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Brickpicker Blog

Brickpicker blog articles on LEGO investing, news, reviews, evaluations, discounts and more...
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As LEGO investors, I think it would be pretty safe to say that most of the time we are more focused on getting sealed and big sets in order to secure higher profits on each sale, but there are some other aspects to LEGO investing that can also turn out very profitable with a significantly lower amount of capital. Polybags and promotional mini sets on each theme that is released usually perform extremely well, and given their lower or none existing retail price they tend to reach great ROI in a very short time. There are several other aspects that make polybag and small set investing particularly interesting, but I will leave those for a future blog article currently in the works.
For now, I want to focus on analyzing some of the items in this category from one of the most talked about themes over the past few months: Monster Fighters.
If you take a look at the list of CAGR by theme in the homepage, you will notice that Monster Fighters currently places second in that entire list with an overall CAGR of around 41%, surpassed only by the Ninjago powerhouse. If you remember, on a previous blog article I commented that sometimes it is best to use the weighted CAGR measure to gauge a theme's popularity or plain investing performance, however since we are focusing on some of the smallest sets of the theme in this case it actually makes sense to take a look at the simple CAGR measure. You will see that a big part of the theme's very high CAGR actually comes from the great performance of the polybags we will discuss below (and The Zombies).
- 5000644 Monster Fighters promotional pack


Comments: This polybag was given away in the USA at TRUs locations as part of a special Halloween themed event. There is really not much as far as parts is concerned, basically what you see in the picture above (skeleton, web, glow in the dark spider, red gem, green crystal) and a sticker sheet featuring some of the MFs characters. Since this polybag was given out for free, anything you sell it for would net you almost 100% profits, that at this point would be around $ 15.
There are very few of these listed on eBay at any given time, and for the past 3 months or so the price has actually increased after 2 full months of 0 sales. Not really an interesting set, I would not expect this one to go up any further other than the normal fluctuations from month to month.
- 300200 Zombie Chauffeur Coffin Car


Comments: This is for sure a pretty good looking polybag. This one was available at LEGO Discovery Centers and later in some TRUs locations. Unlike the first entry of this article, this set actually included a pretty interesting minifig as the zombie driver. Being a zombie themed set was enough to make this particular polybag one of the most sold on ebay during the holiday season, and would have been a great companion for those who were able to acquire a Zombies set.
The number of these sold each month has declined a lot since the end of last year, but they still sell a pretty respectable number with May being the lowest (19) and February the highest (96). Price has remained very consistent at around $10, so you could really make some money by moving several of these.
- 30201 Ghost


Comments: Another very cool polybag that was exclusive to LEGO Discovery Centers and eventually found its way to Target stores. At the same MSRP of the previous one we talked about, this one included a ghost exclusive to this and the 10228 HH as well as one of my favorite "props" of the theme: the antique clock. Overall, its performance has actually been pretty close to 30200, currently selling for around $ 10, but keeping some higher sales numbers over the past few months.
- 40076 Zombie Car


Comments: The best performer of this whole bunch, this was an actual promo polybag given away by LEGO and S@H on qualifying orders in September 2012. We once again have a zombie theme set, specifically another driver, along with a cool looking car and a glow in the dark spider. This is one polybag that caught on the market and is selling for around $ 21 at this point. It actually peaked in the month of March at around $ 25, but it has since declined to its present level.
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As you can see, Zombies made an appearance in two of the three actual promotional sets and polybags, testament to their current popularity in our society. Other than that we had a very cool looking ghost set and a very disappointing TRU promo (in my opinion) that still sells for a decent amount of money considering what you get.
From the data above you can see where the MFs theme currently pulls the majority of its overall CAGR number, with the small sets presenting numbers as high as 180%. This promo sets from this set have been quite popular in the secondary market, unfortunately it seems it is now too late to invest in them. Still, they provide us with a very nice example that sometimes the good things also come in small packages!
Thanks for reading
 
Throughout the Golden Age of Baseball, when Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays patrolled the game's outfields, baseball writers and fans used three primary statistics to explain a player's offensive prowess: runs, home runs and RBI. This had been the case for a hundred years, but in 1977 a little known statistician named Bill James produced a magazine called Bill James Baseball Abstract. In it he presented a number of new statistics that more accurately represented how baseball players created or saved runs. As time went on James' Abstracts gained acceptance, and eventually he became the prophet of a new way of measuring baseball statistics called sabermetrics, popularized most recently in the movie Moneyball. Today, many of these sabermetrics have been accepted by the mainstream baseball community and are routinely used when comparing baseball players across generations. Without James, these sabermetrics may never have taken root.
Like baseball junkies, Lego investors also use statistics to estimate the future performance of their investment sets. Among these, the Price Per Piece statistic seems to have caught on as the default metric to assess the "value" of a set. PPP shows up prominently in Brickpicker's very own set review template, asking reviewers to assess the set's PPP for a better understand of the set's value. Its concept is simple: the more bricks a buyer receives for their dollar, the more they "get" for their money. Typically, buyers and investors have used a $.10 per piece benchmark to label sets as good or bad values.
In the context of investing, using PPP to estimate future demand for a given set is at best limiting, and at worst, flat out wrong. In order for PPP to help in measuring future performance, we need to see a correlation between PPP and secondary market performance. Unfortunately, there are hundreds of examples where low Price Per Piece sets don't perform well after retirement, and a similar count of high PPP sets that are phenomenal performers. In my earlier blog, Lego Truths and Myths, I showed how 5525 Amusement Park has a strong PPP ratio of $.052/piece and a dreadful secondary market performance, with a 32% loss from MSRP. Yet in the same theme, 10183 Hobby Trains has a PPP of $.093, with an amazing 135% incredible secondary market gain, while 5526 Skyline has a ridiculously low PPP of $.047 with an even better 144% post-EOL yield. As you can see, there is no correlation between low PPP and high earnings within the Factory theme.
For other themes, the trend continues: here is the performance of a recent, relevant theme, Pirates of the Carribean:
 

For a theme with some pretty similar PPPs, there is a huge difference in post-EOL performance. The takeaway is this: there is NO correlation between PPP and secondary market performance. Demand for a secondary market set is largely determined by other set characteristics, most notably primary market demand and primary market availability. So can PPP be used for anything, or is it a complete strikeout for investors? To answer this, we must determine whether there are secondary market buyers that are price-sensitive, or more willing to buy something if it's priced lower. Here is a simple market segmentation showing the types of secondary market buyers that I presented in a previous blog article:
 

Among the secondary market's two submarkets of AFOLs and parents, there is one market segment that is very price conscious: MOCers. MOCers are AFOLs (Adult Fans of Lego) that design and build their own models referred to as "MOCs", an abbreviation for "My Own Creations". They often require specific colors or unique pieces for their MOCs and will pay what they need to get them. However if there are cheaper, more reliable alternatives, they will use them. In the past, a few bold expert investors have tried to purchase retail sets anticipating the set's pieces will be more desirable than others after the set has retired. To find these sets, most use Bricklink.com, a website with a function that provides the total part-out value of a set based upon the last six months of sales, so comparing the retail PPP against the part-out PPP may provide investors with a good gauge to whether MOCers might pay inflated prices once a set has retired. Here are some randomly selected retail sets with their current part out and retail PPPs:


This table shows us that MOCers would likely pay a premium over retail for 79003 and 79111, but NOT for 9493 and 21008 since their Part out to Retail PPP ratio is significantly lower. Technically, this is a metric that can be calculated without PPP, but translating it to PPP allows meaningful comparison across all types and sizes of sets. When using this new metric, it's important to bear in mind that this Part-out to Retail PPP ratio isn't an assessment of future secondary market performance, only a guess whether MOCers will still purchase sets above retail after retirement. While Burj Khalifa has a terrible ratio, it still may be a winner in the secondary market because of its collectability as part of the Architecture theme. While the Part-out to Retail PPP ratio allows us to think about PPP and investing from a slightly different angle, it will likely never become a meaningful or widely used statistic since it only measures demand from one small segment of the overall secondary market.
There are two other insights from PPP that provide additional information to our beloved Lego universe:
On average, licensed themes are more expensive on a Price-Per-Piece basis than non-licensed themes. Comparing the average theme PPP among a group of licensed themes could provide a very rough comparison of Lego's licensing costs. We surmise that Star Wars has the highest licensing fees because their sets' PPPs are, on average, higher than others. Comparing the aggregate PPP for a theme would likely show this even better. The PPP ratio can also be used by Lego buyers to quickly expand their Lego piece collections by purchasing only low PPP sets. This would apply to a VERY small segment of Lego buyers with a negligible effect on either the primary or secondary market. While these PPP fun facts are interesting, they aren't particularly illuminating for investors.
We know from our assessment of PPP that there is no correlation between PPP and investment success. Yet, while the best analysis in the world can give you a great chance at making money, the immortal words of Yogi Berra still echo loudly in the relatively immature Lego investment market:
"In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is."
If you are determined to use Price Per Piece as part of a systematic approach to investing, you can still make money. As always, invest accordingly.
 
This will be my first entry in my new Blog category dedicated exclusively to polybags and minifigs.Even if sealed sets or sets overall usually get most of the attention in the forums, both minifigs and polybags also play an important role in the market, and it is good that we also keep them in mind when analyzing all of the aspects of LEGO investing.
In this particular series named Minifig Corner, I will talk a little bit at some of the most expensive or interesting minifigs ever released by LEGO. Even if we don't really have that much data currently on the site, I think we can at least make some comments and see some information from the latest sold listings on eBay. With that introduction out of the way, let's get talking about the first LEGO minifig to be featured: Mr. Gold.
I think it really should not come as a surprise that I selected this particular character as my first choice, especially since we have been talking a lot about him over the past few months since it was originally announced. Anyway, Mr. Gold is kind of an appendix of the LEGO CMF's Series 10 that was released a short time ago, and is limited to only 5,000 copies randomly placed among the thousands and thousands of regular characters of the series, making it a really hard to find and sought after item.
From the beginning, we all knew the minifigure would be selling for a pretty high amount of money, but once the first reports started about some Mr. Golds selling for over $1,000 I have to say I was really surprised. Still, it was to be expected that the price would stabilize once more of them where found and listed for sale, as it ended up being the case. The last bunch of Mr. Golds that have been sold on eBay have gone for quite a lower price, going from $ 600 to around $ 800 in some cases, a drop of from 20% to 40% from the first sales.
There is really not much we can do as investors to put our money into this minifig, since you will usually find it, if you find it, completely by chance. Once you get one, you have to make the choice to either hold it or sell it now (unless you keep it), and there are two ways you can look at that great "problem". First, by selling now you secure a large amount of money that you will be able to further invest and keep the cash flow going, while you run the risk of missing out on future growth. This future growth possibility is what takes me to the second scenario, where you keep the figure at least until Series 10 retires hoping that the lack of availability of sealed bags will reduce supply, and more importantly hope of getting the figure at "retail". Anyway you look at it though, I think there is no way to lose in the end.
What I mentioned above takes me to something that is somehow related to the figure itself but that really is not based on acquiring it. A very good strategy that will probably net you some great profits in the not so long term would be to invest in sealed Series 10 boxes. As it has been said on the forums a lot of times, the 5,000 Mr. Golds will never be accounted for, either because of people not registering theirs or by the fact that there will be some sealed boxes that will never be opened. You can take advantage of this by holding your SEALED boxes until the series retires and people start to scramble and look for ways to get a hold of the minifigure without having to pay $ 600 at the least. ALL of the sealed boxes will rise whether they include a Mr Gold or not just based on the chance that it is included, and to me those are way better odds than trying to find 1 in the thousands of bags currently in the market.
Thanks for reading!
 
Guest
Welcome to the exciting world of Lego Investing! This primer is intended to provide you with as much information as possible to create a buying strategy for yourself as you buy Lego from Canada/USA/Europe. Buying and selling anything can be hard, but as with all commodities, if you can buy low and sell high you can make a lot of money doing this with Lego over time! This article is more Canadian focused as it was created with the Canadian shopper in mind, but it should have some tidbits that can provide you with good insights to buying regardless of where you are from.
Buying from Canada
If you're going to be buying from Canada it's really imperative that you only buy when there's a sale or some type of clearance going on (or if it's at this moment at Jul 6, 2013, the only retail priced set you should even be thinking of is Orc Forge ). Walmart typically does clearances twice a year like the ones seen by our American friends: summer (e.g. starting now) and winter (e.g. after the christmas season). That doesn't mean, however that you should only buy during these two seasons as in store promos and other promos (e.g. Lego exclusives at the Lego store) can happen all the time. It's a little bit tough but you can definitely score deals. Here's some places to keep on checking as you are looking for Lego to buy:
Amazon.ca
Walmart (both online and in store)
Target.ca
PlayValue Toys (never shopped here before but some members have given it good reviews)
Toys R' Us
Buying from the USA
You can also buy from the USA but keep in mind most of them do not ship Lego to Canada due to customs rules and the complications in tracking (which is very weird because Lego is a category 5 import, which means no duties on toys made from anywhere in the world). To get the great prices that our American friends get, some of us buy Lego online and then have it shipped to a US warehouse for pickup later. A great example is CBI USA (www.cbiusa.com) which you should check out if you're close to the Buffalo border. If you're going to the US you can always try to hunt down deals as you're cruising along the interstate to your destination as well. I usually star every Walmart/Target/Kmart along the path from my starting point to my destination on Google Maps so I can hit them all up if/when I can.
Some of the places that you will ship to US warehouse (or if you have time, in-store pickup) include:
Walmart.com
Amazon.com
Target.com
Kmart.com
Lego.com (only if you use a US-based Lego gift card as they have stopped accepting any Canadian-based form of payment to the US due to "privacy issues". Not sure when they will stop with US gift cards as well)
Toys R' Us
Buying from Europe (currently my favourite )
The third place that I usually look for is buying from the European Amazon sites which include:
Amazon.co.uk
Amazon.de
Amazon.fr
Amazon.es
Amazon.it
I generally only focus on UK and DE as FR charges way too much for import taxes, and ES/IT have a lot of items that do not ship to Canada. One of the things that's really advantageous to North American shoppers is that they discount the VAT when you buy the product. European prices often have the tax baked into the price, and it is this tax that they take out when you get to the checkout. There was a very good article on Euro shopping by Quacs that relates to this and you should read it here:
http://www.brickpick...e-at-amazon-uk/
Read the part about shipping carefully though! When you are buying from Euro Amazon the biggest risk is shipping/packaging as many shoppers (myself included) have had damaged boxes of Lego arriving on this side of the pond. However, their shipping has seen considerable improvement due to numerous complaints, and the items are now arriving much better than in the past.
Region-Independent Tools
Brickpicker.com - For price trending, history and sales reporting
Brickset.com - For detailed information pertaining to a specific set.
ToysnBricks.com - for checking promotions in case you don't have time to do it all yourself
Camelcamelcamel.com - For tracking Lego sales as soon as they hit on Amazon (regardless of geographical region)
To conclude there's really no limit to the amount of places you can go to scour deals. A lot of it takes time and patience, and sometimes really really good luck. Buying and selling Lego is pretty much a grind, and if you're focus on making big bucks on the short term this might not be a good investment avenue for you. Most of us buying here are also Lego hobbyists with some spare change sitting around so we're not forced to do quick sells to recover our capital.
You might not score an 80% off deal all the time but if you work hard at it you'd be amazed how many good deals you encounter (and how much poorer it will make you). Another thing is to pay attention to the Canadian exchange rates as I was doing some analysis on it late last night and realized that the Loonie has lost 4-6% of its values in just the last 2-3 months alone against the US greenback; which means even I may slow down my US buying and concentrate more on Europe. Good luck and happy hunting!
 
With the recent disappointment of Pirates of the Caribbean and Price of Persia LEGO themes, are we looking at another flop theme when seeing the Lone Ranger? Not to say that the POTC sets weren't well designed and put together, but the overall popularity of the fourth movie didn't have the same appeal as say the first movie. The Lone Ranger is out in theaters and with that we have seen the LEGO Lone Ranger sets out on the shelves. I personally have put together three of these sets and I am very impressed by them. In 2002, LEGO had a theme out called "Western" and it has done very well in the secondary market and overall seemed to be a very popular theme. So why hasn't The Lego Group introduced more Westernized themes? That's a great question and I'm sure someone at the wonderful Lego Group has an answer but it's definitely a riddle for me. What we do have though is The Lone Ranger.
Let's take a look at the available Lone Ranger LEGO sets:
I didn't grow up watching The Lone Ranger and I have no idea regarding anything of the show. I've never read any of the books, seen the television show or played with any of the toys. I absolutely know nothing of the character. What I do know is that the six LEGO sets released a couple of months ago are brilliant. It's the closet "Western" theme since 2002 and I personally believe it's going to have a lot of potential. But what kind of potential can we see from this? If the movie flops at the box office we may not see much movement in the sets after retirement. At least that is what we have come to know with the recent movie related sets that haven't done well. One thing that stands out about The Lone Ranger sets though is the look and feel of them. LEGO has put out plenty of Pirate related merchandise. Prince of Persia was just lame(sorry) and Indiana Jones actually did quite well in the secondary market because the sets were well designed, very interesting and had some value to them. Like Dr. Jones, I feel Tonto and the Lone Ranger are going to have some value to them as well.
I'm going to break down each and every one of these sets from the smallest to the largest and share my opinion why these are going to be some sleeper sets. Every investor is going to want to have their hands on these sets after retirement. At least that is what I'm telling myself! So, before you come take a journey with me I just want to reiterate that when making an investment choice please, please, please do your own research! Don't take the word of others, especially people like myself whom you have never met before. I'm no expert, I'll be the first to say it. I'm not a Lego investor veteran either. What I do know how to do is read numbers and see patterns and that is what I have done with every single Lego investment I have made. And folks, so far it's turning out pretty well! So sit back, put your bandana on and come take a ride with me through the wicked wild wild west!

The first set we are going to dive into is the 79106 Cavalry Builder Set. This is one of my favorites of the theme and the first one that I bought. It is also the set that has built me over fifty eBay feedback in the last two weeks just by buying the set, breaking it down and selling it individually. First though let us take a look at what's included.
Four Mini-Figures ​The Lone Ranger Three Cavalry Men A White Horse(Silver) A Cannon(Works very well too!) A camp fire with a pot and pan A small fort wall with a flag A half dozen of weapons. This little $13.00 set really packs a punch here! I typically sell The Lone Ranger figure for about 3 bucks plus shipping. The Cavalry Figures get me about 9 bucks plus shipping. Silver has constantly been selling for around $2.00-$2.50 and the Cannon yields $2.00. The camp fire I sold for 25 cents plus shipping, the weapons were included with the figures and the small fort wall's I haven't been able to move yet. So about $16.25 (before fees) plus I charge a flat rate of $2.98 for shipping. It costs $1.69 to ship each item and the rest helps cover the bubble mailer and time spent. The profit is very small, in-fact there really isn't much. But, I'm getting positive feedback for free! Some buyers will take a loss to earn feedback for small items, and that's not a good business practice. Don't buy your feedback, earn it and if you want to be a LEGO businessman you need to have LEGO sales!
So, we can see that this set has some good value in it even though it has an extremely high price per piece ratio. But what of the potential growth in the set? Out of this entire theme, three sets really catch my eye and those three are the ones I feel will do the best. This set, stagecoach and the train. This little pack is similar to the Star Wars battle packs. I have a feeling a year after retirement this set is going to easily double in value and hopefully continue to increase to around $26-$28 at it's peak.
The Cavalry men alone can be used to create one hell of a scene later down the road when people realize that they can start building one. Collectors are going to wish they had purchased these retail but they will be left to the secondary market. As an investor, you're going to be the one that wants to be there for them in their time of need.
Overall, I rate this set a big 10! It's the first set I have given a ten too! It has so much potential, it's already yielding profits now, eventually it will catch a discount and that will leave you with no more excuses to pick this up! When the time comes, my man-closet will be holding a small stock pile of these for sure!

The second set up is 79107 The Comanche Camp. I have actually participated in building this set but we do not own it. I will say right off the bat that the tent doesn't securely stay down that well, at least it didn't for us. Here is what is included with this nifty set though:
Three Mini-Figures ​Tonto(Really cool head piece with the bird on top) The Lone Ranger Red Knee(Another very unique head piece) Tent Campfire with fish Few Weapons A Canoe and Row This is another set that has the potential to be broken down and re-sold. Quite a few of these pieces are already selling on eBay and yielding some fine results. By the looks of it a couple bucks profit could be made and potentially 7 feedback opportunities. It's worth it to add free shipping and 1 day handling time In order to get the 20% off discount. This will save you quite a bit of money down the line when you want to off-load that pallet of $100.00 Helms Deep sets you just stocked up on. So keep that in mind!
The set is pretty neat and definitely fits the age group. The Indian theme is really cool and have a couple of tents in your collection would be nice so as a collector I could see why someone would want to own this set. To me, this set is priced a little high, not to say $20.00 is high but I feel like we all will have the chance to grab this in the $15-$17.00 range soon enough. So be patient! Patience is the key with all Lego investments, remember that!
As far as overall growth of this set I don't see it doing as well as some of the others, but I do see it performing well enough to invest in. When the price drops, grab a handful of these and sit on them until the appropriate time. I'll grab at least ten and won't feel bad doing so!

Next up we have 78108 Stagecoach Escape. This set is very cool and it was also the one that I personally wanted to get the most out of the theme. It's the first time I have seen a Lego stagecoach and it's very cool once built too! I think the fact that the is the only (could be an older stagecoach from the western theme) recent Stagecoach set out that it will hold value just on that. It's built well and holds together, I thought the wheels would come off easily; however, it's the exact opposite. I can barely get the wheels off! Included in this set:
Five Mini-Figures ​Lone Ranger(which can be found in 3 other sets) Tonto(which can also be found in 3 other sets) Red Harrington(A unique figure to this set! Very cool design with one white leg and one red) Jesus(A unique figure to this set! Has a brown cowboy hat and red bandana) Barrett(A unique figure to this set as well! Has a cool chest piece) Two Black Horses Some accessories, including a letter and a wheel handle to turn the chest open and a silver bar Overall, this set has a lot of potential. With three unique figures, a really well built stagecoach and the perfect addition to the The Lone Ranger Theme I think we will see some good profits here. When it comes to thinking of a westernized world the first few things that come to mind are cowboys, Indians, horses and stagecoaches. This is an iconic piece and will help drive prices up. Who wouldn't want a stagecoach in their collection?

79109 Colby City Showdown is next on our list. I haven't seen this set built in person yet so all of my evaluations are from the help of Google. Included in this set we get two buildings a small wagon and five mini-figures. The two buildings are a Bank and a Sheriff's station. Overall the buildings are very cool and would be a excellent addition to any Lego city constructed. On top of the Sheriff's building the wall folds down and a cannon can shoot off little pieces. I love these cannons, they are a lot of fun. The bank isn't quite as detailed on the outside as the Sheriff's station but there is a lot to offer from the inside. A small vault with Lego money bricks is a nice touch. Inside the Sheriff's station we get a small cell that opens and closes. Here's whats included in this 587 piece set:
5 Mini-figures ​The Lone Ranger(which is available in the four sets) Tonto(whom is available in three sets) Dan Reid(which is a unique figure included only In this set) Frank(another unique figure that's included only in this set) Ray(yet another unique figure included in this set...whom happens to wear a cool bowler hat) Some of the accessories include: a brown box, cannon, ladder, green money bricks, dynamite,barrel, a small key, a plump brown sack, handcuffs, a small bush and a bottle. This set definitely offers quite a bit of little things that really help make it a nice set overall. I don't personally own this set but I think beyond the three that I do own this will be my fourth. Also, I think this has quite a bit of potential for future growth. Buildings usually do very well and especially when the set includes multiple buildings. This set In particular includes two pretty cool looking designs that have some function and overall curb appeal to them! Add in the three mini-figures and you are looking at a real winner here!

Next up on our list is 79110 Silver Mine Shootout. With 644 pieces this little set is a decent size. I recently saw it put together at my local Lego Store. Retails for $69.99 which makes it about 10 cents a piece. Not too shabby. From what I could tell the overall look of this was pretty neat. The tan, brown and grey blocks really help construct the mine. The rail in the middle is pretty cool and the water entrance on the left hand side was a very nice touch! Here's what's included:
Five Mini-figures ​Chief Big Bear(A unique figure to this set, looks really neat. Absolutely love the headpiece with the hair coming down in the front.) Butch Cavendish(Awesome looking mini-figure that is unique to this set. Slick black hat with a neat design of a suit on the mid section and legs. Has long hair as well.) Kyle(Also appears only in this set, has a red bandana attached and a brown hat.) The Lone Ranger(In a new outfit. He is wearing his Mine Outfit which makes it unique as well!) Tonto(Also in a new outfit, the mine one. Unique as well) Accessories included are: longhorn skull, a "Keep out" sign, small barrel, window shutters, a piece that resembles water falling, a ladder, a dozen weapons and a neat pulley system As previously explained this little mine is a pretty good size, much bigger than I had imagined when I first saw pictures of it. There is a lot to do and a lot going on at the same time. I feel that this was a really good design on Lego's part. This could easily be complimented with some of the other sets especially the Colby City Showdown. With five unique mini-figures the worth of this set could really grow into something worthwhile. My advice is keep a close eye on this one and if it dips below 30% try and scoop up as many as possible. If this scene becomes a crucial part of the movie it may change the overall value of the set as well.

The last set we will be looking at is one of the more important ones. The set I feel will likely have the most potential and the best growth. That is 79111 Constitution Train Chase. This set provides us with one awesome looking train and a good amount of track to let it ride on. We also get quite a few mini-figures and accessories. I feel its priced right because it's a train. The price per piece ratio is a little high compared to some of the other sets at 14 cents each. But if you aren't absolutely sure which Lone Ranger set to invest in, pick this one! Here's why:
7 Mini Figures ​The Lone Ranger(found in other sets) Tonto(found in other sets) Rebecca Reid(unique to this set) Danny Reid (unique to this set) Butch Cavendish(Has a different outfit making it unique) Latham Cole(Unique to this set) Captain Fuller(Unique to this set) 16 Curved Tracks 4 Straight Track One hell of a train A Gatling Gun! Horse, Barrel, a handful of accessories and weapons. Do yourself a favor and pick this up! This is probably the first Gatling Lego gun I have seen! That alone may drive some extra worth into this. Some of the other weapons include a rifle, sword, slingshot and revolvers. There are lots of little pieces that really help make this set what it is. The locomotive though is very authentic looking, very detailed and can easily be displayed. I absolutely love it and we purchased this to own. I don't foresee this dropping in price much unless you can catch it on some kind of sale. My advice is you can't go wrong with this piece. Pick up a dozen, hell two dozen and you will double your money back easily. Trains never fail in the Lego world, people love Lego trains plain and simple. Do some research and deep dive into the locomotive sets and you will find this out yourself. What makes this train so unique is the age that it represents. It's very much detailed and presentable, I have had many of my friends ask me about it. We currently have it displayed in my office. Don't waste anytime, pick this up now!
So, we have taken a close look at each and every set in The Lone Ranger minus the small polybags which haven't been discussed. The overall consensus that I have found is that this theme has some true potential. The movie really needs to succeed though and help win the audience and children over to go buy these sets. Some of the sets will sell regardless like the Locomotive one and the Cavalry Builder set. But others will truly rely on the movie for their sales. I'm not sure how the film will do and I'm not convinced of the idea yet but I will say The Lego Group has produced six wonderful sets that are all very detailed and very well put together. Whoever thought these up were geniuses. My kid loves them, I love them, and everyone overall loves them. While the theme may be a hit or miss the sets included are golden. They can hold up on their own and that alone show profits in my eyes. Give it some time, see how the audience rates the movie and then start planning out your investment strategy. My advice, grab a lot of the train chases and Cavalry Builder sets and a handful of the Stagecoaches and you won't go wrong.
I hope you enjoyed our little trip through the Lone Ranger theme taking us back to the Wild Wild West. I also hope that what I have provided above will help you make the right decision when the time comes. What we have here is a very unique theme with a lot of "first timer" sets and pieces. There are some iconic pieces that will really be wanted later on in life, especially that Stagecoach. Not to mention, every army needs some cannons and you can never have too many Gatling Guns! Hi Ho Silver-O I hope you enjoyed the show!


 
Bo and Luke Duke, the eponymous leads of the early 80's hit TV show The Dukes of Hazzard, were two rural Georgia “good ol’ boy” moonshiners that were always on the run from the show’s villain, Hazzard County Commissioner “Boss” Hogg. The show's story arc revolved around the efforts of Hogg and his sidekick, Roscoe P. Coltrane, to intimidate the Duke cousins into leaving them alone to hatch their nefarious, and often times illegal, schemes. Inevitably, Bo and Luke would wriggle out of Hogg’s grasp and thwart his plans, leaving “Boss” frustrated from another stunt gone awry.
Bo’s and Luke’s travails provide a humorous parallel to the recent plight of Lego resellers. While resellers aren’t doing anything illegal (like moonshining), and The Lego Company (TLC) isn’t nearly as bumbling or nefarious as the oft-thwarted Hogg, there seems to be an emerging “cat and mouse” game akin to our favorite 80’s show plots between TLC and Lego resellers. In the recent past, Lego has made a number of decisions that could have a profound effect on the secondary market, and they still have other options that could further alter the resale market. To date, the biggest red flag for investors should be Lego’s recent crackdown on resellers. In the past, TLC allowed wholesale buyers to resell sets in any manner they chose, and many enterprising folk used eBay, Bricklink, Amazon, and other online marketplaces to sell these sets. Some flipped these sets quickly for retail price, while others bought and held until EOL for larger profits. However, TLC recently decided to stop this practice by limiting sales to retailers with a brick and mortar retail store, and forcing every retailer to sell 75% of their sets. After instituting this policy, TLC has now begun to flag buyers that make high volume purchases from Lego S@H and The Lego Store, and halted sales to these perceived resellers. In a year, TLC has swung the pendulum hard against resellers, and there’s no reason to believe it will stop.
So, what else will TLC do to discourage reselling and make Bo's and Luke's life miserable? In simple terms, TLC can either try to limit demand, or increase supply. I have a hard time believing TLC would specifically ever try to limit demand of their own product, even in the secondary market, so their primary weapon is to alter supply. Other industries have found ways to accomplish this in a variety of ways that TLC could emulate, so here are some that may apply:
Re-releasing retired sets
While there is little precedent for this, it’s an option open to TLC and one they may be testing soon. Remember 7641 City Corner? It’s a set from the City theme that was released in 2009 and retired in 2011. It has enjoyed a profitable retirement, earning a nearly 85% ROI in a little under two years. According to Brickset.com, this set is scheduled to be released again soon under a new number, 60031. Everything else about the set appears to be the same: piece count, design and box all appear to be unchanged.
What will a re-release do to the secondary market value of an existing set? FCBarcelona and Grolim, BP members and bloggers extraordinaire, have already outlined the effect “remakes”, or models that underwent a makeover, have had on retired sets in this blog (look for any entries with “Remake”), and this post respectively. To paraphrase, remakes were found to decrease the value of retired sets, and in some cases significantly. By extrapolating that concept, and by using our own common sense, we can assume releasing the exact same set a second time would crater the secondary value of the existing set. If TLC decides to begin re-releasing more retired sets to discourage speculative hoarding, investors could be left holding sets for a lot longer than originally planned. Even the threat of a strategic re-release or two may discourage investors from hoarding. In this scenario, investing in licensed sets would likely become more popular since TLC wouldn't be able to re-release any set with a retired license.
Authorized Lego Reseller
TLC could also get into the secondary market game to control retired set pricing. If this sounds absurd, keep in mind that many US sports teams have opened sanctioned ticket reselling portals for their own event tickets to curb scalping problems. A secondary market platform run by TLC could provide Lego a second “bite at the apple” and effectively set retired prices, especially on the low end. This is probably an unrealistic option since resale isn’t part of their core business, and I doubt TLC would divert any effort or resources from their core competency. Yet, it still remains an option to TLC, and it would likely have disastrous consequences for hoarders.
Eliminate Exclusives
Another way to tamp down the secondary market is to eliminate “exclusives” and “limited edition” sets. These are sets with limited production runs and a history of strong secondary market returns. While this would be a radical departure from their marketing strategy and is highly unlikely to happen, it would likely weed out a large percentage of the highest earning EOL performers. TLC would likely lose a substantial portion of their adult fan base if they ever did this, so I doubt they would ever consider this an option.
Flood the Primary Market
Another bullet in TLC’s arsenal is to flood the primary market with their sets, yet the severe negative consequences for TLC’s products and retail partners make this tactic less probable than any of the previous options. While this tactic would primarily affect hoarders, the resultant decrease in price from a flood of new sets could be a boon to flippers who sell in higher volumes for smaller margins. Imagine the falling prices on Amazon if TLC doubled production! I don’t believe TLC would enact any policy that would benefit one group of resellers at the expense of another group, and I know they would never knowingly reduce the perceived value of the Lego product line by increasing supply of their sets. This will not happen either.
Right of First Refusal
In the timeshare industry, timeshare and vacation club companies that sell properties often times add Rights of First Refusal into their contracts with new timeshare owners. This clauses forces ANY owner of the timeshare that wants to sell the property to give the timeshare/vacation club operator “first dibs” on buying the property from the seller, and allows the timeshare/vacation club operator to set the price for their resale properties. While this option is logistically impossible for TLC and their near-commodity products, it’s illustrative of another option a company has to set or control the price of their resale merchandise.
While TLC may be emerging as a primary threat to resellers, there are still other hazards that face Lego investors today. These threats are all derived from either an increase in market supply, or a drop in market demand.
While it’s been well chronicled in past blog articles, a speculative bubble always remains a possibility. However, it's important to define exactly what a speculative bubble is so that Brickpickers understand its risk. A speculative bubble, by definition, occurs when the value of a product greatly exceeds its “intrinsic value”. This increase in value can be fueled by speculation, by the presence of monetary liquidity in the market, or both. While “intrinsic value” is an abstract term, it’s easy to estimate it. Since a Lego set is nothing more than the sum of its parts, its “intrinsic value” is the part-out price. A quick look at Bricklink.com shows investors the value of a parted-out Lego set based upon sold prices of these pieces. Without reviewing every Lego set’s part-out price, a quick glance shows that many sets never perform as well as their part-out value. Until a large percentage of just-retired Lego sets are selling for significantly higher prices than their part-out value, there will not be a speculative bubble for Lego as a whole. That doesn’t mean a bubble will NEVER happen, so check the part-out values of your preferred investment themes sporadically to see if you notice a divergence between Brickpicker's value and the part out value.
Another potential threat to the Lego secondary market is the refinement of 3d printing. BP member Yellow eloquently outlined concerns from 3D printing here, yet I believe that 3D printing’s physical constraints make copying Lego bricks nearly impossible, especially in the next 5-10 years. Lego uses ultra-precise injection molding with tolerances that are many factors tighter than current 3D printing can provide. Without meeting these tolerances, 3D printed bricks will not bite or grab like an injection-molded brick, rendering these copies useless to Lego fans.
Finally, if the demand for a product in any market erodes, both the primary and secondary market prices will suffer, and previously realized ROIs will erode in step. In our case, this actually can be roughly verified by reviewing sales figures from TLC’s annual report. While it doesn’t specify a split between theme sales, you can monitor yearly sales figures and read the notes to get TLC’s opinion on why sales have reacted accordingly. Fortunately, TLC appears to be successfully designing new product lines, opening new licenses, and exploring new distribution channels for its brand, so any demand erosion would have to come from an external market shock which is nearly impossible to predict.
The Lego secondary market is not foolproof, and it’s not riskless. Threats to this market will always emerge, so it’s incumbent on the savvy investor to continuously monitor the market for clues to where it’s going. Savvy investors, much like Bo and Luke, will continue to escape "Boss" Hogg, and make money!
As always, invest accordingly.
 
In this entry of our BrickIndex Spotlight section we will be analyzing yet another set from the Ultimate Collector's Series, even if this one is a model that is not particularly talked about much in the forums.
In the latest data update, the Imperial AT-ST place in the Top 5 of best performing sets over the past 6 months. First of all, the model included a little more than 1,000 pieces making it one of the smallest sets released under the UCS. This in and on itself is not necessarily a bad thing, as the really small Naboo Starfighter would gladly remind us. The MSRP for the set was $ 80 since its release in 2006, so it was also pretty affordable.
I was not really paying too much attention at LEGO investing or collecting at that point in time, so I really can't comment on what kind of reception the model got from the community. Having said that, we are here not so much to recount the past but rather to analyze the present trends to determine the future prospects of the set, so let's get to the numbers from the past two years and then focus a little more into more recent data.
 

As one would expect, the trend of this set since 2011 has been a very positive one, especially significant when you consider that the set retired sometime in 2009. From 2011 to now, the set has increased almost 114%, while in the past year it has gone up a very respectable 49%. Let's close in the more recent data, and along with the information above try to determine where the set may be going in the near future.

 

Over the past 12 months, this set has been the second best selling of the entire UCS when you consider only retired sets with almost 400 copies (new and used). The only model that tops that figure is the recently retired Imperial Shuttle, that considering it was widely available at retail over the past year is no surprise that it is in the top spot. This information tells us that the Imperial AT-ST is a very popular and really good seller in the secondary market, be it for the vehicle it is based in or just because it currently is one of the most affordable UCS sets that have been retired.
On the second graph you will see the changes in market value of the set over the last year. The AT-ST has been going up in value for most of the past 12 months, with the notable exception in the month of December when you can clearly see the December Effect once again hitting a big set pretty hard as far as value is concerned. Other than that, the set is now closing in to being worth $ 250, and with a 8% increase over the past month I would not be surprised if it reached that amount this month.
So, what can we do all this information? I can tell you that a lot of investors could take advantage of the relative affordable price of this set even in MISB condition. I see a lot of room for growth, and if you pay attention you will notice that the pace seems to be picking up, with the set increasing 50% over the past year but 31% over the past six months AND 8% over the past month alone! This model is still a great investment for those with the capital and storage space, but you better act fast!
Recommendation: Strong Buy
 
Happy 4th of July to everyone Stateside, and happy Thursday to everyone else! I wanted to update my blog with an admittedly overdue post. Today, I wanted to point everyone's attention to a very interesting recent trend I have been following: the deals on Technic that have recently been posted on Amazon UK. I have actually taken advantage of two of the recent sales and I couldn't be happier. Yet, the more I've picked through Lego listings on Amazon UK, the more Technic deals appear to have popped up. In the past month, here are the sets, MSRP, and sales pricing we've seen on Technic sets alone:
These prices include shipping costs to the US
Set #/Name - MSRP US - Amazon UK pricing GBP/USD - % discount
9396 Rescue Helicopter - $120.00 - £46.61 / $69.92 - 42%
9398 4x4 Crawler - $200.00 - £88.28 / $132.42 - 34%
42006 Excavator - $79.99 - £36.62 / $54.93 - 31%
42007 Moto Cross Bike - $39.99 - £18.86 / $28.29 - 29%
9395 Tow Truck - $69.99 - £36.61 / $54.92 - 22%
9392 Quad Bike - $39.99 - £21.62 / $32.43 - 19%
Let's all marvel at the discounts on the top three items on this list: 42%, 34%, 31% and 29% are great discounts for North American buyers, yet across-the-board THEME discounts like this are nearly impossible to find. Frankly, the smaller sets would have great discounts as well if the £4.95 shipping cost didn't eat up so much of the discount.
This blog post is not intended to be an advertisement for AmazonUK. The real question is why do these awesome discounts exist? While I don't have a concrete answer, there are a few factors working in favor of the North American buyer:
1. VAT, or "Value Added Tax", the EU's version of sales tax, isn't charged to North American buyers. Yet, when you're surfing the AUK website, all of the list prices include VAT. According to BP member and Amazon UK afficionado ph4tb0i, VAT is 20% of the retail price.
2. Shipping is £4.95 to North America, regardless of the size of weight of the Lego set. That roughly $7.50, a pretty good price for large sets. If you order additional sets, the shipping price drops to £2 ($3) for each additional unit, a very reasonable price.
3. In the UK, MSRP prices for Technic sets are on par with, or in some instances better than, US prices. 42007 Moto Cross Bike is in fact cheaper for UK buyers: retail price is $37.49 (£24.99) in UK versus $39.99 in US. This goes against a LOT of what buyers have been conditioned to believe about Lego pricing, and in the end it helps North American buyer discounts on these sets.
So why the discounts? Honestly, I have no idea. Looking at the most recent new eBay sales on Brickpicker, it's amazing to me how many sales have been in the EU: of the 30 listings, 27 were from Europe! I assume it's because this set is significantly discounted on the Amazon Euro sites, but what's driving the price drop on Amazon Euro listings? Well, there's one primary reason for sustained, across the board discounts like these: either these sets aren't selling quickly, or Amazon ordered too many sets. I couldn't even fathom a guess why demand for these sets appears depressed, but they are.
Whatever the reason, North American buyers should add all Technic sets to their Amazon UK Wish Lists and CamelCamelCamel accounts to track their values.
A word of caution must be raised about past experiences with shipping damage to Amazon UK merchandise, it appears that Amazon UK has heard the complaints and have taken steps to fix the shipping problems. From my experience, echoed in the forums recently by other BP members, the boxes being used by Amazon UK now use thicker cardboard, providing much better protection. That said, damage can still occur, and if it does it's a pain to ship these sets back. Also, Amazon UK will not reimburse you for these shipping costs until they receive the package back so they can hold your shipping costs for a couple of weeks.
North American buyers, keep an eye peeled in the forum and on the Amazon UK website for future Technic deals. With some exciting sets on the horizon (I'm looking at you, 42009 Mobile Crane MKII), this just might be the place to grab a few at a discount!
 
For over a century the cowboy has been the iconic American image recognized around the world, and the American “Old West” has been celebrated in art, music, literature, and of course movies and television programs. Long after the short-lived era of open range and long cattle drives came to an end, we still continue to admire and celebrate the stories and characters born out of that time. Popular representations may be more romantic than realistic, but they never seem to lose their appeal.
I grew up watching Westerns on TV. The Rifleman, Wagon Train, High Chaparral, Rawhide and The Virginian were among my favorite shows. I liked the independent, self-reliant spirit of the pioneers, and the fact that you could always tell the good guys from the bad guys, and the bad guys always got what was coming to them in the end.
I loved Westerns then, and I still love them today. So I suppose it’s only natural that I find myself drawn to the LEGO Western theme. I missed out on the Western sets of 1996-97 because I was, sadly, still in my Dark Ages. But with the recent release of the Lone Ranger movie tie-in sets, it seemed like a good time to revisit the history of the Western theme. Perhaps knowing more about this theme in general will help us judge the potential returns of these new sets. Since I didn’t have the opportunity to own these sets myself, I’ve based my opinions about them on research. I think this has given me a pretty good feel for what each set is like.
Overview
Western wasn’t the first Wild West-styled LEGO theme, but it was the first to use the new minifigures. The earlier sets such as 620 Wild West Scene (1975) and 617 Cowboys (1975) both included the old LEGOLAND Minifigures.
The storyline of the sets from 1996 focused on sheriffs battling against outlaws, as well as the presence of the cavalry. The town, called Gold City, consisted of a sheriff’s office, a bank, and a general store. The town served mainly as a target for the bandits, rather than to portray civilian life of the period. There was also an abandoned mine outside the city which the bandits used as a hideout. The cavalry was based in a fort cleverly named Fort LEGOREDO.
In the theme’s second (and last) year, the Indians became a major part of the theme. Their home was Rapid River Village. They are apparently intended to portray a tribe of Plains Indians, however the inclusion of a totem pole in a couple of the sets is an indication that stereotypes took precedence over accuracy in that portrayal.
You may have noticed that there is a definite similarity between the Western theme and the new Lone Ranger theme. Like the Western theme, the Lone Ranger theme focuses on good guys versus bandits, and the town, with it’s only buildings being a Sheriff’s Office and a Bank, serves only as a backdrop for the activities of the bandits rather than including any ordinary townspeople. Also note the commonality of the mines, and the presence of cavalry and Indians. The chief differences that I see are the lack of a large fort among the Lone Ranger sets, and the inclusion of a very nice train set instead. (As a side note, all things considered I think I prefer the train, which is very authentic-looking. I can always build a moc fort if I want the cavalry soldiers to have a more respectable base of operations.)
Now let’s look at the main Western sets individually.
6706 – Frontier Patrol

DESCRIPTION:
Frontier Patrol, released in 1997, contains 26 pieces. It is made up of 3 minifigures: a Cavalry Colonel riding a black horse, a Cavalry Lieutenant, and a Cavalry Soldier. Accessories include two rifles, one pistol, a flag, a bugle, and a saber. It also includes a green bush. One of the more interesting pieces in this set is the dynamite, which is represented by a picture printed on a 1x2 white tile. There are no structures includes in this set.
For purposes of comparison, I would consider it to be comparable to the current Lone Ranger Cavalry Builder set.
ANALYSIS:
This is one of the better-performing sets of this series, with ROI of 463% and a CAGR of 11.4%. However, with an original price of $5.99, one would need to have stockpiled quite a few of these sets to make a sizable profit on them.
6709 – Tribal Chief

DESCRIPTION:
Tribal Chief is an Indians set released in 1997. This is another very small set, which consists only of one minifigure (the Tribal Chief), his horse, a green bush, and a black snake, for a total of 14 pieces. The horse is unique in that it is a pinto rather than the plain brown, black or white horses in most other sets, decorated with a colorful blanket under the saddle and a feather on the bridle.
ANALYSIS:
This set hasn’t done too badly, with an ROI of 377% and a 10.26% CAGR. Again, however, because it is a very small set with an MSRP of only $3.99, an investor would need to have purchased a large number of them to realize a meaningful actual return.
6712 - Sheriff’s Showdown

DESCRIPTION:
Sheriff’s Showdown was released in 1996 (although one source noted that it wasn’t released until 1997 in North America). Another small set focused on characters rather than setting, it contained 26 pieces, including 2 minifigures, the Sheriff and outlaw Black Bart. It also includes one black horse, a campfire with a frying pan, a large brown barrel, a green bush, a rifle, a pistol, and one of the printed dynamite tiles.
ANALYSIS:
This set is another mid-range performer, with an ROI of 409% and a CAGR of 10%. It is also one of the smallest sets, with an MSRP of $3.99, which means that its high ROI doesn’t translate into a large dollar return unless the investor happened to stock up on a lot of these sets.
6716 – Weapons Wagon

DESCRIPTION:
The Weapons Wagon, released in 1996, contains 63 pieces and includes one minifigure, a generic Cavalry Soldier in the standard blue uniform, kepi, and white kerchief. It boasts a nice Conestoga wagon, unique to this set, with the cavalry emblem of crossed sabers printed on the cloth cover. It also has one brown horse (pulling the wagon) and a cannon (non-shooting).
ANALYSIS:
Like most of the sets in this theme, this one has show a modest increase in value, with ROI of 300% and a CAGR of 8.58%.
6718 – Raindance Ridge

DESCRIPTION:
Raindance Ridge, released in 1996, is another of the Indian-themed sets. It’s one of the smaller sets at 74 pieces. It contains 2 minifigures: a generic tan-shirted Indian and a Medicine Man. It also has one of the special printed Indian horses and a tree stump. Other pieces of note are the tomahawk and colorful shield, a gray bird, a green plant, a spring, and 2 black snakes. It also features a totem pole, which is out of place considering that these figures are clearly intended to represent Plains Indians.
ANALYSIS:
This set has more than tripled in value since its release. Over time, however, it has a CAGR of just over 9%, which places it in the category of moderate return.
6746 – Chief’s Tepee

DESCRIPTION:
Chief’s Tepee, which was released in 1997, is a medium-size Indian-themed set with 134 pieces and 3 minifigures. The minifigures in this set are a Chief, a red-shirted Indian, and a female Indian. It also includes one of the specially painted horses, and 2 tepees, each made of a decorated cloth outer covering wrapped around 2 poles. Other pieces of interest include bows and arrows, snakes, painted shields, plants, and a tree stump. Also present is an anachronistic totem pole.
ANALYSIS:
This set has more than doubled in value. With a CAGR of 8.45%, it has been a moderate performer.
6748 – Boulder Cliff Canyon

DESCRIPTION:
Boulder Cliff Canyon is another Indian set released in 1997. In contains 250 pieces with 6 Indian minifigures, one of whom is a Medicine Man. It features a structure which represents the cliff referred to in the name of the set, which features a large boulder, lots of plants, a ladder, black snakes, and a bird (which is shaped, rather incongruously, like a parrot, but is molded in grey). It also has a teepee, a canoe, a hollow tree stump, a campfire, two of the decorated pinto Indian ponies, and a totem pole (also rather incongruous given that these appear to be Plains Indians). All in all a nice set with a lot going on and good playability.
ANALYSIS:
This set has tripled in value compared to it’s original retail price of $39.99, which doesn’t sound too bad until you look at the CAGR, which is a modest 8.58%. Certainly not a loss, but not one of the top performers in this theme.
6755 & 6764 – Sheriff’s Lock-Up

DESCRIPTION:
The Sheriff’s Lock-up was released in 1996 and contains 170 parts and 4 minifigures. The minifigures are the Sheriff, a Red-Shirted Cowboy, a bad guy named Flatfoot Thompson, and a gambler named Dewey Cheatum. It features a sheriff’s office containing a safe and a desk, and a stand-alone jail cell. It also has one white horse, 3 rifles, 4 pistols, a barrel, a green bush, a dynamite printed tile, a wanted poster printed tile, a tile printed with a hand of cards, and gold coins. Perhaps the most interesting and unique feature of this set is the blow-away wall of the jail cell, which is triggered by inserting the dynamite tile into a slot, where it releases a tensioned Technic Shock Absorber.
ANALYSIS:
This set’s ROI of 342% is impressive, but because it was released way back in 1996, the CAGR is only a modest 9.14%. Not a shabby performance, but not outstanding compared to other LEGO sets.
The 2002 re-release of this set has done only slightly better than the original in terms of annual returns, with a CAGR of 9.62%. The price for a new set has gone up just over 170%. This is less than the original, but over a shorter time-frame. Hence the comparable CAGR. It’s also possible that the re-release of the set hurt the returns on the original by diluting the demand.
6761 – Bandits’ Secret Hideout

DESCRIPTION:
Bandits’ Secret Hideout, released in 1996, contains 238 pieces, including 5 minifigures. The minifigures, none of which are unique to this set, are bag guys Black Bart and Flatfoot Thompson, gambler Dewey Cheatum, a Cavalry Soldier, and a Cavalry Lieutenant. The Hideout is an abandoned gold mine, which is built on a baseplate with a curved road printed on it. There are also a separate rock formation, and a water barrel on a stand. Other accessories include 3 horses (1 white, 1 brown, 1 black), a cannon (non-shooting), a chrome gold bugle, 3 green bushes, a safe, gold coins, a printed playing cards tile, a “Keep Out” sign, a grey bird, a cavalry flag, a miner’s pick, 4 pistols, 8 rifles, and 2 sabers.
ANALYSIS:
This set hasn’t broken any records in terms of returns, with it’s value growing to an ROI of 236%, for a CAGR of 7.39%. Again, an investor could have done worse, but he also could have done a lot better.
6765 – Gold City Junction

DESCRIPTION:
Gold City Junction, released in 1996, contains 337 pieces and 6 minifigures. The minifigures are Black Bart, Red-Shirted Cowboy (aka Zack), the Banker, the Sheriff, a Cavalry Soldier, and Flatnose Curry. It features 2 buildings, a bank and a general store. Both buildings have the same kind of blow-out wall as the jail cell in the Sheriff’s Lock-up, which operate by sliding the dynamite tile into a slot to release tension from a Technic Shock Absorber. It also includes an open wagon drawn by 2 brown horses. Notable accessories include 2 fence sections, a barrel, an axe, a frying pan, 2 green bushes, a pick, a shovel, a grey bird, 6 pistols, 8 rifles, a black horse, and a canon that can be hooked to the back of the wagon.
I would say this set is comparable to the Lone Ranger’s Colby City Showdown set.
ANALYSIS:
As an investment this mid-priced set has performed modestly, with ROI of 180% and a CAGR of only 6.24%. An investor who bought this set has made money, but he could have made a lot more elsewhere.
6766 & 6763 – Rapid River Village

DESCRIPTION:
Rapid River Village was the first set to contain minifigures which represented racial characteristics. It contains 7 Indian minifigures: 1 Medicine Man, 1 Chief, and 5 generic Indians including 1 female.
Here’s the official LEGO description (from the 2002 version 6763):
You're the chief of Rapid River Village!
You control the secret cave, the watchtower, and tree trunks that fall at your command. Push one gray brick to the right and a trapdoor drops intruders into the secret cave! Push another gray brick back and drop logs through a second trap door. Includes two tepees, a canoe, campfires, totem pole, two horses, seven figures, and two hollow tree trunks to hide in.
ANALYSIS:
Despite being such a nice set and introducing the Indian characters to the theme, this set has been a relatively poor performer. With an ROI of only 165% and a CAGR of 6.29%, the returns aren’t anything to write home about.
Of the three sets re-released in 2002, this one has turned in the worst performance. The ROI of the remake is just under 40%, for a CAGR of a paultry 3.09%. This is also the only set of the three that has performed worse than the original. (Perhaps it was considered to be not “politically correct”?)
6769 & 6762 – Fort LEGOREDO

DESCRIPTION:
Fort LEGOREDO, released in 1996, consists of 668 pieces which include 10 minifigures. The re-release in 2002 has 673 pieces. The main feature of this set is the fort itself, which is built in four individual sections that can be rearranged. These sections are the front gate, a side wall, a second side wall with a gate, and the General’s office, which serves as the back section. The front gate is flanked by 2 guard towers, while the side gate has only 1. The General’s office is furnished with a fireplace which hides a secret hiding place and 2 armchairs which are each on a trap door. One trap door leads into the jail cell, and the other into another room. They are designed in such a way that only one can be operated at a time. The minifigures are: a Cavalry Colonel, 2 Cavalry Lieutenants, 2 Cavalry Soldiers, Red-Shirted Cowboy, Black Bart, Flatfoot Thompson, and Dewey Cheatum. Notable accessories include: a (black) horse-drawn limber with detachable gun, 2 mounted cow horns, 4 red birds, 5 green bushes, 1 set of stairs, 2 barrels, a dynamite printed tile, a playing cards printed tile, 5 pistols, 10 rifles, 3 sabers, 1 cavalry flag, gold coins, a brown horse, a white horse, and a chrome gold bugle.
ANALYSIS:
This set has more than doubled in value, but since this return is spread over 17 years, the CAGR is only 7.44%. As an investment, it’s better than leaving money sit in a savings account, but it isn’t a big winner when compared to the outstanding returns of other LEGO sets.
The 2002 re-release of this set (#6762) has done slightly better than the original in terms of its CAGR of 8.78%, but in real terms it has appreciated only by slightly more than 150%. This still puts it in the mid-range as far as performance.
6790 – Bandit’s Wheel Gun

DESCRIPTION:
The Bandit’s Wheel Gun is a small 21-piece set with 1 minifigure. The contents are identical to set 6791, with the only difference being that 6790 came packaged in a box, and 6791 came in a polybag. The set features a wheel gun built by fastening 2 rifles onto a carriage base, and minifigure Black Bart. It also comes with 2 pistols, a “Keep Out” sign, and a dynamite printed tile.
ANALYSIS:
This small set has shown very respectable gains, with a price that’s increased by more than 700% for a CAGR of 14.17%. In real terms, we’re only looking at a profit of $14.59, which puts things in a different perspective. Still, if you’d bought a hundred of them, you’d be sitting on a nice chunk of change. The downside: a hundred separate transactions. The upside: the small size makes them much easier to store and ship than the larger sets.
6791 – Bandit’s Wheel Gun
DESCRIPTION:
See Set 6790. (I don’t know why this same set was released with two different numbers.)
ANALYSIS:
This set hasn’t appreciated quite as much as it’s twin #6790, but it still offers respectable numbers, with ROI of over 500% and a CAGR of 12.09%.
6799 – Showdown Canyon

DESCRIPTION:
Showdown Canyon is a Bonus Pack released in 1997. It contains 2 small boxed sets packaged together in a larger box which could be converted into a playscape. Both these small sets were available only in this bonus pack.
The first set, a wagon carrying a safe, comes with 1 horse and 2 minifigures, a sheriff and another figure who could be either the driver or a deputy. Also included were 2 printed money tiles, a whip, a rifle and a revolver.
The second set is a small gun cart (made by attaching 2 rifles) and 2 minifigures, outlaws Black Bart and Flatfoot Thompson. They come with 3 pistols and a dynamite printed tile.
Once source notes that although the box was labeled as containing 69 pieces, there are in fact 75.
ANALYSIS:
With ROI of over 350% and a CAGR of 9.90%, this set falls somewhere in the middle range of return. Not great, but not bad, either.
CHART AND ANALYTICS
Summary and Conclusion
I don’t see the original Western sets as being a great investment at this point, as they’ve already seen significant gains. However, it will be interesting to see what happens with the new Lone Ranger sets. (At the time of this writing, the Lone Ranger movie upon which these new sets are based hasn’t been released yet, so it is still unknown what effect its popularity or lack thereof will have on the performance of the sets.) If they really take off, the older sets might benefit from renewed interest in the Western theme as a whole. Time will tell.
I think these sets are certainly worth looking at as far as adding them to one’s personal collection. They would be great fun to play with, and would make a nice display. For this use I would recommend looking for used sets to purchase to save money. Despite some differences in style, I think they would be suitable to combine with Lone Ranger sets to build a more elaborate Western scene. The Fort especially lends itself to this since, as mentioned above, the Lone Ranger sets do not include a fort, and it is uncertain at this time whether there will ever be a second wave of Lone Ranger sets with which to expand one’s collection.
 

 
 
Bigger is always better. Some of you may agree or disagree with that statement to some extent, but there is no denying that when it comes to LEGO investing, the larger the set, the greatest its possibilities of becoming a great performer.
In almost every aspect of life, people are usually very interested in figuring out what is the largest “anything”, as evidenced by the thousands and thousands of Top 10 or the like lists that have populated books and the internet over the course of history. Tallest buildings, waterfalls, mountains, etc. are just some examples of this. Most of the time, these lists are of almost no use to the public other than for entertainment value or, in some way, education, but when it comes to LEGO specifically, you will be very likely notice a positive correlation between the sets in these type of list, and the best investment sets over the past decade.
In this article, I will be talking mostly about the Large Scale Models theme, with some large and popular Sculptures sets mixed in, to help you understand a little bit more about their past performance and what I think made them so successful, so that you are better informed when thinking about spending more than $ 200 on one of these for investment purposes. Even though I will be focusing most of my analysis in the largest sets, there are also a couple of large scale models that are over 1,000 pieces but not quite as large as some of the others that will also be analyzed to some extent in the next couple of pages.
Large Scale models are almost always based on some real life structure, usually a well-known landmark, vehicles, planes or things of that sort. The models included in this theme are mostly targeted to appeal to the AFOL and the serious collector, given their high level of detail, great display value, and usually MSRP. You can probably relate some of these characteristics to some of the other adult oriented themes, most notably Architecture, that even though it can’t be compared to the magnitude of large scale models, it does present almost all of them to a smaller scale, no pun intended.
However, there are a couple of other factors where the sets in this theme are more appealing than the rest, and one of them is in the Price per Piece department, where some of the largest sets provide you a lot of bang for your buck. We will examine some of these sets later on, but just give you an idea, the 10189 Taj Mahal and 10214 Tower Bridge’s price per piece ratios are $ 0.05 and $ 0.06, respectively, a figure that is well below most other LEGO sets. The other one, equally important, is that even when these sets retire and skyrocket in value in the secondary market, the large amount of pieces you get for your money can make a large purchase a little easier to swallow. It is not the same to pay $ 700 for a set with 1,000 pieces than the same amount for one with 4,000.
Before going into specifics, let’s take a look at the list of the 10 largest LEGO sets ever produced up to this point and also take a look at the theme’s overall performance numbers:
1- 10189 Taj Mahal
2- 10179 UCS Millenium Falcon
3- 10214 Tower Bridge
4- 10188 Death Star
5- 10143 Death Star II
6- 10181 Eiffel Tower
7- 10196 Grand Carousel
8- 10221 Super Star Destroyer
9- 10030 Imperial Star Destroyer
10- 3450 Statue of Liberty
As you can see, I highlighted the Large Scale Models/Sculpture sets in the list above, where they constitute exactly half of the list, the other half being all UCS Star Wars sets. As you will see later, all of them have been excellent performers once retired (Tower Bridge is still currently available).
Let’s now go a little into the theme’s overall numbers.
According to Brickpicker’s data, the Large Scale Model’s average CAGR is 22.37 %, earning it the 11th place in that regard. One thing you need to keep in mind is that this number is including sets of the theme that are currently available, so if we take out those and examine only those that have been retired we come up with a much higher 29.84 %. It is clear this sets are one of the most popular with LEGO fans!
With all that behind us, let’s take a look at the more popular and largest sets individually.
10189 Taj Mahal


 
Comments: Largest LEGO set EVER produced with almost 6,000 pieces. The finished model is just too impressive for me to be able to make it justice in a few words, so I’ll focus mostly on its numbers and let you buy one out of eBay so you can see it for yourself . The UCS Millenium Falcon is most of the time the set that is mentioned the most in the LEGO investment community, and for good reason, but this model really is not too far behind 10179. With an extremely low price per piece ratio, this set has grown at over 35 % EACH YEAR (CAGR) since 2008, a number that almost no investment out there is able to achieve even in only 1 specific year, and certainly not with the low risk LEGO sets usually present. Even more, the Taj continues to grow steadily in value, despite presenting some short periods of drops in market value as evidenced by April’s decline, with a 6 month growth of around 13 %. Sale activity is also pretty high and consistent for a set over $ 1,000.
10181 Eiffel Tower


 
Comments: One of the most recognizable landmarks in the entire world, this impressive model is more than one meter tall (sorry guys, where I come from we use the metric system lol). While this set comes with over 3,000 pieces, there is really not as much variety as you would think. Despite its great looking appearance and size, it seems that this set is not named as much as some of the others on this list, something I find very interesting. The set took a large hit in the month of December, and even though it has gone up some after that, it still has not recovered to the level it used to be. Still, with a current market value of over $1,000, a CAGR over 30% and a total change over retail of around 400%, this set’s performance can’t be judged by a short term bump. In fact, the last 4 New 10181 sold on eBay have gone for an average of $ 1,150 indicating it may not take too long for this set to go back up to where it was before…and probably even higher.
10196 Grand Carousel


Comments: An extremely great looking and unique model this carousel has sounds, movements and some very rare parts, including the “cloth” like parts that cover the upper section. Growth wise, this set has been going up consistently over the past few months, almost 50 % over the past year alone! This is more than likely going to continue in the near future, as I think this set really didn’t get as much attention while it was still available and now a lot of people seem to be interesting in purchasing it. I can’t blame them, it really is an unique set.
3450 Statue of Liberty


Comments: This well-known landmark has been retired for more than a decade and still manages to present a CAGR of more than 15 %, that’s more than ten years of solid, double digit growth. If you are into MOCs and need sand green bricks, then this would have been the set for you. Even more, given the age of the set, it is actually pretty rare to see one MISB listed on eBay, what leads to believe that the actual market value for this set is well above the one suggested in the price guide, at least for New ones. In fact, the only New listing on eBay right now sits at close to $ 5,000!
10213 Shuttle Adventure


Comments: This model is not really one of the largest ever, but it is also part of the Sculptures/Large Scale kind of set. Shuttle Adventure was re-released later as 10231 Shuttle Expedition, in order to fix some design issues of this first attempt. As a result, one would think that the original version may be harder to find than the remake over the next couple of years. It has only been a couple of months since the remake officially retired, so there is still a lot of room for the pair to increase substantially more in value, keeping in mind that both have already gone up by more than 50 % over retail.
Other than the sets I have described above, there are a couple of other large ones that fit into the criteria I wanted to examine, but given that I have already talked about most of them on some of my other articles, I decided to show you their performance on a summary table you will find next:

As you can see, all of the other sets I did no comment about have really similar numbers to those we have seen before. Several of them have CAGRs well above 20 %, and the two that don’t are really different from the rest AND have also been retired for a long while now, so the figure has had a lot of time to average down. So, to conclude this section, it seems pretty safe to say that sets that fit these criteria are as close as you are going to get to no risk investments (Based on historical data).
Now that we have analyzed the past of Large Scale Models, let’s now go ahead and examine the present.
10214 Tower Bridge

My Analysis: The Tower Bridge is the third largest set ever produced, based on raw piece count. The set, once complete, is really great looking and as detailed as all of the others have been up to this point. Even more, it also includes some micro cars built from actual bricks that give the set an even more realistic appearance. With a Price per Piece of $0.06, this set is a real bargain, especially if found discounted as it has been several times in the past months.
Another aspect to consider is that, even though it may not be as famous as the Taj or Eiffel Tower, the Tower Bridge of London is easily one of the world’s most well-known landmarks, so that should not be an issue to worry about too much. The only reason I mention this is because I know there are some people that just don’t see this structure as one of the most famous in the world, but I believe it actually is.
Value Prediction: As I said on my review of this set, given some of the changes that have been going on the LEGO investment market, specifically an increase in investors, I don’t see this set exactly replicating what previous Large Scale models like the Taj Mahal did in the secondary market. Having said that, I do expect the set to make considerable gains in value, probably performing with a CAGR of 19 % by the time it has been retired for two years. That is an above average performance that should make everyone who owns this set very happy!
 

*Graph assumes 2013 retirement.
With that we pretty much close all those sets that have been already retired and are currently available, so what does the future have in store for us?
10234 Sidney Opera House

Up to the date this article was written there had not been any official information about what possible set could be the next Large Scale Model, but rumors were hinting about the possibility of a 6,000 pieces Sidney Opera House. Since information about that set is official at this point, I felt the need to modify this last paragraph. Basically, the Sidney Opera House that was revealed a few weeks ago will have nowhere near the amount of pieces rumored, more like half, but that does not mean it won’t be an impressive set. From what we have seen so far, LEGO has finally been able to make a great recreation of the well-known landmark that from the images looks pretty large as well, The price may seem a little steep at first ($320), but considering that there are probably a large amount of large pieces it probably still is within the range of the overall theme when it comes to Price Per Weight. We’ll have to wait until the set is released to know more, but it sure looks like an investment winner at first sight.
So, to conclude, are big sets related to big profits in the secondary market? I think they are, and historical information seems to support this as well.
Thanks for reading.
*Title by Ed Mack*
 
For those of you who read my past review on the 10179 UCS Millenium Falcon, I will let you know upfront that this is mostly the same information I presented in the growth potential section. I decided to post it here because I believe it will get more exposure AND because in here you will be able to post your comments and feedback on my analysis. So, in summary, if you read my review you can go ahead and skip to go directly to the comments sections and let me know what you think, while if you didn't well, read on!
As you all know, the Ultimate Collector's Series Millenium Falcon is the single most successful investment over the course of LEGO's history, so I feel it is important to analyze some of the factors that helped its good performance, as well as the past and future trends for the set.
First of all, we can go ahead and compare the performance of the set to that of some other comparable SW UCS models:
 

What we have to evaluate in the table above is not so much the CAGR of the sets, since they have been retired for very different time periods, but rather the Holding Period Return (equivalent to % Change Over Retail). In this category, the UCS MF completely crushes any of the other two large sets by more than 100% in each case, a number that is very impressive when you consider the other two have had more time to grow AND had retail prices $100 less than the MF, so they would need to sell for not even close to what the MF is selling now to reach the same HPR. Also as said above, the average HPR for UCS sets is around 300%, so once again the MF is above average by a wide margin.
It is really not that much of a surprise to see that this set has outperformed most others, if not all the sets in the UCS. This is by far the most popular ship of the entire Star Wars universe, and that popularity translates to A LOT of people willing and able to make this set a part of their collection. You can be sure that any hard core Star Wars fan will need to get one of these to be able to say that the collection is complete, there is really no way around it. Another strength the set has going for it is how hard, expensive and time consuming it is to recreate 100%, as we examined on a previous section. Some parts are just extremely expensive, hard to find in the desired quantities, and the add-ons like the box, stickers and the instructions already cost more than most currently available UCS sets.
Now, I want to show you a graph that shows the % increases of each set above over the past two years to compare where the sets have been going in the relatively short term:

You can see in the graph above that the three sets have been experiencing similar trends when it comes to % changes. Logically, the farther back we go in history the larger the % change increase or decrease should be. If we go to where the MF was around 2011 we will see that of the three sets this was the one that grew the most in that period (2011-2013) with a % change of over 100% that, considering it was selling for around $1,000 by that time, is extremely impressive. It seems that over the past year the MF has increased more than the ISD (that has more years retired) but less than the DSII, that it's doing pretty well itself. Again, we have to remember that a 1% increase in the Millenium Falcon is almost double the amount of the same % increase in the other two sets.
With that out of the way, let's see where the Millenium Falcon has been going over the course of the past two years, as well as its sales trends over the past 12 months to figure out if it still is a worthy investment even at current market prices.

Very interesting graph. You see that the Millenium Falcon was selling at around $ 1,300 back in 2011 and in that short period of around 2 years the set has already doubled in value yet again. Those investors that had the foresight to invest in the set even when it seemed to be extremely expensive are now rewarded with a very nice ROI that at the same time is equivalent to a pretty substantial dollar amount. You can also see that the trend of this set continues to move up even in the short term, with it going up almost 6% relative to the past month alone. Of course, there are some fluctuations and periods of time in which the set has taken a dip in value as well, but overall the trend is upward and not the other way around.
Let's add this graph up with the one about sales numbers over the past 12 months:

In the graph above you will be able to see that even at this very expensive price the set continues to sell a very respectable amount of both new and used copies every single month. The lower we have seen over the past 12 months was in the past month of May, with "only" 6 new sets sold and around 7 used ones. For a set with such a high price tag I think that the eBay activity is another indicator of its huge popularity. What's more, as the holidays approach we will start seeing this number rise up again in the same way it did in 2012 (you can see the growth in sales in the graph starting in September and peaking in December). One thing I do want to mention is that as mentioned in one of my recent Blog Articles this type of sets is vulnerable to what I called the December Effect. Let's see the value changes over the past 12 months so you can see what I mean:

Take a look at the December values and you will clearly see that the set dropped to its lowest point in the last 12 month period. In fact, the set lost over 12% of its value between the month of November 2012 and December 2012. This seems to be a constant trend with this very large and expensive sets, as I explained in my article, probably as a result of the collector and AFOL spending most of the money in holiday purchases and gifts as well as a larger supply of sets in the market that occurs in part for the belief that December usually is the best time to sell. If you are interested in more detail you can go ahead and read the blog, but for now I just wanted you to see that for a seller of a UCS MF, December may very well be the worst time while for the buyer it may very well be the best.
Taking all the above information and putting it together leads me to believe that this set's future growth prospects continue to be outstanding. With the release of the new Star Wars movies and possibly other movies dedicated exclusively to the Millenium Falcon storyline the ship is probably going to be in the big screen yet again in the following years, increasing its popularity and therefore market demand even more. Another thing I wanted to mention is that even if LEGO goes ahead and decides to do a re-make of the MF as they did with the currently released X-Wing, I see very unlikely that they will produce a model that is even close in piece count, size, detail and price as the 10179. Even if the model is a $400 set with around 4,000 pieces (something that in and on itself I see unlikely if we take a look a TLG past releases over the last few years), the new model will still be short by more than 1,000 pieces and will more than likely be smaller in size and detail as well.
Furthermore, this set will continue to be the Top Choice for the hard core collector and AFOL, that I think is for sure the audience purchasing it now at over $2,000. Most of those people willing to pay that much for a LEGO set will continue to exist in the future and demand for this set will continue as a result. What's more, every single month we know that AT LEAST six news sets are sold and I would say that at least half of them gets opened and built, in turn reducing the future supply of sealed 10179s.
I really see this set continuing is fast growth for many years to come, and someone willing to take a risk with the expectation of a very big reward should consider putting some money into this set now before it gets even more expensive. What's the limit with this thing, you say? Of course, no one knows for sure, but history has proven that those who though $ 1,500 for a LEGO set was the highest it would go were very very wrong. $ 4,000, why not?
 
This entry is about the values for the two different UCS X-Wing Fighters and how the remake is affecting the values. There is a good article about the First Impressions of the set. Here is the link: http://www.brickpicker.com/forum/index.php/blog/5/entry-188-first-impressions-10240-ucs-x-wing-remake/
After one month of being on the market, both UCS sets have risen in value. This is very surpirsing. My personal thoughts were that the new UCS set would rise in value and that the old UCS set would decrease in value. I was wrong. Here is the data for both sets.
7191 UCS X-Wing Fighter:
Value:
New: $793.47, Up 2.15% from May 2013. Used: $285.29, Up 17.35% from May 2013. Both values for this set had increased in the past month.
10240 UCS Red Five X-Wing Starfighter:
Value:
New: $254.95, Up 1.98% from May 2013. Used: $173.50. Since the remake, I thought that there would be more people buying the newer UCS set because it was more avaiable, thus driving the value for the set up. Because of that factor, I thought the interest in the older UCS set was going down and there would be less sales and at lower prices, thus driving the value of the set downward. All of my thoughts are wrong at this point in time.
More data next month in July 2013 . . .
 
The Ninjago theme is one that has proven to be one of the most successful themes in LEGO's recent history, as evidenced by its first place in the Top Themes when considered CAGR. The theme has been a hit ever since it hit the shelves for the first time a couple of years ago, product of a mix of sets and a popular TV show, a combination LEGO hopes brings the same results with the released of the somewhat recent Legends of Chima.
Ninjago has been discussed and analyzed several times in this forum, so I wanted to focus this short blog article in a very specific type of set: those that include any of the dragons. I think it will be very interesting to see how all of the Ninjago sets that have included any kind of dragon have been greatly profitable in the secondary market, a fact that can help even the newbie investor to make good decisions and diversify into a theme they would not otherwise purchase for lack of familiarity with it.
I will be listing the sets from smallest to largest, by piece count:
- 30083 Dragon Fight

Comments: The smallest set of the bunch is actually a polybag that originally sold for $3.50 and was exclusive to Target. It included a very small dragon and one minifigure and presents a very decent CAGR, keeping in mind that the low MSRP makes it easier for sets like this to increase substantially in value. The polybag seems to have stabilized in value over the past few months, so if you are planning to get one or sell yours, now is as good a time as any.
- 2260 Ice Dragon Attack

Comments: The first and smallest (excluding the poly) dragon released under the Ninjago theme, this set has been pretty big when it comes to secondary market returns. The set lasted for less than a year on the shelves, and the fact that it was the first released dragon probably help it too to get to the point where it currently is, making it one of the most recent true sleeper sets.
The Ice Dragon remains very popular even more than a year after retirement, consistently selling around 20 sets per month. Most Ninjago collectors and fans more than likely missed out on this set, and if they want to complete their dragon or theme collection they are forced to acquire it at secondary market prices. The set hit a ceiling of around $ 90 this past holiday season, but since then it has lost around 16% of its value. However, once the holidays get going again and even more when the new Ninjago movie hits the theater my guess is that this set will break the $ 100 mark. Not bad considering it went for only $ 20 when widely available.
- 2509 Earth Dragon Defence

Comments: This dragon is actually the most unique looking one, in my opinion, and one that lasted even less than the Ice Dragon on the shelves. In turn, it has also become one of the top performers in this list, with a change over retail of almost 230%! Unlike the Ice Dragon, this set actually keeps increasing in value, with a huge 17% jump over the past month alone.
- 2521 Lightning Dragon Battle

Comments: Another first year release with a very short production run and a exclusive to LEGO and TRU, this was actually one of the largest sets released under the theme at that point with a $ 80 price tag. The set was selling at a very stable price up to December when it jumped from around $150 to $180, and since then it has remained at around that value.
- 2507 Fire Temple

Comments: Finally we get to a set that was retired fairly recently, sometime by the end of last year. This is the largest Ninjago set ever released, and since it remained on the shelves after the craze was already in one of its highest points it may help us determine how well some of the currently available sets will be doing once retired. Besides the dragon, this set included several minifigs and golden weapons, so it was sure to be a winner once it retired. So far, it presents some outstanding numbers with a 56% change over retail and a 25% CAGR. Probably as a result of its longer availability and the fact that investors had more chance and knowledge to acquire it, the set has not grown as rapidly as some of the others, but it is still pretty early to say for sure. We''ll see how it does this holiday season.
Below you will find a table with each set's numbers and a graph that places their change over retail against the average.


As you can see, pretty much every set has performed extremely well, with the largest sets experiencing a smaller change over retail more than likely as a result of the higher MSRP and recent retirement in the case of the Fire Temple. Every set that so far has included a dragon figure has then been a sure winner in the secondary market, and we should take these results and put them into use to figure out some of the sets we should be putting our money into in the Ninjago theme. The two currently available sets including dragons are shown below.
- 70503 Golden Dragon

Comments: This set includes my favorite dragon as well as the golden ninja. The set was selling pretty good this past holiday season and will more than likely be a great performer once it retires, just don't expect it to be the next Ice Dragon.
- 9450 Epic Dragon Battle

Comments: Second largest Ninjago set. This one includes several cool characters and exclusive minifigs that along with the Ultra Dragon make it one of the highest quality sets released under the theme. It actually shares a lot of similarities with the Fire Temple and I would expect it to perform very similarly once it retires, meaning a nice jump after EOL and some slower growth towards the $200 by the end of the first year after retirement.
Remember that the new Ninjago movie will more than likely boost the popularity of the theme even more, and all of these sets will benefit from the increase and see some returns that would have probably not happened as fast if the movie had not been released. Make sure to get as many as you can in both cases.
I hope you have enjoyed this very superficial analysis of the Ninjago dragons and I thank you for reading it!
 
There is something I have been wanting to apply to LEGO for a long time but that for some reason I could not find enough time to do: a regression analysis.
For those of you that have never heard of have already forgotten what a linear regression is, I will try to quickly summarize the most important aspects. Basically, by running a regression analysis we can determine the relationship between several different independent variables and how they affect one particular dependent variable, therefore allowing us to determine exactly what causes that independent variable to change. Even more, once we have performed a regression analyses we end up with a linear equation that can help us predict the future value of the independent variable by changing one or several of the dependent, with a margin of error depending on the quality of the regression. I know that some will understand this better once we get into the actual UCS numbers.
What I did in this particular case is select a popular theme that had a manageable amount of retired sets so that I would not need to spend several days collecting data, and the UCS seemed to be the most useful choice. For my independent variable I selected Change Over Retail, and the dependent variables that would help me determine it ended up being the following:
Price Per Piece Price Per Gram Piece Count MSRP Total Number of Sets Sold in the Past 12 Months Approximate Numbers of Years Retired There are several other variables that more than likely have an impact in how much a set increases in value over its retail price, like amount of exclusive pieces and actual sales numbers from its entire production run, but they are very hard or even impossible to quantify. The ones I selected are probably the most important of the ones we easily have access to.
After selecting my variables, I went ahead and made a table in Excel for every single one of the UCS already retired sets and collected data for the variables above for each. Here is what it ended up looking like:

You see that there is a lot of information in the table above that will help us with our current analysis. After collecting the data, I proceeded to run the regression analysis using Excel. The following is the regression output.

There are a lot of numbers in the table above, but this is not supposed to be an in depth stats class, so I highlighted one of the most important numbers. The highlighted R Square figure is the number that lets us know how much of the variation in a set's % Change over retail is explained by the variables listed below (PPG,PPP, MSRP, etc). In this particular case, we got an R Square of 0.72, or 72%, meaning that we can explain 72% of the movements in Change over retail by using this model. Why can't we explain more than that? well, it all comes down to not having more sets to include (only 16 have been retired) and the fact that we do not have all the variables that have an effect on a set's change over retail. Still, 72% is a pretty respectable number all things considered.
Now the boring part is out of the way, let's put to use what we found out and see how well our model matches up to the actual Change over retail of each set. This is done by using the following equation gathered from the above output:
Predicted % Change Over Retail =-443 + 2045*(PPP) + 2524*(PPW) + 0.41*(#Pieces) - 3.47*(MSRP) - 0.01*(SetsSold12Mo) + 40.46*(#YearsRetired)
You basically substitute each set's information for each variable in the formula above. For example, the 10179 predicted change over retail would be:
Predicted % Change Over Retail =-443 + 2045*(0.1) + 2524*(0.049) + 0.41*(5195) - 3.47*(500) - 0.01*(342) + 40.46*(3)
Predicted % Change Over Retail = 374.01% Actual Change Over Retail = 424.41%
As said before, there is a margin of error tied to the fact that not all of the variables are accounted for, but for basic estimations this model will give you some decently accurate results most of the time. Keep in mind that some special cases will be farther apart from the actual results, while some will be extremely close.
I then went ahead and applied the formula for every single set and compared the predicted values to the actual values just like we did with 10179 above, here is what it looks like both in table and graph form:


You can see that some of the results are pretty accurate, a couple are very far away (especially Grievous and the Speeder), and most are somewhat close. With more observations (sets) and with at least some of the missing variables our results would be a lot more accurate, but I think this at least provides you with a rough projection of where a set might be once retired for X amount of years.
So, we have been using this model to see how well it predicted performance of sets that have already been retired, but the real usefulness of it is going to be predicting the % change over retail of sets that are currently being produced and sold at retail OR those sets that have already been retired but you want to know where they will be in a couple more years. I will do one example so you can see this better:
10225 R2-D2 Predicted Change Over Retail in 3 Years (Assume retirement this year)
% Change = -443 + 2045*(0.08) + 2524*(0.069) + 0.41*(2127) - 3.47*(180) - 0.01*(676) + 40.46*(3)
Predicted % Change = 244.61%
So, according to the formula, this model should be worth around $ 620 once it has been retired for a period of three years, equivalent to a 244.61% change over retail.
I included this predictor in the Excel file you will find below, but there are some things I want you to keep in mind while using it:
Projections are not perfect, just estimates The model assumes past performance trends will maintain, since that is all the data we have, but as we all know the LEGO investment environment has changed Do not try to project values beyond 12 years, since that is the farthest data point we have and will make your results more inaccurate. Have Fun!! Thanks for Reading!

Regression - Predictor.xlsx (17.56KB): 128
 
On this edition of the BrickIndex Spotlight we will be analyzing the latest SW UCS set to have been retired: the Imperial Shuttle 10212
This is the first appearance of this set since it was retired just a few months ago, and so far it has managed to secure the 12th position after this past data update with a growth of 51.4% over the past 6 months.
The UCS Imperial Shuttle was one of those sets that for some reason were not especially talked about or liked by investors despite the fact that it was part of one of the most successful line of sets and a very popular ship from the original SW trilogy. In my Sleeper sets article, I categorize it as a Cat 2 sleeper because of that, and now that a few months have passed and its growth has been extremely positive you can probably tell why.
One of the most interesting features about the set is the fact that it was designed to minifigure scale. It is very rare for a LEGO set to be designed this way, and to me those few that are really hold an extra appeal since you can place the characters and they will not make the model look weird or out of place. This model included 4 cool minifigs that fit perfectly in the IS cabin.
Let's now evaluate the sale and market value numbers of this set over the past 12 months:

 

In the graphs above there are a couple of things that are worth noticing. First, in the one depicting the number of sets sold you will see that even though the set has been retired for a few months and has increased significantly over MSRP it continues to sell a pretty large amount of copies, especially New ones. This speaks volumes about the popularity of the set, especially when you consider that this past month of May the set sold more new copies than in any other month with the exception of November, December and January.
Now, take a look at the sales trends graphs for the past 12 months. You will see that up to December the set maintained a pretty consistent price around $20 below retail but once January hit the Shuttle started its pretty good growth trend that it has maintained for the last few months. Currently, the set is selling for around $ 355.
At this point I would say that there is still plenty of room for growth and investors with the ability to get a few more copies of this set would make a very good choice if planning to hold them for at least a couple of years before selling. The numbers for the majority of the UCS sets have been outstanding, and this particular one is already on the same path as some of its predecessors. I would be really surprised if this set does not reach $400 by the time December 2013 comes around. Expect this set to continue positioning itself on the BrickIndex for the next couple of months.
Recommendation: Strong Buy (6/30/2013)
 
Most often than not, we see people asking in the forums whether a particular currently available set is a worthwhile investment or not. Usually, that question is either preceded or just after the asking whether the set will be EOL soon or not.
That is the strategy most of us follow in this site. Grab currently available sets at good discounts and hold them until retirement to start enjoying some growth in value. However, I think that we are underestimating the power of investing in already retired sets that continue to present some high growth even years after they have been retired. In this article, I will try to give you some examples about how doing this may benefit you in a shorter period of time and in some instances make this type of investment preferable to the traditional strategy followed by most of us.
There are several things that we need to take into account when we invest in currently available sets; some of them include checking out for good discounts, long term storage, expected EOL wait, uncertainty about future performance and a bunch of other different things. The great thing about investing in already retired sets is that you remove several of these variables from the equation. There is no need to speculate about EOL dates as it has been retired already, you will be needing storage for a shorter period of time and in most cases you will be able to at least gauge how the set has been performing in the secondary market without having to "guess"
Let's now look at an example of what I described above:
I know a lot of people always kick themselves for not getting into LEGO investing in what some considering the good old days (Cafe Corner, MF, etc.), but in reality there are still ways to profit from sets released on those years. Let's say I decided to invest in the modular Green Grocer in 2012, when the set had already been retired for a couple of years:


So, I was able to make a return very close to 29% on a $500 set that originally retailed for only $ 150, that's pretty good in my book especially considering that the moment I bought it the set started generating a return for me without the long wait that usually precedes selling currently available sets.
As with the Green Grocer, there are just dozens of examples that present the same kind of short term benefit for investors willing to take a higher risk. One of those would be the 10189 Taj Mahal:


Impressive. Investors who shelled out the almost 4 times retail price for this set in May 2012 would be able to sell it now for almost $1,600, a ROI of almost 45% in a 12 month period. You will be hard pressed to find a traditional investment out there that will present the same amount of reward for a level of risk similar to what LEGO traditionally carries.
These past two examples are about sets that have been retired for at least two years already, and if you are willing to give this strategy a try I would suggest you do so in the first year of a set going EOL. Sets don't rise forever, and even if as you see above buying these sets in the second year after they had been retired nets you some very nice profits, the idea of an strategy like this is to capitalize on the fact that the set will start growing as soon as you purchase it. If you purchase this set within the first year of it being retired, then your profits will be even better while still capturing the growth as soon as you get them. Just as a reference, this is the ROI you would have gotten by purchasing these sets in 2011 (A year or so after retirement for both sets)
Green Grocer May 2011-May 2013 ROI = 104.22%
Taj Mahal May 2011-May 2013 ROI = 143.79 %
Pretty cool. Now, you may be thinking that these two sets are just too expensive or that it have been retired for so long that it no longer makes sense to put money in them (I'll let you decide if that's the case), but there are several examples of sets that have been retired in the past year or so that still make sense to get at current market prices. I will give you just one example: 10212 Imperial Shuttle.
This set has been retired for just a few months now and it has already soared in value, something that being a UCS set was not unexpected. But what about if you missed you chance to get one of these while it was still priced at retail at your local store? No worries, you can still benefit from the long term growth this set will be presenting in the coming years even if you invest at current market prices.
For the sake of argument, let's assume you got into LEGO investing in the month of February when the market value for a new one of these was about $ 300, so $40 over retail. Had you invested your money in the set at that price, this would have been your results:


17.7% ROI in around 4 months. Not bad at all.
You can see that even paying a lot over retail, something that is discouraged in this forums a lot, can result is some very substantial returns and keep you from waiting years or several months to start seeing some growth in the sets you own. Having said that, I am not encouraging that this is the only strategy you put to use, as I believe that mixing this up with the more traditional "buy at discount and hold" can help you diversify some of the risk and produce some great returns in the longer term than by using one of them in isolation.
Thanks for reading.
*Special thanks to Grolim for mentioning this topic time and time again in his comments*
 
Just a quick blog article for today. For those who haven't read my Chima Evaluation Corner article, I believe Chima has the potential to be successful for investors if the TV show continues its previous success. That said, I want to point you in the direction of what I believe can be a potential investment sleeper from the Chima line along the lines of Ninjago's Spinners, 70107 Skunk Attack (click the link for the Brickset review):

<image courtesy of Brickset>
This is the ONLY way to get a minifig from the skunk tribe, and while I have been critical of the high MSRP on Speedorz, the exclusivity of the Skinnet, the Chima skunk, could make this a winner.
Before plowing a bunch of money into these, watch the show's ratings to see if they maintain their current 1.5M US viewers per show. The show starts in earnest in July, and I have a sneaking suspicion kids will eat this theme up with the new episodes coming to Cartoon Network.
As an aside, I also like Gorzan's Gorilla Striker, the new Gorilla vehicle being released this summer, but Lego is releasing a gorilla Speedor as well named 70109 Whirling Vines so Gorzan will not be an exclusive in either one.
 
Modular buildings. Considered by some investors as the gold standard of LEGO investing along with the UCS line of Star Wars, have been around since 2007, when LEGO decided to release the first one of the line, the coveted 10182 Cafe Corner. The story of how this line of sets became a reality is a very interesting one, and very different to what usually happens when LEGO decides to produce a new theme. Let’s go back a few years and see how this really popular line was conceived.
Most of you probably already know this, but back in 2006 LEGO decided to run a poll to figure out what the AFOL community would be interested in seeing developed next. Something that would appeal mostly to them and maybe TFOL as well, in a way giving LEGO that broader appeal they were interested in having. So, out of that poll came a variety of suggestions from the community, mostly related to the desire for a very realistic and minifigure scale “every day” building, something one would find by walking down the street, as well as a variety of other features on that same line. Finally LEGO got their design team to work and, along with some fan feedback, finally released 10182 Cafe Corner in early 2007.
What do these sets offer that makes them so popular with both TFOL and AFOLs all over the world? There are actually a handful of different factors that we need to keep in mind:
First and foremost, these are sets that are designed to target adult fans and not the usual LEGO customer (kids). Pretty similar to what the Architecture line does on a smaller scale. Large and heavily detailed models of buildings that are not product of imagination, but rather structures that every single person has at some point of their life seen in their own cities. The architectural design resembles those of decades past, giving all of the sets a more charm full appearance. All of the sets are designed to minifigure scale The sets offer great value for the price paid, even MSRP. Good for MOCers Inclusion of very hard to find pieces in most sets. Most of the buildings present several different and more advanced building techniques that are not usually found on some of the other LEGO themes. Even more, they are highly customizable if you know what you are doing. Even though the first couple of buildings included most of their few play features on the outside, as the theme has progressed the newer buildings have started to show some interesting features also on the inside. Lastly, they are perfect display models, mostly because the fact that they are completely compatible and connect each other to recreate a complete street. So, you see, there a lot of very interesting features included on all of the sets in this theme, and to all that you still need to add the amazing price appreciation the already retired sets have been presenting over past few years, something we will be analyzing next.
Retired Modular Sets and their performance:
10182 - Cafe Corner


My Analysis: This is the set that started it all. Just take a look at the CAGR this set has been presenting over the course of its retirement period. It has already been three years and the figure has maintained very high. The percentage change with respect to the last month is almost 4% even after all this time, so you can be sure this model will continue its high speed growth for at least the rest of this year, probably well into 2015 as well. This incredibly detailed corner building will probably mature in a couple years, but I really see it going all the way to $ 1,800, maybe even more.
10190 – Market Street


My Analysis: Here we have the smallest, and in my opinion least appealing modular building released by LEGO that also happens to be the most profitable one in the secondary market. Market Street has the particularity that it was designed mostly by a LEGO fan and not a professional LEGO designer, something that is not likely to be repeated any time soon. This is probably a factor that has caused this set to rise so significantly above what the Cafe Corner has so far. Market Street’s CAGR is an outstanding 55 %, and is currently $40 more expensive to acquire on the secondary market than Café Corner. Even more, the set’s last month percentage change is up by more than 5%, showing that even after several years this is one investment that will continue to grow, perhaps above $ 2,000! In fact, if it continues to show a percentage increase of 5% each month, it will be reaching around $ 1,800 by the end of this same year.
10185 – Green Grocer


My Analysis: The last one of the modular that has been retired, so far. From the description it is pretty obvious what the main difference between this set and its two predecessors is: the detailed interior. The first two modulars were outstandingly detailed on the outside, but they lacked a designed interior that would make them even more appealing, and that is something that was included in the Green Grocer. The building consists of three floors, all of which have at least some detailing inside; some examples are the stairways, a fireplace, furniture, detailed inside flooring, etc. As if that was not enough, this model also presents the lowest price per piece of the already retired buildings, while at the same time having one of my favorite outside designs of the entire line. If I had to pick a favorite among these first modulars, this would be the one without a doubt.
Taking a look at the investment numbers, you will notice that this set has not presented the same level of growth the previous two did. This of course does not mean its performance has been substandard; a CAGR of close to 35 % is a number every investor wishes to see in any set that it’s part of their Brickfolio. A reason for this somewhat lower number may be the increase in popularity of the theme both with collectors and investors, especially the latter. By the time Green Grocer had retired, a lot of people had probably seen the amazing returns of Market Street and Café Corner, so that an increase in the supply of Green Grocers is more than likely the reason its growth has been somewhat slower. Even more, check the percentage change of the Green Grocer compared to that of both previous sets, and you will see that while those are still growing very fast, 10185 presents a lower, but steady, increase in value. If this trend continues, the set will probably get over $ 700 by the end of this year.
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And those are all of the sets in the theme that have been retired so far. What’s interesting about all of these sets is that you can still make the case for each and every one to be a good investment pick even at current prices. Just by projecting the current trends as I did above, you can see that if they keep going the way they are, especially with the first two, there is money to be made as soon as the end of this year if so you prefer, but even more long term. Of these sets, the Green Grocer will set you back the least amount of money, but at the same time it will probably appreciate at a slower rate. Less risk, less return.
Since 2010, none other of the modulars has been retired, so it is really hard to say at this point how they will be going to perform, especially with the awareness factor and longer production runs going against them. Let’s now go ahead and analyze these sets you can still get from the shelves.
Current Modulars
10197 Fire Brigade

My Analysis: Fire Brigade, worrying and frustrating investors since the year 2009. In all seriousness, you will be hard pressed to find a set that produces so many different emotions as this one, excluding the 10188 Liv..Death Star of course. This modular was the fourth one to be released, one year after Green Grocer, and if it had followed the trend set up by its predecessors, it should have been out of the market at some point in 2011. But here we are, 2 full years later and this set is still readily available pretty much everywhere.
After the success of the previous modulars, it is pretty clear that a large portion of the LEGO collecting and investing community caught on the investment potential of the whole theme, having as an unintended consequence the more than likely higher number of sales for 10197 than for the older models. It is probable that this increased popularity is the reason LEGO has still not decided to pull Fire Brigade’s plug at this point.
Having said all that, as all past modulars this model is very great looking, larger than most and includes a number of exclusives pieces/colors along with the first vehicle of the series that could prove to be a helping hand in this set’s quest to glory. The interior of the set is very detailed, even more than the Green Grocer, and the fact that it is a fire station pretty much guarantees that everyone who is considering starting or completing a modular city will need to acquire it at some point. For more specific information about this set, check out Jeff Mack’s EC article on Fire Brigade
Value Prediction: I think it would be very naïve to expect a performance similar to Café Corner or Market Street. In a way, Green Grocer already proved to us that these sets will still show strong growth in the secondary market, just that it will probably be at a slower pace. Considering the extended production run, it is my opinion that this set will grow at an even lower rate than Green Grocer, probably presenting a CAGR of around 13 % by the time it has been retired for as long as 10185.
*Graph assumes retirement by the end of 2013 (Let’s all hope)
 

 
10211 – Grand Emporium

My Analysis: Released in 2010, Grand Emporium is the fifth set of the series and only the second corner building. This is another great looking building that resembles a large department store, with several different types of merchandise on each of the three different floors. The inside details will completely blow you away, there is even an escalator that looks almost perfect!
The price of this set is completely consistent to that of most of the series, so no issues there. As it happens with Fire Brigade, the set has presented a longer production run than those that have already been retired, getting closer to three years now. However, one of the things this set has going for it that Fire Brigade does not, is the fact that it is a corner building. Grand Emporium is only the second corner building of the entire theme after Café Corner (now three with Palace Cinema), and as you can probably imagine, having a couple of corner buildings in your modular town is the only way to keep it from becoming only an incredibly long street. Even more, if you missed out or only purchased one Café Corner, this was your only choice until not so long ago.
With the release of the new Palace Cinema, I honestly think this, and not Fire Brigade, will be the next modular to retire. This would be good news to investors as the set would only be on the market for a while longer than average, and not a lot more like 10197. For more specific information about the set, check out Arock68’s EC article on Grand Emporium.
Value Prediction: Assuming this set retires at some point this year, there is the possibility for a stronger growth trend than exists with Fire Brigade. Even more, being a corner building will probably allow this set to command a higher price in the secondary market, especially considering the high price of a Café Corner at this point. I see this set presenting a CAGR of around 17 % by the time it has been retired for as long as the Green Grocer.

 
10218 Pet Shop

My Analysis: Very nice building and concept. As you can imagine the Pet Shop includes an assortment of animal pieces. One of the most appealing features in my opinion, is the appearance of the exterior where it looks as if they were two different buildings right next to each other, something that we have not seen tried before with other modulars. Inside, the details are once again great looking, full of pet related things as well as some nice architectural features like a very tall fireplace. Even more, you can separate the buildings if you prefer and set them up any way you want!
The set was released on 2011, so it could still retire within the two year average for modulars. Even more, this is one of the least talked about sets of the whole theme, perhaps because it is expected to last a long time on the shelves or just because it seems to be even harder find discounted that some of the others. Either way, if I had to pick one set to over perform the rest of the ones available, it would be this one. It is just a very different concept, and something I honestly did not expect LEGO to produce. Most of the other buildings were pretty easy to expect, but this one is very unique and in my opinion that will help it produce higher returns in the future. Hopefully it will last around two years as the older ones used to do.
Value Prediction: Love the set. I find it very unique and well designed. Plus, it has to do with pets, and who does not love them? The inside REALLY looks like a real pet shop, with several different animals and other details included. This is my top pick of the currently available modulars and if you check the eBay activity you will see that it’s very popular as well. I see a CAGR of around 23% by the time it has been EOL for two years. (Assumes retirement by the end of the year)

 
10224 Town Hall

My Analysis: The tallest of all the models in the theme, you just can’t have a town without its own Town Hall. Besides being the tallest building, this set also contains the largest amount of pieces, more than 2700 that earn it a place on the top 15 largest LEGO sets ever produced. The Town Hall comes with some interesting features like a working elevator, meeting rooms, and pretty much everything you need to take care of the most important aspects of your town. There is even a balcony from where the Mayor can give speeches to the adoring masses below.
The Town Hall was only released a little over a year ago, so it is still pretty early to speculate about when it will be retiring. Something else worth mentioning is that this is the most expensive LEGO set from the modular theme ever released when considering raw MSRP (its price per piece is still in line with previous models). This might be a positive aspect when considering the future appreciation of the set, since the price is probably a little steep for some people that will end up missing out on the set, or even for investors who may not stock up as many copies as with some others. Hopefully, this will translate in smaller supply once it goes EOL, something that if everything works out we hope happens sometime next year.
Value Prediction: As said before, sheer amount of pieces may give this set a bump once it goes EOL. Plus, I would say that a Town Hall is just a must have building in any realistic town scene. Assuming this set retires sometime next year, I think it will follow the same trend of some of the other current modulars and present a CAGR of around 20 % by the time it has been retired for 2 years.

10232 Palace Cinema

My Analysis: The newest of all the modulars, the Palace Cinema was just released a couple of months ago. It is the third corner building of the whole theme, and a great looking one it is! This is the first modular to include the usually dreaded sticker sheet, but I actually think that they make the set look a lot more realistic, just a little bit more tedious to build. As of today, this set is currently one of the top sellers in LEGO, but that is to be expected with a new release, so it is really hard to gauge the popularity of the model thus far. It is getting mostly positive reviews, so I would say that is probably well received.
The inside details are just really good, some of the best looking ones yet. The Cinema is also the second set of the entire line to include a vehicle, so that may be something to consider when making your investment decision. Even more, it is another of those highly popular corner buildings that are vital for any realistic looking town, and for someone who just can’t afford a Café Corner and does not want to have two Gran Emporiums at each end, this comes at the perfect time.
Value Prediction: It is really hard to tell at this point where this set might be going once it is retired, or even to speculate about a possible retirement date. In my opinion, this won’t be going on a very different path than some of my earlier predictions for other sets, so expect a CAGR between 17% and 23%.
10230 Mini Modulars

I really was not sure if I wanted to include this set in this article, since they are technically not modulars, but I felt that they deserved at least a short comment. The mini modulars set is a very interesting twist on the larger theme, where you are able to build the first five modular buildings on a mini, but still detailed, scale. I feel they will do very good once retired, especially since they make great companions for its larger counterparts.
I would say that, depending on the success of this little set, LEGO may be planning to launch a second version including the last modulars that have been released over the course of the years, so keep your eyes open for that.
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Congratulations if you made it this far, I just have a couple of closing comments before letting you go.
From reading the article and comparing the first three modular releases and all the subsequent ones, along with my value predictions, you may be thinking that I am some sort of “bear” or at least not one of the most optimist people regarding this theme, but that is hardly the case. What I am is aware of some of the signals the performance of the Green Grocer is giving us investors every day: the time of completely crazy returns for modular buildings is coming to an end. Now, that is not to say that they won’t be making you A LOT of money, just take a look at my projections again and you will see that is not what I think. The issue now will be that sets of this theme will start growing at a slower rate than did those first ones. Just take a look at Green Grocer numbers and you will already see what I mean. It is growing at a slower rate per month and already has a considerably lower CAGR, even though it has been retired for way less time than the others.
Still, you can be sure most of these sets will be doubling your money a couple of years after they go into retirement, even the very talked about Fire Brigade. Modular collecting is something that, once you start, then you just can’t stop. The first modular building most people purchase will more than likely not be their last, and a considerable number will probably want to go ahead and own a complete collection. For that, they will need to go over to the secondary market and get their Town Halls and Fire Brigades from investors like you, that even knowing that you would not get $1,000+ in a couple of years from this sets, decided to go ahead and stock up some and make a still very nice profit in what really is a short term holding period.
Modular investing’s rapid growth period may be coming to an end, but we are still in the phase of getting very considerable and steady returns. Hold on to those Fire Brigades!
Thanks for reading
*Entry image from: Lego Wikia*
 
For three years, I worked downtown and on my way home from work I would occasionally pass by a hot dog vendor named Ray who would stake out a corner near the entrance to the train station. Because I'm a sucker for a good Chicago-style dog (tomato, pickle, onions, neon green relish, mustard, celery salt, sport peppers, and NO KETCHUP), I would occasionally stop by Ray's cart for a dog, and he and I would chat for a couple minutes while I finished it. One day, we got around to talking about his business, so I asked him what separated his hot dogs from the cart across the street. At first he gave me a line about how his have magic, so when I challenged him on it he looked at me and said, "You know, there's no difference between mine and his but one thing – my voice. I was blessed with pipes…he wasn't."
"Get your rrrrrrrrrrrrrred hots here!"
thanked Ray for the hot dog and headed home, hearing his "red hots" call echoing off the buildings as I walked toward the train station. On the train home, I pondered Ray and his little business and began to appreciate his simple, effective business model. Essentially, he had two critical components: a location with thousands of potential buyers and an effective sales pitch: his signature call.
"Get your rrrrrrrrrrrred hots here!"
Lego resellers are similar to Ray: both are looking for lots of buyers and a great sales hook. To get buyers, every Lego investor has easy access to "park their cart" on the most prolific market in the world: eBay. Yet to succeed, sellers also need to develop their hook, and the easiest way to do this is by creating an effective eBay listing. Posting effective listings will yield more sales and higher selling prices for the Lego investor. With these tips, the beginner Lego reseller will maximize returns on all their eBay listings.
Lego Listing's Key Ingredients
Let's say a new Lego investor purchased 10228 Haunted House around Christmas last year at a shockingly steep discount and now, to free up some capital, has decided to sell it. What's the best thing he can do to maximize return on your sale? Write a great listing! Fortunately, eBay wants to help you list your merchandise, so they have created two tools to help sellers complete their listings: the quick listing tool and advanced tool. The quick listing tool is a guided process that prompts sellers for specific information, while the advanced tool is a self-guided process that provides the seller more options to customize the listing's information. For new sellers, I would suggest using the quick listing tool for the first few sales to develop a familiarity with the listing process. The advanced tool can always be used for future listings once the new seller is comfortable with the format.
For now, we will discuss the quick listing tool. The quick listing tool includes four steps:
Describing the product Setting the price Selecting the shipping options Reviewing the listing Each has its own considerations and challenges, so here is a description of each:
Describing the Product
There are three main areas that must receive special attention when describing your merchandise in a listing:
Listing Title Product Category Photographs Product Description Listing Title
The listing title is the first input a seller must make when crafting a listing. This title is important because most eBay buyers use eBay's search engine to find merchandise, and this search engine searches only for words in listing titles. A well written listing title will increase views of your product, and the more buyers look at your product, the higher the probability that someone will bid on it. The listing title is limited to 80 characters including spaces, so the title must be condensed, accurate and informative. For Lego selling, follow these simple rules:
Assuming you are selling a Lego brand product, always include LEGO at the beginning of your title without exception. If selling a Lego set, always include the set number, name and theme and the term "set". Try to avoid abbreviating the name and never miss including the number. If selling a group of Lego bricks, always include "lot" in the name and the defining characteristic of the lot. For example, if you're selling a collection of tree pieces, include "Lego lot tree pieces" in your listing title. If selling minifigs, always list the fig name if there is one, the term "minifigure", and the number and name of the set it came from. If parting out a set, be sure to list the set number and name, and what is missing or parted out. For example, if you're selling the dragon only from 70503 Golden Dragon, including the phrase "Dragon figure only" in your title will bring you the best chance of hitting your target buyer. If you're selling Bag-End with no minifigures from 79003 An Unexpected Gathering, be sure to include "no minifigs" in your description. If the set comes with everything but the box, include "no box" in your description. If there's room, always provide the condition of the set or part. Common modifiers include: MISB: Mint in Sealed Box – appropriate if the box is flawless NISB: New in Sealed Box – appropriate if the box is sealed, but there are flaws in the box such as folds, crush marks or wrinkles. This note is not appropriate if the box is open in any way, or if the original seals aren't in their original condition. New - appropriate for pieces being parted out that haven't been assembled. Gently Used – appropriate if pieces or set has been assembled once and all pieces are in good shape Here is an example of a strong listing title:

If there are still available characters in your description, it will help your Lego listing if you provide other descriptive words. For the 10228 Haunted House, adding additional appropriate descriptors like "vampire" or "mansion" in your title will give your listing extra hooks for the search engine:
Lego 10228 Haunted House Monster Fighters MISB vampire mansion
Also, I suggest NOT using hyphens in your titles since they tend to be wasted characters. If you feel like you really need to use them, separate the hyphens with spaces. The listing title "Lego 10228 Haunted House-Monster Fighters-MISB-mansion" may not provide a match with any of the individual search words "house", "monster", "fighters", "misb" or "mansion" since the search will read the hyphenate phrase as one word.
There is also a subtitle option available to add to your listing for an additional $.55. This subtitle will not be searched for keywords by eBay's search engine so I don't see a lot of use for this, especially for commodity-type listings like lots and common minifigs. Returns from low cost listings will also suffer from this additional fee, so it's not worth using this feature for small sets either. I suggest keeping the $.55.
Product Category
The product category is also a small, yet important piece of information to provide for your listing. For buyers that don't use the search engine, the only other way to find a listing is to navigate eBay's product categories. The eBay product category database is an entire hierarchy of categories and subcategories that can quickly refine a search without keyword input. As you may have guessed, there is a "Lego" product category that is a subcategory of the "Toys and Hobbies" category and "Building Toys" subcategory. The Lego subcategory is also segregated into a variety of themes including Bionicle, Technic, Duplo, Mindstorms, Lego sets, and an all-encompassing "Other" category. It's important to provide the most applicable subcategory since the listing will show up in all the categories and subcategories that are marked. For example, a 10228 Haunted House set that is only labeled in the "Lego" category will only show up in a Lego category search, while the same set that is labeled with the "Lego" category, "Sets" and "Other" subcategories will show up in all three category searches. Fortunately, eBay quick listing tool will suggest categories/subcategories if you enter the set number and name when prompted.
I have circled an example of a strong Product Category selection:

EBay will also offer the option to list your Lego product in a second category, but I wouldn't recommend spending the money as most Lego merchandise will almost always fit into a specific subcategory.
Photographs
Like a good bun to a hot dog, a good photograph will really complement your listing's text. There have been many discussions on the Brickpicker forum about buyer frustration from getting stock photographs with listings. While Power Sellers can leverage their track records to establish a buyer's trust, the new Lego investor must use all tools in his arsenal to establish buyer's trust. Posting pictures of the actual set is a way to prove the condition of the merchandise and establish that buyer trust crucial for getting a bid. EBay allows sellers to post up to 12 pictures, so always start with a general shot of the box, and use the remaining pictures to establish box condition or to show the assembled set if selling used.
When taking pictures, be sure to provide enough light while avoiding glare on the box. Also, always use a light background (a sheet can work in a pinch), and as Brickpicker members have seen, never use the bathroom as a setting for your photographs! Finally, avoid confusing pictures such as this one:
 

This picture confuses the buyer, mixing a stock black and white photo from a different set with the actual set in bag and assembled form.
Product Description
The product description is probably the most crucial part of the Lego listing. While a good title and a targeted subcategory label will bring in the potential buyers, the product description will sell a product. The Product Description is the only place to provide specific details of the Lego merchandise being sold, and the more information that is provided to potential buyers, the better a chance there is for a bid. All descriptions should be written conversationally, and have a positive tone. If you are proficient in HTML, you can add graphics and backgrounds to your listings, but don't feel pressured to provide this, especially if it's outside your comfort level or skill set. If you elect to use graphics, keep them clean and minimal.
The best Product Descriptions include the following four sections:
Introduction Lego S@H Description Listing Specific Information Personal Touch Introduction
The introduction should introduce the buyer to what you are selling. It's important to make an impression, so make it fun and keep it light, but always include the quantity, set number and name, piece count and a quick description of the model and its highlights. For our 10228 Haunted House example, something like this would work well: "The_lego_closet presents Lego 10228 Haunted House – a frightfully wonderful building model that will have you screaming for more! This 2,064 piece Lego set is an old, rundown Victorian mansion that's been haunted by a vampire, his bride, zombie assistants and even a ghost! The Lego model house swings open to show the scary contents of this vampire couple's home including a variety of rooms, spooky accessories, furniture, and a fireplace among other delightfully ghoulish details."
Lego S@H description
For Lego sellers, the actual Lego description provides a wealth of knowledge, and should always be included in the product description if it's available. Brickset.com has Lego's description listed under their "Descriptions" tab for each set's information page, so always check Brickpicker for this copy. For 10228, the copy is:
Lego's Description for 10228 Haunted House
"Enter the haunted house at your peril!
The crooked Haunted House is home to the scariest ghosts and monsters. Tremble in fear as you open the gate, go weak at the knees as you step onto the porch and gasp in horror at the fireplace, kitchen, office, folding staircase, bedroom, potion room, music room and collection of other creepy objects. Dare you enter the Haunted House?!
Add to your LEGO® Monster Fights Collection with the first officlal LEGO® Haunted House!
Includes 6 minifigures: 2 glow-in-the-dark ghosts, Vampyre, Vampyre's Bride, Zombie chef and butler
Features unique ‘crooked' design featuring boarded up windows and working front gate.
Haunted House opens to reveal detailed interior with 3 floors.
First floor features fireplace that swings open and displays a ship in a bottle on the mantle.
Cook up a ghoulish meal with the Zombie chef in the kitchen complete with old-style stove, jars and table!
Write letters from the Vampyre's haunted office!
Pull the lever hidden in the chimney to release the drop down staircase and access the top floor!
Top floor features gramophone, records and newspaper LEGO® elements.
Customize the Haunted House with new stickers for wall hangings, spider webs and curtains!
Measures 15.4" (39cm) high, 9.4" (24cm) wide and 7.5" (19cm) deep"
Some overlapping information between your introduction and the Lego description isn't an issue, but it's important not to just repeat everything included in the S@H description in your introduction.
Listing Specific Information
Every strong Lego listing should include a section that discusses information specific to the listing. For example, if you are selling a part of a set, or a minifigure, this is the place to tell the buyer this. Be sure to thoroughly explain exactly what the buyer is bidding on here. Don't hesitate to format words or sentences differently for emphasis or effect, but make sure the emphasized text doesn't look ridiculous. Also, be sure to state the set comes from a pet free/smoke free home if applicable.
This section can also include any specific shipping, insurance or bidding information as well. While some refer to this as the fine print, it's very important to clearly communicate any information that would have an effect on bidding to the seller. This listing does a very good job of explaining listing specific information:
 

Personal Touch
It always helps to bring a human element to your listing by adding some personal observations or opinions about the set as long as they are positive. Also, always thank buyers for considering your listing. See below for a listing with a nice personal touch:
 

Things to Avoid In reviewing eBay listings for this article, I came across a number of listings that were utter disasters. Here are a few to consider for what they've done incorrectly:

Don't use loud backgrounds like this. They're an eyesore!

This description is too overwhelming and confusing – what is with all those set numbers?
Setting the Price
There are three primary decisions to make when setting your price:
Selecting Auction or Fixed Price sale Determining the price Determining the auction duration Selecting Auction of Fixed Price sale
Sellers need to determine whether they want their sale to be an auction or a fixed price. Auctions typically garner higher prices, but there is always the risk of not getting what you feel you deserve for your set. Sets garnering significantly higher secondary prices should be safer auction bets than ones that are selling close to MSRP, so consider a fixed price sale if flipping unretired sets, and an auction for well performing retired sets.
Determining the Price
The most important decision a seller will make is the selling price of their merchandise. If the seller has selected an auction, eBay recommends that setting a $.01 starting price will garner more bids and yield a higher sales price. EBay also gives you the option to set a "Buy it Now" price. If selected, BIN has the effect of setting an anchor price, which can be good and bad: good because it gives buyers an idea of what you want to get for the set, but bad because it will cap bids at this price. While it's the seller's option, I would suggest not setting a Buy it Now price.
Determining the Auction Duration
The final part of setting your price is to determine the length of the listing. EBay claims the longer the listing, the more likely the merchandise will sell at a higher price. Also, eBay gives you an option to schedule a start time, which is really a way to set your finish time. This is critical because you typically want your auctions to end when there is the most traffic on the website. If you're in the United States, this would likely be between 8 -10 PM Eastern. To finish it at this time, be sure to start the auction at this time.
Selecting the Shipping Options
EBay gives you two options for shipping: the eBay suggested option which in the US is USPS first class for US domestic packages, and the "create your own shipping" option that allows you to customize your shipping. Some sellers require a signature for expensive shipments, and first class shipping provides this as an option for an additional fee.
The Create Your Own shipping option is good if you are savvy or experienced with shipping. Before doing a significant amount of shipping on eBay, I would suggest new sellers review the cost of each of the shipping options eBay provides to learn your preferred shipping option.
For pros and cons of different shipping options and carriers, stay tuned for another blog entry!
Finally, eBay also offers you the option of including free shipping with your order. I would only suggest providing free shipping if you set a fixed price sale and build the shipping cost into the fixed price. Otherwise, I would always have the buyer pay shipping.
Reviewing the Listing
This is your last chance to check everything in your listing. Be aware – this is EXTREMELY important. For proof, check out this forum post:
http://www.brickpicker.com/forum/index.php/topic/3315-lol-ebay-whoops/?hl=ebay (sorry eRacine)
Needless to say, always check everything on your listings. You don't want to risk a mistake that could wind up in a canceled listing or, worse yet, bad feedback from a buyer.
Seller's Rating
While writing a good listing is crucial, it's also important to understand the importance of a seller's sales rating. The number in parentheses next to your seller name is a count of the ratings a seller has received from past transactions. Someone with hundreds of positive sale ratings will always be considered a low risk seller for buyers, and will usually command top dollar for their listings. For the new Lego investor, I suggest selling small Lego sets such as polybags or sets under $10 to increase your sales ratings. That way, once your large sets appreciate, your strong sales rating, combined with a good listing, will get you top dollar for your listings. If you have more than 10 ratings (hopefully all positive), you will receive a number in parantheses next to your seller name. This will allow buyers to easily review the feedback and hopefully provide them with a higher comfort level that you will deliver what you are selling.
 

It's a Shame About Ray
Crafting and posting an effective eBay listing is critical to attracting buyers to your eBay auctions. Buyers will appreciate the accuracy, detail and relevance of a good listing and will be more willing to place a bid an auction with one.
I haven't seen Ray in ages, and I miss hearing his signature "red hots" call - it always reminded me I was on my way home. While eBay buyers may not have this same emotional connection, positive feedback from good sales will grow your reputation, much like Ray's voice did for his business. In a sea of thousands of Lego auctions, make sure yours stands out.
As always, invest accordingly.
 

 
If you have taken a look around BrickPicker's home page you have probably noticed a tab that reads Theme CAGR. What you will get by clicking it is a list of every major LEGO theme in order of highest to lowest CAGR, that unlike for individual sets encompasses the whole product line of a specific theme. We can use that list as a proxy for theme popularity and overall investment performance in a variety of ways. However, I want to take that list and twist it a little bit to get some different insights on very similar information.
As the list is calculated using a simple average of the CAGR of all sets in a particular theme, the weight assigned to each set is exactly the same whether we are talking about a small $3.99 Polybag or a $200 modular. This is perfectly fine as measure of the overall popularity of the theme, but what if a particular investor's strategy focuses around selling only medium to large size sets? Well, in that case a simple average may not be the best approach. If interested in calculating a more appropriate measure in a case like this, we could use the Weighted Average approach to the CAGR.
A CAGR weighted average does better is giving more weight to those sets on the theme that are more valuable, and less weight to those that are less valuable (like Polybags), effectively resulting in a figure that represents better the popularity and investment performance of the larger sets. Let me give you a quick example of what I mean first before showing you how you would go about calculating a weighted CAGR.
Theme X


A 20% CAGR for a whole theme is actually a pretty good number, but as you can see most of that comes from the two polybags. If you are a big set seller, you would make a very bad choice by purchasing a large set expecting a CAGR of anything even remotely close to 20%.
On the other hand, the weighted CAGR figure is significantly lower, clearly depicting the fact the larger sets of the theme are not performing as well as the smallest. An investor focusing in medium to large sized sets will now expect a CAGR closer to 8% instead of 20% and will therefore be able to make a more informed decision.
Weighted CAGR is a very useful calculation that along with the simple average one calculated by BP can help you paint a more accurate picture about the popularity and overall performance of a particular theme.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Appendix: How to calculate weighted CAGR:
Step 1: Add the MSRPs of all the sets on a particular theme
In the example above you would do: (3+5+20+50+150) = $ 228
tep 2: Divide each set's value for the total amount calculated above
For example, you would do 3/228 = 0.013 for the first polybag, 5/228 for the second and so on.
Step 3: Multiply each value you got in Step 3 above for the individual CAGR of each set.
For example Polybag 1 weight (from above) is: 0.013, you would then multiply that by its CAGR: 0.013*40%= 0.53%
Step 4: Once you have done Step 3 for every single set of the theme, you would proceed to add the results to get the final Weighted CAGR: 0.53+0.66+1.32+2.19+3.29= 7.99%
 
"This is your Lego captain speaking...on behalf of the flight crew, I would like to welcome you to BrickpickerAir. During your flight, I invite you to enjoy our in-cabin service that includes free Brickpicker access, worldwide Lego discounts, and of course the option to purchase Lego's most exclusive sets, the Airline Exclusives, only sold here and in a few other airline magazines. Once again, welcome to the flight."
Brickpickers, please be aware that while the Macks have no intention of starting an airline, there is one aspect of our Lego captain's announcement that is true: Lego's Airline Exclusive sets do exist. Every year Lego produces an aviation-themed set to sell only on select airlines. Some airlines sell these exclusive sets through the catalogs stuffed in every seat pocket, and some sell it through in-flight carts that are trucked through the aisles by stewardesses. Needless to say, these are fairly rare models given their limited distribution channel.
Does this rarity translate to investment profits for these sets? Normally, I would say yes. Lego Exclusives are typically very collectible, almost always commanding a premium on the secondary market. Yet, these sets have two fundamental problems: they aren't advertised well (if at all) so VERY few people know they exist, and they tend to be plain (no pun intended) with no exclusive minifigs and a no-frills aircraft.
So, theoretically, these sets wouldn't provide great returns if bought at MSRP. Yet, as we know, theory and practice are different, so let's try to prove my instinct with data. Unfortunately, there was one major issue I encountered: when I tried to calculate ROI, there were no listed retail prices for the vast majority of these sets anywhere. The latest one, 4473, had a list price of £15 on the Virgin Atlantic site, and last year's set, 4442, was also priced at £15 on Brickset. The only other price I saw was for the 2007 set, 2064, priced at €18. So, assuming MSRP on these are £15 (or €18) and shipping is another £5 (these are small sets), our all-in cost on this set would be £20. Here are the yearly models from the last eight years from earliest to latest, and their ROIs:
*Note - A few set values may appear off by $1, but it's strictly due to rounding. Exchange rates assumed were £1 BP = $1.5 USD = €1.17*
2928 - Airline Promotional Set (2006)

Current UK Value and ROI - n/a (there have been no recent sales of this NEW set)
Current US Value and ROI - $69 (£46 / €54) / 130%
Current European Value and ROI - €27 (£23 / $35) / 15%
2064 - Airline Promotional Set (2007)

Current UK Value and ROI - £31 ($46 / €36) / 45%
Current US Value and ROI - $37 (£25 / €29) / 25%
Current European Value and ROI - €21 (£18 / $28) / -10%
2230 - Airline Promotional Set (2008)

Current UK Value and ROI - £25 ($38 / €29) / 25%
Current US Value and ROI - $45 (£30 / €35) / 50%
Current European Value and ROI - n/a (there have been no recent sales of this NEW set)
7643 Air-Show Plane (2009)

Current UK Value and ROI - £12 ($18 / €14) / -40%
Current US Value and ROI - $32 (£21 / €25) / 10%
Current European Value and ROI - €19 (£17 / $25) / -15%
7688 - Lego Sports Plane (2010)

Current UK Value and ROI - £14 ($21 / €16) / -30%
Current US Value and ROI - $31 (£21 / €25) / 5%
Current European Value and ROI - €25 (£22 / $33) / 10%
7696 - Commuter Jet (2011)

Current UK Value and ROI - £21 ($32 / €25) / 5%
Current US Value and ROI - $36 (£24 / €28) / 20%
Current European Value and ROI - €16 (£14 / $21) / -30%
4442 - Glider (2012)

Current UK Value and ROI - n/a (there have been no recent sales of this NEW set)
Current US Value and ROI - $51 (£34 / €40) / 70%
Current European Value and ROI - €1256 (£21 / $33) / 5%
4473 - Police Helicopter (2013)

As you can see, this year's set has no sales information yet since it is so new.
What does this information tell us about the Airline Exclusive series? First, we must caution you against using the data above as gospel since it can suffer from a small number of data points. That said, if you're in the UK, don't expect to make any money investing in these sets. For every set that has a small gain, there is another that has a negative ROI including the awful 7643 Air-Show plane bringing up the rear at -40% ROI. EU investors likely should stay away from these sets as well since there wasn't an ROI over 10% among the bunch, and three sported negative ROIs. There are a couple of US winners here, likely due to the lack of availability on US airline flights, and the corresponding rarity in the market. 4442 and 2928 are the big US winners with ROIs of 70% and 130% respectively. A word of caution for US investors: there are still two underperforming sets among these seven sets. 7688 and 7643 barely made a profit from their estimated $30 MSRP/shipping price. All in all, I would caution all investors to pass on these sets for investment.
"Hello, folks. From the flight deck, we see some storm clouds ahead for these Airline Exclusive sets. If your looking for big returns, fasten your safety belts as the seat belt signs have been illuminated. We expect some turbulence ahead for these sets, so try to steer clear of them as much as possible. As always, invest accordingly..."
 
Like the ever classic tune performed by The Who playing during the intro of that TV show, CSI: Crime Scene Investigation, “Who are you?” except in this case, who am I? After a rather ridiculous amount of posts and topics starting with my very first one titled “Stargate in LEGO?”, I realized me of all people has yet to actually introduce himself whatsoever and figured what better way than to blog about it now? Perhaps this will get me better acquainted with everyone here as well as helping you understand what goes through my oddball mind. Ahem….
A long time ago in the state of sunshine, I was born in a year when Medicare came into effect for Australia and John DeLorean was acquitted of all eight charges on possessing and distributing cocaine. Well, enough of the history lesson; let’s jump ahead about four years later. After playing with Duplo since the ripe old age of one and finally being considered mature enough, I was given my older sister’s collection of Lego and there was the start of my brick addiction, friends. Starting out with sets such as the original 6075 Castle, 6375 Exxon Station, 6373 Motorcycle Shop, and even a couple Fabuland characters, it took little time at all before I found myself hooked. Now I hardly built anything one could even consider to be a ‘real’ MOC in today’s traditional sense as it were but more like a bunch of bricks that just so happened to be lying around and got slapped together for the heck of it. The best I can recall of anything semi decent far as builds go was a small store built on a 32x32 baseplate featuring a billboard across the front reading “LEGO MART” with a very yellow color scheme from all those Castle bricks and an interior consisting of a couple checkouts and some odds & ends stuck on shelves, and then there was a storybook opening type tree/fort/home for my favorite minifigure at the time, Majisto the wizard, mainly comprised of parts included from 6048 Majisto’s Magical Workshop.
Surprisingly enough despite having so many City related sets, I always found myself drawn to all outer space and castle themes and still have a fondness for them. I must confess back in the day, City was my least favorite area. The builds seemed rather plain and uninspiring compared to most anything else honestly which was a completely different outlook from today seeing how I found my reason and passion for all things City some years ago and has since become one of my top themes. In my opinion, the current City builds bear a closer resemblance to anything from the real world way more than in years past and designs seem to keep improving all the time. Now if only they would release more housing units for pedestrians. Ah well, that is what Creator is for now, isn’t it?
To give a brief highlight of my collective habits and help speed things along to present day, I have purchased or in the past been given a number of sets under various themes over time. While I don’t quite have all of any single theme on average, I am pretty close to for many like Ice Planet, the first run of Adventurers, or more recently Ninjago. I certainly enjoy smooshing my way into finding a complete set of all Collectible Minifigures in a series which for me is a must; no if’s, and’s, or but’s about it. I also try and purchase a good number of extras for potential custom ideas down the road and a little kitbashing for fun although I still am not a decent or serious MOCer by any means. If anything I am always learning all the interesting tips and unique tricks you would typically see on Flickr and other related websites. My skills lay elsewhere within the realm of drawing, writing, and computers which in a way goes with my profession.
I am a videogame tester who is working his way on learning to be a designer for himself. I will not speak of whom I work for as it really is not impressive anyway unfortunately and would rather keep that bit to myself. To help clarify on what I do basically, if you think all a videogame tester does is sit on his or her butt all day and just play videogames then let me give you a slight reality check. Yes, it does have a rather daily requisite to essentially ‘play’ a videogame but imagine ‘playing’ the same exact area and/or part a thousand times over and over again. Oh, and don’t forget to write down every little odd thing you come across no matter how insignificant it may seem because chances are it isn’t. Then add the part where a good majority of all the time you typically perform this debugging there is a whole bunch of numbers and variables sprawled across the screen which must also be kept track of. Now imagine this whole process going on for weeks or even months on end, and guess what? That was only level one. Still at the end of the day, it is my job as well as a hobby and passion so it isn’t all that bad. Perhaps tiring day in and day out but beats working at a job I would absolutely loath to no end.
You already know a good number of my musical preferences so there is no need to go back down that road, and with the newly started Flick Picks you should eventually get a feel as to what I enjoy watching in my spare time when I have some to spare to begin with. To form a quick summarization for anyone not willing to go through something like probably half a billion posts by now, I will simply say I enjoy music with nicely harmonic rhythms and mostly watch cartoons and comedy films with a couple horror and suspense movies on the side. To name but a few of my top bands, on the guys’ side are The Doors, Billy Joel, and Judas Priest, while for the girls it is Stevie Nicks, Garbage, and Evanescence. Some of my favorite films of all time are Spaceballs, Wizards, and Rear Window, cartoons would be The Real Ghostbusters, Ren & Stimpy, and Samurai Jack, and animes are Guyver, Ghost in the Shell, and Cromartie High School. To end my ‘quick favs’, some top video games would be Mega Man (any of them), Red Asphalt, and Doom.
Well, that was a rather long winded and overdue introduction, wouldn’t you agree? For everyone that actually managed to read my entire ‘great wall of text’, to Ed and Jeff for creating BrickPicker, and to my fellow moderators, I thank you. Every one of you has made me a better person than I was before and I honestly cannot think of a greater gift.
Thank you my friends,
TheOrcKing
 
The best of the best. The Millennium Falcon is the biggest Lego Star Wars set ever produced to this date. The set has 5,195 pieces in the set. The set has 5 minifigures with it. That is a rare feature. I have only seen a few UCS sets that have minifigures. This is my favorite set. I have built this set. It took me a really long time to build it and it was really fun. Here is the Lego.com description of the set:
Build the ultimate Millennium Falcon™!
This is it - the biggest, most spectacular LEGO® model ever! Straight out of the classic Star Wars movies comes the Ultimate Collector's Millennium Falcon, Han Solo's famous smuggling starship. Every detail of the modified Corellian Engineering Corporation YT-1300 freighter is here, all constructed to scale with LEGO minifigures. At almost 3 feet (90cm) long, it's the ultimate centerpiece to any Lego collection!
With over 5,000 pieces, this is the biggest LEGO set ever made! Model is built completely to minifigure scale - minifigures can sit inside and man the controls! Landing gear provides a stable base for model to stand on! Ship is over 33" long, 22" wide and 8" tall! (84cm long x 56cm wide x 21cm tall) Radar dish rotates and elevates and boarding ramp extends! Top and bottom quad-laser turrets rotate for realistic play! Cockpit top can be removed to access minifigures! Includes 5 minifigures: Han Solo, Chewbacca, Obi-Wan Kenobi, Luke Skywalker and Princess Leia Organa! This special set also includes a display card with detailed ship specifications! Let's talk about the investment of this set.
There are two different editions for this set. A first edition and a second edition.
The 1st Edition is the regular set with a special Certificate of Authenticity. People got the COA by being one of the first people to order it online or in stores. The 2 nd Edition is just the set. No COA. The 1st Editions are the rarer ones. From what I have heard, there are only about ten thousand first edition made. (This information may be incorrect). There are far more second editions than first editions.
Here is a big problem. What is the difference between the value of the first edition and second edition models? To answer this question, I am not sure about the values for the different editions. For a fact, I know that the First edition is a lot more valuable than the Second Edition.
Every day on Brickpicker.com, I check the UCS 10179 page, and most of the time see the exact same set for sale for the same price. Here is the link: http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=10179-1
There are various sellers for this set. And there are a lot of buyers for this set. I see that some people are trying to sell their first or second edition UCS Millennium Falcons for tens of thousands of dollars. The set has retailed for $499.99 USD and some people are asking for twenty-five times the retail price. Yet I have to see if anyone has bought these sets.
I do not own this set, but I really want it. If I has the money, I would buy one of them, but I do not have the money. In that case, I was wondering, what would happen if I bought a MISB 10179 First Edition and waited for a few years and then sold it for a big profit? We know that the value will continue to go up. The set has a CAGR of 31.81%. Last month, the set has a CAGR of 32.75%.
There is not much difference for the two CAGR in the begining, but as time progresses, there is a noticable difference. At the current rate, which is 31.81%, the Millennium Falcon will be value at around $5000 in 2015.
If the CAGR and the values are like the chart says, buying it now at a higher price may be an good investing strategy for the future. (I am not suggesting buy this set at a higher price)
If a person decides to go that way there is a BIG risk for going this way. The set may not get valued as high in the future, so that would make it an investment faliure.
If you do want this set as an investment, my suggestion is to look at the value of the set first, then see if any of the secondary market listings are within the value, and espcially below. I would buy anything at a low price, wait a few years, and then sell it. It is a good strategy. It has worked many times for me.
If you bought a MISB Second Edition, 10179 Millennium Falcon for $1000.00. You could sell it the next day for $2500.00 and above. If you bought one at $2500.00, you might have to wait some time before you can make a decnt profit.
There is a good and bad affect buying a set at a certain price. The values for this set is based upon the sold listing on eBay.com. If you buy the set at a low price, then the value might drop a little, but, then it should regain in the near future. This holds the same if you buy a set at a higher price.
In the end, there is a great investment oppertunity for this set. It can bring you big bucks, but you can also lose some with it too. If you are going to invest in this set, be very careful. There is a lot of potential risk and reward hiding every where.
On a side note. Do you think that Brickpicker.com should have different values and CAGR for the different editions for the UCS 10179?
Ever since this since was founded, the CAGR figure has been the go to number in order to determine relative performance as well as forecasting future set growth. The topics addressed previously about this matter are broad in range, but there is one in particular that so far has not been discussed.
As you know, the CAGR of a set is the figure that averages year to year returns of an particular set, but as you probably know the growth trends of LEGO sets after retired do not follow a smooth pattern, as they usually present high volatility as soon as they go EOL and up to a period of around 5 years for most sets, when they traditionally seem to mature. One way to account for this is determining what I call the Two Period CAGR, something that some of you may have seen in some of my reviews for currently available sets.
What does this mean exactly? Well, what we are basically doing when calculating the Two Period CAGR is determining the rate at which a particular set will grow the first few years after it has been retired, while then adding that up to the second growth stage of more modest growth that traditionally follows once a set matures. This calculation has a variety of benefits, but to me the most important one comes down to being able to take the set investors are considering purchasing and comparing it to some similar sets that have already been retired. If investors are able to find at least two comparable sets, one that is still experienced high growth (< 2-4 years) and one that has already matured (> 4 years), then the future value projection can become a lot more accurate and a lot more useful. This is a lot simpler to see with an example, so let's get to it.
(Following numbers are not actual figures, just used for illustrative purposes) (We will assume that all sets are released and retired on the same year)
Let's say you are considering investing in 79003 An Unexpected Gathering, released and retiring on 2013. What you would want to do is go ahead and do some research for similar sets retired on the same theme or at least a theme that can be accurately compared with the LOTR. When researching for these sets, what you want is to find at least two different ones, one that has been retired for around 3 years and one that has been retired for more than 4 years.
Assume that the 2 sets you selected for comparison are:
The Burrow: retired in 2010 and with a current CAGR of 20% Chamber of Secrets: retired in 2007 with a current CAGR of 10% If you really believe these two sets are comparable to An Unexpected Gathering, then you can make an educated guess that probably the set will experience a high growth period with a CAGR of around 20% for its first 3 years and a more modest 10% CAGR once it has been retired for 6 years. Let's now show step by step what you would need to do next:
1- Set up a table in Excel or a similar program where you will project the future value of the set using the long term growth rate and the longest time period. In this case, those numbers would be the ones for the Chamber of Secrets (10% - 6 Years)

This will give you the expected value after 6 years of retirement.
2- Now that you know the long term final value, all you have to do is figure out the ending value for the short term high growth period using the numbers for The Burrow (20% - 3 years)

At this point, you will now the expected value of this set by the end of the third year according to your calculations, $86 in this case, and will be able to decide if it is a worthy investment based on your holding period.
3- Once you have the ending value for the high growth period, you will need to determine the growth rate the set will need to present on the remaining 3 years that will allow it to have a final CAGR of 10%. You will get that number by calculating the CAGR for the last three years using the following inputs:
Beginning Value = The ending value of the high growth period (86)
Ending Value = the ending value you got in Step 1 using the long term CAGR (89)
Number of years = remaining years after high growth period (3)

This will give you a lower CAGR that will get the long term figure to 10%. In this case this number is only around 0.83%, meaning that our set will grow at that yearly rate for the last three years. Usually, the second period CAGR is not as low as this for a number of different reasons, but I thought it would be good to make it as different as possible from the high growth period.

You see that we end up with exactly the same market value after the 6 year have passed both with the 10% smooth growth and with the 20% and then 0.83% two period growth.
4- You can put the results on a graph so that the results are easier to see.


As said before, you will now have two values that you will use to make your investment decision:
Value 6 years after EOL: $89 Value 3 years after EOL: $86 I know it looks complicated, but the more you play with it, the easier it will become. With this you'll be able to know the projected future value at different periods, and that is not only possible with two, you can actually do three or more if you prefer.
A couple of days ago, Brianl3 published a great Blog Article where he described a very simple process to calculate the Compounded Annual Growth rate we use so much on this set. As most of you already know, this figure represents the smoothed growth a set has had over its entire life since being released, and can be usually used to get a fell of how well it has done compared to some of the others.
Now, below you will find an attached Excel spreadsheet with an incorporated CAGR calculator, where you will be able to input the numbers you are interested in evaluating and the program will take care of the calculations for you. As Brianl3 mentioned in his article, you will only need to know and input the Beginning Value, Ending Value and the number of years the set has been on the market
Also, I wanted to add just a couple of things that you may find useful when investing in LEGO that can be calculated from the same CAGR formula. First, by playing around with the formula you will be able to determine the projected future value of a set according to you what you expect its CAGR to be (Something Brian also mentioned in his article). This calculation can be extremely valuable especially if you take a look at comparable sets and are able to make an educated guess about how close a specific set may follow that performance. When doing this, it is extremely important to remember that CAGR is only a 1:1 comparison when the sets have been out for the same time period, otherwise you need to make adjustments to account for the variation.
Another way you can utilize the CAGR formula is to determine how many years will it take for a set to reach a particular value given a specific CAGR. For example, by knowing the set's beginning value, expected final value and CAGR, you will be able to tell how long you would have to wait for it to reach that figure you are looking for. If you make realistic assumptions you will also be able to use to plan some of your holding periods or whether an investment is worth it to you or not.
These two applications to the CAGR formula explained above are also included in the Excel spreadsheet you will find attached to this article. I hope the ability to just input the figures without having to worry about the math will allow you to use the statistic more often to make more informed choices in your future investments.
One last thing I included there, even though it requires more calculations and it is a little more advanced than the rest, is the risk adjusted CAGR. What this calculation does is take into account the Standard Deviation figure you learned to calculate on my previous Blog Article into the CAGR formula, therefore involving the volatility of the set/theme into the ending results. For example, if the CAGR of the entire CITY theme is 20% and the standard deviation is 12%, then the actual Risk Adjusted CAGR ends up being slightly above 17.5%. As you can see, the higher the volatility (risk) of an investment, the lower the risk adjusted growth rate is going to be. This measure can be very helpful when considering the impact of risk in your expected returns and when comparing sets/thems using CAGR.
I hope that most of you will at least take a look and start using all of these measures when planning and evaluating your investments. They can really make a difference
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Note on Excel Attachment: As said before, you will find 4 different calculators in the spreadsheet. The inputs are self-explanatory and you have been dealing with them for probably a long time. The only thing you need to remember is to input the standard deviation as a decimal number when calculating the risk adjusted CAGR and you will be good to go.
Note 2: Numbers in the Excel spreadsheet are current 10179 UCS Millenium Falcon figures. Except for the standard deviation.
Thanks for reading!
 
Calculator.xlsx (10.29KB) : 27

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