The reason I ask this question is because I'm wondering if its too late to jump on the Lego investing bandwagon??? It is so tempting to do so with the popularity of Legos right now, and seeing some of the great returns on some sets after EOL.

 

However, when will the investor supply out number the consumer demand? Its seems to me that a great number of the posts on Brickpicker are members talking about how they have 40 of this set, and 60 of that set and so on, and how cheap they got each set.  With only a limited number of places to unload all these sets, coupled with the increasing number of investors buying and stock piling huge quantities. Not to mention Lego is mass producing many of their sets these days. Wont this in time dilute the market and cause the secondary market prices to fall?  All these sets will eventually flood the markets after EOL, and investors/sellers will be competing against each other causing price wars and market value deflation. If there is a Lego bubble will it be caused by investors and Lego fan/collectors turned investors?

 

 

 

 

In my mind the profits will always be there...more investors just means that the prices just go up slower. (If it is a problem.)  Once a set is retired...eventually they will all be sold.

 

 

EDIT When I think about worst case scenario, I just imagine having to hold sets longer than I wanted to.

via Terapeak (new LEGO sets and parts for last 30 days) eBay sales was made around 2-3 millions (that's how big secondary market now). Best 10 LEGO resellers on eBay made total sales from 45k to 15k per month each.....

New Lego Investors are dropping like flies, alot of guys think they buy a couple hundred dollars of sets and make a thousand real quick, take the B-wing, guys were selling them for $125 and up, these guys lost money, its like that everyday people think its so easy to just start buying lego sets and make the big bucks, but when they find out they have to wait for a set to retire and then they may have to wait 2 years or more to make the big bucks, well these guys are out. If you have the right sets you will always do good, thats IF you buy the right sets. Get Those Tower Bridges, Haunted Houses, SSDS,Epic Battle, ETC.

New Lego Investors are dropping like flies, alot of guys think they buy a couple hundred dollars of sets and make a thousand real quick, take the B-wing, guys were selling them for $125 and up, these guys lost money, its like that everyday people think its so easy to just start buying lego sets and make the big bucks, but when they find out they have to wait for a set to retire and then they may have to wait 2 years or more to make the big bucks, well these guys are out. If you have the right sets you will always do good, thats IF you buy the right sets. Get Those Tower Bridges, Haunted Houses, SSDS,Epic Battle, ETC.

agreed

New Lego Investors are dropping like flies, alot of guys think they buy a couple hundred dollars of sets and make a thousand real quick, take the B-wing, guys were selling them for $125 and up, these guys lost money, its like that everyday people think its so easy to just start buying lego sets and make the big bucks, but when they find out they have to wait for a set to retire and then they may have to wait 2 years or more to make the big bucks, well these guys are out. If you have the right sets you will always do good, thats IF you buy the right sets. Get Those Tower Bridges, Haunted Houses, SSDS,Epic Battle, ETC.

I agree. Just like anything it's a "fad" and people who don't know what they are doing with either learn or get burned and tell all their friends that it doesn't work.

I do not think so. I think with the Internet and sellers being able to sell sets in places consumers can not easily access we will  be ok. Consumption goes up and down, fads come and go, new kids are born everyday. There will be slower times, but all in all I think there will always be a market. Today's consumers are also very spontaneous. They do not put much thought into purchasing.. especially gifts. Many are so busy, they wait to the last minute and then impulsively purchase to meet a deadline or make someone happy.

 

LEGO has been getting alot of attention lately (Bloomberg video today) about their Brand. They are extremely smart and there is a reason they are so successful. Their brand I honestly believe will continue to grow. Some say LEGO is timeless, I personally believe as of right now, they are extremely strong in the market and holding their own against digital media entertainment. 

I also don't think there are too many investors, most people just don't have the patience. Like Emazers said, many people were jumping on the half price B-Wing wagon and upon realizing they couldn't flip the set for instant profit sold it at a loss. The amount of people that 40 or 50 of a set is few and far between, you need the capital for one which few people have, and equally important the space. Like pickleboy has also pointed out it just means waiting longer to see decent profit IF there was suddenly to much supply. More people each and every day come out of their dark age and they're going to want either the sets they grew up with or wanting as kids or just themes that apply to them. Plus the people that are coming out of their dark age are suddenly in their 30's and can afford to spend a decent chunk of change on a set that means something to them.

The vast majority of LEGO sets are purchased by children.  When the kids stop buying, that is the time to start worrying.

I think it needs to be pointed out this is a website that people from all around the world visit. Each person locality has different prices and demands. Not all of us live in America and have access to there retail prices, most are inflated. Most people only like to buy locally or country specific to save on shipping. These things need to be considered when looking to invest and like shares they take awhile to mature.

I'm usually a naysayer in these discussions, but I'll be brief.  No product or collectable has ever been able to sustain the type of growth that LEGO has been experiencing over the last few years.  While growth may continue, there is no way that Lego's sales can double every three years, and there's no way most retired sets could increase at that rate either.

I was thinking the same. Looks like there are more and more Lego investors now, and I only started purchasing Lego as an investment a month ago. I already find it really hard to find good prices (in Canada!) and the sets I have, I have to resist the urge to open it up and build them haha!

There's no reason for lego to stop growing and being extremely popular. There will always be a demand for sets once they retire. even looking at sets coming out next year like the new batmobile; once that retires it's not realistic to think that they will continue to make new flash sets every year forever. that figure and set will be valuable eventually. and when the stock from investors gets depleted, the prices will continue to rise. it's just a waiting game. there are also great investment opportunities in limited edition sets like the new 4x4. no way that will still be $200 when it is sold out no matter how many investors there are. so I say hop on the bandwagon asap.

I believe further down the road there will be difficulty in moving the ultra expensive sets, as more adult collectors become aware of simply finding them earlier on instead of trying to pick them up later with EOL inflation. I personally believe it is extremely unlikely we will be seeing $1000 sets. The smaller sets though, people will continue to buy and round out collections

I tend to agree with Emazers and TheDarkness.  New investors will likely become frustrated when they don't realize immediate returns.  Investors need to be patient to buy and patient to sell.  I made many mistakes when I first started investing, including buying sets that weren't a great deal or getting good deals, but on lousy sets.  It's not easy to realize that 10% off a HH or an Orc Forge is a buy, but 30% off a Goblin King Battle is a pass.  I don't think there will be many 5 baggers anymore, but there will be plenty of doubles.  10188 should be a decent case study.  Large (suspected) investor supply and a high demand set.  If it languishes after retirement then I would have some concern.     

The reason I ask this question is because I'm wondering if its too late to jump on the Lego investing bandwagon??? It is so tempting to do so with the popularity of Legos right now, and seeing some of the great returns on some sets after EOL.

 

However, when will the investor supply out number the consumer demand? Its seems to me that a great number of the posts on Brickpicker are members talking about how they have 40 of this set, and 60 of that set and so on, and how cheap they got each set.  With only a limited number of places to unload all these sets, coupled with the increasing number of investors buying and stock piling huge quantities. Not to mention Lego is mass producing many of their sets these days. Wont this in time dilute the market and cause the secondary market prices to fall?  All these sets will eventually flood the markets after EOL, and investors/sellers will be competing against each other causing price wars and market value deflation. If there is a Lego bubble will it be caused by investors and Lego fan/collectors turned investors?

YES. Everyone should quit buying legos for any purpose other than playing with. NOW! I'm starting the anti-investing propaganda now...

Yes there are.  You should all open your sets and start building Lego houses like James May:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5TLDFNpw08

 

This will create a new form of investment - Lego Real Estate!    

Yes there are.  You should all open your sets and start building Lego houses like James May:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5TLDFNpw08

 

This will create a new for of investment - Lego Real Estate!    

Coolest. Thing. Ever.

I was bummed the slippers didnt hold up. I so wanted to build me a pair!

Love the lego house Grolim. I wonder what the actual cost was in lego to build it. 

Love the lego house Grolim. I wonder what the actual cost was in lego to build it. 

 

I don't want to think what it would have cost in Australian dollars back when it was created!

It is very cool, and someone has way too much time on their hands

Anyone who got into Lego investing after me is too late, the market is now at capacity

Really, though, it might seem like the ebay lego market is huge and there's way too much supply, but you have to take into account that the market is split between thousands of sets, minifigures, bulk lots, accessories, promos, alarm clocks, pens, etc. At any given time there are never more than about 200 listings for any one new set, unless you're dealing with a jabba's palace debacle or something. There are millions of people who want Lego, and more join them every day. How do you think you got here?

I'll also add that in six months of Lego reselling, I've never once had to wait longer than 2 weeks for an item to sell. I'm not making 50% profits overnight, but I am making profits.

If every person who buys Lego holds their purchases for later resale then I would worry but that will never happen. So many members here are hobby investors as well as probably everyone on BrickLink and look at how well that site has done over the years. Talk about diversity, Lego can be sold as a box set conveniently containing all included parts for sale in a single container or take out those very same pieces and sell each individually. Don't forget parts over time can actually lose their clutch power and need to be replaced with a brand new replacement. It's a consistent cycle of rinse & repeat.

....Wait, did I just contribute to another bubble thread? Ah dang it, I promised myself I wouldn't do this anymore! :frantics:

there is a lot of people just going to lego events for the exclusive set/polybags

If every person who buys Lego holds their purchases for later resale then I would worry but that will never happen. So many members here are hobby investors as well as probably everyone on BrickLink and look at how well that site has done over the years. Talk about diversity, Lego can be sold as a box set conveniently containing all included parts for sale in a single container or take out those very same pieces and sell each individually. Don't forget parts over time can actually lose their clutch power and need to be replaced with a brand new replacement. It's a consistent cycle of rinse & repeat.

....Wait, did I just contribute to another bubble thread? Ah dang it, I promised myself I wouldn't do this anymore!

 

hehe sucked in. To this perennial thread    (this is the closest emoticon to a tree).

 

Seriously though how many people belong to this site, and how many have been made aware of investing by this site in the last year. A few 10,000s? This sounds like a lot but worldwide I doubt it will not affect prices that much. But if it does and your sets only go up by 50% in 3 years rather than the 100-200% now its still a better investment than the bank, or most shares.

 

I am wondering though when the second Lego Investment site will open up in direct competition to this site.

Someone will jump on the bandwagon.

I personally think the worst LEGO investing has to fear is world wide War or a huge war in Europe or huge riots....

 

or overall drop of purchase power...

 

I also think that we will see change of investing type...

 

now usually you picked the biggest set of the line or the exclusive set multiple and made profits... but soon the time will come when the sleeper (aka 2nd biggest sets) will do far better than big ones... then it will shift again...

 

and so on and on.

 

but the key of LEGO investing is buy the lowest possible. If you manage to find the lowest price on WORLD! you cannot fail unless you buy Atlantis etc

Seriously though how many people belong to this site, and how many have been made aware of investing by this site in the last year. A few 10,000s? This sounds like a lot but worldwide I doubt it will not affect prices that much. But if it does and your sets only go up by 50% in 3 years rather than the 100-200% now its still a better investment than the bank, or most shares.

You're notion inspired me to try making a quick pie chart but the numbers between potential investors and projected world population was so great, it didn't work and gave me errors. I tweaked it every which way from Sunday and the best percentage I could get was an entire 1%. Out of the possible seven billion people living on Earth currently, there maybe barely enough to equal one whole percent.

Of course, nothing is set in stone and there isn't any real way of knowing the precise amount for either value as well as potential buyers but still even under the best (or worst) of circumstances, the investors "don't amount to a hill of beans in this crazy world".

the key of LEGO investing is buy the lowest possible. If you manage to find the lowest price on WORLD! you cannot fail unless you buy Atlantis etc

Certainly. Those Atlantis sets will drown you!

Lower entry fee gives more breathing room to roll with the punches as value goes up and down like rollercoaster as you said.