From an investment POV you are correct.  This set will probably not sell well and may be heavily discounted this post-Christmas.  I also doubt it will be widely carried in-store at places like Target which will make finding clearance deals on it difficult.  

 

I personally think it's a lackluster set.  Unless you are a Hobbit fan it is rather nondescript with only the dragon being recognizable.  Basically it's a nice parts pack on clearance.  The Smaug itself isn't that impressive when you look at it being a molded toy and not a build able object.  Lego could have given us something specially with a giant brick built Smaug.  They instead gave us a glorified minifgure aimed at the collectors market.

The set will be discounted because all non-exclusives are discounted.  Time will tell if it is popular or not, plus, how does anyone really know what is a good seller or not?   It might be a hit among kids or old farts like me.  Amazon has the same clearance deals as Target, if not better.  What about Target.com?   Walmart.com?  All these sites will carry the Hobbit theme and will discount it, so it won't be difficult to find on sale.

 

If you really want to examine LOTR and Hobbit sets, many are quite hacked up and unrecognizable.  Besides the Tower of Orthanc, the Pirate Ambush and Unexpected Gathering, most of the sets are uninteresting.  Most of the sets are filled with grey and brown bricks that help build stone walls or wooden structures.  Quite boring.  At least this set does have a unique maxifigure which is unique to the LEGO world and might be the largest one yet to date.  Also, these sets are meant to be played with, so a buildable Dragon was not an option.  

 

Am I saying this set will be the next Cafe Corner...No, but it will be a solid performer and a good investment if you can buy it at a discounted price.  

Ofc I invest... Im about to pick Orthanc x2 in 14 days when I leave for LEGO store trip .....

 

I just happen to do it on a far smaller number than you.....

As they say on the internet...Pics or it didn't happen.  

I'm pretty sure that Jabba's Palace was marked down to the low-$80's for a while here in the US. There was plenty of time for people to grab the set for a low price. 

 

mid-$70s during a couple of US-wide Target sales and their 5% red card   Their stores also started price matching in Jan 2013 which helped people pay in the $70s.

 

Amazon's lowest price was $81.99 on Nov 26, 2013.

Seeing some closer photos is definitely softening my position on this set. I'll be checking out a video review when one becomes available. They should totally offer that base as a two sided playmat. One side with the gold and the other for the battle of the five armies would add playability to this last wave. Doubtful it will happen though.

It does make it look better.  The dragon looks better when you get other angles.  It should still be heavily discounted at some point. I'm guessing in the low 70's range at least.

It does make it look better. The dragon looks better when you get other angles. It should still be heavily discounted at some point. I'm guessing in the low 70's range at least.

Yeah once it's $80 or below I ll prolly fold and buy one for my hobbit collection since I have every set up to date

The set will be discounted because all non-exclusives are discounted.  Time will tell if it is popular or not, plus, how does anyone really know what is a good seller or not?   It might be a hit among kids or old farts like me.  Amazon has the same clearance deals as Target, if not better.  What about Target.com?   Walmart.com?  All these sites will carry the Hobbit theme and will discount it, so it won't be difficult to find on sale.

 

If you really want to examine LOTR and Hobbit sets, many are quite hacked up and unrecognizable.  Besides the Tower of Orthanc, the Pirate Ambush and Unexpected Gathering, most of the sets are uninteresting.  Most of the sets are filled with grey and brown bricks that help build stone walls or wooden structures.  Quite boring.  At least this set does have a unique maxifigure which is unique to the LEGO world and might be the largest one yet to date.  Also, these sets are meant to be played with, so a buildable Dragon was not an option.  

 

Am I saying this set will be the next Cafe Corner...No, but it will be a solid performer and a good investment if you can buy it at a discounted price.  

 

 

What about Helm's Deep???

Lego have become much better at understanding the part out value of a set.   This is great example; a lot of people on the AFOL sites have been complaining that they expected more figs. But with 3 or more additional figs, particularly if they

What about Helm's Deep???

Helm's Deep is a overrated set IMO.  What's so special about it?  It's a great set to part out for castle pieces, but nothing sets it apart.  There are many better places to invest your money.  

Helm's Deep is a overrated set IMO.  What's so special about it?  It's a great set to part out for castle pieces, but nothing sets it apart.  There are many better places to invest your money.  

 

For me Helm's Deep owns Pirate ship easily in terms of display value.... its also unique type of Castle in LEGO form up to date..... 

Glad I didn't buy too many 70403 on clearance at Wal Mart.

For me Helm's Deep owns Pirate ship easily in terms of display value.... its also unique type of Castle in LEGO form up to date..... 

Listen Castleman, any castle or object that remotely looks like a castle will interest you.  To me, Helm's Deep looks like a haphazard mess.  I love a nice castle myself, but Helm's Deep ain't it.  

For me Helm's Deep owns Pirate ship easily in terms of display value.... its also unique type of Castle in LEGO form up to date..... 

 

I love Helm's Deep too.  Sorry Ed.

I liked my Helms Deep as a display piece, but when I put Harry Potter castle next to it during a re-arrangement, I must say, it made me think less of it. Didn't look as good as it did before.....

I liked my Helms Deep as a display piece, but when I put Harry Potter castle next to it during a re-arrangement, I must say, it made me think less of it. Didn't look as good as it did before.....

I cannot disagree there are better sets. But when your like me and you buy lotr and hobbit items to keep pristine, never open and collect every variation you are satisfied with all of the sets, I am a lotr hobbit follower of all things and as one of those we like it all.

I love Helm's Deep too.  Sorry Ed.

How can you even call it a castle?  It doesn't even have four walls?  Jeesuss!  Also, where is the damn mountain?   What an incomplete joke!

How can you even call it a castle?  It doesn't even have four walls?  Jeesuss!  Also, where is the damn mountain?   What an incomplete joke!

I can tell your passionate about it. I wasn't touting it is a castle. I just love to have it, have it boxed pristine, and I have one to admire while I watch the movie. You take what you can get. Maybe I need to have you chill and send you a SSD for trade for your stock of helms deeps. . That is a joke...

I can tell your passionate about it. I wasn't touting it is a castle. I just love to have it, have it boxed pristine, and I have one to admire while I watch the movie. You take what you can get. Maybe I need to have you chill and send you a SSD for trade for your stock of helms deeps. . That is a joke...

LOL...I'm not passionate about it.  I like to bust on Alcarin when I get a chance.  I love the LOTR/Hobbit, but I think most of the sets are subpar.

LOL...I'm not passionate about it.  I like to bust on Alcarin when I get a chance.  I love the LOTR/Hobbit, but I think most of the sets are subpar.

 

Not really busting me.... I agree that most of the sets are subpar if not all of them, but then again I understand every LOTR set should cost 400$ min to be okish in my eyes

I built Helm's Deep finally and it is cool but it really is just a big wall of gray. If anything it would be called a rampart instead of a castle since the entire build forms a defensive wall. Now you can arrange each section in a way to where the whole thing is closed off like an actual castle though. In any case, it was a fantastic parts set for castle building with a few exclusive characters.

I built Helm's Deep finally and it is cool but it really is just a big wall of gray. If anything it would be called a rampart instead of a castle since the entire build forms a defensive wall. Now you can arrange each section in a way to where the whole thing is closed off like an actual castle though. In any case, it was a fantastic parts set for castle building with a few exclusive characters.

Ed must have motivated you to build yours today!

See, I learned what a rampart was today. I guess if you took 4 Helm's Deeps, you could build a kick butt castle.

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Ed must have motivated you to build yours today!

Haha, I built mine a month ago and only just took it down a week past. I do want to build something from it though but still working on that.

See, I learned what a rampart was today.

Helm's Deep is NOT a castle.  It is a mighty fine wall, but it is still a WALL. Even with 9471 added

 

Chima's Lion Chi Temple is a much better Castle than 9474

I agree that Helm's Deep isn't great on it's own.  But it did introduce mature building techniques compared to the usual bucket style castle we get.  If you want to see something interesting check out what this AFOL did:  http://www.eurobricks.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=89205

 

Lego could release something similar in the $200 price range.  But they won't without some mega-license involved.

I agree that Helm's Deep isn't great on it's own.  But it did introduce mature building techniques compared to the usual bucket style castle we get.  If you want to see something interesting check out what this AFOL did:  http://www.eurobricks.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=89205

 

Lego could release something similar in the $200 price range.  But they won't without some mega-license involved.

That looks great.

And in answer to all the discussion about HD not being a good castle set. Who ever said it was a castle?