Are we overestimating the popularity of this line.  They dumped 6 sets on us in the first wave and the subsequent wave came with 3 sets.  If this line is a printing press, what are they slowing down, it doesn't make sense they wouldn't shove more down our throats?

Are you referring to the Hobbit or LOTR? I assume Hobbit, but there are 4 sets in the next wave: 79011, 79012, 79013, and 79014. LOTR has 5 sets out now: 10237, 79005, 79006, 79007, and 79008.

 

Looks like Quacs beat me to it... 

Edited October 30, 201312 yr by c666187

I apologize for neglecting the Wizard battle and the Tower for LOTR.  I'm looking in the science of this, 25-30% are online so Brick and Mortar is still a good indicator.  My point is there is only 100 Lego store that you can get the Tower.  The first wave had 6 sets at Target and 5 sets at Walmart, that number went down to 4 apiece in the second wave.  The lost of shelf space in square footage is around 35-40% at both retailer.  The worst thing about it is, these LOTR set is not place on the power shelf at both retailers.  You have 4700 Walmart and 1800 Target in the country, that's a big number.  The general public might not like LOTR that well?

 

The fact they marked down HD in conjunct with GKB at 35% in the middle of the summer to clear out space on top of the Black Tower and Pirate Ship marked down 30% 1 out every 4 Target is a little errie to me.  There are plenty of great ideas to have sets in the 120-130 price point.  One can wonder why they decided against releasing one for this xmas.  

 

I do have quite a bit invested in the first wave.  I don't think this line will be Atlantis or Prince of Persia.  I'm not losing sleep over it, but those facts make me cautiously optimistic about this line.

I apologize for neglecting the Wizard battle and the Tower for LOTR.  I'm looking in the science of this, 25-30% are online so Brick and Mortar is still a good indicator.  My point is there is only 100 Lego store that you can get the Tower.  The first wave had 6 sets at Target and 5 sets at Walmart, that number went down to 4 apiece in the second wave.  The lost of shelf space in square footage is around 35-40% at both retailer.  The worst thing about it is, these LOTR set is not place on the power shelf at both retailers.  You have 4700 Walmart and 1800 Target in the country, that's a big number.  The general public might not like LOTR that well?

 

The fact they marked down HD in conjunct with GKB at 35% in the middle of the summer to clear out space on top of the Black Tower and Pirate Ship marked down 30% 1 out every 4 Target is a little errie to me.  There are plenty of great ideas to have sets in the 120-130 price point.  One can wonder why they decided against releasing one for this xmas.  

 

I do have quite a bit invested in the first wave.  I don't think this line will be Atlantis or Prince of Persia.  I'm not losing sleep over it, but those facts make me cautiously optimistic about this line.

 

In reality, we're all just speculating here.  I like the LOTR line because of its worldwide popularity/recognition and because its target market (teens and AFOLs) tend to be passionate about the franchise and have money to spend on collectibles. 

 

I would guess the reason the number of sets offered decreased is because there's no movie right now driving sales of this theme, and because MoM and Shelob Attacks could last another year, filling those "holes" on the shelf.

 

I think we need to see EOL for six months to a year before jumping off the bandwagon, and even if the first wave is marginal I think Pirate Ship Ambush and Orthanc will still be strong performers.

While I appreciate the attempt to find scientific ways to determine a set's EOL/popularity, if shelf space determined either the Death Star would have retired 5 years ago.

I think that most of the first wave sets will perform quite good. We have to wait and see what will be the sets for 2014, but we won't be seeing that many uruk-hais anymore (except for amon hen if the rumor is true). That should boost the value of Helm's deep and the uruk army. MoM is also a nice set with the Cave troll and Boromir.

I apologize for neglecting the Wizard battle and the Tower for LOTR.  I'm looking in the science of this, 25-30% are online so Brick and Mortar is still a good indicator.  My point is there is only 100 Lego store that you can get the Tower.  The first wave had 6 sets at Target and 5 sets at Walmart, that number went down to 4 apiece in the second wave.  The lost of shelf space in square footage is around 35-40% at both retailer.  The worst thing about it is, these LOTR set is not place on the power shelf at both retailers.  You have 4700 Walmart and 1800 Target in the country, that's a big number.  The general public might not like LOTR that well?

 

The fact they marked down HD in conjunct with GKB at 35% in the middle of the summer to clear out space on top of the Black Tower and Pirate Ship marked down 30% 1 out every 4 Target is a little errie to me.  There are plenty of great ideas to have sets in the 120-130 price point.  One can wonder why they decided against releasing one for this xmas.  

 

I do have quite a bit invested in the first wave.  I don't think this line will be Atlantis or Prince of Persia.  I'm not losing sleep over it, but those facts make me cautiously optimistic about this line.

 

im super happy with the LOTR series, the avg joe LEGO fan may not like it but there is certainly a market out there for it just like harry potter. Just look at the sets that have retired, weathertop is about $65 and it retired like 6 months ago, orc forge is $65-75 it retired 3 months, urak hai army is $30-35 and it retired less than a month ago, HD is selling for $110-115 and it retired about a week ago, give it 6 mo it will be at $150, 1-2 years it will easily be $200-250. I expect almost all LOTR sets to have a similar 2-3x retail price.

 

I have noticed LOTR being taken off wal mart shelves near me but every store near me has reduced their LEGO aisle to half its size as well, maybe lego is selling poorly, maybe they need room for other toys since its christmas season, maybe they need room for shovles since its winter, i dont know why they are doing it but i do know LOTR, in particular HD will be a good investment, i personally am still buying them when i manage to find them.

I can say as a collector that I want every blasted one of these sets for Lord of the Rings and The Hobbit both. Maybe even a couple for a certain few either simply for parts and/or army building. If it wasn't the book/film tie-in then there is the Castle'ness of everything and I love the heck out of that line as I am sure some others do too. Excelsior! :D

im super happy with the LOTR series, the avg joe LEGO fan may not like it but there is certainly a market out there for it just like harry potter. Just look at the sets that have retired, weathertop is about $65 and it retired like 6 months ago, orc forge is $65-75 it retired 3 months, urak hai army is $30-35 and it retired less than a month ago, HD is selling for $110-115 and it retired about a week ago, give it 6 mo it will be at $150, 1-2 years it will easily be $200-250. I expect almost all LOTR sets to have a similar 2-3x retail price.

 

I have noticed LOTR being taken off wal mart shelves near me but every store near me has reduced their LEGO aisle to half its size as well, maybe lego is selling poorly, maybe they need room for other toys since its christmas season, maybe they need room for shovles since its winter, i dont know why they are doing it but i do know LOTR, in particular HD will be a good investment, i personally am still buying them when i manage to find them.

 

Just remember you dont buy what "you like" when investing .. you purchase things other people will like if you want to make the $$$$$$

Just remember you dont buy what "you like" when investing .. you purchase things other people will like if you want to make the $$$$$$

Agreed, thats why despite the fact that i like star wars i avoid investing in it like it was the plague.

I don't resell much but I got out of the dark ages back in July / August due to the LOTR line. I told myself I was only collecting LOTR and Hobbit sets but it has quickly snowballed into buying anything that was 40-50% off... I need a bigger house to store my crap.

I don't resell much but I got out of the dark ages back in July / August due to the LOTR line. I told myself I was only collecting LOTR and Hobbit sets but it has quickly snowballed into buying anything that was 40-50% off... I need a bigger house to store my crap.

Haha, another one falls to Lego's diabolical plan <insert evil laugh> ;)

There will be new Hobbit sets but LOTR is done.  It didn't sell well with kids, according to a source I talked with.

There will be new Hobbit sets but LOTR is done.  It didn't sell well with kids, according to a source I talked with.

yeah i wouldnt be surprised, the movies are for a teenage or older audience imo. Plus legos timing was pretty poor, they should have released them for either the first movie or waited for the second hobbit movie, not randomly in between.

There will be new Hobbit sets but LOTR is done.  It didn't sell well with kids, according to a source I talked with.

 

Without actual proof i call BS on that....  until july 2014 hits and there is actually no LOTR sets on shelves (or August/June whatever) I simply refuse to believe that.

yeah i wouldnt be surprised, the movies are for a teenage or older audience imo. Plus legos timing was pretty poor, they should have released them for either the first movie or waited for the second hobbit movie, not randomly in between.

It was not randomly in between, it was 6 months before the first Hobbit movie right when the trailers were released to generate interest.

But I can understand that it may not appeal to younger kids.

Without actual proof i call BS on that....  until july 2014 hits and there is actually no LOTR sets on shelves (or August/June whatever) I simply refuse to believe that.

 

Im pretty sure there was already confirmation in the other direction that there were going to be new sets. I thought these sold pretty well considering only a few ever even had to hit retiring soon before they sold out.

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yeah i wouldnt be surprised, the movies are for a teenage or older audience imo. Plus legos timing was pretty poor, they should have released them for either the first movie or waited for the second hobbit movie, not randomly in between.

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I don't think any parents in the right mind would let their kids watch the LOTR movies. I'm sure Gollum gave plenty of little kids nightmares.

Same goes with the new Lego movie with those psychodalic color and creepy designs.

There will be new Hobbit sets but LOTR is done.  It didn't sell well with kids, according to a source I talked with.

Without actual proof i call BS on that....  until july 2014 hits and there is actually no LOTR sets on shelves (or August/June whatever) I simply refuse to believe that.

I would have to side with Alcarin on this one. We have a preliminary list for more Lord of the Rings sets in 2014. A rumor at this moment in time, of course, but so has everything else been. Honestly, I have heard the "it didn't sell well with kids" too many times now for an assortment of themes and sets so please pardon me for not taking that statement seriously.

Wasn't asking for anyone to take sides or call BS on me.  A national sales rep told me that, perhaps this person was including the rumored sets as the "last wave."  I have no trouble believing that they didn't sell as well with kids.  Most kids were probably babies when the movies came out.

Have to say if LOTR retires it might be fun seeing where it goes money wise.... but without gondor soldiers and so on it might take off alot of appeal to collect... basically for us army lovers the only option is to go and recreate Battle of Helm's Deep with hundreds of Uruks!

Wasn't asking for anyone to take sides or call BS on me.  A national sales rep told me that, perhaps this person was including the rumored sets as the "last wave."  I have no trouble believing that they didn't sell as well with kids.  Most kids were probably babies when the movies came out.

 

Its well known that majority of LEGO employees no little to nothing about TLG plans so its hard to believe this guy even if he is right LEGO emplees have a history of having no better guess than if we make it around here lol

The amount of days until 9474 is 100% retired is inversely proportional to the length of a piece of string.  That's the most accurate information I have right now.

The amount of days until 9474 is 100% retired is inversely proportional to the length of a piece of string.  That's the most accurate information I have right now.

Dont forget to multiple by pi and divide by the rotation of the moon, accounting for a lunar eclipse.

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I don't think any parents in the right mind would let their kids watch the LOTR movies. I'm sure Gollum gave plenty of little kids nightmares.

Same goes with the new Lego movie with those psychodalic color and creepy designs.

Careful on the parents comment, low. My two sons absolutely love the LOTR series, and they are only 9 and 10 now. They started watching them when they were pretty little shooters and never complained once about being scared or having nightmares. So, as I do consider myself to be in the 'right mind', I think every kid will react differently to movies of this caliber. My boys are beside themselves excited for the new release. Anyway....back to buying more HD's!

I'm 38 and I can't watch the Shelob scene, or the spiders scene in HarrybPotter and Chamber of Secrets.

Gollum, not a problem.

I think I might have a problem with the next hobbit movie :(