decision, other times not and it’s an impulse buy.  Usually the main question that you ask yourself internally (if buying for investment) is can I make a profit on this set?  This is often quickly followed by shall I buy it now or wait for a better deal at a later time?  It’s this later decision that I’d like to examine more.
One of the main things discussed here on the Brickpicker forums is “deals”.  Discounts on sets at all the major and minor retail outlets are poured over in detail.  And rightly so, the effect of a discount on the initial purchase price of a set can have a significant impact for the investment return down the road.  Probably secondary to that topic is EOL (End of Line) or expected EOL dates.  When is the set going to retire from retail availability?  This is often when the secondary market price begins its largest period of appreciation.  What I struggle with at times and I’m sure many others are the same is combining the two.  Is the discount right now large enough to justify holding the set for X amount of time before it goes EOL, or is my investment capital better put to use elsewhere?  Sometimes it’s discussed or thought about but it’s not very often examined in any scientific or quantifiable way.
What I’d like to do in this article is come up with a formula that will guide decision making on whether it’s best to buy now or use your money for something else and perhaps buy later.  There are a myriad of factors or variables that potentially come into play when making this decision, but there are 4 main ones that I’m going to focus on.  These 4 variables should form the crux of any buying decision and if you can quantify them you’ll go a long way to simplifying part of the equation.  The other variables can come into play afterwards, of which I’ll list some later and of course there are a few cautions along the way which I hope to point out as well.  Bear in mind I’m only really attempting to try and map out the logic process that already does or should happen in your head when faced with a decision to buy and put some numbers into those process components.
Also, this decision making process is really only needed for investments purchased with a view to holding medium to long term, at least until after the set has gone EOL.  It is not for flipping or parting out which usually require different purchasing strategies.
Let’s look at the 4 variables in detail and examine the things that will or may factor in to determining your individual values for them before uniting them into a combined formula.
Price
This is the easiest one to answer and the number should be known exactly.  It’s the price of the set in question, after any discounts that may be on offer.  Things to consider:
Considering Lego VIP points earned (usually 5%) as a discount off the current set any promotional giveaways at their estimated value as another discount is also good accounting practice (but not essential) Don’t forget to add on any sales tax if applicable Add on the cost of shipping to you if buying online and it’s not shipped for free If the purchase has quantity discounts/offers such as BOGO (Buy One Get One) 50% off etc then take the sum of the purchase and divide by the quantity of sets to get an average for each one Your Average Annual Rate of Return %
This one is a lot trickier and comes with many factors to consider which I’ll list below.  For simplicity think of it as – What annual percentage return do you think you could get from using that money you are about to spend by putting it into a different set or even a different investment class (many people invest in things other than Lego).  It is essentially your opportunity cost.  Many experienced investors will know what their average annual ROI (Return on Investment) is across their entire portfolio if it is well tracked and documented (e.g. you made 40% profit last year – great use that).  Others may not and after checking in on the forums with peoples thoughts on what an average might be it appears that opinions vary widely.  Nevertheless you should spend some time to think on your own situation to come up with this percentage, there are many factors to mull over which include:
Selling and Listing fees – you have to cash out sometime and taking expected fees off any paper based profits will give you a more realistic cash out figure Selling platform and market – related to the fees above, but also where you choose to sell can affect the price you get.  Ebay, Bricklink, Craigslist, The local village market etc.  Plus do you sell local, national, or international?  It all adds in to determining your profitability. Postage & packaging - Some people factor them in to their selling price, others charge them on top to buyers.  Either way it impacts your profits Damages & losses – Lost or damaged shipments to buyers (when buying yourself you are often covered by the retailer).  Do your kids/dog rip into boxes etc.  All adds in as an expense Gas & mileage – Do you drive out of your way to hunt for deals?  Do you need to drive to the post office to ship sales?  Add that cost in if you can or think it’s material Time – now this one is individual preference.  Some serious investors like to cost in their time spent researching, deal hunting, buying, listing, selling, and shipping, at an hourly rate.  Others don’t as they are doing it as a hobby and don’t see it as ‘a job’. There is a good article detailing these and other expenses here.
Now you should have some idea of a reasonable annual rate of return that you could get by investing in other sets.  Maybe you think you can make 20% on the stock market, go ahead and use that.  It’s your choice dependent on your circumstances.
Expected EOL date
Now here’s the real tough one!  It is very rare that the future EOL date of the set you are looking at is 100% known.  It is almost always necessary to make your best educated estimate here.  There is plenty of talk, rumours, speculation, and occasional hard fact, about EOL dates on the forums.  There is good reason for that as when a set disappears from retail availability it usually starts to experience price growth on the secondary market, and that’s what we are here for!
So obviously you are not going to know the exact date, but there are some factors that you could consider to come up with your best guess:
The time the set has been out - things like Ewok Village or Tower of Orthanc have just been released and you can reasonably expect them to be around for a good while longer.  The average of 2 years retail is a decent yardstick for most average sets, but larger SW and modulars have pushed well past that.  That leads into; The theme a set is from - Some themes have a reliable track record of EOL turnover.  City sets for example.  Is the set from a "one off" theme like Monster Fighters etc?  How long have others within the theme stuck around for?  Does the theme refresh itself with new release waves replacing older ones at regular intervals? Retail stock levels - is the set getting hard to find on store shelves.  Talked to the manager about ordering more and they can't get any?  This adds to the picture. Rumors and aggregate opinions of store employees - Yes Lego or other store employee information is usually meaningless and baseless when taken at an individual level.  However, did the information come from a store drone or from a manager - even then it's still not bankable.  But start to hear the exact same story from 5 or 10 different sources and you can put greater strength in the information being accurate.  That leads into; Information from the forums - people spend a lot of time talking EOL dates here.  Again, isolated information needs to be examined as to its source (is the member reputable and well known for having a proven track record of insight etc?).  People discuss the above factors and more and often come up with a loose consensus of when a set may EOL.  Take that information and apply your own logic to it and come up with your own gut feelings - then share it back on the forums like others do to help refine it. OK, now you should have some estimate of an EOL date.  What you need to do is take the time difference between today (the day you are looking at buying) and that EOL date, in years.  E.g. if today is 1 Jan and I think the set will go EOL around the end of June, so that is 0.5 years.  This EOL timeframe is important as it give us the window in which it should still be possible to pick up the set from a retailer. 
If you want to be a bit more accurate than just taking an approximate value in years the formula for calculating it is:  EOL date minus todays date to give a value in days then divide that by 365 to give a value in years.
Expected Price before EOL
The 4th thing we need relates a little to the EOL date above.  We need to have a gauge on what a future retail price opportunity may be on or just prior to the set going EOL.  This lets us factor in possibly holding off on the purchase now in order to pick it up later.  Worst case scenario you can use the full retail price (MSRP).  If you have access to a Lego retail store or have a Lego Shop at Home (Lego’s online store) retail price for your region that is the same as the one at the retailer you are deciding on, then you can take an automatic 5% discount if you belong to their VIP programme.
There are also plenty of sets that have frequent discounts.  Or you may be in a locality where stores often have Lego clearance sales when sets get close to or go EOL.  In that case insert a discount price that you are confident of being able to secure near the EOL date.  
Combining the Variables into a Formula
Ok so you should have values for the variables we need.  Here is a summary
Price (P) in $ - the final price of the set you are considering Average Annual Rate of Return (AARR) as a % - your opportunity cost return that you could get by investing elsewhere Expected EOL Timeframe (EOLT) in years – the amount of time in years between todays date and the date you estimate the set will go EOL Expected Price before EOL (EOLP) – the price you expect to be able to still get the set for just before EOL Now we need to introduce a little math.  Using the abbreviations above, insert your values into this formula to find the amount of money you will be better off by or worse off by if you purchase the set:
Value = EOLP - ((P x AARR x EOLT) + P)
If you’re ‘not a math person’ and that seems a bit scary here is a step by step run through of how to calculate it:
Take the price of the set and multiply by you Average Annual Rate of Return (e.g. if 30% then 0.3) Take that result and multiply by your expected amount of years until EOL date (this result is your opportunity cost) Take that and add the set price to it (this is the amount of money you could have at the EOL date if you don’t by the set and invest it elsewhere) Take the estimated price of the set at EOL (after any discounts e.g. 5% or even MSRP) and minus the result from step 3 The result you are left with will be either a positive or negative dollar value.  If it is positive then this is the value you would be better off by if you purchase the set – so you should probably buy it.  If it is negative it represents the amount you will be worse off by if you purchase the set as you could make more money by investing elsewhere and then buying the set later – so you should probably hold off.
The result is obviously only as accurate as the info you use to feed into it.  As we talked about above the variables themselves can have a lot of estimation involved in them.  For this reason I would like to suggest building in a tolerance margin for the outcome.  I feel a tolerance margin of plus or minus 5% is reasonable to consider as a start point.   If you feel your variables are quite accurate you can narrow the tolerance margin and if on the other hand you think you’ve made some pretty wild guesses or it’s just too hard to know you can increase them.
Take the Value you have calculated and divide it by EOLP.  Then multiply by 100 to give a percentage result.  If the result falls between -5% and +5% then it is in the tolerance band and the decision is too close to call.  If it is over +5% then you should buy it, if below -5% then consider investing elsewhere.
If you are an Excel user I have created a simple spreadsheet that you can plug the variables into that does all the calculations for you.  If you would like a copy please ask in the comments below or send me a forum PM, here is a screenshot:

(note for the majority of you that will be from the US, the date format is d/m/y – as it should be )
You can input all your variables, changes the tolerance bands and there is a price calculator to the side for quickly figuring out prices after discounts.  Feel free to play with it, change it, and adapt it to your needs if you have the will and technical capability.  
 
Caveats and Other Variables to Consider When Buying
As mentioned previously there are a number of factors that come into play when making a buying decision.  The tool I have developed really only simplifies a few of the major ones.  Once you come up with a result from it, you should then consider these other factors as well that will likely influence your decision.  Here is a list of a few of these other variables:
Capital restrictions – do you have the available funds to make the purchase?  As funds get tighter you’ll need to likewise tighten your buying decisions to make only the very best purchases, or come up with more capital possibly decreasing your AARR if you borrow Storage restrictions – can you fit more sets in your house?  Can you use storage from friends/family.  Or are you large scale enough to pay for a storage facility, again impacting your AARR Your risk appetite – Are you a conservative or risk taking investor? Diversification – do you put more or less weight on buying this set because you want it in your portfolio to increase your diversification? Investor Scale – Small to medium investors can probably get away with only buying their sets close to EOL.  But large scale investors need to spread their purchases over longer periods both for logistical reasons as well as trying to avoid possible buying limit restrictions. Time restrictions – The ‘cost’ of time was discussed above, but there is also the fact that time is a limited resource.  As you grow your investment portfolio there is only so much time you can spare to hunt deals and have available to sell your inventory to cash out.  Otherwise you’re going to have to hire someone or have a sympathetic partner! Stock shortages or limited time deals – is the deal so good or supply so low that the set may disappear if you don’t act fast? Those factors combined with the multitude of things that also go into the 4 variables we have attempted to use all mean that buying decisions can never be an exact science.  Hopefully though we have gone someway into simplifying part of the decision or at the very least mapped out the process for that decision making.  Even if you don’t use the formula I hope you have taken something from it to enhance your own process. 
As for when to sell, that’s a whole other discussion and probably has more variables involved than buying decisions!  Everyone has different strategies that work for their individual circumstances and there are a few good articles and forum discussions on the topic as well.
In conclusion, I’d like to invite constructive criticism and discussion on the topic in the comments below.  Feel free to pick holes, tear apart, mull over, or send effusive gifts.  This is by no means a finished product and by sharing our knowledge and thoughts we can all improve our investment capabilities.
This the seventh entry in a series of blogs that analyses some of the data we have available here on Brickpicker to provide some simple averages to use as benchmarks.  I have done the Star Wars, Ninjago, LOTR/Hobbit, City, Super heroes, and Technic themes and this time it’s the turn of Friends!
My aim is to provide some basic stats for the theme mainly around averages for a few simple measures relating to set sizes and value for money metrics.  I’m going to leave out investment return measures such as CAGR and the various ROI time periods we have available as I think they should be a different discussion and the fact that current retail sets often muddy the results when looking at theme wide averages.
This information should prove useful in writing other blog articles or set reviews.  It also should serve as a benchmark to be able to compare a set against the averages for its theme, which may or may not be useful but the option is there.  Over time as I hope to complete more of these blog posts we might also be able to compare themes against each other.
Basic Information
For the Friends theme I gathered data on 78 sets from Brickpicker set pages.   I’m only going to look at US based information in regards to retail price etc.  I’ve even included info on the new 2014 sets that have been announced so far.
For the Friends theme I’m going to split the analysis into Promotional/Animal collectible polybags vs the rest subthemes. There are 21 Promo/Polbags and 57 Other sets.  This helps separate the info out so that you can compare polybags with their like, and other sets aren’t muddied by the low averages the small polybag sets will have.  Totals will give us the overall results for the whole theme.
I can also tell you that of the 78 sets 4 of them had no listed retail price (promotional giveaways).  So we need to exclude those from some of the later measures that require a retail price to be present.  
Pieces
The average piece count per set is 156 pieces.  When split by Promo/Poly and Other sets there is the expected difference present with 35 and 201 average piece counts respectively.
 
Retail Price
The 74 sets with a retail price have an overall average of $18.35 for retail price.  This is split to $4.54 for Promo/Poly sets compared to $18.35 for Other Friends sets.

  Price Per Piece (PPP)
Whether you like using PPP as a measure of value for money or not I have included it here as it has become quite a common metric for people to use.  Personally I don’t put much stock in it and find it quite a blunt tool. 
The overall average for the 74 sets is $0.14 per piece.  That seems a little high compared to the conventional benchmark of $0.10 per piece, especially given there is no license fees for the theme.  New moulds and colours and new minifigure types probably push the budget up a bit for this Lego line.  Or TLG is just making a good margin!  For Promo/Poly sets it is $0.17 and for Other sets the result is $0.13.
 
Price Per Gram (PPG)
PPG is in my opinion a better indicator of retail value for money.  It takes into account the amount of raw ABS plastic material you get in the box and should be a closer approximation to the cost of production of the set.
There were 7 sets that I could not find a weight for, as they are 2014 releases so info is hard to et.  That means we have 67 sets to play with for this section.  The 67 sets the overall average PPG is $0.10.  For Promo/Poly sets it is $0.162 and for Other sets the result is $0.079.
 
Minifigure Count
Of the 78 sets 56 of them have at least one minifigure.  The average across all 78 sets is 1.03 minifigures per set.  Promo/Poly sets average 0.29 for and the Other sets the average is 1.30 minifigures per set.  Those are fairly low averages.  Many of the Poly/Promo sets don’t have a minifigure and instead have a small animal included.  Also many of the larger sets come with only 1 minifigure, only 19 of the sets contain 2 or more, with only 3 containing 3 and the largest – 3185 Riding Camp with 4.

Another interesting piece of information is that of you pay an average of $17.90 per minifigure at retail price.  Again, quite high – those special Friends minifigures must have a fairly high production cost.
Thanks for reading and I hope you find a use for some of these numbers either in your own writing or your own investment decision making.
In the first part of the series I started about Chima and my belief that this line will be a winner, I talked about the fact that there were a few sets with short lifespans that were worth taking a look at before they were gone forever. Lets go back over a few of my main points of why the first Chima sets to retire may be the best ones to have:
Chima seems to be popular among Children Chima has a TV Show driving its popularity This a Lego theme - they will not let it fail Short production runs on the sets currently retiring If Chima explodes as Ninjago has, these sets could be the "Holy Grail" Ignored by the majority of investors You may not agree with all of these points, but I feel the reward that could come out of investing in these sets is well worth the risk. So this blog is going to cover 3 sets that are retiring, why I think they are winners, and a bit of proof to go with it.
70011 Eagle's Castle

Lego.com description:
Battle for the golden CHI at the Eagle’s Castle!
Soar to the Eagle’s Castle, deep inside the eagle territory of Chima, and compete in an epic battle for the Golden CHI! Attach Lennox and Worriz onto their Speedorz, pull the rip cord, fly up the ramp and aim for the CHI! Hit the CHI, open the wings of the Eagle’s Castle and reveal the golden CHI to win! Attach the power-upz and take the battle to the next level! Set includes 3 minifigures with assorted weapons, 2 Speedorz, 2 rip cords, 4 weapons, 2 power-upz, 12 CHI and 10 game cards. Put your timing and accuracy to the test with this lightning-fast game for 2 players!
Includes 3 minifigures with assorted weapons: Ewald the Eagle Leader, Worriz and Lennox Features Eagle’s Castle with eagle’s wing function, ramps and golden CHI Also includes lion and wolf Speedorz, 2 rip cords, 2 power-upz, 12 CHI and 10 game cards Weapons include 2 CHI weapons and 2 standard weapons Battle for the golden CHI! Attach the power-upz and take the battle to the next level! Pull the rip cord and unleash the Speedor! Compete with your friends in an action-packed game of skill! Collect the entire LEGO® Chima Speedorz series to create combo games! Investment Outlook: I don't know for sure, but I assume Ed coined the phrase "Spinners are Winners!"? Either way, its spot on. So Speedorz should follow the same path, correct? Well, unfortunately I am not so sure. Most of the Speedorz have a couple of problems. First, they overall just don't look as good as the Spinners from Ninjago do. I think what set Ninjago off was several bigger sets that included Spinner battle arenas and were extremely detailed. As for Chima, Lego may have a mistake (Gasp!) by making the sets a bit too simple and flooding the market with too many different types of them, diluting the pool of possible winners. Most of these have been severely discounted by retailers and still sat by the 100s in stores because of these facts. During December, they sold maybe slightly better from what I could tell, but most of them were not coming close to retail. So avoid this one as well, right?
I would advise against it.
First off, despite the market for these being the way it is, there are still Speedorz fans. If you have walked into a Lego store with one of these displays, the children are all over it. On top of that, this is the most recognizable of the Speedorz and seems to be the most popular one. From the look of it, this is by far the best set and has the most pieces to it, as well as 3 quality minifigures. As with the other sets we are looking at, it is retiring soon even though it just came out in January. We all know some of the most successful Lego sets have been 1 year runs. Also, being the best of the Speedorz sets, it will be by far the most sought after. Being the most expensive of them, it will most likely be stocked the least as well.  Finally, it is a Toys R Us Exclusive, so there are a lot less people that have actually seen it or purchased it than all the other speedorz sets.
Should you buy this at retail? Not necessarily - although I think it will still gain there. A lot of my investment value on this set comes from its clearancing in the Lego store. I picked up quite a few of these the last several weeks ago for 20$. At that price it is a total steal, and you hopefully will be able to find them in your local Lego stores as well. As for at Toys R Us, they have had a couple of good sales on these, and I really think you are pretty safe at 30$. Toys R Us exclusives seem to linger a bit longer because they stock them somewhat abnormally, so I think you still have a chance to get this set.
Its outlook? Well, we don't have any Chima sets to compare it to that are retired obviously, but we can look at a couple of takeaways. First, lets look at what it has done the last month:
Sold Listings: 40
Last 10 Sold Listings: $40.24 average
It certainly was not incredibly popular during the Christmas season, but it definitely rose quite a bit - only 67 listings in the past 90 days on Ebay meaning the last month (including the beginning of January) outsold the last two months combined considerably. This does not tell us a whole lot, but it does say that people were searching the set out. More over, the average sold listing is great. The set sold at retail - and has continued to do so making its investment outlook a lot better. Now that this set is sold out at Lego.com, and as it dwindles at Toys R Us, it will start creeping up. Now how about a good comparison?
Unfortunately there aren't a ton of good sets to compare it to, but there is one that I think is perfect : 2504 Ninjago Spijitzu Dojo. These set are eirely similar is about everything - although the Eagles Castle was 10$ cheaper. Also, the Dojo only lasted a year as well and has been a solid gainer since. Take a look at the similarities below:

See what I mean? I will agree the Dojo is a bit cooler, but it was a bit more overpriced so I feel like it will work itself out. This set was also, similarly, the best of the first spinner sets released.
I want to make it clear, this may not be a huge investment gainer - and definitely don't go out and buy a ton at 40$. However, I think this set has a lot of potential for the reasons mentioned above. Lego is seemingly getting rid of all their current Speedorz. If they don't come back, this becomes a possible "legendary" retired set. If they do come back, this is the original best set with the most to offer. On potential alone I think it is worth having and is an absolute no-brainer at half the price. Do not be worried about the overstocking or the clearancing of this item. It certainly didn't hurt the price during December and with just a one year run, these will dwindle soon enough.
Predicted two year post-retirement CAGR: 15%
Predicted Sale Value: $61
This is a very modest prediction - especially since several of the latest listings have sold at just under 50$. Looking at this, if you get this set at 20$ you will easily double your money. This set has the potential to go much higher than that, so a safe projection of doubling your money with the possible to do much more is the best you could ask for out of a small set.
Where to Buy: Unless TRU has another big sale, get this at the Lego store if they still have them.
70012 Chi Radar

Lego.com description:
Grab the Eagle tribe CHI with Razar’s CHI Raider!
Climb through the clouds and up to the Eagle tribe’s CHI temple in the sky with Razar’s CHI Raider! Use the 4 flick missiles, rear storage bay and poseable beak, wings, tail, legs and talons to battle past the Eagle tribe’s defenses! Ewar’s only defense against the raucous raven is to power up the CHI cannon and send Razar flapping back to his nest… unless Rizzo can sneak by to swipe the CHI with his hook tool! Includes 3 minifigures with a weapon.
Includes 3 minifigures: Razar, Rizzo and Ewar Features CHI, 4 flick missiles, rear storage bay and poseable beak, wings, tail, legs and talons Also includes mini eagle CHI temple Includes Rizzo’s CHI weapon Open and close the beak! Fire the raven flick missiles! Pose the wings, tail, legs and talons! Nab the CHI with Rizzo’s extended hook! Fire the eagle cannon and repel the ravens! Measures over 5" (13cm) high, 12" (32cm) long and 11" (29cm) wide Mini CHI temple measures over 2" (6cm) high, 6" (16cm) long and 1" (4cm) wide Investment Outlook: I know this section is called "investment outlook", but let's just ignore that for a second :). I love this set. First of all, its a giant freaking bird! Its awesome and goofy looking, but at the same time incredibly detailed. All the parts of it move, it has flick missiles and a cannon. Its just overall a really impressive set seen built. I have really struggled not to pop one open and take it to work with me.
Converting this to investment potential, this one is a little hard to read off-the-bat. First off, in December it wasn't one of the big toy purchases, and especially not on Ebay:
Average of last 10 sold: $34.35
So it didn't "fly" during Christmas. However, a couple of key points here. First, it went down to $27.98 at the Lego store and was sold out fairly quickly; one of the fastest of the in-stock discount sets to sell out. It sold out at my Lego store very fast two. Second, It was really never promoted or toted up by anyone during the Christmas season like the Chi Temple or Eagle Castle were. This is a Walmart exclusive and Walmart had a very quiet $31.98 promotion on these, but other than that it was all blank until the Lego store had theirs. This set will retire with about the quietest retirement you could ever have.
So why is it worth picking up? Well, this is a big sleeper to me. I have gone over why its such an awesome set above, but it is definitely one that appeals to people who like the theme. I part out a lot of Chima sets and the birds are the most sought after for sure. This one comes with three of them, plus the giant bird vehicle. In Lego what type of set sells the best out of anything? The answer is vehicles. Can you remember another set with a giant bird vehicle?
Also, a one year run and a completely under-the-radar retirement. There are not investors sitting around with 100 of these in their attic. Heck, I may be the only one here with multiples. But looking back at my thoughts on Chima, I really think this theme will start to explode once retirements start hitting and this is a set that people will look back at and say "how the heck did I miss this set"? In Lego investment history, there have been tons of sets that no one really seemed to want or want to pay for when they were out, and then retirement hits and they explode. I think this set has a good chance to follow in those footsteps. I don't believe it will explode right out of the gate, but as Chima continues to grow in popularity I think this set will see really nice growth with the potential to become one of the sets you regret buying. To me, that makes it worth it to have a good stash of them. And how many of us can say we are investing in a set no one else is?
Predicted two year post-retirement CAGR: 25%
Predicted Sale Value: $78
Where to buy: Check your Lego store. If they don't, try Walmart as many still have them at $31.98.
70013 Equila's Ultra Striker

Lego.com description:
Test out Equila’s Ultra Striker and protect the magical CHI!
Take Equila’s high-tech Ultra Striker for the ultimate test drive! Unleash the power of the Eagle tribe’s awesome battle machine featuring massive rubber tracks, huge opening wings, double eagle rocket shooters, front claws for clearing tracks and a cool ejection system! Equila, the great warrior and weapons specialist Eglor are on top of their game, but they must be ready to defend its CHI power when master hunter Wilhurt spots it! Make sure the crafty wolf goes back to his cave empty-pawed! Includes 3 minifigures and assorted weapons.
Includes 3 minifigures: Equila, Eglor and Wilhurt Features CHI, rubber tracks, opening wings, double eagle rocket shooters, road-clearing claws, opening cockpit and secret ejection system Weapons include a standard weapon and a CHI weapon Tackle any terrain with the massive rubber tracks Clear the roads with the sharp claws! Fire the eagle rocket shooters! Activate the ejection system and escape from the sky! Measures over 5" (13cm) high, 8" (22cm) long and 7" (20cm) wide Investment Outlook: 
This is the set that I think is the absolute gem of the early retiring Chima sets. It's another bird vehicle with feathers hanging off of it and the beak and talons in front. I think it has an incredible look to it as a tank but also a bird. This one is just special.
First, it again has tons of moving parts. The tracks, the wings and cockpit can open, the top can eject from the bottom section to fly ( similar to the Ultra Sonic Raider). As a playset, there really is not much more you could get for just 40$. Along with that, a lot of the pieces are rarer or exclusive pieces like the wings, the tracked rubber sections, and the yellow beak and tallons at the front. Overall, you get a lot of really cool pieces with this set as well.
Along with its short run, it is a Target Exclusive in the US - just like our favorite sets the Orc Forge and the Zombies. However, this one has even a bit more exclusivity being an exclusive in the UK as well with Smyth's Toys. I think there will be a considerable amount of Chima fans later on who have never seen this set and immediately want it because of the playability and special pieces. It was discounted on Legoshop.com early in December and sold out very fast. I actually wanted to grab a few more and they were gone before I got the chance!
Lastly, it again has two birds in it to go along with the tank representation of a bird. But the special Character here is Wilhurt. Although he is not exclusive to the set ( a lot of the smaller Chima sets don't have an exclusive figure), he is only in one other set ( a much more expensive one that may do some growing of its own) and he is a black wolf - the only one of the wolves that is black. I have sold him a few times and gotten 12$ for him pretty quickly. i think he will be a sought after figure.
How has this set done lately?
Average Last 10 Sold Listings: $47.40
It was not a popular set in December either although there were only 10-15 listings for it at any given time (which makes sense as a Target Exclusive) but more than half of the listings during that time were for over retail and a few were near 60$ meaning people saw the worth in this set. I think this one has a much higher ceiling that the other two and a lot more appeal. With everything said, and the exclusivity everywhere, I see some serious gains for another set you could really call a big sleeper:
Predicted two year post-retirement CAGR: 30%
Predicted Sale Value: $90
Where to buy: Target is your best shot now. I got most of mine when they were $31.98 on the weekend Target had the "10% off should probably make up for all your credit cards getting stolen" sale. I think at $31.98 this set is worth a bet.
Disclaimers: I do want to stress, make your own decisions. We really have no relevant data on this theme to back up anyone's projection. There were people that though Prince of Persia, Atlantis, and especially Toy Story would do well - and that meant squat in the end. I have really spent a lot of time looking through Chima sets and seeing them built, parting them out, watching sales trends on Ebay. however, this theme could do nothing and everyone could laugh at me (which is fine). I have not invested my whole port folio in these sets for sure. However, I think these sets have the potential to do even better than my projections - honestly I toned down my thoughts on Equilas Ultra Striker - I just think that set rocks.
Hopefully rather than make your mind up with my posts, I want to merely open the door for some of you to think about taking the plunge. Two months ago, I had that door padlocked, but I looked at everything decided the reward was worth the risk.
So its no secret that the 9468 Vampyre Castle has a big following on this site and a lot of people have stashed them away hoping for the killer gains that all the awesome Lego castle's seem to bring. Around November, we were all finishing buying out Toys R Us, the Lego Shops near us (on clearance), and Amazon while salivating over what was to come. Suddenly, Toys R Us orders somewhere near a million for each store to restock for a huge sale. The Vampyre Castle (9468) then showed up on ToysRUs.com as "Our Exclusive" and the debate and panic ensued. Should we return all the sets we bought? How long more will it be around? Will it affect the investment value? Is it worth buying anymore as they go on sale?
All of these are very legitimate questions. So I decided to write up a best and worst case scenario, some predictions, and some advice on what to do and think about this set. All of this is purely speculation - please do not assume I "know" anymore than one you. Just offering my opinions on the subject - as that's all we have at the moment.
The Set's Original Investment Potential
Obviously, no one knows what this set would have done if it had disappeared and fully retired as we expected it in December like the Helm's Deep. However, we have a good idea where this set was headed looking at what was going on with eBay during that time period. Here is a look at where this set was in November:
BrickPicker Value for the 9468 Vampyre Castle...October - $108.29
BrickPicker Value for the 9468 Vampyre Castle... November - $102.32
Last 10 eBay Listings(average) in November for the 9468 Vampyre Castle - $108.90
So this set was already selling above retail without being retired. The end of November was right in the middle of the TRU 79.99$ sale (when they restocked at each store mysteriously) and this set was still holding its value fairly well. There was a ton of demand as well with around 150 being sold in October to November. This set was starting to look like it could make it to $175 or $200 by next year. But the TRU restock scared a lot of us. Argument ensued with some still on board, others just slowing down, and others yelling "return!" and retreating from the set.
What Has Been the Effect So Far?
I was really curious to see what the "Real" value of this set was after Christmas. We all know sets inflate during Christmas and can sometimes make us think a set is worth a lot more than it actually is. I consider a sets "Real" value (obviously you can get a lot more for it) to be what it receives from 7 day auctions that don't end at night and don't only have one bid. I took the last 10 from this set after January (they are still selling quite frequently) following these rules:
Vampyre Castle 9468 Average Sold Price: $101.45
Honestly it doesn't look all that bad! There were several auctions with quite a few bids and there were more than 10 sold as Buy It Now auctions as well, so there is still a great demand for the set even as most people lick their wounds from the Christmas season. On the other hand, it's possible retirement may have alerted a lot of people that wanted the set and never bought it. Those may be grabbing them now somewhat slowly simulating the panic buying we normally see with a set's retirement. Lots of questions...
Worst Case Scenario
If you have  a lot of these (I am in the middle at 10 - I sold 6 during Christmas as I restocked from TRU) you may want to cry after this. Feel free to skip on to to the next section to keep your day going great! The Vampyre Castle seems to be a TRU exclusive now. For lack of Halloween sets, TRU (At least in the US) decides to keep it for several years seeing that the LegoShop is now out of it and it alone is the retailer carrying the set. Boosting TRU, people cannot find the set anywhere else and start paying $129.99 at TRU keeping the set there for the long haul as one of it's best sellers. Eventually the set finally does retire without any fanfair or panic at all 2-3 years after expected. The price takes a slight jump as people realize it's gone, but stalls quickly as the demand and love for the set has started to die out as people forget about it and the theme. The price stays right around $120 as investors finally decide to cut their loses and dump all of their sets to just try and get the money they paid out of them. The fear of God is put into every investor that ever sees TRU restock a set near retirement remembering this as a huge hit against Lego investing everywhere.
Best Case Scenario
Obviously this one is going to be much more preferred by most of us here: Though TRU restocked the set in late November, it exhausted all stock in doing so. They have one more big sale, marking it down to $80 again and we all grab 2-3 more just for good measure. Suddenly, with the swiftness of the Wolverine Chopper, the set is gone. Panic ensues immediately as investors and collectors realize the set just disappeared.  The set jumps to $150 in a mere few weeks on Ebay and approaches $200 by the end of the year, allowing all of us to double our money within just a short period of time.
What's Realistic?
I for one believe that, while this became a TRU exclusive, its still about to be gone. First off, a few of these sets, the Scientist 9465 and the Mummy 9462 have both already retired. This one is obviously next as it has somehow been discounted to $25 on the Lego website though already being out of stock. It has officially retired in a few other regions as well.
ToysRUs may keep it on for a while as their exclusive, but the set is still selling at a pretty good pace. None of the 3 TRU's around me have restocked as it has started to dwindle. They aren't moving particularly fast at $130, but I think they will still be sold out soon enough. All of these other sets in this line are listed as TRU exclusives as well, and none of them have been restocked in a long time at all the TRU's I have been to lately. The Vampyre Castle is the only one at the majority of them that is left.
Even if it does, the last several months of data on Ebay has proved that people love this set. I think the fact that Lego has not indicated doing more Monster Fighters almost helps this one's cause. It will not be redone and is still the only "haunted castle" we really have in the line. The Haunted House sticking around bodes well for this set as well - people can not forget about the theme if the best set of it is still in stores (and a display in a lot of them as well).
Though I would agree Toys R Us has put a slight dent in this sets investment value, the lack of other competing sets on the current market, or even the secondary market, this set is still a winner. You are taking a chance it will be around for another year, but I just can't see it continuing past that. So far it hasn't put too much of a dent in the sets value, and especially if you got these for $80 or less, you aren't taking a huge gamble as I don't think there is anyway that this set doesn't hit $130 or $140 the moment it finally is gone.
My recommendation is to hold tight. I don't recommend buying the set at retail or over (if you see it for $80, jump!), but I think the ones you have should stay with you. The set is still a big winner in my eyes and I don't think this completely changes that. As we are currently seeing with the Fire Brigade, even with the most crazy stocked set there is, we are still in the midst of a time where Lego is so popular that the panic buying of a set that seems to be flooding the market can still make a good buck.
Just be patient and believe. Box them up and don't look at them. You will feel better about just getting your money out of them in the long run than if you sell now, and watch it soar into the sky shortly after.
Next up in my list of sets I am looking to horde this year, I am  going to go through the Ninjago line and pick out the best sets. In reality, this shouldn't be extremely hard since the theme itself has over 40% lifetime CAGR. Almost every set from the first line of these has been a winner - really almost every set that has retired has been a winner. However, I am going to try to narrow down the obvious winners and, for myself, see if I can hone in on the obvious winners. I will mention this a couple of time, but you have to remember with these sets: They are most likely NOT going to see the growth the first line did - doubling within a very short period of time. However, they are going to still do well and should definitely be a great addition to your investment portfolio.
9450 Epic Dragon Battle
Level: High What is there not to like about this set? There is a giant 4-headed dragon (usually we talk about 3-headed dragons in stories so here we get one for free), a giant snake, a shrine, and 7 absolutely superb minifigures. There are not a ton of sets with the playability and overall presentation this set brings. The minifigures themselves are great - a few ninjas, Acidicus and Skalidor who are giant snake-like creatures, the Garmatron with somewhere near a billion weapons in his hands, Sensei Wu, and Chokun with a golden mace. I love that they are all different colors as well - just really makes the set stand out with the big white dragon, brown shrine, and green snake (devourer). I have been a little bullish in the past on this set because of a couple of reasons, however. If you have paid attention to the BP price, this set had gotten down around $70 before Christmas. I didn't understand how such a popular set was seeing this. In reality, it is the giant retailers fault: for some reason a bunch of them have chosen this set to basically firesale with TRU leading the storm with that killer $59 deal. However, during Christmas this set sold out and almost got back up to retail, which really renewed my thoughts on it. I actually also had a big scare - I parted out a few of mine thinking it was going to be around for another year and I could get good deals. Then it just disappeared everywhere and I was just hoping it wouldn't retire with my stock depleted. Will we have the same deals next year? I don't know - but don't get left out in the cold without any of these. Target Price: <80$ Target Sale Price: $225
9449 Ultra-Sonic Raider
Level: medium Another super set, but one that has been around a long while and has not shown sines of retiring yet. At the same time, this set has got some serious stuff to offer so I still think it will be a nice investment winner. First off, like a lot of Ninjago sets, the minifigures are just brilliant. This ones worst figure is Spitta, which is a lizard-like figure that comes with a mace. The rest are incredible: all 4 ninjas with more weapons than you can ever imagine and Pythor, which sells for near 20$ on Ebay still. Then the raider itself has weapons all over it that come off. The raider moves and transforms around as well as having the cool tracked wheels. There just is not anything this set doesn't have and I cannot imagine children wont want this for years to come. The downside again is the length of time this set has been out. And with this not being tied to a license, Lego can keep it around forever. However, with tons of Ninjago sets coming out in January and more later this year, I think it will be the next one to go for sure. Do not go crazy on the set, but make sure your portfolio has a small stash. Target Price: $55 Target Sale Price: $120
70505 Golden Dragon
Level: Medium I think it has been obvious in the Ninjago line that Dragons dominate and I do not think this one is going to be am exception. So why do I have it as "Medium"? Well, for one, its probably here for more than just one more year. Normally I would not even target a set unless I think its gone in a year or so. However, I want to build a stash of these because there is pretty much no chance this set is not a winner. 3 Figures is about standard for a 30$ set, but with the added incredible Golden Dragon and the fact that Lloyd matches in his golden attire really puts this set over the top for me. The Dragon itself is really big as well. One of my buddies is in the Dragon/Ninja type stuff and has a lot of it in his office at work. He came over one day while I was working on my Lego inventory for Ebay. He saw the Golden Dragon and had to have it (with no figures). When I told him $15 he couldn't believe it. The set just looks like it should be more expensive after you build it! As great as this set is, do not expect the 40 and 50% CAGR some of the first dragon lines got. Ninjago was way under the radar there so this is not going to come to those heights being hoarded by people like me. However, it should see excellent gains for a mid-level set and will not disappoint. Target Price: $22.50 Target Sale Price: $75.00
70505 Temple of Light
Level: Medium When I first saw this set I was not completely overwhelmed - definitely not like when I saw the Epic Dragon battle. However, after seeing this set a couple of times built, it really has a lot to offer. The set has good minifigures- not as good as the others mentioned here, but good enough - a giant gold Mech and the temple itself which is well built and comes with a ton of weapons as it should. The mech really is the best part of the set display-wise and it really  draws people to it until they notice how cool the temple is. Unfortunately the temple by itself just does not really stand out. Normally, this would be a "low" for me, but I do recognize how much children I have talked to seem to like this set. Also, the last temple set from the Ninjago line is one we would all love to have another shot at (The Fire Temple 2507). I do not think, and really guarantee, that this one will do as well, but I have been able to snag a few of these at really good discounts and I think that this set will at least allow you to double your money with ease. Target Price: 50$ Target Sale Price: $120  
It's well known by now, but I started a Lego business a while back in August and have been, like most of you, working to make it the best that it can be. I work in an industry where efficiency is not only the key, but it is expected to grow and thrive with every new iteration of a product or service. Without progress we have nothing, right? Well, I bring this same mindset to my business everyday. Anytime I do something, no matter if I have done it 100 times, I say "how could I have done this better?" and "How could I have spent less time?" or "How could I do this for less?". While I don't want to skimp or do things the wrong way, keeping these questions in mind are the only way to stay afloat in the economic world. Everything is about adaptation: If you aren't ahead, you are behind.
So looking into that, I wanted to write a blog to do a couple of things. First, I want to give you some of my favorite money saving tips, and then encourage people to post in the comments some of the ways they save money when they buy and work for their business. To make this not 100 pages long, I am really looking at buying materials and merchandise, not necessarily efficiency from a time or bookkeeping standpoint. Here we go!
Reuse Packaging from your Prior Lego Purchases
When I see people throw away a good box, it hurts me inside! Boxes are very simple, but some of the most amazing materials you could ever use. Why? It folds up flat!!! I understand sometimes you get a Lego set in and you are so excited to open it, you just toss the box it came in inside the trash can. Believe me, I am seriously lazy too. Instead, cut the seals and flatten that box - you can store it somewhere really easy and re-use it. A lot of people have posted on the forum about where to buy boxes. Unless you are buying in B&M stores or need a special box size, you should never have to buy boxes. I have not bought boxes for a normal Lego set since I started this.
Some people do have storage issues and that is understandable. One smart thing to do is keep all of your investment sets inside storage boxes. It definitely takes up time, but they are ready to ship later on and you can stack them much easier without hurting the set inside at that point.
As far as packing materials, if you can, keep these as well. I keep as much packing material from each set I buy as I can. As a business, things are up and down and any time you run out of packing material and have to go buy it, you are losing money. I normally will put packing material that doesn't take up a lot of space, like brown paper, into big bags and flatten it out as much as possible and save it. For all my normal shipments, I will use the big stuff like shipping bubbles in my normal packages. When a fast period hits and I run out, I have an accessible stash of materials I can pull out so I never have to buy any.
There are a lot of other things that work well as packing material also. When I go to the grocery, I save all my plastic bags. If I open something in the mail with brown paper, or plastic bags around it, I dump it in my packing pile (after removing labels). The people you are sending these sets to don't care what you protect it with - it just needs to get there intact. Get creative with anything that comes to you - if you buy packing material, you are just wasting money!
Buy in bulk
When you first get started with a Lego business, or any business really, its hard to think about the future when you buy supplies. Most of us are on a limited budget and we look at rolls of tape and say "I am sending 3 packages day, why should I buy 100 rolls to save 50 cents a roll"? Everyone has to make their own decisions, but if you trust your business will grow, take the plunge on buying in bulk - especially in the first year.
First off, as you do use them, you will appreciate the money you are saving off those rolls of tape (100 rolls x 50 cents = 50$!). When I first started, I was buying padded envelopes at about 25 cents a piece in 100 counts. After a while, I realized if I bought 1000, I could get them 8 cents each! That makes a big difference to your bottom line, especially if you do that with everything: bubble mailers, tape, paper to print labels, etc.
Another big reason to do this early: taxes. As I saw my business growing and my amount of materials needed growing, I went ahead and took the plunge on a lot of materials early. Since I need this and capital to allow my business to keep growing, I now can worry about my product and not worry about materials for a while and I can write all of this off my taxes my first year, meaning I get to keep more of my earned profits. Next year my tax bill will be bigger, but in theory I will have increased profit enough to counteract it.
Obviously you have to make your own decisions about where you want your business to grow, but don't hesitate to buy something in bulk just because it is a lot of money. I never thought I would spend 80 bucks on bubble mailers, but I am so glad I did.
Buy Supplies on Ebay
I see a lot of people buy supplies on Amazon quite a bit with two day Prime shipping. While i love Amazon, I think Ebay is the best place to get supplies for a couple of reasons. Ebay bucks and auctions.
Ebay bucks is a program Ebay has that gives you 2% back on every ebay purchase you make. They add up until the end of each quarter when Ebay basically gives you a gift card for the amount of money you have in Ebay bucks to spend on the website. Now most people are going to say "I get 3% on my Amazon card!". When you go to pay for your Ebay purchases, assuming you don't have a balance, you can select to pay from one of your credit cards rather than your bank account, reaping the rewards they provide also. Most credit cards provide between 1-2% on everyday purchases so this stacks. If you have a paypal mastercard, paypal gives you 2% cash back meaning you will be earning 4% for those Ebay purchases.
Combined with this, I check out auctions for packing materials constantly. A lot of the vendors on Ebay will put their packing materials on 99 cent auctions (not sure why) with free shipping. If you watch these, you can sometimes score great deals on the big bulk lots. Smaller lots seem to go for the same or more than the Buy It Now prices, but larger bulk auctions usually have less people watching them meaning a better chance you will score. Though it requires a bit more effort, you only have to do it a few times a year if you are buying in big bulk.
A side effect of using Ebay for this stuff:  I am on it more and more. I notice deals while going to watch my packaging materials and end up scoring Lego sets too. Win-win!
Cardpool.com
This is a really awesome website that allows users to sell their giftcards to cardpool for a percentage of the value on the card. Cardpool then sells the giftcards at a preset discount based on the vendor to people like us who want them. My favorite vendor at this site is Toys R Us. You can buy online giftcards for 4% off. If I am about to spend $100 at Toys R Us, I buy a giftcard for $100 at Cardpool for $96 using a credit card that gives me 1% cash back. I then buy the 100$ worth of stuff on TRU's website using the giftcard, and getting 2% in rewards from Toys R Us.
The website does not have Amazon or Ebay, but does have Target (although Redcard makes more sense), Barnes and Noble, and Walmart as well as many other retailers.
This leads me to the last one
Plan your purchases around Credit Card rewards:
I already wrote a blog about making money off of rewards programs from credit cards and membership cards.
Expanding on this, Credit Cards are getting more and more aggressive about giving their customers rewards. I have 13 credit cards (how that affects credit is a discussion for another time - please don't just go get 13 credit cards) which I know by heart what percentage I get where with them. For example, for online Walmart purchases, Discover gives me 5%. Discover and Chase give 1% cash back on everything - Citi is 1.5%, etc. Using this info, as I am about to make a purchase, I immediately know which card to use in every situation.
Most credit cards do quarterly and monthly promotions; Make sure you sign up for these and the emailing lists to be notified about them and take the time to know them inside and out. You can get a serious amount of money back each month (My Amazon card was $125.50 this month!!!).
Use Brickpicker.com Affiliate Links
What's an affiliate link? Well, over in the Daily Deals Forum (you must be a BP member) we post deals all day we find online. These links are embedded with a special tag that tells the online retailers that Brickpicker directed the purchaser to the site to buy something. When you make a purchase through this, the retailer gives Brickpicker a percentage kickback for the referral. This is extremely important to Brickpicker as it is free and this money goes to keep this site running and updated with new features.
How does this save you money?
Without Brickpicker, I and probably 90% of the people on here would be investing in Construct-a-Zurgs and Prince of Persia and wouldn't have made much money at all, found many good Lego deals, or learned as much about Lego as we do everyday here. This is by far the best way we can give back to Brickpicker and save ourselves money in the future by helping Brickpicker be the best it can be so it can continue benefiting us the most possible.
Anyone got any other good money saving tips?
Look at her, isn’t she a marvel!

I stumbled upon this set looking back over a few of the older sets in the City theme.  It caught my eye as something I would have loved to have played with when I was a kid, so much play opportunity for a young lad.  Then after looking at sets info page here on Brickpicker the CAGR and secondary market pricing history captured my attention.
The first thing is that the set boasts a very impressive CAGR of 22.6%, that puts it ahead of all but one of the entire Star Wars UCS sets!
Then if you look at the pricing graphs you see this: Flat or even dipping value for the last year at least on the pricing graph, on a set still maintaining 26.5% CAGR – interesting!  I guess the volumes are a little low with only 9 sold over the year but that should still be enough to gauge any price movements if present.
To examine this further we can look down to the Performance Over Time table:

That to me presents a very interesting view of this sets performance.  In the last two years the price for the set has actually dropped slightly by 11%.  This means it was priced at $143.44 in Nov-2011.  That would mean the set had a CAGR at that point of 41.83%!  Furthermore if we take the assumption that the set had a retail shelf life of 2 years as is the generally accepted average we can start the CAGR calculation baseline at 2008 rather than 2006.  This would mean in the 3 years from 2008 to 2011 the set had a CAGR of a phenomenal 79.05% and a full ROI of 474%, and that’s before even considering a cheaper purchase price via discounts that no doubt would have been on offer at the time!
We can look at the changes in prices more visually in the graph below:

Keep in mind that the time scale is not linear as you approach recent periods.
“So what” you may asked, “how is this relevant to investing decisions I make today?”  Well aside from being just an incredible piece of data and information to admire in its own right, there is perhaps a phenomenon at work here that this may be a prime example of.
After writing several set reviews and a few blogs in the past year I’ve noticed many sets seem to plateau in secondary market price at around 4-5 times their original retail price.  This set hit 5.7 and has dropped back to 5.1.  To me this makes intuitive sense.  The collector or consumer buying the set on the secondary market has a hard time justifying paying 5 times the retail of an older set they missed out on.  Once you start to get into that price territory the set competes against other demands for the buyers money such as newer retail Lego sets, other EOL sets that haven’t appreciated as much, used sets,  the ability to ‘Bricklink’ the parts, and many other things people want/need to spend their cash on.
It takes a special set with very high demand comparative to supply in order to push past that barrier.  The average to good sets all seem to hit a peak and flatline or fall away.  Sure some experience a second wind growth spurt but most do not.
This sort of info may help provide a piece of the information puzzle when deciding how long to hold onto investments I your portfolio.  Unless you are convinced of a coming second surge of growth you may be best advised to divest any sets that show signs of flattening growth once the reach around 4 times their retail price.  
Guest
Six months after the release of the original Galaxy Squad sets (see my article on that wave here), Lego released another four sets. My previous article was a bit (read: massively) over-optimistic looking back, as the sets haven't done well, so this article will explore if wave 2 will be plagued by the same investing mediocrity. I'll also evaluate the two promotion polybags of the theme, 30230 and 30231. Is the line doomed for alien subordination and minimal investment returns? Read on, astronauts.
  70706 Crater Creeper

Lego.com description:
Stop the Crater Creeper with green team leader Chuck Stonebreaker!
Take Galaxy Squad green team leader Chuck Stonebreaker on a mission to exterminate the alien’s Crater Creeper! Jump into the hero hovercraft and chase after the bug-eyed buggoid in the Crater Creeper with insect legs, chomping jaws and flick missiles. Fire the hovercraft’s flick missiles, bring the Crater Creeper crashing to a halt and win the battle with the Galaxy Squad! Includes 2 minifigures with weapons: green team leader Chuck Stonebreaker and an alien buggoid.
Includes 2 minifigures with weapons: green team leader Chuck Stonebreaker and an alien buggoid Features Crater Creeper and a hero hovercraft• Crater Creeper features insect legs, chomping jaws and flick missiles Hovercraft features flick missiles Weapons include 2 blasters and a sonic gun Don’t get caught in the chomping jaws! Fire the missiles! Measures over 3" (8cm) high, 9" (24cm) long and 7" (20cm) wide Hero hovercraft measures over 1" (3cm) high, 1" (5cm) long and 1" (5cm) wide Eightbrick's Analysis: At $20, this is the closest thing to an impulse set the second wave gets. The green pod is pretty insignificant, but the crawler looks very smooth and organic while still having some technological elements. Unfortunately what it has in looks it can't match in functionality: only 2 of the legs move (the middle ones). The elasticized pincers do a bit to correct this but I found it strange that the posability is restricted, especially since Lego has demonstrated many times recently that it has mastered the art (eg. with Shelob).
Currently the set has a -5.9% CAGR, a sorry sight, yes, but a flesh wound compared to the CAGRs of the two largest sets of the theme. It is a great throwback to the insectoid line of the 90s and is excellently executed. Call it personal bias or an amateur guess, but I'll peg it's 5-year CAGR prediction at 9%, a good comeback from it's current rate. 10% CAGR will result in it being valued at $30.75 in 2018.
70707 CLS-89 Eradicator Mech


Lego.com description:
Exterminate the alien abductoids with the CLS-89 Eradicator Mech!
Get back into battle with the bugs with the split-function CLS-89 Eradicator Mech with rapid-fire missiles! Help orange team leader Jack Fireblade and his robot sidekick raise the mech’s powerful arms, load the rapid-fire flick missiles and aim the laser cannon to stop the alien abductoids! When the battle heats up, activate the Eradicator Mech’s split function, lower the wings and take flight in the super-agile galaxy jet with hidden bay door and deployable bomb. Stop the bugs from trapping the Galaxy Squad in cocoon prisons! Includes 2 minifigures with weapons: orange team leader Jack Fireblade and his robot sidekick.
 Includes 2 minifigures with weapons: orange team leader Jack Fireblade and his robot sidekick  Features poseable limbs, rapid-fire flick missiles and a laser cannon  Splits into a mech exosuit and a galaxy jet  Other vehicles include a flying alien abductoid and a crawling alien abductoid  Galaxy jet features lowering wings, opening cockpit with space for a minifigure and a hidden bay door with deployable bomb  Poseable alien abductoids feature cocoons with space for a minifigure  Weapons include 2 blasters and a sonic cannon  Activate the split function to fight back with 2 fierce fighting machines!  Launch the rapid-fire flick missiles and spin up the laser cannon!  Don’t get trapped in the alien cocoons!  Measures over 8" (22cm) high, 6" (16cm) long and 5" (15cm) wide  Mech exosuit measures over 7" (19cm) high, 4" (11cm) long and 5" (15cm) wide  Galaxy jet measures over 1" (5cm) high, 4" (11cm) long and 5" (15cm) wide  Flying alien abductoid measures over 1" (5cm) high, 4" (11cm) long and 3" (10cm) wide  Crawling alien abductoid measures over 1" (3cm) high, 4" (12cm) long and 3" (10cm) wide Eightbrick's Analysis: A somewhat unbalanced (if not chubby) mech for the orange team makes up set 70707. Like the rest of the line, it's a bit thin on the minifigs, at a conservative 2 (both are goodies). Their foes are two brick-built "abductoids"; one winged, the other grounded. It's an interesting idea, having non-minifigure villains, not exactly a groundbreaking concept (having been tried in several action themes before), but it did lead to high success in the Vikings line (15% average CAGR nearly a decade later). The head of the mech splits off into a jet, in a somewhat predictable play feature. Overall, it's a nice set, arguably a lot better than the previous orange team set, 70705 Bug Obliterator. Possibly one of the better bets from this line - but that isn't saying much.
Fun fact: as of my writing this article, this is the only wave 2 (non polybag) set with a positive CAGR, an impressive 1.63%. Okay, so not anything worth getting excited over, but for a struggling wave that is easily accessible at pretty much all retail locations that sell Lego, I'll take any 1% above retail over nothing. Given that, and that the set was well done, I'll award it a 9% 5-year CAGR prediction again (resulting in a value of $61.52 in 2018). High clearance frequency, especially in an unstable theme like Galaxy Squad, could do significant damage to that number though. There are some interesting parts (the trans yellow bulbs on the back of the insects are exclusive), so if not for the scarce (and mediocre value-wise) minifigures it might have been a viable part out option.

70708 Hive Crawler


Lego.com description:
Stop the Hive Crawler from laying eggs and save the galaxy!
The alien mantizoid is on a mission across the galaxy in the creepy Hive Crawler with moving legs. Stop it from laying insectoid eggs and spreading the alien threat! Deploy Galaxy Squad red team leader Billy Starbeam and his robot sidekick in the split-function hero speedster! Dodge the double-rotating venom guns, razor-sharp legs and pinching mouth! Then launch a deadly double attack by splitting the hero speedster into a sky speeder for air assaults and a planet speeder for ground combat. Don’t let the insectoid eggs hatch! Includes 2 insectoids and 3 minifigures with weapons and accessories: red team leader Billy Starbeam, robot sidekick and an alien mantizoid.
 Includes 2 insectoids and 3 minifigures with weapons: red team leader Billy Starbeam, robot sidekick with jetpack and an alien mantizoid  Features an egg launcher, 2 hatching eggs containing 1 flying and 1 crawling insectoid, razor-sharp moving legs, rotating laser guns, a pinching mouth and an opening cockpit with space for a minifigure  Hero speedster features detachable blasters and splits into a cool sky speeder and a planet speeder  Weapons include 2 blasters and 4 blades  Stop the Hive Crawler from launching the eggs and hatching the creepy insectoids!  Activate the split function for double the fighting power!  Push the Hive Crawler and make the legs move!  Measures over 5" (14cm) high, 13" (34cm) long and 11" (30cm) wide  Hero speedster measures over 1" (4cm) high, 6" (16cm) long and 3" (8cm) wide  Sky speeder measures over 1" (3cm) high, 0.5" (2cm) long and 2" (7cm) wide  Planet speeder measures over 1" (4cm) high, 5" (14cm) long and 1" (5cm) wide Eightbrick's Analysis: Here we have 70708 Hive Crawler. Again, poor Billy of the reds ends up with only a tiny speeder to work with in his fight against his enemies. That enemy being a impressive queen-insect type vehicle with a massive bulb-shaped abdomen. The set was on display at my Lego store one time I went in for demonstration and it seemed quite a few kids (and parents) were impressed by the legs that move as it is rolled along, turrets, and catapult that can sling pink eggs with larvae inside (seems like a pretty dumb battle tactic, hurling your undeveloped children at your foes - I guess that's where the naughty ones go). The designer of the set did a top notch job creating a fun play set while still keeping with the spirit of the theme.
The set is suffering a -30% CAGR right now, and it doesn't look like it has a bright future. It has some rarer figures (albeit not many), but isn't a very good value for money at MSRP. It is only out of respect for the designer's genius in maximizing the play features that I give it a 4% CAGR prediction. It's a kick-butt set, but definitely steer clear at retail.

 70709 Galactic Titan


Lego.com description:
Defeat the alien caterpillar and hive tower in the final battle!
Send in blue team leader Solomon Blaze to exterminate the creepy alien caterpillar and hive tower! Only the split-function Galactic Titan can stop the alien army from hatching more eggs. Rescue blue team pilot Max Solarflare from his cocoon prison! Move the Galactic Titan into position with its rubber quad tracks, rotate the double shooter into position and fire at the creepy caterpillar! First, disable its moving joints and dangerous pinching jaws! Then initiate the Galactic Titan’s split function to deploy the deep space destroyer with removable cockpit, rotating wings and flick missiles. Use it to destroy the hive tower’s insectoid egg shooter and cocoon prison. Defeat the alien bugs once and for all in this fierce final battle! Includes a flying insectoid and 5 minifigures with weapons: blue team leader Solomon Blaze, robot sidekick, Max Solarflare, an alien mosquitoid and a mantizoid.
 Includes a flying insectoid and 5 minifigures with weapons: blue team leader Solomon Blaze, robot sidekick, Max Solarflare, an alien mosquitoid and a mantizoid  Features opening cockpit with control panels, quad rubber tracks, fully rotating double shooter, small radar, weapons rack and space for a cocoon  Splits into a planetary defender and a deep space destroyer  Planetary defender features double rotating shooters and radar  Deep space destroyer features removable, detailed cockpit, rotating wings and wing-mounted flick missiles  Alien caterpillar features moving body sections, pinching jaws function with space for an insectoid egg, and space for a cocoon and minifigure on its back  Hive tower features insectoid egg-shooter function with egg, cocoon prison and a weapon rack with 2 alien sonic guns  Activate the split function for double the fighting power!  Open the egg to hatch the insectoid!  Rescue blue team pilot Max Solarflare from the cocoon prison!  Take aim and fire the powerful double shooters!  Measures over 5" (14cm) high, 12" (32cm) long and 6" (17cm) wide  Planetary defender measures over 5" (14cm) high, 11" (29cm) long and 6" (17cm) wide  Deep space destroyer measures over 4" (11cm) high, 9" (24cm) long and 8" (22cm) wide  Alien caterpillar measures over 1" (3cm) high, 10" (26cm) long and 2" (7cm) wide  Hive tower measures over 3" (8cm) high, 5" (15cm) wide and 4" (12cm) deep Eightbrick's Analysis: The largest set of the line and the theme, 70709 gives space fans the proper flagship that they missed out on last line. Not only does it deliver a large double-cannoned tank-shuttle for the good guys, but it gives the baddies a hive outpost to hang in. The alien caterpillar is a minor let down when other sets have much more interesting bugs. It does contain one of the newer aliens and is ripe with play features but the blue vehicle is pretty eyesore (plus it seems like the blue guys are over-represented in the theme). A flagship, yes, but not the grand hurrah we were looking for as the theme comes to a close.
Honestly I'm at a loss regarding a value prediction for this set. On one hand, it is the largest set of the theme, which should theoretically put it as #1 on the wishlist of Galaxy Squad fans, but then again stumbling space themes aren't healthy pastures for large sets; take recent failures such as 7066 Earth Defense HQ or 5974 Galactic Enforcer for examples. Currently it's sitting at a CAGR of -31%. It feels a bit messy and is slightly disappointing, so the classic spaceship coming out in the Lego Movie theme will likely steal a lot of the set's thunder. All things considered, I'll give this guy a boring 0% 5-year prediction. It will surely fluctuate over the years, but I don't expect it to journey far from MSRP in it's interstellar travels.
30230 Mini Mech


No Lego.com description (promotional item).
Eightbrick's Analysis:
This little guy was available at Target and Walmart for short periods in 2013, and was also a Lego.com reward for customers who purchased over a specific limit (in August or September, I believe). I actually like it better than its counterpart 30231, as a (extremely junior) polybag collector it seems a bit more imaginative and substantial than a guy and a bug. Conflict isn't necessary (and often missing) in small promo items, and I think the mech, with four moving legs and two lasers is quite nice. The fact that is less rare than 30231 has worked against it (it has a 24% CAGR compared to 30231's 59%), but I think it has room to healthily grow, and wouldn't be surprised to see it only drop to 15% CAGR over 5 years.
30231 Space Insectsoid


No Lego.com description (promotional item).
Eightbrick's Analysis:
The second Galaxy Squad promotional polybag, this one was only available from Toys R Us. The insectoid provides some conflict that action themes feed off, but it came out a bit bulky and strange. That said, the green team seems more popular than orange and the limited availability has propelled it to a CAGR of 59%. I'll cut that number in three to get a five year CAGR estimate of 20%. If you could get it with a TRU deal such as BOGO50%, it's not a half bad investment - if you don't mind working with small sets.

 

It's hard to exactly pinpoint what went wrong with this theme. I think inter-competition with other themes was a big chunk of it, not only with Star Wars but with all fantasy/action themes including Ninjago, Chima, pretty soon the Lego Movie, etc. For those wondering, yes this is the final line as no new sets have been reported, it was advertised as the "final battle", and the line hasn't been selling well. I think they gave it a good effort (considerably more than Alien Conquest), but perhaps today's market just doesn't have room for a home-grown space theme. I wouldn't touch anything from the theme with a ten foot pole at retail (except maybe the polybags), and would advise you all to do the same. Catastrophe? Not exactly. It's not worthy of the drama that accompanies a disaster. It's more of a quiet, uneventful, failure.
Thanks for reading.
Looking back at the individual series that Lego has done that now make up the Lego Super Heroes Collection (Batman, Spiderman, etc.) we see some of the most successful Lego sets of all time. Though not too many of the current ones have retired, the ones that did have not disappointed in the least so far. Captain America's Avenging Cycle has been one of the shortest investments to doubling or tripling your money that many of us have ever seen. The Hulk Helicarrier - really a weak set besides the hulk, almost doubled during Christmas after retiring just shortly before. The Cat-Cycle Chase has done great as well - although it somehow came back into stock (which was a blessing for me as I bought about 25 and now its gone again).
So we know Super Heroes is a super theme - what sets should be focused on this year? Well, the easy answer is all of them. There are so many sets and it seems as if every one will be a winner - even the lowly Loki's Cosmic Cube has done well despite something even close to an exclusive figure or piece. But I am definitely not going to just blindly buy, so without further  rambling, here are the sets I am targeting for next year:
76000 Arctic Batman

Target Level: Medium
How often do we get a 20$ set, with 3 exclusive minifigures, that are highly likely to stay exclusive? Not very often. That really vaults the investment value of this set way up, almost regardless of what licensed theme it was in and it should really be a no-brainer for any Lego investor. All three minifigures are pretty well done, and the Bat Boat is excellent, and really matches the rest of the Batman vehicles in the theme (the Batwing and BatMobile). The Arctic Batman is really the best out of all of them as well as it completely contrasts every other Batman Minifigure. I have to think Batman fans will be all over this. So what is not to like? Well, for one Aquaman. Yes he is exclusive, but does anyone really like Aquaman that much? I think he is well done, but I almost wonder if this set would be just as popular without him. In a way he almost doesn't really fit in the set a ton anyway. But, again, I don't think we can argue with another exclusive figure. I also question how much non-mega--Batman fans will really care about an Arctic Batman. I don't think the last Mr. Freeze movie did all that great and I am not sure many younger people will really be wowed by this set with no real tie in they know about. Never-the-less, at 20$ this shouldn't be much of a risk either way.
Target Price: $15
Target Sale price: $40
76004 Spider-Cycle Chase

Target Level: High
A super 20$ set, as Lego has seemed to given us a lot of in the Super Heroes theme. At the moment, two of the three figures are exclusive - although they could be back in another set later on - and the set itself is built really well. Venom really makes this set as the most desired figure, but the spider cycle and Fury's Car are nice little vehicles, and we all know how well vehicles go. This set is not going to be the best one of the Spiderman Theme I think, and probably not the best of the Super Heroes 20$ sets. So why do you want a lot of them?
Well, the biggest reason for me is Venom. The set itself will be a winner, and a solid one either way. But, if Venom is not reproduced in another set, this could become one of those legendary sets that just grows at an insane rate based on one great figure. Everyone will want Venom that loves Spiderman, and with more movies most likely on the horizon, this will definitely boost the set. So its worth the risk to grab 20-30 of this set if I can and make sure I have a ton just in case Venom never shows himself again. I would suggest you do the same - especially if you can find this set for 15$ or so. This set will also have major flip potential during the Christmas season as well, so win-win there.
Target Price: $17.50
Target Sale Price: $45.00
76005 Spiderman Daily bugle Showdown

Target Level: High
This set is the gem of the Spiderman Sets, a set that I think is even better than the Dr. Ock set. If you like Exclusive Super Heroes figures, this is the set for you. Yes, you have the same old Spiderman, but then you get 4 exclusives: Nova, Dr. Doom, Beatle, and J. Jonah Jameson. I love all 4 of the figures too. All of them are extremely well done, and the color contrast in all of them really makes the set stand out. Chances are, most if not all of these figures will stay exclusives to this set so I see it as a pretty safe bet. The building itself is also done really well and the set sells really well without minifigures for me which I feel is always a testament to how well a set is done non-minifigure wise. All of the minifigures are worth at least 10$ each on Ebay; if you can make back the retail price for a set just off the figures, you know that set is a big time winner.
Really the only tough thing about the set is it has not been on sale a ton and has been out of stock a lot as well. This means it has been a little hard for me to pick up at decent prices, but this also is a testament to its popularity. This set will be a huge gainer and you will kick yourself if it retires without you picking up some of them.
Target Price: $35
Target Sale Price: $150
76006 Iron Man Extremis Boat

Target Level: High
This set is a hard one to figure out. It is a so-so set in some aspects, and just excellent in others. I don't love the boat, but it is built really well. The Aldrich Killian minifigure is, in my opinion, dull and the Ebay Sold listings prove that. However, the Iron Man Mark 46 figure and the War Machine figure (another exclusive) are tremendous. So in some ways, it is hard to really peg exactly what this set will do.
However, I love this set for the same reason as the Cycle Chase: The exclusive minifigures - and really just War Machine. This minifigure is awesome and could easily be the only one. With as well as the Iron Patriot minfigure has done, I think this one will follow right in its footsteps. I have parted a few of these out and have had no issue getting $12 (from a 20$ set!!!) for that one figure. This figure will carry this set big time, and as dull as the Killian figure is, people will want him to complete the movie scene in their minds. This set will double extremely quickly right after its gone in my mind, and will end up being a pretty solid gainer - maybe the best of the Ironman line depending on what other sets are made - and if there are anymore movies (and we all hope so).
Target Price: $17.50
Target Sale Price: $55
6862 Power Lex

Target Level: Medium
Though I do like this set, I am not near as high on it as a ton of other people. I really struggle to believe in the Superman Sets. For one, they are really tough to part out and make any money because all the figures are in about every other set. There really aren't a bunch of different versions of Zod or Superman. Plus, I think the popularity of Superman has really fallen off in the past couple of years with the last several movies. A lot of people liked the last movie, which is really what these sets were based on, but I still do not see the popularity that the other Super Heroes themes have.
On top of that, a lot of the sets just don't look that great. However, this one is the exception. First, you have an awesome figure in Wonder Woman. She is exclusive and really there is a good chance she will stay that way. Then you have Lex, which is so-so, and the same superman as normal. The Power Armor is pretty nice, and a really cool and different way to display a minifigure. Because of the minifigures and the low price point, I am going to make sure I have a decent amount of this set. However, I am not going to go crazy on it. I am not fully convinced it will be near as big a winner as the other 20$ sets in this series.
Target Price: $16.00
Target Sale Price: $45
6863, 6864, and 6860
I bet most of you were thinking - where are these sets? Well for one, I really think they will be gone mid-year. More importantly, I have already stashed a good deal of these and really will not be targeting them - more just grabbing them if a good deal comes up. I assume most the rest of us are in the same boat and because these are really only going to be available from places at retail or above, I doubt most of us are going to be buying a lot of them.
However, if you do not have any - go find them now. All three are huge winners and I don't want anyone here to miss out on three sets that may be the best gainers of the Super Heroes line.  
[box type="info" ]This blog follows on from my previous blogs (May, July, September, and October) presenting the top 20 sets in terms of secondary market price growth according to the data we have available here on Brickpicker.[/box] Again, here are some notes on the scope before I begin:
I have not restricted the qualifying sets by size or age or any other dimension Information is based on US prices only Not all sets across all themes are included as I have zero interest in Bionicle/Hero Factory for example so have only gathered data on a few of those sets.  (I just didn’t have the willpower to gather all the data for them really).  Most of the rest are covered though. I tried to look at as many sets as possible, but there is a chance a few may have been missed, if you spot some that should/could be included please let me know The Last Rank column indicates changes in ranking from the last Top 20 Blog (Oct data)   One Month Growth (change in Market Price from last month)

Almost a completely clean slate again, made up of entirely new entrants and that’s not really a surprise given volatility in prices when only looking at a change from 1 month to the next.  2175 Wyplash stays on the list jumping up 11 places to take top spot.  The recently retired Ninjago set is doing quite nicely.  76000 Arctic Batman also manages to cling to a position on the monthly list. It will be interesting to see if any of these sets can maintain some of this growth longer term.  Which leads us nicely onto our next time period:   Six Month Growth (change in Market Price from May 2013 )

3187 Butterfly Beauty Shop gets bumped from the top spot of the 6 month returns list tumbling 6 places thanks to a return of -14% in the last month as no doubt investors look to take profits. 6865 Captain America Cycle jumps to top spot with continued excellent price growth since its retirement mid 2013.  Will it continue that run? Lots of new entrants again, some with pretty low volumes, though others are there that really deserve their position.   2175 Wyplash comes in at number 3 thanks to taking that top spot for monthly growth in the section above.  5882, 70107, and 3939 all new entrants straight into the top 5 on the back of solid demand.  A couple of other wave 1 Friends sets, 4529 Iron Man, and 21001 John Hancock Center are also notable new entrants to the top 20 6 monthly growth list.   One Year Growth (change in MarketPrice from November 2012)

6808 Galaxy Trekkor still at the top but can be discounted due to extremely low volumes, though there are plenty of others that command respect. The well publicized 9465 Zombies regains a little ground after recent slips.  4529 Iron Man takes a big leap up 10 spots to number 3.  A few of the sets on the list look like they were 2012 releases that have now been around for a year and make the time criteria and have experienced that post EOL jump.  Plenty of other great sets on this list that you’d have done well to buy at market price one year ago.   Two Year Growth (change in Market Price from November 2011)

Now into the two year time frame we begin to remove some of the short term fluctuations that can occur with some of the narrower time periods.  21001 John Hancock Center gained another 15% in the month and that was good enough to push it back into top spot (was there in Sep as well).  Boy I’d love to turn the clock back 2 years and grab a few of those for a 266% ROI ! 7936 Level Crossing is also an interesting set.  It was number one on this list back in May & July.  It then hit a flat spot, dropping to number 19 in September and off the list in October, but it’s now back in at number 4 thanks to another spurt of growth.  Maybe people are expanding their train set layouts for Xmas?    Retail Growth (change in Market Price from Retail MSRP)

Now for the full measure of growth from the retail value of the set.  Obviously a set with a $0 listed retail price like all the promo giveaways etc are excluded as we can’t divide by zero, so that has weeded out a few of the small polybags or very very old sets for which we have no retail data.  But the list is still dominated by cheap sets that have increased by large multiples. The 1626 Angel takes top spot with a crazy 20,477% growth over retail thanks to 1 recent sale of $250 and another 2 years ago of $280 all from a set that cost $1.30 when released back in 1989. 246 Santa and Sleigh make a return for the festive season.  This old school set from 1977 had over 30 sales in the month at a value far higher than the original $1.99 MSRP (though we probably should adjust for 35 years of inflation!) Perhaps the first “real” contender is 10190 Market Street, such an impressive result for a set in just 6 years.  Much better than another set from the same year that people often point to as the pinnacle of Lego investing…   Conclusions These top 20 tables lists all the absolute best investment decisions you could have made if you had perfect future knowledge.  The amount of under the radar sets and “sleeper” hits have been a big wake up call for me.  We sometimes become a little circular in discussing the popular sets for investing (Modulars, UCS, etc) and lose sight of the fact that many of the best investments to be had right now are probably some of the least discussed sets.  It does mean there are plenty more topics ripe for discussion on the forums and in blogs. It will be interesting when the December data is released to see if set have maintained some of their ‘form’.  Plus the Xmas effect which is probably already present in some of the November data should come into full swing.  This can be both a positive and a negative for set values as FcB demonstrated in a couple of blog posts. I’ve only given a cursory analysis of the lists themselves and would like to leave it to you on how best to interpret the results.  The numbers should speak for themselves and I’d like to hear your take on them in the comments below.
The end of the year usually brings the retirement (or at least the stock exhaustion beforehand) of 100s of Lego sets. If you are lucky, you stocked up on these exact sets throughout the year at really low prices and are not struggling to grab them at retail in the final minutes before they are gone for good and before the price skyrockets on them (assuming they were winners).
With this, brings a brand new year, brand new Lego sets, and most importantly, brand new retirement targets: Sets that should be gone at the end of the year and need to be stocked up on. Here I want to offer up my picks for this next year as the ones I will be looking at. I do not want to act like all of mine are going to be right - so make sure you comment and offer up yours as well. This blog is going to cover the Star Wars sets I will be looking to make sure I have in my collection. Let's get it started!
Lego 75005 Rancor Pit

LEVEL: HIGH
Explanation: This set is awesome. I did a blog when I built it a while back, http://blog.brickpicker.com/the-mighty-rancor-monster-profits-or-will-the-metal-gate-drop-on-your-investment/, and my thoughts on the set honestly have only grown. While I do think it is somewhat pushed by having Jabba's Palace, and is not particularly impressive as a set on its own, it still has the one factor that really matters - The Rancor. This mega-figure is incredible and being exclusive, it will be sought after for a long time.
I have parted out a few of these sets (honestly the set is not a good part out set at all) and was able to get $28 for the Rancor by itself. I think it will continue to drive this set into investment and will most likely not be in another set - possibly ever. This figure should end up being a $50 figure or more after retirement, so I do not think there will be a problem with the rest of the set helping it to the $100 mark.
Another big part is the possible perceived success of Jabba's Palace 9516. This set did really well during Christmas and from the time is went OOS has risen up to above retail. With this set fresh on people's minds when the Rancor Pit retires, there will be a lot of people who want it. I think these two are also a good target for selling together. Normally selling sets together means you will get less, but on Ebay using Buy It Now, you can sometimes make it easier for people to bite if you are selling two things they want together. I think these two sets obviously fit together about as well as any others.
The only real knock on the pit is that the other figures just are not that great. The Gammorrean guard is not a bad figure, but doesn't have a weapon or anything which somewhat devalues him (he has one in 9516). Malakili has really been a do nothing figure, and luke with the bone I find pretty unimpressive.
However, the Rancor will take care of all that. Do not get caught without this set (and multiples at that).
Target Price: 35$-40$
Sale Target: $100
9515 The Malevolence

LEVEL: MILD
It is no secret that clone wars stuff does not really live up to original trilogy Star Wars stuff. Hopefully we wont be saying the same thing about the third trilogy as well. However, there have to be some winners some where in there and if you don't take chances, you wont ever hit it big on one of those surprise sleepers. To me, this is the best built set to do it on.
First off, the set has a really good array of figures. The General Grievous figure is excellent - much better than the original and sells for around 20$ on Ebay. Padme is another solid figure who sells pretty well at around 10$ (all of the Padme's and Amidala figures sell well). You also get a clone wars anakin, two droids and Dooku. The ship itself is really large and is really solidly built. With the amount of Star Wars refreshes, I think a unique and impressive large vehicle like this may make a splash. Along with the figures, this makes it a solid choice.
I am still somewhat bullish on Star Wars though so this is one I will be buying as cheap as possible and will not be afraid to pass. I feel like $120 may be a little much for this set, but for a long time it was not hard to find at 80$ and I feel it will go back that way. It was a popular set during Christmas which makes me feel good about its long term growth. It will not be a crazy gainer in my eyes, but has some definite potential with a minimal risk.
Target Price: 70$
Sale Target: $175
10225 Ultimate Collector Series R2-D2

Level: Low
Do not let my target level of "low" fool you - this set is a winner and I want a lot of them.
However, with the way things are at the moment, this one probably wont retire for a long time. However, you do not want to take a chance on not having some of a legendary set and in my eyes, this is one of those sets. The UCS sets have a history of doing well, and the Darth Maul bust was one of the best of them. R2-D2 is more iconic that Maul in my eyes. The set itself looks almost like its a robot as it is so solid and real looking. Its an instant classic as a display piece and it appeals to about every age group. R2-D2 is going to be in the new movies as well.
Another big part: no discounts on exclusives. We have seen in the later part of this year that Lego was serious about this. I think we will see a lot of investors stop fulling with exclusives as much and focus on smaller sets they can find for 30-40% off. R2-D2 is worth it at retail though, do not be fooled. I will most likely target him during a double VIP, if it happens, or if there is another really good exclusive polybag from Lego like the VW.
Eitherway, if you get caught without these and the set does go away, you are going to be really upset. So make sure you do not to hesitate picking these up .
Target Price: Retail w/ double points or exclusive
Sale Target: 500$
10221 Super Star Destroyer

LEVEL: MILD
Name a 3500+ piece set that did not do well. If there is one, I do not really care because it was not a freaking Super Star Destroyer. This thing is going to absolutely murder in the secondary market. The set itself is incredibly large, has a ton of really large pieces, as absolutely draws everyone to it when it is in a room. You can not have a better set around besides 10179 than this set.
A lot of us were hoping this set was done at the end of this year, and really it may still be on the way out. Either way, I think there is a decent chance it will be gone soon and want to make sure I have a good few of them. This is probably one of the few sets left out there that still has a shot at $1000 some day.
Just "mild" though? Well, you have to remember to consider ROI (return on Investment) here. If you drop $400 on a set, it better do really well. We would all like to get these at $300, but with the ban on exclusive discounts, it just is not happening. So I wont go crazy. I could spend that $400 on a lot of small sets that may gain a lot faster than the $400. Also this set weighs about 1 billion pounds which makes it hard to ship. Still, you can not pass up the chance to get that kind of money out of one set.
Watch out for combination deals this year. I think a lot more retailers will take up after TRU and start it. If you have a store somewhere, these are your best deals out there and can definitely help recover some of that massive capital.
Target Price: $350 after selling part of bundle, retail otherwise
Bonus Set: 7965 Millennium Falcon

TARGET: HIGH
The rumor is this will be out until 2015 with the new movies - and chances are that is right. So why am I targeting it?
First and foremost, I think the set is a winner and I want to make sure I do not get shut out. However, this Christmas, these sets were super sought after and rose up to about $170. During the year, it was not particularly hard to get these sets at sub-100 prices. Since it was coming back, I sold a bunch of these off and made good money during Christmas. I expect next Christmas could be even better as some could see the set as possibly gone and the panic buying will commence.
The set itself is huge and has a lot of play-set variety. While it is not incredibly different from prior falcons, the set  is iconic enough and a good mid level for the people who can not afford 10179. If it goes out of stock again next Christmas, I will be ready to bring on the flipping.
Target Price: $90
Sale Target: $175=$200
Let's hear it guys. Any Star Wars sets I missed that could retire at the end of the year and are winners?
A disclaimer before we start: I have thoroughly enjoyed the previews for The Lego Movie. I giggled at times and was generally pretty excited at the prospect of seeing it in theaters. I've also been checking out the sets from the movie and reading/watching reviews of the builds. Overall, I think they are kinda eccentric and zany, like my uncle Jim after a lot of 'eggnog' at Christmas, dancing to Santa Baby with my wife's scarf. Fun, fun, fun! Sadly, fun alone does not profits make; does fun and popcorn sold translate into worthwhile Lego investments?
Here are my cons:
1) Lack of set cohesion
I'm having trouble envisioning how many of these sets will seamlessly integrate into existing LEGO setups.  For most children, this probably isn't an issue, but for older builders with, say, a cityscape, I don't see a lot of easy integration.  I do understand that these sets are directly related to the movie itself, but I'm unsure how they'll work with any of the other popular themes.
At this point you should point out that the current number one CAGR% theme, Dino, doesn't really merge well with others.  To that I'd have to say that dinosaurs have been popular with kids, since, well, dinosaurs existed *almost*.  These movie sets are a break from anything I've seen TLG make, and since they don't play well with other themes I think they need to stand on their own.  These sets look like Cuusoo sets gone wild - very fun, very original, but I don't think the sum of the parts is greater than the whole.  Without a past history of success for a whole line made in this fashion, I'm leery of tying up my investment capital.  Also, a good chunk of the sets have those micromanagers that look like glorified black boxes - not sure how much long-term appeal they have, or if people are going to want to army build with them...
2) Movie release date/Will people remember TLM by the holidays 2014?
I think the release date is terrible - why wouldn't a move that is essentially a vehicle to sell and promote toys (that sell best during the holidays) be released during the holidays?  I'm concerned that by the holidays of 2014 the sets being released now will have almost no prime retail space allocated to them, (perhaps a couple of the rumored summer sets, but likely not a lot of the sets currently on shelves) and it will be up to children to specifically ask for these older sets.  Conversely, had the movie been released in, say, early November, I could see the shelves being emptied during the holidays and a little more momentum for the theme.
3) Lack of minifig desirability One of the biggest drivers of quite a few popular themes are the minifigs.  Look at the selling prices some superheroes or LOTR or SW minifigs are going for and you can see that the desirability of certain minifigs can make or break a sets investment potential.  My concern is that the collectible minifig line as well as the minifigs in the sets themselves are not going to be commanding high secondary prices, thereby limiting one significant factor in secondary market growth.  They aren't bad by any means, and some of them are downright awesome (I like the ice cream vendor guy) but I don't see them being as popular or collectible as licensed-theme characters.
4) Kid-focused movies have a history of investment woes.  Check out a sampling of some past Disney made movies.  Yes, you could argue that Lone Ranger wasn't 'for kids' - if you believe critics its target demographic was essentially no one - but it was a supposed blockbuster in line with POTC and POP - maybe not directly for little kids, but I'd wager they were looking for a lot of younger folks buying tickets.
Movie/Lego CollaborationBox Office Success (US/Worldwide)Overall CAGR%Theme highlights/outliersTheme lowlights/outliersPrince of Persia (2010)Approx 90 million USA & CAN, 244 million worldwide. Best video game adaptation ever in terms of box office (sorry Lara Croft) but these movie watchers aren't buying enough Lego!- 9.66%The Battle of Alamut - to have the biggest set (which tends to be the best profit % earner post-EOL) still be sitting 22.57% below retail is a real kick in the face to folks who say "buy any Lego set at 20% off or more" which might not be the best course of action.Um, all of them. While a couple are growing in value we aren't looking at sets that are significantly better than retail. Ugh!Toy Story 3 (2010)415 million US & CAN, 648 worldwide...my sweet lord, over a billion dollars. For a movie and franchise this popular, how did the Lego sets not set the world on Toy Story Fire?4.59%Transportation, fools! Like the boats below, and trains below that, even a low CAGR theme can get some growth from a form of transportation. Western Train Chase is holding this set in positive CAGR growth, along with the army men. Without them, this would be headed to negative-town.Nothing sticks out as being more worthless than others. The Construct-A-Zurg got some press from Ed awhile back, first for bad, then for having a nice bump in growth (but not well-above-retail growth). The sad truth is most of these are languishing at or near retail and are tar pits to sink your hard-earned capital into.Pirates of the Caribbean (2011)241 million North America, 804 million worldwide - another billion-plus movie-goers.18.80%There are two things driving this theme, both awesome boats. Without Queen Anne's Revenge and the Black Pearl this theme would not be sporting a handsome CAGR, but would be wearing a CAGR of shame, like an investing dunce cap.Okay, it actually isn't as bad as I was intimating in the column to the left - but it isn't all that promising. Long, long after EOL every set I checked showed at least some positive growth during the holiday season, but it isn't like this theme went EOL and money started falling in investors' laps. Even with time it seems unlikely the lesser (non-boat!) sets are going to net nice gains. A new movie on the horizon will help, but it might not be the best place to tie up capital.Cars 2 (2011)191 million in North American, 368 million worldwide, which puts this movie/franchise at over half a billion viewers. If only each one wanted a Construct-A-Zurg8.20%8486 Mack's Team Truck. I literally can't figure out why this set is rocking out with such a high ROI%. It is carrying this theme as a red big rig (yes...transportation, maybe big transportation sets are the key?) even though it certainly isn't the only big rig ever released by TLG. If anyone knows why this is a diamond in the rough, let me know.A few sets are showing some growth, but it is basically getting at/near or slightly above retail, which means not too much here to make your fortune on.The Lone Ranger (2013)89 million North America, 171 worldwide...Eeesh, worst Lego-Disney collaboration on this list. Still liking these sets?N/A - also would be unfair as many of these sets are/were on clearance recently.Constitution Train seems to be the investors choice with the stagecoach a close second. Time will tell.Anything but the train? Hard to say at this point. If the theme is indeed EOL it would be a very VERY short run which might positively impact growth. 
 Some interesting observations here - most prominently, that Disney makes pretty successful (nay, very successful) flicks with some astonishing box office numbers.  With numbers like these, it seems obvious that Lego sets tied to these franchises would have huge investment potential.  From what I can gather, however, is that no matter how many people go to see a movie, it doesn't always translate into investment potential.  Outside of a couple of real investment winners, these themes are not places any investor would like to tie up funds.  In looking at these numbers, is anyone else concerned that the Lone Ranger was BY FAR the worst box office-rated movie in the Disney lineup, which features generally poor performing sets?  I know there has been some love for a few of the sets in these forums, but despite all the love I'm still leery.  A super short run might help, but I'm still not convinced there is solid investment potential in LR or any other Disney-movie-based set that isn't a form of transportation.
5) Set overload
I get that TLG is ready to put a huge push to make this movie a success.  I think that perhaps free of paying huge, licensing fees for other lines, TLG was literally like a kid in a candy store, but the store was a factory with Lego-making molds.  Does a release of this many sets all at once dilute interest or drive children to try and collect them all?
Pros:
The 2 in 1 sets are very cool.  I think that for a lot of builders these are must-owns.  Even with the ice-cream-loving Heartlake gals being considered, I think it is unlikely we'll ever get another Lego Ice Cream Truck (with awesome minifigs).  I also think this will be the only plumbing truck we get, and every Lego cityscape needs jobs for their minifigs that don't involve fire or police work (or being chased by said police).
Overall, I have quite a few concerns about this theme, and none of them likely concern TLG.  I'm comfortable predicting the movie will be quite successful and even with possibly smaller sales of Lego sets (compared to licensed or very popular themes) the fact that there are no licensing fees means TLG probably needs to sell a heck of a lot less than, say, LOTR sets, to make a profit.  I am interested in the larger rumored summer wave of sets that might (edit* will) see a very large classic space ship and Metalbeard's Sea Cow, which are larger and might appeal more to AFOLs, but for this first wave I'm not very optimistic that there are a lot of winners in this set.  Tread carefully!
Also, feel free to tell me why I'm wrong about this line and how it is going to set the secondary market on fire!  Since we're still in the infancy of this theme, there is plenty of room for dissenting opinion and I'm certainly no Lego Nostradamus.  Still, not every theme can be an investment winner - for each set above the CAGR% average there is one below, and the trick is recognizing which side a theme is destined for.  I'm giving it the investment equivalent of Romans giving gladiators two thumbs down - investment death.
There are a lot of great reasons to get into polybags; sometimes they show up in your Lego orders for free or after buying enough product, sometimes you see a nice box of them in a store with a sale or clearance price tag and wonder if there is any value there.  Sometimes you see them being discussed on Brickpicker or another Lego forum and simply decide you *must* obtain a certain polybag because it is pretty darn cool or fits perfectly into your Lego MOC.  Whatever your reason, I'd like to outline a few strategies to use for buying, listing, packing and selling these little guys.  I've found that with a little research, some hard work and time, you can get a really solid ROI% (return on investment) for each little poly.  With these attributes plus volume, you can add a decent total profit to your Lego investing bottom line.
Buying
 If you read my other polybag article, covering the 2013 polybags in a hauntingly beautiful photo retrospective, you'll probably conclude that the best bags of 2013 came from S&H offers or video game pre-orders (Elrond was hot a couple years ago for this very reason) so it can be tough to amass a large number.  That being said, the obvious thing to do is make your S&H purchases well-planned around good promotions.  At times I've made purchases without looking too carefully at upcoming promotions and end up blowing part of my Lego budget and getting a so-so promotional polybag when I could have waited and gotten, say, a VW Camper.  I've also found (at least in Canada) that TRU consistently has the most promotions with free polybags if you buy enough.  I know a lot of folks dislike TRU for their ridiculous mark-ups, but sometimes it pays to shop there.  (Best promo of 2013 was spend $30 on Superhero sets and get a free Robin poly, which, at the time, could be sold for $25+, making your LEGO almost free!).  You need to also keep up on the forums to see where polybags are being spotted at a variety of large retailers.  It seems even previously 'exclusive' polybags can show up months later somewhere else in a clearance aisle.  Hunting polybags this way is a lot of fun, and it keeps me occupied when my wife is shopping for other non-essential things like food & clothing (as opposed to Lego)
So you watch your promotions, check out your local stores regularly and still aren't getting enough poly-action in your life - what to do?  I recommend bulk buying.  As mentioned above, in different markets and at different stores, it seems folks can always seem to find things on sale that you can't.  Some of these folks choose to see in lots of 5, 10, 20 or more, looking to make a quick flip without the pain of many, many trips to a mailbox, oodles of envelope licking and the like. (Personally, I derive great satisfaction from envelope licking, but to each their own) If you are willing to buy a lot of 20 and sell them slowly over the next few months one at a time, you can probably make some scratch, especially if you pick a poly that has a nice minifig or comes from a popular theme.
Another great way to grab polys is from the United Kingdom.  The Daily Mail used to run regular promotions where our friends across the pond could essentially trade in newspapers for Lego!  After one of these promotions, there are usually quite a few quick flippers looking to sell bulk lots, and by buying bulk the shipping costs per unit remain quite low.  My best buys from Daily Mail promotions were Zombie Coffin Cars, Hawkeye with Hero Gear, Uruk-Hai's and such.  At one time my wife was giving me raised-eyebrow looks of derision when a couple hundred polybags were in my basement, but they've sold so well that she doesn't complain anymore (about Lego polybags - this does not include complaining about other Lego-related issues).  I'm not sure when the next promotion is, but I'll be keeping an eye on it!  I also keep an eye out for polys that are only available in certain countries/regions and try to find a bulk lot to bring to Canada where I can offer free & fast shipping on 'rare' polys.
Listing
 I almost exclusively sell through ebay, although I'm happy to sell through other channels it seems that I get most of my sales through the 'bay.  I believe in Buy it Now listings for items like polybags.  First, the anecdotal evidence I seen in researching the other polybag article tells me that starting auctions low seems to generally result in lower (on average) prices. If you still want to run an auction but start with an opening bid close to your minimum, you're likely wasting your time - if you price really well, you'll know the high end of what people will pay for your polybag and you're unlikely to start a bidding frenzy.  You'll also have a tough time starting a bidding frenzy for all but the rarest of polybags because you'll have plenty of competition on the market, all of which makes auctions not really worth it in my experience.
I like to list from more than one account.  My wife has an account of her own and sells her own stuff, but I often get her to list polys for me.  If I have a lot of a particular set I like to list it in two places, one with free shipping (in Canada) and the other with a lower price + shipping.  For some reason, some buyers seem to prefer one or the other, even though they ultimately both cost exactly the same.  I like to give choice, plus get more exposure for a set I have a lot of.  Remember, the key is volume with these little guys, otherwise you've spent a lot of time buying & listing a set to only sell a couple for a paltry total profit.
Packaging and Shipping
This is the easiest part of polybag investing; you've already spent time and energy buying polybags, storing them somewhere, listing them, getting paid and now you're ready to get them out the door.  Shipping is satisfying and delightfully easy, plus you can lick envelope glue if you really want to.
Packaging
I choose dollar store small bubble mailers as my go to.  They can fit one poly easily, and when one buyer buys several, you can still usually get at least four or five in there, which means only one stamp needed.  I'm sure wherever you are, you can find a cheap supply of these.  When I started to 'go big', I bought a large pack from Staples when they were on sale, but if nothing is on sale and I'm in need, the dollar store is my friend.  If you get them on sale, they can range from about twenty cents to thirty-five each.  I like the extra little protection you get from the bubbles, and thus far buyers have been quite happy.
Shipping
In Canada, these can be shipped as over-sized letter mail, which costs $1.34.  I factor in these costs when I offer free shipping.  The best part is, these don't need the post office!  I put a poly in a mailer, write down the addresses and simply put it in the community mailbox at the end of my street.  Since the post office can have long lines filled with people who seem intent on wasting as much of my life as possible in line behind them, shipping close to home is awesome.  Check out your postal situation or make friends with someone at your local post office and ask them the best (read: cheapest) way to get your polys safely around whatever country you are in. 
I'm guessing you can find a cheap and easy option. I'm sure there are plenty of other folks with their own strategies for selling these little Lego sets, but I hope you can pick up a few tips here and put them to use.  Whatever you decide to do, find a system that works because if you want to make any serious money, you've got to make a lot of shipments.  A lot.

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