75159 - UCS: Death Star (2016)

[gregpj]

This one is for you LEGO, inspired by @BrickLegacy and brought to you by Brickpickers everywhere.

[fossilrock]

2 minutes ago, Bold-Arrow said:

Party is now at the 75059 thread 

Red 5 had that title for about 5 or 6 times.  I quit keeping track after a while, but I do have a record of it somewhere.

[Bold-Arrow]

Just now, fossilrock said:

Red 5 had that title for about 5 or 6 times.  I quit keeping track after a while, but I do have a record of it somewhere.

Guess you are not showing up to the party then . More drinks for @dcdfan and I 

[jaxman]

22 minutes ago, shortyz said:

personally i like POE fighter and the Slave 1. Only 2 star wars sets i would buy, and i own 0.

I like those two as well, and would add Sandcrawler.

[ISO8T0]

Party is now at the 75059 thread 

Won't be going to that party. Be interesting to see how it goes the second time around though.

[dcdfan]

Won't be going to that party. Be interesting to see how it goes the second time around though.

They say it's "better than the first time."

[Vinetu]

15 hours ago, KShine said:

To repeat - I am pretty sure that ridiculous statements like this are the reason for any harsh responses.

FYI - My response (from 2015) was specifically related to you repeatedly stating that the 10188 would be worth nothing more than a box of bluish gray pieces (which even with what we know today, is still ridiculous). 

Yes, I'm quite sure you are referring to the tremendous value its minifigs will command now... </sarcasm>

My post wasn't ridiculous, hyperbolic perhaps, but I don't really wish to pursue this any further...

15 hours ago, gregpj said:

Do you want a pat on the back or something? Because it does sound like it.

Most "prominent" board members also tell new and less experience investors about the potential risks (just not in these threads) and always tell people to make their own informed decisions (well, except for one very prominent member who has been pretty absent lately... long return lines I guess). So your criticism is very unfair with respect to the advice normally given.

We do however like to share our opinions, which can be wrong. Nobody is perfect.

I couldn't find the back patting smiling, so here you go just in case:

Also a very condescending post @gregpj, we had a lot of very nice exchanges of opinion, this attitude does not befit you... I specifically emphasized that the objective of the post wasn't to gloat. A little "hey, we were actually very wrong on this one" would have sufficed, particularly in the thread where everyone was adamant that the 10188 was an investment providence and opposing opinion was often ridiculed.

13 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

Let's take a step back...who are you and what did I do to you?  I don't believe I bad mouthed just2good or you.  Maybe I did.  Who knows?  If I did, I apologize.  I'm sure some of us "elitist A-holes" probably pissed some quality members off and they left.  I don't know just2good from this site.  Seems to have legit insider information.  Must work for the company or is close to someone who is.  That's cool with me.  You know the internet, it's not for the faint of heart and sometimes there is collateral damage.  

As for all of us knowing about what the 75159 would be, well, I was saying it in a facetious way.  It hard to pick up sarcasm on the internet.  I assumed LEGO would have done something special with the new version.  I was wrong and overestimated LEGO's creativity and willingness to "go for it."  The 10188 has been a focus around here since we started this site and there have been many, including myself, that made the wrong assumptions about the set.

I've never pretended to know what future of the 10188 or 75159 would be.  Whatever information I stated was based on experience and history and my own personal wish list.  Obviously with this set, trends or history mean nothing.  The set sells a lot, that's why it's still around.  I always thought it was an iconic set, but not much to my taste.  I thought the potential for growth was strong if the remake was different enough not to compete with stockpiled 10188s.  Obviously, that is shot to sh*t, so on to the next set.  

I think many of us assumed the same things and thought there was no way LEGO would remake another Death Star with 40 year old characters and ideas.  I'm sure there were people who foresaw this. Good for them. On any given day, there are dozens of different opinions around here and other forums and most are wrong, including most of mine.  What  I do know for a fact is LEGO is constantly changing the "unwritten" rules and policies and what used to be easy to predict, is no longer that.  

Now @Ed Mack, we also had a few exchanges in other threads and if you go through them you'd see that not only you don't irritate me as you put it, but I very much respect your opinion and all the work you have done here. But that doesn't mean, I hope, that I can't call you on bad judgement calls when it's due... You haven't pretended to know the future but you were quick to dismiss warning signs nevertheless...

10 hours ago, jaisonline said:

Actually, my comment wasn't directed toward or even involved @just2good .  I actually enjoy his posts and many here are thankful for his input and info sharing. 

Thus I'm sure even sure of the purpose of your post.

Our forum community welcome members who contribute insightful and informative content such as posts, set reviews, blogs, introducing themselves and just chatting about the wonderful thing we call a Lego brick .

 

10 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

I have no idea what he is referring to.  I irritate people all the time so it could be me...or not.  I know who he is and I can't recall him posting here.  Why would I want to turn away good info?  

All is cool guys really, not wanting pat on the back, no ill will born, just a reminder that this whole mess wasn't completely out-of-the-blue surprise. The writing on the wall was there. It's just that none read it while rushing by...

[Ed Mack]

All is cool guys really, not wanting pat on the back, no ill will born, just a reminder that this whole mess wasn't completely out-of-the-blue surprise. The writing on the wall was there. It's just that none read it while rushing by...

Well at least now I know I didn't get you mad at me! I never thought we had any issues. Anyway, my point was that we all "should have" expected LEGO to do this with the 10188. Even though common sense dictates otherwise, the 10188 never matched any LEGO trends I knew of. It will probably never retire. It's an anomaly. An outlier. A special set that sells a lot and that's why people thought it would have been a great investment.

That being said, we should expect more of this type of set. A long running, popular set that will not retire or make a comeback years later. It sucks, but we will have to deal with it. The End is not here, but as many of you have stated, it will get more difficult to pick winners and the knockoffs are not helping matters. My main issue of late, besides the counterfeit situation, is the weak STAR WARS theme. Besides a handful of sets, nothing stands out or is impressive. A bad sign for LEGO investing and LEGO fans in general. The 75159 was LEGO's chance to impress and they failed miserably.

[ironbrick]

 

 

16 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

Let's take a step back...who are you and what did I do to you?  I don't believe I bad mouthed just2good or you.  Maybe I did.  Who knows?  If I did, I apologize.  I'm sure some of us "elitist A-holes" probably pissed some quality members off and they left.  I don't know just2good from this site.  Seems to have legit insider information.  Must work for the company or is close to someone who is.  That's cool with me.  You know the internet, it's not for the faint of heart and sometimes there is collateral damage.  

As for all of us knowing about what the 75159 would be, well, I was saying it in a facetious way.  It hard to pick up sarcasm on the internet.  I assumed LEGO would have done something special with the new version.  I was wrong and overestimated LEGO's creativity and willingness to "go for it."  The 10188 has been a focus around here since we started this site and there have been many, including myself, that made the wrong assumptions about the set.

I've never pretended to know what future of the 10188 or 75159 would be.  Whatever information I stated was based on experience and history and my own personal wish list.  Obviously with this set, trends or history mean nothing.  The set sells a lot, that's why it's still around.  I always thought it was an iconic set, but not much to my taste.  I thought the potential for growth was strong if the remake was different enough not to compete with stockpiled 10188s.  Obviously, that is shot to sh*t, so on to the next set.  

I think many of us assumed the same things and thought there was no way LEGO would remake another Death Star with 40 year old characters and ideas.  I'm sure there were people who foresaw this. Good for them. On any given day, there are dozens of different opinions around here and other forums and most are wrong, including most of mine.  What  I do know for a fact is LEGO is constantly changing the "unwritten" rules and policies and what used to be easy to predict, is no longer that.  

Uh, this isn't true now is it Ed? I really don't want to get into an argument here as I currently don't have time to even start posting on a routine basis due to my schedule for one; and two, in all honestly debating with this forum is almost akin to banging my head against a brick wall and then waking up realizing that the time could have been better spent.

I have nothing against you or the forum aside from the fact that a lot of people here are analyzing the so called speculative nature of Lego from an EMOTIONAL standpoint and not one of logic. That being said, you don't remember that you had stated that this set will sell for 4 TIMES ITS RETAIL PRICE of $400? DO I HAVE TO FIND THE EXACT QUOTE? We already had this conversation.

Honestly guys, read through this thread. My comments about market saturation were exactly almost a carbon copy of what was said here and a lot of you (NOT ALL) disagreed with the assessment...but now some of my critics seem to completely agree? Hmm...

Would did you think was going to happen?

In conclusion, Lego speculation (you call it investing) is NOT dead, but it is getting a lot harder and will be harder going forward.

Always remember: "On a long enough time line the survival rate of EVERYTHING goes to ZERO.

 

 

[waddamon]

So when might we get an official  release, to actually see this pile of poo?  Not leaked pics.

[exciter1]

13 minutes ago, waddamon said:

So when might we get an official  release, to actually see this pile of poo?  Not leaked pics.

The rumor mill has been saying September 1.

[KShine]

3 hours ago, Vinetu said:

Yes, I'm quite sure you are referring to the tremendous value its minifigs will command now... </sarcasm>

My post wasn't ridiculous, hyperbolic perhaps, but I don't really wish to pursue this any further...

You are the one who brought up this nonsense, a year and 3 months later (which is ridiculous).

I suppose that you are unaware of the value of retired minifigs (in new condition). The new version is disappointing, but I have made profit from the 10188, and will still make a profit from it. Not as much perhaps as I had hoped, but still a profit.

This decision by LEGO was not to be expected by anyone without inside info. It was an absurd idea to do it (outside the character of their previous actions), but they did it anyway.

[Ed Mack]

Uh, this isn't true now is it Ed? I really don't want to get into an argument here as I currently don't have time to even start posting on a routine basis due to my schedule for one; and two, in all honestly debating with this forum is almost akin to banging my head against a brick wall and then waking up realizing that the time could have been better spent.

I have nothing against you or the forum aside from the fact that a lot of people here are analyzing the so called speculative nature of Lego from an EMOTIONAL standpoint and not one of logic. That being said, you don't remember that you had stated that this set will sell for 4 TIMES ITS RETAIL PRICE of $400? DO I HAVE TO FIND THE EXACT QUOTE? We already had this conversation.

Honestly guys, read through this thread. My comments about market saturation were exactly almost a carbon copy of what was said here and a lot of you (NOT ALL) disagreed with the assessment...but now some of my critics seem to completely agree? Hmm...

Would did you think was going to happen?

In conclusion, Lego speculation (you call it investing) is NOT dead, but it is getting a lot harder and will be harder going forward.

Always remember: "On a long enough time line the survival rate of EVERYTHING goes to ZERO.

 

 

Are you really still here? Why don't you write what I really said? I said it could be $1500 set or. $600 set, it all depends on the remake. You are such an ass.

[Vinetu]

16 minutes ago, KShine said:

You are the one who brought up this nonsense, a year and 3 months later (which is ridiculous).

I suppose that you are unaware of the value of retired minifigs (in new condition). The new version is disappointing, but I have made profit from the 10188, and will still make a profit from it. Not as much perhaps as I had hoped, but still a profit.

This decision by LEGO was not to be expected by anyone without inside info. It was an absurd idea to do it (outside the character of their previous actions), but they did it anyway.

First line - matter of perspective.

Second line - I run a relatively large BL store, I must truly be unaware of what minifig commands higher prices...

Third line - Well, how to put it diplomatically, you are plain out WRONG. I for one have expected it (or at the very least considered it a serious possibility, see my posts from back then), and boy, do I not have any inside info. But I am good with analysis and I know a thing or two about strategy. Which in turn allows you to read between the lines and guess "opponent's" moves...

Edited August 23, 2016 by Vinetu

[KShine]

3 minutes ago, Vinetu said:

First line - matter of perspective.

Second line - I run a relatively large BL store, I must truly be unaware of what minifig commands higher prices...

Third line - Well, how to put it diplomatically, you are plain out WRONG. I for one have expected it (or at the very least considered it a serious possibility, see my posts from back then), and boy, do I not have any inside info. But I am good with analysis and I know a thing or two about strategy. Which in turn allows you to read between the lines and guess "opponent's" moves...

First line - Yes, from the perspective of the ridiculous.

Second line - Than you should certainly already know that I am correct.

Third line - You are clearly the most brilliant person I have ever met. (I would state sarcasm, but I will assume that your gifted insight will allow you to read into that).

[Will 4]

How dare people on this forum disagree with my opinion and also claim to be the smarter than me I must argue with them everywhere and never read the comments they put unless replying sarcastically or placing a meme .

[Vinetu]

14 minutes ago, KShine said:

Second line - Than you should certainly already know that I am correct.

Yes, you are correct! I feel so enlightened... To garbage with you my P&L sheet! </discussion>

[Steve Brule]

 

Some things are really not funny and comparing the DS mess with real life historic tragedies it is out of place here IMHO. I'll leave it at that. I see mods have now taken care of this so no point in adding more wood to the flame. 

Wow. I thought it was more obvious. My entire post was a direct quote from The Godfather. I guess no one has a classical education these days.

[redcell]

9 hours ago, fossilrock said:

Sure, I agree, we all are making money on them.. But i'm not talking about last year, or the present. I'm thinking ahead here.  Not in the now, but in a few years... 

Slave 1 will be so overly hoarded and while it's a great set, it's going to have a few thousand resellers holding it to start.  I like the Sandcrawler, but slowly it's getting hoarded. If it goes past this year, forget it.  It will have more than 200 people selling it at the base when it goes EOL, and that's just at the surface, because there will be thousands of others that have it waiting to list it at some other point...  Ewok Village is already sitting at 150 some sellers on amazon.  If it does go EOL this year, it's going to be like so many sets last year, and maybe even worse, and will not be profitable for all but those that used a lot of points, and bought at a discount. 

When sets get that high in the number of sellers that have them, just like last year, they don't move and sit at basically a few profit margin above RRP for what's going to seem like years.. .  There's so many others anymore.  At that point, it's just volume that will win the game.  Last year, the AT-AT's, Cantinas, and ISD's were a bit of a "surprise retirement" so many didn't stock those in time.  This year, I don't see that as much.  Already, there are more IST's than there were AT-AT's and ISD's this phase in the game.  Just sayin'...

I agree, that buying at walmart's 50% discount is an easy way to make decent money.  And that's going to be about the only way to do it at this point.

I have heard this refrain for many many years...all is well in the present and past, but the future is a looming disaster.  Although things have changed, I have never seen any of the disasters that have been predicted.  I don't disagree that the SW exclusives will be stinkers.  I have some EVs, but no Slave 1s or Sandcrawlers and that isn't going to change.  I'm done with exclusives across the board.  That end of the market is oversaturated with resellers and I don't see that changing any time soon.   

[dcdfan]

Wow. I thought it was more obvious. My entire post was a direct quote from The Godfather. I guess no one has a classical education these days.

That's hysterical. I thought you'd lost your mind.

[redcell]

1 hour ago, ironbrick said:

 

Always remember: "On a long enough time line the survival rate of EVERYTHING goes to ZERO.

 

It's such a shame that time line can't be accelerated selectively.

[Sprocket77]

28 minutes ago, Will 4 said:

How dare people on this forum disagree with my opinion and also claim to be the smarter than me I must argue with them everywhere and never read the comments they put unless replying sarcastically or placing a meme .

Ooh Ooh Ooh, love a good sarcastic meme 

[gregpj]

34 minutes ago, Sprocket77 said:

Ooh Ooh Ooh, love a good sarcastic meme 

How about obvious ones?

People can't expect to post rubbish and not be told it's rubbish. That's not how the internet works.

[dcdfan]

9 hours ago, Bold-Arrow said:

Guess you are not showing up to the party then . More drinks for @dcdfan and I 

[biking_tiger]

It seems we've hit the anger stage...

They don't need to go in order. 

[Alpinemaps]

I'm just here to post a countdown...