what do you think it's going to happen after next Christmas?

Personal viewpoint only, but I think it will get a nice bump post-EOL and then level off and rise slowly. I'm encouraged by the growth of UG but thought/hoped HD would be doing a little (not a ton) better. As the flagship perhaps its growth pace will be somewhere between those two sets. I'd be happy to see TH type results, though, but I think it will be solid but unspectacular.

I think this will have Arkham Asylum type growth. Jump up $100 pretty quick and a slow climb from there. 

 

In the future, we can expect to see more and more retired sets being cloned by knock-off brands and, as 3d printing develops, there will surely come a time when people are able to make their own retired sets/parts at home.

This may be partly true, but look at the premium people are willing to pay for a NISB set compared to a used set with instructions and box. People want the box, they want the instructions, and they want it new.

I think this will have Arkham Asylum type growth. Jump up $100 pretty quick and a slow climb from there. 

I think it will do better than AA. ToO has a better ratio per piece, more impressive, not a remake ...and less stored !

Edited June 17, 201510 yr by fondkick

I think it will do better than AA. ToO has a better ratio per piece, more impressive, not a remake ...and less stored !

Arkham is doing quite well. Lowest on amz is $315 shipped, nearly double mspr in 9 months after retirement. Thinking the Tower will double even quicker is very optimistic in the current climate. Plenty of people are going to be happy to make $100 on this set, just as they are with arkham. I think there are more Batman fans buying legos than there are lotr fans too.

As far as less stored, who really knows. Tower has been getting mass horded for months now. Every time is comes into stock investors wipe it out. When like this on target and amz for months, now with LEGO Shop at Home. Arkham vanished pretty quickly, never really did the dance like this. If the tower lingers for a few more months it could really be heavily horded if it's not already. fwiw both are good investments. 

 

Edited June 17, 201510 yr by marcandre

Arkham is doing quite well. Lowest on amz is $315 shipped, nearly double mspr in 9 months after retirement. Thinking the Tower will double even quicker is very optimistic in the current climate. Plenty of people are going to be happy to make $100 on this set, just as they are with arkham. I think there are more Batman fans buying legos than there are lotr fans too.

As far as less stored, who really knows. Arkham has been getting mass horded for months now. Every time is comes into stock investors wipe it out. When like this on target and amz for months, now with LEGO Shop at Home. Arkham vanished pretty quickly, never really did the dance like this. If the tower lingers for a few more months it could really be heavily horded if it's not already. fwiw both are good investments. 

 

yeap, but in EU you can only sell it for 220€ (buy 160€) so only 60€ is not a good climb if you see the other exclusives ;-)

 

this seems to be a lingering set in B&Ms, seems the demand for hobbit/lotr has slowed to a halt since the movies ended.

Expected ship date of July 14th on US LEGO Shop at Home, have not seen that in a while.  will have to see if its as big a run as EU got, and what happens when it sells out...

yeap, but in EU you can only sell it for 220€ (buy 160€) so only 60€ is not a good climb if you see the other exclusives ;-)

 

I'm hopping to get more value of mines next christmas

"Sold out" in US LEGO Shop at Home

"Sold out" in US LEGO Shop at Home

I have a feeling this one won't go "death star" on us, so it's probably done.  So, this is good to hear, because I've been waiting for this to happen, and thought it was going to happen in march after they went out during the 2xvip period..

An even more telling sign is they removed the "Lord of the Rings" category on their site.

Edited July 24, 201510 yr by fossilrock

Do you guys think this can be a new Monster House?

No.....

Do you mean Haunted House?  I don't know. This set has a lot of people holding extra copies, myself included.  So, I think it's going to be a while before it has decent returns.

Yep sorry Haunted House. 

Not to HH level, but I believe it will do pretty good by most standards.

Looks like there are close to 100 sellers on amazon for this set...  It's going to be a while before this one does anything, I think. But this is the first exclusive of the year that I think is officially "retired", because once they removed the Lord of the Rings link from their site, that was a telling sign that it is not coming back, and I suspect it will get a retirement tag soon. 

This set did have a nice slow phaseout though, but it will be interesting to see how many resellers are still on ebay and amazon by years end.  If there are still 80 or more, then I think it's going to be one of those sets to stash deep in the closet.

Personally, I think this is the coolest set lego has done and by far one of my absolute favorite sets made.

I'm hoping the smaller LOTR/Hobbit sets start to appreciate as they become more and more scarce.  That, in turn, might create more demand for this set in a couple of years.  The theme has been overall underwhelming, but could see some nice appreciation once sets become hard to find and Tolkien fans discover them.  I agree though, it will take time.

yes we've heard it over and over again from Emazers & others. "Good things come to those who wait"

I'm hoping the smaller LOTR/Hobbit sets start to appreciate as they become more and more scarce.  That, in turn, might create more demand for this set in a couple of years.  The theme has been overall underwhelming, but could see some nice appreciation once sets become hard to find and Tolkien fans discover them.  I agree though, it will take time.

I have one last Weathertop that has been the bane of my existence. Ok, that may be a little harsh. Hoping good things with ToO. I have two and that's enough for me.

I have one last Weathertop that has been the bane of my existence. Ok, that may be a little harsh. Hoping good things with ToO. I have two and that's enough for me.

Wargs and weathertop were poor investment choices for me, too.  Oh well, can't win them all but you can learn from them all.

ToO is one of my personal favorites.  I think it will do well as has good "display" potential as something a little different (although not sure how many others share my opinion).

Will be very interesting to see how this one does after a couple of years of retirement.

Package those less desirable sets with better ones and at least recoup MSRP. 

This set will do great - I can't see how anyone would think otherwise.

Package those less desirable sets with better ones and at least recoup MSRP. 

I missed out on the original run at this and have had little success finding anything close to MSRP in the UK.  

I think these sets have the legs to do well.  Great theme behind it which is a key.  The books will be constantly generating new fans and honestly think this ones better focused at the AFOLs.