GE ordered last week came today - seal is 27R4.

looks like a new production run?

Just picked up two more. Thanks for the tip!

I remember that some people were scoffing at the idea of cataloguing seal codes, but this is a situation where it will be very useful. We'll learn a LOT if these GEs have a new production run.

Just picked up two more. Thanks for the tip!

I remember that some people were scoffing at the idea of cataloguing seal codes, but this is a situation where it will be very useful. We'll learn a LOT if these GEs have a new production run.

I'm still in the scoffing camp. Other than the fact that they are available again, which doesn't require a seal code to know, what does it tell you? Did they make enough to last 1 month or 6 months? When that run is done, will they make another? Will they make another after that? All the codes do is tell you about something that has already happened. Without at least one more known variable, like production run size, they're just a novelty.

GE ordered last week came today - seal is 27R4.

looks like a new production run?

Yep, new run, not a redistribution from europe. I wonder why availability of the new run is so scarce?

What was the last run?  I agree with Mos Eisley.  Not enough information to formulate an opinion or investment direction

Scoff scoff scoff

The codes do give me a good prediction for when folks might scoff.  3.2.1.go

All the codes do is tell you about something that has already happened.

Why is it not useful to learn about something just because it has already happened? No, it doesn't tell us everything, but it's a pretty important piece of the puzzle. Knowing that GEs were rolling off the assembly line TWO WEEKS AGO is significant. (The 27th week of 2014 is the first week of July.) It means that the bouncing around of the GE's availability is less likely to be an indicator of imminent retirement, and we can plan accordingly.

Why is it not useful to learn about something just because it has already happened? No, it doesn't tell us everything, but it's a pretty important piece of the puzzle. Knowing that GEs were rolling off the assembly line TWO WEEKS AGO is significant. (The 27th week of 2014 is the first week of July.) It means that the bouncing around of the GE's availability is less likely to be an indicator of imminent retirement, and we can plan accordingly.

We can go in circles around this all day but I'll play along. How is it improving your planning? When will this retire now that we know there was a production run 2 weeks ago? If you wanted to buy some a week ago but now you see that there is a new production run, does it make you want to buy more, less, or create no change in your plans?

What was the last run?  I agree with Mos Eisley.  Not enough information to formulate an opinion or investment direction

Last run was 18R4

A reason why is that no one actually know what the code means.  We know it corresponds to an arbitrary date.  What we don't know is what the date tells us.  Is it a shipping date, an"off the assembly line" date, a planned market order date, an organization date used by LEGO.  If we knew for a fact from LEGO that it meant the week the item came from the mold that might tell us something.  It could be returns from retailers that are re-boxed.  Walmart told me they do not keep that damaged items they send them back to LEGO.  If that is true where do they go?  Are they checked, re-boxed, re-labeled and then shipped out for sale again.  The labels area good but more information is needed to determine what it actually means to LEGO themselves.  We will know in the next 6 months if this one is sticking around.  I do not believe it is.  either way that should not have much bearing on people adding positions.  It has been a gift to add for those people that sat on the sidelines.  If someones investing plan is investing in Modular s that are closest to retirement then it really does not matter if that retirement is now or in 6 months.

The only way I can see where just the seal code is informative is if and only if you can pair it with seals codes from other similar sets (like FB) to maybe tell you if it could be the last production run. For example, if the last production run of FB is 27R3 then maybe you can deduce that this might be the last production run of GE. But, really you would need a third source/confirmation to even begin to have a valid theory.

 

Otherwise, people collecting seal codes should hope to be like Hipparchus and hope that with enough data collection and time, actual trends might appear. But we are talking years from now and you would need confirmation from the next modular to retire (PS?).

 

Anyways, why is anyone surprised that there are new production runs of GE?  Do people really believe LEGO would intentionally retire an AFOL-centric modular set in the middle of the year?

We can go in circles around this all day but I'll play along. How is it improving your planning? When will this retire now that we know there was a production run 2 weeks ago? If you wanted to buy some a week ago but now you see that there is a new production run, does it make you want to buy more, less, or create no change in your plans?

Well, it can affect the degree of panic. knowing that there is 27R4 run, I can assume that Amazon will probably get some, and don't jump on Walmart's possibly returned beat up ones, paying 8% sales tax. also, people now know, that if Target gets some, they certainly should think twice before forking out $249 ...

Well, it can affect the degree of panic. knowing that there is 27R4 run, I can assume that Amazon will probably get some, and don't jump on Walmart's possibly returned beat up ones, paying 8% sales tax. also, people now know, that if Target gets some, they certainly should think twice before forking out $249 ...

And it would also affect those people interested in GE trades. 

Ironically, my July 9 order of GE from LEGO Shop at Home is still on backorder...

And it would also affect those people interested in GE trades. 

Exactly :-)

It can also be a predictor of prices on ebay. SSD is currently selling for $650+ on ebay. If you see a code that indicates a new production run, what do you think will happen to SSD prices on ebay within the week? Sure, many investors just take a buy-and-hold-big-exclusives strategy, but what about the guy who bought an extra SSD (at retail price) even though it stretched his credit just because it looked like the set was gone for good? Now he has a chance to flip it and not have a stretched credit card.

I have more I want to say on the matter, but gotta jet.

We can go in circles around this all day but I'll play along. How is it improving your planning? When will this retire now that we know there was a production run 2 weeks ago? If you wanted to buy some a week ago but now you see that there is a new production run, does it make you want to buy more, less, or create no change in your plans?

This is the dilemma for some, isn't it?  If there is another production run, will they wait to buy the set again, looking for deals that will never come?  Bottom line is, if you want a set and think it's a good investment, don't wait(...as emazers preaches and I concur).  A couple of months here or there will not make a difference in the long term.  If it does, then maybe LEGO investing is not a wise choice for your investment dollars.  LEGO investing, for the most part, is a 2-4 year payoff.  

That $249 Target deal doesn't seem as bad, if you get to use your Red Card.

Also, the fact that there is new production run for GE means that asharerin contacts were mislead...

Also, the fact that there is new production run for GE means that asharerin contacts were mislead...

His garbage man must have got some stinky information.

That $249 Target deal doesn't seem as bad, if you get to use your Red Card.

If it was a joke, then ROFL...

That $249 Target deal doesn't seem as bad, if you get to use your Red Card.

is that a sarcasm in there or for real. i guess its all relative i reckon...

A. S&****= 149.99+tax(9%)=163.41 + free polybag + 5% vip + cash back

B. Target + RC = $249-RC5OFF=236.45 + tax(9%) = $257.84 ....

 

for me "A" looks lot better.

This is the dilemma for some, isn't it?  If there is another production run, will they wait to buy the set again, looking for deals that will never come?  Bottom line is, if you want a set and think it's a good investment, don't wait(...as emazers preaches and I concur).  A couple of months here or there will not make a difference in the long term.  If it does, then maybe LEGO investing is not a wise choice for your investment dollars.  LEGO investing, for the most part, is a 2-4 year payoff.  

ok, a couple of months here on there... "here and there" runs out, your goal was to have 20, you have 10. Do you buy on eBay at inflated price? Do you order re-taped ones from Walmart? Do you buy at Target for 249 if suddenly a truck shows up, and no availability anywhere else? Or you say "oooooh, 27R4... I'll just sit back and relax - it sure will be available at LEGO Shop at Home for a few more months and might show up at amazon for normal price"

A reason why is that no one actually know what the code means.  We know it corresponds to an arbitrary date.  What we don't know is what the date tells us.  Is it a shipping date, an"off the assembly line" date, a planned market order date, an organization date used by LEGO.  If we knew for a fact from LEGO that it meant the week the item came from the mold that might tell us something.  It could be returns from retailers that are re-boxed.  Walmart told me they do not keep that damaged items they send them back to LEGO.  If that is true where do they go?  Are they checked, re-boxed, re-labeled and then shipped out for sale again.  The labels area good but more information is needed to determine what it actually means to LEGO themselves.  We will know in the next 6 months if this one is sticking around.  I do not believe it is.  either way that should not have much bearing on people adding positions.  It has been a gift to add for those people that sat on the sidelines.  If someones investing plan is investing in Modular s that are closest to retirement then it really does not matter if that retirement is now or in 6 months.

Seal code is something that is sufficient for Lego to determine whether or not your set was part of "problem run" (like when entire floor is missing), so it must be related to actual "production".