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16 minutes ago, marcandre said:

Great post. It's wild right now. I have stuff picked up in the last month that I figured to hold a year. Can flip much of it right now. 

yes. and therein lies the dilemma. Sell now at 50% profit with 1 month holding or wait another 11 months for another 50%. reason im holding is there is nothing left to reinvest in :(  

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3 minutes ago, Bricklectic said:

yes. and therein lies the dilemma. Sell now at 50% profit with 1 month holding or wait another 11 months for another 50%. reason im holding is there is nothing left to reinvest in :(  

Yeah this is where I am at right now. I dumped a lot more inventory during the first few months of the pandemic than put back in. (gladly mind you)

Now I've been slowly reinvesting but I don't feel the resell prices are there yet for my time. (Comic Con sets were definitely worth it though)

Then again, if things get worse in the next week or so and availability suffers while prices rocket, I may have to re-assess.

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I spent a little time looking through Amazon today and am so amazed at the current prices for sets that just retired this year.  Just look at the jump on some sets after Target's recent blowout.

1 hour ago, Bricklectic said:

yes. and therein lies the dilemma. Sell now at 50% profit with 1 month holding or wait another 11 months for another 50%. reason im holding is there is nothing left to reinvest in :(  

Shoot, there's already a ton of sets already at 100, 200 & 300% to flip before we ever get to the 50%.  There's probably a lot of people getting into the game right now thinking this is easy money all the time.  Enjoy this while it lasts.

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Update for 12/2:

Price Range, Sets Available (change from yesterday)

LEGO SAH:

>$100: 21 (+3)

$75 to $100: 20 (+7)

$50 to $75: 14 (-3)

$25 to $50: 30% (+3%)

<$25: 33% (-3%)

 

Amazon ("LEGO", sold by Amazon.com, building sets, Prime eligible, LEGO Brand): 313 (+0) sets, 103 (-1) over $50***

Walmart ("LEGO", retailer Walmart.com, LEGO sets and toys, Deliver to Home eligible): 276 (-5) sets, 75 (-2) over $50***

Target ("LEGO", building sets, shipping available): 333 (-1) sets, 96 (+3) over $50***

*** Note: doesn't include sets on sale <$50 that are RRP >$50

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3 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

I'm just really super confused by this thread.  Can someone walk me thru it using specific sets as examples?

The idea was to see how much variety was available at various stores -- not necessarily what was happening to any one particular set.  So, a two sets might come in stock, and one might go out of stock -- so the count would increase by one.

LEGO SAH has pricing tiers to judge how the more valuable sets may be holding up.  The other three B&M stores I'm tracking is split for $50 and above to weed out the low-end stuff and most of the non-buildable sets that may not be in high-demand during the holidays.

The idea being, the levels are already pretty low, and will they go lower?  If so, the supply/demand would favor the reseller for the next few weeks.

I just find the numbers interesting -- we sometimes tend to focus on particular sets or how things "seem" and I like to put some quantitative numbers on it.  My real job is in engineering so that's what I do.  Drives my wife crazy most of the time :)

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27 minutes ago, TheBrickClique said:

The idea was to see how much variety was available at various stores -- not necessarily what was happening to any one particular set.  So, a two sets might come in stock, and one might go out of stock -- so the count would increase by one.

LEGO SAH has pricing tiers to judge how the more valuable sets may be holding up.  The other three B&M stores I'm tracking is split for $50 and above to weed out the low-end stuff and most of the non-buildable sets that may not be in high-demand during the holidays.

The idea being, the levels are already pretty low, and will they go lower?  If so, the supply/demand would favor the reseller for the next few weeks.

I just find the numbers interesting -- we sometimes tend to focus on particular sets or how things "seem" and I like to put some quantitative numbers on it.  My real job is in engineering so that's what I do.  Drives my wife crazy most of the time :)

Thanks for the clarification.

I'm a risk assessor in my official capacity so spreadsheets are my medium as well.  That said I've had so much blow back from trying to incorporate them into household stuff that I have given up a decade ago.

now I actually have to try and NOT use spreadsheets in the things i do...

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Update for 12/4:

Price Range, Sets Available (change from 12/2, change from 12/1)

LEGO SAH:

>$100: 28 (+7, +10)

$75 to $100: 21 (+1, +8)

$50 to $75: 21 (+7, +4)

$25 to $50: 30% (unchanged, +3%)

<$25: 34% (+1%, -2%)

 

Amazon ("LEGO", sold by Amazon.com, building sets, Prime eligible, LEGO Brand): 289 (-24, -24) sets, 100 (-3, -4) over $50***

Walmart ("LEGO", retailer Walmart.com, LEGO sets and toys, Deliver to Home eligible): 245,  (-31, -6) sets, 69 (-6, -8) over $50***

Target ("LEGO", building sets, shipping available): 339 (+6, +5) sets, 91 (-5, -2) over $50***

*** Note: doesn't include sets on sale <$50 that are RRP >$50

 

Looks like LEGO and Target are regaining stock of sets, while Amazon and Walmart continue to slide.  Perhaps LEGO and Target had more room to recover after being wiped out from Dickens promos and 40% off sales.  We'll see how they hold up.

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Update for 12/4:

Price Range, Sets Available (change from 12/4, change from 12/1)

LEGO SAH:

>$100: 9 (-19, -9)

$75 to $100: 8 (-13, -5)

$50 to $75: 12 (-9, -5)

$25 to $50: 12% (-22%, -19%)

<$25: 20% (-14%, -16%)

 

Amazon ("LEGO", sold by Amazon.com, building sets, Prime eligible, LEGO Brand): 266 (-23, -47) sets, 90 (-10, -14) over $50***

Walmart ("LEGO", retailer Walmart.com, LEGO sets and toys, Deliver to Home eligible): 206,  (-39, -75) sets, 63 (-6, -14) over $50***

Target ("LEGO", building sets, shipping available): 319 (-20, -15) sets, 84 (-7, -9) over $50***

*** Note: doesn't include sets on sale <$50 that are RRP >$50

Everybody is down today.  Target seems to be holding up the best at the moment.

But holy smokes LEGO took a huge plunge in availability.  Now only about 29 different buildable sets remain over $50.  And many of the $25 to $50 sets are not buildable sets -- so that 12% is definitely in the single digits if you eliminate the non-buildable sets.

Here is what LEGO still has in stock over $50 (entering turd status):

> $100: The Upside Down, Rough Terrain Crane, Lamborghini Sian FKP 37, 6x6 Volvo Articulated Hauler, A-wing Starfighter, The Flaming Foundry, Andy Warhol's Marilyn Monroe, Marvel Studios Iron Man, The Beatles

$75 to $100:  Batcave Clayface Invasion, Crocodile Locomotive, Hogwarts Astronomy Tower, Hogwarts Great Hall, Mobile Bat Base, Watchpoint Gibraltar, General Grievous's Starfighter, Lion Dance

$50 to $75: Ship in a Bottle, Monkie Kid's Cloud Jet, 4 Privet Drive, Ducati Panigale V4 R, Hogwarts Whomping Willow, Knights of Ren Transport Ship, Monkie Kid's Cloud Roadster, Action Battle Echo Base Defense, Adventures with Mario Starter Course, Baryonyx Face-Off: The Treasure Hunt, Central Airport, Sandy's Speedboat

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Update for 12/7:

Price Range, Sets Available (change from 12/7, change from 12/1)

LEGO SAH:

>$100: 7 (-2, -11)

$75 to $100: 5 (-3, -8)

$50 to $75: 9 (-3, -8)

$25 to $50: 8% (-4%, -23%), 12 buildable sets

<$25: 20% (0%, -16%), ~29 buildable sets

 

Amazon ("LEGO", sold by Amazon.com, building sets, Prime eligible, LEGO Brand): 244 (-22, -69) sets, 88 (-2, -16) over $50***

Walmart ("LEGO", retailer Walmart.com, LEGO sets and toys, Deliver to Home eligible): 193,  (-13, -88) sets, 59 (-4, -18) over $50***

Target ("LEGO", building sets, shipping available): 328 (+9, -6) sets, 87 (+3, -6) over $50***

*** Note: doesn't include sets on sale <$50 that are RRP >$50

Target is bucking the trend -- adding a few sets over the last couple days.  Everybody else is down.

LEGO is down to 21 unique buildable sets over $50 and 33 total over $25. 

Here is what LEGO still has in stock over $50 (entering turd status):

> $100: Rough Terrain Crane, Lamborghini Sian FKP 37, 6x6 Volvo Articulated Hauler, The Flaming Foundry, Andy Warhol's Marilyn Monroe, Marvel Studios Iron Man, The Beatles

New OOS: A-Wing Starfighter, The Upside Down

$75 to $100:  Crocodile Locomotive, Hogwarts Astronomy Tower, Mobile Bat Base, Watchpoint Gibraltar, General Grievous's Starfighter

New OOS: Batcave Clayface Invasion, Hogwarts Great Hall, Lion Dance

$50 to $75: Ship in a Bottle, Monkie Kid's Cloud Jet, 4 Privet Drive, Ducati Panigale V4 R, Hogwarts Whomping Willow, Knights of Ren Transport Ship, Monkie Kid's Cloud Roadster, Central Airport, Sandy's Speedboat

New OOS: Hogwarts Whomping Willow, Action Battle Echo Base Defense, Adventures with Mario Starter Course, Baryonyx Face-Off: The Treasure Hunt

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Update for 12/9:

Price Range, Sets Available (change from 12/9, change from 12/1)

LEGO SAH:

>$100: 6 (-1, -12)

$75 to $100: 5 (0, -8)

$50 to $75: 8 (-1, -9)

$25 to $50: 7% (-1%, -24%)

<$25: 19% (-1%, -17%)

 

Amazon ("LEGO", sold by Amazon.com, building sets, Prime eligible, LEGO Brand): 172 (-72, -141) sets, 64 (-24, -40) over $50***

Walmart ("LEGO", retailer Walmart.com, LEGO sets and toys, Deliver to Home eligible): 266,  (+73, -15) sets, 62 (+3, -15) over $50***

Target ("LEGO", building sets, shipping available): 271 (-57, -63) sets, 62 (-25, -31) over $50***

*** Note: doesn't include sets on sale <$50 that are RRP >$50

Walmart had a resurgence in the <$50 sets.

All three retailers are in the same range for >$50 sets now.  But Amazon and Target were hit hard in the <$50 sets.

LEGO is down to 19 unique buildable sets over $50

Here is what LEGO still has in stock over $50 (entering turd status):

> $100: Rough Terrain Crane, Lamborghini Sian FKP 37, 6x6 Volvo Articulated Hauler, The Flaming Foundry, Andy Warhol's Marilyn Monroe, Marvel Studios Iron Man

New OOS: The Beatles

$75 to $100:  Crocodile Locomotive, Hogwarts Astronomy Tower, Skull Sorcerer's Dungeons, Mobile Bat Base, General Grievous's Starfighter

New OOS: Watchpoint Gibraltar

New In Stock: Skull Sorcerer's Dungeons

$50 to $75: Monkie Kid's Cloud Jet, 4 Privet Drive, Ducati Panigale V4 R, Knights of Ren Transport Ship, Monkie Kid's Cloud Roadster, Adventures with Mario Starter Course, Central Airport, Sandy's Speedboat

New OOS: Ship in a Bottle

New In Stock: Adventures with Mario Starter Course

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