We all know Cafe Corner / UCS Millenium Falcon and many other sets from four or so years ago have done great after being retired.  But are there any winners we can pick up now (i.e. not retired) that have a very high likelihood of delivering 400% return in 4 years?

 

In other words, if you could only buy one set in huge quantities this year to get the biggest return in 4 years, which would it be?

 

I have some thoughts, but don't want to bias the thread before it starts, so take it away, folks!

I would think the SSD or Haunted House.

Tower Bride, anyone agree?

I don't think it will happen with anything currently widely available in the 4 years allowed. The only chance for those kinds of returns will have to be a limited run set that sneaks in and out of production like The Zombies.

None of the sets!

Reason: much bigger production of sets by TLG, longer life cycle of the sets, much more lego educated consumer/investor/collector/reseller...whatever you want to call it. 

I think if anything has the chance, its the Haunted House. Only if it retires at the end of this year. But I think it will see 40% CAGR.

Given a 4 year time frame it's hard to see any current sets reaching 400%.  Maybe some of the Monster Fighters theme Like Zombies or Haunted House.  Recently retired sets like the UCS Shuttle or the Ninjago sets like NRG Jay or Ice Dragon might make that benchmark.  Some of the CUUSOO sets as well, depending on their lifespan at retail.

 

Interestingly there are at least a dozen sets that were released in 2007, the year of the 10179, or later, that have outperformed it.  Cafe Corner is one, but 3 others are even ahead of that...

Can the new crawler get to 800? Doubt it. Haunted house get to 700....perhaps. Better off getting a potter train for 150 @

And selling for 400 in a couple years. Or a potters alley for a deuce and getting 500 in a couple years. I am thinking of buying these retired sets if the right deals pop up.

If the camper or camel retire soon...I could see these at 400 in 4 years. Helms deep at 90 very well may see 360 in a couple few years.

I could see a 40 dollar weathertop going for 160 in 2 years... new falcon for 99 might fetch 350 in a couple few years. We dont KNOW but with the sets above well bought...you will NOT lose money...which is the number one goal in speculative investing. Limit your losses.

Captain America's Avenging Cycle, must be with all the talk around here about it.

I would think the SSD or Haunted House.

 

Haunted house? lol .. 

Haunted house? lol .. 

 

Why is that funny? Do you not think it will do well?

At most double ... but that set is not geting retired anytime soon

Now this Post is a good one, i see most agree on the haunted House, but why am I getting kicked around on me have 33 of them and going for more. And i hope it does not retire until next year, because I want to have 50 or more of them. But really he are the ones that will bring in the huge big bucks. Ed

1-Tower Bridge

2-haunted House

3-SSDS

4-Death Star, Most don't agree, but this set will be at least $600 or more the first year after it retires.

Now this Post is a good one, i see most agree on the haunted House, but why am I getting kicked around on me have 33 of them and going for more. And i hope it does not retire until next year, because I want to have 50 or more of them. But really he are the ones that will bring in the huge big bucks. Ed

1-Tower Bridge

2-haunted House

3-SSDS

4-Death Star, Most don't agree, but this set will be at least $600 or more the first year after it retires.

 

I am with you here completely. I have several of the first two. Targeting SSD next and then Death Star next year probably

Now this Post is a good one, i see most agree on the haunted House, but why am I getting kicked around on me have 33 of them and going for more. And i hope it does not retire until next year, because I want to have 50 or more of them. But really he are the ones that will bring in the huge big bucks. Ed

1-Tower Bridge

2-haunted House

3-SSDS

4-Death Star, Most don't agree, but this set will be at least $600 or more the first year after it retires.

I agree there are money to be made on these sets after EOL.  However, do you think any of these will be at 400% ROI in 4 years after EOL per OP's question ?

Now this Post is a good one, i see most agree on the haunted House, but why am I getting kicked around on me have 33 of them and going for more. And i hope it does not retire until next year, because I want to have 50 or more of them. But really he are the ones that will bring in the huge big bucks. Ed

1-Tower Bridge

2-haunted House

3-SSDS

4-Death Star, Most don't agree, but this set will be at least $600 or more the first year after it retires.

 

All big sets, all big bucks for sure.  I agree that they will all do very well post EOL, not hard to pick those.  There are also some smaller sets that I think will do just as well if not better percentage wise, plenty of sleepers around that the savvy investor will make a lot of money on by doing the research.

 

For smaller investors where there are space/capital restrictions I would suggest holding off buying sets that are not going to retire in the next year.  Much better off investing the capital into sets that will retire sooner and/or sets already retired and still growing nicely.  I can see though that if your target is 50 or whatever then accumulating them slowly over time is the way to go, especially with the recent tightening of quantity limits from Lego and possibly other retailers.

All big sets, all big bucks for sure.  I agree that they will all do very well post EOL, not hard to pick those.  There are also some smaller sets that I think will do just as well if not better percentage wise, plenty of sleepers around that the savvy investor will make a lot of money on by doing the research.

 

For smaller investors where there are space/capital restrictions I would suggest holding off buying sets that are not going to retire in the next year.  Much better off investing the capital into sets that will retire sooner and/or sets already retired and still growing nicely.  I can see though that if your target is 50 or whatever then accumulating them slowly over time is the way to go, especially with the recent tightening of quantity limits from Lego and possibly other retailers.

What sets out right now do you prefer?

What sets out right now do you prefer?

 

I listed some in a post above.  I'd take any of them over a Death Star right now (I wish I could sell mine for cost and put the cash into a retired 10212 or even 10174 until the month before the DS retires - which is when exactly...).

 

Those 4 sets will do well and I have some of them and will get more most likely closer to confirmed EOL, but I also like to diversify.  I have to factor in the ability to sell them in a smaller marketplace than most.

I picked the Tower Bridge,Haunted House, SSDS, Death Star First, nobody know's how high these sets will go, and that goes for alot more sets that will also be big. But the key is if you haven't gotten any of these yet, well get on the ball.

All big sets, all big bucks for sure.  I agree that they will all do very well post EOL, not hard to pick those.  There are also some smaller sets that I think will do just as well if not better percentage wise, plenty of sleepers around that the savvy investor will make a lot of money on by doing the research.

 

For smaller investors where there are space/capital restrictions I would suggest holding off buying sets that are not going to retire in the next year.  Much better off investing the capital into sets that will retire sooner and/or sets already retired and still growing nicely.  I can see though that if your target is 50 or whatever then accumulating them slowly over time is the way to go, especially with the recent tightening of quantity limits from Lego and possibly other retailers.

 

Something for the space issue - the tower bridge and Haunted house actually aren't incredibly spacey. They are heavy, but not huge.

 

The SSD and DS are a different story though. Lol

Something for the space issue - the tower bridge and Haunted house actually aren't incredibly spacey. They are heavy, but not huge.

 

The SSD and DS are a different story though. Lol

 

And then you have the B-Wing in the same sized box as the TB

Finding space for a couple of these sets are essential IMO.

Something for the space issue - the tower bridge and Haunted house actually aren't incredibly spacey. They are heavy, but not huge.

 

The SSD and DS are a different story though. Lol

 

Yes indeed, the space under my bed has been gobbled by those two big boys!

I've been finding clearance Batcaves for $49 at Walmart for a while.  I could see that realistically reaching $200 some day, especially around Christmas time when it is retired and people pay a premium for everything.  I am also counting on the Tower Bridge to do well.  Second largest piece count set in LEGO history, how could it fail?

At most double ... but that set is not geting retired anytime soon

 

I don't think I said it was retiring soon, just that it would generate big gains once retired, just as the SSD. I see it closer to $ 500 or so.

I dont see how ANY set currently available could reach 400% retail value in 4 years after retirement....

 

Sure some might be extraordinary lucky with 400% ROI but that is because they found it DIRTY cheap....

 

But for relevant discussion we need to use 400% retail which is do not see any set pulling it off EVER again...

 

Ok maybe a few smaller ones but here I am talking about sets with RETAIL value of 100$ and higher.

Now this Post is a good one, i see most agree on the haunted House, but why am I getting kicked around on me have 33 of them and going for more. And i hope it does not retire until next year, because I want to have 50 or more of them. But really he are the ones that will bring in the huge big bucks. Ed

1-Tower Bridge

2-haunted House

3-SSDS

4-Death Star, Most don't agree, but this set will be at least $600 or more the first year after it retires.

 

Got a question for you emz .. have you actually sold any older retired sets that you purchased 30+ and made profit. Just wondering how you can afford all these legos