Let me first say that this is by no means a knock on this site. I enjoy this site and it provides a lot of great features you can't get anywhere else.

The sad news for me though is that the way the site has been taking off over the past year has actually had a big impact on me buying less sets for investment purposes. There are so many posts from people who are amassing substantial quantities of sets I would have easily invested in in the past. Now I know some people are just talk and don't really have what they say, but there are plenty who really do have what they claim. Not only are the huge collections concerning, but the vast amount of sets spread 1-5 at a time across multiple investors adds up quickly to an alarming amount of sets that will have to be unloaded after retirement before really significant gains can be realized.

I've said it before, but I think last year's retiring sets will be the last that see really big gains quickly. Yes, there will occasionally be a SE Crawler or The Zombies set that comes along, but those will generally be hard to predict (aside from Crawler situations). In the past, 2-3 years was a pretty standard time frame for a set to reach it's peak after retirement, but I foresee this becoming more like 5-7 with very gradual climbs after a possible initial small jump. With those kinds of holding periods, I just don't see it being as worthwhile anymore.

Obviously, there are many ways to make money at this. I've tried all sorts of ways, and I don't think the method I've settled on is viable going forward. Doing small, quick flips just isn't worth the time and effort for me. All the hoarding that's going on combined with the significantly longer shelf lives of sets is creating an environment where sets will have to be held for far too long to make the returns that make it worthwhile for me. I think the risk vs. reward is skewing in the wrong direction.

In the past, I have purchased at least 5-20 of every set I wanted for investment, and it was a lot of sets. When I see posts about buying dozens of this set and that, I cringe a little. Those posts actually make me buy less of a set than I normally would. In the past, I would have been all over something like The Orc Forge if I knew it was on its way out. I didn't buy a single additional set during all the hype for the set a month or two ago. Will I regret that? Possibly, but I doubt it.

I'm not saying that I'm done buying, collecting, or investing. I will always be a collector. But my days of buying large quantities of everything I want are definitely gone. For investment purposes I'll only be buying quality sets that I can get for at least 30% off, things like BTTF and SE Crawler aside.

Sure. I started this very recently, around Jan of this year and have learnt quite a bit in that period. My first months focused into the traditional buy and hold strategy most of us follow here, hoping to sell in 2-4 years. The need for investment capital pushed me more towards quick flips to fund my long term purchases. Suddenly, the quick flips were producing a lot more money than I thought it could in a very short period of time (say 2 months or so), so I have since shifted most of my attention towards doing that while still purchasing the occasional set for the long term.

 

Basically, diversification.

 

This is a great illustration of how there are many facets to the Lego investment game, and one of the primary reasons I feel good about reselling for the foreseeable future.  There are so many ways to get into this game, and even more ways to tailor a strategy to match both your interests, goals and advantages.  Quick flipping new sets, used sets, minifigures, and buying/holding all of these can all bring returns. 

This is a great illustration of how there are many facets to the Lego investment game, and one of the primary reasons I feel good about reselling for the foreseeable future.  There are so many ways to get into this game, and even more ways to tailor a strategy to match both your interests, goals and advantages.  Quick flipping new sets, used sets, minifigures, and buying/holding all of these can all bring returns. 

Exactly!  Its a market just like any other.  TLG just happens to be "The Fed".  There are so many ways to invest.  But first one must have a goal, without that, floundering will commence.  

Sure. I started this very recently, around Jan of this year and have learnt quite a bit in that period. My first months focused into the traditional buy and hold strategy most of us follow here, hoping to sell in 2-4 years. The need for investment capital pushed me more towards quick flips to fund my long term purchases. Suddenly, the quick flips were producing a lot more money than I thought it could in a very short period of time (say 2 months or so), so I have since shifted most of my attention towards doing that while still purchasing the occasional set for the long term.

 

Basically, diversification.

 

this is exactly what I did too!

 

At first I was buying Lego for long term. Realized I had too much capital held up for long term, needed some quick flips for more cash (if you watch Fast ****** Loud on Discovery, my life is almost like a continuous episode of this right now.. lol). Ended up buying things other than Lego that I quick flipped and made a ton of money on (e.***. I bought some software for 7 dollars and flipped it for 500 on eBay LOL). Now I've definitely blown way past the "taxman won't get me" line so I rolled the ebay thing into a sub division into my corporation and now run an online selling business on top of my IT consulting/contracting work. 

 

Life does move pretty fast.

Exactly!  Its a market just like any other.  TLG just happens to be "The Fed".  There are so many ways to invest.  But first one must have a goal, without that, floundering will commence.  

 

Agreed - frankly, I bet there are a lot of people that were enticed into this business by the "buy/hold" strategy, but as they came to learn about the market branched out into different sides of the business.  I count myself among this number...

Exactly! Its a market just like any other. TLG just happens to be "The Fed". There are so many ways to invest. But first one must have a goal, without that, floundering will commence.

I disagree, I don't think a goal is necessary at all. I certainly don't have one, beyond one day building 10179. I've evolved much the same way Barca did. Now I fund my long term investments through gains from flips. If I had stuck to my previous ambition of simply stockpiling sealed sets, I'd be missing out on all the fun I'm having now.

I suppose I do have a goal after all: Lego is fun, and I want to get my hands on as much as I can, as cheap as I can.

I disagree, I don't think a goal is necessary at all.

 

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Agreed - frankly, I bet there are a lot of people that were enticed into this business by the "buy/hold" strategy, but as they came to learn about the market branched out into different sides of the business.  I count myself among this number...

 

 

I was enticed by a buy and hold strategy but with a slightly different angle.  My goal was to build inventory throughout the year on buying below MSRP, then unloading it in during the holidays.  This will be my first season for doing it, so we will see how it goes.  But if these Lego clearance opportunities happen several times a year at the big box stores, then I will likely be flipping throughout the year starting in 2014.  With slowly building the inventory for Christmas 2014.

The best for me is when people sell lots on craigslist look up the price here and want that amount for their set. Usually its incomplete no box no instructions and they don't account for the eBay fees if they sold their item online but they want that Brickpicker price.....

 

Love the site but its not all gravy... 

You are right about that...  There is a CL post saying selling a 4148 nearly new condition, and I send an email asking is the box sealed? and then the reply was no it's open and built but was never played, and asking for 200.  I wonder how they come up with the number???

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It's true. I buy and sell Lego willy-nilly I don't have a ROI in mind, or a timeframe, or even a strategy, really. If I see a deal I can make money from, I might buy. Sometimes I buy to sell and end up keeping instead, or vice versa. Some months I sell 3 sets, other months I sell 23. Sometimes I profit, sometimes I sell at a loss because I want to re-invest. Really I'm just trying to explore all the possibilities between collector and reseller.

It's a hobby, for me. What's the point of a hobby if the hobby has a point?

It's true. I buy and sell Lego willy-nilly I don't have a ROI in mind, or a timeframe, or even a strategy, really. If I see a deal I can make money from, I might buy. Sometimes I buy to sell and end up keeping instead, or vice versa. Some months I sell 3 sets, other months I sell 23. Sometimes I profit, sometimes I sell at a loss because I want to re-invest. Really I'm just trying to explore all the possibilities between collector and reseller.

It's a hobby, for me. What's the point of a hobby if the hobby has a point?

Diabolos80, next time you feel like selling a set for much less than MSRP, could you send me a PM first ?  We may be able to work out a deal

Failing to plan is planning to fail.

Raichu, it's not as odd as you might think. I'll buy, say, a Palace Cinema, build it, sell it, and roll that money into something else.

This point has been made before, but apparently it bears repeating: there are all kinds of ways to enjoy Lego. Some of them make money. Others are just for the fun.

Raichu, it's not as odd as you might think. I'll buy, say, a Palace Cinema, build it, sell it, and roll that money into something else.

This point has been made before, but apparently it bears repeating: there are all kinds of ways to enjoy Lego. Some of them make money. Others are just for the fun.

 

I was being dead serious.  I understood what you were saying, I was trying to save you some eBay fees

I was being dead serious.  I understood what you were saying, I was trying to save you some eBay fees

Consider it done, then. Ebay fees DO make it hard to justify a 'rental' set. After fees and shipping on my palace cinema, my cost to build it was $48. 13% saves on fees would have resulted in a $26 cost instead.