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Speculate which recently retiring set will be the first to hit 5x RRP?


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small sets matter and are quite proper to include.  selling something through fulfilled by amazon , these smaller sets sold on a much larger volume basis offer much greater profit, little profit risk

My wife and I went to Game Stop recently and found a treasure (10+) of Dimensions Green Arrow Polybags. The cashier said they'd been sitting there forever and wished they were gone , so we gladly obli

I love the small/medium sets. Easy to store a high quantity, easy to pack up & ship, plus the no worry super low postage costs. Large sets are a complete pain (from buying, to storing, to pac

The original poster Asked about sets. Plus the item needs to have had (or have a) retail price. Many promo sets and polybags are free with a specified purchase.

 

In that case, I will amend my answer by saying any set retiring starting 2014 forward will take 5+ years to get to 5x MSRP and my BS meter just cannot predict that far ahead :P

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My opinion:

the biggest chance to high percentage rise (5xRRP and more) have small sets - because if something has offcial price for example EUR 10, it is easy for many people to pay 60 or 70 for it. But it is hard to pay 5 x EUR 400 for SSD - it is EUR 2000 ! It is a price for UCS falcon, which is more iconic and from the age without many investors. Thatswhy my favorite is RI, which can reach EUR 100 - even now it is on 2xRRP.

Other favorites:

TH - it can reach very fast 2-3x RRP (faster than other sets, since it disappeared suddenly), but then the rise will be slow...but it is a hot favorite for 5xRRP (I agree with reasons from first page). The factor of sudden EOL is very strong + it is part of extremly popular modular serie!

HH - very hot favorit - it has some advantages from TH - it contains original figures + it is EXTREMLY original - such similar set will never come back again! You can easy build a modular same or similar to TH, but not HH. The factor of presence of original figs is very important when we are talking about favorites to 5xRRP - because it limits possibilities to build such set from bricks bought from th bricklink.

Strong results are expected also from VW (not 5xRRP, but 3xRRP is real), Fire Brigade, Tower Bridge.

 

I dont believe to these candidates from this discussion:

R2D2 - i dont believe to this set at all. It looks like duplo building, dont have figs, can be easy rebuild from bricklink.

Tumbler - also I dont believe to this set as a favorite to extrem rise after EOL. Batman and other heroes sets are very limited to American market, since comics heroes are not so popular in Europe. In our shops are sets with batman, iron man, etc selling very poor. Also this set is very expensive (I cannot imagine how can somebody pay EUR 1000 for it). Several years ago there was much more iconic set - batmobile - but the rise of the price was very slow.

 

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From the US Standpoint I cannot disagree more about R2 and the Tumbler.

But that is the US and Europe is different.

 

Also I find it interesting so many people love the VW T1 on both sides of the pond.

On eBay it is a slow mover.  I priced mine with free shipping below MSRP as I wanted out and into some other things I like better.

It took a month for mine to sell even below MSRP during the Christmas season.

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My opinion:

the biggest chance to high percentage rise (5xRRP and more) have small sets - because if something has offcial price for example EUR 10, it is easy for many people to pay 60 or 70 for it. But it is hard to pay 5 x EUR 400 for SSD - it is EUR 2000 ! It is a price for UCS falcon, which is more iconic and from the age without many investors. Thatswhy my favorite is RI, which can reach EUR 100 - even now it is on 2xRRP.

Other favorites:

TH - it can reach very fast 2-3x RRP (faster than other sets, since it disappeared suddenly), but then the rise will be slow...but it is a hot favorite for 5xRRP (I agree with reasons from first page). The factor of sudden EOL is very strong + it is part of extremly popular modular serie!

HH - very hot favorit - it has some advantages from TH - it contains original figures + it is EXTREMLY original - such similar set will never come back again! You can easy build a modular same or similar to TH, but not HH. The factor of presence of original figs is very important when we are talking about favorites to 5xRRP - because it limits possibilities to build such set from bricks bought from th bricklink.

Strong results are expected also from VW (not 5xRRP, but 3xRRP is real), Fire Brigade, Tower Bridge.

 

I dont believe to these candidates from this discussion:

R2D2 - i dont believe to this set at all. It looks like duplo building, dont have figs, can be easy rebuild from bricklink.

Tumbler - also I dont believe to this set as a favorite to extrem rise after EOL. Batman and other heroes sets are very limited to American market, since comics heroes are not so popular in Europe. In our shops are sets with batman, iron man, etc selling very poor. Also this set is very expensive (I cannot imagine how can somebody pay EUR 1000 for it). Several years ago there was much more iconic set - batmobile - but the rise of the price was very slow.

 

I agree with you fully except for the R2 and Super Heroes. R2 will do good. Just it has not yet fully disappeared from the shops. Super Heroes's popularity is on the rise in Europe. Especially after the Dark Knight Trilogy. We are flooded with new super heroes movies and series which are all very good. I believe it is better to stock up on those sets despite the fakes from China.

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From the US Standpoint I cannot disagree more about R2 and the Tumbler.

But that is the US and Europe is different.

 

Also I find it interesting so many people love the VW T1 on both sides of the pond.

On eBay it is a slow mover.  I priced mine with free shipping below MSRP as I wanted out and into some other things I like better.

It took a month for mine to sell even below MSRP during the Christmas season.

 

All depends on how long T1 will remain in production. Future prospects will shrink with every day this set stays unretired.

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I dont believe to these candidates from this discussion:

R2D2 - i dont believe to this set at all. It looks like duplo building, dont have figs, can be easy rebuild from bricklink.

Tumbler - also I dont believe to this set as a favorite to extrem rise after EOL. Batman and other heroes sets are very limited to American market, since comics heroes are not so popular in Europe. In our shops are sets with batman, iron man, etc selling very poor. Also this set is very expensive (I cannot imagine how can somebody pay EUR 1000 for it). Several years ago there was much more iconic set - batmobile - but the rise of the price was very slow.

Batman has always been popular in Belgium. Superman less.

Iron Man gained great popularity due to the good movies.

Avengers and other superheroes are less known but I wouldn't let superheroes sets pass as investment if I were you. Some popular movies still coming out and it will sell for profit, no doubt in my mind about it.

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5 x RRP is a tough nut to crack nowadays, but going off say the sets which retired in the last 12 months, I'd say (thinking outside the box) the Mine has a possibility, Golden dragon will most likely I mean it's already more than double RRP, TH due to the fact it caught everyone off guard, RI is kinda a given and maybe the first being so cheap and so easy to hit 5 x RRP compared to larger sets and wait for it......... friends rehearsal stage I know it's not technically gone yet but it basically is and I have great faith in this set. Best indicators will be next Jan when people who can't wait that long for some sort of return, have unloaded their sets and we can witness the aftermath on eBay/Amazon. This is all going off the UK/EU market.

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5 x RRP is a tough nut to crack nowadays, but going off say the sets which retired in the last 12 months, I'd say (thinking outside the box) the Mine has a possibility, Golden dragon will most likely I mean it's already more than double RRP, TH due to the fact it caught everyone off guard, RI is kinda a given and maybe the first being so cheap and so easy to hit 5 x RRP compared to larger sets and wait for it......... friends rehearsal stage I know it's not technically gone yet but it basically is and I have great faith in this set. Best indicators will be next Jan when people who can't wait that long for some sort of return, have unloaded their sets and we can witness the aftermath on eBay/Amazon. This is all going off the UK/EU market.

You mean 4204-1 going 69.99

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  • 2 weeks later...

My sleeper pick: Birds (21301).  Great little set, $45 MSRP.  I can easily see this going to $200+, or higher if a series-2 gets released.  Theme is very much AFOL, and future AFOL fans will want this, very much.  It's been an instant sell-out at the stores, and stock is low.  For the very reasons that many here overlook it, that gives it that much more of a chance to be non-hoarded and hence rare upon EOL.

Edited by diablo2112
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  • 3 weeks later...
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Research Institute.  Nearly got there on the first go around.  With the second series to be approved and released and probably standardized into Lego group as the vingettes vs minifig series.  .... x5 is easily striking distance. 

 

Plus storing RI is a lot easier than it was for Taj and Ult MF.  -- sold my last ones in 2014--Taj was best large set ROI.  

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I remember 5-10 years ago when sets would consistently hit 2x MSRP immediately after EOL, not it takes quite a while for many sets to do this. I think that putting 5x MSRP on the radar for a large exclusive set is a poor strategy these days. Looking at some of the star performers of the past 4 years, this isn't a realistic thing to shoot for....

 

10210 Imperial Flagship is at 3.9x MSRP

10194 Emerald Night is at 4.3x MSRP

10212 Imperial Shuttle is at 2.3x MSRP

10222 Winter Village Post office is at 3x MSRP 

 

These are all sets that could be trending at well over 5x MSRP if they retired a few years before they did. However, seeing how they have retired 2-3 years ago and investment has grown even more popular since then, I would expect the returns going forward to be even slimmer. Right now, I am hoping for sets to hit 2x their MSRP if I was able to get them decently discounted, that way, I can hope to get roughly the MSRP of straight profit back, but this is a hard nut to crack across the board. 

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Chi Lion Temple is already at more than 3xMSRP if German EBay data on the BP database is to be believed. I believe it is the only set officially retired in the last 6 months to have done that after retiring.

Edited by valenciaeric
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  • 1 month later...

I'd say the Red Five X-Wing... Although not retired it's coming close.

maybe even the millennium falcon, especially with the new movie coming out.

I noticed the Wizard Battle, small little set has already hit 300% in a year.

How long are you all keeping the Rover? Think it'll go up any more?

Just curious, do most of ya'll just invest, or build and invest?

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  • 3 weeks later...

​Welcome to Brickpickers. Town Hall was $199.99, so where are you seeing it @ $1 K?

​In a crystal ball. It will be near that price around Xmas!

#70503

​Yes! Love this set! Sets like this are becoming scarcer and scarcer. Unfortunately. 

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