Sorry if a bit off topic, but do you guys think that the Black Gate will share the same fate as weathertop? High retail price, arguably weak build, set driven by minifigures? Thanks

I just looked on brickset and it shows retirement as 21st of February 2013.  I would say the yoy increase is not bad relative to it's starting price in brick picker guide, though below RRP.  Noting that most of these sets are below RRP when they retire, sparing a few anomalies.  Looking for a continuation of that would put it in feb 2015 at an estimated 76.19 each.  From retirement to that date would be an "gross" increase of 71.31%.  Over RRP, which is what I measure from, this set may need two more years before I will sell.  My sale price will be somewhere around 120.  Most people get figgity on this or any other set and thus I think by that point these figures will be realistic.

A: I think the Black Gate was not nearly as produced as Weathertop. It seems to be disappearing from stores before retirement. Weathertop, even though it retired in Feb, was basically still avail on many retailers shelves for MSRP during this Christmas season. So it hasn't even had a chance to appreciate yet.

 

That being said, considering both were the same MSRP, I think Black Gate will perform better in the long term. But I think Weathertop will end up doing just fine, probably setting around $100.

Another plus to Black Gate will be people needing 2 "gates" to make it more film accurate (or just less wimpy). Which means more people will look to buy the gate alone online from someone who has parted it out, which means more boxes opened and all that jazz.

I guess you didn't add in the labor cost, time, sales fees, shipping fees .. ect .. But BUY FOR $100 sell for $110 .. bam zip zap $10 profit all day long over and over soo ezzz

supraboy?  

I can't help but think that only the Tower of Orthanc was worth buying in this theme, especially the first editions with posters like mine. Performance on the lesser sets in the UK has been dire and I'm so glad I returned the 100 Orc Forges last Summer and 10 Pirate Ships last week. The Weathertops I bought for

The LOTR sets are appreciating so slow they're actually starting to go backwards.

lol, then why has my lego investment which is almost entirely LOTR based doubled in the last 6 months?

Different country, different secondary market.  Not to mention LOTR investments should probably continue to be held to realize better returns.  They have just started to retire over the last 5-6 months or so. 

I can't help but think that only the Tower of Orthanc was worth buying in this theme, especially the first editions with posters like mine. Performance on the lesser sets in the UK has been dire and I'm so glad I returned the 100 Orc Forges last Summer and 10 Pirate Ships last week. The Weathertops I bought for

I guess LotR is just not that big in UK? In US I can't imagine people returning the orc forge and pirate ship if bought with good discount. I mean its a ship with tons of minifigs from a great franchise. I'm not saying big profit margin but if that is not one of the safer bets then I don't what is. 

Surprisingly this set has some success on ebay europe: $58 in the USA, but

Edited September 24, 201411 yr by biniou

I made the mistake of buying all LOTR sets where I should've just stuck with Helm's Deep.  LOTR has a lot of fans in the UK but, a lot of the sets aren't as good as they could've been IMHO.  I'm hoping to at leat break even this Xmas.

When I look at ebay Germany there are only a few listed from about 80 Euro and up. So this should pan out ok after a while.

I made the mistake of buying all LOTR sets where I should've just stuck with Helm's Deep.  LOTR has a lot of fans in the UK but, a lot of the sets aren't as good as they could've been IMHO.  I'm hoping to at leat break even this Xmas.

 

Were you not finding very good sales on these?  These were often readily found in the US for 50% - 75% off, so getting some good profit over here on the smaller sets won't be an issue.

I'm going to a local store to get some 9474 helm's deep and some 9472 weathertop before they definitely disappear.

In other toy shops, I've been told that LOTR sets have been returned to lego... they did not sell very well.

 

I'm sad I never saw the 9472 on discount (well, at least it means less investors for this one).

I like to be an investor but I also like to provide old sets to fans (because I'm an AFOL too and I like to be able to get old sets I wasn't aware of), that's why I feel like it's my duty to get some 9472... lol

Edited September 24, 201411 yr by biniou

Were you not finding very good sales on these?  These were often readily found in the US for 50% - 75% off, so getting some good profit over here on the smaller sets won't be an issue.

 

Once again, i think the best way to play this brickvesting game is popular licensed themes, at least a year old, on clearance.

 

Star wars (OT), Other hit movies, Comics, Cartoons, Etc.

 

If the subject matter ALREADY has a built in fan base, then they're going to want a Lego version.

 

If you hold out for 30-70% off, you're going to do well, but you have to be patient, and you have to wait out retailers like TRU keeping something on the shelves. 

 

Drives me crazy when people ask why a certain set has a low CAGR, yet they know its still on store shelves across the US. The certainly slowed Weathertop, but once they're truly all gone. (people still report seeing them) they'll start to really move.

Once again, i think the best way to play this brickvesting game is popular licensed themes, at least a year old, on clearance.

 

Star wars (OT), Other hit movies, Comics, Cartoons, Etc.

 

If the subject matter ALREADY has a built in fan base, then they're going to want a Lego version.

 

If you hold out for 30-70% off, you're going to do well, but you have to be patient, and you have to wait out retailers like TRU keeping something on the shelves. 

 

Drives me crazy when people ask why a certain set has a low CAGR, yet they know its still on store shelves across the US. The certainly slowed Weathertop, but once they're truly all gone. (people still report seeing them) they'll start to really move.

 

Agreed - I think with continued patience those that got them at a nice discount (I think many folks bought in at $40 or so, give or take) will see good returns. This Christmas season should give a better indication of which early LOTR sets are going to appreciate the most as we'll get a good look at EOL demand. I'm happy to sit on the ones I have for another year or so...selling now to break even seems crazy to me (I know everyone's situation is different, but I'd let my retired sets breathe a little before bailing)

Were you not finding very good sales on these?  These were often readily found in the US for 50% - 75% off, so getting some good profit over here on the smaller sets won't be an issue.

 

Prices in the UK were much higher than yours and discounts were poor most of the time. Also a US seller can undercut a UK seller quite easily with this theme even with international postage.  3-for-2 is a treat in the UK never mind -50/75% ;-)

Prices in the UK were much higher than yours and discounts were poor most of the time. Also a US seller can undercut a UK seller quite easily with this theme even with international postage.  3-for-2 is a treat in the UK never mind -50/75% ;-)

 

Yeah well enjoy your free healthcare and better music.

Prices have appreciated 100% on this set compared to what I bought at. That's a winner in my book.

Yeah well enjoy your free healthcare and better music.

 

Our "free" heathcare sucks, we have many thousands dying in pain while on waiting lists.  Most of us also have to obtain separate health insurance like you guys whether on our own or through an employer.  Music... I think the standards are the same on both sides. ;-)

Well finally I got 2 of these (and 2 Helm's deep). Just in case.