I'm thinking I should have ordered PS and TH instead of the sandcrawler today. I am not a reseller, just a collector, and do not have PS or TH in my collection yet.... Debating whether to cancel my sandcrawler order.....

sandcrawler is awesome. u will love it.

 

i doubt either the TH or PS is gone before 2014 ends

Hmmm.. Glad I ordered PS and TH at the stroke of midnight.

Hmmm.. Glad I ordered PS and TH at the stroke of midnight.

exhibit A.

or is that B since I did the same???hmmmm

the biggest reason to buy PS is you can't buy it from anywhere else now, at least not at MSRP. It may linger like GE you one need time to stock anyway.

If you order a PS now, and it doesn't ship until Nov, do you still get the 2x vip points?

If you order a PS now, and it doesn't ship until Nov, do you still get the 2x vip points?

yes

I don't think there is any chance this is gone this year. People are freaking out and the GE is in stock as well.

The number of large exclusive sets is over 25 right now.  I don't think Lego has ever had close to that many in production before this year.  There will probably be some surprise retirements yet this year.  A four year production run of Modulars may not be the new normal.

This is an interesting point. It does seem like there is a lot of spiking going on with these big sets where some go OOS while production is tied up with others. GE was sold out, other modulars all in stock, then a GE production run happens and 2 of the other modulars are suddenly backordered. Couple that with virtually unavailable sets like Tumbler, RI, etc. and I think something's gotta give. Wouldn't be surprised if it was the TH over the PS purely due to price point but its anyone's guess. I'd like to get one of each for my collection but not sure which one to spring for first at the moment.

I don't think there is any chance this is gone this year. People are freaking out and the GE is in stock as well.

it may last the end of the year into early next but the fact is that its the best time to buy this set ... double VIP with promo ...

I waited on the HH and got burned for it- I won't do that again. Going to use x2 to acquire 50% of my targeted acquisitions for both TH and PS.

One thing I noticed is that the PS is pulling a GE on target. It's at $212. Target raised prices when the SSD was coming in and out. Hard to believe the PS will go though. This is by far one of the best modulars aside from Green Grocer.

There has been a number of creator sets out the past 6 months. Parisian restaurant, Maersk and fairground mixer. I can't figure out which of the creator sets the fairground is replacing. The restaurant is most definitely replacing the GE.

The number of large exclusive sets is over 25 right now.  I don't think Lego has ever had close to that many in production before this year.  There will probably be some surprise retirements yet this year.  A four year production run of Modulars may not be the new normal.

 

Of course, some sets will be retired very soon among those 25:

1- 10228 HH will certainly officially be retired soon

2 - the 9398 4x4

3 - the 10223 kingdoms joust

4 - 10221 SSD

5 - 10937 Batman Arkham A.

6 - 10214 Tower Bridge

...

 

? - who knows, maybe the Tower of Orthanc and The simpsons house: both due to a licence that may not long for that long

? - 10188 death star ( )

 

Only then , I would add the Pet Shop (after the 6 sets I listed before).

If it's true that it retires in winter '14/'15 you would be glad to have some. I don't think this will happen (I think it will on autumn 2015), but hey who knows for sure. Whatever it never hurts to get some of a 3 years old (and more) modular at double VIP points, so if you want some, do it !

Edited October 2, 201411 yr by biniou

One thing I noticed is that the PS is pulling a GE on target. It's at $212. Target raised prices when the SSD was coming in and out. Hard to believe the PS will go though. This is by far one of the best modulars aside from Green Grocer.

There has been a number of creator sets out the past 6 months. Parisian restaurant, Maersk and fairground mixer. I can't figure out which of the creator sets the fairground is replacing. The restaurant is most definitely replacing the GE.

Ecto-1 also pulled GE on target awhile back (repricing back to MSRP afterwards), so I think that target prices don't add any additional information - they just reflect current availability (well, the lack of thereof) at major retailers, not accounting for LEGO Shop at Home

Edited October 2, 201411 yr by No More Monkeys

Ecto-1 also pulled GE on target awhile back (repricing back to MSRP afterwards), so I think that target prices don't add any additional information - they just reflect current availability (well, the lack of thereof) at major retailers, not accounting for LEGO Shop at Home

True. It's possible that target saw the buying frenzy and decided to raise prices. People are still willing to buy at inflated prices. Last year, as I can recall, there wasn't as big of a buying frenzy on any of the modulars. Getting PS, TH and GE was so easy and people were listing them on eBay below MSRP. It's possible many more have caught on to lego investment causing a supply shortage.

Ecto-1 also pulled GE on target awhile back (repricing back to MSRP afterwards), so I think that target prices don't add any additional information - they just reflect current availability (well, the lack of thereof) at major retailers, not accounting for LEGO Shop at Home

Interestingly, Target has not raised prices on HH or TH, and the former has been unavailable elsewhere at MSRP for awhile now.  I think there's more to their price raising than simply matching Amazon marketplace sellers, etc., or we'd see more consistency in that regard.  My money (literally) is on TH coming back, and possibly even HH, although I've already got 12 of those.  I think brickpickers are having a significant but temporary effect on inventories of some slower-selling sets (in the case of HH, Halloween helps too).  People said walmart.com had ~180 TH's the other day, before the buying frenzy started.  I'm sure they've got more elsewhere in the supply chain.  The 180 was just whatever happened to be lying around in their fulfillment (shipping) centers, and brickpickers ate that up.  But seriously, we could do the same for any exclusive in a 24-hour period, so this in itself means very little.

Hmmmm, what would we need to do to trigger the BP'er effect on the Pet Shop???

Hmmmm, what would we need to do to trigger the BP'er effect on the Pet Shop???

 

I'm game its on my list for Black Friday weekend to load up for Christmas Set 2 of 2.  Hope it lasts till then.

Hmmmm, what would we need to do to trigger the BP'er effect on the Pet Shop???

Hmmmm, what would we need to do to trigger the BP'er effect on the Pet Shop???

We need Ed to cite something confusing and mention horse in a separate post. I think that's the secret code

We need Ed to cite something confusing and mention horse in a separate post. I think that's the secret code

 

Doesn't a fork come into play at some point?

Doesn't a fork come into play at some point?

 

Yes, Fork, Hose and then Prophecy, then Dictionary.com to translate

? - who knows, maybe the Tower of Orthanc and The simpsons house: both due to a licence that may not long for that long

 Since there is going to be a wave 2 of Simpsons figs apparently, the licence should prevail for a while.

 

Also regarding the fluctuation of stock levels: it is clearly apparent for me that LEGO can't keep up with the demand of specific sets. Actually it is hard to tell for LEGO when the stocks will be scarce because when it happens it is like a self-fulfilling prophecy. It is enough to slip just once into out of stock because of a slight miscalculation of demand, but then the panic buying begins. Without this (sometimes fake) signal the demand would not be that high. 

 

Then why doesn't LEGO just produce in excess? Because their capacities are locked down so much currently that they can't afford it. Also letting them backordered, which was already mentioned before by several people, propels extra demand and LEGO can be sure that whatever is produced will be shipped. Companies like preorders because they can fine-tune their production and don't have to store their wares.

Edited October 5, 201411 yr by inversion

The blue pigeon lands at midnight...I repeat...The blue pigeon lands at midnight.

I read it as end of 2015

I read it as end of 2015

Let us wait for trek to weigh in before we jump into conclusions

The fat man walks alone....I repeat. The fat man walks alone.