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21017 - Imperial Hotel


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7 minutes ago, pat_teeth_hurt said:

I don't know what to think.  All I know is that 21016 was retiring after a short run and not many people were getting excited about it.  Look at it now. 

Nothing short about IH´s run.

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32 minutes ago, pat_teeth_hurt said:

I don't know what to think.  All I know is that 21016 was retiring after a short run and not many people were getting excited about it.  Look at it now. 

Agreed with @Val-E, what ;)  

You are comparing an 8 month production run for 21016 at a time when most people were not holding sets NISB to 21017 which had a 2 year and 9 month production run and is still readily available at 5 of 6 BN within an hour radius of my BN Zip Code hunting grounds. 

If you assume, and this is a big assumption, equal production numbers per month you have over 4x more IH then Sung. I would actually think the number is hire based on what I saw on the shelf and  the greater number of venues that IH was available at. Don't get me wrong I picked up a few IH at .20 * .10 * (.10 - .20) but 3x MSRP 2 years after OOS not retirement is my best forecast. 

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39 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Nothing short about IH´s run.

True.  But based on the comment's here on popularity, it seems to be behaving similarly (not at the 700% return level, but possibly something still better than the norm).  I remember going to the Lego store in 2012 and they were asking me to buy as many 21016 as possible since no one else was.  I think the point to emphasize is that when a product is not selling well that may actually be a good sign of its future performance if certain other conditions are met.  I don't know how many IH's are out there with a run of 3 years - but I have yet to see a losing architecture set - as in not over 100% after 2 years.  In this case, maybe it'll double after 3 or 4 years since there is still inventory and not many people are buying.

As far as the short run impact, we probably won't see a 700% increase like 21016, but if people are looking for something under the radar, maybe this is one that will at least get them a double in a few years.  So buy it now while you can at retail.

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10 minutes ago, Pseudoty said:

Agreed with @Val-E, what ;)  

You are comparing an 8 month production run for 21016 at a time when most people were not holding sets NISB to 21017 which had a 2 year and 9 month production run and is still readily available at 5 of 6 BN within an hour radius of my BN Zip Code hunting grounds. 

If you assume, and this is a big assumption, equal production numbers per month you have over 4x more IH then Sung. I would actually think the number is hire based on what I saw on the shelf and  the greater number of venues that IH was available at. Don't get me wrong I picked up a few IH at .20 * .10 * (.10 - .20) but 3x MSRP 2 years after OOS not retirement is my best forecast. 

Val-E comments to avoid this at all costs.  I respectfully disagree.  My point of emphasis is the lack of popularity and adding the short run comment was to indicate that it probably won't be at the 700% return range.  And I agree with you that OOS (not retirement) is when the clock starts ticking on the appreciation given that there is still an inventory out there at retail - and getting to 3x MSRP 2 years after actually is higher than what I'd forecast, but who wouldn't want something 3x MSRP after 2 years?

So fellow BP'ers, buy these at retail while you can so we can get the clock ticking.  It sold out from BN online now, but can pick up some at BN stores.  Also, it's on Walmart.com at a 13% discount right now.

Maybe Val-E is right though and this will be the first loser in the Architecture series.  Time will tell.

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Farnsworth and Savoye were poor sellers discounted heavily on many occasions. Guggenheim too, I got it 50% off. Architecture series has unusual demand characteristics, I can only assume that its main buyers don't really browse LEGO stores and toy aisles. Inappropriate sales channels, I guess.

Edited by inversion
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1 minute ago, inversion said:

Farnsworth and Savoye were poor sellers discounted heavily on many occasions. Guggenheim too, I got it 50% off. Architecture series has unusual demand characteristics, I can only assume that its main buyers don't really browse LEGO stores and toy aisles. 

You're on to something.  I wish I had bought more of Guggenheim, Rockefeller, Farnsworth, etc, but I listened to BP comments about how the end of the world is near for the golden days of Lego and saw how they were always discounted heavily on Amazon and cut back a couple years ago, yet these sets have gone up 100% after a couple years even with all the attention to Lego investing.  (And if you purchased them all at a 50% discount, then you'd be up even higher than that.)

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In Europe (my market and that of the person who asled for advice) this is the only Architecture set at the present time not to have grown. Even SSN is doing better! Where things are in 3, 5 or ten years is anyone´s guess but I would certainly not sink 100 euros on one now, knowing how it has performed thus far. In 4 month´s time we will get a new round of retirements and special offers that should yield more cleare cut winners both for flippers and long term holders.

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56 minutes ago, Val-E said:

In Europe (my market and that of the person who asled for advice) this is the only Architecture set at the present time not to have grown. Even SSN is doing better! Where things are in 3, 5 or ten years is anyone´s guess but I would certainly not sink 100 euros on one now, knowing how it has performed thus far. In 4 month´s time we will get a new round of retirements and special offers that should yield more cleare cut winners both for flippers and long term holders.

The aspect about I think is that buying it for 100€ is still 20€ under retail price. Just selling it for the retail price would be an plus of 20%. I can't imagine that it will loose value under 100€.

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  • 3 months later...

I bought one of these at €100 a couple months back and really like it. I think this is one of those sets that will do well on Ebay in the next couple of years for people that like it as a display piece (non AFOLs). I might consider getting for more on bricklink for €110 each.

 

Fool or cool? :)

Edited by Legojona
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8 minutes ago, Legojona said:

I bought one of these at €100 a couple months back and really like it. I think this is one of those sets that will do well on Ebay in the next couple of years for people that like it as a display piece (non AFOLs). I might consider getting for more on bricklink for €110 each.

 

Fool or cool? :)

It’s still available in the UK at retail. That may delay EU growth for a while. 

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Yeah, this set has done nothing since it went last December. There was a Spanish seller on ebay last week selling them for €89 +shipping and had 10 available. Seems the listing has ended now, but it's easy enough to pick up at retail. Amazon UK have it for £104 with free UK shipping.

Edited by tractorboy
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Guest TabbyBoy

Even though this is a lovely set, I don't think it's iconic enough for investing in as only 0.01% or less have heard of it before LEGO starting making it! The White House on the other hand..... I've gone in VERY big on the White House as it's simply the most recognised of the lot.

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