Evem at 30% off.  I've stumbled across a bunch of Escapes, Attack of Wars, Unexpected Gathering, Riddle for the Ring and Goblin King Battle at 30% off.  Picked up some but I'm returning them all minus the 2 Riddle for the Ring I bought.

 

Also not a believer in Mines of Moria.  I will probably keep 1 for myself but the rest are going back.  Even at 30%.

Okay...any specific reason why? I think if anything, the Unexpected Gathering will do well and I think the Barrell Escape at 30% off is a strong deal. But everyone has their own preferences and opinions just want to hear yours.

You will be kicking yourself once AUG retires. That will be money-maker set, especially at 30%. Care to share where you were able to get it for 30% off?

Its funny I have to keep saying - you can pick up unexpected gathering on Ebay for under $50 - there are no listings right now, but I have seen several:

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/LEGO-The-Hobbit-An-Unexpected-Gathering-79003-Brand-New-Sealed-/281153142836?pt=Building_Toys_US&hash=item4176088034

 

This title reminded me of that Family guy episode where Peter just says:

 

I did not like the God Father.

As the others have said, I would be interested in hearing why you don't like them as investments. There are very few things in life where you don't need an explanation of why you don't like them. Megabloks and rotten eggs being some of those things.

One thing I would like to aks is: Why is there so much separation between the Hobbit and LOTR? I feel like the sets are aimed at the same audience, have a ton in common and are basically the same theme. It seems as if a lot of people on here say "I love LOTR but hate the Hobbit". I am not trying to hate, just wonder why this is. On that same note, if we do want to separate themes, why not Star Wars? To be honest the Hobbit and LOTR are MUCH MORE CLOSELY related then the Original Trilogy and the Prequels --- totally different target audiences as these movies came out 25 years apart. OT is typically my generation and Prequels are the youngsters. Clone Wars has almost nothing to do with the OT. Not saying you can't like all three, but if we are going to use "Sub-themes" these seem like much more likely candidates...anyways...sorry...end rant.

Evem at 30% off.  I've stumbled across a bunch of Escapes, Attack of Wars, Unexpected Gathering, Riddle for the Ring and Goblin King Battle at 30% off.  Picked up some but I'm returning them all minus the 2 Riddle for the Ring I bought.

 

Also not a believer in Mines of Moria.  I will probably keep 1 for myself but the rest are going back.  Even at 30%.

Trolling?

 

Trolling?

 

Trying to give the benefit of the doubt here, so not directed at you MattK. --- I think in certain areas these sets aren't selling well even at a discount so people are kind of turned off. It is a hard concept for some to grasp that things will be on shelves and widely available one day, then 6 months later you can sell them over and over again at twice what they were selling for originally.

Evem at 30% off.  I've stumbled across a bunch of Escapes, Attack of Wars, Unexpected Gathering, Riddle for the Ring and Goblin King Battle at 30% off.  Picked up some but I'm returning them all minus the 2 Riddle for the Ring I bought.

 

Also not a believer in Mines of Moria.  I will probably keep 1 for myself but the rest are going back.  Even at 30%.

 

I am with you on mines of moria. It will gain, but not enough for an investment.

I am with you on mines of moria. It will gain, but not enough for an investment.

Why not? I think it is a pretty strong set...

Reasons:

 

Right now, even at 30% off, they are flat.  There seems to be oversupply even at that price. 

 

Online, there is a big supply on most items whether it is ebay, amazon, big box retailers etc at or near 30% off. 

 

I expect the EOL on these sets to be far off.  The EOL on the line is especially far off with 2 more movies coming out.  That means the real appreciation, which happens at or near the EOL, is a long ways off.

 

So when I say I don't like the set...it means I don't like it NOW at 30% off.  Maybe in the closer to EOL, but right now there are better sets to get.   Now is just not the time to buy at 30% off.

The same could be said for Uruk-Hai Army, Shelob Attacks, and Gandalf Arrives, but you didn't mention those...

The same could be said for Uruk-Hai Army, Shelob Attacks, and Gandalf Arrives, but you didn't mention those...

 

Those are all LOTR sets. 

Reasons:

 

Right now, even at 30% off, they are flat.  There seems to be oversupply even at that price. 

 

Online, there is a big supply on most items whether it is ebay, amazon, big box retailers etc at or near 30% off. 

 

I expect the EOL on these sets to be far off.  The EOL on the line is especially far off with 2 more movies coming out.  That means the real appreciation, which happens at or near the EOL, is a long ways off.

 

So when I say I don't like the set...it means I don't like it NOW at 30% off.  Maybe in the closer to EOL, but right now there are better sets to get.   Now is just not the time to buy at 30% off.

So you do not like any of the Hobbit sets until the entire line goes EOL?

Those are all LOTR sets. 

I am aware of that... but you also mentioned MoM. And the theme is sort of besides the point, which is that there are plenty of sets out there that are valued below retail and see lots of sales.

"I don't like The Hobbit"

 

Until much nearer EOL. 

 

Personal reasons - most of the sets are boring too.  And its not a very interesting subtheme.

 

More logical reasons - Right now there is just too much supply and EOL is too far away.  I don't see it appreciating for awhile.

I want to point out that while a set is still in production by large retailers and discounted by those retailers, of course it drives the price down. If you are investing in sets on the other hand, you are holding the sets not selling them while they are still in production. This is the different between a reseller and an investor IMO. 

 

Those are all LOTR sets. 

When Brian said that, I think he was pointing out that there are other sets that you didn't mention that have below-MSRP values on eBay currently, and that you are targeting the Hobbit sets and are ignoring other themes that have quite similar patterns of growth/sales.

 

I expect the EOL on these sets to be far off.  The EOL on the line is especially far off with 2 more movies coming out.  That means the real appreciation, which happens at or near the EOL, is a long ways off.

 

So when I say I don't like the set...it means I don't like it NOW at 30% off.  Maybe in the closer to EOL, but right now there are better sets to get.   Now is just not the time to buy at 30% off.

Sets do retire while the movies haven't been released you know. Take a look at Star Wars. If TLG decided that no set would retire until all the movies were made, then we would have 1999 sets in 2005! 

 

Most of the sets are boring too.  And its not a very interesting subtheme.

I tend to disagree with this, but I think that you could have just said that you didn't like the sets since they were "boring" instead of making us argue with you on whether or not the sets were a good investment or not.

Until much nearer EOL. 

 

Personal reasons - most of the sets are boring too.  And its not a very interesting subtheme.

 

More logical reasons - Right now there is just too much supply and EOL is too far away.  I don't see it appreciating for awhile.

 

So that would rule you out on investing on any Star Wars anytime soon, correct?

So that would rule you out on investing on any Star Wars anytime soon, correct?

 

No.  Star Wars has a proven track record.  The Hobbit does not.

Why not? I think it is a pretty strong set...

 

I have built it. I wanted it really bad, but I just don't love the set built. It isn't impressive. I have it next to several other LOTR sets and it is not great.

 

Also, the Cave troll doesn't stand up. That figure should have been a $25-$30 figure, but its riding $12-14 because of it.

 

Plus, the set has sat and sat at 30% off everywhere. I think it might be a $80-$90 set some day, but I can't name another LOTR set I don't think it will do better than except maybe Shelob and Gandolf Arrives.

I want to point out that while a set is still in production by large retailers and discounted by those retailers, of course it drives the price down. If you are investing in sets on the other hand, you are holding the sets not selling them while they are still in production. This is the different between a reseller and an investor IMO. 

 

I tend to disagree with this, but I think that you could have just said that you didn't like the sets since they were "boring" instead of making us argue with you on whether or not the sets were a good investment or not.

Much wisdom here.

 

"I don't like The Hobbit"

 

Much comedy here. Too bad I've hit my like limit for the day

No.  Star Wars has a proven track record.  The Hobbit does not.

"Proven track record"... of what? Not being "boring"? BG2001, I would read over some of your posts. You are starting to contradict yourself.

2 years down the line I'm sure there will be hobbit sets we'd all wished we had more of, just like the castles and burrow with Harry potter, just like the ships with P.O.T.C.

 

The question is which sets and when to buy? I personally think there are quite a few turkeys in both Hobbit and Lord of the Rings themes but long term the Unexpected Gathering looks like a winner to me, should be with us well into next year though even with the second wave approaching.

 

 

Stu

 

Until much nearer EOL. 

 

Personal reasons - most of the sets are boring too.  And its not a very interesting subtheme.

 

More logical reasons - Right now there is just too much supply and EOL is too far away.  I don't see it appreciating for awhile.

 

I think your points are valid. I don't agree with them, but the reasons you gave make sense. I like to get sets closer to EOL too (really...doesn't everyone?) And you seem to think you can find a similar discount later down the road...or not, who knows.

Re: reseller v. investor -

 

Being an investor doesn't mean buying something when it is flat and expected to be flat for the forseeable future.  If it doesn't have near term growth prosepects then you might as well have your money in an interest bearing checking account, CD or even just cash.

 

Further, it is smart to lock in a return at the time of purchase.  That means being able to resell it at a profit right away (if you want) or being able to hold it for longer term investments. It doesn't mean you are buying it to resell and not to invest.  You are reducing your risk.