75159 - UCS: Death Star (2016)

[gregpj]

This one is for you LEGO, inspired by @BrickLegacy and brought to you by Brickpickers everywhere.

[tacsniper]

1 hour ago, fossilrock said:

The best is probably the Sea Cow.

The best part is just few months ago, a few were saying this is one of the worst retired exclusives.

[gregpj]

1 hour ago, Vinetu said:

Well @Ed Mack, some of us perhaps haven't known for a fact, but nevertheless had quite a strong feeling what was the potential evolution for 10188. I am really not gloating here, I would just like to point out that some of the matter-of-fact criticism towards less experienced members of the board, that very prominent members of this forum are often prone to, is sometimes misplaced. Not to mention the zealous dismissal of just2good's reputation when he first registered.

DS was always an investment powder barrel, and apart perhaps @asharerin and @fossilrock everyone here was extremely aggressive in dismissing that statement without even a shred of self-doubt. I just hope we all have learned something from this: Gut feeling and (board) experience are no substitute for a proper risk/benefit analysis...  That's coming from a guy who stocked on 10 Super Cycle Chases for that matter (ok, 50% off), I was just never so assertive in saying that was THE investment providence we've all been waiting for  

Do you want a pat on the back or something? Because it does sound like it.

Most "prominent" board members also tell new and less experience investors about the potential risks (just not in these threads) and always tell people to make their own informed decisions (well, except for one very prominent member who has been pretty absent lately... long return lines I guess). So your criticism is very unfair with respect to the advice normally given.

We do however like to share our opinions, which can be wrong. Nobody is perfect.

I couldn't find the back patting smiling, so here you go just in case:

[BrickLegacy]

Amazon FBA US is at $500 (4 sellers).  Price matching race to the bottom.

[Bold-Arrow]

3 minutes ago, BrickLegacy said:

Amazon FBA US is at $500 (4 sellers).  Price matching race to the bottom.

Someone on local CL is selling for $425 

[legopocalypse]

3 hours ago, fossilrock said:

I get tired of hearing people say, "I have 60 of these and you should too because you'll be making a lot of money". 

You know what's more impressive.  The guy that says "I sold 60 of these and made 3x or more from what I paid for them within a 2 year cycle". 

He who has the most stock is not as impressive as he who sold through his stock and made a good profit at it.  Those that have the highest stock levels are not that impressive.  It just means at the end, you could be the biggest fool being stuck with a lot of sets that could in the end lose you money.
 

Exactly, having a ton of stock looks rather foolish especially when paying over retail like some do. Or telling everyone to buy or you'll miss the boat! I'm glad I didn't listen.

[BrickStanley74]

16 hours ago, jaisonline said:

Nuff said.
 

 

3 hours ago, pstebbing said:

That's Epic! This should be on the back.

 

 

Maybe this would be more fitting

[fossilrock]

I'm just going to throw this out here, because too many seem shell shocked from this, but as the dust starts to settle, I think it's evident the Star Wars line is hitting oversaturation.  I've said it before, and it can be tiring sounding like a broken record, but just with this years sets, there is not a lot of interesting investment potential in any of them.  Maybe the microfighters series 3 as a complete set will net you 2x in 2 years, but that's really the only ones I see, and only the completists that missed out on the first few waves will want them.

Let's look down the list from this year.

The two exclusives - Assault on Hoth and Death Star.  We all know what people think of them.  If Assault on Hoth retired within a year, those that stock it will win  - and probably win big.  If it goes more than 2 years, or stays out for 3 or 5 years, then forget it.   Death Star - well, we already have heard enough.

Let's look at the winter wave.  You have Leia's Resistance Transport, Battle of Takodana, Bespin's Carbonite Freezing Chamber, Droid Escape, Hoth Attack, Kanans Speeder Bike, and the Homing Spider Droid.  You also have 4 battle packs. 

Personally, out of all these sets, only the Resistance Transport, and the Bespin Carbonite Freezing Chamber jump out at me as potentially 2x sets within a year.  Kanans Speeder Bike could be a good risk, because I rarely if ever see that set anywhere.  It seems rather rare. 

I also like the Battle Packs, because some collectors love to army build.  They always will net you 2x if bought at a discount, but that's low hanging fruit, and it takes a lot to make decent money at them.  So, out of all those sets, Resistence Transport is probably my favorite when you way costs, time, and potential reward.  Followed by Kanan's Speeder Bike (although the set is rather useless and it's all about the minifigs).  Carbonite Freezing Chamber could be worth something, although the set isn't a home run in design, and Boba Fett is no longer a sure bet, and he's showing up in just about a new set a year.  He's in next year's Desert Skiff, which was last released in 2012.

Battle of Takodana could be an ok bet, but Kylo will surely be made in many sets, and Finn is probably not a big enough selling point.  I like the look of the set, but it's not that special.  Maz would obviously be the only reason to hoard this one, and that's only if she doesn't appear in any more movies, and they don't make her again, which is very doubtful.  At best you have a 2 to 3 year window on this one if it retires this year.

Out of the Summer wave sets, I personally don't like any of them as an investment.  The only possible set would be Dengar's Eclipse Fighter, and at best the Jakkuu set because at least it's somewhat unique.  But the freemaker adventures is a crappy show, and I don't see that following in even the Rebels footprint.  I think those sets will just be duds, although the Dengar minifigure is kind of special.  But, that's what is happening now.  Lego is now just selling and serving up mostly crap just to sell us minifigures.  So many sets now just seem to be poor designs, but they have this exclusive minfigure we haven't had in a while.  At that point is it worth buying a set for 40 to 80.00 to get one figure?  Probably not.  As an investment, i'd say that becomes risky.

Now we have the Rogue One sets.  Out of all those sets, and granted, I haven't seen the movie - the only set that jumps out at me as an investment would be the U-wing because out of the gates it has a great lineup of key mini's and a decent new vehicle design.  That's it. The AT-TE will be done again, although the Baze figure is a selling point too.  The tank, while interesting is not "iconic", nor are the tank troopers, and i'm not sold on Magic Stick Man just yet.  Krennic's Shuttle has potential, I suppose, but only if it's short released and this movie is memorable and considered one of the best star wars films made.  It reminds me of a cross between the Tydirium Shuttle and Kylo Renns ship.  I also think the Tie Striker is just another Tie Fighter variant.  Those are getting old, and there's nothing in that set that screams "winner" over a 2 to 3 year period judging from previous versions of Tie's and their sell through rate. 

The Rogue One is a critically panned dud, or on par with something out of the prequel era, then I don't like these as investments as much. 

So, with that said, that's my take.  We have hit the critical saturation point in the Star Wars theme.  We knew this would happen, and it was predicted by many here as Disney came into power, and started cranking these out on a yearly basis.  By the time Episode 9 rolls around, it might be time for Disney to take a 10 year break from Star Wars, but I doubt they will.  Hence, we will see depreciating results with each additional year these films go on.

Edited August 22, 2016 by fossilrock

[biking_tiger]

23 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

  Lego is now just selling and serving up mostly crap just to sell us minifigures.  So many sets now just seem to be poor designs, but they have this exclusive minfigure we haven't had in a while.  

So, SW is the new SH line? No surprise there. 

[gbg108]

2 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

I'm just going to throw this out here, because too many seem shell shocked from this...

Well that certainly describes me. It's been, what like 3 days since the picture leaked and I still don't understand it. With the endless possibilities that LEGO pieces allow I just can't wrap my head around why the the most expensive set available for sale for the foreseeable future would be a refresh. 

I have to tip my cap to anyone who saw it coming because even now that I know it's happening and I still don't get it.

 

 

[inversion]

2 minutes ago, biking_tiger said:

So, SW is the new SH line? No surprise there. 

Worse. SH movies are based on established stories with a following. Disney SW is totally new, no solid material to base the stories upon that is relatively widely known.  There is a certain threshold past which a Vader mask, stormtroopers and a few X-Wings just can't carry you anymore. You need substance and from what I see it is lacking in current releases.  EP7 was regarded highly due to its visuals and ringing nostalgic bells. That is fine. But can't do that forever.

[fossilrock]

9 minutes ago, gbg108 said:

Well that certainly describes me. It's been, what like 3 days since the picture leaked and I still don't understand it. With the endless possibilities that LEGO pieces allow I just can't wrap my head around why the the most expensive set available for sale for the foreseeable future would be a refresh. 

I have to tip my cap to anyone who saw it coming because even now that I know it's happening and I still don't get it.

Looking back at that time period, it was pretty evident when it was rumored that the current Death Star was going to be retired, and a new one would take it's place that the red light should have flashed in people's heads.  It's not like the warning signs were not there.  It's just some get blinded by the cult of buying. 

I don't want to see people go bankrupt, but on the same token.  It was evident that when the rumors were circulating that a new death star was imminent, that the old one would not be as valuable as some predicted.  But, none of us thought they would just serve up the same set.  I think many of us were expecting something a lot more advanced.  That hasn't panned out, and in my opinion this makes the entire situation even worse.

[biking_tiger]

1 minute ago, inversion said:

Worse. SH movies are based on established stories with a following. Disney SW is totally new, no solid material to base the stories upon that is relatively widely known.  There is a certain threshold past which a Vader mask, stormtroopers and a few X-Wings just can't carry you anymore. You need substance and from what I see it is lacking in current releases.  EP7 was regarded highly due to its visuals and ringing nostalgic bells. That is fine. But can't do that forever.

I had a conversation with my thirteen-year-old son yesterday regarding Marvel SH movies and the history behind the material. Marvel and DC have decades of prime storytelling to draw from. Disney cleared the slate of "non-canon" material and left us with a pretty husk (Ep7). The best SW stories still left as "canon" come from Dave Filoni's projects (Clone Wars and Rebels). 

[zskid00]

Star Wars was really strong last year, obviously riding the hype train for Episode 7.  I definitely wouldn't write them off any time soon.  You are right to be cautious fossilrock with the smaller window between some of the re-releases and lackluster sets, but there have been many Star Wars sets in the past that I didn't care for that have surprised me and performed well post-retirement.

Edited August 22, 2016 by zskid00

[biking_tiger]

2 minutes ago, zskid00 said:

Star Wars was really strong last year, obviously riding the hype train for Episode 7.  I definitely wouldn't write them off any time soon though.  You are right to be cautious fossilrock with the smaller window between some of the re-releases and lackluster sets, but there have been many sets that I didn't care for that have surprised me and performed well post-retirement.

If this was easy, everyone would do it. Wait...

Crap. 

Edited August 22, 2016 by biking_tiger

[KShine]

1 minute ago, biking_tiger said:

I had a conversation with my thirteen-year-old son yesterday regarding Marvel SH movies and the history behind the material. Marvel and DC have decades of prime storytelling to draw from. Disney cleared the slate of "non-canon" material and left us with a pretty husk (Ep7). The best SW stories still left as "canon" come from Dave Filoni's projects (Clone Wars and Rebels). 

I know that it is the minority opinion of most BP members, but I would love to see more Clone Wars material - Filoni, and team are great.

 

[fossilrock]

5 minutes ago, zskid00 said:

Star Wars was really strong last year, obviously riding the hype train for Episode 7.  I definitely wouldn't write them off any time soon though.  You are right to be cautious fossilrock with the smaller window between some of the re-releases and lackluster sets, but there have been many sets that I didn't care for that have surprised me and performed well post-retirement.

That's true..  I look at the Droid Gunship, GG Wheelbike, and T-16, and a lot of the expanded universe sets from 2012-13 as some of those examples from the last few years.  Easily, if you bought those when they were at discount on amazon, or even at walmart on clearance, you doubled your money within a few months.  That could happen again this holiday season, and i'm definitely going to watch amazon prices like a hawk as we go through it again. 

I just think we are hitting that point.  The sets seem too similar, even the Rogue One sets seem similar to Force Awakens.

Although, I think we can't really judge the Force Awakens line until 2018 when the Force Friday for Episode 8 has come and gone, and the movie hits.  It could very well spur people's nostalgia and they will want what will be retired Force Awakens sets.  I'm slightly weighing that as a scenario too.  But, if some of the Force Awakens sets are just rehashed, or just have a minor update, then that's going to be a telltale sign that the magic is going away.

I'd say last November thru January, it was an awesome time to sell retired Star Wars sets.

[gbg108]

3 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

Looking back at that time period, it was pretty evident when it was rumored that the current Death Star was going to be retired, and a new one would take it's place that the red light should have flashed in people's heads.  It's not like the warning signs were not there.  It's just some get blinded by the cult of buying. 

I don't want to see people go bankrupt, but on the same token.  It was evident that when the rumors were circulating that a new death star was imminent, that the old one would not be as valuable as some predicted.  But, none of us thought they would just serve up the same set.  I think many of us were expecting something a lot more advanced.  That hasn't panned out, and in my opinion this makes the entire situation even worse.

I honestly didn't even buy that many (I have seven) because I was never convinced a play set would appreciate the way display sets do. Plus, I agree there was a very real possibility that the next DS would be another play set which would further limit growth potential. So I bought a few, but I'm much more heavily invested in other sets. So that part of the equation all makes sense to me.

But when it became clear that 75159 was just a re-release of 10188 is the part where my head turns into a Jet commercial. I just don't get the logic.

[Darth_Raichu]

27 minutes ago, gbg108 said:

 

I have to tip my cap to anyone who saw it coming because even now that I know it's happening and I still don't get it.

 

 

I just needed to follow what my tea leaves divination showed me.  No explanation was necessary.

[Ed Mack]

3 hours ago, Vinetu said:

Well @Ed Mack, some of us perhaps haven't known for a fact, but nevertheless had quite a strong feeling what was the potential evolution for 10188. I am really not gloating here, I would just like to point out that some of the matter-of-fact criticism towards less experienced members of the board, that very prominent members of this forum are often prone to, is sometimes misplaced. Not to mention the zealous dismissal of just2good's reputation when he first registered.

DS was always an investment powder barrel, and apart perhaps @asharerin and @fossilrock everyone here was extremely aggressive in dismissing that statement without even a shred of self-doubt. I just hope we all have learned something from this: Gut feeling and (board) experience are no substitute for a proper risk/benefit analysis...  That's coming from a guy who stocked on 10 Super Cycle Chases for that matter (ok, 50% off), I was just never so assertive in saying that was THE investment providence we've all been waiting for  

 

 

 

 

Let's take a step back...who are you and what did I do to you?  I don't believe I bad mouthed just2good or you.  Maybe I did.  Who knows?  If I did, I apologize.  I'm sure some of us "elitist A-holes" probably pissed some quality members off and they left.  I don't know just2good from this site.  Seems to have legit insider information.  Must work for the company or is close to someone who is.  That's cool with me.  You know the internet, it's not for the faint of heart and sometimes there is collateral damage.  

As for all of us knowing about what the 75159 would be, well, I was saying it in a facetious way.  It hard to pick up sarcasm on the internet.  I assumed LEGO would have done something special with the new version.  I was wrong and overestimated LEGO's creativity and willingness to "go for it."  The 10188 has been a focus around here since we started this site and there have been many, including myself, that made the wrong assumptions about the set.

I've never pretended to know what future of the 10188 or 75159 would be.  Whatever information I stated was based on experience and history and my own personal wish list.  Obviously with this set, trends or history mean nothing.  The set sells a lot, that's why it's still around.  I always thought it was an iconic set, but not much to my taste.  I thought the potential for growth was strong if the remake was different enough not to compete with stockpiled 10188s.  Obviously, that is shot to sh*t, so on to the next set.  

I think many of us assumed the same things and thought there was no way LEGO would remake another Death Star with 40 year old characters and ideas.  I'm sure there were people who foresaw this. Good for them. On any given day, there are dozens of different opinions around here and other forums and most are wrong, including most of mine.  What  I do know for a fact is LEGO is constantly changing the "unwritten" rules and policies and what used to be easy to predict, is no longer that.  

[Val-E]

1 hour ago, fossilrock said:

I'm just going to throw this out here, because too many seem shell shocked from this, but as the dust starts to settle, I think it's evident the Star Wars line is hitting oversaturation.  I've said it before, and it can be tiring sounding like a broken record, but just with this years sets, there is not a lot of interesting investment potential in any of them.  Maybe the microfighters series 3 as a complete set will net you 2x in 2 years, but that's really the only ones I see, and only the completists that missed out on the first few waves will want them.
 

I was thinking the same today. The only TFA sets I see potential in are the MF and X wings because they are intextricably linked to the OT. None of the others will do well after retirement when based on RRP - my doubta are the poseable figures and microfigthers as they are collectibles from a set.

Even if I am wrong, the performance of the non OT related TFA sets needs to be followed closely as it will give an idea as to what we can expect from the Rogue One sets next year.

[Ed Mack]

5 hours ago, fossilrock said:

I get tired of hearing people say, "I have 60 of these and you should too because you'll be making a lot of money". 

You know what's more impressive.  The guy that says "I sold 60 of these and made 3x or more from what I paid for them within a 2 year cycle". 

He who has the most stock is not as impressive as he who sold through his stock and made a good profit at it.  Those that have the highest stock levels are not that impressive.  It just means at the end, you could be the biggest fool being stuck with a lot of sets that could in the end lose you money.
 

If you are referring to emazers, he does sell his sets.  If you are referring to me, I am the first person to tell members that my method of stockpiling is not the most efficient or productive method of LEGO investing.  

[Bold-Arrow]

I guess we reached the  stage 

[Darth_Raichu]

7 minutes ago, Bold-Arrow said:

I guess we reached the  stage 

[TheOrcKing]

8 minutes ago, Bold-Arrow said:

I guess we reached the  stage 

Well that does it. I'm outta here.

[Calli]

damn this thread is keeping me busy