With the talk of different thinks that may hurt resellers, which do you think poses the most risk? At what time of course effects this. Obviously 3D printing, for example, won't be causing serious harm in the next 6 months. So shall we say flipping/investing in 2-3 years? Very interested to see your opinions. Personally, I find fake sets/minifigs as very threatening, though at the same time, there are still some it shouldn't effect. The people who will pay nearly 2,000 dollars for the Millennium Falcon? Not going to be buying that, I think. So it should not effect ALL the market, but definitely important.

I think the most harm will be done in TLG efforts to stop resellers. Lego already has banned people for buying to much of their product. They have banned some of the larger resellers, but eventually they will start to ban the other resellers. When that does happen, not a lot of people (the resellers) will be buying from Lego anymore because they are either banned or they do not want to get banned. As for the other factors, the fake sets from China. Those are usually minifigures that are faked and that will affect the people who part out sets. The price of certain minifigures is high for some, but the fakes are bringing those prices down due to the low prices that the Chinese sellers are selling them at. IMO, 3D printing will not affect Lego investing for the next five years. The economy crash/decline would affect Lego investing/reselling but only temporarily for however long the crash/decline lasts. The prices of sets will drop due to the how the economy is doing, but they probably could go back to where they originally were. Overall, ALL these factors somehow affect Lego investing one way or another whether you sell MISB sets or you part out sets. 

add another item.

 

Over-production of sets (supply vs. demand).

 

This was the last chain opened that opened the TLG's floodgates of problems that nearly closed the company.  some of 2001, all of 2002, and some of 2003.

add another item.

 

Over-production of sets (supply vs. demand).

 

This was the last chain opened that opened the TLG's floodgates of problems that nearly closed the company.  some of 2001, all of 2002, and some of 2003.

 

I have concerns of this one. If you look at some of the non-licensed themes like Chima and Friends there are SOOO many sets coming out. They can't all be winners and certainly aren't all getting bought a lot. Lego can get to a point where they spread themselves too thin.

 

On the other hand, 7-8 Chima sets are retiring after a year. If they go to more sets quicker retirement, that wont be as bad. But it will hurt the secondary market some - you just have to sell faster.

If they start having more 4-5 year life spans (Death Star, Fire Brigade, Tower Bridge) it's going to limit returns

yeah, overproduction and decreased growth are the two main threats. at some point there will stop being so many new Lego customers. I'm not worried about 3d printers one bit. they're no more a threat to Legos than 2d printers were to books, or VCRs were to movie sales

I have concerns of this one. If you look at some of the non-licensed themes like Chima and Friends there are SOOO many sets coming out. They can't all be winners and certainly aren't all getting bought a lot. Lego can get to a point where they spread themselves too thin.

 

On the other hand, 7-8 Chima sets are retiring after a year. If they go to more sets quicker retirement, that wont be as bad. But it will hurt the secondary market some - you just have to sell faster.

 

true.  too many sets in 1 themes left on shelves along with too many duplicate sets.  in 2001 to 2003, too many sets in general (star wars, potter, and non-movie)  sat on shelves and weren't selling even at 40%-50% off.  There wasn't a Potter or SW movie in 2003 and that really hurt Lego.

add another item.

 

Over-production of sets (supply vs. demand).

 

This was the last chain opened that opened the TLG's floodgates of problems that nearly closed the company.  some of 2001, all of 2002, and some of 2003.

Remember reading about that. If I remember correctly, the Bionicle sets are what saved Lego from closing.

Remember reading about that. If I remember correctly, the Bionicle sets are what saved Lego from closing.

 

100% yes.. Bionicle and major process changes.

Too many resellers

Too many resellers

This is the one that worries me the most. Some sets only sell 10-30 per month on eBay. If resellers are stockpiling hundreds or thousands of certain sets it could take years to sell through all those. Not to mention more resellers means more sets available in the secondary market which drives down prices. I worry too many people are happy with such slim profits that everyone will just undercut the next person.

This is the one that worries me the most. Some sets only sell 10-30 per month on eBay. If resellers are stockpiling hundreds or thousands of certain sets it could take years to sell through all those. Not to mention more resellers means more sets available in the secondary market which drives down prices. I worry too many people are happy with such slim profits that everyone will just undercut the next person.

 

Yep, reseller cannibalism. It will happen too.  They are so many sets hoarded by folks on these boards it will take forever to see good gains for some.  There will be lots of undercutting prices in order to makes sales.

This is the one that worries me the most. Some sets only sell 10-30 per month on eBay. If resellers are stockpiling hundreds or thousands of certain sets it could take years to sell through all those. Not to mention more resellers means more sets available in the secondary market which drives down prices. I worry too many people are happy with such slim profits that everyone will just undercut the next person.

True but those people will eventually leave and only those dedicated ones will be left. We will just have to find more creative ways of making money and getting the good returns.

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At the same time, if Lego stays this popular, the undercutting wont continue too low down. Reason is people not satisfied with lower profits will leave and it will create a profit floor that doesn't fluctuate as much.

This is the one that worries me the most. Some sets only sell 10-30 per month on eBay. If resellers are stockpiling hundreds or thousands of certain sets it could take years to sell through all those. Not to mention more resellers means more sets available in the secondary market which drives down prices. I worry too many people are happy with such slim profits that everyone will just undercut the next person.

And I wonder what part of the secondary market is being fueled by resellers buying from resellers, creating somewhat artificial demand... And yeah, I do wonder what is going to happen if pool of resellers grows creating artificial demand for current sets, so TLG produces either too much, or keeps restocking sets for too long.

Too many resellers

Yup. This website actively spreading the idea doesn't help anyone, except the people that own it and get the commissions from ad clicks from new members stocking up. I respect the hard work and ability to seize an opportunity, but it really will kill reselling in the long run. At the same time, we're all guilty of using it and profiting so none of us have the right to complain about the crash when it happens...

And I wonder what part of the secondary market is being fueled by resellers buying from resellers, creating somewhat artificial demand... And yeah, I do wonder what is going to happen if pool of resellers grows creating artificial demand for current sets, so TLG produces either too much, or keeps restocking sets for too long.

 

As I have been considering reselling, this is exactly what has held me back.  I fully believe resellers are creating artificial demand for Lego sets.  Further, taking a set from say 2004, and looking at its appreciation and comparing it to expected appreciation from 2012 on is not really valid given the apparent changes in the resell market.  We won't see the true effects of the current resell climate until a few years from now, but it will be interesting to see what happens.  My vote is the increase number of resellers will be what would hurt the secondary market.

Definitely the cheap piece-o-crap bootleg brick knockoffs. I imagine that atrocious schlock doing some major damage in the future especially if some people try to actually sell the stuff as actual product and it gets mixed in the system like counterfeit cash.

At this point, I don't see Lego's attempts against resellers as a 'make or break' towards the system. Sites like BrickLink and BrickOwl continue to thrive just fine under their approval, and I have seen a person with over a hundred of one minifigure. (A common one but still is a lot for anybody to have.) All Lego is trying to do is limit the secondary market; not outright kill it. Now when they end up banning Timmy's mother for buying him 'one too many' battlepacks then we'll start seeing complications.

And a decline/crash of the economy could potentially ruin anything.

As I have been considering reselling, this is exactly what has held me back.  I fully believe resellers are creating artificial demand for Lego sets.  Further, taking a set from say 2004, and looking at its appreciation and comparing it to expected appreciation from 2012 on is not really valid given the apparent changes in the resell market.  We won't see the true effects of the current resell climate until a few years from now, but it will be interesting to see what happens.  My vote is the increase number of resellers will be what would hurt the secondary market.

As they like to say in fine print somewhere else: past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The thing I like about lego - worst comes to worst, i will have plenty of bricks to spent time during retirement :-) (assuming I will have any money left for food)

My main concern will be the dodgy counterfeit minifig knockoffs. Others aren't concerned but I certainly am as I see more and more in different markets. It is easy to sit back and expect them to break and people to replace them with legit sets, but it still will affect sales.

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As they like to say in fine print somewhere else: past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The thing I like about lego - worst comes to worst, i will have plenty of bricks to spent time during retirement :-) (assuming I will have any money left for food)

 

I like it!  If a stock busts, you have a napkin.  If Lego goes bust, you have creations to make

I like it!  If a stock busts, you have a napkin.  If Lego goes bust, you have creations to make

And it is still hard for me to imagine scenario where you won't get at least MSRP price back (even accounting for fees), and assuming that you enter the position at below MSRP, liquidating at slightly above MSRP still compensates inflation.

 

How things looked like for resellers during 2009-2011? I would imagine people had less disposable income available - did it have significant effect?

add another item.

 

Over-production of sets (supply vs. demand).

 

This was the last chain opened that opened the TLG's floodgates of problems that nearly closed the company.  some of 2001, all of 2002, and some of 2003.

This... think baseball cards, Hot Wheels, etc.

I voted other as I think the main issues are longer product cycles and sheer quantity produced. China will soon feel the pinch once people can afford better than their fake crap.

Too many resellers is what's hurting me most. I listed a discontinued set a week back, in this time four people have all undercut me. This set was an exclusive and there were no discounts available. People are selling for small profits just to undercut the next.

my biggest worry is gf (family members for others) wanting to open up a set to build.  now I always consider the first set hers