Retiring Soon - open speculation

[BearCrash]

3 minutes ago, Val-E said:

I meant the ones people give a Trump about.

They obviously did another production run because Tesco ran out of their entire stock after one order from Tabby.

[Ciglione]

4 minutes ago, BearCrash said:

They obviously did another production run because Tesco ran out of their entire stock after one order from Tabby.

You see... it is getting even worse. The spree from Tabby made them think another production run was justifiable due to demand still being there. 

[Val-E]

I have one Doctor Who and I bought it last year at a good discount so don´t look at me. My turdometer has overloaded when analysing all the retiring soon sets. There had better be some hidden gems to compensate.

[Ciglione]

Well... to be honoust. I was already a bit suspicious. Cause these retiring soon tags came a bit too soon to my taste.

Happy I did not fall for the obvious trap. Sets that had the doubtful honour to receive the retiring soon tag do not have a good track record. 

 

[asharerin]

"Retiring Soon" sets are where profit margins go to die. In the USA they can't even convince resellers to buy at a discount. How times have changed.

[Val-E]

I´m figuring Nexo Knights is the way forward. Short shelf lives, massive discounts make it not profitable to clone and very low chance of any remakes. Can´t lose, right?

[Ciglione]

2 minutes ago, Val-E said:

I´m figuring Nexo Knights is the way forward. Short shelf lives, massive discounts make it not profitable to clone and very low chance of any remakes. Can´t lose, right?

That's what they would have said about Ninjago 2 or 3 years ago. Look how that panned out.

[BearCrash]

1 minute ago, Val-E said:

I´m figuring Nexo Knights is the way forward. Short shelf lives, massive discounts make it not profitable to clone and very low chance of any remakes. Can´t lose, right?

Go for it! But keep in mind you'll also need a Tardis to go back in time to buy more Doctor Who sets.

[Val-E]

No issues, it will be "hard to find" a reseller who doesn´t have a tardis at knock down price a year from now.

[BearCrash]

25 minutes ago, Val-E said:

No issues, it will be "hard to find" a reseller who doesn´t have a tardis at knock down price a year from now.

I'm holding mine until the 60th anniversary in 2023.

[grabbitfast]

On 11/5/2016 at 3:31 PM, Val-E said:

that explains why sets are retired in Europe first,hate to say it but you guys in the USA are going to keep this set alive.

Just informed by my Local Lego expert this is the last run for DW in UK ,but he also reckons PC is going as well if he is right about DW might just grab a few PC .

He rarely gets it wrong,but hey come on PC, beginning to think hes spending to much time alone with Lego.

We will soon see.

[GhostDad]

18 hours ago, Ciglione said:

Well... to be honoust. I was already a bit suspicious. Cause these retiring soon tags came a bit too soon to my taste.

Happy I did not fall for the obvious trap. Sets that had the doubtful honour to receive the retiring soon tag do not have a good track record. 

 

Well... Most sets generally have a bad track record.  But the UCS Imperial Shuttle and Diagon Alley both got the retiring soon label and did well.  More recently, even the (imho) toylike and uninspiring EEE got the retiring soon label, got its quantity limit jacked up to 5 from 1 (big red flag there!), and still did alright post-retirement, tying Tumbler on after-fees profit off a smaller investment and box size, and beating the pants of Tower of Orthanc.  I really don't think you can generalize off the retiring soon label alone.  Let's just say Pet Shop will definitely underperform GE, which underperformed FB, and so forth.  If you can find an investment now that looks as promising as Lego did three or four years ago, by all means choose that over any of this year's retiring lego sets.

Re: Nexo Knights.  This theme is a seriously bad sign.  How Lego decided this was a good call is beyond me.  They haven't screwed up this badly since Galidor.  Even Galaxy Squad sets looked cool.  I mean, they sold terribly but they really didn't look half bad.  If I had still been 10 years old, I would have wanted all of them.  But Nexo Knights?  Stupid, ugly, blocky, waste of plastic.  Shame on you Lego.

Edited November 8, 2016 by GhostDad

[Sfcommando14]

35 minutes ago, grabbitfast said:

that explains why sets are retired in Europe first,hate to say it but you guys in the USA are going to keep this set alive.

You Europeans are all doom and gloom these days.  This set has been available for several years and already got whatever extras sales the GBHQ and new movie were going to push.  What purpose do they have to keep it?  As stated on several different threads, there are too many new Ideas sets out or coming out to keep them all around.  And it still took more than a few days to sell out after getting the "Retiring Soon" tag (which generated articles on every single Lego/AFOL site and blog).  That isn't exactly some kind of insatiable reseller appetite that DEMANDS a complete change in production schedule for a set that probably isn't that profitable since there are IP royalties and designer royalties to pay.

I'll eat my words if I'm wrong, but there are plenty of other profitable sets to make, so it isn't as though Lego factories are sitting on their hands waiting for something to do.  They will be too busy making Nexo sets for @GhostDad...

[GhostDad]

2 hours ago, Sfcommando14 said:

You Europeans are all doom and gloom these days.  This set has been available for several years and already got whatever extras sales the GBHQ and new movie were going to push.  What purpose do they have to keep it?  As stated on several different threads, there are too many new Ideas sets out or coming out to keep them all around.  And it still took more than a few days to sell out after getting the "Retiring Soon" tag (which generated articles on every single Lego/AFOL site and blog).  That isn't exactly some kind of insatiable reseller appetite that DEMANDS a complete change in production schedule for a set that probably isn't that profitable since there are IP royalties and designer royalties to pay.

I'll eat my words if I'm wrong, but there are plenty of other profitable sets to make, so it isn't as though Lego factories are sitting on their hands waiting for something to do.  They will be too busy making Nexo sets for @GhostDad...

Darn it.  I hate to think that I'm personally responsible for such an appalling theme.  At least it sounds like an honest misunderstanding.  I said, "make more big, complex classic castle and pirate sets with lots of small pieces" and Lego heard, "release a line of Lego/Duplo hybrid Jetsons-themed monstrosities with giant clunky pieces in day-glow colors."  I really need to learn to communicate more clearly.

[Val-E]

On the plus side, no helicopters - yet.

[fossilrock]

22 hours ago, asharerin said:

"Retiring Soon" sets are where profit margins go to die. In the USA they can't even convince resellers to buy at a discount. How times have changed.

Indeed.  I didn't even login to their website during the entire month of october during 2xvip.  I know i'm kind of a small timer, but this game has hit a new low.  On the plus side, I have paired quite a bit of space in the house as I blew out some crap... but I have yet to replace it with new items.  Far cry from previous years.  

The only set that has been ticking up nicely since late august is raptor escape.   This gives me some minor hope in the Jurassic World theme, but themes like Scooby, most of the Creator sets, and even star wars I think it's safe to say most savy investors are staying away this year.  This years 2xVIP was the biggest dud I can recall since I started becoming interested in lego as my son came of age.  Sets barely even trickled to sold out status, and if they did they were back in a few days time.

[Brickbuilder.g]

3 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

Indeed.  I didn't even login to their website during the entire month of october during 2xvip.  I know i'm kind of a small timer, but this game has hit a new low.  On the plus side, I have paired quite a bit of space in the house as I blew out some crap... but I have yet to replace it with new items.  Far cry from previous years.  

The only set that has been ticking up nicely since late august is raptor escape.   This gives me some minor hope in the Jurassic World theme, but themes like Scooby, most of the Creator sets, and even star wars I think it's safe to say most savy investors are staying away this year.  This years 2xVIP was the biggest dud I can recall since I started becoming interested in lego as my son came of age.  Sets barely even trickled to sold out status, and if they did they were back in a few days time.

compared to the last couple of years, things are somewhat bleak...the only hope right now is lego batman movie gets us back on track like in '14...that will keep us going till '18 when the lego movie comes out and then after that it will be up in the air again...imho

[fossilrock]

6 minutes ago, Brickbuilder.g said:

compared to the last couple of years, things are somewhat bleak...the only hope right now is lego batman movie gets us back on track like in '14...that will keep us going till '18 when the lego movie comes out and then after that it will be up in the air again...imho

The lego batman movie looks quite fun, but the sets themselves don't really interest me personally.  I personally, don't know what it will take.  Even the Lego Movie sets are not performing greatly, and I can still find a few of them at retail outlets, so i'm not sure that was a home run theme.  I've said it before, Lego needs to cut down their offerings by a 1/3rd or more.

 

1 hour ago, GhostDad said:

Darn it.  I hate to think that I'm personally responsible for such an appalling theme.  At least it sounds like an honest misunderstanding.  I said, "make more big, complex classic castle and pirate sets with lots of small pieces" and Lego heard, "release a line of Lego/Duplo hybrid Jetsons-themed monstrosities with giant clunky pieces in day-glow colors."  I really need to learn to communicate more clearly.

If lego did not have licensed themes and had to rely on their own branded themes, this company would be relegated to about a 1/4 of the shelf space they receive at most retailers.  My son had a brief ninjago craze, but it only lasted about a month and we were 3 sets into it when he decided he didn't want them anymore.  Themes like Nexo Knights, Chima, Ultra Agents, the Pirates theme etc just don't spur the interest with kids.  Ninjago is perhaps their most successful theme, and even at that I think they overproduce too many sets for that theme.  I'd be surprised if Nexo Knights lasts past next year.

[Furious_george]

Only ecto and EV are backorder here now. Others are all back.

Sorry if this has already been said.

[Val-E]

54 minutes ago, Brickbuilder.g said:

compared to the last couple of years, things are somewhat bleak...the only hope right now is lego batman movie gets us back on track like in '14...that will keep us going till '18 when the lego movie comes out and then after that it will be up in the air again...imho

If I have to pin my hopes on a combination of two of the weakest themes ever to save Lego investing then I might as well throw in the tool right now.

Edited November 8, 2016 by Val-E

[Val-E]

48 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

  Ninjago is perhaps their most successful theme, and even at that I think they overproduce too many sets for that theme.  I'd be surprised if Nexo Knights lasts past next year.

TLG have thrown so much money at promoting the theme that it would be a bitter pill to swallow if they cut it so soon. Does it deserve another year? No. Will it have one, I think so.

[Voltron]

1 hour ago, fossilrock said:

Indeed.  I didn't even login to their website during the entire month of october during 2xvip.  I know i'm kind of a small timer, but this game has hit a new low.  On the plus side, I have paired quite a bit of space in the house as I blew out some crap... but I have yet to replace it with new items.  Far cry from previous years.  

The only set that has been ticking up nicely since late august is raptor escape.   This gives me some minor hope in the Jurassic World theme, but themes like Scooby, most of the Creator sets, and even star wars I think it's safe to say most savy investors are staying away this year.  This years 2xVIP was the biggest dud I can recall since I started becoming interested in lego as my son came of age.  Sets barely even trickled to sold out status, and if they did they were back in a few days time.

If the mystery machine does not out perform the 8 retiring soon sets by this time next year I'll happily eat a double triple-decker sardine and marshmallow fudge sandwich

[grabbitfast]

3 minutes ago, Mhd747 said:

If the mystery machine does not out perform the 8 retiring soon sets by this time next year I'll happily eat a double triple-decker sardine and marshmallow fudge sandwich

have to agree no retiring soon millstone round this ones neck,just waiting for price to drop.

[GhostDad]

6 minutes ago, Val-E said:

TLG have thrown so much money at promoting the theme that it would be a bitter pill to swallow if they cut it so soon. Does it deserve another year? No. Will it have one, I think so.

I don't know about that.  They cut The Lone Ranger after less than a year.  I think if Lego was a public company with more professional management, they would stick very heavily to a combination of licensed sets (mostly Star Wars) and large exclusives aimed at teenagers to adults.  Ninjago hasn't done badly, but most original Lego themes aimed at kids do quite poorly.  Nexo Knights should have seemed an obvious dud to anyone with a brain.

[Val-E]

The 2017 line has been revealed. The best thing that could happen would be for it to pulled halfway through the year so we get some really rare sets like the Ultra Agents boat. Hopefully they could also divert manpower back to making better UCS SW sets.