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Will winter sets drop in value ? (because of the new carnival theme)


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A topic to discuss about the winter sets since the carnival set is known...

 

First, do you think there will be some more winter sets to come, or is the Winter Village Market (10235) the last one, and some kind of a transition with the new carnival theme set (10244) that has been shown ?

It would explain why LEGO 10235 has been retired so quickly (if you put aside snow and winter, it's about the same "spirit" as the "10244 carnival mixer" with bunch of small stands around a big roundabout)

 

If the Carnival Theme replaces the Winter Village theme, do you think winter sets will drop in value ? (people focusing on the new carnival theme)

 

I think the winter sets have the "Xmas" spirit, and the carnival a "Summer break" one, so WV sets will not drop... on the contrary, value may increase because of the lack of winter theme sets.

 

What's your opinion ?

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I think all the older (pre Cottage) WW sets will do great and continue to slowly increase until they hit around 250$/300$ thats their definite ceiling in my eyes....

 

As for the Cottage and Market I am not overly optimistic :)

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HELL ! :(

 

I thought it was nearly-official that a new carnival theme was coming... It looks like I would better have started a topic named "do you think the carnival set announces a whole new theme ?"

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I hope it is a new theme, but even if it isn't I'm happy with the design of this one, it just sucks that this does not contain Power Functions. Back in the days of the Grand Carousel it retailed for $150, had almost 3000 pieces and ALSO contained Power Functions plus a sound brick!

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I hope it is a new theme, but even if it isn't I'm happy with the design of this one, it just sucks that this does not contain Power Functions. Back in the days of the Grand Carousel it retailed for $150, had almost 3000 pieces and ALSO contained Power Functions plus a sound brick!

PF is universal. It is wise that they don't bump up the price with bundling since many people have PF and wouldn't want to pay the extra for more. It only makes sense with Technic, because they are useless without it, but a display set does not necessarily need one.

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Overall they are likely to be quite different. It`s probable that Lego will release more Carnival sets (bumper cars would be great!) but really it`s going to come down to the individual sets themselves. No way to tell this early on if one will have a significant impact on the other. Ask this question a year or two from now if more sets from either theme have been released  :thumbsup:

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Overall they are likely to be quite different. It`s probable that Lego will release more Carnival sets (bumper cars would be great!) but really it`s going to come down to the individual sets themselves. No way to tell this early on if one will have a significant impact on the other. Ask this question a year or two from now if more sets from either theme have been released  :thumbsup:

Release of additional sets will depend on the demand for this one, I am pretty sure of it.

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If the Carnival Theme replaces the Winter Village theme, do you think winter sets will drop in value ? (people focusing on the new carnival theme)

 

 

Uhm... if it really WAS like that - people losing interest in specific sets because those sets or the whole theme are discontinued - wouldn't this be the complete opposite of the idea of Lego investments?! I mean the concept of Lego investing is fundamentally based on the fact that people become MORE INTERESTED in sets and themes that cannot be bought anymore. So how do you come to the conclusion that - in this case - people would suddenly LOSE INTEREST in the Winter Village theme BECAUSE it is discontinued?

 

If I am just getting your argument wrong, please clear it up.

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Uhm... if it really WAS like that - people losing interest in specific sets because those sets or the whole theme are discontinued - wouldn't this be the complete opposite of the idea of Lego investments?! I mean the concept of Lego investing is fundamentally based on the fact that people become MORE INTERESTED in sets and themes that cannot be bought anymore. So how do you come to the conclusion that - in this case - people would suddenly LOSE INTEREST in the Winter Village theme BECAUSE it is discontinued?

 

I agree, this thread is mostly nonsense. As much sense as arguing that a set going EOL might be a bad thing, since less people will know about it.

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I think people will just get more divided in deciding what to buy. We love Winter Village for the snow covered holiday festivity of it all and, should Lego expand the theme park idea in the future, we will end up loving those too for the fun atmosphere they promote. Having so many great (expensive) choices will serve in making things more difficult for the 'Average Joe' and most assuredly force him/her to later buy the set on the secondary market for a higher markup.

Anyway, there isn't any reason why either subtheme can't coexist. Taking a couple of your words, Winter Village is to the cold season as theme park is to summer. Now again, the idea of an amusement park theme is just something we as a community made up really.

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Uhm... if it really WAS like that - people losing interest in specific sets because those sets or the whole theme are discontinued - wouldn't this be the complete opposite of the idea of Lego investments?! I mean the concept of Lego investing is fundamentally based on the fact that people become MORE INTERESTED in sets and themes that cannot be bought anymore. So how do you come to the conclusion that - in this case - people would suddenly LOSE INTEREST in the Winter Village theme BECAUSE it is discontinued?

 

If I am just getting your argument wrong, please clear it up.

 

 

 

The point is the more choice people have the less chance is they pick the Winter theme = less people interested = less profit....

 

Its that simple.

 

If I would just be LEGO collector and I come collecting LEGO and I see Carnival theme and I see Winter theme for 250$ per set (because its retired) I would more likely pick Carnival theme unless you are extremely in ''love'' with Winter theme....

 

But if Winter theme continues and I buy 1 Winter theme set on retail, I might be more willing to pay premium for old winter sets to increase my Winter collection.

 

Plain logic for me it is.

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The carnival is a one off set, it is not a continuing theme. The winter theme will continue. 10235 is not retired and will be available at the end of this year along with the new set (Santa's workshop). 10229 is retired. All winter sets will do well in the USA as they are very collectible and will not be rehashed. The winter theme (as well as the super hero theme) is a no show in Europe.

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The winter theme (as well as the super hero theme) is a no show in Europe.

Bat cave (from superheroes theme) is discontinued in UK and for less than 6 months. Its already 29% above RRP and was over 25% below RRP for a long time before it went.

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The point is the more choice people have the less chance is they pick the Winter theme = less people interested = less profit....

 

Its that simple.

 

If I would just be LEGO collector and I come collecting LEGO and I see Carnival theme and I see Winter theme for 250$ per set (because its retired) I would more likely pick Carnival theme unless you are extremely in ''love'' with Winter theme....

 

But if Winter theme continues and I buy 1 Winter theme set on retail, I might be more willing to pay premium for old winter sets to increase my Winter collection.

 

Plain logic for me it is.

That's what I meant, thanks.

 

Also, if WV is discontinued (that's my biggest fear :( ), I wonder if some collectors wouldn't grow tired of winter sets taking dust in boxes (first one released in 2009). I really love these sets but I wonder how many people would like some wind of change, and put those sets on Craig's list, so people would buy the new "seasonal" theme (one set each year) and start a new collection.

All in all, winter sets being less considered as pieces of collection (please don't agress me lol...). People are sometimes so "fickle"...

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The point is the more choice people have the less chance is they pick the Winter theme = less people interested = less profit....

 

Its that simple.

 

If I would just be LEGO collector and I come collecting LEGO and I see Carnival theme and I see Winter theme for 250$ per set (because its retired) I would more likely pick Carnival theme unless you are extremely in ''love'' with Winter theme....

 

But if Winter theme continues and I buy 1 Winter theme set on retail, I might be more willing to pay premium for old winter sets to increase my Winter collection.

 

Plain logic for me it is.

 

What you mean is brute logic. You simply assume several things you can't (and don't) really know. For example you state...

 

a ) ...that people loving winter themed sets are mostly the same like those people loving carnival themed sets (how do you know?)

b ) ...that people see the carnival theme as a substitution for the winter theme (how do you come to this conclusion - personally I do not really see a fundamental link between the topic "winter" and the topic "carnival", even less because the winter theme has been more about houses whereas the carnival might be more about rides - meaning: those two are divided by more than they share

c ) ...that those people have limited funds they are willing to only spend on ONE of the themes (how do you know?). If all people were constantly retaining their budget for toys in general and specifically Lego, then Lego's sales would not be growing constantly. It could well be people continue collecting the winter theme and also start collecting carnival (IF there was a link between the two groups, which we don't know)

 

I am not saying that you ARE wrong. I only want to comment that you just cannot know. And in this case there is not much logic involved but plain guessing instead - which is not very productive for a forum focusing on lego investing.

 

Why don't you just more generally say that Lego releasing more and more sets from year to year that are out there at the same time leads to lower average prices in the secondary market because people have more choices? This sounds much more logic (but might also be wrong).

 

By the way: The original statement was "If the Carnival Theme replaces the Winter Village theme, do you think winter sets will drop in value ? (people focusing on the new carnival theme)", which is an assumption of people turning away from a theme because of a (quite different) new one. How about new people starting to collect? Catchword: "Extension of target groups".

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I really see no connection between the two.  The Winter theme serves multiple purposes for a traditional company like LEGO.  They like to tie in their Fall and Winter promotions with the Winter themed sets.  I don't see any reason why a popular theme would be stopped with many more possible Winter sets to be created.

 

As for the Carnival theme(or set), it looks like a winner.  There could be some nice additional sets added.  Maybe a Haunted House?  Maybe a Himalayan(AKA Caterpillar ride) that plays Deep Purple's "Smoke on the Water."  LOL

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What you mean is brute logic. You simply assume several things you can't (and don't) really know. For example you state...

 

a ) ...that people loving winter themed sets are mostly the same like those people loving carnival themed sets (how do you know?)

b ) ...that people see the carnival theme as a substitution for the winter theme (how do you come to this conclusion - personally I do not really see a fundamental link between the topic "winter" and the topic "carnival", even less because the winter theme has been more about houses whereas the carnival might be more about rides - meaning: those two are divided by more than they share

c ) ...that those people have limited funds they are willing to only spend on ONE of the themes (how do you know?). If all people were constantly retaining their budget for toys in general and specifically Lego, then Lego's sales would not be growing constantly. It could well be people continue collecting the winter theme and also start collecting carnival (IF there was a link between the two groups, which we don't know)

 

I am not saying that you ARE wrong. I only want to comment that you just cannot know. And in this case there is not much logic involved but plain guessing instead - which is not very productive for a forum focusing on lego investing.

 

Why don't you just more generally say that Lego releasing more and more sets from year to year that are out there at the same time leads to lower average prices in the secondary market because people have more choices? This sounds much more logic (but might also be wrong).

 

By the way: The original statement was "If the Carnival Theme replaces the Winter Village theme, do you think winter sets will drop in value ? (people focusing on the new carnival theme)", which is an assumption of people turning away from a theme because of a (quite different) new one. How about new people starting to collect? Catchword: "Extension of target groups".

 

 

Yes, because there is SURELY 1 person out here/there (if noone else its me) who would rather buy sets on MSRRP than go back and pay inflated prices....

 

Its logical assumption, and we were taught that in Economy classes.

 

Ofcourse there will always be people who come later and prefer WW but there is a strong evidence by logic and marketing analysis that some people (collectors) might decide to rather buy new theme if they like both similarly....

 

 

Its the same with Castle.... If you are not specifically ''in love'' with Kingdoms colors and design and like both retired and new castle army figs the same, there is no good reason to pay premium for retired battle packs....

 

You simply go buy the new ones on discount.

 

This is all based on theoretical assumptions that Carnival theme could or might overtake spot of WW theme....

 

Its a hypothetical argument!

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