New, need advice

[kpow]

Hello, I am just starting my lego investing career and I have a few questions. I do plan on doing this for the long haul.

I am looking at buying Tower bridge, Pet shop, Sydney opera, ewok village, palace cinema, sandcrawler, santas workshop, fairground mixer, parisian restaurant, or the simpsons house as my first buy. 

My first question is why has the tower bridge been out so long and was it retired and rereleased? 

Second, are these all solid choices or is my research bad and I need to rethink my strategy?

Third, which one do you think is the best choice or choices for my first buy.

*edit* I forgot to add 

Remote-Controlled VOLVO L350F Wheel Loader

 

Thanks

Edited September 4, 2016 by kpow

[Bold-Arrow]

welcome to the Forums

Regarding question 1 : TB has a new box , it was never retired. 

[ISO8T0]

How much are you wanting to spend?

[dcdfan]

In my opinion, everything you list will require a lot of patience.

[kpow]

I don't want to go crazy and probably somewhere from $300-$600

 

dcdfan you think these won't retire for a while?

Edited September 4, 2016 by kpow

[Bold-Arrow]

If you want to go exlvisves , based on your budget : 1 EW , 2 PR

[dcdfan]

Only because you asked, just my opinions, I have no secrets to share:

Tower Bridge probably not going anywhere even if it does, it's very old, many have been accumulated.

Pet Shop probably going this year (hopefully) but again, many have been accumulated, so have patience. I have more than I care to but I got time.

Sydney Opera House would be a good gamble as it's not as old as TB and sometimes more expensive scares off people.

Ewok Village should go this year but it's Star Wars, a little obvious a choice.

Palace Cinema, if it went this year, it would be ahead of trend, so that would be great but don't count on any favors from TLG.

Sandcrawler should go this year and more expensive than EV, so again (as stated above), Star Wars (obvious) but expensive to some.

Santas Workshop should go this year but way too many in hands. This is a waste of funds to me. Yes, I have wasted money here.

Fairground Mixer a gamble as it doesn't seem to sell and maybe done but it'll be awhile before we know as not enough move at retail.

Parisian Restaurant bigger gamble than PC as it's way earlier than trend.

Simpsons House sells better than Kwik-E (last I checked) and older but both should go at the same time. Still a risk to me.

That's all. Good luck.

Edited September 4, 2016 by dcdfan

[Bold-Arrow]

so u telling him/her to buy what ?

[dcdfan]

1 minute ago, Bold-Arrow said:

so u telling him/her to buy what ?

Sorry, it's a secret sauce.

[Bold-Arrow]

2 minutes ago, dcdfan said:

Sorry, it's a secret sauce.

 

[Voltron]

I personally would also avoid the VOLVO L350F as is unlikely to retire this year, also as a technic set it is unlikely to grow as much as other non technic exclusives, it will be a very slow grower once eol but as it's a power function / remote control set with all PF included it should fair better than other previous technic flagsets i.e. unimog, arocs 

[dcdfan]

[LegoBro]

I'd read up on the investment mistakes and regrets thread.  Might help you avoid mistakes and regrets   I found it really helpful.

[MrToes16]

Star Wars themes will likely be the best bets since that genre will be around for a lot longer with new fans coming in and desires for old sets. Be warned, especially in the case of Death Star, that re-releases can instantly make your big investments drop in value. Still, if time is on your side things can change.

I wouldn't be quick to dismiss the value of modulars. They attract more of an older group of people...people who more likely have the disposable income to want to build all the sets once they start with one or two.

Have you thought also about a smaller strategy? I actually moved my investments to smaller sets which I can turnaround faster than larger, more expensive sets. The money gains are smaller but technically the percentage gains can be better. I like to make some steady money returns in the shorter term while my larger sets gain value in the longer term.

Best advice really is buy what you like the most first. Buy what you wouldn't mind building yourself if worse comes to worse and you have no choice but to open up a box and build.

 

 

[jbacunn]

Only because you asked, just my opinions, I have no secrets to share:

Tower Bridge probably not going anywhere even if it does, it's very old, many have been accumulated.

Pet Shop probably going this year (hopefully) but again, many have been accumulated, so have patience. I have more than I care to but I got time.

Sydney Opera House would be a good gamble as it's not as old as TB and sometimes more expensive scares off people.

Ewok Village should go this year but it's Star Wars, a little obvious a choice.

Palace Cinema, if it went this year, it would be ahead of trend, so that would be great but don't count on any favors from TLG.

Sandcrawler should go this year and more expensive than EV, so again (as stated above), Star Wars (obvious) but expensive to some.

Santas Workshop should go this year but way too many in hands. This is a waste of funds to me. Yes, I have wasted money here.

Fairground Mixer a gamble as it doesn't seem to sell and maybe done but it'll be awhile before we know as not enough move at retail.

Parisian Restaurant bigger gamble than PC as it's way earlier than trend.

Simpsons House sells better than Kwik-E (last I checked) and older but both should go at the same time. Still a risk to me.

That's all. Good luck.

So you're telling him not to buy anything.

[dcdfan]

So you're telling him not to buy anything.

Honestly, that wasn't my intent but I guess it probably comes off that way.

[cladner]

With only $300-500 to invest, going with a large exclusive is a bad idea imo.  something goes wrong with the sale, you are down for the count.  also if you are new you want to build up your feedback.  multiple smaller sales will do that more effectively than a large exclusive.

With that amount I would target $20-40 sets on discount.  Personally, I would target the Tie Advanced Prototype which should be EOL by the end of the year and based on other Rebels sets, should yield decent return within a year of EOL.

Also if you are new to the game, you should know that amazon has in the last week put a gate in place to effectively limit new small time sellers from getting into that market.  Amazon is the strongest  market place for retired LEGO sets, so that is something to consider as well.

Buying is the easy part.  Selling is the difficult and sometimes not so fun part when you realize you are packing boxes and mailing them for the thrill of it unless packaging boxes and printing labels is your regular hobby.

Edited September 4, 2016 by cladner

[Deanfjr]

best advice: run far away from this website & forget about it...

[Sfcommando14]

Star Wars themes will likely be the best bets

Have you thought also about a smaller strategy? I actually moved my investments to smaller sets which I can turnaround faster than larger, more expensive sets. The money gains are smaller but technically the percentage gains can be better. I like to make some steady money returns in the shorter term while my larger sets gain value in the longer term.

 

 

I'm newish to this and these two pieces of advice have been part of my strategy that has already started paying off. Unless you have hundreds coming into your new purchasing each month, exclusives isn't a great strategy. In 3 years that $500 might net you another $500, but it might barely break even if you aren't a savvy seller or you pick a set that doesn't retire for 2 more years. Start looking for older sets that will retire (hopefully) this holiday season (at discounts) that you might be able to turn over next Christmas, and then you use that money to buy the other sets going EOL for the following Christmas. If you had just bought discounted Wheel Bikes, Ghosts, At-Ats, and Phantoms last Christmas, you'd be all set for this year. But there's nothing wrong if you want to just buy exclusives and set them in a closet for a few years, if that is the hands-off approach you desire. I prefer to be more active and wanted to grow my Lego purchasing power.

[mezzaluna]

i would buy some anakins custom Jedi star fighters and tie prototypes because your done for if you make one mistake with a exclusive, start small is the best tip i can give you in my years of experience 

[Deanfjr]

15 minutes ago, Knightwing01 said:

i would buy some anakins custom Jedi star fighters and tie prototypes because your done for if you make one mistake with a exclusive, start small is the best tip i can give you in my years of experience 

not to contradict you, just adding my serious opinion: I think if your buying into smaller SW sets settle for middle of the pack in price, POE's X-wing looks to be the solid choice, with it being all over at 20% off or better makes for a good buy in price, also consider it is not in the winter catalog an could be gone shortly... plus even more of a possibility with the resistance X-wing just being released, I feel some of TFA sets will be pushed out this year for a short run...

Edited September 4, 2016 by Deanfjr

[mezzaluna]

46 minutes ago, Deanfjr said:

not to contradict you, just adding my serious opinion: I think if your buying into smaller SW sets settle for middle of the pack in price, POE's X-wing looks to be the solid choice, with it being all over at 20% off or better makes for a good buy in price, also consider it is not in the winter catalog an could be gone shortly... plus even more of a possibility with the resistance X-wing just being released, I feel some of TFA sets will be pushed out this year for a short run...

that's a great set also, and first order tie

[kpow]

Wow lots of advice. Thank you everyone! Definitely helped me out a lot. I think I'll start looking at smaller sets and see whats out there before I decide to buy, and also check out the regrets page.

[cubfan78]

I am not an investor nor do I ever have any interest in being one but I think the hidden gem could be the fairground mixer. It seems to be overlooked by almost every investor. If TLG continues with the fairground theme, people will want this set. I would also consider some of the older retired modulars that have not yet hit crazy status, like GE and FB. There may be some great long term investing in those sets. Maybe even consider some retired SW UCS sets. Again just my opinion I am not an investor.

Here are some unsolicited thoughts. As a new investor with a relatively small budget, it might take you 5-10 years before you realize any significant gains. This seems like a longtime to sit on $600 worth of sets that might net you $1200 in 5 -10 years. 

[TheOrcKing]

Welcome, kpow.