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The Proposal Looking at one and done themes, both in terms of one wave and an availability of one year (and change), can an investor learn anything? Short answer: maybe. Long answer: maaaaaaybe. I'd like to spend a little time talking about the Castle theme. Availability from brickset.com lists May 28th, 2013 to December 22nd, 2014. Yes, I know this might be stretching the aforementioned 'one and change' but actual production was likely much closer to one year with the later EOL date the result of stock being depleted after the final production run. Let's get started... The Forums The Castle 2013 thread was essentially a discussion of why the 2013 was inferior to Kingdoms and other earlier iterations. Little talk of investment potential or future projections, and not too much chatter even as EOL approached. Many liked the dragon in Dragon Mountain. Some didn't. The 70404 King's Castle thread was similar. It started with a bang – a divisive set from the get go with some forum 'bantering' about the overall 'kiddiness' or 'juniorization' of the set as well as 'discussion' in the form of wild speculation (even before the set was released!). I was pleased to see I posted in that thread! Go me! It wasn't my best post, but certainly not my worst. I give it a B- grade. (See it on page 1 of 3 in the 70404 thread). The best information that can be gleaned from the paltry three pages came courtesy of J-Mack, who (I'm paraphrasing) thought King's Castle would hit $200 tops. Amazon has it at $199 as of mid-February 2016 so it turns out the guy might have a pretty good understanding of the Lego secondary market. One factor that might prove him wrong – well, not wrong, per se, but perhaps too conservative, is the lack of a similar replacement on the horizon. Nexo Knights doesn't seem like much of a direct competitor, so perhaps Christmas 2016 will see prices somewhere between $220-240? The CAGR (US) Data taken Feb. 2016 Set # Set Name CAGR% (BP Data Feb 2016) MSRP (US) 70400 Forest Ambush -0.06 $11.99 70401 Gold Getaway 2.98 $19.99 70402 Gatehouse Raid 8.95 $29.99 70403 Dragon Mountain 10.7 $49.99 70404 King's Castle 25.57 $99.99 I think the Gatehouse Raid got a little boost from the fact that it can be used to expand 70404, and was a little surprised that Dragon Mountain wasn't a bit stronger. King's Castle hit the sweet spot. While 70404 was probably harder for most folks to get on clearance, I think it is reasonable to assume that many got it with a solid discount and have had the opportunity to double their initial investment. As for the smaller sets, I think I take away from this that money could only be easily made with deep clearance sales. I recently passed on some of the smallest set from the Pirates theme at nearly 50% off, but did end up biting at 75% off. Of course, smart investors can always bundle some of the smaller sets with 70404 but my personal experience selling King's Castle over the holidays was 9 solo sets to 2 bundles. What Did We Learn? The forums didn't really provide a lot of useful information. In fact, the forums might have dissuaded folks from buying these to their own detriment. I think we also learned that the largest set in the theme provided the best total profit as well as the best CAGR%. It tells me I should probably get out there and get the last of the Brick Bounty sets still in the wild, for one, and that I can probably pass on the other sets in the Pirates line (no good comparison to Dragon Mountain or even Gatehouse Raid). It also helps me look at other themes more critically to try and maximize profit. Veegs

A long time ago in an investing world far, far away from 2016, a Lego Friends kit set the world afire. This is the story, as told by me, with mostly conjecture and wild assumptions. I've linked the data I perused. CamelCamelCamel Buy me now: Amazon The Boom The forums were surprisingly quiet in the official 41015 thread, but I do recall most of the chatter in the Daily Deals thread and the What Set Did You Sell Today thread. Camelcamelcamel.com shows the Christmas of 2013 as a sharp, powerful thrust upwards, peaking at $139.99. For a set that debuted less than four months prior to that spike, it represented a dream scenario for the QFLL in all of us. It was hot. Like Hansel-type hot (Zoolander references are cool again, right?). I believe some forum members posted nabbing Cruisers in store and listing them on the way to their car, only to find they had sold by the time they got home. Other forum members might recall some guy(s) boasting about flipping these in the parking lots, too. Canadians did better (I didn't look at other markets but smaller markets likely also had better flip opportunities) with the set peaking at $220+ CAD on Amazon.ca in December 2013, but I'm sure the US market moved a heck of a lot more volume. Cool set, Friends was hot and in the news and demand outstripped supply, which made for easy money for some. The Bust Since that first fated Christmas, two more visits from St. Nicholas have come and gone, and, while the DC isn't available from Shop at Home, it is still lingeringly available at some retailers in Canada and at major retailers in the US (and on sale from Amazon.com!). For those that purchased at or near MSRP, hoping for a repeat of 2013, profits were hard if not impossible to realize. In the Canadian market, the numbers were slightly better, with sales around $120 (CAD) for both holiday seasons but the largest market, the US, largely traded at or even under MSRP during prime selling season. I'm sure there will be a couple forum members who managed to make the best out of this situation (clearance finds, local flips for cash or other success stories), but I think it is fair to say that for most casual investors, a sure-thing super-hot 2013 item has been decidedly uncool for the last couple of years. Like arctic uncool. The Sleeper Some folks still aren't huge on Lego Friends, and I've heard some of the reasons why, but the 33.17 CAGR (as of Feb, 2016) is absolutely mind-blowing. I don't know how you can argue with a theme doing so well. At all. Sure, you still shouldn't go out and buy any/every Friends set and expect it to do well, but it seems with some careful research and planning that money can (and is) being made with the pink bricks. With fantasy baseball season coming up, I'll use baseball analogies. So, the DC was the hot prospect who had a great rookie year, only to have a (double) sophomore slump. This is where a lot of drafters look for sleepers. The reasoning is the player (or set) clearly had some raw talent or potential to do well. External factors and the grind of a couple years limited overall growth, but that just means the player is primed to breakout and enter their prime (usually around 27 years old) and have a career year that then lets said player command a big free agent deal and live happily ever after. People liked/loved the Cruiser before. It is a boat. It is a nice box and looks cool. The Grand Hotel gave the whole Friends line a lot more credibility (at least in my eyes) as well as raising what I'll call the 'price ceiling' of the line. What I mean is that having larger/more expensive sets that do well might add to the perceived value of other Friends sets giving them more secondary market growth potential. Maybe. At least I believe it, even if I haven't convinced you. I am reasonably confident that by Christmas 2016, the Dolphin Cruiser will begin to show some solid gains (at least $150 CAD on amazon.ca in my mind) and could easily be 2x MSRP by 2017 (or better). Or perhaps I'm delusional – only time will tell!

There have been many recent articles, all over the web, in local papers and on the radio. They're saying that LEGO investing is better than gold. It's sensationalist. It excites the imagination. It sounds easy. These articles point up the sets that have increased in value many times above their initial costs. Dreamers sweep store shelves expecting instant returns and easy money. Conventional wisdom says that you'll never lose money on LEGO, it will always be worth at least what you bought it for. What if it's not? I'd like to take a journey through the dusty backrooms of stores and the dark corners of investor's storage areas to look at some themes that proved to be so unpopular that if their demand and value hasn't remained flat, it actually got worse. These are themes that got the same market push as every other theme, but failed to capture the target audience. Let's take a look at some licensed themes from recent history: The first theme that we'll take a look at is Prince of Persia. Disney's attempt to turn a video game franchise into a profitable film franchise. LEGO released 6 Sets consisting of 7569 Desert Attack, 7570 The Ostrich Race, 7571 The Fight for the Dagger, 7572 Quest Against Time, 7573 Battle of Alamut, and 20017 Dagger Trap Polybag. All combined, this theme sold at retail for a total of $190.95 (Pre Tax of course,) the current value of these sets averages to $178.75. That's a return of 94% of the initial investment. It would be worse if not for the Polybag, which I calculated at retail of free because I couldn't find any data about cost. (So, I assumed it was free.) The second licensed theme that we'll discuss is The Lone Ranger. (Personally, I loved these sets and wanted more. {if I could get them on steep discount.}) Disney released the Lone Ranger to poor reception and poor reviews. The days of the Western might be dead, and this theme sure did seem like a nail in the coffin. This theme consisted of 6 sets and 2 Polybags. They are 79106 Cavalry Builder set (How they can be cavalry without horses I don't know. I guess Artillery is confusing,) 79107 Comanche Camp, 79108 Stagecoach Escape, 79109 Colby City Showdown, 79110 Silver Mine Shootout, 79111 Constitution Train Chase, 30260 Lone Ranger's Pump Car, and 30261 Tonto's Campfire. The combined retail total before tax is $291.92 but when I get the average sold price for the last 6 months on Bricklink they sold for a grand total of $283. Slightly better than Prince of Persia with 97% remaining value. It's probably not LEGO's fault that these themes died on the vine. Some might argue that if the source material had been better received, there would be greater demand on the aftermarket. It's a fair argument, but you could also point out that if LEGO had done a better job on the sets, they might have succeeded despite the failures of the original properties. If you think it's the fault of the source material, let's take a look at a LEGO owned theme that they got very wrong. For our non licensed theme we'll look at the horror of Galaxy Squad. It is a continuation/expansion of the classic Space theme. Science Fiction has been popular for a long time, and little boys have always wanted to be an astronaut and kill space bugs. This theme had a whopping 10 sets and 2 polybags. The sets are 70700 Space Swarmer, 70701 Swarm Interceptor, 70702 Warp Stinger, 70703 Star Slicer, 70704 Vermin Vaporizer, 70705 Bug Obliterator, 70706 Crater Creeper, 70707 CLS-89 Eradicator Mech, 70708 Hive Crawler, 70709 Galactic Titan, with polybags 30230 Mini Mech, and 30231 Space Insectoid. That's about 4000 pieces of fun right there. All of those sets together would cost $479.38 at retail before tax. How much is Bricklink's average sold price for the entire series? $320. You're losing a full third of your initial investment if you bought these at retail and sold them for the average price. Are these the only themes that have lost money? By no means. Early predictions are putting the future of Chima in the toilet. I'll let those of you inclined to do so research other past themes to see which ones should cause speculators to run for the hills. For those people who jumped in head first, thinking that investing in LEGO would be like printing money, this should serve as a sobering wake-up call. If you had bought any of these themes at retail, you'd have saved yourself time by handing $5 bills to random people on the street, or better yet, save the money by burying it in a coffee can in your backyard. With every success story and humble brag about the times when someone guessed right, there's someone cursing the hundreds or thousands of dollars tied up in inventory, eating storage space. What can you do with all those Ostrich Races or Crater Creepers? I hear Toys for Tots accepts any toy that is unopened and unwrapped. You could break them down for parts, but that's a whole different headache. The average values that I list are not a complete indication of the value of these sets. Looking at Bricklink, many have sold or are currently available for notably less than the average. On the other hand, some bought these sets at significantly below average pricing. Prince of Persia has 2 unique animals (ostrich and camel) that have some demand on the parts market. Some people are making money on these sets. Smart money avoided these themes from the beginning, most even avoided them on clearance. Some, however, are wondering if it's possible to use these sets to make storage for their moneymaking investment. If you haven't thought about it, even if you sold at the listed average price, the amount of your return is at least 7% lower due to fees. If you're buying LEGO for investment and you don't know or don't care about the themes that you are buying, chances are that you're throwing money away.