Jump to content

Speculate which recently retiring set will be the first to hit 5x RRP?


Recommended Posts

The LEGO company is the largest toy maker in the world.  There is still a lot of untapped fans not only in the US but around the world who might your stuff in the future.  I have bought current market value for Green Grocer, Market Street, etc.  There will be other adults like me who may want to buy HH, TH, SSD, or even an 6862 etc in the future and have the money to do so when they get hit with the Lego collecting bug! Of course back to the current question, I like limited productions sets like the Mars Rover going for 5X in the future as they were not available at the mass retailers like Walmart, Target, etc

I agree. China consumers has yet to join in the fun. These chinese are serious serial speculators; they can even hoard salt and garlic.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 199
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

small sets matter and are quite proper to include.  selling something through fulfilled by amazon , these smaller sets sold on a much larger volume basis offer much greater profit, little profit risk

My wife and I went to Game Stop recently and found a treasure (10+) of Dimensions Green Arrow Polybags. The cashier said they'd been sitting there forever and wished they were gone , so we gladly obli

I love the small/medium sets. Easy to store a high quantity, easy to pack up & ship, plus the no worry super low postage costs. Large sets are a complete pain (from buying, to storing, to pac

(...) it would be fun to speculate which of these sets will see the fastest price appreciation to the 5x RRP level.

Ouch... x5 RRP is very unlikely for any set from these days, because there are so much much more investors in 2014 compared to 2006...

 

So if we consider the recently retired sets (or "sold out" sets which may not come back) hmmm maybe the Research Institute I would say, for all the reasons we all know. And because it's way more easy and quick for a $20 set to reach $100 compared to a $200 set to reach $1000... WUT ??? It's back ? nevermind...

 

I can imagine the SSD getting the X3 RRP badge :) but that's it.

 

I don't see the the HH reach x5 RRP. I think it will top at x4 RRP (in about 5-6 years).

 

Maybe the TH... but it will take a lot of time, something like 7 or 8 years...

Edited by biniou
Link to post
Share on other sites

Based on people visiting my home. The Haunted House. It is the most popular set and even though the TH disapeared quickly, many people were 'stunned' that the HH went and didn't come back for halloween. It is part of a  series, but you don't need the rest of the series to display it.

Link to post
Share on other sites

If there is one set that will reach 5 x RRP it will be...

 

the Tumbler

 

Why?

 

1. Not easy to hoard

2. High pricepoint

3. Batman

4. Iconic and legendary vehicle

5. do I need to continue?

 

Furthermore I think TH and HH will do good. SSD (wish I bought more!) is already doing good.

 

Outsiders: ToO, R2-D2 and AA

 

 

Just my 0.02

Edited by Ciglione
Link to post
Share on other sites

I think TH has the best chance, according to Economics 101.

 

HH is an easy second - it's hard to predict how the demand stacks up vs. TH in the long run.

 

Unlikely:

 

SSD - it'll get there, but not nearly as fast as 10179

R2 - popular enough, but also fairly healthy supply-wise

ToO - if it's gone now, maybe. otherwise, nope

AA - might make it one day, never before the top of the list

Tumbler - um, not retired. If it was, then sure.

 

and the super dark-horses:

 

HE - It's a train. A train no one wants... until it's gone...

SOH - No one has any. See TH and HE comments.

 

And, on the completely outside chance that Santa's Workshop doesn't come back again, it rockets to the top of the list...

Edited by Grynn
Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, I suspect it would take so long for any big set to hit 5xRRP these days, that it might make more sense to sell at 3xRRP and reinvest.

But I'm still fairly new to this, so I don't know really. I'll probably keep one of my THs and SSDs indefinitely, just to have a stupidly expensive set in my collection, which would be nice.

Link to post
Share on other sites

If there is one set that will reach 5 x RRP it will be...

 

the Tumbler

 

Why?

 

1. Not easy to hoard

2. High pricepoint

3. Batman

4. Iconic and legendary vehicle

5. do I need to continue?

 

Yes but what if it's no more exclusive in 2015, and becomes widely available (toys'r us and co.) for the next 3 years ? That's my biggest fear about this set (ok, "fear" is not the right word...).

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes but what if it's no more exclusive in 2015, and becomes widely available (toys'r us and co.) for the next 3 years ? That's my biggest fear about this set (ok, "fear" is not the right word...).

 

It is all about timing... buy one every once in a while. Especially if there will be a sale. This will be a winner. Regardless its shelf life.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest davewager78

I don't think any set of note I.e. Large set with high MRSP will hit 5x within any timescale that an investor should be holding it for. Better in my eyes to sell for 2x or 3x and have the cash to buy the next soon-to-retire sets, to sell them at 2x to 3x. I'd rather hit 2x in 3 cycles than keep the same money tied in for one cycle hoping for 5x. After all, it's about making the most money possible, right, not clinging on to a set forever. Plus I would say the more a set's value goes up, the worse the financial heartache if the box gets damaged, or it gets lost in transit

Link to post
Share on other sites

 

I don't think any set of note I.e. Large set with high MRSP will hit 5x within any timescale that an investor should be holding it for. Better in my eyes to sell for 2x or 3x and have the cash to buy the next soon-to-retire sets, to sell them at 2x to 3x. I'd rather hit 2x in 3 cycles than keep the same money tied in for one cycle hoping for 5x. After all, it's about making the most money possible, right, not clinging on to a set forever. Plus I would say the more a set's value goes up, the worse the financial heartache if the box gets damaged, or it gets lost in transit

 

Makes sense what you write. Also the market for such high-priced sets will be thin.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest davewager78

My view is that we should consider the price-time curve. This begins at time = 0, with the set at MRSP. While the set is in production, the only deviations should be a drop in price at a sale event, or a peak at an event such as Xmas. At EOL, the curve spikes upwards quite quickly, but is likely to begin to plateau in gradient after. The part of the curve I want to ride is either:

(a) the time between just before EOL and the point approaching plateau

OR

(B) the time between the last sale event (i.e. Item available at below MRSP), and the same plateau as above

Continuing to hold items once they are in the slower growth phase years beyond EOL isn't part of my strategy.

Perhaps I'm drifting off topic...

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 3 weeks later...

If there is one set that will reach 5 x RRP it will be...

 

the Tumbler

 

Why?

 

1. Not easy to hoard

2. High pricepoint

3. Batman

4. Iconic and legendary vehicle

5. do I need to continue?

 

Furthermore I think TH and HH will do good. SSD (wish I bought more!) is already doing good.

 

Outsiders: ToO, R2-D2 and AA

 

 

Just my 

What has been the lowest price you guys have seen on the tumbler? 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest davewager78

As a counter point, which sets have previously hit 5x RRP? Taj Mahal? UCS MF?

 

Mainly interested in high price exclusives as answers. I don't think there are enough to justify the theory that there are going to be many more.

 

As i've said before, waiting until 5x RRP seems an odd strategy to me anyway

Link to post
Share on other sites

As a counter point, which sets have previously hit 5x RRP? Taj Mahal? UCS MF?

 

Mainly interested in high price exclusives as answers. I don't think there are enough to justify the theory that there are going to be many more.

 

As i've said before, waiting until 5x RRP seems an odd strategy to me anyway

Many in the past. Going from pretty much all the Batman 1 sets to many exclusives to The Zombies.

I think in the modern day of Lego investing, 3x MSRP might be the new goal to achieve. I see only a couple of sets that have 5x potential and it could a while. Town Hall, RI (again) and , Haunted House (depending on the Scooby Doo version), If the Ghostbusters set retired early, I think that would hit $200 because of the popularity and upcoming movie.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

5X MSRP is a lot, I think maybe a $20 architecture set has the highest potential to meet that.  But more likely it will be a set that flys under the radar.  The sets that are hoarded will never reach 5x MSRP.  There are way too many TH and FB out there for them to reach 5x MSRP anytime soon.  

Link to post
Share on other sites

I have 3 Town Hall (new, original sealed), is this a good investment for selling in one or two years?

 

No... these are bad investments... but I will take them of your hands for RRP. So you can invest the money in something better.

 

 

 

Just kidding... :cheese:  these are one of the best investments of 2014 in my book. Keep them for a rainy day.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.




×
×
  • Create New...