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So there are 3 absolute No’s: Train, Ocean, Pirate and 2 possible Yes’s: the train station and mushroom. https://www.brothers-brick.com/2024/06/01/bricklink-designer-program-series-2-logging-railway-a-trial-of-timber-review/ https://www.tipsandbricks.co.uk/post/2409-set-review-bdp-series-2-mushroom-house

My understanding is the 501st got extended

I bought barad fur early this morning with gwp and at the time, I didn’t notice the limit but it was a limit of three. I wonder how many people grabbed a multiple copy of this. I also remember Lego limiting gwp to one per household. I guess we will see. I think they might do a bigger and a better version of fell-beast like Smaug in the lonely mountain set but the wing pieces may stay unique to this set as those pieces were puny compared to ones for Smaug.

Yep. I was initially all in on a day one purchase, then I decided to wait - I don't think the Fell Beast looks all that great - but then we happened to swing by the mall tonight and I popped over to the LEGO store and saw Barad Dur in person. I'll admit, if Fell Beast was still in stock tonight, I would have ordered as soon as I got home. Now I'll just wait, it's not like I have space for for the completed build anyways, but still, they had me hooked for an impulse buy for a bit there, but without the Beast, I'll wait...

A couple small deals at WalMart: 75345 501st BP (Yeah, I know) Regular $15.99 sell price plus get $2.50 WalMart cash back. https://www.walmart.com/ip/LEGO-Star-Wars-501st-Clone-Troopers-Battle-Pack-75345-Toy-Set-Buildable-AV-7-Anti-Vehicle-Cannon-4-Minifigures-Squadron-Collection-Great-Gift-Kids-Ag/1520961263 75361 Spider Tank. $39.99 regular sale price plus get 6.25 WalMart Cash back. https://www.walmart.com/ip/seort/1366923373 Cash back works only once per order on the Spider Tank but works 3x on the Battle Pack.

ChatGPT says "For Lego set 60304, the City Road Plates, the standard packaging quantity per case is 3 boxes. This information is consistent across multiple sources including BrickLink, where Lego enthusiasts and sellers provide detailed inventories and packaging details. If you're purchasing or planning to store these sets, you can expect each case to contain three individual Lego 60304 sets." But i have no first hand knowledge

I suspect it will freeze some sales for Barad Dur. Regardless it should have been included with the set to begin with though. Orthanc included a Treebeard and was a $200 set at the time of release. Lego is just greedy nowadays.

sorry.

I’m surprised there are so many people who want the set day one that also wouldn’t want the promo and would want to sell it, this set will probably be able to be had later for at least $100 off later and the goodfellas beast is gone for good.

Kind of wonder if it's the opposite -- genius instead of stupid. How many people will be thinking to themselves the next time a huge fan set is released with a good GWP tag along that they should have bought immediately. Then in the future for a similar release, impulse buy might just buy two instead of one at seeing the initial prices on the FB set. Also, next time, Lego decides to 1.5 - 2x the amount of GWP sets they make available. They know how many sales were made with the GWP for Barad Dur and how sales slow when it's no longer available. Am a little surprised that they didn't just back order them for VIPs through the weekend, although there could be some left for the non-VIPs(like 5 in the world?) for the 4th, but I doubt it. My local store was out in less than 90 minutes(I called), however that's a lot of space to take up for a single set. Then again, you could be right and they're just dumb

Yet Barad Dur is still in stock. The Fell Beast was the only reason to purchase first day. Kind of a dumb move on Lego not to have the same inventory on both sets for the initial release run.

Anyone know how many 60304 are in a case?

Fellasbeast seems done, plenty of water parks still available

Train station is a Modular!

Just sold 21127 The Fortress for $350 bought in November 2016 buy in was $96.49. Played the long game on this.

One day. But I usually pack and ship at 8am anything that has come in. Well we are brickpickers and it is the slow season

You guys got a lot of free time

What is your shipping time window? I wonder of the half that eBay is catching how many are actually from people contacting eBay to report the charge.

Raising prices is my usual mode of operation after each sale (I only list one set at a time) -- typically 2 to 5% after each sale -- scam or not. This is how I ensure I'm not falling behind the market price. I don't analyze the buyer to see if it is a scammer and then take advantage of the situation. The side effect for scammers is eventually they won't find the price attractive anymore and the move on to another source (they eventually do get out-priced which is ironic considering we're assuming it's not their money anyways). And once the dust settles, I might have to adjust the price back down to market prices after a few months to resume sales. Being knowingly complicit would be pricing at 2x the market rate knowing only the scammers are buying from you because, for some reason, they find your listings more attractive than the others. If they drive the price up 20% ($60 vs. $50) over the market rate, who's to say you weren't underpriced at $50 (maybe they hadn't sold in awhile and the fell down the ebay rankings) and now $60 is the market rate? I've seen sets that had no sales for months and when I priced compared, I was competitive, but just low on the rankings. Eventually, after a sale, the rankings improve and the set takes off. One alternative is I don't raise my prices -- since I never know if the next buyer will be a scammer or not -- and I end up suppressing the market price. Another alternative is I stop selling sets or double the price hoping they won't buy from me -- which makes even less sense. Third alternative is ***ebay needs to come up with a better fraud detection methodology*** Out of curiousity, I went back an analyzed the fraud charges for the year to date: orig CC sale sale dispute cancel date date date user set 05/29 !yet 05/29 (0) zeffs-91 #9* 04/30 05/07 05/11 (11) baira_4145 #8 03/13 None 03/28 (15) riskec_58 #7 03/10 03/22 03/28 (12) balich_45 #6 03/03 04/11 N/A *** #5 02/26 None 03/01 (4) dengal-9778 #5 02/21 02/25 N/A *** #6 02/05 None 02/08 (3) prewer-7290 #4 02/03 None 02/03 (0) karcza-97 #4* 02/02 None 02/02 (0) paten-8416 #5* 02/01 02/04 02/08 (7) yuenh46 #4 01/30 03/28 02/08 (9) selph_15 #4 01/30 None 02/08 (9) sorli-84 #4 01/29 None 01/29 (0) prawl_84 #5* 01/29 02/07 N/A beatt84** #4 01/28 02/21 N/A gibhuf-0** #4 01/28 None 02/08 (11) jabhec_0 #4 01/25 None 01/25 (0) lopau46 #5* 01/25 02/20 N/A unruec66** #4 01/24 02/03 02/08 (13) hudo_31 #4 01/23 02/01 N/A mysaks_3** #3 01/23 None 02/08 (16) sliter21 #4 01/12 02/07 02/08 (27) urbain35 #3 01/07 03/08 01/26 (19) aluise_29 #2 01/05 02/07 01/26 (21) nehlsg_93 #2 01/05 01/24 01/26 (21) linza-2 #2 01/03 None 01/26 (23) atkkat0 #1 (days from order until ebay cancelled the order) * Sale cancelled relatively quickly -- ebay detected fraud ** No-longer a registered user *** Still a registered user (hidden) 27 Cancelled orders or CC disputes 15 (56%) Orders cancelled by ebay before/without CC dispute 5 (19%) caught be ebay relatively quickly 6 (22%) cancelled (and removed buyer account) after CC dispute 4 (15%) users cancelled after CC dispute but sale never cancelled 10.5 days -- average time for ebay to cancel an order 13.8 days -- average time for ebay to cancel an order if not caught within 24 hours What I can take from this is that ebay is catching about half (56%) of the fraudulent orders, but only 19% are caught in my shipping time window. The rest take about two weeks. Some orders (15%) are never cancelled, but at some point the buyer's account was removed (I wasn't notified). The biggest batch of cancellations was around late January/early February. That's when it started to become apparent what was going on. I'm guessing that's when ebay at least started detecting more of the fraud and the rate slowed drastically after that. However, it is evident that some are still slipping through (5 since then -- the first one wasn't instant and took 8 hours to catch, after I shipped it).

Your mileage may vary but the last few big releases when just ordering one big set it seemed like Lego had some of these prepackaged and shipped them pretty quickly with Lightning Ship ontrac and I got them in about a week sometimes less. This was the case for me with the medeival market and the cantina on May the fourth.

Quick question. I usually go to the LEGO store for big Day 1 releases, but the amount of sets releasing tomorrow and the possibility of long lines has me debating going online instead. How long does it typically take LEGO to ship and deliver a set like Barad Dur on release day (assuming it’s ordered In Stock and not Backordered)? Anyone ever have issues with the GWP for In Stock orders?

I interpreted that as making sure you're not the lowest priced option to avoid being picked by the dropshippers. Is he supposed to remove the listing, hoping eBay solves the problem? This kind of seems like the only defense, while keeping the listing active. I realize we're splitting hairs here, but it seems better than remaining the most attractive target.

Thanks for clarifying. I forgot about the "raising prices" part of the discussion. That's truly insane. 30 in 4 days. I have eBay messages skip my inbox, and I didn't notice that I've had several of these myself, but not nearly at that scale.

Ahh, Found it. "The buyer’s payment institution sided with the buyer. The good news is that you’re protected for this dispute under eBay seller protection policy. We won't deduct the dispute amount from your funds. You're not required to take any action at this time." That's how I sold 30+ 70420 Graveyard Mystery sets in under 4 days. Every single sale was fraud.

Knowingly being complicit the scam, and "I'll just keep marking up the set and sell them to whomever buys them until they find a cheaper supplier.", would be considered unethical to most. One time is you being fooled, two times is a suspicious pattern, continually raising your price to make more profit knowing it's a scammer crosses the line. So I suggested going all in and cutting the scam buyer out of the loop. And also suggested killing their feedback by: Both killing their sale, and 100% profit, and also damaging their account on whatever platform they are using to make their dropshipped sale. It's not like they can leave feedback from a banned account. Nothing will get someone to submit negative feedback against the scam buyer faster than a picture of what you ordered inside of a gaping butthole. Honestly, I'd be completely unethical until they stopped buying from me due to feedback retaliation and cases against them. Perhaps they're on Amazon undercutting all of us because they're hitting 100% profit by scamming? Would be nice to have a scammer account removed from there.