Seems like a good time to evaluate everyone´s best and worst investment decisions of the year. Please comment with your best and worst decision or purchase (max 2 per person).

My best move was to go in hard on Dragon Sanctuaries. Even at RRP, they have brought excellent ROI and opened my eyes to a previously unknown theme. Runner up was 41122 Adventure Treehouse - great little earner at Xmas time when bought cheap. Girlie themes all the way in 2017.

My worst move is a tie between over investing in IST 75094s at too high a buy-in and missing out on the TRU flash sale with 70323 Jestro´s Lair at 27 euros. That set is going for 100 right now and looks set to be a winner in the medium term once the theme is done.

Edited December 26, 20178 yr by Val-E

My winner is 41171 - Emily Jones & the Baby Wind Dragon. My average buy was under $3 from KMart with points and coupons, clearing them out over $40. Had over 100, down to 27

 

My loser was 75096 - Sith Infiltrator. Was expecting more because it was a TRU exclusive, and the Watto figure. Got my money back plus a little holding fee, but the ship just has no holding power.

 

I don't predict much for 75099 - Rey's Speeder. have a bunch from Walmart at 70% off. We shall see what comes of it though.

 

 

I just started Lego Investing but I bought the Ultra Stealth Raider at like 82.26 which I know realize was kinda dumb but better than $100. I picked up all three sets from the Dead men tell no tales movie and I expect great rewards though. 

13 minutes ago, brickvoyeur said:

My winner is 41171 - Emily Jones & the Baby Wind Dragon. My average buy was under $3 from KMart with points and coupons, clearing them out over $40. Had over 100, down to 27

 

My loser was 75096 - Sith Infiltrator. Was expecting more because it was a TRU exclusive, and the Watto figure. Got my money back plus a little holding fee, but the ship just has no holding power.

 

I don't predict much for 75099 - Rey's Speeder. have a bunch from Walmart at 70% off. We shall see what comes of it though.

 

 

I have a feeling Star Wars sets will appear a lot in the mistakes list. What with the 75150 debacle, the Falcon, Vader and Rey buildable remakes.

On the other hand, those who stood in line for a signed UCS Falcon are probably happy with that and wish they had got more.

Edited December 26, 20178 yr by Val-E

Best: 3 for 2 on 2017 Lego MInecraft (Ice Spikes, Witch Hut and Jungle Temple). Bought loads last month. Looking very promising.  

Worst: 3 for 2 on Ninjago LIghthouse Seige. Buy in price was £30 and sold for £40 in May. Now approaching £100. Missed a bucket load of other Ninjago stuff at very good discount. I knew the movie was coming and never gave them consideration. Very short-sighted. 

Edited December 26, 20178 yr by Villager Chris

Just now, Villager Chris said:

Best: 3 for 2 on Lego MInecraft (Ice Spikes, Witch Hut and Jungle Temple). Bought loads last month. Looking very promising.  

Worst: 3 for 2 on Ninjago LIghthouse Seige. Buy in price was £30 and sold for £40 in May. Now approaching £100. Missed a bucket load of other Ninjago stuff at very good discount. I knew the movie was coming and never gave them consideration. Very short-sighted. 

who is buying Lighthouse for 100 GBP..??? That is insane.. 

1 minute ago, crayxlp said:

who is buying Lighthouse for 100 GBP..??? That is insane.. 

Kids! 

1 minute ago, Villager Chris said:

Kids! 

.. like from theirs pocket money.. ?

6 minutes ago, crayxlp said:

.. like from theirs pocket money.. ?

Parents of kids. I've shifted more Ninjago than Star Wars in the Xmas run up, and for stronger prices. Sorry, getting off topic, 

Edited December 26, 20178 yr by Villager Chris

Best: £300 BNISB Green Grocer purchase.

Worst: Buying 6 75150s, 6 75096s, and 2 75140s in February from LEGO Shop at Home at 50% off. I originally had the intention of splitting them, rather than investing, but this avenue closed off due to the sheer magnitude of the oversupply. I still have all of them. 75150 finally seems to be crawling upwards after being stuck at £50 for an age.

Just now, Villager Chris said:

Parents of kids. I've shifted more Ninjago than Star Wars in the Xmas run up, and for stronger prices. 

how do you that.. I have here complete Ninjago sets (like waves) including all the special polybags and ppl here just dont buy it at cca 70 % off the RRP.. on the other hand, most of the toy chains just got crazy in December offering lots of LEGO at 35-45 % discount ..

Both good and bad - the amount I spent and the amount I earned.

Importing 99c store dimensions into the UK.  Portal 2 in particular.  
Deciding that Lego are better at making sets for girls, right now. This could be more the change in toys and interactive/video games and the whole role-play vs. linear play thing.  But pink sets have been killing it for me.   

Not following my gut on sets, not going all in sets that were obvious winners.  This game isn’t about diversification, it’s about loading up on the right sets. I still find it hard to buy 50 of one set rather than 2 or 3 of 20 sets.  Even though when I do that it pays off.  

 

3 minutes ago, feed said:

Importing 99c store dimensions into the UK.  Portal 2 in particular.  
Deciding that Lego are better at making sets for girls, right now. This could be more the change in toys and interactive/video games and the whole role-play vs. linear play thing.  But pink sets have been killing it for me.   

Not following my gut on sets, not going all in sets that were obvious winners.  This game isn’t about diversification, it’s about loading up on the right sets. I still find it hard to buy 50 of one set rather than 2 or 3 of 20 sets.  Even though when I do that it pays off.  

 

some of the most respectable ppl on this site would vote just 3 months back, that the "right set" in your area would be Friends 41122 Adventure Tree House.. and now its getting some kind of a "twin" .. are you so sure about your strategy.. ? Its like the proverb never put the eggs into one nest.. I like diversification (to certain level - like not buying 50x the same set and nothing else)

16 minutes ago, crayxlp said:

some of the most respectable ppl on this site would vote just 3 months back, that the "right set" in your area would be Friends 41122 Adventure Tree House.. and now its getting some kind of a "twin" .. are you so sure about your strategy.. ? Its like the proverb never put the eggs into one nest.. I like diversification (to certain level - like not buying 50x the same set and nothing else)

ATH is a Xmas flip. No point in keeping it long term.

2 minutes ago, Val-E said:

ATH is a Xmas flip. No point in keeping it long term.

was that your position before summer 2017... ?

20 minutes ago, crayxlp said:

some of the most respectable ppl on this site would vote just 3 months back, that the "right set" in your area would be Friends 41122 Adventure Tree House.. and now its getting some kind of a "twin" .. are you so sure about your strategy.. ? Its like the proverb never put the eggs into one nest.. I like diversification (to certain level - like not buying 50x the same set and nothing else)

For this year buying only Scooby or Jurassic world in 2016, would have been better than pretty much any other play. Other individual sets may have better margins, but don’t move in the same volume.     It’s perhaps been a little less obvious this year, but the same applies, there are some sets that will move in volume at decent margins effortlessly and having fewer sets as inventory is far easier to manage.   

If I pick a bad set and need to liquidate unwinding 50 at market price is an easier job than moving 1’s or 2’s and I accept that I’m going to buy a bad set from time to time, but spending more time unloading these to minimise loses than the time I spend on winners, is dumb.  
 

11 minutes ago, crayxlp said:

was that your position before summer 2017... ?

My position 1 month ago was that it was a turd and that I´d be lucky to break even. Then Xmas hurricane came and parents needed one for little Timetta.Next year she will want Grand Hotel or Riding Stables.

Edited December 26, 20178 yr by Val-E

11 minutes ago, feed said:

For this year buying only Scooby or Jurassic world in 2016, would have been better than pretty much any other play. Other individual sets may have better margins, but don’t move in the same volume.     It’s perhaps been a little less obvious this year, but the same applies, there are some sets that will move in volume at decent margins effortlessly and having fewer sets as inventory is far easier to manage.   

If I pick a bad set and need to liquidate unwinding 50 at market price is an easier job than moving 1’s or 2’s and I accept that I’m going to buy a bad set from time to time, but spending more time unloading these to minimise loses than the time I spend on winners, is dumb.  
 

Problem is we aren´t always sure which sets in a theme will do well so we cover base. Getingt it wrong and going in hard on the duff sets is an expensive mistake.

3 minutes ago, Val-E said:

My position 1 month ago was that it was a turd and that I´d be lucky to break even. Then Xmas hurricane came and parents needed one for little Timetta.Next year she will want Grand Hotel or Riding Stables.

I wasnt trying to diminish your market skills or anything like that.. I aimed just to prove kind of exactly what you said. the market is continously developing and what seemed valid at some point in time - could be altogether changed next week or month. Therefore I still see some reasonable kind of diversification as a good thing and a safe net.

12 minutes ago, crayxlp said:

I wasnt trying to diminish your market skills or anything like that.. I aimed just to prove kind of exactly what you said. the market is continously developing and what seemed valid at some point in time - could be altogether changed next week or month. Therefore I still see some reasonable kind of diversification as a good thing and a safe net.

As @feed mentions, the most profitable strategy is to go in deep on one or two sets - any of the fantasy investment leagues people have run prove that.

The problem is if you don´t pick the right set and it is not always easy to tell. Stuff like 75919 IR are no brainers but who would have bet on Emily Jones Wind Dragon being the best ROI Elves set or indeed that a Bionicle would be the best performing set of the year?

There is also a time to buy and a time to sell. A lot of us make the mistake of thinking appreciation will always stay constant but then the remake comes or market tastes change. Diversification doesn´t help the chronic hoarders who can´t bear to sell as they will feel they can´t if they don´t have enough of that set.

Edited December 26, 20178 yr by Val-E

interesting.. has anyone (in their wild fantasies) tried to figure out what might be the percentage of regular customers (parents getting gifts for their children, AFOLs building it for their pleasure) compared to the investors / hoarders etc.. ? Is it like 50:50 or way different?

Edited December 26, 20178 yr by crayxlp
grammar

Looking back at my purchases of 2017, the first thing I notice is that I got better discounts in 2017 than in 2016. That's the experience kicking in  

The main disappointment is the Star Wars theme, despite the focus on it because of the movies and advertisement. Overproduction by TLG and too many Lego resellers trying to get a crumb of the pie are the main causes there. So my under performing sets come from this theme. Sith Infiltrator, Resistance Troop Transporter... You all know the sets.

The best sales I had this year were the Scooby Doo sets of 2016. Otherwise my sales-list of 2017 is rather pathetic I'm afraid. At least when comparing with the real pros here on this forum.   I hope that the retired Elves dragons sets will do well in 2018. Remains to be see whether the Dragon Sanctuary was merely a one hit wonder, or otherwise leading the way for other Elves dragon sets... Time will tell.  

Investment scores: 
Clone Turbo Tanks for 45.00 off at Walmart last spring.  Also found 3 for 40.00.

Investment wins:  Jurassic World..  I overbought before these went completely EOL... but, this year made up for it as they consistently moved.  I have hardly any left. Death Star Final Duel.

Investment Losers:  Birds, Sith Infiltrator (should have known better), Imperial Shuttle Transport has had slower than expected growth.

Winners: Jokerland at 65

Losers: Kylo Ren 75104 at 65 when will this set die

Winners - I went in pretty big on Disney Ariel undersea palace and friends livi pop star --- huge winners especially with the buy in. 

Losers - Pet Shop...expected a lot more but I'll hang onto for maybe next year. 

Edited December 26, 20178 yr by Leopard