Jump to content

10267 - Gingerbread House


Recommended Posts

31 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

Better than Santa?

Nope, Santa has been the best to date!  $400 this Christmas for a $75 set.  Not half bad.

Edited by gmpirate
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 115
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

https://www.promobricks.de/lego-creator-expert-10267-gingerbread-house-alle-bilder-preis-verfuegbarkeit/86016?fbclid=IwAR2tt599IrZurX42fnw9pcLLLx9h0GMGBrw3jdjhXNwbjFjg5usTEa-hGXA

Love it, looks delicious. Sold off most of my other Holiday sets and haven't displayed one in a while, but i think i'll be picking this one up.

It starts here with a little "boom chicka bow wow" music.

Posted Images

Look at both Winter Toy Shops to get an idea of risk/reward for the winter theme.

10199 took about three years post retirement to hit $300 (5x retail).

10249 comes out and knocks it back to $100.

10249 has been retired about three years and both sets are back to $300.

I got in the game just after 10199 retired.  Bu when 10249 came back, I loaded up just based on 10199's past performance.  I thought it was risky given that everyone was probably planning the same or buying the set for their collection and wouldn't want mine.  Turns out that the risk was worth it.

I think the biggest risk to the winter theme is LEGO killing it.  That would greatly reduce the introduction of new completionist collectors building up their winter displays.  I expect modulars and the winter theme series will be around for awhile longer.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Agreed.  At this point, I don't think there's any danger of the Winter Village theme going away.  TLG saw the flack they got for simply re-releasing a set.  Not releasing a set would be much worse - especially if it was forever.

As for GBH, so long as Lego retires it at the end of this year, this is a $500 set by Christmas 2023.  Stock has never been good throughout the lifetime of this set - some of that is admittedly due to the pandemic, but more of it is due to the greatness of the set.  GBH is a far superior model to the Santa set, and GBH really doesn't rely on its minifigures at all (which is practically all the Santa set has going for it).  The set is recognizable as a gingerbread house from a good distance.  Once it's gone, I don't see a new Lego gingerbread house on the horizon for quite some time, while I would expect another set with Santa in the next several years - and it will likely/easily be superior to the original. 

People pay $100 for a tiny little GWP gingerbread house...I can't imagine what the ceiling is on this thing.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

cool; I think we're coming from different perspectives...I am not selling on Amazon so for me a $20 set selling for $60 is not moving the needle much for me, but a $99 set selling for $200 is.  I honestly don't know what to do w/ all the small sets I have...the LOE to sell exceeds my level of laziness atm...even at x3.

Bundle them, easy peasy

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Dr Jedi said:

Agreed.  At this point, I don't think there's any danger of the Winter Village theme going away.  TLG saw the flack they got for simply re-releasing a set.  Not releasing a set would be much worse - especially if it was forever.

As for GBH, so long as Lego retires it at the end of this year, this is a $500 set by Christmas 2023.  Stock has never been good throughout the lifetime of this set - some of that is admittedly due to the pandemic, but more of it is due to the greatness of the set.  GBH is a far superior model to the Santa set, and GBH really doesn't rely on its minifigures at all (which is practically all the Santa set has going for it).  The set is recognizable as a gingerbread house from a good distance.  Once it's gone, I don't see a new Lego gingerbread house on the horizon for quite some time, while I would expect another set with Santa in the next several years - and it will likely/easily be superior to the original. 

People pay $100 for a tiny little GWP gingerbread house...I can't imagine what the ceiling is on this thing.

Or you could double your money every year flipping short term and be ahead of your 5x in three years 😀

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/28/2021 at 10:25 PM, gmpirate said:

It's a good set, and the gwp's would indicate it should be a good bet, but I'm not sure its a great bet.  Needs to be at $300 to be that and really 2x buy-in is easily beat by other sets.  The only way I see this as "great" is if you can ever get it at discount or it pairs with a really good gwp.  And those scenarios aren't going to happen in volume.

Most of my money is in Walmart clearance, which is mostly stuff people didn't want (or just in the wrong stores) that I got for 40-75% off RRP. Some of that stuff will net me a 500% return, but other stuff will break even. I'm not saying LegoSteve this set, but GBH is like a blue chip to my Walmart clearance penny stocks.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, keymomachine said:

Most of my money is in Walmart clearance, which is mostly stuff people didn't want (or just in the wrong stores) that I got for 40-75% off RRP. Some of that stuff will net me a 500% return, but other stuff will break even. I'm not saying LegoSteve this set, but GBH is like a blue chip to my Walmart clearance penny stocks.

Oh, I don't know.  I'd probably take Walmart clearance as a whole over "blue chip" sets at RRP any day.  Luckily we can do both 😀

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

much like the Diner

which is currently: Amazon: $344.99 (104% above RRP) & Ebay:  ~$300 (78% over RRP)

Except for the diner it happened a bit later in the run and during the pandemic. It was harder for Lego to react and make more. They might not react but if Treehouse and Apollo are any indication, they are getting smarter. 

I'm sure it will do fine but the hold might be longer than some people here expect. Look at that guy on YouTube (link in the other thread) who tells people you can double your money in 6 months. Lego investing has pretty low barriers to entry, so known winners shouldn't exist for very long. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bricklectic said:

Greatest risk is its success. Might get the VW/TB/DS/SIB/Apollo treatment

And much of the success of the GBH is us buying them up to our limit months away from Christmas season. These other sets were horded but mostly sold to regular consumers. That makes the ratio of resell stock to demand potentially way out if line.

But maybe that's a good thing. If people took out loans to go deep on this set and get burned, they're done with Lego.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, BrickLover80 said:

And much of the success of the GBH is us buying them up to our limit months away from Christmas season. These other sets were horded but mostly sold to regular consumers. That makes the ratio of resell stock to demand potentially way out if line.

But maybe that's a good thing. If people took out loans to go deep on this set and get burned, they're done with Lego.

There always seems to be more new folks looking to get rich quick. But that’s ok as long as there are always new great sets.

What most folks lack to be successful is:

1) patience. Maybe three years or more. 
2) storage. Inexpensive or free preferably. 
3) amazon — I lack that channel unfortunately

4) time. Selling takes time — even if you are sitting there by yourself on a Sunday in a previous toys-r-us parking lot that is now a Hobby Lobby store. Buying takes time too if you want to acquire volume at below RRP. 
5) capital. I don’t care if Joey the college student has $500 Christmas money from grandma and he wants to try his luck in the lego reseller business.  The concern is Joel the retired attorney who has $500K, a large property, a steel storage building on that property, and wants to keep himself busy for the next ten years. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

My whole reselling journey started with 25 Star wars battle packs that I bought on clearance a long time ago. Since then all of the Lego I have bought and owned since then has been paid with that first sale and the sales that have come from the money earned. My wife is actually thrilled that my hobby pays for itself , allows me to keep adding nice chunks of money to my retirement and I keep giving her spending money. Worked out pretty good for us so far.

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, BrickLover80 said:

Except for the diner it happened a bit later in the run and during the pandemic. It was harder for Lego to react and make more. They might not react but if Treehouse and Apollo are any indication, they are getting smarter. 

it's a good point about Covid factor.  Re Treehouse, Apollo, and SIB...there's a common denominator there that doesn't apply to the Gingerbread House, but we're not 100% sure about it.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.




×
×
  • Create New...