Greetings:  I have a small collection of HP sets (3 Burrows, 2 DA, 2 Hogwarts, 2 Hog Express, 1 Hagrid Hut, and a couple Quid Matches).  I know this question is routinely asked and answered but I couldn't find it before posting.  I've been checking ebay every week or so for the last couple of months, and with the exception of the burrow and maybe express, I haven't seen the prices going up too much.  What are the thoughts on when to sell these sets?

 

Much appreciated!

This is going to sound like a smartass answer, but I really do mean this professionally. You should sell any set when you can get your desired rate of return. If you don't have a desired rate of return, get one.

One question I have to ask is... Did you pay retail for these items or did you buy them on the secondary market? Because I own a few of the sets you are naming and when I check their prices a smile shows up in my face.

 

If you want to sell them, close to the Holidays is a nice time, but for the HP sets, almost anytime is good as you are certain to earn some profits given you bought them at under or equal retail price. Even if you bought them shortly after EOL or slightly over retail, the profits from these sets should compensate.

Thanks...I did pay retail for these over the last couple of years.  I like the Christmas idea as well.

 

Regarding rate of return, I don't think it's a smartass answer but a good one.  I don't really have one though in these cases.  I would counter though that even if I had a rate of return and each set was at that rate of return, it doesn't mean I should sell right now necessarily.  Like with any investment I want to maximize my return and as always that is the trick -  when to sell.  I'm just trying to get an idea of what others think these sets will do.

 

It's tempting to unload the Burrows right now, but they also continue to increase.

This is going to sound like a smartass answer, but I really do mean this professionally. You should sell any set when you can get your desired rate of return. If you don't have a desired rate of return, get one.

I see what you're saying, and completely agree, you need an ideal selling price, but I think he is searching for optimal selling times?  Correct me if I'm wrong.  I guess my question would be, when do you think the optimal time to sell HP will be?  I am unsure as to how much these sets will rise during the holiday months?  What does anyone think Hagrid's Hut will go for in November?

I see what you're saying, and completely agree, you need an ideal selling price, but I think he is searching for optimal selling times?  Correct me if I'm wrong.  I guess my question would be, when do you think the optimal time to sell HP will be?  I am unsure as to how much these sets will rise during the holiday months?  What does anyone think Hagrid's Hut will go for in November?

 

I think an ideal selling price and an optimal selling time is essentially the same thing - in both cases you're trying to gauge selling at its peak value.  Emes advice is a good - set a target and sell when it hits it.  This doesn't mean you have to set a low price, just that you should be systematic with your sales strategy.  Look at other similar HP sets (there have been a number of releases) and think about how much you want to make.  There is no wrong answer.

 

That said, you could set a strategy to wait until Christmas to sell, but check out this blog post from FC Barcelona.  It may make you think twice about the Christmas strategy...

I see what you're saying, and completely agree, you need an ideal selling price, but I think he is searching for optimal selling times?  Correct me if I'm wrong.  I guess my question would be, when do you think the optimal time to sell HP will be?  I am unsure as to how much these sets will rise during the holiday months?  What does anyone think Hagrid's Hut will go for in November?

 

I think it's the same thing. The time to sell is when I can get my desired percentage return. As far as the ideal time, I do think there's room for predictions in that area, and yes, I have a tendency to think that these sets would command a higher price during the holidays compared to other times of the year.

 

In my personal case I most likely won't have any HP sets left by the holidays. Those have long since surpassed my desired rate of return. Our last Hogwart's sold recently, and I sold 1 of my two remaining Knight Busses. Now I just have the 1 Knight Bus left and a couple of the smaller sets and some of those polybags (train and the one from Target). BTW, the last couple of Hogwart's that I had I paid slightly above retail at a local small toy store, and was still able to quickly flip them for a significant return.

There is no ideal time....

 

you can only put IDEAL time to sell in retroactive selling.

 

some people claimed Millenium Falcon ideal sell time is when it hits 1500$...

 

look where it is now.

 

its all about your percentage.

 

if you bought set A for 50$ and you want 100% return you sell it when it sells for about 125 and include free shipping.

 

And then you dont go looking back 6 months after and smash your head but look on new ideas to make profit.

 

its that simple!!!!!!!

There is no ideal time....

 

you can only put IDEAL time to sell in retroactive selling.

 

some people claimed Millenium Falcon ideal sell time is when it hits 1500$...

 

look where it is now.

 

its all about your percentage.

 

if you bought set A for 50$ and you want 100% return you sell it when it sells for about 125 and include free shipping.

 

And then you dont go looking back 6 months after and smash your head but look on new ideas to make profit.

 

its that simple!!!!!!!

 

I also think something that needs to be said is that to make a profit, you NEED to sell.  If you keep sitting on something that goes up in value, it is still worth something, but until you liquidate it, you haven't profited.  A simple concept, but I continually battle myself when it comes to selling something.  I have to convince myself that the money I make can go towards further investments.

With the recent fee changes on eBay it's really a fire and forget thing at this point. Just calculate what you need to make to hit your desired return, and list the item as a BIN with GTC. Rinse and repeat.

I also think something that needs to be said is that to make a profit, you NEED to sell.  If you keep sitting on something that goes up in value, it is still worth something, but until you liquidate it, you haven't profited.  A simple concept, but I continually battle myself when it comes to selling something.  I have to convince myself that the money I make can go towards further investments.

 

Really a great point, Spener.  Paper profits are not realized profits.  Just ask people that were holding Enron stock in 2000.

I also think something that needs to be said is that to make a profit, you NEED to sell.  If you keep sitting on something that goes up in value, it is still worth something, but until you liquidate it, you haven't profited.  A simple concept, but I continually battle myself when it comes to selling something.  I have to convince myself that the money I make can go towards further investments.

 

yep... it sucks when LEGO is investment and a hobby, you grow to like the set and want to keep it... even if you have 1 opened

Thanks all....great perspective and information.  Glad to be part of the community here.

I think it depends on what you want to do with the money.  If you need it for other things then sell for sure.  If you are just looking to keep the money in Lego investment then the question really boils down to whether you think you can take the money (after selling fees are deducted) and invest it into other sets that may make higher returns than just keeping your capital tied up in the HP sets.  

 

Maybe slowly selling 1 or 2 of the sets to start might be a good idea just to try and diversify a little as well.

sell, earn and regret

Greetings:  I have a small collection of HP sets (3 Burrows, 2 DA, 2 Hogwarts, 2 Hog Express, 1 Hagrid Hut, and a couple Quid Matches).  I know this question is routinely asked and answered but I couldn't find it before posting.  I've been checking ebay every week or so for the last couple of months, and with the exception of the burrow and maybe express, I haven't seen the prices going up too much.  What are the thoughts on when to sell these sets?

 

Much appreciated!

sell one burrow, then sell all the rest in november/december

otherwise try to sell one of each at a CRAZY price 

I've now sold 6 out of my 7 Hogwarts Castle (4842).  Bought in in September 2012 for

I've now sold 6 out of my 7 Hogwarts Castle (4842).  Bought in in September 2012 for

This is the way I've been looking at it.  I have some sets that I'm sure will be worth more in the future, but if I reinvest that money, I will hopefully have a greater ability to grow that capital.

 

I've been selling my HP, and a lot more consistently as of the past few weeks.

 

This is why CAGR is so important. For instance lets say in another 5 Years your burrow gets over $250. Its return per year though has gone way down, so you would be better off investing in a set that you would expect to grow faster over that time period. If it continues to grow at a 30+% CAGR though, then it makes sense to keep.