Do you think that this set will follow Eiffel Tower and Taj Mahal and become really, really expensive in 2-3 years time? Also, do you think that Taj Mahal and Eiffel Tower will be increasing their value even more?

Just from reading many posts around here, I get the sense that many members have a "flipper" mentality.  Many of you never let a Lego set near its peak value before selling it.  In fact, many of you have "premature speculation" disease.  In other words, you sell a set way too early!

 

There is no right or wrong way to invest. While you hold a set for 5 years, someone else might flip sets 2-3 times in the same timeframe and actually have more money as an outcome. I don't think anyone can preach a one-size-fits-all solution.

 

I do think there is a difference though between flipping with intent as part of your strategy to reinvest, vs panic selling with no plan. So I agree some might sell too early in that case.

EOL isn't everything, but it is quite a bit: everyone has limitations (the two biggest being space and money).  Buying sets at retail a month before EOL and then selling them during the Christmas buying season will get you a lot more money in the end than buying a newly issued set and then having to sit on it for three years.  Even with discounts factored in, you will be able to make money doing the first because you can complete 2 or 3 buying and selling cycles in the same time as it takes to complete 1 in the first scenario.

 

 

The guy you quoted was right though...

 

many of those sets EOLing (according to emazers) already were below retail so everyone should have them really...

 

SSD was available for 300$ at some point and every ''serious'' (by that I mean investor who has more than 10.000$ invested in LEGO at this moment) should have 2+ for that cash... so its no biggie.)

 

thats the quoted guys point!

Premature speculation But my wife says it happens to a lot of guys...

I am split on the HH. On one hand the set is an absolute rock star so from a single set perspective it makes no sense for then to stop making them. But from a MF line perspective it does ... it may end up costing LEGO more to dedicate production lines to bricks only found in this set rather than free them up for full theme production. I have 0 HH btw so I am really, really hoping on no retirement until after holidays. I may hedge a few just in case.

 

An interesting note on HH. If you watch the video on S @ ****, where they interview the designer, he talks about how this was not planned as part of the MF line, and was pretty much his idea he sold to his boss. Throughout the video, he talks about the challenges of having to do the design while utilizing new pieces from other lines - gives me the impression that this set doesn't actually have much custom stuff when it comes to bricks.

 

This could mean it will be easy for them to keep producing it if that is the case. I have not looked on brickset or anything to see what crazy uniques they have in the set though....

Premature speculation But my wife says it happens to a lot of guys...

 

I thought it was only my wife that cheered me up with this kind of reassurance!

I can feel the egos oozing out of this thread...

Yes a lot of you are right after 2-3 years everybody should have plenty of Tower Bridges and SSDS put away, but I am pretty sure there are alot of Lego Investors don't have but 1 or 2 or some don't have any, and with that sale last May the SDDS was $309 and there have been plenty of sales during the year that it was pretty cheap, as for the Tower Bridge there have been some $180-220 sales, when the 10212 Shuttle was $207 looks like hardly anybody loaded up on them, so don't make the mistake on the SSDS and Tower Bridge.They should be around til the end of the year so watch for sales. "If we only knew for sure about the haunted House."

Confirming EOL off the catalog is a waste of time.  Not to poop on anything emazers said, it is really just common sense that these sets are getting retired.  Every Lego set gets retired with the exception of the 10188, so how hard is it to take a guess about retirement dates?

 

He isn't using the shop at home catalog, but rather, the lego wholesale one. As for it being a waste of time, if thats your point of view, you don't have to use this info to speculate with, thats fine. 

 

Knowing an EOL date is extremely important, but I would also agree that it is always more importatnt to put most of your effort into getting sets as cheap as possible. That doesn't mean it isn't also good buying practice for the long term investor to purchase additional sets right at EOL. I have purchased several at EOL for full price that have done very well and I don't regret it for a second. 

 

I think the EOL rushes get more publicity on here just because they generate more talk and excitement rather than a normal set, plodding through its production cycle. I wouldn't doubt that most of the investors here spend most of their money by buying at the cheapest rather than just at the end. 

 

Personally, I wouldn't be caught without any of these sets, even if I had to purchase them at full retail (except perhaps the fire brigade). 

Thing is, its extremely DIFFICULT to calculate what is mathematically better overall.

 

Say you could buy SSD for 310$ now its 400$. 

 

Was it better buying it at May for 310$ and tie 310$ ATLEAST 6 months longer (if not close to a year) or is it better buying it like the month it will EOL for lets say 380$.

 

Noone can calculate 100% correctly how much money you could make with 310$ freed up instead of tied up... the only thing you can calculate is your own gains (either total or per month) if you'd bought it for 310$

 

So its a personal choice more than anything else. 

 

 

 

I think when a SET is 30% off you cannot do much wrong buying it ... allthough I wonder hypothetically

 

Lets say LOTR wave 2 launches and its put on 25% off instantly.... would you buy it (like 3 months after released for 25% off) or would you pass the opportunity ?

I would buy 1-2 sets only with a decent sale even if the theme just launched.  Why not.  Depends on the price point on particular sets also. But some people have space issues so they may wait.  Other people live in markets with not many sales and would be smart to buy when it's a decent sale on sets you like or think there's potential.  Everybody is different and makes it more interesting. 

 

But for sure I wouldn't go crazy and pick up 10-30 sets of a new theme even on a sale.  Too much risk and having your $ tied up for who knows how long.  Unless of course you knew it was very limited.   

AND MY FRIEND ALSO SAID THE DEATH STAR IS HEAR FOR ANOTHER YEAR.

 

NEVER SAY DIE!!! RAWR!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yaTCXcvTGY

I'm not knocking emazers and his info.  It might be true.  Maybe not.  My issue is with some members thinking they just received the Golden keys to the Kingdom.  EOL data is the least important factor when making money at Lego investing.  Taking the 10188 out of the equation, the EOL of Lego sets is very predictable for most sets.  People will benefit more from Joe Schmo posting a great deal from a retailer like Amazon than speculating about EOL dates.

I would buy 1-2 sets only with a decent sale even if the theme just launched.  Why not.  Depends on the price point on particular sets also. But some people have space issues so they may wait.  Other people live in markets with not many sales and would be smart to buy when it's a decent sale on sets you like or think there's potential.  Everybody is different and makes it more interesting. 

 

But for sure I wouldn't go crazy and pick up 10-30 sets of a new theme even on a sale.  Too much risk and having your $ tied up for who knows how long.  Unless of course you knew it was very limited.   

People talk about "having money tied up."  Isn't that investing in general?  How long is too long when holding onto a Lego set  for investment purposes?  1 month?  6 months?  1 year or more?  Short term Lego investing, besides a rare situation like the Minecraft set, is just churning dollars.  If you would wait and let sets reach their peak value after EOL before selling, you could benefit greatly and maybe make a profit that is substantial.  That is the trick.  When to buy, when to sell.  Not EOL dates.

It's funny you say eol dates are predictable in a thread about two sets that are well past the standard shelf life :)

I'm not knocking emazers and his info.  It might be true.  Maybe not.  My issue is with some members thinking they just received the Golden keys to the Kingdom.  EOL data is the least important factor when making money at Lego investing.  Taking the 10188 out of the equation, the EOL of Lego sets is very predictable for most sets.  People will benefit more from Joe Schmo posting a great deal from a retailer like Amazon than speculating about EOL dates.

 

I guess everyone should only listen to you, since you are the only expert on the board...

I think it's just a friendly reminder to pick one up if you haven't already otherwise you may face aftermarket prices instead of msrp.  I'm sure people have their reasons on why they haven't picked up certain sets already.  Being reminded that all good things come to and end doesn't hurt.

I'm not knocking emazers and his info.  It might be true.  Maybe not.  My issue is with some members thinking they just received the Golden keys to the Kingdom.  EOL data is the least important factor when making money at Lego investing.  Taking the 10188 out of the equation, the EOL of Lego sets is very predictable for most sets.  People will benefit more from Joe Schmo posting a great deal from a retailer like Amazon than speculating about EOL dates.

 

I agree to this.  More people should post great deals from Amazon.com!

I'm not knocking emazers and his info.  It might be true.  Maybe not.  My issue is with some members thinking they just received the Golden keys to the Kingdom.  EOL data is the least important factor when making money at Lego investing.  Taking the 10188 out of the equation, the EOL of Lego sets is very predictable for most sets.  People will benefit more from Joe Schmo posting a great deal from a retailer like Amazon than speculating about EOL dates.

 

With all due respect, Damnation666,

Emazers has provided far more useful information than you have.  While EOL dates might not be as useful as deal details, EOL dates are still useful.  If you come across great deals on amazon, walmart, kmart, etc., please do post them.  Again, Emazers has provided far more useful information than you have.  Knocking members who have consistently provided good advice (e.***., Emazers) is unwarranted.

To each their own...advice is good but if some 'investors' like to flip sets rather than wait, what's the harm?!    Some people enjoy the action of chasing deals, making transactions, meeting soccor moms on ducati's, and repeating process.  If others prefer buying sets and storing them for 1-5yrs than so be it.  Whatever makes you happy or don't get into Lego 'investing' at all   Life is too short to quibble over 'when to sell' etc.  Learn from your experiences and take advice from people you trust. 

I could have bought 3 arkhams for 360 from amazon at that last sale, put them in storage for two years, then made 300 in profit. Or, I could buy 3 helms deeps at clearance for 300, and sell them in january for 240 profit. That's why eol dates are important. If you have the capital to do both, then by all means, please do. I had to choose one or the other. The quicker I make a profit, the sooner I can roll that money into a more expensive, less discounted set. If I buy a tower bridge with my helms deep profits, then i can afford to let it sit for years without worrying about the purchase price eating into my start up capital.

People talk about "having money tied up."  Isn't that investing in general?  How long is too long when holding onto a Lego set  for investment purposes?  1 month?  6 months?  1 year or more?  Short term Lego investing, besides a rare situation like the Minecraft set, is just churning dollars.  If you would wait and let sets reach their peak value after EOL before selling, you could benefit greatly and maybe make a profit that is substantial.  That is the trick.  When to buy, when to sell.  Not EOL dates.

 

It's a lot easier to dump tanking stocks than it is to dump tanking sets... 

It's funny you say eol dates are predictable in a thread about two sets that are well past the standard shelf life

So if I told you the SSD would go on sale for $300 tomorrow and go EOL next year, would that cause you to buy one tomorrow if you were planning on buying one or would you wait to get a better deal 8-12 months from now and risk losing a 25% off sale?  Well that situation happened last year and many chose to wait and they will never get that deal again.  Point is, if the set is a good deal, the EOL date is unimportant, buy the set early and wait.  If you bought this set last year, you already made money if the set never goes on sale again, $100(on $400 invested) in fact.

 

Having EOL dates is great, but the people who buy sets at the proper price and sell them right before a set plateaus are the ones who make money.

It's a lot easier to dump tanking stocks than it is to dump tanking sets... 

That's my favorite emoticon so far.

As far as damnation's contributions to this forum: he did start the most popular thread we have :)

So if I told you the SSD would go on sale for $300 tomorrow and go EOL next year, would that cause you to buy one tomorrow if you were planning on buying one or would you wait to get a better deal 8-12 months from now and risk losing a 25% off sale?  Well that situation happened last year and many chose to wait and they will never get that deal again.  Point is, if the set is a good deal, the EOL date is unimportant, buy the set early and wait.  If you bought this set last year, you already made money if the set never goes on sale again, $100(on $400 invested) in fact.

 

Having EOL dates is great, but the people who buy sets at the proper price and sell them right before a set plateaus are the ones who make money.

  

I could have bought 3 arkhams for 360 from amazon at that last sale, put them in storage for two years, then made 300 in profit. Or, I could buy 3 helms deeps at clearance for 300, and sell them in january for 240 profit. That's why eol dates are important. If you have the capital to do both, then by all means, please do. I had to choose one or the other. The quicker I make a profit, the sooner I can roll that money into a more expensive, less discounted set. If I buy a tower bridge with my helms deep profits, then i can afford to let it sit for years without worrying about the purchase price eating into my start up capital.

"My MOC is bigger than your MOC."

 

If you're making money or see that the sets you own are appreciating in value, then your investment strategy is working for you. It's funny, I think if people read emazers post properly, they'd realize he didn't go out and say buy it yesterday at full retail. He's using coupons for a discount... He already has some stocked up (presumably some were gotten for great deals)... He's hoping for a further sale later this year. But in typical "I'm right you're wrong" attitudes found all over forums on the internet... <insert holier than thou speech here.>

 

I appreciate the info emazers, thanks.

 

Personally I don't think I'll have any more capital to invest any time soon (renovating older homes is expensive) and I'm more of a long-term investor so I won't flip the sets I currently have to reinvest. If the opportunity to buy more SSDs, Tower Bridges or Fire Brigades arise, then so be it. Otherwise, I'm happy with where I sit.