UCS Millennium Falcon hits the $4000 mark in US

[Brickson]

Time will tell guys. Check back in 2 years  

I don't have any idea why you wouldn't have sold for 6K and just bought a new one for 4K. Safe bet to me. . .

Mine is mint condition from a LEGO Ambassador. I can trust the condition, and legitimacy of the contents. I don't have that many opportunities to feel that comfortable with a UCS MF (or Taj) purchase up here in Canada.

^ I have to disagree. If you are purely in this for the money, then that 6K could have been put into a much better investment. Heck, I would feel better with 6K in the stock market than the MF at this point. If it is re-released, and the new one is better (Big if, I know) then I can see the price falling, and falling hard. Also you have to consider ho much higher will it go, and at what pace.

Which would you rather have:

1. 1 UCS Millennium Falcon or 28 X-Wings?
2. 1 UCS Millennium Falcon or 22 Ewok Villages?
3. 1 UCS Millennium Falcon or 35+ Modular Buildings?
4. ...

I don't see how that is even close.

 

Two years from now any of the three examples will have easily doubled in value. Will your Falcon be over $12,000 at that point?

 

Respectfully disagree. 

22 ewok villages requiring a lot of space, more work selling to ~22 people, with a lot more hoarding than 10179, and unknown future profits (everything previously mentioned + ewoks). Versus 1 box selling to only 1 person, far more rare, far more awesome, and known APR/increasing value. I realized this when mine sold so quickly. There's more rich people and people sitting on cash than you think, that will pay for top dollar for luxury items rather than a bunch of run of the mill items.

Edited June 29, 2015 by Brickson

[redghostx]

Playing reverse devils advocate, you are doing it wrong if you don't have your transaction time down to a science to process 28 X-Wings. I always laugh when I see this because really after the first one, you know exactly the size and weight and it should all be automatic. It takes just a couple of seconds to pack and generate a label.

Pack them when you receive them and be done with it.

 

On topic - IF you have $6,000(US) to spend on Lego for investing, one can reasonably assume that you have a closet to fit 30 $200 sets in.

 

P.S. - Alpine, I preferred your old avatar. That is all.

[Brickson]

On topic - IF you have $6,000(US) to spend on Lego for investing, one can reasonably assume that you have a closet to fit 30 $200 sets in.

But... my closet is already filled with 30 $200 sets and I don't have 2 closets  If I want to invest more than 6K, it's reasonable to assume I want to be as lean as possible.

[meowingthings]

As I see it, If you could have sold it for $6000 then your cost is now $6000 for the set. It doesn't matter what you initially paid your cost changed when you chose the set over a guaranteed $6k in cash.

[Grolim]

As I see it, If you could have sold it for $6000 then your cost is now $6000 for the set. It doesn't matter what you initially paid your cost changed when you chose the set over a guaranteed $6k in cash.

Yeah that's correct, if calculating returns from today onward.  If calculating returns from initial investment it's still purchase price and purchase time that count.

[jaisonline]

 

 

 

As I see it, If you could have sold it for $6000 then your cost is now $6000 for the set. It doesn't matter what you initially paid your cost changed when you chose the set over a guaranteed $6k in cash.

not according to the IRS   nor basic accounting,  the cost is still the purchase price.  However, I totally understand your thought / reasoning.

[KShine]

Whenever someone offers me $6,000 for my $4,000 - I generally see that as acceptable.

[jaisonline]

amen.

 

Whenever someone offers me $6,000 for my $4,000 - I generally see that as acceptable.

[Brickson]

Am I the only guy here trying to double or triple up? Just because we're working with 1 set rather than 10, the rules change?

Is there not people around here holding dozens of R2-D2's even though it has appreciated more than 150%? (6000/4000 = 150%)

[jaisonline]

you are not wrong and not the only one. 

different investment strokes for different investing folks. however, sometimes it pays to hold onto 1 set instead of 10 or longer than originally desired.

think about all the folks who unloaded MISB sets like Grand Carousals, The Zombies, 10179s and Taj Mahal too early even at 300% profit.  There are very few grand slams lately with all the resellers and people keeping sets sealed.  so when i feel there is a diamond in the rough. i hold onto it as long as possible (or when i see growth flat). additionally, it's icing on the cake when there's (usually )less BS when selling fewer sets while attaining the same (or close to) profit goal. 

some folks just prob feel that getting 50% more than market value is an exceptional deal when you can turn around and buy another one for less cash. basically, you are making money for essentially trading in one 10179 for another 10179 (granted the box might not be flawless as the prev one)

 

Am I the only guy here trying to double or triple up? Just because we're working with 1 set rather than 10, the rules change?

Is there not people around here holding dozens of R2-D2's even though it has appreciated more than 150%? (6000/4000 = 150%)

 

 

[gregpj]

you are not wrong and not the only one. 

different investment strokes for different investing folks. however, sometimes it pays to hold onto 1 set instead of 10 or longer than originally desired.

think about all the folks who unloaded MISB sets like Grand Carousals, The Zombies, 10179s and Taj Mahal too early even at 300% profit.  There are very few grand slams lately with all the resellers and people keeping sets sealed.  so when i feel there is a diamond in the rough. i hold onto it as long as possible (or when i see growth flat). additionally, it's icing on the cake when there's (usually )less BS when selling fewer sets while attaining the same (or close to) profit goal. 

some folks just prob feel that getting 50% more than market value is an exceptional deal when you can turn around and buy another one for less cash. basically, you are making money for essentially trading in one 10179 for another 10179 (granted the box might not be flawless as the prev one)

 

 

 

That's in the US... The cheapest one currently for sale in Canada is $5200 on bricklink. Add the cost of shipping that sucker with proper insurance and tracking ($100) and we're at 5300. On eBay, the cheapest one currently for sale that lists shipping to Canada is $7k+... and then tax on top of that when it crosses the border.

Brickson's 6k was on Amazon - what would the fees have been? 15% equals $900 in fees... $5100 < $5300.

I don't know when this all transpired, but it doesn't seem that long ago which means perhaps the "cheapest" one available could have turned him a profit, but it would have been small and had significant risk.

[Brickson]

you are not wrong and not the only one. 

different investment strokes for different investing folks. however, sometimes it pays to hold onto 1 set instead of 10 or longer than originally desired.

think about all the folks who unloaded MISB sets like Grand Carousals, The Zombies, 10179s and Taj Mahal too early even at 300% profit.  There are very few grand slams lately with all the resellers and people keeping sets sealed.  so when i feel there is a diamond in the rough. i hold onto it as long as possible (or when i see growth flat). additionally, it's icing on the cake when there's (usually )less BS when selling fewer sets while attaining the same (or close to) profit goal. 

That's good to know.

 

some folks just prob feel that getting 50% more than market value is an exceptional deal when you can turn around and buy another one for less cash. basically, you are making money for essentially trading in one 10179 for another 10179 (granted the box might not be flawless as the prev one)

That does make sense, if I could play it like that.

Greg is right though, flipping for a cheaper set would have been significantly risky for the profit range, IMHO. It was 6K on Amazon US, $900 fees. $5100 USD. I could do that, pick one up for $3-4k (on Amazon if I wait and hope, or through brickclassified if I go down to US). I'd make an extra 1 grand profit or so, a bit less than 20% of the total cost. But with it on the rise, the movie coming out, it doesn't seem like a very good play to me. Even if it was the 2K (50% profit) people thought. Unless I just sell it and leave it at that, which I would be happy with, but why call the big blind with pocket aces pre-flop? I gotta bet on a good hand.

[jaisonline]

The latest price guide update is still running (actually has a while to go).  I always pick a few sets to go through and look at the data manually and run it ahead of time to see how the crawlers did.   The price guide update will include all of May as well as June listings up to June 23rd.  This will at least catch us up and get some of you a little more current than we were.  I will update the other days next week sometime when the rest of June is available.

Anyhow, the #10179 actually it the $4,000 mark last month and is still holding for June as well.  I guess this could be because the latest version of the the Falcon is not a UCS killer.  I also see that the SSD is creeping closer to the $800 mark. A few of the other sets like Town Hall, Haunted House, R2-D2 have not changed much.  Maybe its summer time and as fall comes around, we will see more action on those. Hard to tell right now.   

It will be interesting to see if the MF will be able to stay at this level or continue to go up as the movie release nears.

 

based on your data analysis, what are the other MISB sets that have a crack at approaching $4k w/in 2 years (if any) assuming no refreshes?

[Jeff Mack]

Here are the Top 5 sets

Ultimate Collector's Millennium Falcon      $4074.40
Taj Mahal     $2865.00
Grand Carousel   $ 2520.00
Statue of Liberty   $2438.20
Eiffel Tower   $1943.00

[KShine]

Am I the only guy here trying to double or triple up? Just because we're working with 1 set rather than 10, the rules change?

Is there not people around here holding dozens of R2-D2's even though it has appreciated more than 150%? (6000/4000 = 150%)

We are talking about accepting an offer from someone who is willing to pay 6k for a set that can be purchased for 4k.

If your logic sees this as an unacceptable offer, what could ever convince you to sell?

[Brickson]

We are talking about accepting an offer from someone who is willing to pay 6k for a set that can be purchased for 4k.

If your logic sees this as an unacceptable offer, what could ever convince you to sell?

10-15K, or if I can get a 2nd one (from a trustable source) for 4K first, THEN sell one for 6K. But flipping my only one, in Canada where it's not so easy to come by, when I believe it will continue to rise, nah.

Edited June 30, 2015 by Brickson

[chezzzuk]

10-15K, or if I can get a 2nd one (from a trustable source) for 4K first, THEN sell one for 6K. But flipping my only one, in Canada where it's not so easy to come by, when I believe it will continue to rise, nah.

If you strongly believe this set will be worth 10k to 15k in the near future, I would be stocking up some more at 4k-5k each if I were you.

[Brickson]

I will, within reason, if opportunity presents itself. I need the source to be extremely reliable for that kind of money. I don't have the money at the moment anyway. I'm trying to sell off some of these annoying small sets first.

[Follows Closely]

I will, within reason, if opportunity presents itself. I need the source to be extremely reliable for that kind of money. I don't have the money at the moment anyway. I'm trying to sell off some of these annoying small sets first.

I think @chezzzuk was joking.

[bryn]

I agree with Brickson, if I had a 100% genuine, mint 10179 and I didnt need the money then I would keep it. Until the value became relevant.

Probably leave it to someone in my will.

[lego rules]

While I don't believe Lego is in a bubble, I believe some sets like this one might be entering bubble territory.

Lego just needs to make a few pieces that are rare but easy to make and the secondary used prices would drop.  When the price disparity between used and new  is large enough, most people will buy used instead of new which would drop new prices as well.

Although I don't believe Lego will ever release a MF as big as the 10179, it is possible.  That would most likely significantly effect prices.

So for me personally, I manage my risk by trying to limit it.  I would rather risk buying $4000 worth of modulars rather than 1 falcon.

 

That's just me and my 2c

[Brickson]

While I don't believe Lego is in a bubble, I believe some sets like this one might be entering bubble territory.

Lego just needs to make a few pieces that are rare but easy to make and the secondary used prices would drop.  When the price disparity between used and new  is large enough, most people will buy used instead of new which would drop new prices as well.

Although I don't believe Lego will ever release a MF as big as the 10179, it is possible.  That would most likely significantly effect prices.

So for me personally, I manage my risk by trying to limit it.  I would rather risk buying $4000 worth of modulars rather than 1 falcon.

 

That's just me and my 2c

That makes sense too. There will surely be some of that no matter what. I'm hoping it rides through it, haha. Everyone's welcome to their 2c!

At least buying 4K of modulars, it's less risky because it's highly unlikely they would fall below MSRP even if there was some bubble issues. You'd have to be betting against that with 10179, because there's surely a lot of room for popping.

[jay4e]

While I don't believe Lego is in a bubble, I believe some sets like this one might be entering bubble territory.

Lego just needs to make a few pieces that are rare but easy to make and the secondary used prices would drop.  When the price disparity between used and new  is large enough, most people will buy used instead of new which would drop new prices as well.

Although I don't believe Lego will ever release a MF as big as the 10179, it is possible.  That would most likely significantly effect prices.

So for me personally, I manage my risk by trying to limit it.  I would rather risk buying $4000 worth of modulars rather than 1 falcon.

 

That's just me and my 2c

I suspect LEGO looks at these kinds of after market sales and has regular debates about if its worth it to release a new version.  The new MF is inching its way closer to UCS territory, and the Helicarrier has shown that LEGO is not afraid of the big budget sets.  I suspect a UCS MF is inevitable, however I  would not expect it to be quite as elaborate.  I can see them replacing DS with a big high dollar MF though, and it getting close enough for many collectors.

[stephen_rockefeller]

No lego set will EVER reach the 10 grand mark, that is all.

[exciter1]

No lego set will EVER reach the 10 grand mark, that is all.

All right, hmm what'd I say, tell me what'd I say?