Well, the data I used are according to Brickset's US date, since that's where I am in. I think Brickset used LEGO Shop at Home availability, not local. Of course, only pulling all the local info from all the BPers around the world can this be more accurate.

 

On the other hand, I did notice Brickset dates interesting. Of course they don't account for the unavailability during the period and update the end date according to the LAST available date.

the only reason why i remember so vividly is because I remember trying to wait til double points in October to buy a bunch more haunted houses and they were sold out around the beginning of September.  Town Hall was gone before that.

the only reason why i remember so vividly is because I remember trying to wait til double points in October to buy a bunch more haunted houses and they were sold out around the beginning of September.  Town Hall was gone before that.

TH sporadically showed up in Oct. Several BPers got their last ones then, I believe.

I just checked my own record. I ordered one on Oct 13 and it did get to me.

TH sporadically showed up in Oct. Several BPers got their last ones then, I believe.

I just checked my own record. I ordered one on Oct 13 and it did get to me.

if only i was on this site then.  I was on toysnbricks and they were worthless... lol. (i.e. oh its sold out its gone forever, blah)

if only i was on this site then.  I was on toysnbricks and they were worthless... lol. (i.e. oh its sold out its gone forever, blah)

I believe now you've found the best place to come.

Timing wise, it could become another FB or GE, but not another TH (and forget about GG or CC, those were "the old days" of brick investing).

Respectively, that's just speculation. We have no evidence FB and others WON'T repeat GG performance. FB and GE are both out performing GG at this stage in their life cycle, by a large amount. GG sold for $280 18 months after EOL. GE is now at $280 just 4 months post EOL. FYI.

if only i was on this site then.  I was on toysnbricks and they were worthless... lol. (i.e. oh its sold out its gone forever, blah)

 

There's not much activity on that forum.

the only reason why i remember so vividly is because I remember trying to wait til double points in October to buy a bunch more haunted houses and they were sold out around the beginning of September.  Town Hall was gone before that.

You're remembering incorrectly. TH didn't sell out until a few days into the Oct. double VIP. It was definitely available for purchase from LEGO Shop at Home North America on Oct. 1.

You're remembering incorrectly. TH didn't sell out until a few days into the Oct. double VIP. It was definitely available for purchase from LEGO Shop at Home North America on Oct. 1.

 

Yep. HH definitely "went" before TH. The reason I bought several THs was because of the sudden and much-lamented disappearance of HH as I just started to stockpile. My last TH from LEGO Shop at Home was 10/13/2014. A HH from early September was cancelled.

 

Both were available sporadically for some time via Amazon, Target, WM, though.

Edited February 19, 201510 yr by biking_tiger

I believe now you've found the best place to come.

oh yeah... I heart you guys. 

 

You guys are right about TH online, maybe I am thinking that it was gone from the lego store in my city around September and I was thinking oh ill buy more when they restock and they never did.

I hope the next corner is class,the should go all out on it , retail it at 350 ,and then retire it in 2017 , and then in 2019 its worth 1500. I may as well dream here as in bed

Respectively, that's just speculation. We have no evidence FB and others WON'T repeat GG performance. FB and GE are both out performing GG at this stage in their life cycle, by a large amount. GG sold for $280 18 months after EOL. GE is now at $280 just 4 months post EOL. FYI.

 

Absolutely, They could perform just as well, but I wouldn't get my hopes up. GG was sold for merely 2 instead of 4 years and went EOL years before modulars were really a thing (as in "what they are today"). FB was happily stocked up by many investors in the later years, since they have seen how GG and CC performed.

The numbers on bricklink don

For sure there is alot of action going on in this topic about the Palace Cinema. Instead in the Pet Shop topic you can hear the crickets.

 

If you believe the theory that you can get alot of information from google on what people search online. The increase of posts in this topic is a bit suspicious and might forecast something. Reminds me of the sudden growth of activity in the Town Hall topic last year. 

For sure there is alot of action going on in this topic about the Palace Cinema. Instead in the Pet Shop topic you can hear the crickets.

 

If you believe the theory that you can get alot of information from google on what people search online. The increase of posts in this topic is a bit suspicious and might forecast something. Reminds me of the sudden growth of activity in the Town Hall topic last year. 

So we started out with some unfounded speculation that the PC could retire early, which spawned a bunch of discussion about that. And now the resulting increase in posts is being cited as evidence that something may be afoot with this set.

 

Circular logic at its best.

Edited February 19, 201510 yr by bricketycricket

Maybe Emazers can give his opinion on this set? I just read that he bought two PC's and two PS's today.

 

My actions are where my mouth is. I just ordered 3 PC's. So I have reached my minimum stack of 5. 

Edited February 19, 201510 yr by Ciglione

IIRC he said he was moving to this set and EV. I have reached  my number anyway so I am not trying to convince anyway yay or nay.

Absolutely, They could perform just as well, but I wouldn't get my hopes up. GG was sold for merely 2 instead of 4 years and went EOL years before modulars were really a thing (as in "what they are today"). FB was happily stocked up by many investors in the later years, since they have seen how GG and CC performed.

 

And of course, you observations are good ones.  I can make a counter argument that the next few modulars will do just as well as GG.  First, the Lego Movie was a game-changer.  It brought in TONS of new customers. Best evidence of this is Lego's record year + huge expansion into new sets in 2015.  This shows that the overall market is growing, quite substantially.   

 

In this environment, we'll see a new influx of AFOL, many (most!) of which will find the modulars and get the bug. Supply of pre-PS modulars is fixed; they're won't be anymore.  Demand is growing.  A repeat of GG-like returns is possible.  There may a bit of lag in achieving these results, given that a greater proportion of FB/GE was bought be resellers, but I still don't think the overall market share of resellers in these sets is more than 10-20% of the total.

 

 It's quite possible we'll look back in a few years, and realize that the first 6-8 modulars behaved fairly similarly, due to growth of the AFOL market.  Just an alternate opinion, here, nothing more.  Regardless, I still think the now-retired modulars are among the best (and safest) bets in this whole game.

Edited February 19, 201510 yr by diablo2112

All great points ,I really think that hindsight is massive,as usual,and in 3 years we will all say "wasn't Parisian ,cinema ,detectives,and pet, were really great buys ,as i said before,only buying to put away until my 5year old is 16 please god.and either way it will be a great return, does anyone think any of the Lego movie sets will go large as in large financially,even the Ghostbusters will triple i reckon in value.you got to hand it to the design and marketing guys and gals in Lego, they have their act together.

And i forgot GE ,which is a storming buy

So we started out with some unfounded speculation that the PC could retire early, which spawned a bunch of discussion about that. And now the resulting increase in posts is being cited as evidence that something may be afoot with this set.

Circular logic at its best.

I'm not exactly sure when it happened, but I think that predicting EOL sets has jumped the shark.

EOL Speculation seems a lot like a roulette wheel; everyone has a 1 in 37 chance of being correct and some people selectively remember the 1 winning combination out of dozens of spins.

EOL Speculation seems a lot like a roulette wheel; everyone has a 1 in 37 chance of being correct and some people selectively remember the 1 winning combination out of dozens of spins.

 

Yes, otherwise it would not be speculation anymore but trading with pre-knowledge. Which is forbidden.

Yes, otherwise it would not be speculation anymore but trading with pre-knowledge. Which is forbidden.

Forbidden by who?

I really don't care if it retires this year or next year, but like I always say when you can pick up what ever Exclusives you can if you have the money, especially the ones that been out for a while. Ed

Forbidden by who?

The Federal Lego Trade Commission