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Retiring Soon - open speculation

To continue an earlier thread, here are the sets listed on S@H as "Retiring Soon":

 

Friends - Stephanie's Cool Convertible, Olivia's Speedboat, Mia's Bedroom, Series 1 foil packs

Duplo - Train Starter Set, Doctor's Clinic, Emergency Helicopter

Creator - Apple Tree House

Lego Games - Ninjago, Pirate Plank

Chima Speedorz - CHI Battles, Ring of Fire, Target Practice, CHI Waterfall

Technic - Mini Container Truck

LOTR - Gandalf Arrives, Orc Forge

CMF - Series 9

Architecture - Sugnyemun

Marvel Super Heroes - Captain America's Avenging Cycle

Star Wars - Endor Rebel Trooper and Imperial Trooper Battle Pack, Planet Bespin & Twin Cloud Car, Planet Endor & AT-ST

 

Nothing earth-shattering.  Orc Forge surprises me the most.

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20 minutes ago, Legojona said:

You mean the girl that surrounds your post?! :D

 

yep - left myself open for the sandwiching.  sigh.  

in other retiring speculation, eiffel tower is going on month 6 of being out of stock unorderable at korean shop at home website.  mid year eol imminent?

 

6 minutes ago, cladner said:

yep - left myself open for the sandwiching.  sigh.  

in other retiring speculation, eiffel tower is going on month 6 of being out of stock unorderable at korean shop at home website.  mid year eol imminent?

 

Could be 1 in 1 out against Arc de Triomphe, but I reckon it will overlap till the winter.

BTW it is available now max 2.

Edited by Val-E

49 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Could be 1 in 1 out against Arc de Triomphe, but I reckon it will overlap till the winter.

BTW it is available now max 2.

nooooh!  my sign is disproven.  now i have nothing.

75158 - Rebel Combat Frigate is all over the place in great numbers at Legoland, FL. It will take a long time to clear these at full price. I'd expect similar performance as 75025.

76046 is now out of stock at EU shop, leaving Rey as last set standing at half price.

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

76046 is now out of stock at EU shop, leaving Rey as last set standing at half price.

Regarding 76046...

tenor.gif

On 4/11/2017 at 5:49 PM, exciter1 said:

75158 - Rebel Combat Frigate is all over the place in great numbers at Legoland, FL. It will take a long time to clear these at full price. I'd expect similar performance as 75025.

Any of those on-sale?

Just now, jaisonline said:

Any of those on-sale?

Not yet, but I think 75025 went 33% off there eventually.

Could it be going soon?

 

dddd.png

Edited by Legojona
Change the image

A question from a newbie. I notice some recent Lego Friends sets have been retired but far older sets are still available. Is this purely down to demand?

1 hour ago, litefoot said:

A question from a newbie. I notice some recent Lego Friends sets have been retired but far older sets are still available. Is this purely down to demand?

"How long is a piece of string?" Comes to mind. 

Nexo Knight getting killed off was a very poorly sourced rumour, which has been debunked by the designers of the theme. So seems like it is still set for the projected 3-year run.

Remember when Ninjago was suppose to retire after only a year or 2? Pepperidge remembers...

On 4/21/2017 at 10:29 AM, stlux said:

Nexo Knight getting killed off was a very poorly sourced rumour, which has been debunked by the designers of the theme. So seems like it is still set for the projected 3-year run.

Lego seems to have lost faith in it. There is a dearth of Nexo Knights sets in the latest US catalog that came out in January--one page with two sets and a small set in the Easter gift section. This is a big reduction from the past couple of catalogs.

Ahhh... the old Lego catalog tea leaves trick

Continuing the discussion on retiring exclusives, this year we are likely getting between 7 and 9 new exclusives again.

Exclusives still on the market right now with their release date and my star selection based on possible retirement in 2017.

Sep 2015: ToA: Sold out US. ***** Replaced by new Movie exclusive, poor seller.

Feb 2014: Simpsons House: ***** Licence over?

Mar 2015: Kwik E Mart. ***** Licence over?

Mar 2015: SHIELD **** Poor seller?

Jan 2015: Slave 1 **** new UCS sets this year

April 2015: Tie **** Poor seller?

Sep 2011: VW T1 **** Has to happen sometime, right?

Oct 2010: Tower Bridge. **** see above

Oct 2015: Winter Toy Shop ****

Aug 2014: Mini ***

Mar 2013: Palace Cinema ***

Jan 2014: Parisian Restaurant **

Jan 2016: GBHQ ** Licence over?

Mar 2016: Batcave **

Jun 2016: Minecraft Village ** replacement Mountain

Jun 2015: Ferris Wheel **

Aug 2015: Ferrari F40 **

May 2016: Assault on Hoth **

Big Ben, Brick Bank, Detective Office, Assembly Square, VW Beetle, Holiday Train all 1 star.

 

Edited by Val-E

of all the sets you have listed, the only one i would bet money on retiring this year is palace cinema.  the rest seem up in the air.

Edited by cladner

2 minutes ago, cladner said:

of all the sets yo u have listed, the only one i would bet money on retiring this year is palace cinema.  the rest seem up in the air.

I have doubts. PS got to 69 months and GE 63. PC is at 52 months now.

 

8 minutes ago, Val-E said:

I have doubts. PS got to 69 months and GE 63. PC is at 52 months now.

 

yes but that was during the days when the hoard actually gave a $hit about modulars and the hoarde would continually chew up supplies thereby continuing the production cycle - at least that was the group's theory - demand created due to purchasing by resellers prolonged production life.   its been at least a year since there were any stock issues with Palace Cinema so maybe the sales have died down enough and the hoard left it alone for dead that TLG will do the wise thing and pull the plug. the other 2 i would say should go are TB and T1 just because of how long but yeah - its all a big crap shoot.

Edited by cladner

My stats were wrong, PS made it to 68 months but GE and FB were 58 and 55, respectively. I am now using sold out dates, not official EOL, as that sometimes takes months to come through. PC is now at 52 so it could go either way.

I think a lot exclusives sell worse than PC does and that TLG are having lower sales across the board this year. Whether that will make them more agile at retiring sets remains to be seen but it is a very long list and there are several more new ones to come.

ToA definitely seems to be on the way out before anything else.

Edited by Val-E

I think Tower Bridge & VW T1 shouldn't be on the list as why retire these apparently hot sellers? SOH went before TB so I think the Mini will go before T1. I just hope that the future is golden for these, not brown ;-)

4 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

I think Tower Bridge & VW T1 shouldn't be on the list as why retire these apparently hot sellers? SOH went before TB so I think the Mini will go before T1. I just hope that the future is golden for these, not brown ;-)

We´ve had 9 new  large exclusives for the last 3 years and only 2014 had more retirements than new sets. Something has to give and at some point these two sets will have a sales slow down. We saw them both reduced last Black Friday, which could be a sign.

10 hours ago, Val-E said:

Continuing the discussion on retiring exclusives, this year we are likely getting between 7 and 9 new exclusives again.

Exclusives still on the market right now with their release date and my star selection based on possible retirement in 2017.

Sep 2015: ToA: Sold out US. ***** Replaced by new Movie exclusive, poor seller.

Feb 2014: Simpsons House: ***** Licence over?

Mar 2015: Kwik E Mart. ***** Licence over?

Mar 2015: SHIELD **** Poor seller?

Jan 2015: Slave 1 **** new UCS sets this year

April 2015: Tie **** Poor seller?

Sep 2011: VW T1 **** Has to happen sometime, right?

Oct 2010: Tower Bridge. **** see above

Oct 2015: Winter Toy Shop ****

Aug 2014: Mini ***

Mar 2013: Palace Cinema ***

Jan 2014: Parisian Restaurant **

Jan 2016: GBHQ ** Licence over?

Mar 2016: Batcave **

Jun 2016: Minecraft Village ** replacement Mountain

Jun 2015: Ferris Wheel **

Aug 2015: Ferrari F40 **

May 2016: Assault on Hoth **

Big Ben, Brick Bank, Detective Office, Assembly Square, VW Beetle, Holiday Train all 1 star.

 

Surprised you only rate Palace Cinema as a 3 star, would be surprised if it doesn't go at the end of the year, they'll retire one of the modulars and I can't see any of the others going.

I can see the Batcave jumping the queue to retire, but hanging round for ages after getting a retiring soon tag.

 

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