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Anyone else experiencing major drops in eBay sales lately???


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I'm the very definition of a "lurker" but I just wanted to throw something out there....   All this talk of how BP being to blame for all the new sellers out there is way off base.  The nu

It is a post like this which sums up my feelings on this subject and why this site was developed. There are plenty of untapped markets and sets for the LEGO investing party to continue. For those "ol

And how many sellers have quit the LEGO selling game since January 2010? Raise your hands... oh, wait, you're not here so you can't.

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One full day of work and I miss all this? I'm never leaving the dock again.

I know. When you start from last night, you realized you missed another spirited BP discussion. There was even talk of a fight behind the swing set.

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Per Jeff's graph, the number of LEGO sold was also trending down toward the end of March 2013. Maybe just maybe LEGO is a seasonal item ;)

The Easter chicken may bring LEGO in the baskets which will make it rise, rise, rise......and keep the sky from falling.

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I wish you would stop confusing us with facts. The sky is falling and we're all going to die, several people have said so repeatedly, so it must be true.

 

Sales and Dollar numbers are pretty much flat year over year, while the graph shows that the listings are higher.

 

You are somehow saying that proves what point exactly?

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Sales and Dollar numbers are pretty much flat year over year, while the graph shows that the listings are higher.

 

You are somehow saying that proves what point exactly?

 

It's month after month, not year after year. By something like 5% in the 12th month. When the March figures are in, with the trend of the number of listings falling over the past two months from the December upswing, I doubt even the 5% will hold and we'll probably see this March within a very few percent of last March.

 

"Proving", that over the course of a year, LEGO listing numbers and dollars spent haven't changed much.

 

A year is a short amount of time to draw any definitive conclusions, but so far the hue and cry about there being a lot more sellers and the market being destroyed doesn't seem to be supported by empirical data.

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Per Jeff's graph, the number of LEGO sold was also trending down toward the end of March 2013. Maybe just maybe LEGO is a seasonal item ;)

I hate to break it to all of you "Chicken Littles" out there, but Jeff and I have observed this type of graph and data since we have started keeping track well over 3 years ago.  The same shape of graph, over the same time periods, with the same ups and downs, highs and lows.  We have seen it for site activity, CAGR, # of sales, total $ sales and so on.  It is remarkably consistent.  

 

This whole conversation is based on one seller's observations, with no other basis in fact.  So I wouldn't bail on LEGO investing just yet if you want my opinion.  

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I hate to break it to all of you "Chicken Littles" out there, but Jeff and I have observed this type of graph and data since we have started keeping track well over 3 years ago.  The same shape of graph, over the same time periods, with the same ups and downs, highs and lows.  We have seen it for site activity, CAGR, # of sales, total $ sales and so on.  It is remarkably consistent.  

 

This whole conversation is based on one seller's observations, with no other basis in fact.  So I wouldn't bail on LEGO investing just yet if you want my opinion.  

 

And you kept it from us all this time? You selfish sods  :whistle:

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The graph tells us nothing except what the last year looked like. We need the last 2 or 3 years to make any meaningful guesses and comparisons.

 

If the sold graphs are holding steady while the listing graph is growing, that implies that the seller pool is growing while the buyer pool is holding steady. We need 2-3 years worth to have a meaningful discussion.

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"Proving", that over the course of a year, LEGO listing numbers and dollars spent haven't changed much.

 

A year is a short amount of time to draw any definitive conclusions, but so far the hue and cry about there being a lot more sellers and the market being destroyed doesn't seem to be supported by empirical data.

 

Actually, I don't believe it's possible to speak on the issue of a lot more sellers yet -- until they pull up some distinct user counts over the same time period.  It could be true that there are more sellers, but the total number of sets purchased and money spent by buyers is the same.  Basically the size of the market may be unchanged -- but the market share for some sellers may have declined.

 

Also less likely but possible with the data shared so far, is that cheap sets may have gotten cheaper and expensive sets more expensive -- that could result in similar sales volumes and total dollars spent, but I doubt it.

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I actually think the graphs provide Doofy (the OP) with some relevant trends.  I would guess his recent drop in sales is due in part to the reduced sales from this time of year (as the graph shows) but also, as he and others speculated, from the decision to utilize 'Good till canceled' listing duration. 

 

From my own experience, my listings tend to sell during the first week or so of listing.  Once you pass that 10 day mark, the chances of a sale on a particular listing plummet.  When the item is relisted, there's another spike in view and often that same listing that languished for a month sells.  With 'Good till cancelled', you don't get that fresh spike in views after relisting.

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Actually, I don't believe it's possible to speak on the issue of a lot more sellers yet 

 

Unlike our falling skies participants (no relation to the bad sci fi show), I haven't made any claims as to whether there are more sellers, less sellers, the same number of sellers, etc., so I haven't spoken on the issue of a lot more sellers other than to say I don't see the evidence yet.

 

I have stated that I'm not personally worried about my ability to outsmart 90% of the sellers out there and comfortable with my ability to carve a nice niche amongst the 10% that comprise my actual competition.

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I hate to break it to all of you "Chicken Littles" out there, but Jeff and I have observed this type of graph and data since we have started keeping track well over 3 years ago.  The same shape of graph, over the same time periods, with the same ups and downs, highs and lows.  We have seen it for site activity, CAGR, # of sales, total $ sales and so on.  It is remarkably consistent.  

 

This whole conversation is based on one seller's observations, with no other basis in fact.  So I wouldn't bail on LEGO investing just yet if you want my opinion.

How do you cancel a hundred CL listings?
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The graph tells us nothing except what the last year looked like. We need the last 2 or 3 years to make any meaningful guesses and comparisons.

 

If the sold graphs are holding steady while the listing graph is growing, that implies that the seller pool is growing while the buyer pool is holding steady. We need 2-3 years worth to have a meaningful discussion.

I think that we need a little more before we can interpret the charts 100% correctly. There may be some growth in number of resellers over a year, but eventually goes back down in a couple of months.

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The graph tells us nothing except what the last year looked like. We need the last 2 or 3 years to make any meaningful guesses and comparisons.

 

If the sold graphs are holding steady while the listing graph is growing, that implies that the seller pool is growing while the buyer pool is holding steady. We need 2-3 years worth to have a meaningful discussion.

Basically it shows you a declining trend this time of year.  This trend has been duplicated the last 3 years.  There is no real indication of a severe drop in sales.

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I can give you all evidence of more "sellers" or "investors" than a few years ago. Here we go. Who here was "selling" or "investing" in LEGO before Jan 2010? Raise your hand. Ok, just a handful. Now, who started AFTER Jan 2010? Raise your hand. Wow, too many to count. Come one guys and gals its not rocket science. Yes there are more. Yes the pie has to be split up more. Yes sales per individual will be less per same unit. Remember: Denial is not a river in Africa. Ok, new question. Who here was solely a "buyer" or "hobbyist" until you started "investing" or "selling". Wow, that's a lot of hands. No more need to discuss. Class dismissed.

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