(...or maybe not. Don't wait if you planned to get some)

Agree.

 

I'm glad I got one for my own collection like last year. I will definitely be panic if I don't have one in hand and now it's OOS. Collection 1st, and then investment.

I am going to get all TH in local lego store if any left

Collection 1st, and then investment.

 

I totally agree. It's the only reason that I have at least one of these. Just a beautiful looking set (haven't build TH yet, but it's definitely not getting resold...)

I am going to get all TH in local lego store if any left

congrats on post #1000

BA.  I think the poll tells us that you, I, and Ed Mack can all go on a road trip clean out all the B&M's and we will either be laughing all the way to the bank or have to hold for 12-24 months.  Either way it is not bad.  Like that I am against the common ideology this time.  Come on TH and retire.

That might be the results of the the poll. However, our behavior is clearly inconsistent with the results of this poll

Thanks...i didnt know that..lol

Even if you missed out on this set, there are still so many potential winners over the next 6-12 months.  Look at the sets that are nearing EOL: R2, T1, TB, AA, Orthanc, etc.  So many opportunities to buy sets with great returns.  

 

Some simple advice for everyone.  Keep an eye out for new TH stock and buy those up with whatever funds you can scrap together.  If nothing shows up, move on to the next set that you think is a winner.  Simple as that.  You have to move on.

 

Skate to where the puck is going to be.

 

Consider that advice taken. In my buying budget at the moment I had room for two investment TH (have one for collection already). Whether they come back or not, I can't foresee. So I moved on two Orthancs today instead. If I had to pick a boat I don't want to miss, it would be Orthanc over TH (but that is pretty much personal preference, not knowledge about which will be better...just have a good feeling about Orthanc and love LOTR).

Well the NeoGaf crowd thinks its a goner.  I'm not 100% convinced.  However, if I missed it I missed it.  No crying over spilt milk at this point.

Well the NeoGaf crowd thinks its a goner. I'm not 100% convinced. However, if I missed it I missed it. No crying over spilt milk at this point.

Are they superior species, comparing to us?

Are they superior species, comparing to us?

No comment :)

If you buy TH now, you will be stockpiling a bunch of 24 x 20 x 4 inch boxes, and have to keep them for two years before they even begin to appreciate.  That's assuming a standard EOL schedule for TH of course.  That could certainly be wrong, but there's no particular reason to think it is.  With the right rumor on this site and others like it, any 2014 release could be made to show all the signs of EOL within a day or two.  Ultimately, of course, investors would lose that race against mass production.  Exo-Suit may be shaping up along these lines.  And in the past there have been plenty of times when 10188 was briefly hard to find online, only to live on for years.  6860 disappeared everywhere last Christmas, and that was clearly somewhat in advance of actual EOL.

 

I remember a little while ago someone posting that FB's annualized return was not really so great, and someone else pointing out that it only looked mediocre if you measured it from the release date in 2009.  If you bought FB last Black Friday, you did pretty well indeed.  That's the difference between buying years early and buying just in time.  If you pick up TH now, you take a big risk of falling into the former category.  There are more reliable bets out there (in terms of approaching EOL; I have no problem with the TH set designwise).

How many SSD do you have?

Ghostdad respectfully I go with Ed Mack and the multiple posts he has made in this thread.

Great post but only one thing, can you enlighten me which set can be had for $20 and sold for $50 in a short turnaround? Like RI? People are super competitive over those and it may be even hard to get sets like that. I'm sure arctic batman will be $50 one day, but you have to wait a longer period too. You make it sound too easy in that department.

If you don't have the Pet Shop (among other sets) and you want some - then now is the time. If you can't afford it AND you want one or some, then buy 6 $20 sets, sell them for 50 each and use that to buy yourself 2 Pet Shops

I await the next 2 years to see established members saying that they have no Tumblers, EEE, Parisian Restaurants, etc.

Wow cheapest on eBay is now $340 with damaged box

If you buy TH now, you will be stockpiling a bunch of 24 x 20 x 4 inch boxes, and have to keep them for two years before they even begin to appreciate.  That's assuming a standard EOL schedule for TH of course.  That could certainly be wrong, but there's no particular reason to think it is.  With the right rumor on this site and others like it, any 2014 release could be made to show all the signs of EOL within a day or two.  Ultimately, of course, investors would lose that race against mass production.  Exo-Suit may be shaping up along these lines.  And in the past there have been plenty of times when 10188 was briefly hard to find online, only to live on for years.  6860 disappeared everywhere last Christmas, and that was clearly somewhat in advance of actual EOL.

 

I remember a little while ago someone posting that FB's annualized return was not really so great, and someone else pointing out that it only looked mediocre if you measured it from the release date in 2009.  If you bought FB last Black Friday, you did pretty well indeed.  That's the difference between buying years early and buying just in time.  If you pick up TH now, you take a big risk of falling into the former category.  There are more reliable bets out there (in terms of approaching EOL; I have no problem with the TH set designwise).

 

I don't believe that Lego has a formula for sets and that they never deviate from. Manufacturing doesn't work like that. A product is designed with an expected/hoped-for life time but low or high sales can swing the life span one way or another. I'd bet the Death Star was never planned to have such a long life. Don't act so certain that this set will not retire. Fact is neither of us knows

 

What swayed me was the fact that Lego LEGO Shop at Home had a limit of 2 for this set but 5 for PS, speaks a lot, but obviously nothing certain. PR and PS also have limits of 5. Along with the pile of other evidence

Cool, i'll take that.

Wow cheapest on eBay is now $340 with damaged box

Bargain! What's that purchase scheme called 'Buy Now Regret Later'

Bargain! What's that purchase scheme called 'Buy Now Regret Later'

 

As long as I am doing the selling on them that's great with me.

As long as I am doing the selling on them that's great with me.

Might want to get in there quick before they turn into dust collectors.

Seal codes on Oct 1 order that arrived today are 25R4.

Seal codes on 3 picked up at b&m stores today were all from 2012 and 2013. I really believe that this set has collected a lot of dust.

Grabbed one today and lego store and 26r4...

I left a few behind. They are still out there at b&m stores.

Might want to get in there quick before they turn into dust collectors.

Nah I just want to buy them as a terrible investment...

Nah I just want to buy them as a terrible investment...

I'll be right there with you. Not at that price though lol