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Anyone else experiencing major drops in eBay sales lately???


Doofy McGee
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I'm 13 so any profit is better then doing nothing at all and wasting mine time with TV, Video Games, etc. If nothing else I'm learning how to run a business and be successful. :)

-I don't always go shopping, but when I do I buy Lego-

I thought your generation were just a me me me lazy sack of **** give me. Money while I play video games class. Good for you man. Keep doing what you're doing.
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Why do I feel like this thread as turned into some sort of therapy/comfort session for people that invest in legos?

It is inevitable with any thread... if it goes on long enough, things get way off topic.  The whole idea when I started this thread was to have people weigh in on eBay sales, kind of a "State of the Union" type of deal.  My sales have been down, so I sought information as to why, and what I could do about it.

 

Sure it's fun to always talk about what sets we think are going to be awesome down the road, but sometimes we need to address what is happening now so we can keep things on track for the future.

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It is inevitable with any thread... if it goes on long enough, things get way off topic. The whole idea when I started this thread was to have people weigh in on eBay sales, kind of a "State of the Union" type of deal. My sales have been down, so I sought information as to why, and what I could do about it.

Sure it's fun to always talk about what sets we think are going to be awesome down the road, but sometimes we need to address what is happening now so we can keep things on track for the future.

agreed. Before lego investing *** I used to sell vintage video games. Thst market sucks so much now. Still money in it with yardsale finds and such but why pay 200 bucks for that rare super Nintendo rpg when you can just download it for five bucks on Xbox

The key is always be one step ahead and aware of trends and try *** to predict the future as u can.

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It's actually pretty entertaining - the same folks always bring the same doom and gloom. It's either their personality trait or, my suspicious mind surmises, their way of trying to scare everyone else out of their market.

I hope you are not referring to me on this one Frog.  My posts are usually cheeky and fun, it's the other peoples' posts that are cruel and tragic.  Lol.

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It's actually pretty entertaining - the same folks always bring the same doom and gloom. It's either their personality trait or, my suspicious mind surmises, their way of trying to scare everyone else out of their market.

it's my market!!!!! No one else can sell lego but me!!

I will further your statement by saying those that panic are ones who have either mortgaged the farm on lego, or are not smart enough to find another market. I have my investment money across many platforms. Also, if the lego market goes South it's not a huge deal to me. I'm smart enough to pick up something else just as I have in the past. I just won't have an awsome website to waste too much time on. :)

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It is inevitable with any thread... if it goes on long enough, things get way off topic.  The whole idea when I started this thread was to have people weigh in on eBay sales, kind of a "State of the Union" type of deal.  My sales have been down, so I sought information as to why, and what I could do about it.

 

Sure it's fun to always talk about what sets we think are going to be awesome down the road, but sometimes we need to address what is happening now so we can keep things on track for the future.

 

To bring it a bit back on track...... I have never seen ebay offer so many ebay bucks bonus offers in a short span of time like it has over the past couple months. This could be because ebay sales as a whole have been lower than average.

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I'm smart enough to pick up something else just as I have in the past. I just won't have an awsome website to waste too much time on. :)

Haha, I love it.  Brickpicker is indeed a great site, and I have traded in far too much sleep to sit here and post instead.  Amen brother.

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I hope you are not referring to me on this one Frog.  My posts are usually cheeky and fun, it's the other peoples' posts that are cruel and tragic.  Lol.

 

Please. Like I could ever suspect subtle mind games from someone named "Doofy".

 

Wait a minute... is that your angle?!  :shifty:

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Please. Like I could ever suspect subtle mind games from someone named "Doofy".

 

Wait a minute... is that your angle?!  :shifty:

The joke is on you!  Subtle mind games are my specialty!  And besides... Doofy is actually my middle name.  Aaron Doofy McGee.  I know...how could my parents do that to me?  :D

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there is always an equilibrium - people get in people get out. more people getting in than getting out now, but its not a one way deal. people buy 2 thousands worth of legos, then they need a new car, get sick, want their money back and sell it. these are likely the good deals that people are still getting on ebay like posted yesterday where someone scored a TB, a PS and a CC for 440or something. that's a seller who is throwing in the towel on investing. while this site has a lot of heavy hitters in the lego universe, there is just such a larger group out there than we can comprehend - after all who is doing all the buying to begin with. more and more lego fans are born every day.

I would imagine there are more investors coming to the market than fans, supply is gradually outweighing demand.

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I think many investors are young like myself or past middle age. Those older people will pass away eventually or just not do it anymore cause its work and they are freaking 75. Those younger like myself well most will have life happen. Marriage moving changes etc where it's just not feasible for then anymore. I know I'm in left field a bit but I have a huge luxury right now with storage situation, money etc. Things may not always be that way. If I eve have to move the first thing *** thst would pop on my mind is damn I have a lot of lego. Do I really want to move all of these or trust movers in whatever. Or should I just sell and take what market dictates. I know this is so far from op but seems it's gone that direction of bubble speculation. Life happens and when it does lego investing is bottom of totem poll for most. My real job, gf, happiness etc would come first.

You've just been removed from Emazers Christmas card list

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I don't put too much faith in that total $ much (lots of people just play around), but the 400+ additional members a week since the newspaper article - now that to me is concerning.

I know people say, well they don't come here just for investment info - but if you are looking to discuss your love of LEGO, we all know there are a lot better places to do it.

The 400+ a week is probably a small fraction of the total new investors to the game each week.

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I think Anakin is right.....

 

I stopped buying LEGO alltogether(99% reduction), but then again i am a small time investor in LEGO....

 

When I started selling in 2012 around Christmas, it was quite easy to sell (probably still harder than those who started way before me) 

 

But since 2014 I made 1 sale worth of 18$ on BL, granted my stock is quite low these days, last year I averaged 2 buyers a month. 

 

 

 

I ''predicted'' this quite a few months ago.... I still believe in 2015 we will see a relatively huge drop in prices of LEGO due to world economics and due to competition and people that came in around 2013 dumping out......  CAGR is going ''insane'' (last Xmas) but thats how it always went even with stocks (granted its different, stuff, the pattern is the same!)

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To take it back of subject. I am one of the (Jan 13' USA Today) newbies. I was looking for a hobby. I've been an stock investor since I was 14. The kids are gone, physically i cant compete to the level i want to in the sports i love. I tried coin collecting, I wanted a hobby would have some value. Collected beer cans as a kid= little value. I thought I like money, this would be good, found it boring. Collecting/ investing with Legos fills those two voids. That being said, it would be foolish not to recognize the changing of the Lego market. I've sold on EBay many times before so I realize the costs and challenges. This coming from a "old guy"' and with all seriousness hxckid88 you are one of the few guys that make LOL.

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I am also a newbie brought here by the national news articles, though I am a long time collector (and remain a collector first, investor second). I agree the market has changed even in the last 12 months, and it takes more work now than maybe it did last year. But get a grip, people. LEGO has not, as far as we can tell, substantially increased the supply. While it may be harder to flip sets and take longer to sell at the price point you want, there are still only so many of each set available while demand (as others have noted) is increasing. So yes, there probably aren't any Corner Cafe or 10179 style returns left out there. But investors have been saying that since I joined this site.

 

If you think there is a bubble, by all means get out. But I dare say those who think the investment potential is "ruined" don't really understand LEGO. If you are here because LEGO is your play of the moment, that's great and I'm happy you are able to be a part of the LEGO community for however brief a moment. I am an engineer  who has been a LEGO fanatic since I was 5 years old. I can say with relative certainty that I am an engineer in large part BECAUSE I played with LEGO from an early age. Pure investors who are in this looking for the play du jour may think that LEGO is just like any other collectable, but I think this is ignorance. You just don't understand the LEGO idea.

 

I could natter on about this, but it's been said before. Bottom line is, unless/until LEGO drastically changes their business model the market for resellers is going to be stable. Predictions of a worldwide collapse in demand sound to me like the claims the dollar is going to collapse and the U.S. will become a third world economy. Believe it if you like, and by all means get yourself out of LEGO if you feel you need to. I'll keep on collecting the LEGO system as long as I live (or until the dollar collapses LOL) and if I can make a little money on the side while subsidizing my collecting habits, all the better.

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I thought your generation were just a me me me lazy sack of **** give me. Money while I play video games class. Good for you man. Keep doing what you're doing.

You are lazy. I bet you are typing this from your Obamaphone, sitting on the couch eating chips, playing minecraft and collecting welfare.

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I am also a newbie brought here by the national news articles, though I am a long time collector (and remain a collector first, investor second). I agree the market has changed even in the last 12 months, and it takes more work now than maybe it did last year. But get a grip, people. LEGO has not, as far as we can tell, substantially increased the supply. While it may be harder to flip sets and take longer to sell at the price point you want, there are still only so many of each set available while demand (as others have noted) is increasing. So yes, there probably aren't any Corner Cafe or 10179 style returns left out there. But investors have been saying that since I joined this site.

If you think there is a bubble, by all means get out. But I dare say those who think the investment potential is "ruined" don't really understand LEGO. If you are here because LEGO is your play of the moment, that's great and I'm happy you are able to be a part of the LEGO community for however brief a moment. I am an engineer who has been a LEGO fanatic since I was 5 years old. I can say with relative certainty that I am an engineer in large part BECAUSE I played with LEGO from an early age. Pure investors who are in this looking for the play du jour may think that LEGO is just like any other collectable, but I think this is ignorance. You just don't understand the LEGO idea.

I could natter on about this, but it's been said before. Bottom line is, unless/until LEGO drastically changes their business model the market for resellers is going to be stable. Predictions of a worldwide collapse in demand sound to me like the claims the dollar is going to collapse and the U.S. will become a third world economy. Believe it if you like, and by all means get yourself out of LEGO if you feel you need to. I'll keep on collecting the LEGO system as long as I live (or until the dollar collapses LOL) and if I can make a little money on the side while subsidizing my collecting habits, all the better.

It is a post like this which sums up my feelings on this subject and why this site was developed. There are plenty of untapped markets and sets for the LEGO investing party to continue. For those "old timers" who were spoiled by 100%+++ returns in less than a year, sorry that Jeff and I pooped on your parade. Adapt or die. The incessant complaining about the good old days and how BrickPicker ruined the market is growing tiresome. Obviously, the value of many sets continues to climb. Maybe all of you anti-BrickPicker types are choosing the wrong sets to sell.

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Why not talk about this, after all it's a forum and that's what they're designed for. Plus as this is relevant to the thread I'm happy to continue discussing it.

Regarding the slow down of sales; if Lego release 200-400 sets a year and the supply (investors) continues to grow larger than the demand (buyers) surely there will be a slowdown to sales and reduced profits. After all the market is becoming more watered down with the sheer volume of choice. Even Harry Potter sets are seeing downturn in sales now.

I'm noticing that it's the bidding auctions that do the most damage to my sales. The more sellers selling means more bidding auctions, more bidding auctions means people buy less of the BIN listings because they know they'll probably get it cheaper.

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Why not talk about this, after all it's a forum and that's what they're designed for. Plus as this is relevant to the thread I'm happy to continue discussing it.

Regarding the slow down of sales; if Lego release 200-400 sets a year and the supply (investors) continues to grow larger than the demand (buyers) surely there will be a slowdown to sales and reduced profits. After all the market is becoming more watered down with the sheer volume of choice. Even Harry Potter sets are seeing downturn in sales now.

I'm noticing that it's the bidding auctions that do the most damage to my sales. The more sellers selling means more bidding auctions, more bidding auctions means people buy less of the BIN listings because they know they'll probably get it cheaper.

 

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Auctions are for buying, BIN are for selling - all the latter needs is a bit of patience. EBay give enough free listings for non-pro sellers so that you never have to pay a penny if you want to auction with a starting price you're willing to sell at. 

 

But the most important lesson most have never learned, is that this is not a get rich quick ponzi scheme. Lego is a solid performing commodity which outperforms the stock market - but it takes time to see the rewards.

 

Sure, there's the odd quick flip. But in general, those with no patience for financial gain need not apply.

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What evidence (real data, not made up) do you have that supply is outpacing demand? Keep in mind, investors are NOT the supply. LEGO factories are the supply. A LEGO set in the hands of an investor isn't 2 LEGO sets, it's still just one. LEGO, as we all know, attempts to limit the affects investors have on the overall supply in the short term. Investors who buy and hold create an artificially tight supply in the short term, not the other way around. Resellers cannot affect the supply, only the current price point. In the end, only LEGO controls the actual supply. And they are pretty particular about not oversaturating the market.

 

For the record, Brickset shows (359) 2014 releases, which includes all promo items, poly bags, juniors, Duplo, collectible minifigures, etc. Just so we're using real data. I would say 2014 is probably an anomaly with the Movie sets being an extra theme, 2 collectible minifig releases, etc. Time will tell. I am not worried.

 

For the record, Amazon sales have been steady for me in 2014. Same with BrickLink. I don't do much on eBay.

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But the most important lesson most have never learned, is that this is not a get rich quick ponzi scheme. Lego is a solid performing commodity which outperforms the stock market - but it takes time to see the rewards.

Sure, there's the odd quick flip. But in general, those with no patience for financial gain need not apply.

I'm going to guess there are a fair few (judging by eBay and certain posts on here) that believe this is a 'get rich quick' scheme. You're right there are some great flipping opportunities but most of my purchases are made with a long term strategy in mind.

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