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Ideas #026: 21318 - Treehouse


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On 11/24/2020 at 4:09 PM, MusiKyle said:

I've been waiting to offload my open-box one on ebay, looking forward to this remaining sold out to help my chances there.  These were selling great now I'm struggling to sell at $221 (buyer ship).  Maybe closer to Christmas it'll sell. 

I had sold this for $210 + shipping until the buyer realized (as mentioned in title and post) that there was no Lego box only the bags and instructions.  The first time I tried selling this (to a different buyer on eBay) the buyer said his account was hacked and to cancel the order.  This is two cancelations now.  I have learned my lesson on this particular set at least that the product box has value to some people.  Some don't care, but I'm still waiting for those type to come my way.  I'm pleased to see it out of stock at LEGO Shop at Home maybe I can still offload this darn thing.

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15 minutes ago, elmaslıefendi said:

It will come back anyway. But like I said, it doesn't make any sense. Backorders accepted, ships out April. That means, they'd still produce in April. Also they changed the date to Dec 31st 2021. 100%. Only thing I can think of is another short change with the plan to bring it back. But why? This makes no sense at all.

I guess it does make sense to TLG ... It just doesn't make sense to us! :P 

Maybe they're just collecting one last round of orders for a final production run in 1H 2021, then deliver those last produced sets and be done with it? Production to amount of orders...

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1 hour ago, joneyyy1981 said:

Then why retire it? Just leave it available longer ?

im actually beginning to think this is the new strategy. Longer shelf life, less production runs, more sets. 

I think you are at least partially correct. TLG has clearly shifted to a more flexible production schedule. Someone in house finally realized the profits lost by being so strict on retirement dates for popular sets. Covid has probably expedited this decision making changes had to occur anyway with the global scene still playing out.

I also think there will be more changes to come with their strategy in the near future.

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, elmaslıefendi said:

This set would have been 400 next christmas. And my buy-in was so low for these, the party was about to begin.    What a waste. 

This year has been a fantastic year for selling. Hands down one of the best. Unfortunately there was a lot of wasted opportunities. Normally every holiday I liquidate my mistakes. Whether it was accidental buys of something I thought was retiring or missed flipping opportunities. This year has been one of the worst years for me in that regards. With the pull back of HP, re-release of ideas, and continuation of the Tree house. My tax sheet wont show the magnitude of fruitless work that went into this year.

As I've began to reflect on my COVID time investing journey, I found myself making ALL the wrong decisions in the fall. I got caught up in a scarcity narrative, I had extra money I normally didn't have and wasn't patient. When the frenzy of Christmas happens, I feel like I make very good decisive investing decisions. Some of my most successful investments have been late into the year scrolling through sold out items and realizing a winner was sitting in stock that no one was purchasing. Maybe its the fact that I take off most of the year from investing and fall out of touch of the market. 

Cash out the duds when you have a chance and make some better decisions. Lego isn't going to punk me like that again.

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