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40139 - Gingerbread House


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Time to sell these might be right now (like literally right now, this afternoon) - lots of people will be receiving their BF orders from SAH in the next couple days and it could cause the online supply to spike and some undercutting to occur.  It's hard to imagine these being worth more in the future (next Christmas for example) than they are in this moment, but who knows...

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Nice try suckers! I sold my sets for $50-60 and put that back into 21031 Lego Birds! Who's laughing now!!! *tap tap*  Is this thing on?

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8 minutes ago, mfortunek said:

Time to sell these might be right now (like literally right now, this afternoon) - lots of people will be receiving their BF orders from SAH in the next couple days and it could cause the online supply to spike and some undercutting to occur.  It's hard to imagine these being worth more in the future (next Christmas for example) than they are in this moment, but who knows...

Just applying Supply/Demand economics, and with LEGO never making this set again, what, exactly, is your reasoning for this not to appreciate for next Christmas?

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People are selling them on amazon "backordered" a lot of them listed them for $59 or less (haven't been paying attention) and they sell out instantly when they get the buy box on accident. This is truly amazing to watch. I am a little worried about selling for too high and then getting stuck with a return

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4 minutes ago, Loghamel said:

Just applying Supply/Demand economics, and with LEGO never making this set again, what, exactly, is your reasoning for this not to appreciate for next Christmas?

Maybe next Christmas there will be some new super-cutesy Holiday set for everyone to drool over.  Right now buyers are motivated by the hype and the panic, thinking it's going to get even more expensive if they don't. Act. Right. This. Second. That's what is driving the price higher and higher every single day.

Once that wears off, logic and sanity will begin to seep back in to their brains and they will set a collective price limit they're willing to pay for a little 300 piece set. 

(I'll be honest I don't really know what's going to happen and I'm literally making this up as I type. Does it sound convincing?)

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4 minutes ago, mfortunek said:

Maybe next Christmas there will be some new super-cutesy Holiday set for everyone to drool over.  Right now buyers are motivated by the hype and the panic, thinking it's going to get even more expensive if they don't. Act. Right. This. Second. That's what is driving the price higher and higher every single day.

Once that wears off, logic and sanity will begin to seep back in to their brains and they will set a collective price limit they're willing to pay for a little 300 piece set. 

(I'll be honest I don't really know what's going to happen and I'm literally making this up as I type. Does it sound convincing?)

Yeah, good explanation.  At least with this one, I would think there wouldn't be another production run next year, being that  "2015 Limited Edition" is embossed on the box.

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9 minutes ago, Loghamel said:

Yeah, good explanation.  At least with this one, I would think there wouldn't be another production run next year, being that  "2015 Limited Edition" is embossed on the box.

After this years Winter Toy Shop fiasco, it wouldn't surprise me if TLG decided to make the GBH the newest addition to the winter village theme in 2016.

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3 hours ago, mfortunek said:

Maybe next Christmas there will be some new super-cutesy Holiday set for everyone to drool over.  Right now buyers are motivated by the hype and the panic, thinking it's going to get even more expensive if they don't. Act. Right. This. Second. That's what is driving the price higher and higher every single day.

Once that wears off, logic and sanity will begin to seep back in to their brains and they will set a collective price limit they're willing to pay for a little 300 piece set. 

(I'll be honest I don't really know what's going to happen and I'm literally making this up as I type. Does it sound convincing?)

You mean the average buyer? Then you might be overestimating many people very much...

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3 hours ago, mfortunek said:

Maybe next Christmas there will be some new super-cutesy Holiday set for everyone to drool over.  Right now buyers are motivated by the hype and the panic, thinking it's going to get even more expensive if they don't. Act. Right. This. Second. That's what is driving the price higher and higher every single day.

Once that wears off, logic and sanity will begin to seep back in to their brains and they will set a collective price limit they're willing to pay for a little 300 piece set. 

(I'll be honest I don't really know what's going to happen and I'm literally making this up as I type. Does it sound convincing?)

I think you're right that the price will settle and is already at an unsustainable level. It was free with $99 purchase, so even though that opportunity is now gone, there is clearly a price ceiling below that for most buyers.

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3 hours ago, lazuli16 said:

After this years Winter Toy Shop fiasco, it wouldn't surprise me if TLG decided to make the GBH the newest addition to the winter village theme in 2016.

I'm betting next year we get that Sweet Shoppe that was rumored this year.  It goes perfect with all the candy running through GBH and HT.  Now, if the GBH (and HT) end up pairing beautifully with the theoretical release next year, the price on these will only continue to rise...unless, of course, TLG re-releases the GBH promo next year, but this time with a slightly reworked roof and a sign out front that says "Gingerbread House." 

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Good thing people didn't have to spend their money on 10249 since they already had 10199. GBH took care of their annual "fix".

What concerns me is the average person thinking that GBH *is* this year's Christmas set and wanting to return it because it's not (e.g., it's so much smaller)

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7 minutes ago, Alpinemaps said:

 

What concerns me is the average person thinking that GBH *is* this year's Christmas set and wanting to return it because it's not (e.g., it's so much smaller)

I had one return request so far for the Holiday Train. No reason given yet other than it was "no longer wanted". Nothing for GBH, but I am concerned, as well. The price causes people to think they are getting more than they are....

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7 minutes ago, Alpinemaps said:  

What concerns me is the average person thinking that GBH *is* this year's Christmas set and wanting to return it because it's not (e.g., it's so much smaller)

I had one return request so far for the Holiday Train. No reason given yet other than it was "no longer wanted". Nothing for GBH, but I am concerned, as well. The price causes people to think they are getting more than they are....

Yes, that's exactly what I was trying to say. Just not saying it well. Lol

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51 minutes ago, bricketycricket said:

I think you're right that the price will settle and is already at an unsustainable level. It was free with $99 purchase, so even though that opportunity is now gone, there is clearly a price ceiling below that for most buyers.

opportunity not quite gone yet, i just snagged 2 

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Four more GBHs arrived today from my Shop at Home Cyber Monday orders.  I should have a couple more inbound.  This promo set has exceeded all expectations.  In 5 years of doing this I don't ever remember a holiday promo performing this well.  I now realize I should have ordered more.

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18 minutes ago, zskid00 said:

Four more GBHs arrived today from my Shop at Home Cyber Monday orders.  I should have a couple more inbound.  This promo set has exceeded all expectations.  In 5 years of doing this I don't ever remember a holiday promo performing this well.  I now realize I should have ordered more.

No doubt, and I sold several too low ($55 each, but still).  Getting too early had the opposite effect, compared to usual promos.  I'm just glad they're still flowing in.

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