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Showing content with the highest reputation on 05/04/2016 in Blog Articles

  1. More often than not, the main question LEGO investors are trying to answer is “When is this set retiring?”. As we all know, once a set is retired is when it really has the potential to start growing in value, so it is not surprising that the EOL question is as common as it is in the forums. However, focusing entirely on currently available sets may be causing investors to miss on a potentially lucrative market: sets that have already been retired for quite some time. It is not the first time I write about this, and I know some of other members like fellow Mod Grolim used to bring up quite often in the earlier years of Brickpicker, but taking a look at my last article pushed me to write about a set that I see as a potential money maker even at its current market value. Before getting into that though, let’s take a look at some of the arguments in favor of investing in retired sets. Removes the uncertainty of retirement date and, in some cases, performance. Investing in retired sets allows you to reap the benefits of growth as soon as you acquire a set, removing the need to park your money waiting for a set to go EOL. Most of the already retired exclusives that are performing great are way more scarce than any of the newer exclusives will be once retired. It is pretty clear that the LEGO investing market has seen an influx of buyer over the past couple years, prompting LEGO to produce more and more of the popular sets and keeping them around longer; the older sets were not as massively produced or hoarded. Of course, there are also a couple of arguments against this practice, and it would not be responsible of me to simply omit them. The ones that come to mind are: Risk of remakes. We have seen the two sides of the coin related to this point, as the remake of the UCS X-Wing failed to completely depress the prices of the older version but the new Winter Village Toy shop completely destroyed 10199. Acquiring an already retired set increases the likelihood that investors will be holding a set at the time a remake is announced. High amounts of capital are usually required. While practically anyone can invest on sets that are currently available, it becomes harder when you are targeting sets that are worth upwards of $500. Also, it is important to mention that this article assumes readers are Buy and Hold type of investors. Flipping and selling other sets in the short term can more than likely generate the same or more returns by moving sets quicker. The case for investing in the UCS Super Star Destroyer Some of you may remember the good old times when we saw the Super Star Destroyer selling for $319 on Amazon. Clearly, those days are over, but that does not mean that it is too late to put some money into this impressive set with the idea of making some good money in a couple of years. Why do I even bring this up? Well, just take a look at the following chart showcasing the performance of some of the UCS sets in the past two years1: 1Actual values for December 2013 and 2015. 2014 Data is just an interpolation. Clearly, the performance of these sets has been outstanding over the past couple of years, and some of them were already extremely expensive back in December, 2013. We are talking about an average return of close to 93% in just 2 years over an average price of $750! (90% if we do a weighted average). Even more impressive, most of the sets shown in the graph above have been retired for more than 5 years at this point. Seeing these levels of growth over just two years indicates how solid most of the UCS models are in the long term. The UCS Super Star Destroyer is already selling for almost $1,000 based on the latest Brickpicker data. As mentioned before, investing in these expensive sets requires a certain amount of capital and a moderately high risk tolerance, but looking at how similarly valued sets have performed in the 2 years we have data for, it is a strategy with high reward potential. Back when the SSD was available for retail it already sold for $400 most of the time, making it one of those sets that are somewhat more difficult to hoard for most investors, reducing supply in the secondary market. Besides this, the set is probably one of the most impressive in both size and detail LEGO has ever released, and one that we are more than likely won’t be re-released for quite some time. LEGO has so many other sets to re-release before we ever see another SSD in stores (Imperial Star Destroyer, Millennium Falcon, Snowspeeder, etc.). Honestly, I see this set with the potential to reach $2,000 in a few years, much like its older sibling the Imperial Star Destroyer. This is only an opinion, but I figured I would bring the topic up for discussion and let each investors make up their own mind about it. Thanks for reading!
    2 points
  2. LEGO Elves was launched in March 2015. This set was released in a small second wave late that summer. I purchased this set at RRP a few days after release, but it has taken me until now to actually put it together. Below is my finished product: SET DETAILS: Set #: 41078 Name: Skyra's Mysterious Sky Castle Theme: LEGO Elves Parts: 808 Regular Retail Price: $79.99 BOX CONTENTS For this set, there are 7 numbered bags, one loose 6 X 12 dark sand beige plate, one sticker sheet, one pegasus-style horse and one thick 132 page instruction book. I liked that the book was a single binding as compared to the multiple inconsistently-sized variety I have seen in other sets. SET AND BUILD OVERVIEW: I will start with the figures, as they are assembled in bags 1 and 3. Mini Dolls (Queen Skyra, Naida the water elf, and Emily Jones) and Pegasus: And their capes: The smaller capes are the standard coarse material while the full-length cape is of a softer, silkier variety. I would like to point out that I had some difficulty stacking both of Queen Skyra’s capes on her very slender neck and then attaching her head. Once assembled, I enjoy the look of the white embellished “collar” against the dark violet cape. Basic assembly of the other figures was fairly simple. It is always a bit tricky to snap the round tile onto the curved elf hand. The pegasus design is nice, but I found myself trying to figure out how to position the wings while the creature is standing. Fully upright wings look too heavy, but when they are placed in a downward posture, I think the animal looks vaguely wounded. BUILDING THE STRUCTURE: Bags 1 through 4 assemble as independent structures. At the end of 4, three of them are connected to provide the base of the finished build while the structure from bag 1 remains separate. (I had a picture of this, but used the box as the background. When putting my review together this image was scrapped because it was hard to see what was box art vs. built pieces in front). Bags 5 and 6 are also assembled independently of the structure, but the resulting piece is attached at the end of the instructions for bag 6. It was a bit tricky to determine the point of attachment for this upper deck. Further scrutiny led me to decide the bottom plate should be flush with the frontmost part of its supporting structure (completed in bag 2). I’m not sure if one could build 5 directly attached to structure 2 because of the portal mechanism. Bag 7 contained all of the finishing touches including the lilac turrets, elemental keys, leaves and jewels. The elemental keys are pretty great looking: But they have no mechanical function (with regard to opening the portal) when they are positioned as pictured in the instructions. I cannot explain this, so I guess I need to watch the show... THE GOOD AND THE BAD: I love the colors! Despite my distaste for mini dolls, Elves is one of my must buy themes because of the colors, shapes, and unique pieces. I like the design of the Element elements. The lilac fences, use of transparent and jewel accents, and the fact that it’s a castle drew me to this one in particular. Build was fairly straightforward and simple without becoming boring or tedious. There was a bit of trouble trying to line up the mech and axle beneath the portal, but I was able to work it out with some determination. NOTE: Younger builders may need assistance with this. The biggest flaw, in my opinion, was the mechanism that opens and closes the portal. It was slightly confusing trying to get it all lined up, and in the end, the portal is activated by turning a large knob. (Again, maybe I need to watch the show). Perhaps Skyra’s sceptre was supposed to turn it, but it doesn’t fit. I think you could use one of the keys, but I believe the idea is that each key needs to be in place to activate the portal. My best guess is that the portal is opened and closed by magic forces, so the actual opening mechanism is not intended to be part of the play function, but I found it disappointing. In my opinion, magic levers should be behind the active play area to maintain the illusion. Queen Skyra: "If you wish to return home, Emily Jones, I must summon the power of the mysterious sky hand to open the portal." Awkward maneuvering as Sky Hand presents itself and completes a quarter-turn of the center pedestal Emily Jones: "Thank you Queen. Your mysterious sky castle is mysterious no more." My only other gripe is regarding the stickers. Although I don’t particularly enjoy ANY stickers, these were the worst kind. I have yet to figure out how to keep my fingerprints from becoming a permanent addition to the application of transparent stickers. I have trouble with small decals as it is, so tweezers or gloves seem to me that they would only add to the clumsiness. Thankfully, all decorated pieces after bag 5 are all pre-printed. All said and done, I enjoyed building it. I understand that the build-by-section method is accepted as a good way to break up the build, but I did find myself asking when is this going to turn into one integrated piece. (I’m still not sure where to position the earth doorway or the dining table). Spare parts: I found it odd that there were so many duplicate spares. The additional fuchsia (official color name?) flowers give the builder an option to balance the bouquets into three of each color (which I prefer). Each round 1 x 1 element tile also has a backup. I can always use extra cherries and cookies, but it would appear that I may have already misplaced one of those spare cookies. INVESTMENT POTENTIAL? My best guess is that this will have little demand as a set. There are some new and unique elements from a parts perspective, but there’s no real way to tell if they will stay rare as more sets are produced. If you can pick one up for yourself or as a gift, great. If plan to buy this as an investment, I think you will be hard-pressed to find a buyer desperate enough for this one to pay above RRP. (As of now, this set is already being reduced at major retail outlets). That's my two cents. Thanks for listening. Disclaimer: This being my first published review, I recognize that my photography leaves a lot to be desired. I appreciate your patience through my learning stage.
    1 point
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