The Federal Lego Trade Commission

Lol. Lego reselling is hardly a registered security.

Yes, otherwise it would not be speculation anymore but trading with pre-knowledge. Which is forbidden.

I don't mean anything in terms of collusion or insider trading, I refer to the following statement:

 

People in general like to be right and remember the one time they won as opposed to the dozens of times they lost.  I can speculate that 30 sets will retire in the next 6 months and I only have to get 1 right to look intelligent as that is the one that tends to get remembered.

I don't mean anything in terms of collusion or insider trading, I refer to the following statement:

 

People in general like to be right and remember the one time they won as opposed to the dozens of times they lost.  I can speculate that 30 sets will retire in the next 6 months and I only have to get 1 right to look intelligent as that is the one that tends to get remembered.

 

Yes, that is true.

 

That is mostly what we have. Like we speculate set X will do good after retirement we also speculate which set will retire first. Surprise retirements can be very lucrative (TH). So people tend to look for the next TH. I think that is natural. And with the so called "Chaos" it will become even more lucrative to pick and hoard the right sets. 

And of course, you observations are good ones.  I can make a counter argument that the next few modulars will do just as well as GG.  First, the Lego Movie was a game-changer.  It brought in TONS of new customers. Best evidence of this is Lego's record year + huge expansion into new sets in 2015.  This shows that the overall market is growing, quite substantially.   

 

In this environment, we'll see a new influx of AFOL, many (most!) of which will find the modulars and get the bug. Supply of pre-PS modulars is fixed; they're won't be anymore.  Demand is growing.  A repeat of GG-like returns is possible.  There may a bit of lag in achieving these results, given that a greater proportion of FB/GE was bought be resellers, but I still don't think the overall market share of resellers in these sets is more than 10-20% of the total.

 

 It's quite possible we'll look back in a few years, and realize that the first 6-8 modulars behaved fairly similarly, due to growth of the AFOL market.  Just an alternate opinion, here, nothing more.  Regardless, I still think the now-retired modulars are among the best (and safest) bets in this whole game.

 

I was going to argue at first but then realized that you (seemingly) are essentially comparing CAGR per modular starting on it's EOL/Sold Out date.  This is valuable thinking, despite my doubt that it will actually happen.

 

What certainly(!) will NOT happen is FB/GE/PS/PC etc. doing "just as well as GG" when directly compared to it as an "in at MSRP" investment at any given moment, or in the long run. All that additional demand will apply nearly as much to CC/GG/MS as it does to the others, and the supply on those is so low in comparison that the value should always be at a premium, and the later sets should NEVER catch up. I think you basically would agree, but I just wanted to put it in a different perspective for some of the newer audience who may not be fully informed.

I was going to argue at first but then realized that you (seemingly) are essentially comparing CAGR per modular starting on it's EOL/Sold Out date. This is valuable thinking, despite my doubt that it will actually happen.

What certainly(!) will NOT happen is FB/GE/PS/PC etc. doing "just as well as GG" when directly compared to it as an "in at MSRP" investment at any given moment, or in the long run. All that additional demand will apply nearly as much to CC/GG/MS as it does to the others, and the supply on those is so low in comparison that the value should always be at a premium, and the later sets should NEVER catch up. I think you basically would agree, but I just wanted to put it in a different perspective for some of the newer audience who may not be fully informed.

100% correct. Agree completely. CC, MS, and GG may indeed skyrocket.

I'm looking for the Palace Cinema thread, has anyone seen it lately??

I'm looking for the Palace Cinema thread, has anyone seen it lately??

I think if we had better mods who would do there job it could be found.....

I think if we had better mods who would do there job it could be found.....

Touche' sir.

The Federal Lego Trade Commission

I'm not just the president , but I'm also a client...

Touche' sir.

 

Did you delete that post before you quoted it?

PS and ToO have definitely been easier to acquire recently when Amazon gets them.  PC seems to be gone within 5 minutes of an alert in the last week.

PS and ToO have definitely been easier to acquire recently when Amazon gets them.  PC seems to be gone within 5 minutes of an alert in the last week.

 

Maybe the horde wearies of ToO and PS... haven't you heard, PC is the latest TH.

Wrong thread buy been reading, I bought my last TH Oct 28th from amazon

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Brickpicker mobile app

Maybe the horde wearies of ToO and PS... haven't you heard, PC is the latest TH.

I read this and understood exactly what it meant without even having to think about it.  I've either reached a new level of Brickpicker Zen or I've spent way too much time here over the last year . . .

For sure there is alot of action going on in this topic about the Palace Cinema. Instead in the Pet Shop topic you can hear the crickets.

I guess because PS has been out for a while, everyone has had a chance to stock up on it.

PC is fresher, and I reckon the new precedent set by the Town Hall has the hoard worried. They gotta get their quota of sets

That's what I reckon

HOLY %@+$ PC IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE. CAN WE MOVE ON. csnt wait to read in a year... Man I bought a billion pc. I gotta return etc etc.

I pray for the day their is zero returns on lego.

Maybe this should be in complaint thread. Haha.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Brickpicker mobile app

1 PC left in stock at collishop

0 PS left in stock at collishop

 

Based on known patterns, it will come back in stock.

But based on cryptic and not so cryptic remarks made by Ed... are we sure of it?

 

Bottom line. Discussing EOL of items is futile, buying an MBS as investment where you can have 5-15

There is no way PC is retiring soon. "At least not before Halloween or before Episode 7 movie comes out.

HOLY %@+$ PC IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE. CAN WE MOVE ON. csnt wait to read in a year... Man I bought a billion pc. I gotta return etc etc.

I pray for the day their is zero returns on lego.

Maybe this should be in complaint thread. Haha.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Brickpicker mobile app

I cant help but feel this is my fault.  back on page 13 I started freaking out that the PC was getting the Town Hall treatment because of some signs we saw.  It dissapearing on Amazon, Target, Walmart and TRU.coms.  Also after the initial Holiday blitz, everything came back in stock at Lego stores around the country EXCEPT Palace Cinema (last known code was R4 24 which was pretty scary in my mind considering that was 30+ weeks since it was produced from the Mexican factory for the United States.  Also I actually still have not seen it at my Lego store, but others may have as well.)  It wasn't until my Palace Cinema finally shipped to me this week actually with R5 03 codes that I realized it wasn't getting the TH treatment.

 

Apologies to everyone that I started this mess.  Ill be more vigilant in the future.

 

p.s. I also realize that others had posted about the newer seal code before I got my PC I didn't mean to make it seem like I didn't believe anyone's reports on new seal codes.

Edited February 20, 201510 yr by vexxet

I cant help but feel this is my fault.  back on page 13 I started freaking out that the PC was getting the Town Hall treatment because of some signs we saw.  It dissapearing on Amazon, Target, Walmart and TRU.coms.  Also after the initial Holiday blitz, everything came back in stock at Lego stores around the country EXCEPT Palace Cinema (last known code was R4 24 which was pretty scary in my mind considering that was 30+ weeks since it was produced from the Mexican factory for the United States.  Also I actually still have not seen it at my Lego store, but others may have as well.)  It wasn't until my Palace Cinema finally shipped to me this week actually with R5 03 codes that I realized it wasn't getting the TH treatment.

 

Apologies to everyone that I started this mess.  Ill be more vigilant in the future.

 

p.s. I also realize that others had posted about the newer seal code before I got my PC I didn't mean to make it seem like I didn't believe anyone's reports on new seal codes.

 

It's okay, just try to be more careful next time. This is quite a mess you started, but thanks for posting and getting everything back on track.

You see... I cannot even go to sleep for a couple of hours for this topic to derail back to where it was a few days ago.

I cant help but feel this is my fault.  back on page 13 I started freaking out that the PC was getting the Town Hall treatment because of some signs we saw.  It dissapearing on Amazon, Target, Walmart and TRU.coms.  Also after the initial Holiday blitz, everything came back in stock at Lego stores around the country EXCEPT Palace Cinema (last known code was R4 24 which was pretty scary in my mind considering that was 30+ weeks since it was produced from the Mexican factory for the United States.  Also I actually still have not seen it at my Lego store, but others may have as well.)  It wasn't until my Palace Cinema finally shipped to me this week actually with R5 03 codes that I realized it wasn't getting the TH treatment.

 

Apologies to everyone that I started this mess.  Ill be more vigilant in the future.

 

p.s. I also realize that others had posted about the newer seal code before I got my PC I didn't mean to make it seem like I didn't believe anyone's reports on new seal codes.

 

I feel like I can return to my normal routine now!

 

So...what else can we panic speculate on?

 

In all seriousness, I'm glad I haven't caved and made a few orders of PC. Yes, an additional 5% in VIP + the promo (Hero Factory, if still in stock, I think for ******.A.?) is not worth it if the set is truly going EOL, but it is worth it if you plan to make a half dozen orders in that double VIP period to add to your stockpile. Steady as she goes - stay the course!

I got my PC(s) with 31% off 6 months ago, so I really don't care if it is a good timing to get some now, or not... -I already have the number of sets I planned to get-

 

Don't panic and stick to your plans. Buy when you see a deal in sets you want to invest in. All sets will retire sooner or later. It'll avoid you some panic and enjoy seeing people running around while you have a cocktail.

 

Edited February 20, 201510 yr by biniou

Well there are zero pc in Ireland today.

I cant help but feel this is my fault.  back on page 13 I started freaking out that the PC was getting the Town Hall treatment because of some signs we saw.  It dissapearing on Amazon, Target, Walmart and TRU.coms.  Also after the initial Holiday blitz, everything came back in stock at Lego stores around the country EXCEPT Palace Cinema (last known code was R4 24 which was pretty scary in my mind considering that was 30+ weeks since it was produced from the Mexican factory for the United States.  Also I actually still have not seen it at my Lego store, but others may have as well.)  It wasn't until my Palace Cinema finally shipped to me this week actually with R5 03 codes that I realized it wasn't getting the TH treatment.

 

Apologies to everyone that I started this mess.  Ill be more vigilant in the future.

 

p.s. I also realize that others had posted about the newer seal code before I got my PC I didn't mean to make it seem like I didn't believe anyone's reports on new seal codes.

 

Even if PC would pull of another TH like early retirement, it would be several months from now until we'll get see the first signs anyway.

Regardless, I don't think it's wrong to post observations that could indicate an early retirement, even if they turn out to be wrong. It's rather that it develops some momentum and people start believing in it without even looking at the facts.