Hi,

 

sorry for bothering with a beginners question.

I started investing into Lego sets about 11 month ago in Nov. 2012. Meanwhile I have stored about 50 MISB sets with a value of about 5000 Euro. Currently I don't have any spare money to invest, so I am considering to start selling some sets and reinvest the money. I don't realy know if this is a good idea or if I should just wait for the prices to go up!?

 

Currently I could sell the following sets with a profit > 50%

 

2 x 10219 Maersk Train (could sell with 105% profit)

2 x 9496 MF Zombies (could sell with 100% profit)

1 x 10193 Medieval Market Village  (could sell with 80% profit)

2 x 21016 Sungnyemun (could sell with 131% profit)

2 x 41999 Crawler (could sell with 100% profit)

 

What do you think? Start selling or wait... another year!?

 

Actually I don't need any (additional) money right now, so it would be ok to wait... I just would love to buy new stuff...

 

We talk a lot about CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Ration) on here.  It is the best thing to consider when selling a set.  

 

Lets do some simple math with the Maersk Train.

 

If you bought it one year ago for $100, you can now sell it for over $200.  (CAGR of 100%)

 

To repeat the same success with this set you would need to now double $200.  So the major question is, will the Maersk Train be worth $400 in a year?  I would tend to say no, but it all depends on what the market demand is.

 

If I was sitting on more than one Maersk Train, I would sell, but I am keeping mine for my collection.  

 

If you do decide to sell, you will be able to buy a bigger set, or more sets with the new money you brought in.  This will allow you to continue to expand your money, as well as your inventory.

 

Good luck, and as always, you have to SELL a set, to turn a profit.

I would go this way - I am a fan of reinvesting, but you have to be careful because who knows that what you pick will be a winner.

 

Train - Keep - still rising and gonna keep going.

Zombies - I like holding this set just to see, but I think you could live with a sell here because it may have plateaued.)

10193 - Sell

Sungnyemun - there isn't a lot of relevant data on Arch sets yet and their long term performance, I would lean towards sell.

41999 - KEEP. No reason I see at all to throw away a potential $800-$1000 set in a few years.

If you don't need the money to buy new stuff I'm not sure why you wouldn't wait.

I agree

 

I would go this way - I am a fan of reinvesting, but you have to be careful because who knows that what you pick will be a winner.

 

Train - Keep - still rising and gonna keep going.

Zombies - I like holding this set just to see, but I think you could live with a sell here because it may have plateaued.)

10193 - Sell

Sungnyemun - there isn't a lot of relevant data on Arch sets yet and their long term performance, I would lean towards sell.

41999 - KEEP. No reason I see at all to throw away a potential $800-$1000 set in a few years.

I agree thats what I would do.

zombies - absolutelly yes for selling - this set has already reached the peak - it can rise, but not so much

10193 - keep it - this set was selling many years, so you need to wait more time for its growth

maersk train - hard to say. Big growth after quick EOL, but now is rising very slowly. Anyway, I think this set has a big potential (300 usd and more), but hard to say when exactly. I would wait and not sell it under 300 usd.

41999 - hard to predict. This set has reached 500 usd extremly soon, now it has a stable value. It can stay in this price a long time, but probably can go higher - it is a limited edition.

2 x 10219 Maersk Train (could sell with 105% profit) - prob hold another 6 months to a year, it went up quickly but then has been stagnant around $200, its the most realistic cargo train every built by lego but at the same time its a cargo train, doesn't have a whole lot of apeal to collects when compared to say the emerald night.

 

2 x 9496 MF Zombies (could sell with 100% profit) - this has prob peaked, there are many other zombie figs out there with other monsters sets. Just a guess but listing after the walking dead tv show on oct 15th but before Halloween would be a great time to sell this set.

 

1 x 10193 Medieval Market Village  (could sell with 80% profit) - Hold onto this, it was run a long time so the stockpile out there is large which is why it hasent gone up in value much but its a very iconic and loved set, once the surplus of these sets goes dry in the next few years this will be a hot set, its the "modular building" of the castle series

I would go this way - I am a fan of reinvesting, but you have to be careful because who knows that what you pick will be a winner.

 

Train - Keep - still rising and gonna keep going.

Zombies - I like holding this set just to see, but I think you could live with a sell here because it may have plateaued.)

10193 - Sell

Sungnyemun - there isn't a lot of relevant data on Arch sets yet and their long term performance, I would lean towards sell.

41999 - KEEP. No reason I see at all to throw away a potential $800-$1000 set in a few years.

 

Just my 2cts, I bought 2 Sungnyemuns yesterday for 34$, put one for sale yesterday to see how it would perform at 62$ in it's already got a bid. Architecture is clearly axed towards a more mature audience so I usually try to only buy them heavily discounted but it wouldn't be the first Architecutre set I sell with a profit.

 

I made a decent flip with a Villa Savoye I bought for 60 and sold for 90...

I decided this week to keep my remaining 41999s for the long haul.  However, I have one with a slightly damaged box so, I may build that one of at least check its licence plate.  If or when it's ready to sell, I'll ask for

I would wait to sell most of the sets if that is not a problem. Some of the sets are still rising in value.

For the other stuff, I agree with DNIIM.

 

Can't go wrong with that (thats a lie you can totally go wrong with that)

I had not expected that there is such a clear opinion on this topic here in the forum.
Conclusion, it is best if I sell the sets right now and  store them at the same time.

All kidding aside.
Thank you for your thoughts and advice.

Actually, I should have guessed that there is no clear answer to my question.
No one can tell the ideal time to sell a set; everyone has their own experiences and ideas about this. Maybe for some sets ( like zombies ) I have missed the ideal time already... yes there are people who even told me that I have already missed the peak for selling the 41999, according to rumors there will possibly be a second wave of it, again limited to 20,000 units, in the very near future...

Who knows

I had not expected that there is such a clear opinion on this topic here in the forum.

Conclusion, it is best if I sell the sets right now and  store them at the same time.

All kidding aside.

Thank you for your thoughts and advice.

Actually, I should have guessed that there is no clear answer to my question.

No one can tell the ideal time to sell a set; everyone has their own experiences and ideas about this. Maybe for some sets ( like zombies ) I have missed the ideal time already... yes there are people who even told me that I have already missed the peak for selling the 41999, according to rumors there will possibly be a second wave of it, again limited to 20,000 units, in the very near future...

Who knows