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Anyone else experiencing major drops in eBay sales lately???


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I'm the very definition of a "lurker" but I just wanted to throw something out there....   All this talk of how BP being to blame for all the new sellers out there is way off base.  The nu

It is a post like this which sums up my feelings on this subject and why this site was developed. There are plenty of untapped markets and sets for the LEGO investing party to continue. For those "ol

And how many sellers have quit the LEGO selling game since January 2010? Raise your hands... oh, wait, you're not here so you can't.

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Basically it shows you a declining trend this time of year.  This trend has been duplicated the last 3 years.  There is no real indication of a severe drop in sales.

That isn't entirely true. The deltas on the y axis are what matter. We have no deltas here because it's a single unit of time (year). The year-over-year graph could look identical but if the y axis changes then the picture it paints is very different. See the "stock market today same as 1920" post where the graph was complete garbage and so were the conclusions because the y axis was skewed even though the graph "lined up almost exactly".

 

I have a feeling of what it will look like, but I don't have enough info to make a statement until I see the data from 2-3 years. But I have a feeling the devil lies in the deltas.

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I can give you all evidence of more "sellers" or "investors" than a few years ago. Here we go. Who here was "selling" or "investing" in LEGO before Jan 2010? Raise your hand. Ok, just a handful. Now, who started AFTER Jan 2010? Raise your hand. Wow, too many to count. Come one guys and gals its not rocket science. Yes there are more. Yes the pie has to be split up more. Yes sales per individual will be less per same unit. Remember: Denial is not a river in Africa. Ok, new question. Who here was solely a "buyer" or "hobbyist" until you started "investing" or "selling". Wow, that's a lot of hands. No more need to discuss. Class dismissed.

ASSUME

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I can give you all evidence of more "sellers" or "investors" than a few years ago. Here we go. Who here was "selling" or "investing" in LEGO before Jan 2010? Raise your hand. Ok, just a handful. Now, who started AFTER Jan 2010? Raise your hand. Wow, too many to count. Come one guys and gals its not rocket science. Yes there are more. Yes the pie has to be split up more. Yes sales per individual will be less per same unit. Remember: Denial is not a river in Africa. Ok, new question. Who here was solely a "buyer" or "hobbyist" until you started "investing" or "selling". Wow, that's a lot of hands. No more need to discuss. Class dismissed.

 

What is even more amazing than people trying to state that there are not more sellers, is that many actually seem to believe it.

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That isn't entirely true. The deltas on the y axis are what matter. We have no deltas here because it's a single unit of time (year). The year-over-year graph could look identical but if the y axis changes then the picture it paints is very different. See the "stock market today same as 1920" post where the graph was complete garbage and so were the conclusions because the y axis was skewed even though the graph "lined up almost exactly".

 

I have a feeling of what it will look like, but I don't have enough info to make a statement until I see the data from 2-3 years. But I have a feeling the devil lies in the deltas.

Great point.  I know what you are looking for and all I can tell you is that will cost you money.  LOL.  There is only so much we will give away for free.  

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Are you really saying that you believe that the number of sellers who quit are equal to the number of sellers who have started???

 

No. I try not to state as facts things I can't support with evidence.

 

What I'm stating is that those who contend that a) There are a lot more sellers now than there were last month, last quarter, or last year and b )That the increase in number of sellers as a body, if any, is unsupported by a corresponding increase of buyers as a body, have not provided data to support their beliefs.

 

I don't currently have data to support a belief in dragons, alien life forms living in my walls, or any reason for hoping my teenage daughters will someday learn to hear and respond to an alarm clock. Doesn't mean those things don't exist or won't exist, I just have no evidence to show to support a belief in them.

 

Edited to add "b" in the second paragraph, and rewrote second paragraph, which was a hot mess.

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What is even more amazing than people trying to state that there are not more sellers, is that many actually seem to believe it.

I don't think people are that stupid.  There are more sellers...and collectors and buyers as well.  If you want to get a general feel for interest in LEGO in general, take a look at Brickset's web traffic numbers over the years.  They have nothing to do with investing and reselling, yet their traffic and member counts have exploded.  

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No. I try not to state as facts things I can't support with evidence.

 

What I'm stating is that those who contend that a) There are a lot more sellers now than there were last month, last quarter, or last year and b )That the number of new sellers, if any, is unsupported by a corresponding number of new buyers, have not provided data to support their beliefs.

 

I don't currently have data to support a belief in dragons, alien life forms living in my walls, or any reason for hoping my teenage daughters will someday learn to hear and respond to an alarm clock. Doesn't mean those things don't exist or won't exist, I just have no evidence to show to support a belief in them.

 

Edited to add "b" in the second paragraph, and rewrote second paragraph, which was a hot mess.

 

None of us have that data either but we all see the section on the website telling us there are multiple new members signing up daily. Would be interesting to see how many sign up each week and website traffic numbers over the various periods of time. Of course I don't expect Jeff to divulge this information but would give a better insight into a growing debate.

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Crusty, unfortunately the numbers of sign ups here don't tell us whether those new members are resellers (or at what level - a guy selling two kits a year or two thousand kits a year?) or just folks who like LEGO sites and know this is a good place to hear about bargains.

 

It also doesn't tell us which folks new to the site are new to investing or reselling (if applicable) and which have been selling pros for years and just signed up here, and it doesn't tell us how many new fans and buyers are coming into the LEGO hobby to correspond with the real or imagined rise in number of new resellers and investors, on this site or off of it.

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I am going home right now, but Jeff mentioned one particular type of set after he looked at the data for the last three years that had an effect on overall sales...Collectible Minifigures.  I will let you all ponder the implications of CMF listings in the increase of listings.  Have a good day...

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None of us have that data either but we all see the section on the website telling us there are multiple new members signing up daily. Would be interesting to see how many sign up each week and website traffic numbers over the various periods of time. Of course I don't expect Jeff to divulge this information but would give a better insight into a growing debate.

 

Actually I don't think that means anything.  How many times have we mentioned that everyone here is not a lego investor?  Many come here are fans of lego and look to the LEGO daily deals to get a good deal.  Some read the forums, some read the blogs, some do whatever it is that they do, but all do not have a huge stash of lego 

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I am going home right now, but Jeff mentioned one particular type of set after he looked at the data for the last three years that had an effect on overall sales...Collectible Minifigures.  I will let you all ponder the implications of CMF listings in the increase of listings.  Have a good day...

 

That is a big contributor for sure, but one other thing to note is the amount of people that part out sets.  Those two types of listings have increased overall listings a lot in the last 2+ years.

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Actually I don't think that means anything.  How many times have we mentioned that everyone here is not a lego investor?  Many come here are fans of lego and look to the LEGO daily deals to get a good deal.  Some read the forums, some read the blogs, some do whatever it is that they do, but all do not have a huge stash of lego 

Some also come here to see how much their Lego collection is worth. That is what I came here for originally, but then I started to invest in some sets.

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This is quite an entertaining yet informative thread. The bottom line is that you have to embrace change no matter what business you're in. Diversification is good which is why Lego is only part of what I sell. Perhaps there is a storm coming but, I'll ride it out like I did with the flat I rent out. Patience is key.

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Crusty, unfortunately the numbers of sign ups here don't tell us whether those new members are resellers (or at what level - a guy selling two kits a year or two thousand kits a year?) or just folks who like LEGO sites and know this is a good place to hear about bargains.

 

It also doesn't tell us which folks new to the site are new to investing or reselling (if applicable) and which have been selling pros for years and just signed up here, and it doesn't tell us how many new fans and buyers are coming into the LEGO hobby to correspond with the real or imagined rise in number of new resellers and investors, on this site or off of it.

 

 

Actually I don't think that means anything.  How many times have we mentioned that everyone here is not a lego investor?  Many come here are fans of lego and look to the LEGO daily deals to get a good deal.  Some read the forums, some read the blogs, some do whatever it is that they do, but all do not have a huge stash of lego 

 

Interesting points but completely speculative. There's a lot of guess work when looking at the number of investors. My opinions are nothing more than guess work based on eBay sales, forum threads and messages on deal websites such as HotukDeals. Tell me this though Jeff, how much activity on this site really do you see involving the collecting and building aspect of Lego in reflection to the investment talk on this site?

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Interesting points but completely speculative. There's a lot of guess work when looking at the number of investors. My opinions are nothing more than guess work based on eBay sales, forum threads and messages on deal websites such as HotukDeals. Tell me this though Jeff, how much activity on this site really do you see involving the collecting and building aspect of Lego in reflection to the investment talk on this site?

 

Lets put it this way, the forum is only one aspect of this site and its not even the most heavily visited.   I am also basing this on the amount of conversations with members that chances are, many of you have never noticed, seen their name or anything because they don't post.  They may peruse the forum, but have zero posts.  Some of these people have quite large collections but it is their personal collection and don't really sell anything.  I am sure one day they will when they want to get space back or buy new sets, but at this point they have not sold any.  Some people just like the site because its different then all the other Lego blogs out there. Sure the forum is active, but it's not everything.

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...amount of total sale the same but if its more sellers each share much less...

eBay is very protective of seller's information and Jeff has to figure out a way to extract that data.

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Are there any examples of other products that have permanently maintained the type of growth Lego has been maintaining over the last several years? just curious.

Barbie Dolls.

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