It seems that for a lot of sets there is a barrier in Europe that will be not broken for months:

 

Maersk ship - 200 Euro

Town Hall - 400 Euro

Mars Rover - 100 Euro

 

There are some few exceptions but the most of these sets cannot be sold for a higher price.

I know what will happen to my THs...

*cough* arbitrage *cough*

It seems that for a lot of sets there is a barrier in Europe that will be not broken for months:

 

Maersk ship - 200 Euro

Town Hall - 400 Euro

Mars Rover - 100 Euro

 

There are some few exceptions but the most of these sets cannot be sold for a higher price.

 

Sadly it is all about supply and demand. As long as supply is far beyond demand (and that's the case for the mentioned sets and many others at the moment) and more and more people willing (or in need?) to undercut competitors by large amounts to reach their low settled goals of earning 50% or so ... we have to wait longer and longer, not only weeks or months! Patience... until the cheap sources run dry.

Mars rover cost 30 euros so 100 euros is 3.5 times MSRP in less than a year - if people are not happy with that maybe they should invest in something else!!!!!!!

Exactly... our patience is really put to the test here.

 

Some people are happy with a few bucks profit. Unfortunately they are catering the lego market too soon. So not only do we have to wait longer. The market to sell once the impatient ones are done selling will be pretty thin. It also makes the market less predictable. This is one of the reasons my purchasing has cooled down to zero the last two months.

The three examples mentioned by mauro23 are not the best ones to express this barrier in Europe, I agree.

 

I think better examples could be:

 

8110 Unimog - as soon as it reaches more than 250

At least the overall growth rate still is acceptable!

I have an offer for a brand new sealed town hall for US $450. Do you guys think it's a fair price for investment? The price goes up a lot recently...

I don't see you getting much lower than $450. If you want to buy in high, this is a good set to aquire.

Your call.  Some think this is the last of the $1000+ potential modulars.  CC/GG territory here.  If you think that, ask yourself, are you happy having passed up a $450 TH?  The question doesn't exist in isolation.  You can send that $450 into 3X PS or PC right now; combined, they're just as likely to go $1000+.  All depends on your risk tolerance.  No guarantees with this one.  

Edited April 8, 201510 yr by diablo2112

I have an offer for a brand new sealed town hall for US $450. Do you guys think it's a fair price for investment? The price goes up a lot recently...

I'd pull the trigger. I think that this set will be $800 within a couple of years.

I have an offer for a brand new sealed town hall for US $450. Do you guys think it's a fair price for investment? The price goes up a lot recently...

For a long term hold, Prob yes. Do you already own any 10224s?

Think of it has a conservative investment. Slower growth than some other sets since the "initial pop" already happened but it has a chance at $1,000. People can't say that about most post-2011 sets (only 2 other sets have a chance).

One sold for $580 + $60 shipping recently on ebay

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Brickpicker mobile app

For a long term hold, Prob yes. Do you already own any 10224s?

Think of it has a conservative investment. Slower growth than some other sets since the "initial pop" already happened but it has a chance at $1,000. People can't say that about most post-2011 sets (only 2 other sets have a chance).

 

OT, but I did notice your reference.  What other 2 post-2011 sets do you see as $1000+  DS and SSD?  SSD is a 2011 set, not sure if it's in your definition.  If not, I'd guess SOH is possible to reach $1k?  IMHO, SOH is undersold.

Edited April 9, 201510 yr by diablo2112

OT, but I did notice your reference.  What other 2 post-2011 sets do you see as $1000+  DS and SSD?  SSD is a 2011 set, not sure if it's in your definition.  If not, I'd guess SOH is possible to reach $1k?  IMHO, SOH is undersold.

Ha. Wish I was giving you new info but many have alos stated the same already. Sets introduced since 2011, many agree only 3 retired sets have a legit chance at $1000: 10221, 10224 and 10228. Originally Nobody would have expected the TH to be a $1k candidate but the 2 yr retail life really helped. I'm pretty sure the $1k list would be larger if not for long retail lives (SOH, LB, 10188, etc...). I assume The Tumbler might also have a shot if it only lasts 2 years... Just seems in this era of Lego investing, many stars (supply/ demand, availability, whether discounted, etc...) need to align to reach $1k after retirement :(

If timeliness is not a factor (5+ years), I would add:

• 10237-1: Tower of Orthanc
• 10225-1: R2-D2
• 10236-1: Ewok Village

There is no way that these three sets are not in the 1K+ territory 5 years after retirement.

 

Large Sets post 2010

Edited April 9, 201510 yr by Follows Closely

I was just coming out of the dark ages when TH pulled its sudden retirement. I managed to grab one in the final days. Here is my dilemma: my single copy sits on the shelf in mint condition, but I HAVE to have one copy for my modular building collection. Used copies are starting to creep up on eBay and bricklink, but I can probably grab a set for $400-$450.

Do I concede that I missed the boat on this set and crack the seals on my only copy for personal build. In this case I invest the $450 in other exclusives like 3 X Palace Cinemas.

Or spend my $450 now to buy a used copy for my modular street and keep my NISB for a rainy day in case the prices get really up there in a few years.

Simply put, for my $650 buy in, am I better long term with 1 TH built + 1 TH MISB or 1 TH built + 3 PC MISB?

Thanks in advance for any opinions.

Edited April 14, 201510 yr by Deadfraggle

1 TH built and 1 TH MISB 

I was just coming out of the dark ages when TH pulled its sudden retirement. I Managed to grab one in the final days. Here is my dilemma: my single copy sits on the shelf in mint condition, but I HAVE to one copy for my modular building collection. Used copies are starting to creep up on eBay and bricklink, but I can probably grab a set for $400-$450.

Do I concede that I missed the boat on this set and crack the seals on my only copy for personal build. In this case I invest the $450 in other exclusives like 3 X Palace Cinemas.

Or spend my $450 now to ****** up a used copy for my modular street and keep my NISB for a rainy day in case the prices get really up there in a few years.

Simply put, for my $650 buy in, am I better long term with 1 TH built + 1 TH MISB or 1 TH built + 3 PC MISB?

Thanks in advance for any opinions.

Ok off the wall.

Leave the one sealed on the shelf.

Then buy 3 Death Stars. It's going this year I think and the replacement in my opinion will not meet this one.

Keep them sealed too.

I'm jesting but really I am being serious too. Something to consider.

I agree whatever you do don't open the sealed one,

Ok off the wall.

Leave the one sealed on the shelf.

Then buy 3 Death Stars. It's going this year I think and the replacement in my opinion will not meet this one.

Keep them sealed too.

I'm jesting but really I am being serious too. Something to consider.

I did think about buying a single DS with my money this month, but the way everyone around here talks, there's eleventy billion of them hoarded due to its extended availability.

I did think about buying a single DS with my money this month, but the way everyone around here talks, there's eleventy billion of them hoarded due to its extended availability.

Look at the DS thread survey. It's skewed and not scientific but I think there is far less hoarded than most people think.

I'm diving in with both lightsabers.

Do I concede that I missed the boat on this set and crack the seals on my only copy for personal build. In this case I invest the $450 in other exclusives like 3 X Palace Cinemas.

Or spend my $450 now to buy a used copy for my modular street and keep my NISB for a rainy day in case the prices get really up there in a few years.

Buy a used one. Think about it this way:

Scenario 1: You open your new one and build it. Result: You own a used Town Hall.

Scenario 2: You sell your new one and immediately use the proceeds to buy a used one and build it. Result: You own a used Town Hall PLUS the additional profits.

No-brainer.

Open and build. You are already very much in the profit if you sell it later. Used price will raise with new price, so as new goes up so does used. I wouldn't throw $450 as a used trying to chase the new price.

Open and build. You are already very much in the profit if you sell it later. Used price will raise with new price, so as new goes up so does used. I wouldn't throw $450 as a used trying to chase the new price.

I lean towards this now. I was in a similar situation with another set once, and went the sell-new and buy-used route. It sounded so logical. It turned out to be ok, in the sense that I now own that used set, plus a small additional set instead of just one used set - but it probably was not worth the effort of constantly being on the watch for a nice and not too expensive used set.

 

In particular for the TH, the price difference between used and new minus fees and shipping isn't that large, and might not get to be in the near future. Open your town hall and be happy to have one, for the price you paid.

 

The only other option is to buy a used now, but sell the new later - not now. That would make sense. Selling the new now to buy a used isn't worth it I think.

Edited April 14, 201510 yr by 10230