10267 - Gingerbread House

[gmpirate]

31 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

Better than Santa?

Nope, Santa has been the best to date!  $400 this Christmas for a $75 set.  Not half bad.

Edited January 29, 2021 by gmpirate

[TheBrickClique]

Look at both Winter Toy Shops to get an idea of risk/reward for the winter theme.

10199 took about three years post retirement to hit $300 (5x retail).

10249 comes out and knocks it back to $100.

10249 has been retired about three years and both sets are back to $300.

I got in the game just after 10199 retired.  Bu when 10249 came back, I loaded up just based on 10199's past performance.  I thought it was risky given that everyone was probably planning the same or buying the set for their collection and wouldn't want mine.  Turns out that the risk was worth it.

I think the biggest risk to the winter theme is LEGO killing it.  That would greatly reduce the introduction of new completionist collectors building up their winter displays.  I expect modulars and the winter theme series will be around for awhile longer.

[Dr Jedi]

Agreed.  At this point, I don't think there's any danger of the Winter Village theme going away.  TLG saw the flack they got for simply re-releasing a set.  Not releasing a set would be much worse - especially if it was forever.

As for GBH, so long as Lego retires it at the end of this year, this is a $500 set by Christmas 2023.  Stock has never been good throughout the lifetime of this set - some of that is admittedly due to the pandemic, but more of it is due to the greatness of the set.  GBH is a far superior model to the Santa set, and GBH really doesn't rely on its minifigures at all (which is practically all the Santa set has going for it).  The set is recognizable as a gingerbread house from a good distance.  Once it's gone, I don't see a new Lego gingerbread house on the horizon for quite some time, while I would expect another set with Santa in the next several years - and it will likely/easily be superior to the original. 

People pay $100 for a tiny little GWP gingerbread house...I can't imagine what the ceiling is on this thing.

[exciter1]

3 hours ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

cool; I think we're coming from different perspectives...I am not selling on Amazon so for me a $20 set selling for $60 is not moving the needle much for me, but a $99 set selling for $200 is.  I honestly don't know what to do w/ all the small sets I have...the LOE to sell exceeds my level of laziness atm...even at x3.

Bundle them, easy peasy

[gmpirate]

1 hour ago, Dr Jedi said:

Agreed.  At this point, I don't think there's any danger of the Winter Village theme going away.  TLG saw the flack they got for simply re-releasing a set.  Not releasing a set would be much worse - especially if it was forever.

As for GBH, so long as Lego retires it at the end of this year, this is a $500 set by Christmas 2023.  Stock has never been good throughout the lifetime of this set - some of that is admittedly due to the pandemic, but more of it is due to the greatness of the set.  GBH is a far superior model to the Santa set, and GBH really doesn't rely on its minifigures at all (which is practically all the Santa set has going for it).  The set is recognizable as a gingerbread house from a good distance.  Once it's gone, I don't see a new Lego gingerbread house on the horizon for quite some time, while I would expect another set with Santa in the next several years - and it will likely/easily be superior to the original. 

People pay $100 for a tiny little GWP gingerbread house...I can't imagine what the ceiling is on this thing.

Or you could double your money every year flipping short term and be ahead of your 5x in three years 😀

[keymomachine]

On 1/28/2021 at 10:25 PM, gmpirate said:

It's a good set, and the gwp's would indicate it should be a good bet, but I'm not sure its a great bet.  Needs to be at $300 to be that and really 2x buy-in is easily beat by other sets.  The only way I see this as "great" is if you can ever get it at discount or it pairs with a really good gwp.  And those scenarios aren't going to happen in volume.

Most of my money is in Walmart clearance, which is mostly stuff people didn't want (or just in the wrong stores) that I got for 40-75% off RRP. Some of that stuff will net me a 500% return, but other stuff will break even. I'm not saying LegoSteve this set, but GBH is like a blue chip to my Walmart clearance penny stocks.

[joneyyy1981]

its a great set, but the heard have caught wind, once this happens, its hoarded beyond belief.

[gmpirate]

2 hours ago, keymomachine said:

Most of my money is in Walmart clearance, which is mostly stuff people didn't want (or just in the wrong stores) that I got for 40-75% off RRP. Some of that stuff will net me a 500% return, but other stuff will break even. I'm not saying LegoSteve this set, but GBH is like a blue chip to my Walmart clearance penny stocks.

Oh, I don't know.  I'd probably take Walmart clearance as a whole over "blue chip" sets at RRP any day.  Luckily we can do both 😀

[$20 on joe vs dan]

20 hours ago, joneyyy1981 said:

its a great set, but the heard have caught wind, once this happens, its hoarded beyond belief.

much like the Diner

which is currently: Amazon: $344.99 (104% above RRP) & Ebay:  ~$300 (78% over RRP)

[BrickLover80]

8 hours ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

much like the Diner

which is currently: Amazon: $344.99 (104% above RRP) & Ebay:  ~$300 (78% over RRP)

Except for the diner it happened a bit later in the run and during the pandemic. It was harder for Lego to react and make more. They might not react but if Treehouse and Apollo are any indication, they are getting smarter. 

I'm sure it will do fine but the hold might be longer than some people here expect. Look at that guy on YouTube (link in the other thread) who tells people you can double your money in 6 months. Lego investing has pretty low barriers to entry, so known winners shouldn't exist for very long. 

[joneyyy1981]

13 minutes ago, BrickLover80 said:

Look at that guy on YouTube (link in the other thread) who tells people you can double your money in 6 months.

still flabbergasted as to what this achieves.

[Bricklectic]

Greatest risk is its success. Might get the VW/TB/DS/SIB/Apollo treatment

[BrickLover80]

1 hour ago, Bricklectic said:

Greatest risk is its success. Might get the VW/TB/DS/SIB/Apollo treatment

And much of the success of the GBH is us buying them up to our limit months away from Christmas season. These other sets were horded but mostly sold to regular consumers. That makes the ratio of resell stock to demand potentially way out if line.

But maybe that's a good thing. If people took out loans to go deep on this set and get burned, they're done with Lego.

[TheBrickClique]

1 hour ago, BrickLover80 said:

And much of the success of the GBH is us buying them up to our limit months away from Christmas season. These other sets were horded but mostly sold to regular consumers. That makes the ratio of resell stock to demand potentially way out if line.

But maybe that's a good thing. If people took out loans to go deep on this set and get burned, they're done with Lego.

There always seems to be more new folks looking to get rich quick. But that’s ok as long as there are always new great sets.

What most folks lack to be successful is:

1) patience. Maybe three years or more. 
2) storage. Inexpensive or free preferably. 
3) amazon — I lack that channel unfortunately

4) time. Selling takes time — even if you are sitting there by yourself on a Sunday in a previous toys-r-us parking lot that is now a Hobby Lobby store. Buying takes time too if you want to acquire volume at below RRP. 
5) capital. I don’t care if Joey the college student has $500 Christmas money from grandma and he wants to try his luck in the lego reseller business.  The concern is Joel the retired attorney who has $500K, a large property, a steel storage building on that property, and wants to keep himself busy for the next ten years. 

[Thanos75]

My whole reselling journey started with 25 Star wars battle packs that I bought on clearance a long time ago. Since then all of the Lego I have bought and owned since then has been paid with that first sale and the sales that have come from the money earned. My wife is actually thrilled that my hobby pays for itself , allows me to keep adding nice chunks of money to my retirement and I keep giving her spending money. Worked out pretty good for us so far.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

16 hours ago, BrickLover80 said:

Except for the diner it happened a bit later in the run and during the pandemic. It was harder for Lego to react and make more. They might not react but if Treehouse and Apollo are any indication, they are getting smarter. 

it's a good point about Covid factor.  Re Treehouse, Apollo, and SIB...there's a common denominator there that doesn't apply to the Gingerbread House, but we're not 100% sure about it.

[Ogelwoc]

Does anyone know how many sets come in the shipping box? Thanks

[Loghamel]

56 minutes ago, Ogelwoc said:

Does anyone know how many sets come in the shipping box? Thanks

2

[maestro]

Meant to buy some of these. Now retired and sold out on Lego Online store. Can get 1 on Bricklink for €116 including postage. Worth the jump?

[KShine]

2 hours ago, maestro said:

Meant to buy some of these. Now retired and sold out on Lego Online store. Can get 1 on Bricklink for €116 including postage. Worth the jump?

While the timing isn't great (as you missed it as msrp), if it is gone for good, you will still make good money on it at that price.

[carini26]

I could see this one as a candidate for mass Dec production and sitting on AMZN for 6-12 months post retirement.

Anyone remember 10259? 

[KShine]

30 minutes ago, carini26 said:

I could see this one as a candidate for mass Dec production and sitting on AMZN for 6-12 months post retirement.

Anyone remember 10259? 

But still, look at 10259 now - What LEGO decides to do is really out of our control.

They could just re-release the set (maybe the couple will decide one day to have another Gingerbaby).   

[Mark Twain]

Funny reversal from last year, Elf Clubhouse now OOS while Gingerbread house is seemingly everywhere. 

[BrickLover80]

14 minutes ago, Mark Twain said:

Funny reversal from last year, Elf Clubhouse now OOS while Gingerbread house is seemingly everywhere. 

We made sure of that. Arm sweeping the GBH whenever it was in stock. Keeping fingers crossed that Elf will stay TOOS and I can flip the few I have.

[carini26]

3 hours ago, KShine said:

But still, look at 10259 now - What LEGO decides to do is really out of our control.

They could just re-release the set (maybe the couple will decide one day to have another Gingerbaby).   

Don't disagree... but with it hanging around RRP for most of '19 it took an extra year to get where we are now.  For some, that doesn't matter.  For me, wish I could reinvest sooner.