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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/20/2016 in Blog Articles

  1. For as long as I can remember, people have been puzzled by my interest in many things that were “for boys”, and I have been equally puzzled by why toys have a gender at all. As much as I am genetically and physically female, I have never been one to adhere to the likes and behaviors deemed appropriate to my gender. I am a builder and a creator. Both of my parents worked as computer engineers (although I used to think they worked on a train), so my brain and its nurturing were focused heavily on math and science. As a child, I liked toys that were fun to me, and I am thankful that my parents never tried to limit my curiosity and affinity based upon some societal norm. I loved jigsaw puzzles and my father’s vintage erector set, and I built elaborate homes for all of my Barbie dolls using blocks and bricks. I had a little bit of everything (partially because I grew up affluent and spoiled), but if I had to pick a favorite toy, it would be Lego. Sometimes, I did wonder why their were so few girls in my favorite Lego sets, but it never swayed my feelings I never expected to be a minority. I grew up white as can be in white suburbia, in a nice town, in a great school system getting average grades. I loved blocks, and ponies, and riding my bike. Nothing about my childhood seemed anything other than typical. It wasn't until college that my being female made me feel any different. I majored in Accounting and minored in Comp Sci at a liberal arts college with a 75% female student body. My business classes were 75% male and I was the only female in a class of 30 in my minor. Growing up, I never heard anyone say “you can’t do that because you're a girl”, so I never felt that way, but it was still a bit odd to be surrounded by men while exploring MY interests. My Lego collection (mostly Pirates, Castle and City) had a similar affliction. Though I did delight at the nuance of the rare female pirate, I never let a silly thing such as whether or not my toys were intended for girls or boys determine what I really liked. I viewed my education and intended career with the same carefree attitude, although I still remember my one female accounting professor enlightening me to the fact that only 10% of CPAs are women. Years passed. I finished school. I got a job. I got married. I started a family. I quit working 3 days before the birth of my 4th and final female child (my poor husband is plagued with daughters). At that point, I started to notice all the ways in which I am a minority. As an SAHM, I am part of only 24% of US mothers. The majority work at least part-time. I have more kids than the national average, and as a result, a minuscule net worth. The most important way that I am a minority, is because of my intelligence. According to SAT and GRE scores, I am ranked in the highest 5% of the population (among those who have taken these tests). Needless to say, after the first year at home, I got bored. Hence, I came out of my dark ages, just as my oldest decided she NEEDED the full line of Harry Potter Lego. I never much cared that Lego was "for boys". I just really liked the product. My girls and I are Lego maniacs, and I wouldn't have it any other way. Close to a year ago, I registered on BrickPicker. I read the forums, but didn't start posting until a few months ago. I had no idea I had so much to say. It was refreshing to chat with “adults”. As an AFOL, I really liked finding a place to share my thoughts instead of monopolizing the time of my local Lego Store employees. As an AFFOL (the first F stands for female), I started to notice just how very male the Lego reseller market is. As with most things, it doesn't really matter to me, but I do find it a point to ponder. I look forward to sharing with you as I explore the impact of gender on Lego sales and marketing.
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  2. Good news for some, bad news for some and irrelevant news to others! Must be a BigBlueDogBricks post by yours truly, Veegs! "The True North Strong and (Almost?) Free - Loonie Slide to 59!" That phrase plays on the words to our National Anthem O Canada, and is possibly amusing to some? First, a link to the article - although most major Canadian papers had this or a variation on it today: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/macquarie-loonie-forecast-1.3401644 As the article states, the loonie (Canadian $1 dollar coin, for those unaware) is forecasted to continue its slide against the U.S. Greenback, perhaps to an (shudder) all time low. Grim things for some in the Canadian economy, but probably pretty good for Lego investors up north. The forecast also indicates this low rate might be the norm until 2018 although I hesitate to put much stock in a prediction that far off. So, my spin – feel free to disagree or grab pitchforks, or agree heartily and raise a toast to me in the comments. #1 Cheapest Lego Sets in the World? I'm no math-magician – I'm an English teacher, damnit, but if these forecasts are correct it will be cheaper to buy some (if not all) sets in Canada, especially a slew of sets that have a small current price gap compared to the US. Fairground Mixer, Slave 1, etc (the list is long). A 20 or 30% discount in Canada might now give Canadian buyers a buy-in on sets that would rival some of the greatest TRUTH Tactics deals I've seen or super-out-of-the-way-major-discount finds in the Daily Deals US/CAN thread (which are mostly US deals). For sellers close to the border, stock runs to Canada might be more common, or bulk buys from Brickpicker to Brickpicker across the border. I know some US 'pickers are already buying exclusives in Canada, but I'd expect that number to grow if the advantage continues to widen making it financially feasible/more enticing for our southern brothers/sisters to come north to buy. Right now Canadians are at a small advantage – another 10 cent drop pushes that advantage noticeably. #2 Ability to Undercut American Sellers For me, the U.S. Market sets Lego prices in Canada, and I use them as a baseline when pricing items. I assume a lot (if not almost everyone) does the same. In the last few weeks I've sold a few sets to US buyers after not selling much in the previous entire year. Coincidence? Perhaps. I do know that even with higher shipping costs (on average, based on BP threads and info) from Canada, the slide of the loonie more easily allows me to attract US buyers and opens up a new marketplace for me (and other Canadians) that earlier either couldn't or wouldn't be able to compete with US sellers. I think over the holiday season, over a hundred Sea Cows were sold to Canadians (likely mostly investors, including yours truly!) with many getting them for $175 or $180 CAD, tax in. That is insane! That is about $125 USD according to the currency exchange site I punched these numbers into. If Canadians can continue to get great deals in addition to a favorable exchange rate, US investors might find the marketplace even more crowded than before. I'd say buy in price and set choice becomes even more important in this environment. In addition, for those buying on credit or accruing debt, more potential sellers (Canadians) that are already good at listing, printing labels and being pretty efficient entering the market should breed more caution. The investor with the lowest buy in can undercut others (if necessary) either forcing competitors to take a loss or hold sets longer. I know the Sea Cow is 'hot' right now, but there was likely enough stock sold at rock bottom prices in Canada to effectively undercut most sellers on eBay for quite some time. Of course, there are plenty of other factors, but the Sea Cow seems to me to be an example of how a cheap loonie coupled with good Canadian deals could really affect the reselling marketplace in at least the short term. #3 Short Golden Age? Tough to imagine that The Lego Group will keep Canadian prices cheaper or even balanced relative to American prices if the loonie indeed loses value and stays low until 2018, as predicted. Future sets might get a new pricing structure. A worst case scenario would be a new pricing structure on all currently available sets, suddenly decreasing the pricing advantage in place now. For global users, I don't know if this will impact you much, but it could be a heads up that currency fluctuations should be part of your investing homework (I did mention I'm a teacher) as changes in your region/target markets will happen and you need to be able to adapt and try to make the situation work for you and your bottom line. Veegs (BigBlueDogBricks)
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  3. A happy belated New Year to all my readers, all nine of you. May this coming year bring you discounted exclusives, 80% clearance finds in out of the way stores on long retired merchandise and superb buyer feedback in 2016. I'd also like to quickly take a sentence to remind readers that the Mack's, a.k.a. The Founders, a.k.a. The Collectors, a.k.a. The Guys Who Made Me Take the Blue Pill, are still raising money for St. Paul's and it would be a darn shame not to support such a great cause. I could cite a boatload of research that supports the notion that giving money away makes the giver undeniably happier, or could chastise those that read content (including this rubbish) but don't want to give back in any way, but I'd rather give a polite reminder that time is running out to buy tickets and the sets up for grabs could easily be the centerpiece of a budding collection. At the minimum, there should be lots of great stockroom photo sharing when these sets find new homes, and hopefully some education for little Macks. Back to business. What is BigBlueDogBricks targeting for 2016 in terms of exclusives? I'm sure everyone is waiting with bated breath to see what Ol' Blue is favoring, but I'll give a little background in case you are new to my flow. This will be my fourth year dabbling in Brickvesting (yeah, I'm starting to feel a little bro-ish using that term...might have to coin something new) and I am now confident classifying myself as a solid middle tier investor. I see lots of new members posting in various forums and can only assume you might want to hear a little advice on what kind of buying someone who was once like you is preparing to do. Side anecdote: Just before Christmas I was contacted by a fellow in the Greater Toronto Area who wanted to buy a couple of large sets. We chatted back and forth and he correctly assumed that because I had so many listings I was doing this as more than a casual hobby (like someone 'accidentally' has hundreds of Lego sets for sale at the same time?) and he asked a few questions about Lego investing and such. Yeah, not much of an anecdote yet...Anyway, he tells me that along with his brother they are getting into Lego and think investing is cool. They opt not to buy any of my sets (although they were underpriced from ebay sales around 20-25%, and I sold a couple of the sets they were interested in within a week for more than what they thought was too steep) but he did end with an interesting question – so you're buying tons of Pet Shops and Tower Bridges now, right? I chuckled, because I think people often get drawn to Brickpicker and think the big shiny sets are the easiest way to get started. I am a prophet preaching Anything But Modulars now, though, as I believe there are quite a few better strategies to be successful that are faster and provide a greater overall return than simply picking the current oldest modular and throwing money at it. Worst. Strategy. Ever. So, if you are relatively new or just don't have a lot of capital to invest what should you buy from the exclusives? Well, I've ordered my 2016 picks chosen from all the sets under the 'Hard to Find' label on Shop at Home (Canada), along with a quick rundown of why it deserves that ranking. I'll be back soon to talk about large (but not exclusive) sets that are on my buy list, and finish up with a smaller sets hit list. Fun! BigBlueDogToys Anything But Modulars Buy List Order, Winter 2016, Exclusives Ewok Village 10236 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 149 in building sets I'm sure plenty of other investors have this at or near the top of their list. It is the oldest Star Wars large (not officially a UCS) set and, in case you don't know, Star Wars is totally a thing with people. They by and large seem to love it, if box office results indicate anything. It was listed as 'check back in February' for a few months (but was always available to buy at other retailers, at least in Canada) and is now listed as temporarily out of stock. Rumors have maybe three or four large Star Wars sets in the pipeline, so something seemingly has to give. I'm not advocating going crazy for a small to mid-sized investor (I have four from a flash sale from Walmart Canada) but it will probably be the first set I buy during the next double VIP + promo event. If you want to read a lot of Ewok love (or conversely a lot of Ewok hate) the dedicated thread is long and I can summarize: opinion seems divided, not much in the middle. I'm a lover, not a fighter, so these furballs are alright with me. Despite a good sales rank, it hasn't been around nearly as long as the modulars on my dishonorable mentions list so I'll let its current relative popularity slide. The S.H.I.E.L.D. Helicarrier 76042 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 344 in Building Sets A couple of whispers from far off places (Singapore, if you don't care to read the retiring soon thread religiously) have this retiring sooner rather than later. Limit is 1 from Shop at Home. It is massive. Ewoks are running circles around it according to sales rank. So why buy? Unlikely to ever be remade, I'd say, or at least not anytime soon. Difficult for small and medium-sized investors to hoard a set this large and expensive. Marvel fatigue might be setting in a bit (perhaps more of a Superheroes malaise, really) although I think the core fan base will still buy. Hasn't been around that long, but I'd still rather use double VIP to get a couple in the spring and then reevaluate. The Fairground Mixer 10244 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 840 in Building Sets Overall the worst sales rank of the sets I've chosen to focus on today, which makes me happy. Almost swapped this with the Helicarrier...consider it a toss up for me. A poor seller in a crowded Lego release schedule seems very likely to get the axe sooner rather than later. I have a couple now but would actually be quite happy to aim for double digits here. I think it is a unique kind of set and is priced well for Canada! I was happy to grab Maersk EEEs when they were sitting with the retiring soon label for months and others were buying (presumably) modulars. I've sold some of those EEEs while those that invested in other large sets are potentially still sitting on them, and I've got cash profits to put into another hidden gem. It will be interesting to see if a third carnival type set gets released this summer, or if the Friends rollercoaster (heavily rumored) and other fairground sets are released in its stead. This summer the set will turn two, it isn't a great seller at the moment and doesn't get a ton of chatter on Brickpicker. I am going to throw a little money down on this one. Or a lot. The Simpsons House 71006 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 229 in Building Sets I loved this set a couple months ago, and still love it now. Solid seller, not as flashy in sales numbers as a few other very large sets. Read more here: Sandcrawler 75059 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 285 Second oldest Star Wars UCS-type set after Ewok Village. Reasoning is largely the same as Ewok Village, as I think this won't make it to 2017, comes from a hugely popular line and looks ballin'. I nod to EV first as I am afraid the Ewoks might not make it until Q4 (a.k.a. Retirement season) but I'm willing to gamble the Sandcrawler will. Also use some Helicarrier reasoning here: massive set, big price tag and big box keeps a lot of smaller and even mid-sized investors from going too deep on it (at least most of them). There you have it – this is a shopping list of what I'd like to nab during the spring double VIP. I'm not going to panic and grab them earlier as I am reasonably confident the sets on this list will not suddenly become unavailable permanently in February, and every percent discount or promo makes me more competitive in a crowded marketplace. I'm not going to order more than one or two of each, and not in quick succession or anything crazy that would merit a ban hammer, but will spread them over a week or two as I've done every promo period in the last couple years. Honorable Mentions Volkswagen T1 – Sales rank 385. Sales number indicates perhaps (finally) a little buyer fatigue? It has been out for seemingly forever and the new box design in 2015 virtually guaranteed (at least to me) that there would still be more time in 2016 to get more (not that I need more). I'll reevaluate in a few months. Those hoping The Lego Group wouldn't want three large car models on the shelves at the same time must be gutted. Mini Cooper – Sales rank 495. Slower than the T1, so an argument could be made that it might be retired ahead of the T1, which will become the new Death Star a.k.a. Live Star. Sydney Opera House – Sales rank 412. Tower Bridge is 183. Significant difference? As far as I know, the Opera House doesn't have a new box design, while the Tower Bridge does. I'd wager this goes in 2016 and the Tower Bridge stays. Just a hunch. That being said, I personally don't like the Opera House as much as a few of the others on this list, and I don't have enough money to go 5-10 deep on every set. I can't see myself wanting/getting more than 4-5 of these. It has also been discounted in other markets which has generally been linked to sets that are on the way out. If my sales stay strong this might get some love in the next few months. Dishonorable Mentions Pet Shop – Sales rank 89. 89! That is gross. I think modulars look like easy money and lots of folks are drawn in by them, but if it keeps selling this well I'm not convinced it will even retire this fall. If you are starting out, no problem grabbing one or two, but I think it is insane to tie up too much capital here. Plenty of other sets out there that should/could retire sooner and give a cash return faster. Palace Cinema – Sales rank 145. Also gross! If the Pet Shop didn't retire, then the Cinema HAS TO, right? AMITRITE? Perhaps not. Given sales numbers, why shouldn't the Lego Group have five modulars available at the same time? As long as investors keep stocking them away, I suspect they'll retire slowly. The difficulty for me is that in a perfect world, I would have piles and piles of each set, especially exclusives but that isn't realistic. I require stock turnover and sales to drive new investment, and my success (or failure) to move stock dictates approximately what I can spend. The spring double VIP event will be a good time to add a few large sets that I hope/expect/pray will retire at some point in 2016. When each set starts doing the in and out of stock dance, I'll probably squeeze some funds together to buy some from another large retailer, but I like to get at least a couple of each targeted set from Shop at Home in the mid to late cycle of its life. If you think I should be buying more Pet Shops, sound off in the comments section! Veegs (BigBlueDogBricks)
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  4. Note: spoilers are included within this article Season 2.5 Details Lego Rebels fans can tune to Disney (or one of the many mobile device apps) tomorrow evening (Jan. 20) to watch the first of ten new episodes. We have interesting story-lines ahead that will not only please regular viewers but should inject renewed investing focus into this Star Wars Lego sub-theme. All 10 episode titles and synopsis were published online yesterday but has been removed due to possibly being fake (see tweet below) Known Details as of Jan 19 Vader returns and is voiced again by James Earl Jones. A dual between Vader and Ahsoka Tano is 99% certain. Note: It was first reported on Brickpicker.com before other web sites the upcoming Lego Darth Vader Tie Fighter set is Rebels-based. Kanan, Ahsoka and Ezra travel to a Sith Temple. Expect at least one additional Inquisitor to be introduced. Yoda makes a cameo. Ezra holds a cross-guard Lightsaber similar to the one Klyo Ren used in the film. Hera and her Twi'lek father, Cham Syndulla reunite. A teenage Princess Leia is introduced. Jedi Temple Guards appear. Rumored backgrounds of Zeb and Sabine (Mandalorians) are explored. 1 episode for each character is predicted. Holocrons return. Lego Investment Growth Lego Rebels debuted in 2014 with additional sets introduced last year. More information about the line can be seen by clicking the link below. http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/sets.cfm?theme=704&subtheme=722 According to @Jeff Mack and @Ed Mack 's current price guide, Rebel sets are averaging a +19.34% growth from Nov. to Dec. 2015. This is most likely due to sets retiring, becoming harder to locate at retail and being part of general Star Wars demand (The Force Awakens film). If we remove the latest set produced (75106 : Imperial Assault Carrier from Summer 2015), the growth increases to +22.67%. I believe this 1 month growth demonstrates strong secondary buyer demand for Lego Rebels regardless of the holiday season. This theme seems to be clicking with both KFOLs and AFOLs. Check-out Lego.com and Amazon.com for in-stock Lego Rebels sets. http://click.linksynergy.com/fs-bin/click?id=jfOcdvfTNg4&subid;=&offerid=115554.1&type=10&tmpid=2294&RD_PARM1= http://search-en.lego.com/?q=Rebels&cc=US http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=sr_in_-2_p_6_3?fst=as%3Aoff&rh=n%3A165793011%2Ck%3Alego+star+wars+rebels%2Cp_6%3AATVPDKIKX0DER&bbn=165793011&keywords=lego+star+wars+rebels&ie=UTF8&qid=1453216555&rnid=275224011?tag=brickpicker-20 Season 2's Mid-Season trailer can be viewed below for additional goodness and be sure to participate in the Rebels topic. Forum topic link =
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