Retiring Soon - open speculation

[landphieran]

1 minute ago, Ed Mack said:

To me it's a unique set that won't be replicated for awhile.  Plus it looks damn good and wasn't stockpiled.

Just now, Ed Mack said:

It might sink in the tub, but the profits will float!

This will stay around 200$ for quite some time. I wouldn't get your hopes up on insane profits. I've noticed that there is an increasingly large purchasing barrier at premium amounts unless the item is REALLY special and unique (Jurassic World Sets, Falling water). 

This purchased at RRP will do "okay" considering it is a large item and the fee's associated with selling this are 40-50$. I stocked up on Front Wheel Loaders 42030, a truly amazing set, and its stagnated at 400 pretty much since retirement. The technic crane 42042 shot up to 240$ within the first year and has slowly increased now to $270. The real value in these technic sets is your ability to purchase this at 30-40% off, not as common in the U.S. as in Europe. 

[BrickU]

10 minutes ago, landphieran said:

This will stay around 200$ for quite some time. I wouldn't get your hopes up on insane profits. I've noticed that there is an increasingly large purchasing barrier at premium amounts unless the item is REALLY special and unique (Jurassic World Sets, Falling water). 

This purchased at RRP will do "okay" considering it is a large item and the fee's associated with selling this are 40-50$. I stocked up on Front Wheel Loaders 42030, a truly amazing set, and its stagnated at 400 pretty much since retirement. The technic crane 42042 shot up to 240$ within the first year and has slowly increased now to $270. The real value in these technic sets is your ability to purchase this at 30-40% off, not as common in the U.S. as in Europe. 

 Comparing Apples to Oranges imo.  There is a similar set to 42030 and was out for 2 years plus.  42064 has potential for only a 1 year run and likely won't be replicated. Plus no in store TRU anymore.

[Ed Mack]

14 minutes ago, landphieran said:

This will stay around 200$ for quite some time. I wouldn't get your hopes up on insane profits. I've noticed that there is an increasingly large purchasing barrier at premium amounts unless the item is REALLY special and unique (Jurassic World Sets, Falling water). 

This purchased at RRP will do "okay" considering it is a large item and the fee's associated with selling this are 40-50$. I stocked up on Front Wheel Loaders 42030, a truly amazing set, and its stagnated at 400 pretty much since retirement. The technic crane 42042 shot up to 240$ within the first year and has slowly increased now to $270. The real value in these technic sets is your ability to purchase this at 30-40% off, not as common in the U.S. as in Europe. 

Maybe...Maybe not.  I am not saying this is a $400.00 set, but I can see upper 200s.  The key is how many people have this set.  Not many in my opinion.  It will be the type of set that people will notice when it's gone, then say, "Oh, that was a cool set...I want one."  

[vexxet]

Im going to ask a question here that might cause some fighting.  I dont want anyone to feel like they are putting their reputations or opinions on the line with this if they are wrong in the future.  I currently do not own any Porsche 911 GT3s.  I  I just want to know would it be a good idea buying 3 of them before they retire and if they see relatively good returns on this set in the future (i am probably going to buy at least 1 right now anyway) from the 292$ price point.  I believe these were clearanced off earlier for a cheaper price right?  if anyone can guess how many units were sold off at the clearance price that would be helpful as well.

[zskid00]

Big sets can be scammer bait on Amazon, so I would consider that before you buy in.  Sure, it could be the next $500 set on there, but there's a lot less potential buyers with those types of sets.

[Ed Mack]

3 minutes ago, vexxet said:

Im going to ask a question here that might cause some fighting.  I dont want anyone to feel like they are putting their reputations or opinions on the line with this if they are wrong in the future.  I currently do not own any Porsche 911 GT3s.  I  I just want to know would it be a good idea buying 3 of them before they retire and if they see relatively good returns on this set in the future (i am probably going to buy at least 1 right now anyway) from the 292$ price point.  I believe these were clearanced off earlier for a cheaper price right?  if anyone can guess how many units were sold off at the clearance price that would be helpful as well.

I love the set, but at full pop, no.  Money could be better spent elsewhere.  

[NIevo]

3 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

I love the set, but at full pop, no.  Money could be better spent elsewhere.  

 

This.  I would love to have gotten into it in the lower $200's but missed out on all the sales.  Not going to chase it at $290+.

[Captain_chaos]

A reminder that the list here isn't exhaustive. Other sets have been tagged since.

2 hours ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

Anyone know/speculate when Asembly Square gets retired?

It's high on my want list..currently still available at LEGO Shop at Home 

It isn't retiring this year. My guess is that it will retire at the end of next year. Out of sequence again, but it is expensive and so probably won't be selling in the same quantities as cheaper modulars. I could be completely wrong though.

[iahawks550]

37 minutes ago, vexxet said:

Im going to ask a question here that might cause some fighting.  I dont want anyone to feel like they are putting their reputations or opinions on the line with this if they are wrong in the future.  I currently do not own any Porsche 911 GT3s.  I  I just want to know would it be a good idea buying 3 of them before they retire and if they see relatively good returns on this set in the future (i am probably going to buy at least 1 right now anyway) from the 292$ price point.  I believe these were clearanced off earlier for a cheaper price right?  if anyone can guess how many units were sold off at the clearance price that would be helpful as well.

There have been several "doorbuster" sales on this set. None have lasted overly long. But as far as how many???????? I'm not sure anyone has an answer for that, besides thousands.

[carini26]

5 month run.  Top AMZN seller.  Cannot stay in stock @ Walmart, Target, or Amazon...

 

[redcell]

21 hours ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

Asking teh 'ol vets on the Site:

is a list like this normal for this time of year?  Seems like a lot of sets.

Pretty normal.  It think it has largely been aggregated from the "Retiring Soon" tags on the LEGO Shop at Home website.  It is not exhaustive so there will be surprises pop up.

19 minutes ago, carini26 said:

5 month run.  Top AMZN seller.  Cannot stay in stock @ Walmart, Target, or Amazon...

 

If the "Sold Out" holds, this retirement is going to catch a lot of resellers flat footed.  Who would think that anything Harry Potter would retire so quickly?

[yannick29]

I am surprised Creator 31058 is not retiring yet.

[Phil B]

5 month run.  Top AMZN seller.  Cannot stay in stock @ Walmart, Target, or Amazon...

 

Thanks for the reminder. Picked up another 7 at B&N just now. 20% off, 10% membership discount, used free $10 GC from their mailer, paid rest with 10% discounted GC. Just qualifies for the minifigs pack, so got another one of those too.

[CathyVT]

52 minutes ago, carini26 said:

5 month run.  Top AMZN seller.  Cannot stay in stock @ Walmart, Target, or Amazon...

 

Sold Out isn't the same as "Retired". Many things sell out then come back in stock, such as the Women of Nasa, or Saturn V. If I had to bet money, I'd say it'll come back in stock.

[redcell]

Just now, CathyVT said:

Sold Out isn't the same as "Retired". Many things sell out then come back in stock, such as the Women of Nasa, or Saturn V. If I had to bet money, I'd say it'll come back in stock.

I'll take that bet.

[carini26]

1 minute ago, CathyVT said:

Sold Out isn't the same as "Retired". Many things sell out then come back in stock, such as the Women of Nasa, or Saturn V. If I had to bet money, I'd say it'll come back in stock.

I'd recommend checking this thread more frequently.  Our Australian friends already tipped us off a few months ago.  It's been in 'Retired Product' status for a few months @ SAH Australia.

[CathyVT]

Just now, redcell said:

I'll take that bet.

And all the people buying feverishly and freaking out when Saturn V was "out of stock"? Now it's everywhere, and often on sale. Why would you assume that this set that has only been out for a few months, won't come back in stock? MANY sets are currently out of stock right now, probably because of the free promos. 

[CathyVT]

3 minutes ago, carini26 said:

I'd recommend checking this thread more frequently.  Our Australian friends already tipped us off a few months ago.  It's been in 'Retired Product' status for a few months @ SAH Australia.

Thanks for (wrongly) assuming that I don't check this thread frequently. My point is that the Women of Nasa, and Saturn V, both said Out of Stock shortly after going on sale. MANY people assumed that was it. BOTH came back in stock, and have been in stock for a LONG time, after they were showing as "Out of Stock". Yes, they will retire, but that's not my point. My point is that very often things come back in stock after being listed as out of stock. It is foolish to assume that "out of stock" will always lead directly to "retired" without coming back in stock.

[exciter1]

[CathyVT]

7 minutes ago, carini26 said:

I'd recommend checking this thread more frequently.  Our Australian friends already tipped us off a few months ago.  It's been in 'Retired Product' status for a few months @ SAH Australia.

Are you saying Harry and Hedgewig Brickheadz are listed as retired @ SAH Australia? If so, I stand corrected. If you're referring to Saturn V, my point stands - it said Out of Stock, but came back in stock for a LONG time (a year now?) before retiring.

[odysea11]

You're not entirely wrong CathyVT.....but I think the Brickheadz are an exception to the norm. We're all still trying to figure out this Brickheadz thing....

[isocleas]

4 minutes ago, CathyVT said:

Are you saying Harry and Hedgewig Brickheadz are listed as retired @ SAH Australia? If so, I stand corrected. If you're referring to Saturn V, my point stands - it said Out of Stock, but came back in stock for a LONG time (a year now?) before retiring.

You stand corrected.

Listed as retired in Australia. How often do they get listed as retired and then come back?

[dx0520]

10 minutes ago, CathyVT said:

And all the people buying feverishly and freaking out when Saturn V was "out of stock"? Now it's everywhere, and often on sale. Why would you assume that this set that has only been out for a few months, won't come back in stock? MANY sets are currently out of stock right now, probably because of the free promos. 

It’s a moot point when most of the resellers here buy at [steep] discounts, so at worse case scenario there is no loss. Not to mention Saturn V has universal appeal and not some tight niche, so whether it’s going to retire now or later, it’s still a great investment if your buy in is below retail.

[redcell]

23 minutes ago, CathyVT said:

Why would you assume that this set that has only been out for a few months, won't come back in stock? 

https://shop.lego.com/en-AU/Harry-Potter-Hedwig-41615

[CathyVT]

7 minutes ago, dx0520 said:

It’s a moot point when most of the resellers here buy at [steep] discounts, so at worse case scenario there is no loss. Not to mention Saturn V has universal appeal and not some tight niche, so whether it’s going to retire now or later, it’s still a great investment if your buy in is below retail.

Not a moot point (but good job using the correct "moot"! It bugs me to no end when people write "mute"  ). I wasn't discussing whether it was a good investment, only whether something might come back in stock after being out of stock.

Retired Harry and Hedwig after a few months is shocking. I'm not really investing much anymore (just don't have the storage space) but I do have 1 spare H&H. I bought several spare Mickey and Minnie instead (may use as xmas gifts). Those, too, are currently OOS @ SAH, but just my luck, they'll come back in stock for years to come.