I have seen a bunch of Lego city sets on sale - I know a lot of them are remakes like the police stations over and over again. Are there any types which really are great investments though? Seems like a lot of the sets go down in value after they are released really quickly.

Boats are great as well. And most are pretty cheap.

I try to break these things down into by subtheme and by set.

 

Coast Guard has typically been a strong performer, so when the time comes you should consider picking up a couple sets. While last Harbor line did wonderfully, this one is no comparison in set quality (if you want proof of this, check out the 2007 Harbor and compare it to the current one).The Great Vehicles line is probably going to have mixed results because of the radical differences in the sets, but one you should watch for is the ambulance (4431).t is already at 5 bucks above retail, and the previous ambulance (7890), which retailed for 10 dollars, is now sitting pretty at 40. Airplane sets historically have done well but if they appear too much in the future it could hurt growth.

 

Fire and Police are, as everyone knows, riddled with remakes every year, so the only time you should be really digging into them is when it is a "different" set. With fire specifically, this is especially tricky as it hasn't seen the variation that the police line has recently with the Elite and Forest police. However, there are going to be winners in each of these subthemes, you just have to find them. Basically how you find these gems goes something like this...

 

Per line, generally, it is the most iconic set of the line (rather than just the largest) and then the "exclusive" of the line, sometimes them being the same. We saw this with Coast Guard when the Patrol Ship and Helicopter did well (being iconic), but the store exclusive, 4210 Coast Guard Platform, did even better, tripling its value. The crop combine, clearly the best and most iconic model of the Farm line, did the best out of farming and most recently, The limousine and copter did great and Robber's Hideout spiked in value after its quiet EOL. So let's take the hideout as an example and dissect what made it a winner in City. First, we have the obvious exclusiveness of the set combined with a shorter lifespan than most Police sets. Next, there is the uncommon brown bear, which found itself in this set and the Forest Police Station. And of course there is the popularity of the police subtheme Last, the set is quite unique. It stands out, I mean, there are 50 helicopters, cars and motorbikes for the police to use but this is (likely) the first time we got a cabin for the crooks to hide in. Uniqueness + popularity + exclusivity is the best recipe for a winner in City.

 

So what sets should you be picking up in these sales?

If all the currently available City sets were 50% off, I would be hopping on these sets from their respective themes:

 

The Ambulance from the great vehicles theme. The set is backed up by the surprisingly good performance of the previous ambulance and is already showing gains. We see police and fire every year, but not medical. The recycling truck, if there are any that escaped previous buyers, is a great set to invest in but it may be too late for that game.

 

A little bit of everything from the Coast Guard theme, but I would go a bit more bullish on the patrol boat. Of course, keep in mind the sets are new and probably aren't on sale.

 

From the mining line, which is likely being clearanced everywhere, for now I would say go in mostly on the 4x4 truck, it is the only one of the theme that is selling for above its worth. I think the mine is going to take a while to appreciate with it being on sale for so long at so many places.

 

Get the forest police station. This set is one of the few to have the bear and is the most unique police station released by Lego thus far. It doesn't have any bragging rights when it comes to size, but I can imagine people still paying a pretty penny for this guy five years down the road.

 

The problem with space is that the largest set should have been the shuttle, but nonetheless, I think that both the shuttle and the rocket will do well in their time. A couple of buggies couldn't hurt too as they are selling for above retail.

 

For Harbor, the Power Boat Transporter is already picking up speed, with the Marina and Harbor hovering below retail (both should do okay... but not the best). If for some reason there is a fishing boat straggling around on the shelves, put it out of it's misery - this guy has a 27% CAGR.

 

Stay away from fire (in Lego and in life ). The only sets I see doing really good in the future are the ones from the 2013 line, mainly the motorbike and burnt house.

 

Overall, I would describe the City theme as safe, but only occasionally lucrative. Just my two cents. Hope it helped. 

^ nice post Brian. 

 

There are some hidden gems in the City theme.  It's an area that really rewards researching.

From the recent Coast Guard release, I really like 60015 Coast Guard Plane. It's the only new release that isn't a remake, and it comes with a slick fishing boat too. Everything about this set is ringing alarms for me. It was released separately from the rest of the line, and it's the only unique one of the line. It looks awesome, and the one or two pontoon boats that have been done before have done well. This set will be making its way to my wish list soon as I don't want to be caught without any...

From the recent Coast Guard release, I really like 60015 Coast Guard Plane. It's the only new release that isn't a remake, and it comes with a slick fishing boat too. Everything about this set is ringing alarms for me. It was released separately from the rest of the line, and it's the only unique one of the line. It looks awesome, and the one or two pontoon boats that have been done before have done well. This set will be making its way to my wish list soon as I don't want to be caught without any...

Oh yeah, forgot about that guy! Huge potential there, it is receiving some really good reviews it seems people like the rugged fishing trawler a lot. Could be the next Robber's Hideout. So far with Coast Guard I'm only invested in the 4WD, but I'm hoping to add a patrol boat, helo, and a couple of planes. I love the coast guard subtheme, the colors are perfect. The helicopter from the first series is one of my absolute favorite sets.